NY Yankees News, Information & Community

3/28 to 3/31 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

March 28, 2019 by Mike

Welcome to Opening Day 2019. The Yankees begin the new season at Yankee Stadium this afternoon. The Orioles are in town for the three-game, four-day season-opening series. Tomorrow is the requisite “off-day after Opening Day in case Opening Day gets rained out” off-day. I like to call it “overreactions from Opening Day” day. At this time tomorrow, the Yankees will be either on their way to the World Series or doomed forever. Anyway, time to preview the series.

Their Story So Far

There is no story so far, obviously. The Orioles lost 115 games last season, fifth most in baseball history, and they didn’t do much over they winter. Front office changes took priority over roster changes. The O’s are less talented now than they were last year — remember, they had guys like Manny Machado, Zack Britton, Kevin Gausman, and Adam Jones for at least part of last season — though I have a real hard time believing an MLB team can lose 115 games in back-to-back seasons. They’ll be (slightly) better this year almost by default. The Orioles went 12-17-3 during Grapefruit League play, if you care about such things.

Injury Report

Scheduled Opening Day starter Alex Cobb exited his final spring tune-up start with a groin injury over the weekend, forcing the O’s to scramble a bit with their rotation. Cobb is already on the 10-day injured list. So is backup catcher Austin Wynns, who has an oblique strain. Mark Trumbo is rehabbing from offseason knee surgery and he’s on the 60-day injured list. He’s not coming back anytime soon. Cobb and Wynns could be active when the Yankees and Orioles play again next weekend in Baltimore.

Projected Lineup

According to ZiPS, the Orioles have one projected above-average hitter. That’s Trey Mancini with a 105 OPS+. Their second best hitter is a free agent (Danny Valencia at 96 OPS+), their third best hitter is injured (Mark Trumbo at 96 OPS+), and their fourth best hitter is a prospect in Triple-A (Yusniel Diaz at 95 OPS+). Five of their seven best hitters by ZiPS projected OPS+ aren’t on the active roster. Seems bad.

Rookie manager Brandon Hyde — he was previously Joe Maddon’s bench coach with the Cubs — does figure to have fairly set lineup, at least for the time being. The projected batting order:

CF Cedric Mullins
DH Dwight Smith Jr.
2B Jonathan Villar
LF Trey Mancini
3B Rio Ruiz (vs. RHP) or Renato Nunez (vs. LHP)
1B Chris Davis
RF Joey Rickard
SS Richie Martin
C Jesus Sucre or Pedro Severino

Smith won’t be the full-time DH. He’ll see time in the outfield with Mancini at DH, or Mancini at first base and Davis at DH, or Mancini at first base with Ruiz and Nunez in the lineup and Davis on the bench, so on and so forth. Former Yankee (between waiver claims, anyway) Hanser Alberto is the backup infielder and Rule 5 Draft pick Drew Jackson is a utility guy who should play quite a bit. Here are some 2018 Statcast numbers:

The redder the red, the more above average the player was in that particular category. The bluer the blue, the more below average. Players with an asterisk (*) next to their name didn’t play enough to qualify for the Statcast leaderboards last year. Point is, wow are the Orioles bad. I guess Nunez could be a guy who capitalizes on the extra playing time that comes from being on a terrible team? To me, Mullins is the only lineup regular who has a chance to be part of the next contending Orioles team.

Pitching Matchups

Thursday (1:05pm ET): Masahiro Tanaka (vs. Orioles) vs. Andrew Cashner (vs. Yankees)

Thanks to Cobb’s injury, Cashner will start Opening Day on short rest. He threw two innings in a spring tune-up start this past Sunday. Cashner was pretty terrible last season, throwing 153 innings with a 5.29 ERA (5.32 FIP) and underwhelming peripherals (14.5 K%, 9.5 BB%, 40.4 GB%), and lefties and righties hit him equally as hard. His stuff doesn’t wow like it once did either.

Cashner shut the Yankees down last April (one run in six innings), then they roughed him up the three times they faced him thereafter (12 runs in 19.1 innings). And you know what that means today? Nothing. It means nothing. Over the last four seasons Cashner has a 4.51 ERA (4.61 FIP) in over 600 innings. That seems more meaningful.

Saturday (1:05pm ET): James Paxton (vs. Orioles) vs. Dylan Bundy (vs. Yankees)

The Orioles have Bundy listed as Saturday’s starter, though Joe Trezza says they might use Nate Karns as an opener instead, which is awfully rude for series preview writing purposes. Bundy, who is still somehow only 26, is coming off a season with a 5.45 ERA (5.17 FIP) and an MLB high 41 home runs allowed in 171.2 innings. His strikeout (24.5%) and walk (7.2%) rates were pretty good. His ground ball rate (34.0%) was not, and lefty batters annihilated him (.399 wOBA). Not much to see stuff-wise either.

Bundy made two starts against the Yankees last year and allowed nine runs in nine innings. They hit the poor kid hard every time they face him. He’s always approaching 80 innings in the third inning, it seems. As for Karns (vs. Yankees), he has not pitched in a big league game since May 19th, 2017, due to elbow issues (inflammation and nerve irritation). He’s a fastball/curveball guy who was quite effective against righties the last time he did pitch, which I guess makes him a good opener candidate against the righty heavy Yankees.

Sunday (1:05pm ET): J.A. Happ (vs. Orioles) vs. TBA

Still no word Sunday’s starter. David Hess and Mike Wright are the actual starting pitcher candidates. Paul Fry has been mentioned as a possible opener, though throwing an unspectacular lefty reliever at Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton seems not smart. I suppose Karns could open back-to-back days. That’s a possibility.

Hess (vs. Yankees) had a rough MLB debut last year, pitching to a 4.88 ERA (5.80 FIP) in 103.1 innings. The strikeout (16.3%), walk (8.2%), and ground ball (34.5%) rates were not good, and he served up 22 home runs in those 103.1 innings. Yikes! Hess is a fairly generic fastball/slider/changeup guy who had a negligible platoon split last year, which in this case means righties and lefties hit him equally hard.

Wright (vs. Yankees) has been around for a few years now as an up-and-down swingman. He finally ran out of minor league options and will stick on the big league roster for good, at least for the time being. Last season he had a 5.55 ERA (4.79 FIP) with yucky peripherals (19.1 K%, 9.3 BB%, 35.4 GB%), and those numbers are actually better than his career numbers (5.75 ERA and 5.21 FIP). Yeesh.

Any team and any pitcher can beat any other team on any given day in this sport, but geez, the Orioles aren’t exactly going to make their opponents sweat with the starters they’re set to run out there. On paper, the Yankees have a clear pitching advantage — a clear everything advantage, really — this series. Whether it translates into wins remains is another matter.

Projected Bullpen

Gotta say, I did not expect Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier to make it through the offseason with the Orioles. I figured they would get traded at some point. The last thing a terrible rebuilding team needs is good relievers. Better to cash them in as trade chips before something goes wrong, you know? Anyway, here is the O’s bullpen setup:

Closer: RHP Mychal Givens
Setup: LHP Richard Bleier, RHP Miguel Castro
Middle: RHP Pedro Araujo, LHP Paul Fry, RHP John Means
Long: RHP Jimmy Yacabonis

Only seven relievers with that rotation? Bold. Castro, Means, and Yacabonis can all go multiple innings though, so I guess that keeps them covered. Araujo was a Rule 5 Draft pick last offseason. He missed a bunch of time with elbow trouble last year and needs to spend 14 days on the active roster this year to satisfy the Rule 5 Draft requirements. Once that happens, Araujo can be shuttled up and down like any other rookie.

