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River Ave. Blues » Osiel Rodriguez

An Important Year in the Farm System [2019 Season Preview]

March 26, 2019 by Mike

Florial. (Presswire)

Two years ago the Yankees had arguably the top farm system in baseball. Uncharacteristically, they traded veterans for prospects at the 2016 trade deadline, and several of their own players took big steps forward with their development. Gleyber Torres came over in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar? All originally drafted or signed by the Yankees.

That monster farm system of two years ago has become a powerhouse MLB team. The Yankees surprisingly won 91 games in 2017, not-so-surprisingly won 100 games in 2018, and now they go into 2019 on the very short list of realistic World Series contenders. They’ve graduated or traded many top prospects, and have tumbled down the farm system rankings as a result:

  • Baseball America: 20th
  • Baseball Prospectus: 12th
  • Keith Law: 19th

“Being ranked as everybody’s top farm system isn’t our goal. Our goal is to be ranked as winning the World Series,” said amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to Greg Joyce last month. “… Everything’s a cycle in this thing. You get to a point where, if you’re going to try to win, you end up trading prospects. So we’ve traded quite a few guys over the last few years to help us acquire talent to help us win at the big league level, and that’s what we’re there to do. We’re in one of those cycles now where we gotta dump some more guys into the system.”

As the big league team contends this summer, the farm system will be in something of a rebuild, in that they have a plethora of young low minors prospects looking to take that step toward becoming the next wave of great Yankees prospects. The high-end upper minors talent isn’t there like it has been the last two years, and that could be an issue come trade deadline time. Time to preview the year ahead in the farm system.

Top Prospects Who Could Help This Season

There is only one: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga. In fact, the Yankees’ No. 2 prospect is set to join the rotation in a few days, after CC Sabathia’s five-game suspension ends. That is almost certainly a temporary move with Sabathia due to return in mid-April and Luis Severino hopefully sometime in early-May. Loaisiga is going to join the Yankees soon though, and that gives him a chance to help the team and force the club to keep him around longer.

Of course, Loaisiga has a long injury history and very limited experience (184.1 career innings!), plus he has never thrown a pitch in Triple-A, so he would presumably benefit from some Triple-A time. I imagine he’ll be returned to the minors at some point. Loaisiga has a quality three-pitch mix as well as good control, plus he seems unflappable on the mound, which are good traits for a young pitcher. Point is, Loaisiga is the only high-end upper minors prospect we figure to see in the Bronx this year.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help This Season

OF Estevan Florial, the Yankees’ top prospect, will begin the season on the injured list after breaking his wrist crashing into the outfield wall this spring. I suppose the good news is he’ll only be in a cast three weeks, meaning his recovery may not be as long as you’d expect. Three weeks in a cast seems to indicate he could be back in games sometime in May. That would be ideal. We’ll see.

The injury is unfortunate because Florial has a clear flaw in his pitch recognition — “I’m a young player. It’s tough to know what pitch to select. Try to know the pitch I can drive, and what I can’t, too,” Florial said to Brendan Kuty last month — and the only way to improve on that is with game reps. There’s no substitute for seeing live action pitching. Florial missed time with wrist surgery last year, so he has a lot of catching up to do. Once healthy, he’ll likely go to High-A Tampa or Double-A Trenton. Either way, we won’t see Florial in the big leagues this summer.

After Florial and Loaisiga, the next five best prospects in the farm system are all teenagers: C Anthony Seigler, OF Everson Pereira, OF Antonio Cabello, RHP Deivi Garcia, and RHP Roansy Contreras. On one hand, hooray for having so many very talented teenagers. On the other hand, none of those guys will come close to sniffing the big leagues. Seigler, Pereira, and Cabello may not even see full season ball this year, and Contreras could spend the entire season with Low-A Charleston.

Garcia made one Double-A spot start at the end of last season but he is unlikely to start this season at that level. Not after making only six (excellent) starts with High-A Tampa. Seems to me Deivi will return to Tampa for a few weeks before being bumped back up to Trenton. His best case scenario will be a late-season cameo with Triple-A Scranton. If we see Garcia in the big leagues this year, either something went very right (he really broke out) or very wrong (everyone got hurt).

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help This Season

Tarpley. (Presswire)

The Yankees will have at least one of their non-top prospects on the Opening Day roster. LHP Stephen Tarpley, who pitched well last September and was great this spring, will be in the bullpen. He definitely has a chance to carve out a long-term role this summer. In all likelihood though, Tarpley will ride the shuttle up and down a few times. That’s just how it goes for a young reliever with options, especially when he’s the last guy in the bullpen.

Another reliever we could see at some point: RHP Domingo Acevedo. Lindsey Adler says Acevedo pitched in relief in minor league camp this spring and the Yankees wouldn’t do that unless he was moving into the bullpen full-time. I’m definitely down with this. Acevedo has struggled to stay healthy as a starter and he still hasn’t developed his slider into a reliable third pitch. Let him air it out for an inning at a time with the big fastball (and changeup) and there’s a chance very good things will happen. I’m looking forward to seeing Acevedo in short relief stints.

