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ALCS Game Four: Rangers @ Yankees

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It’s moment we’ve all be waiting for. Or dreading. Yeah, probably dreading. For the first time in 17 day, A.J. Burnett will make a start for the Yankees, and unfortunately it comes when they’re down two games to one in the ALCS. I guess that’s better than being down three-zip, though.

A.J.’s awful season has been well chronicled, so there’s no point is going through all that nonsense again. Luckily the Rangers are starting Tommy Hunter, who’s probably the best possible matchup for Burnett. His high-contact, low-strikeout profile is one the Yanks tend to feast on, so in theory they should be able to score some runs to back their starter. Unfortunately with the way the offense has been going, putting that theory into practice will not be easy. No, it won’t be easy at all.

Here are the lineups…

Rangers
1. Elvis Andrus, SS
2. Michael Young, 3B
3. Josh Hamilton, CF
4. Vlad Guerrero, DH
5. Nelson Cruz, RF
6. Ian Kinsler, 2B
7. David Murphy, LF
8. Bengie Molina, C
9. Mitch Moreland, 1B

Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA)

Yankees
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Curtis Granderson, CF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robbie Cano, 2B
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Lance Berkman, DH
8. Brett Gardner, LF
9. Frankie Cervelli, C

A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA)

Fair or not, A.J.’s got a chance to erase a season’s worth of ugly starts right here, right now. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07pm ET and can be seen on TBS as usual. Enjoy.

Hoping that Hunter can help wake up the offense

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(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Last night’s Game Three loss wasn’t just an ass-whoppin’, it was a historical ass-whoppin’. It was the worst shutout loss in Yankee postseason history, and the three baserunners were the fewest they’ve ever had in a playoff game. Cliff Lee was already one of just five pitchers to strike out ten-plus Yankees in a playoff game (the other four are or will be in the Hall of Fame), but yesterday he became the first man to do it twice. There’s no shame in losing to a pitcher of Lee’s caliber, but it’s not as if the Yankee offense set the world on fire in the first two games of the series either. Therein lies the real problem.

Brett Gardner’s second half crash back to Earth (.232 AVG since the All Star break despite a .311 BABIP) has predictably continued into the postseason, except now he can’t rely on mediocre pitchers to walk him once every six trips to the plate to remain productive. He also seems to have resorted to the desperate act of sliding into first now, even though it’s been scientifically proven to slow you down. Derek Jeter has struck out in five of his last six plate appearances, including three straight on swings-and-misses at fastballs up in the zone yesterday. Mark Teixeira … I don’t even want to talk about him. His second straight terrible postseason is again propped up by one big homer against the Twins, par for the course during the worse non-rookie season of his career. Nick Swisher, Alex Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada are a combined 5-for-34 with three walks in the series. Outside of Robbie Cano and Curtis Granderson, the offense simply isn’t getting it done this postseason.

The good news is that if there’s one pitcher on the Rangers’ staff that can help ignite an offense, it’s Tommy Hunter. The burly righthander pitches to contact (his 5.8% swinging strike rate ranked 133rd out of 146 pitchers with at least 100 IP this year) and gives up lots of homers (1.48 HR/9, ranking 136th), two things the Yankees need a little help with right now. They’ve faced Hunter a few times in the past but just once this season, getting to him for two runs in five innings of work. They’ll need more than that tonight, I can assure you.

Tonight’s Game Four isn’t a must win, but the Yanks have to play with that kind of sense of urgency just to get themselves out of this funk. Perhaps the lineup changes – Lance Berkman in at DH, Curtis Granderson up to the two-spot – that come with facing a righty will help, but those changes are really nothing more than cosmetic. The starting nine they trot out there on a given day is more than enough to win, but right now very few are playing up to their abilities. Several players just look straight up old to be quite honest, and that’s a bad thing, because reversing age-related decline is pretty much impossible.

Cliff Lee was brilliant last night, let’s not take anything away from him, but the Yankees haven’t hit at all in this series save for one inning in Game One. If they lose tonight, A.J. Burnett will almost undoubtedly be the goat, but if the offense can’t muster anything off Tommy Hunter, then I’m not sure they deserve to win anyway. They Yanks are set up for a breakout offensive game, and championship caliber clubs have to find ways to win pitching matchups like this, especially at home.

The other 24 Texas Rangers

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Almost all of the attention before tonight’s Game Three has been paid to Cliff Lee, and rightfully so. The guy is arguably the best pitcher in baseball and has impeccable postseason credentials, so he’s earned it all of the recognition and then some. But Lee is just one guy, one of 25 Rangers the Yankees will have to beat tonight, and as we’ve already seen they’re a very capable club.

Lee isn’t the Yanks’ only problem tonight, but he is the biggest. Here’s some of the stuff the Yanks really need to tighten up…

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Elvis Andrus

The leadoff guy is the one that sets it all up for everyone else in the lineup, and so far Andrus has done a bang up job doing exactly that. He’s reached base five times in the two games, and in fact he’s reached base to lead off both games and come around to score each time. The Yanks simply can’t allow a singles hitter (.036 ISO this year … .036!!!) like Andrus to keep beating them like this.

Bottom Of The Order

Before the series I wrote that the bottom of Texas’ lineup was a bit of a soft spot that the Yanks could potentially take advantage of, but of course the 7-8-9 hitters have killed them. The mash-up crew has featured Jeff Francoeur, David Murphy, Matt Treanor, Bengie Molina, Julio Borbon, Mitch Moreland, and Jorge Cantu, and they’ve combined to go 7-for-22 (.318) with a pair of walks in the two games, complicating things with the lineup about to turn over.

Seriously, get these guys out. They hit .261/.316/.409 in 1,680 plate appearances as a group this year, and even that is inflated by Murphy’s strong season. This cast of characters should not be making life this difficult for the Yankees at the bottom of the order.

Keeping Josh Hamilton Down

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

This is one of the few things the Yankee pitching staff has been doing right so far. Hamilton, the likely American League MVP, came back from rib issues late in the year and did next to nothing in ALDS (two singles, two walks, six strikeouts), but of course he hit a three-run homer in an 0-2 count in his first plate appearance of the ALCS. The Yanks have taken him right out of the equation since then however, and have done so by simply refusing to pitch to him. Hamilton’s hitless since the homer but has walked five times, twice intentionally, and hasn’t come around to score once.

Six of his ten plate appearances in the series have come against righthanders, partly due to CC Sabathia’s early exit in Game One, but he figures to see plenty of southpaws from here on out. That’s good news, because he was merely very good against lefties this season (.346 wOBA) compared to otherworldly against righties (.490 (!!!) wOBA). Hamilton’s the one guy in the lineup you don’t want to beat you, and so far they’ve done a good job of that. It’s everyone else that’s giving them trouble.

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Chances are Cliff Lee will give the Yanks hell tonight. It’s what he does, and it’s basically unavoidable. The Yanks can’t fall into the trap of focusing solely on him though, because the other 24 guys on the Rangers’ roster have shown that they will take advantage if given the opportunity to hurt you. Andy Pettitte and the bullpen have to do their parts on the mound, and that’s the one aspect of the game Lee won’t be able to control.

A Nostalgic subway ride to the ALCS

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With another round of playoff games set for the Bronx this week, New York City Transit announced that it will run the Nostalgia Train from Grand Central to Yankee Stadium for each of the ALCS games. Trains leave approximately an hour before first pitch and arrive at the stadium well before the game is set to begin. For more on these special — and fun — trips in vintage subway cars, check out my coverage on Second Ave. Sagas.

ALCS Chat

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