Givens and Bleier give the Orioles a respectable end-game duo. Givens is hell on righties and my guess is he’ll be matched up against Judge and Stanton, regardless of whether it is the eighth or ninth inning. Bleier? He’s the one who got away. We’ve spent some time the last few weeks talking about players the Yankees regret trading and Bleier is one. They sent him to the O’s for cash in February 2017. Since then, he has a 1.97 ERA (3.80 FIP) with a 65.3% ground ball rate in 96 innings. Oh well. Can’t win ’em all.

Thoughts on Opening Day 2019

March 28, 2019 by Mike

At long last, the offseason and Spring Training are over. The 2019 regular season begins today with the Yankees hosting the Orioles at Yankee Stadium. I know it’s only one of 162, but Opening Day is always a blast, even when it’s 50-something degrees outside. Anyway, let’s get to some thoughts before the new season opens.

1. It completely stinks that it is happening because of injuries (Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius), but it looks to me Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will hit back-to-back this year. At least for the time being. I suppose Greg Bird could hit between them to split up the strikeout prone righties, though I don’t think that’ll happen yet. Bird has to show he can hit Major League pitching first, and I don’t mean in Spring Training either. My guess at today’s starting lineup:

CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
DH Luke Voit
C Gary Sanchez
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
SS Troy Tulowitzki
2B Gleyber Torres

(Update: So close! Jack Curry says that is today’s lineup, only with Sanchez and Andujar flipped, and Tulowitzki and Torres flipped.)

That’s my guess at today’s lineup, not how I would order them. Assuming it happens, I’m pretty thrilled Judge and Stanton will hit back-to-back, even against righties. It is long overdue. Judge second and Stanton third ensures they both hit in the first inning and have a chance to do so with a man on base. Also, batting Stanton third instead rather than fourth increases his chances of getting that one last at-bat in the ninth inning of a close game. The Yankees are playing the Orioles, the Tigers, and then the Orioles again these next ten days. Against those pitching staffs, bat the big guys back-to-back and let ’em eat. Don’t worry about late-inning matchup situations against teams like that. If things go according to plan, those late-inning matchup situations will be irrelevant. We’ll see what today’s lineup is when it comes out. I’m really hoping Judge and Stanton back-to-back is a regular thing.

2. Speaking of Bird, the Hicks injury gives him yet another chance to show he can contribute to the Yankees. Forget about carving out a long-term role for the moment. Let’s see him do something more than nothing first. I have no idea what to expect. I really don’t. Bird had another great Spring Training (.333/.500/.643) but we’ve seen that before and there’s no chance I’m falling for it again. (For what it’s worth, Baseball Reference’s opponent quality metric says Bird faced mostly Double-A caliber hitters this spring.) The Yankees could really use another left-handed bat, especially while Hicks is sidelined, and Bird will get to feast on some crummy pitching staffs in April. The Yankees play 16 of their first 21 games against the Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, and Royals. Everything is set up for Bird to have success. He’s going to play pretty much everyday, the Yankees have a ton of lefty hitter friendly Yankee Stadium home games the first three weeks (15 of their first 21 games are at home), and they play like two good teams in April. Things couldn’t possibly be set up better for Bird and the Yankees. Hopefully he mashes and forces the Yankees to make a tough roster decision once Hicks returns, whenever that happens. Bird has been a productive big leaguer for maybe six weeks over the last three seasons, and, in a perfect world, he would be on his way to Scranton right now. That isn’t the case though. The Yankees need him now more than they did six weeks ago, but that doesn’t make him any less of an unknown.

3. As for Hicks, he isn’t coming back anytime soon, right? As of Monday’s update Hicks was only going through core strengthened exercises and had not yet resumed baseball activities, one week after receiving his second cortisone shot. “I think it has been a little disappointing that it is something that was supposed to be a day-to-day situation and it lingered on and had to get him the shots and all that,” said Aaron Boone to George King earlier this week. Hicks has been down close to a full month now. He played his final Grapefruit League game on March 1st. So, whenever he is cleared for baseball activities, he’ll basically have to go through an entire Spring Training. Playing catch and hitting off a tee, then hitting in the cage, then batting practice, then rehab games, so on and so forth. That stuff takes time. Extended Spring Training will help speed up the process — Hicks can go lead off every inning in ExST games to get a bunch of at-bats in a short period of time — but only so much. Coming back on April 4th, the first day he’s eligible to be activated off the injured list, clearly will not happen. Maybe he can make it back for April 12th, the first day of the second homestand? If not then, what about April 22nd, the first day of the nine-game, ten-day West Coast trip? Not being back in time for that West Coast trip would be rough. Back issues are tricky because they can linger and they’re easy to reaggravate. Carlos Correa received a cortisone shot for his lower back soreness last year and didn’t hit a lick after coming off the disabled list (.180/.261/.256 in 145 plate appearances). That’s the worst case scenario here. Hicks misses a bunch of time and then doesn’t hit after returning. Yuck.

4. Given how little Hicks has progressed these last few weeks, the Yankees had to get a true backup outfielder, and they did exactly that with Mike Tauchman. Clint Frazier needs regular at-bats in Triple-A (and shouldn’t play center field anyway), and, while I like Tyler Wade, there’s no way the Yankees could rely on him as the full-time backup outfielder for more than a week or so. Billy Burns? Matt Lipka? Nah. The Yankees can do better. Tauchman addresses a need and you can talk yourself into believing he has some untapped potential given his 2017 swing changes and the corresponding uptick in power. He has speed, he’s solid defensively, and last year’s Triple-A spray chart shows he’s not a dead pull left-handed hitter. Tauchman can hit the ball out to all fields.

The Yankees have been great at identifying undervalued talent in other organizations these last few years. That doesn’t mean Tauchman is the next Aaron Hicks or Luke Voit. It just means I no longer dismiss these seemingly minor moves out of hand. Let’s see what happens. Anyway, my guess is Tauchman will play a decent amount in the early going. I don’t think the Yankees want to run Brett Gardner out there in center field day after day after day, and I’m sure Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge will get their DH days as well. Tauchman could wind up starting three times a week. Both ZiPS and PECOTA have him as a slightly below league average hitter (96 wRC+ and 98 DRC+) and a +2 WAR player per 600 plate appearances, and hot damn. I’d take that in a heartbeat. The Yankees needed a true fourth outfielder and they might’ve found a pretty good one.