RHP Chance Adams and RHP Mike King are the top two Triple-A depth starters at the moment, though King suffered a stress reaction in his elbow early in camp, and is still working his way back. He’s expected to join the RailRiders in early May. Once he does, King could jump ahead of Adams on the call-up list. He had a monster 2018 season statistically and, at least prior to the injury, had firmer stuff and control than Adams, who’s taken a step back the last two seasons. Still, Adams is on the 40-man roster, so we’ll see him work shuttle duty at some point.

Double-A hurlers RHP Trevor Stephan, RHP Garrett Whitlock, and RHP Nick Nelson probably will not see the big leagues this summer. They’re not on the 40-man roster yet — Stephan and Whitlock don’t have to be added to the 40-man until after next season — and there are a few guys ahead of them on the depth chart, but, anytime you begin the season in Double-A, you have a chance to play in MLB. They will, they do. Pitch well in Double-A and they’ll find themselves in Triple-A in short order, and force a call-up conversation.

The Mike Tauchman pickup and Tyler Wade demotion makes it less likely we will see IF Thairo Estrada this year, or at least see him anytime soon, especially after a lost season last year. A few weeks (months?) worth of at-bats with Triple-A Scranton is what Estrada needs right now, but, if the Yankees have a need at the MLB level and he’s the best option, they will call him up. I imagine we’ll see Thairo as at least a September call-up this summer.

Breakout Candidates

This is where all that young low minors talent comes into play. Guys like Seigler, Pereira, Cabello, and Contreras are prime breakout candidates who could put themselves into the top 100 prospect discussion after the season. (Deivi broke out last year, I’d say.) Pereira and Cabello in particular are very high upside players who could very well rank 1-2 in the farm system in a few months. They’re that good and that talented.

This year’s Pereira and Cabello, meaning the highly regarded international signings set to make their pro debut, should be OF Kevin Alcantara and RHP Osiel Rodriguez. Alcantara ($1M bonus) stood out for his hitting ability when he signed and he’s already growing into some power. Rodriguez ($600,000) boasts a deep power arsenal and, like many Cuban pitchers, he throws from a variety of arm angles to create deception.

Hard-throwing RHP Luis Gil kinda sorta broke out last year, and he might have the best fastball in the farm system. He’s upper-90s regularly and has a high spin rate on everything. Gil is the quintessential modern pitching prospect. RHP Juan Then and RHP Yoendrys Gomez are other young low minors guys who stand out more for their know-how and pitchability than lighting up the radar gun. That said, neither guy is short on stuff.

A few levels higher, the Yankees are finally set to turn 2017 first round pick RHP Clarke Schmidt loose. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year and pitched well in limited action. The Yankees will not be reckless with Schmidt — they don’t have him penciled him for 180 innings or anything — but he’ll finally get a chance to hold down a rotation spot and show what he can do. He’s been an afterthought since being drafted because of the Tommy John surgery. Schmidt’s kinda like adding a new prospect to the system all together.

Second tier outfield prospects like OF Josh Stowers and OF Anthony Garcia may not have the pure upside that Pereira and Cabello offer, though they do bring a lot to the table. In Garcia’s case, that means a lot of power. A lot. He’s a switch-hitter who can hit the ball a mile from both sides of the plate. Stowers is more well-rounded and will impact the game a lot of different ways. Offensively, defensively, on the bases, etc. He strikes me as a sneaky good breakout candidate.

Between international free agency and trades (Gil, Stowers, and Then were all acquired in trades), the Yankees have stocked the lower levels of the minors with exciting talent, and it was all by design. They picked up these kids very early in their careers — over the winter they traded for a pitching prospect yet to appear in a pro game — and will try to develop them into the next wave of top prospects. That’s the plan. The farm system may lack upper minors talent. In the low minors though, forget it. The Yankees are stacked, and that equals a small army of breakout candidates.

Returning From Injury

Technically, RHP Albert Abreu finished last year healthy, though injuries have given him trouble since coming over from the Astros in the Brian McCann trade. The power four-pitch mix is impressive. The lack of control and lack of durability are not. More than anything at this point, Abreu needs reps so he can work on refining his game. A full healthy season would be welcome in 2019. It could also land him a big league call-up at some point.

RHP Freicer Perez is a more traditional injury comeback story. He made six ugly starts last season before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The good news? Perez only had bone spurs removed. His labrum, rotator cuff, and capsule are all intact. A lost season is a lost season though, and this year Perez will look to get back on track with a healthy shoulder. He went into last year as one of the top prospects in the system. Getting back to that level after shoulder surgery remains possible.

The forgotten pitching prospect in the system is RHP Glenn Otto, the Yankees’ fifth round pick in 2017. He made two starts with Low-A Charleston last year before having season-ending surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder. Yikes. When healthy, Otto showed a good low-to-mid-90s fastball with a hammer high-spin curveball that is seemingly allergic to bats. There were questions about his durability and changeup even before the surgery, but, even if Otto is a reliever long-term, he could be a good one. His coming out party is set for this summer.