5. I feel like we haven’t talked about Gleyber Torres enough these last few weeks. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton get plenty of attention and understandably so. Gary Sanchez bouncing back from a miserable 2018 season is a hot topic. Miguel Andujar’s defense is a daily talking point. Even Troy Tulowitzki gets his fair share of headlines. Torres though? I feel like he’s flying under the radar. He hit the quietest .289/.373/.644 during Grapefruit League play you’ll ever see, and he’s a just turned 22-year-old middle infielder who already has an All-Star Game selection to his credit. And he plays for the Yankees! Three or four years ago, this kid would’ve been the talk of the league. Now he’s somehow flying under the radar. I don’t think you faithful RAB readers need me to remind you, but folks, Gleyber is a budding superstar. I think he’s no more than two years away from settling in as the Yankees’ best player, and not because I expect Judge or Stanton to decline. Those guys will be great. It’s just that Torres will be better. His raw talent and feel for the game are top of the line, and he’s only going to get better as he gains experience and matures. I’m excited to see Judge and Sanchez and everyone else on the roster. I think I’m looking forward to Gleyber’s sophomore season more than anything.

6. I am surprised the Yankees will use Luis Cessa as a long reliever while Luis Severino and CC Sabathia are on the injured list. He’s been their go-to spot sixth starter the last two years and Cessa had a great Spring Training, so I assumed he would be one of the fill-in starters. Seems like this might’ve been one of those rigged Spring Training competitions, where the Yankees decided ahead of time that Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga would be the fill-in starters. I don’t have a problem with that. It just caught me off guard, is all. Anyway, I still want to see Cessa as a short reliever at some point. I get needing him in long relief and to maybe spot start right now, but I feel like he’s best suited for a one inning air-it-out role. Maybe they’ll do it once everyone is healthy, and they can bump German to long relief and use Cessa in short relief. Cessa can not be sent to the minors without passing through waivers, so there’s a decent chance he won’t last the season with the Yankees. I just hope they try him out in short relief at some point and see what they have there before cutting ties. If a guy with a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and a slider with a whiffs-per-swing rate north around 40% isn’t having success in extended outings, don’t you have to see what he does in one-inning bursts before moving on? We’ll see. Cessa not getting a starting spot despite two injured starters and the Grapefruit League season he just had tells me he’s closer to being out the door than getting a chance to carve out a long-term role.

7. Earlier this month pitching coach Larry Rothschild said it would be the big league rotation or Triple-A rotation for Jonathan Loaisiga, not the bullpen, and the big league rotation it is. Loaisiga did not have a good Spring Training statistically (13 runs in 16 innings), and there were times he ran some really long counts and couldn’t put hitters away, which is a problem we saw when he was first called up last year. The Yankees really like him though, so he’s going to start while CC Sabathia is sidelined. (To be clear, the plan is to start Masahiro Tanaka on normal rest in the fifth game of the regular season, then, when Sabathia’s five-game suspension ends, use his injured list stint to recall Loaisiga before his ten days in the minors are up. Exactly what I laid out last week.) With any luck they’ll only need Loaisiga to make two or three starts before Sabathia returns, and they could always pair him with an opener (does that go against using him as a starter only?) and have a quick hook given their deep bullpen, plus Cessa’s available for long relief should things go wrong. I am firmly in the “get whatever you can from Loaisiga before he gets hurt again” camp and this is a way to do it. It’s not what I expected to happen — I thought it would Cessa and German in the MLB rotation with Loaisiga in Triple-A to start the season — but it works for me. For all intents and purposes, German and Loaisiga are now locked in a mini-competition to remain in the rotation once Sabathia returns. Whoever performs the best will stay in the rotation to cover for Luis Severino.

8. I’m going to direct you over to CBS for my season predictions. Feel free to call me dumb and curse my name for picking the Red Sox to win the AL East again. I was planning to pick the Yankees before Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks, and Dellin Betances went down with injuries that could linger all season. It certainly wouldn’t be the first time a pitcher(s) was never quite right after shoulder inflammation, or that a hitter couldn’t get himself on track following a back issue. It these were pulled hamstrings or something more minor, I’d feel much better about things. Right now, the AL East race is too close (on paper) and the Yankees have too many core players dealing with notable injuries for me to pick them to win the division. I will happily eat crow if I’m wrong. I mean, I picked the Mariners — the Mariners! — to go to the World Series two years ago. Maybe don’t worry about my predictions. If Hicks, Betances, and Severino return reasonably soon and show no lingering effects from their injuries, the Yankees will win the division. Right now, I’d be lying if I said I weren’t concerned. These are important players and worrisome injuries. The Yankees have enough offensive firepower and pitching depth to win a lot of games in a league where like seven teams are trying to contend, so I think another Wild Card spot is their floor. They need to be at full strength to have their best chance at winning the division though, and they’re not at full strength right now.

The Rest of MLB [2019 Season Preview]

March 27, 2019 by Mike

Can’t wait for the Yankees to sign some elite free agents! (Presswire)

At long last, our 2019 Season Preview series comes to an end today. The 2019 regular season begins tomorrow afternoon with Masahiro Tanaka vs. Andrew Cashner at Yankee Stadium. It will be Tanaka’s fourth Opening Day start in the last five years. Mel Stottlemyre (seven), Ron Guidry (seven), Whitey Ford (seven), CC Sabathia (six), Lefty Gomez (six), and Red Ruffing (five) are the only pitchers in franchise history with more Opening Day starts than Tanaka. Who knew?

Anyway, we previewed the other four AL East teams earlier today, so now it’s time to wrap up the 2019 Season Preview series with the rest of MLB. Some of those other 25 teams are actually trying to win this season. Crazy, I know. Let’s take a look at those other 25 teams. Come with me, won’t you?

Arizona Diamondbacks

Are they trying? Kinda. Maybe. Not really though.

One paragraph preview: The Diamondbacks traded their franchise player (Paul Goldschmidt) and lost two other core players to free agency (Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock), replaced them with no one in particular, and took a flier on a guy who is maybe trying to duck a six-figure tax bill in South Korea. Plus, good gravy their uniforms are so ugly. The D’Backs seem like a franchise doomed to have ugly uniforms forever. The uniforms are salt in the wound that is the 2001 World Series.

Atlanta Braves

Are they trying? Words say yes, actions say not really.

One paragraph preview: The Braves won 90 games and the NL East last year, they have a two-year-old taxpayer funded ballpark, and they cut payroll this year. Last year’s Opening Day payroll: $118.2M. This year’s Opening Day payroll: $110.9M. I guess that’s what happens when a franchise is as much a real estate development company as they are a baseball team. The Braves are everything that is wrong with baseball today.

Chicago Cubs

Are they trying? Not as much as they should be, but yes.

One paragraph preview: Folks are sleeping on the Cubbies. The projection systems hate them, but this is the same team that won 95 games last year even though so much went wrong. Kris Bryant played with a bad shoulder. Yu Darvish got hurt. Jon Lester was so-so. Tyler Chatwood was a disaster. The entire team completely stopped hitting in September. And still, 95 wins! The Cubs aren’t the budding dynasty everyone thought they were three years ago. They’re not a sinking ship either.

Chicago White Sox

Are they trying? Nah.

One paragraph preview: The “they’re adding Manny Machado’s pals (Jon Jay and Yonder Alonso)!” thing was my favorite dumb storyline of the offseason. The White Sox set their fans up for disappointment with the halfhearted free agent pursuits. Machado and Bryce Harper were never going to happen. Also, that Eloy Jimenez extension? Sneaky expensive. Harper made $46.9M during the same six-year chunk of his career and he won an MVP. Eloy gets $43M for those six years. Good for him. Way to negotiate an above-market extension with a player yet to make his big league debut, White Sox. The last time they played in the postseason, Nick Swisher was on their roster.

Cincinnati Reds

Are they trying? Yes!

One paragraph preview: The NL Central is brutal — there’s a decent chance the division will feature five teams with a winning record — so I’m not sure their offseason trades will be enough to get back to the postseason, but give the Reds credit. They’re trying. Not enough teams are doing that. Four straight 94+ loss seasons weren’t sitting well with ownership and they made an effort to improve. I sincerely home the Reds are rewarded for it.

Cleveland Indians

Are they trying? Not as much as they should be.

One paragraph preview: The window is about to slam shut. Despite back-to-back-to-back AL Central titles, the Indians cut their Opening Day payroll from $134.9M to $117.7M over the winter. They cut enough elsewhere (Edwin Encarnacion trade, Yonder Alonso trade) that they were able to hold on to Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, which is so dumb. It is so dumb a contending team is in this position, or wants us to believe they’re in this position. Anyway, Francisco Lindor (calf), Jason Kipnis (calf), and Jose Ramirez (knee) are all hurt, their best outfielder is Leonys Martin, and they have no bullpen. The 2016 World Series loss will be this core’s peak.

Colorado Rockies

Are they trying? Yes. They make a lotta weird moves, but yes.

One paragraph preview: The Rockies just made the postseason in back-to-back years for the first time ever. They probably have the best starting rotation in franchise history as well. Kyle Freeland and German Marquez are studs, and I’m not anywhere close to giving up Jon Gray yet. I want to like the Rockies. I do. Then they go and do things like give Ian Desmond five years and $70M, and I just can’t buy all the way in. The Rockies always seem to make life unnecessarily difficult for themselves.

Detroit Tigers

Are they trying? lol no

One paragraph preview: There is no reason to watch the Tigers this year. I guess maybe Miguel Cabrera could go back to being an all-world hitter with good health, otherwise there’s nothing to see here. Most rebuilding teams at least have that one exciting young player to build around. The Tigers have … Jeimer Candelario? His best case is what, fifth best player on a contending team? On the bright side, they expect to start spending again in 2021 or 2022.

Houston Astros

Are they trying? Yup.

One paragraph preview: The Astros are obnoxiously good. They’ll miss Charlie Morton more than they’ll miss Dallas Keuchel, and Morton has injury issues. Wade Miley is a competent back-end starter and youngsters like Josh James and Forrest Whitley have high-end upside. The lineup is deep — Carlos Correa hit .180/.261/.256 (45 wRC+) following his midseason back injury last year and there’s just no way that’ll happen again — and they don’t strike out, and the bullpen is sneaky great. Whoever wins the 2019 American League pennant will have to go through Houston.

Kansas City Royals

Are they trying? Nope.

One paragraph preview: Five-year rebuild followed by three years of contention followed by another five-year rebuild seems not great for baseball. Is that really the best small market teams can hope for, or is that just what fans have been conditioned to believe? At least the Royals got a World Series title out of their rebuild. So many other teams are rebuilding nowadays that it’s inevitable three or four of them will completely screw it up. I’m not sure why a non-Royals fan would pay attention to the Royals this year. World Series champs to irrelevance in four years. Impressive.

Los Angeles Angels

Are they trying? Yes, bless their hearts.

One paragraph preview: Mike Trout is the greatest player I’ve ever seen. Shohei Ohtani is one of the most fun players I’ve ever seen, though Tommy John surgery means he can hit but not pitch this year. The Angels gave out a bunch of one-year contracts over the winter (Matt Harvey, Cody Allen, Justin Bour, Trevor Cahill, etc.) and it felt like sticking a band-aid on a roster aching for more substantial moves. They’ll get back to the postseason while Trout is in his prime … right?

Los Angeles Dodgers

Are they trying? They are. I mean, I think they are.

One paragraph preview: The Dodgers have won six straight NL West titles and have lost back-to-back World Series, and they actively got worse this winter. Yasmani Grandal was replaced with washed up Russell Martin. Yasiel Puig was replaced with A.J. Pollock. Matt Kemp and Alex Wood weren’t replaced at all. The Dodgers always seem to be one reliever short in the postseason and their solution was … Joe Kelly? Los Angeles has cut nearly $50M off their Opening Day payroll since 2017. I’m picking them to lose the World Series ever year until they prove me wrong.

Miami Marlins

Are they trying? hah

One paragraph preview: “(It’s) impossible to win every single game. One thing you always remember is the experience you had while you were at the park. We want it to be a positive experience,” said CEO Derek Jeter earlier this month. Imagine Jeter the ballplayer saying “it’s impossible to win every single game.” Wild. Anyway, Jeter’s comments are so perfect for baseball in 2019. The team is completely indifferent to winning, but they want you to show up to the park and give them your money anyway.

Milwaukee Brewers

Are they trying? Yes.

One paragraph preview: The Brewers won a Game 163 tiebreaker last year and finished with the National League’s best record, then they upped their Opening Day payroll nearly $30M to a franchise record $120.4M this year. That is exactly what a team in Milwaukee’s position should do. They’re good, there were opportunities to get better over the winter, and they jumped on them. They didn’t feed their fans any of that nonsense about having to lock up their core down the line or make sure they have payroll flexibility. It’s nice to know at least one MLB owner still wants to win.

Minnesota Twins

Are they trying? Yes, but they’re definitely not all the way in.

One paragraph preview: The position player core is really, really good. They have a chance to be above-average at every position except maybe catcher. The rotation and bullpen look a little short right now, and I’m surprised they haven’t made a more aggressive push for Dallas Keuchel and/or Craig Kimbrel. I mean, I’m not surprised, but you know what I mean. Joe Mauer’s $23M salary came off the books and the Twins lowered their Opening Day payroll approximately $10M over the winter. I kinda feel like all the Twins fans I saw complaining about Mauer’s contract all those years had this coming.

New York Mets

Are they trying? They are! Good for them.

One paragraph preview: I liked the Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz additions, I liked re-signing Jeurys Familia, I liked the depth moves (Jed Lowrie, Keon Broxton, J.D. Davis, etc.). Their top three starters (Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler) threw 553.2 innings with a 2.60 ERA last season, which is bonkers, and doesn’t it feel like they need that to happen again to have a shot at the postseason? The Mets are going to screw this up somehow. They just are. It’s in their DNA.

Oakland Athletics

Are they trying? In their own little Oakland A’s way, yes, they’re trying.

One paragraph preview: The A’s nearly chased down the Astros last season despite having like two and a half starting pitchers. I loved the Jurickson Profar pickup and Marco Estrada is a pop-up pitcher tailor made for whatever they’re calling the Oakland Coliseum these days. They’re going to score a lot of runs and the bullpen should be great as well. Trying to work that magic with the rotation two years in a row? Iffy, but not impossible.

Philadelphia Phillies

Are they trying? Oh hell yes.

One paragraph preview: No team improved as much as the Phillies this winter. They secured huge upgrades at catcher (J.T. Realmuto), shortstop (Jean Segura), and right field (Bryce Harper), added Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson on top of those guys, and are moving Rhys Hoskins back to his natural first base. He was at -24 DRS in left field last year. The Phillies improved offensively and defensively. I kinda wish they would’ve just said eff it and signed Keuchel and Kimbrel as well, but oh well. A big market team acting like a big market team shouldn’t be this refreshing.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Are they trying? No. If you think the Pirates are trying, your standards are too low.