Make or Break Year?

Holder. (Presswire)

The 2014-15 international spending spree, while well-intended, has worked out very poorly. Florial is far and away the best prospect to come out of that signing class and he was a small bonus guy later in the signing period, not a headliner. Many of those 2014-15 kids have already washed out. Others, like 3B Dermis Garcia and SS Hoy Jun Park, still have some prospect value. Not much, but some.

Garcia’s calling call remains (and always will be) his power. He moved down the defensive spectrum to first base last year — apparently he’s going to give third base another try this year — and plans to turn him into a two-way player were apparently put on hold. Dermis did throw bullpen sessions late last season but he never appeared in a game as a pitcher. Alas. Garcia will move up to High-A Tampa this year after two seasons with Low-A Charleston. Another year of contact and defensive issues mean you can probably close the book on his days as a serious prospect.

After Florial, Park probably has the best chance to reach the big leagues among 2014-15 signees. He’s a very good defensive middle infielder who draws a lot of walks and can steal bases, but is short on power and exit velocity. Power is tough to project these days because of changes to the baseball, so perhaps we shouldn’t ding Park too much. He has a chance to rebuild some prospect stock with Double-A Trenton this year. The concern is advanced pitchers will knock the bat out of his hands. This is a big year for Park.

IF Kyle Holder has Major League ready defensive tools, but he hasn’t hit much in his career to date, and we haven’t seen much progress either. To be fair to Holder, he dealt with serious injury (broken vertebrae) and off-the-field matters (his brother passed away) last season, so we should cut him a break on the lack of development. That said, he is a soon-to-be 25-year-old defensive wiz with little to offer at the plate. Another year without much offensive progress and it’ll be time to look ahead to other infield prospects.

I think OF Isiah Gilliam has reached make or break status as well. He’s closing in on his 23rd birthday and saw marked declines in his power output, his walk rate, and his strikeout rate after moving from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa last season. As a non-elite bat-only corner outfielder, it doesn’t take much to get left behind. Gilliam has to rebound with a strong season this year, likely back with Tampa, to avoid becoming an afterthought.

Prospects I Am Excited About

Gosh, there are lots. Seigler, Pereira, and Contreras are at the top of the list. I also can’t give up on RHP Luis Medina yet, even after he walked 46 batters in 36 rookie ball innings last year. Medina turns only 20 in May, and he lights up the radar gun with his fastball and has a knee-buckling high-spin curveball, and I just can’t give up on that despite the extreme control problems. Medina’s going to be a long-term project and I am willing to be patient because the upside is so great.

OF Raimfer Salinas should be in the Pereira and Cabello group — Salinas ($1.85M) received a larger signing bonus than Pereira ($1.4M) and Cabello ($1.35M), which tells you how much the Yankees like him — but finger and knee injuries cut short his pro debut last year. When healthy, he features an advanced approach at the plate with some power, as well as very good defensive chops. Salinas probably belongs in the “Breakout Candidates” group. I really like him. He has a lot of ability.

OF Pablo Olivares has long been a personal favorite with his “do everything well but nothing exceptionally” skill set. RHP Frank German and RHP Tanner Myatt are two 2018 draftees I like for different reasons. German has already gained velocity as a pro and features a nice little slider. Myatt is a huge (6-foot-7) extreme hard-thrower (up to 101 mph) with an occasionally great curveball. He reminds me a bit of Kyle Farnsworth, which I know will drive some people nuts, but Farnsworth played 16 years in the big leagues as a late-inning reliever. That would be a heck of an outcome for an 11th round pick like Myatt.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Of course they will. The Yankees are a win-now team, so if when they need help at the trade deadline, they will trade prospects in an effort to get over the hump. They did it the last two trade deadlines and there’s no reason to think they won’t do it again this year. That’s the entire point of a farm system. To help address big league roster needs, either by graduating prospects to the show, or by using them as trade chips.

To me, Nelson stands out as a potential trade candidate. He will be Rule 5 Draft after the season and I get the feeling he falls into the same category as Dillon Tate and Josh Rogers last year. The “good prospect the Yankees don’t really know what to do with who is on the 40-man roster bubble” group. The other Double-A arms like Abreu, Stephan, Whitlock could all become trade candidates given the club’s lack of high-end Triple-A talent. Double-A starters are the next best thing.

Even before the injury, I don’t think the Yankees would’ve hesitated for a second to trade Florial in the right deal. Would they give him away? No way. But Florial is their best chance to acquire an impact player on July 31st. As long as he comes back from the wrist injury well, his trade value should remain intact. The Yankees professed their love for Justus Sheffield right up until they traded him. I could see the same happening with Florial.