One paragraph preview: Their Opening Day payroll has gone from $99.9M to $95.8M to $86.3M to $70.0M the last four years. They traded Gerrit Cole for a third starter (maybe) and a platoon third baseman who’s already lost the job, then traded three highly regarded young players for Chris Archer. They made those trades about eight months apart. Way to turn the Andrew McCutchen’s nine years in Pittsburgh into three postseason wins, guys.

St. Louis Cardinals

Are they trying? Indeed.

One paragraph preview: Paul Goldschmidt was a great pickup, even if it pushes Matt Carpenter back to third base. Andrew Miller and Jordan Hicks are a fun end-game combination. My guess is Alex Reyes replaces Dakota Hudson in the rotation before the All-Star break. Jose Martinez and Tyler O’Neill are starting caliber players stuck on the bench. They’re really good. Boring team gets boring preview.

San Diego Padres

Are they trying? Oh indeed.

One paragraph preview: Props to the Padres for swooping in to sign Manny Machado when no other team wanted him. They’re also going to carry tippy top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. on the Opening Day roster. Why? Because their best possible roster includes Tatis. That’s the way it should be. The Padres probably won’t win much this year, but their farm system is outrageously good, and so many of their top prospects (like Tatis) will arrive this summer. When you have a great young talent base like San Diego, you can make huge gains one year to the next, like the 2012-13 Pirates (79 wins to 94 wins), the 2014-15 Cubs (73 wins to 97 wins), and the 2017-18 Braves (72 wins to 90 wins).

San Francisco Giants

Are they trying? Not really.

One paragraph preview: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, Evan Longoria, Mark Melancon, Buster Posey, and Jeff Samardzija are owed $361.7M over the next few seasons. They combined for +10.8 WAR in 2018. Yikes. The Giants plucked Farhan Zaidi from the rival Dodgers to run their new baseball operations group, so they’re getting some much needed fresh perspective in the front office. They’ll be back in contention before you know it.

Seattle Mariners

Are they trying? They won 89 games last year and decided it was time to rebuild, so no.

One paragraph preview: It takes a special kind of cheap to attach a player as valuable as Edwin Diaz to a bad contract to shed as much money as possible. Also, I like that the Mariners traded their best players for prospects whose best case scenario is the guys they gave up (James Paxton for Justus Sheffield, Jean Segura for J.P. Crawford), and those guys apparently weren’t good enough to win with, thus necessitating a rebuild. A strong contender for the most clueless franchise in the game.

Texas Rangers

Are they trying? Nope.

One paragraph preview: The Rangers have the most “this team would be good in 2013” roster in baseball. Hunter Pence! Asdrubal Cabrera! Edinson Volquez! Lance Lynn! Drew Smyly! Shelby Miller! Logan Forsythe! The Rangers acquired all those guys on purpose this offseason. I guess you could build around Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo, maybe Nomar Mazara too, but yeah. There’s not much here. An underrated mess of an organization.

Washington Nationals

Are they trying? Yup.

One paragraph preview: The Nationals went 82-80 last year they’re going to win more games this season because they were never a true talent 82-win team, and the “they’re better off without Harper!!!” hot takes will be everywhere. Preemptively, I am 100% here for Harper dingering the Nationals into oblivion the next 13 years. Washington’s due for another soul-crushing NLDS defeat, aren’t they? At least future manager Joe Girardi will inherit quite a bit of talent in 2020.

Spring training results that we shouldn’t read into

March 27, 2019 by Derek Albin

Earlier this week, I touched on a few players’ spring training performances that have me optimistic. Maybe taking meaning from their camp statistics will make me look dumb over the next few months. Probably, in fact. Today, let’s actually follow conventional wisdom: Grapefruit League numbers are meaningless. Our expectations of the following players shouldn’t be altered because of what they’ve done down in Florida.

Bursting Luis Cessa’s bubble

When Luis Severino and CC Sabathia went down, it seemed inevitable that Luis Cessa would nab a spot in the rotation. He was nothing short of fantastic this spring. Yet, after he posted a microscopic 0.98 ERA in a hair more than 18 innings, the righty was relegated to the bullpen. He probably will get a handful of starts this season anyway, but the fact that his performance didn’t earn him a chance every fifth day speaks volumes.

It’s nice that he pitched well, but that doesn’t erase his lifetime 4.71 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He’s seen his fair share of major league time over the last few seasons, and now that he’ll be 27 next month, it doesn’t look like he has any upside. Been there, done that. It’s time for Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga prove their worth. Or, go to Gio Gonzalez as an experienced veteran.

J.A. Happ will be fine

The Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to solidify the rotation, and just over 11 poor Grapefruit League frames shouldn’t cause much concern. The southpaw was prone to the long ball in camp and surrendered six dingers, which ballooned his ERA to 7.94. His regular season ERA will probably be half that. ZiPS, PECOTA, and Steamer all have him right around 4.00.

There are legitimate reasons to worry about Happ, though. Pitchers in their mid-to-late thirties decline, and the 36 year-old Happ is no exception. He’s going to get worse while under contract with the Yankees barring a Sabathia-like resurgence. That being said, cherry picking his spring performance does not make him toast.

Tyler Wade still has something to prove

After he posted an .845 OPS this spring, Wade’s frustration about not making the team is understandable. He had a spot on the 25-man roster until the Yankees made a trade in the 11th hour for Mike Tauchman. Clearly, the Yankees are looking for a bench that isn’t full of light hitters. Pairing Wade with Austin Romine makes for a pretty weak bench, and even though Tauchman hasn’t hit much in the big leagues yet, he’s the type of player the Yankees covet.

Wade has a disappointing major league track record. He’s posted a 23 wRC+ in 133 big league plate appearances, which doesn’t cut it no matter how much versatility he offers. No amount of production in spring training can erase that. With DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having the ability to cover multiple infield positions and Tauchman able to span all three outfield spots, Wade became the odd man out despite his best effort.

Think twice about falling for Brett Gardner again

A .394/.450/.697 triple-lash will open anyone’s eyes in spring training. That was what Gardner did, but we’ve seen this before. He’s a notorious hot starter who wears down in the second half. He has a career 112/89 wRC+ split between the two halves of the season.

I’d undoubtedly sign up for a torrid start again this year, especially with the array of injuries the team is dealing with. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t do it again. At some point, his second half swoons are going to carry over into the start following season, and 2019 could be that year. He authored a putrid 66 wRC+ to close last season and lost his job to Andrew McCutchen, to boot. Clint Frazer is gunning for his role this year. It would be fun to see Gardner have one last gasp, but I’m not changing my opinion based on what he did over the last month. I was basically ready to move on in the offseason. Now, the Yankees have no choice but to start him.

Various others

The players mentioned above are the ones I found most compelling to discuss. There are other standouts and poor performers whose results mean next to nothing, but it’s not worth a couple of paragraphs. No, I’m not worried about Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, or Adam Ottavino. I don’t think Nestor Cortes, David Hale, or Gio Urshela are hidden gems. I think that’s a little too obvious.

The Rest of the AL East [2019 Season Preview]

March 27, 2019 by Mike

The best ballpark in the AL East. (Presswire)

The AL East has changed quite a bit the last few years. As recently as 2016, preseason projections had the five AL East teams separated by only nine games in the standings. All five teams were talented and they were all a headache to play against. It was the toughest division in baseball, rather easily.

This year FanGraphs projects the gap between the best team (Yankees!) and worst team (Orioles) in the AL East at 35 games. PECOTA has the gap at 28 games. No other division has a gap that large. The AL East should again be a two-team race this summer, maybe a three-team race if some things break right. Point is, this is no longer the toughest division in MLB. Let’s preview the other four AL East clubs.

Baltimore Orioles

Notable Additions: Richie Martin, Rio Ruiz, Dwight Smith Jr.
Notable Losses: Tim Beckham, Adam Jones

Their Story: The Orioles lost 115 games last season, the fifth most in baseball history, and they did that while having Manny Machado, Zack Britton, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, and Brad Brach half the season and Adam Jones all season. All those guys are gone now, and the Orioles did nothing this winter other than make a pair of Rule 5 Draft picks and a few waiver claims. It was a quiet winter in Baltimore.

The biggest changes the O’s made this offseason were organizational. Manager Buck Showalter and GM Dan Duquette were let go — how could you keep them after 115 losses? — and Mike Elias was hired away from the Astros to become the new GM. He’s since overhauled the front office, upgraded the scouting departments, and brought the team’s analytics group out of the Stone Age.

The Orioles are very early in a long-term rebuild and it’ll take a while for those core organizational changes to lead to results on the field. Elias has them moving in the right direction, which is a start. This is essentially a ground up rebuild though. I’m not sure there’s a single player on the MLB roster who will be part of the next contending Orioles team. Maybe Cedric Mullins? That’s about it. It’s going to be another loss-filled season for the O’s.

Random Player Who Will Annoy The Yankees: Dwight Smith Jr. is my pick. The Orioles got him from the Blue Jays in a minor trade earlier this month and the 26-year-old socked three homers in limited Spring Training action. He’s hit everywhere he’s played (career 120 wRC+ in the minors) and the left-handed hitter poking a few homers into the short porch feels inevitable.

Boston Red Sox

Notable Additions: Colten Brewer?
Notable Losses: Joe Kelly, Craig Kimbrel

Their Story: The defending World Series champions didn’t have a good offseason or a bad offseason. They just didn’t have an offseason. They re-signed Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce, and that’s it. I suppose they could still re-sign Kimbrel at some point. It seems really, really unlikely though. Like, if it were going to happen, it probably would’ve happened already. The Red Sox have the exact same roster as last year, minus Kelly and Kimbrel.

Clearly, the Red Sox are going to score a lot of runs, and their rotation is strong as well, assuming no one shows ill-effects from the deep postseason run. The outfield defense is great too. (The infield defense? Not so much.) Boston’s weakness, if they have one, is the bullpen. Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier went from their No. 3 and 4 relievers last year to their No. 1 and 2 relievers this year. Tyler Thornburg and Brandon Workman will assume high-leverage roles.

Brewer has been getting talked up as the bullpen breakout star. He’s a high spin cutter guy who spent 2017 in the Yankees’ farm system as a minor league Rule 5 Draft pick. Brewer signed with the Padres last winter, allowed ten runs in 9.2 big league innings, then went to the Red Sox as a scrap heap addition this winter. Should the defending champs, with the highest payroll in the sport, be relying on a scrap heap guy to save the bullpen? Hey, it worked with Brasier last year. Why not?

Anyway, the Red Sox are going to be very good again this season. Maybe the bullpen will be their downfall. My guess is they’ll figure it out throughout the summer. The offense is great and the rotation is very good, and if you’re hoping for a collapse, you’ll probably be disappointed. No, they won’t win 108 games again. No one does that in back-to-back years. The Red Sox are going to be really good again though. Hate to break it to you.

Random Player Who Will Annoy The Yankees: Steve Pearce isn’t random enough. I’ll go with light-hitting catcher Christian Vazquez. His short porch solo home run against Zack Britton in the fourth inning of Game Four proved to be the ALDS winning run last year. Vazquez hit .207/.257/.283 (42 wRC+) overall last year. Prepare for him to hit .360/.420/.500 against the Yankees this year.

Tampa Bay Rays

Notable Additions: Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, Guillermo Heredia, Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino
Notable Losses: Jake Bauers, C.J. Cron, Sergio Romo, Mallex Smith

Their Story: After four straight losing seasons, the Rays emerged to win 90 games last season, sixth most in a league that had seven winning teams. They responded by cutting their Opening Day payroll from $76.4M last year to an MLB low $50.4M this year. Sincere attempts to land Paul Goldschmidt (trade) and Nelson Cruz (free agent) fell short, then, a few weeks ago, Buster Olney (subs. req’d) wrote this when ranking the divisions (emphasis mine):

It’s possible that this division has baseball’s two best teams in the Red Sox and Yankees, and folks with those teams view the Tampa Bay Rays warily after their nearly perfect series of transactions strengthened an already deep well of talent.

No team in baseball gets the benefit of the doubt more than the Rays. It’s incredible, really. Imagine any other team in baseball winning 90 games, cutting their payroll 35% (!), falling short on two big ticket players, and have it be called a “nearly perfect series of transactions.” May we all one day be graded on the Rays curve, where mediocrity passes for greatness, and you don’t have to actually contend to be considered a contender.

Tampa added Morton to Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow to give them three actual starting pitchers. They’ll use openers for the other two rotation spots. A full season of Tommy Pham will help the offense more than Garcia or Diaz or Zunino, and it’s about time Meadows gets a chance to play. That kid should’ve been been in the big leagues full-time two years ago. Service time manipulation is a hell of a thing.

The Rays are quite clearly the third best team in the five-team AL East. They’ll be annoying to play against, as always, but it’ll take a lot going right for them and a lot going wrong for the Yankees (and Red Sox) for them to have a realistic shot at the division title. They’ll finish about 15 games out and then move on to their next “nearly perfect series of transactions” that reduce payroll and don’t make them materially better.

Random Player Who Will Annoy The Yankees: Gotta be Avisail Garcia. His high ground ball rate (52.2%) and average-ish hard contact rate (33.3%) make him a good candidate to BABIP the Yankees to death with their sketchy infield defense. I’m ready for all the seeing-eye grounders pulled juuust out of Troy Tulowitzki’s reach.

Toronto Blue Jays

Notable Additions: Freddy Galvis, Elvis Luciano, Daniel Norris, Bud Norris, Matt Shoemaker
Notable Losses: Marco Estrada, Russell Martin

Their Story: The Blue Jays went from a nightmare to play against (or at least pitch against) to a non-factor so quickly that I hardly even noticed. They still have Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales and, uh, Kevin Pillar? That’s about it. Vlad Guerrero Jr. will be up at some point this season (I think), but he’s nursing an oblique injury right now, which ~~gives the team an excuse to manipulate his service time~~ means he’s a few weeks away from getting called up.

I’m not quite sure what Toronto’s plan is right now. It is clearly not “win now.” They also haven’t completely torn it down, so it’s not a full rebuild either. Maybe they’ll commit to a rebuild and trade Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Ken Giles at the deadline. It doesn’t seem like this team will do anything well this year. Pitch well, hit well, defend well, nothing. What’s the opposite of a triple threat?