The Yankees traded 15 prospects in the days leading up to the last two trade deadlines. Some were big names (Blake Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, etc.) and many were second and third tier guys (Josh Rogers, Billy McKinney, Luis Rijo, Zack Littell). I think the Yankees are at the point where no prospect is off-limits. I thought Gleyber Torres was untouchable as it gets two years ago. Now? There’s no one in the system like that. Not even close.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

Because the system is built mainly around pitching and very young low minors prospects, the Yankees have a boom or bust farm system right now. If the pitchers stay healthy and some of those teenagers figure it out, this could again be one of the top systems in baseball, and I mean as soon as next spring. The Yankees have gotten pretty good at developing players, thankfully. The chances of a farm system breakout in 2019 aren’t small.

Then again, if some of those pitchers get hurt — I have 18 pitchers in my top 30 prospects list and normal attrition suggests a few of them are going to feel something that requires a lengthy shutdown, that’s just baseball — and those teenagers need more than one or two pro seasons to hit their stride, the Yankees will again have a system ranked in the bottom half of the league next year. It’s not the end of the world, but a great farm system is a heck of a lot more fun than a mediocre one.

“I believe our system is one of the stronger ones in the game. It’s just the timing of everything. (The top talent) just happens to be at the lower levels. We are very pitching deep with a lot of high-end young arms,” said Brian Cashman to Randy Miller last month. “I’m not saying the system rankings are wrong. I will tell you this: As long as our guys stay healthy and develop the way we think they’re capable of developing, the system rankings are going to be radically different next year.”

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: 2019 Season Preview, Albert Abreu, Anthony Garcia, Anthony Seigler, Antonio Cabello, Chance Adams, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Domingo Acevedo, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, Frank German, Freicer Perez, Garrett Whitlock, Glenn Otto, Hoy Jun Park, Isiah Gilliam, Jonathan Loaisiga, Josh Stowers, Juan Then, Kevin Alcantara, Kyle Holder, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Mike King, Nick Nelson, Osiel Rodriguez, Pablo Olivares, Raimfer Salinas, Roansy Contreras, Stephen Tarpley, Tanner Myatt, Thairo Estrada, Trevor Stephan, Yoendrys Gomez

Thoughts on MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects for 2019

February 21, 2019 by Mike

Abreu. (Presswire)

Earlier this week the prospect gurus at MLB.com released their annual top 30 Yankees prospects list. The other scouting publications released their Yankees prospect lists within the last few weeks as well. As always, MLB.com’s list is entirely free. The list, the scouting reports, the scouting grades, the whole nine. It’s a great resource.

MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects last month. Here are their top ten Yankees prospects and their place on the top 100 list:

  1. OF Estevan Florial (No. 57 on the top 100)
  2. RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 66 on the top 100)
  3. RHP Albert Abreu
  4. RHP Deivi Garcia
  5. RHP Clarke Schmidt
  6. C Anthony Seigler
  7. OF Everson Pereira
  8. RHP Trevor Stephan
  9. OF Antonio Cabello
  10. RHP Roansy Contreras

“While the Yankees’ farm system isn’t as overflowing with big league-ready talent as it has been recently, they do have an impressive stockpile of high-ceiling/high-risk youngsters,” writes Jim Callis. “… New York is one of the best organizations at helping pitchers improve their velocity and spin rates, giving it an intriguing wave of overpowering arms that has yet to surface in the big leagues.”

Noticeably absent from MLB.com’s top 30 list is RHP Freicer Perez, who ranked eighth last year. Six disaster starts and season-ending shoulder surgery will do that. I dropped Perez to 19th on my top 30 list. Anyway, here are some thoughts on MLB.com’s top 30 list, or rather some thoughts on the information included in the scouting reports.

1. Putting numbers on Florial’s tools. Most of the chatter about Florial this winter revolved around his pitch recognition, or lack thereof. And yes, his pitch recognition is a significant issue. It must improve for him to have a long and productive big league career. Fortunately he turned only 21 in November and has time to get better.

All the attention being paid to Florial’s pitch recognition can make it easy to forget what makes him such a quality prospect. MLB.com’s 20-80 scouting scale grades give him the best grade in four of the five tools among the top 30. Look at this:

  • Power: 55 (tied with C Josh Breaux, OF Anthony Garcia, OF Ryder Green)
  • Speed: 65
  • Fielding: 60 (tied with OF Everson Pereira)
  • Throwing: 65

As a reminder, 20 on the 20-80 scale is terrible, 80 is great, and 50 is average. Florial is above-average in four of the five tools and a full grade better than average in three of the five. His 45 hit tool is what prevents him from being a truly elite prospect, but damn, four above-average tools? It’s easy to lose sight of that. If he is able to conquer his pitch recognition issues — a big IF, of course — Florial can be a big time all-around impact player.

2. Are Medina’s issues mental? RHP Luis Medina has the most electric arm in the system. It’s easy upper-90s gas with a hammer curveball and a good changeup. The kid just has no idea where the ball is going. He walked 46 batters in 36 innings with Rookie Pulaski last year, or exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced. Medina also uncorked a dozen wild pitches, so yeah, control is an issue.