The only thing keeping the Blue Jays from being the least interesting team in the AL East — that isn’t easy to do when you share a division with a 115-loss team! — is Luciano. Toronto plucked him from the Royals in the Rule 5 Draft. He turned 19 (!) last month and has never pitched above rookie ball, but he will be on the Opening Day roster. Luciano has a chance to become the first player to play an entire big league season (Opening Day through Game 162) as a teenager since Ken Griffey Jr.

Random Player Who Will Annoy The Yankees: Brandon Drury. Take it to the bank. There will be a game this season where Drury hits a double and a homer against J.A. Happ, and Miguel Andujar makes a goofy throwing error, and the “shoulda kept Drury!!!” takes come out of the woodwork. They say you can’t predict baseball, but folks, Drury giving the Yanks headaches this year is as predictable as it gets.

Five bold predictions for the 2019 Yankees

March 27, 2019 by Mike

In less than 28 hours the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Spring Training really flew by this year even though it seemed like someone got hurt every other day. Thank goodness it’s over, both Spring Training and an offseason that was frustrating for fans (of all teams) more often than not.

Since Opening Day is tomorrow, it’s time for what has become my annual bold predictions post. Two years ago I went 7-for-10 and that told me I didn’t go bold enough. I trimmed it to five bold predictions last year and went 0-for-5. That’s more like it. Fewer predictions with a greater emphasis on bold. That’s the point, right?

Well, anyway, here are my five hopefully bold enough predictions for the 2019 Yankees, listed in no particular order. We’ll come back and see how I did in a few months.

Judge and Stanton will combine for 116 home runs

The Yankees set several home run records last season, mostly notably the single-season record with 267 homers, but the whole “first team to get 20 homers from every lineup spot” thing is my favorite record. That is insane. That deep attack is how the Yankees were able to set the single-season homer record despite losing Aaron Judge to a wrist injury for seven weeks and others underperforming.

Breaking the home run record again this season is a very possible. It’ll take good health, something the Yankees don’t have right now, but it is possible. My focus is another home run record though. I’m predicting Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will combine for 116 homers, the most ever by two teammates in history. Only five sets of teammates have ever combined for as many as 100 homers in a season.

1961 Yankees (115): Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54)
2001 Giants (110): Barry Bonds (73) and Rich Aurilia (37)
1927 Yankees (107): Babe Ruth (60) and Lou Gehrig (47)
1998 Cardinals (101): Mark McGwire (70) and Ray Lankford (31)
2002 Rangers (100): Alex Rodriguez (57) and Rafael Palmeiro (43)

Judge and Stanton combined to hit 65 home runs last season, so, even as good as they are, they only got a little more than halfway to my boldly predicted total of 116. Here’s the thing though: Judge and Stanton combined to hit 111 home runs in 2017. Not as teammates, of course, but they combined for 111 homers. Judge hit a rookie record 52 homers and Stanton hit an MLB best 59 homers with Miami.

These two have already come pretty close to 116 homers! Stanton will play the entire 2019 season at 29 and Judge will turn 27 in a few weeks, so they’re both very much in the primes of their careers. Also, Stanton will presumably be more comfortable in year two in New York, and he gets to play in Yankee Stadium. I mean, the guy hit 59 homers while playing his home games in spacious Marlins Park. Why can’t he hit 60-65 in a friendlier ballpark in the Bronx?

Judge and Stanton combining for 116 homers means one of them will almost certainly have to hit at least 62 homers, which would pass Maris and set a new American League single-season home run record. I suppose they could split it right down the middle and hit 58 each. The more likely scenario is one has a historic record-breaking season while the other merely has a monster MVP caliber season. It could happen!

Paxton will receive the most Cy Young points by a Yankee since Clemens

The last Yankee to win the Cy Young award is Roger Clemens in 2001. He went 20-1 in his first 30 starts that year, and that created a Cy Young narrative that was more or less unbreakable. Going 20-1 (he finished 20-3) was hard to ignore even though new Yankees teammate Mike Mussina (3.15 ERA and +7.1 WAR) had an objectively better season than Clemens (3.51 ERA and +5.7 WAR).

Since 2001, eleven different players have combined for 16 instances of a Yankee receiving Cy Young votes. Most notably, Mariano Rivera was the runner-up to Bartolo Colon in 2005 and Chien-Ming Wang was the runner-up to Johan Santana in 2006. The Cy Young ballot is five names deep and a first place vote equals five points, a second place vote equals four points, all the way on down to one point for a fifth place vote. The most points wins.

The most Cy Young points tallied by a Yankee since Clemens was not Luis Severino two years ago. It was CC Sabathia in 2010. He threw 237.2 innings with a 3.18 ERA and +6.4 WAR that season, and finished third in the Cy Young voting behind Felix Hernandez and David Price. Here are the top Cy Young point totals among Yankees since Clemens:

2010 CC Sabathia: 102 points
2017 Luis Severino: 73 points
2005 Mariano Rivera: 68 points
2011 CC Sabathia: 63 points
2006 Chien-Ming Wang: 51 points
2004 Mariano Rivera: 27 points
Ten instances with 13 or fewer points

For reference, American League Cy Young winners have averaged 166.4 voting points over the last ten years. (The National League average is a bit higher because Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and the late Roy Halladay skewed it with their overwhelming greatness.)

With all due to respect to Masahiro Tanaka, who is forever cool with me, James Paxton is the Yankees’ best chance at Cy Young votes this year given Severino’s injury. Paxton has flashed ace ability in the past — at one point last May he struck out 16 and threw a no-hitter in back-to-back starts — but he hasn’t had that complete, fully healthy ace season yet. Last year he threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA. The year before it was 136 innings with a 2.98 ERA.

Blake Snell lowered the Cy Young threshold last year by throwing only 180.2 innings, the fewest ever by a Cy Young winner in a non-strike season. Of course, Snell also became the first American League starter with a sub-2.00 ERA since peak Pedro Martinez, so those 180.2 innings were super high-quality. Point is though, winning the Cy Young with only 180 or so innings is no longer impossible. You just need to be really, really good.

The bold prediction here is Paxton will not only stay healthy and get to 180 innings or thereabouts, but that he’ll also perform as well as 2017 on a rate basis. Even with the move from ~~Safeco Field~~ T-Mobile Park into Yankee Stadium. That means a 3.00 ERA or so, a FIP about a half-a-run lower, a strikeout rate approaching 30%, and nearly five strikeouts for every one walk. Add in the “new guy carrying to the Yankees to the postseason” narrative, and there you go. Even if he doesn’t win the award, Paxton will rake in Cy Young points.

Andujar will finish the year as an above-average defender

Perhaps my boldest prediction ever. I’m a longtime Andujar believer — what’s a good fan club name, the FANdujars? — and yes, I know he was atrocious defensively last season. Defensive Runs Saved data goes back to 2003 and includes over 31,000 individual player seasons. Last year Andujar finished with the 25th worst rating (-25 runs) in DRS history, sandwiched right between 2004 Bernie Williams (-26 runs) and 2007 Derek Jeter (-24 runs). Eek.