In MLB.com’s scouting report, they note “some observers believe his strike-throwing issues are more mental than physical.” They’re not the only publication to mention this either. FanGraphs said something similar in their recent top Yankees prospects list. From FanGraphs:

Medina’s issues aren’t physical — his delivery is fine and his arm stroke is clean. Instead, the problem appears to be mostly mental. He’ll throw well in the bullpen only to have things will snowball for him in game situations. One source described his issues as stemming from a need for greater mental maturity and to not be so hard on himself, which are exactly the kinds of traits that come with general social maturity.

Huh. Most of what I’ve read attributed Medina’s control issues to a delivery he struggles to repeat. MLB.com and FanGraphs both say that no, the delivery is good, the control problems are more mental than physical. Medina is still only 19 and it’s silly to think he should be more polished than he is at this age. Dellin Betances had (has) similar stuff and it took him until his mid-20s to harness it. Medina strikes me a similar long-term project. Strike-throwing issues stemming from a mental block seem more difficult to correct than strike-throwing issues that stem from a bad delivery, but who knows. Everyone is different. Medina’s control issues are bad but we’re not in Jeff Degano/Jason Neighborgall territory either. Hopefully as he gains experience he’ll get the ball closer to the plate. I just thought it was interesting to read his control problems could be mental rather than related to his delivery.

3. Osiel Rodriguez is the next big thing. At this time last year Pereira was the next big thing. He signed as an international amateur free agent the previous summer and quickly filled out his frame and shown increased power potential. This year’s next big thing is 17-year-old Cuban righty Osiel Rodriguez, who the Yankees gave $600,000 last year after acquiring bonus pool space in the Luke Voit trade. MLB.com ranks Rodriguez the 18th best prospect in the system. A snippet of their scouting report:

Somewhat reminiscent of former Yankees star Orlando Hernandez, Rodriguez has a seemingly endless combination of pitches and arm slots. He has an electric arm that produces 92-95 mph fastballs that top out at 97 with high spin rates that give him rising life up in the strike zone. His hard curveball is a bit more effective than his harder slider, with both displaying the potential to become plus pitches, and his changeup has splitter action and similar upside … He has a lofty ceiling, as his chance to develop four plus offerings could make him a frontline starter.

Well then. Rodriguez will play this entire season at age 17 and he’s yet to appear in a pro game, so as exciting as that scouting report is, we have to pump the brakes a bit. The scouting report mentions he “doesn’t have the cleanest arm action and there’s effort in his delivery,” which you can see in the video below, and pro hitters will tell us what they think about Rodriguez once he gets into games. Since the 2014-15 signing spree dud, the Yankees have done some great work internationally — six of MLB.com’s top ten Yankees prospects were originally signed internationally by the Yankees — and Rodriguez (and unranked OF Kevin Alcantara) looks like this year’s breakout candidate.

4. I’m not the only Myatt fan. I ranked RHP Tanner Myatt, last year’s 11th round pick, as the 27th best prospect in the system. MLB.com has him 29th and no other scouting publication even mentioned him in recent weeks, let along ranked him on a top Yankees prospects list. I’m not saying he’s a future ace or anything, but a 6-foot-7 20-year-old with an upper-90s fastball and a wipeout breaking ball will never look out of place on an organizational top 30 prospects list. MLB.com’s scouting report says Myatt has “excited the Yankees with the progress he made with his secondary pitches” since the draft, and adds “New York sees him as a potential three-pitch starter but he could wind up as a flamethrowing reliever.” Either outcome would be fantastic for an 11th round pick and a $147,500 bonus. I’m glad I wasn’t the only person to consider Myatt a top 30 prospect in the organization this spring. I must’ve watched this video of him carving up Instructional League hitters a dozen times over the winter.

5. The Yankees are really short on infield talent. There is one (1) infielder on MLB.com’s top 30 Yankees prospects list. That is SS Thairo Estrada, who is coming back from what was essentially a lost season. That’s it. He’s the best infield prospect in the organization. The Yankees are very deep in pitching (21 pitchers in the top 30) and Florial, Pereira, and Cabello give them some high-end outfield talent. The infield? Not so much. Granted, having Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar at the big league level lessens the need infield prospects, but the infield is a weakness in the farm system right now. Recent international signees like SS Ronny Rojas, SS Roberto Chirinos, and SS Oswald Peraza could help correct the infield deficiency in the coming years. At this time last year the Yankees were short on catchers. Now they’re short on infielders. I don’t believe the Yankees specifically drafted Seigler and Breaux to address their catching shortage last year and I don’t think they’d prioritize infielders early in the draft this year either. At the top of the draft, you have to take the best talent regardless of position. Drafting for need is pointless because it’s so difficult to project what you’ll need three or four years down the line, when that prospect is big league ready. That all said, it would certainly be convenient if the best available player is an infielder when the Yankees make their first few draft picks this summer. The system needs an infield infusion.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: Estevan Florial, Luis Medina, Osiel Rodriguez, Prospect Lists, Tanner Myatt

International Deals: Vargas, Verdecia, Gaston, Mesa, Bonuses

August 3, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees are still making moves in international free agency. They added $3.75M in international bonus money prior to the trade deadline with the Adam Warren, Caleb Frare, and Luke Voit trades, and have maxed out their bonus pool at $8,721,125. They started with $4,983,500 and have traded for the maximum additional 75%. Here are the team’s latest international deals.

The New Prospect: SS Alexander Vargas

Vargas, a 16-year-old switch-hitter, hit the international market late because he had not yet been cleared to sign after defecting from Cuba. Once he was cleared, the Yankees landed him for a $2.5M bonus, reports Jesse Sanchez. MLB.com ranked Vargas as the eighth best prospect available during the 2018-19 signing period. A snippet of their write-up:

On offense, he has shown a plus hit tool and is known for making hard contact. He might be a better overall hitter from the left side at the moment, but he shows more power from the right side … Some believe he has the potential to steal 30 bases in the big leagues and sport a .270 batting average. One of the top defenders in this year’s class, Vargas has above average hands with a strong arm and good range to both sides. He’s known for his quick first steps, good body control and fearless approach on offense and defense. He’s also wowed scouts with his ability to track down fly balls in center field.

FanGraphs ranked Vargas as the 14th best prospect in the signing period and says there is “interesting raw material here, nothing explosive.” The Yankees never announce signing bonuses but they did announce the Vargas signing earlier this week, so it is a done deal. The $2.5M bonus is the largest they’ve given an international player since signing 1B Dermis Garcia for $3.2M in 2014.

Yankees sign Verdecia, pursuing Gaston

In addition to Vargas, the Yankees also signed Cuban SS Carlos Verdecia recently, reports Jesse Sanchez. Verdecia received a $325,000 bonus. MLB.com, Baseball America, and FanGraphs did not rank him among the top international prospects available this signing period. I can’t find anything on the kid, though $325,000 is a good sized bonus, so the Yankees think Verdecia has some ability.

Also, according to Jesse Sanchez, the Yankees are pursuing 16-year-old Cuban RHP Sandy Gaston. FanGraphs and Baseball America rank him as the 20th and 24th best prospect in the international class, respectively. MLB.com ranks Gaston as the 15th best prospect in the international class and he is the top unsigned prospect. A piece of their scouting report:

His fastball has been clocked as 97 mph and it’s not uncommon for him to sit at 94-95. That type of velocity is rare in any market and not surprisingly, some scouts wonder if he will be able to command the high velocity on a consistent basis … In terms of secondary pitches, the belief is that those will develop once he signs with a team and receives daily instruction in an academy.

According to MLB.com, the Yankees have signed the No. 8 (Vargas), No. 10 (RHP Osiel Rodriguez), No. 11 (OF Kevin Alcantara), and No. 12 (C Antonio Gomez) prospects available this signing period. Landing Gaston would give them five of the top 15. Pretty cool.

Miscellaneous Bonuses: Rodriguez, Alcantara

Although the Yankees have already finalized a bunch of signings, the dollar figures are just now starting to trickle in. Here are the previously reported bonuses and the new bonuses in one convenient place:

  • SS Alexander Vargas: $2.5M
  • OF Kevin Alcantara: $1M (per Jesse Sanchez)
  • C Antonio Gomez: $600,000
  • RHP Osiel Rodriguez: $600,000 (per Jesse Sanchez)
  • RHP Denny Larrondo: $550,000
  • SS Maikol Escotto: $350,000 (per Baseball America)
  • RHP Juan Carela: $335,000

Rodriguez was originally mentioned as a potential $1M bonus guy, though he signed for $600,000. I wonder what that’s about. Someone get bad information? Or did something pop up in his physical and prompt the Yankees to lower their offer? My guess is it’s the former. The latter would stink.

Anyway, those seven players add up to $5,935,000 in bonuses. However, the Yankees have announced 23 total signings in recent weeks (first announcement, second announcement), so 16 bonuses are still unaccounted for. Players who sign for $10,000 or less are exempt from the bonus pool. I doubt those other 16 players signed for $10,000 or less.

In fact, according to Jesse Sanchez, the Yankees have spent $7.9M in bonus pool money already. They’ve spent $7.9M of their $8,721,125 bonus pool, so they still have about $820,000 to play with. Some or all of it could go to Gaston. What this does mean is the Yankees are almost certainly out of the running for Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa, the consensus top talent on the international market this summer.

There’s no reason to think Victor², who has not yet been cleared to sign, will sell himself way short and sign for a mere $820,000. The Yankees have the smallest bonus pool due to their market size, so other clubs can offer him lots more money. The Orioles, for example, reportedly have $8.5M available and intend to renew their emphasis on international free agency. Seems like the Yankees knew they had no shot at Victor², so they pivoted and signed a bunch of other players instead. Works for me.

Filed Under: International Free Agents Tagged With: Alexander Vargas, Carlos Verdecia, Kevin Alcantara, Maikol Escotta, Osiel Rodriguez, Sandy Gaston

International Signings: Rodriguez, Gomez, Alcantara, Severino

July 11, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2018-19 international signing period opened on July 2nd this year and, as always, the Yankees aggressively added talent. The team started with a $4,983,500 bonus pool for the 2018-19 signing period but they have since added more through a minor trade with the Brewers. How much did they get? I’m not sure, exactly. I suspect it will not be the last time the Yankees trade to add bonus pool space this year.

Aside from stud Cuban outfielder Victor Victor Mesa, who has not yet been cleared to sign, most of the top international prospects have already agreed to deals. These contracts are agreed to well in advance — that’s technically against the rules, but everyone does it and MLB looks the other way — so there’s a big rush of signings on July 2nd. Here are Baseball America’s (no subs. req’d) and MLB.com’s top international prospects and here are the Yankees’ signings via Ben Badler and Jesse Sanchez.

The Top Prospect: RHP Osiel Rodriguez

As expected, the Yankees have signed 16-year-old Cuban RHP Osiel Rodriguez. They were first connected to him a few weeks ago. There’s no word on Rodriguez’s bonus, though it was previously reported he was in line for seven figures. Here is a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

The right-hander’s fastball has been clocked at 97 mph and the pitch usually hovers in the low to mid-90s … Evaluators love his “big arm,” but the club that signs him might ask the teenager to refine his approach and focus on only three pitches. He has an unorthodox — sometimes described as a ‘violent” — delivery, but it has not impacted his pitchability.

Baseball America and MLB.com rank Rodriguez as the fifth and ninth best prospect in the international class, respectively. Last summer the Yankees went pretty heavy on position player prospects, though that had more to do with the strength of the international class than a team philosophy. Rodriguez is the best international pitcher the Yankees have signed since Luis Medina in 2015.

The Second Best Prospect: C Antonio Gomez

The Yankees were connected to 16-year-old Venezuelan C Antonio Gomez for weeks and weeks leading up to the 2018-19 signing period, so it was no surprise then that they signed him on July 2nd. Gomez received a $600,000 bonus. Here is part of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Gomez has built a reputation for being durable and strong. He has a strong arm now and projects to have well-above-average arm strength. He has shown sound receiving skills and is expected to improve on other parts of his defensive game — framing and blocking — once he signs with a team and enters its academy … On offense, Gomez has a displayed a good approach with an easy swing and easy power to the gaps.

Badler adds Gomez “has the tools to be a top-tier defensive catcher.” MLB.com and Baseball America ranked Gomez as the 11th and 15th best prospect in the international class, respectively, and as one of the two or three best catchers available this signing period. The Yankees scout and develop catchers as well as any team in baseball. I’m looking forward to seeing how Gomez progresses.

The Still Not Signed Prospect: OF Kevin Alcantara

Later this week the Yankees are expected to add Dominican OF Kevin Alcantara to their 2018-19 signing period haul. Why don’t they sign him now? Because they can’t. The kid is 15. The Yankees have to wait until his 16th birthday tomorrow to sign him. Here is a piece of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Scouts like the way the sleek teenager glides across the outfield and his closing speed. He has also been praised for his good routes, easy glove work and instincts … Alcantara is also a gamer. He performs well at the plate in a live setting and projects to hit for more power in the future. Scouts also rave about his good bat speed and high contact ratio. He hits the ball hard and often tops the 100-mph mark in exit velocity.

MLB.com and Baseball America rank Alcantara as the tenth and 15th best prospect in the international class, respectively. So, between Rodriguez and Alcantara and Gomez, the Yankees signed three of MLB.com’s top eleven prospects. Pretty cool. Badler says Alcantara is expected to receive a bonus around $1M.

The Name Prospect: RHP Rafael Severino

Sevy 2.0 (@CurlsAndSports)

There’s now another Severino in the organization, and yes, the two are related. The Yankees signed Luis Severino’s younger brother Rafael a few weeks ago. Rafael is 19 (Luis signed at 17) and of course his brother talked him up. “He knows how to pitch. He doesn’t throw that hard, but he’s real skinny. When he gets stronger, he’s going to throw hard … Fastball, 88-89, great slider, changeup. I think he throws a sinker too. He’s a great pitcher,” said Luis to Bryan Hoch and Erik Boland.

Rafael was not on any top international prospects lists and that’s not surprising. Anyone worthwhile tends to get scooped up long before their 19th birthday. It is possible this was only a nepotism signing. That sorta thing happens a lot. And if it was, cool, who cares? Make the Severinos happy. That said, Luis was a bit of a late bloomer himself. Rafael has good bloodlines and the Yankees are pretty darn good at the whole player development thing these days, so he has that going for him.

The 2017 Prospect: OF Mauro Bonifacio

Last summer Baseball America (no subs. req’d) ranked 16-year-old Dominican OF Mauro Bonifacio as the 34th best prospect in the 2017-18 international signing period. For whatever reason, he did not sign. He was the only player on Baseball America’s top 50 international prospects list not to sign, in fact. This year, the Yankees signed Bonifacio to an unknown bonus. Here’s a piece of Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d) from last summer:

Bonifacio’s blend of size and athleticism are intriguing, though he doesn’t quite have the monster raw power to match his size (6-foot-5 and 205 lbs.) … Scouts highest on Bonifacio thought he had a relatively short swing for someone his size with explosion at contact, though the most frequent risk factor scouts pointed to was his ability to hit against live pitching … Bonifacio shows sound defensive actions for his age with an average arm that would fit in either left or right field.

Had Bonifacio been born literally one day later, he would not have been eligible for the 2017-18 signing period at all. I wonder if the Yankees and Bonifacio had an agreement last year, and they asked him to wait until this signing period for bonus pool reasons. The Yankees reportedly did something similar with OF Antonio Cabello and OF Raimfer Salinas last year, but, once they lost out on Shohei Ohtani, they were able to sign them last year under their 2017-18 bonus pool. Maybe Bonifacio agreed to wait until this signing period for a little extra cash?

The Other Six-Figure Signings

The Yankees have handed out at least three more six-figure bonuses this signing period: Cuban RHP Denny Larrondo ($550,000), Dominican RHP Juan Carela ($350,000), and Dominican SS Maikel Escotto ($350,000). Larrondo is the most notable prospect of the bunch and the Yankees had been connected to him for a while now. Here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report:

Overall, Larrondo is an elite athlete with a projectable body and a quick arm. He has tight spin on his emerging curveball, his second-best pitch. The teenager is an aggressive strike-thrower with a working changeup that is expected to improve once he signs with a team and receives daily instruction in a club’s academy. The right-hander has touched 94 mph with his fastball and usually sits in the 91-to-92 mph range.

MLB.com ranked the 16-year-old Larrondo as the 29th best prospect in the international class while Baseball America had him 43rd. Neither Carela nor Escotto appeared on any top international prospects lists for the 2018-19 signing period.

Miscellaneous Signings

Among the various other low level international signings, the Yankees added 16-year-old Dominican C Agustin Ramirez, who Baseball America ranked as the 48th best prospect in the international class. “He’s a strong-bodied hitter who packs a punch into a compact swing,” says their scouting report. The two sides had been connected for a while. The Yankees have also signed Dominican SS Marcos Cabrera, Venezuelan C Kevin Camacho, Dominican SS Dayro Perez, Venezuelan C Jesus Rodriguez, and Venezuelan LHP Miguel Vargas. None of them were among the most notable international prospects available this year.

* * *

I should note that a recent report claiming 18 top international prospects had failed performance-enhancing drug tests has been shot down by MLB, reports Maury Brown. “While we cannot provide any information regarding prospect test results, this report has no truth to it whatsoever,” said an MLB executive. Performance-enhancing drug use is a concern in Latin America, for sure, but this report is bogus. Maybe a jilted trainer or coach was trying to get back at some players or something. Whatever. Anyway, the report is false.

Filed Under: International Free Agents Tagged With: Agustin Ramirez, Antonio Gomez, Dayro Perez, Denny Larrondo, Jesus Rodriguez, Juan Carela, Kevin Alcantara, Kevin Camacho, Maikel Escotto, Marcos Cabrera, Mauro Bonifacio, Miguel Vargas, Osiel Rodriguez, Rafael Severino

Badler: Yankees connected to Cuban righty Osiel Rodriguez

June 26, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

According to Ben Badler (subs. req’d), the Yankees are tied to Cuban right-hander Osiel Rodriguez for the 2018-19 international signing period. It’s worth noting that when a team is “tied” or “connected” or anything like that to a player prior to the open of the signing period, it usually means an agreement is already in place.

Rodriguez, 16, is currently ranked as the ninth best prospect for the 2018-19 international signing period by MLB.com. Here is a snippet of their scouting report:

The right-hander’s fastball has been clocked at 97 mph and the pitch usually hovers in the low to mid-90s. There is some concern about a drop in velocity at times, but evaluators attribute the decrease to normal fatigue or being overworked on the showcase circuit. A strike-thrower, Rodriguez has a good mound presence and demeanor. He changes his arm slot and throws several different pitches at different angles, which has proven to be both a blessing and a curse as far as scouts are concerned.

Evaluators love his “big arm,” but the club that signs him might ask the teenager to refine his approach and focus on only three pitches. He has an unorthodox — sometimes described as a ‘violent” — delivery, but it has not impacted his pitchability.

In addition to Rodriguez, the Yankees have already been connected to Dominican catchers Antonio Gomez and Agustin Ramirez, Dominican outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and Cuban righty Denny Larrondo for the 2018-19 signing period. For what it’s worth, Badler says Rodriguez and Alcantara are expected to receive bonuses north of $1M.

The signing period opens July 2nd and the Yankees have already made one minor trade to add to their $4,983,500 bonus pool. They can max their bonus pool out at $8,721,125. The big question: Can the Yankees afford Rodriguez, Alcantara et al., and stud Cuban outfielder Victor Victor? The Yankees have the smallest international bonus pool due to their market size, meaning other clubs have more money to offer, in some cases significantly more. Winning a bidding war for Victor² won’t be easy.

Filed Under: International Free Agents Tagged With: Osiel Rodriguez

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