Like I said though, I am an Andujar believer, and I’m boldly buying into all the defensive work he did over the winter and in Spring Training, as well as a year’s worth of MLB experience. Being a rookie in the big leagues isn’t easy, especially not in New York with a Yankees team that is in the race. It’s pretty remarkable Andujar and Gleyber Torres were as productive as they were last season. There’s a lot to absorb during that first year in the show.

Andujar (and Torres) knows what to expect now, and he’s a very hard worker who’s spent a lot of time working on his defense the last five months. A lot. I expect all that work to pay off this summer. We’re going to see more plays like this …

We see you, @MAndujarPapa ?? pic.twitter.com/x0nnPnOrGB

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) March 13, 2019

… and fewer missed dives and double-clutches and short-hopped throws. Will Andujar be Adrian Beltre? Maybe! But no, probably not. I’m going with above-average, and, just to be completely upfront about this, I am totally claiming victory here if Andujar finishes the season at, like, +0.1 UZR with the other defensive metrics in the negative. One stat in plus territory, even by a tiny little bit, works for me.

Ottavino will lead the Yankees in saves

On paper, Adam Ottavino is what, fourth on the closer depth chart? Aroldis Chapman will again go into the season as the ninth inning guy, as he should, and my hunch is Zack Britton is next in line for save opportunities over Dellin Betances whenever Chapman needs a day. Either way, it’s Britton and Betances behind Chapman in either order, which means Ottavino is fourth at best. Maybe he’s even behind Chad Green? Could be.

Even at fourth on the closer depth chart, you don’t have to try real hard to envision Ottavino getting save chances at some point. I’m worried this bold prediction isn’t all that bold. Betances is already hurt, and while it’s not expected to be a long-term injury, you never really know with shoulders. He might not be the same dominant Dellin when he returns. That means Ottavino would have one fewer player standing in his way for save chances.

I didn’t love the decision to re-sign Zack Britton — like the rest of the Yankees’ free agent activity, it was fine and nothing more — because his strikeouts have gone down and his walks have gone up, and hitters aren’t chasing out of the zone nearly as much as they did a few years ago. For a 31-year-old reliever who’s missed a bunch of time with injuries the last two years, expecting Britton to be good rather than great isn’t crazy. I mean, look at this:

As for Chapman, he looked sneaky crummy this spring, with a fastball that sat mostly 94-96 mph rather than 97-98 mph. I know it’s only Spring Training, believe me, but Chapman’s fastball averaged 99.1 mph last March. For a guy who’s already losing velocity, seeing mid-90s rather than upper-90s this spring was a little worrisome. Hopefully he will regain those last few miles-an-hour as the weather warms up and the ninth inning adrenaline flows.

Even then, Chapman spent about a month on the disabled list in 2017 (shoulder) and 2018 (knee), and had to be demoted out of the closer’s role each year. It wouldn’t be the most surprisingly thing in the world if it were to happen again. Between Betances already being hurt and Britton and Chapman showing signs of decline, it sure seems like Ottavino is closer to save chances than it may appear given the other names in the bullpen.

If Ottavino leads the Yankees in saves — ahem, when he leads the Yankees in saves — my guess is he’ll do so with a low total like 18 saves. Ottavino has 18 saves, Chapman has 17 saves, Britton has 14 saves, something like that. It won’t be Ottavino with 42 saves and the runner-up with five saves or something like that. The Yankees have a historically great bullpen on paper. I’m still boldly predicting Ottavino will have to save the day in the ninth inning.

Romine will get an extension before Judge

Look, this probably won’t happen seeing how it wouldn’t qualify as a bold prediction if it were likely, but folks, get ready for Austin Romine to get a contract extension before other core players. Romine is due to become a free agent after the season and …

… the Yankees love him. Absolutely love him.
… Romine will be cheap, which presumably makes coming to terms easier.
… the free agent market is increasingly hostile toward players, hence all the recent extensions.

“I’d love to start, but I love being here. I like my job. I like this team. I’m looking forward to being on another winning team,” said Romine to Randy Miller recently. The American League catching picture stinks right now. Romine very well might get offers to start next winter, which is why I expect the Yanks to swoop in with an extension offer sooner rather than later. Two years and $5M seems reasonable.

As for Judge, he will earn $684,300 this year, his final season as a dirt cheap pre-arbitration player. The recent Alex Bregman extension (six years, $100M) and less recent Mike Trout extension (six years, $144.5M) indicate a Judge extension will fall in the six-year, $120M range. Bregman and Trout signed their deals at the same service time level as Judge, so that’s the ballpark number. He’s a $20M per year player on an extension.

During a radio interview earlier this week, Judge said “we haven’t spoken about that” when asked about a possible extension. He did kinda sorta indicate his agent may be talking to the Yankees though. Hal Steinbrenner more or less ducked a question about possible extensions in a radio interview the same day. Brendan Kuty has a transcript:

“I’ll leave that to (general manager Brian Cashman),” Steinbrenner said. “I’m not going to get into who we have talked to about the concept or who we do want to or don’t want to. But I will say it’s obvious we can’t do everybody at once. There are numerous situations we’re looking at when it comes to major league service time and the other part of the puzzle is, how conducive is the player to a concept like that. More to come. Stay tuned. We love all of our players. We love our young players. And we want them wearing pinstripes.”

This is my thinking: Judge already has lucrative endorsement deals with Pepsi and Adidas, among other #brands, and he’s a year away from a potential record arbitration payday. Kris Bryant ($10.85M), Francisco Lindor ($10.55M), and Mookie Betts ($10.5M) are the high-water marks for first year arbitration-eligible players. Repeating his 2018 season in 2019 (minus the wrist injury) would put Judge in position to crack $11M next year.

Because the endorsements give him some level of financial security, Judge is in good position to go year-to-year in arbitration to maximize his earning potential, or at least drive a real hard bargain in extension talks. He’s not stupid. He knows he’s the face of the franchise and one of the game’s biggest and most marketable stars. Passing on a nine-figure extension after only two full MLB seasons can’t be easy. Judge is one of the few players who could swing it.

The Yankees control Judge through 2022, so, while they surely want to lock him up at a below-market rate as soon as possible, there’s not much urgency. He’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Romine, on the other hand, can bolt after the season, and the generally weak catching situation around baseball means it’s possible another team will lure him away with a starting job. Time is of the essence with Romine. Free agency is months away, not years.

Furthermore, Romine is going to be cheap, and that makes coming to an agreement easier. The bigger the contract, the more complicated it gets. Martin Maldonado and James McCann both inked one-year deals worth $2.5M over the winter. Doubling that figures to catch Romine’s attention (and would double his career earnings) and could lead to a quick deal. It makes too much sense not to happen. Judge is playing the long game. Romine … is not.

An Important Year in the Farm System [2019 Season Preview]

March 26, 2019 by Mike

Two years ago the Yankees had arguably the top farm system in baseball. Uncharacteristically, they traded veterans for prospects at the 2016 trade deadline, and several of their own players took big steps forward with their development. Gleyber Torres came over in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar? All originally drafted or signed by the Yankees.

That monster farm system of two years ago has become a powerhouse MLB team. The Yankees surprisingly won 91 games in 2017, not-so-surprisingly won 100 games in 2018, and now they go into 2019 on the very short list of realistic World Series contenders. They’ve graduated or traded many top prospects, and have tumbled down the farm system rankings as a result:

Baseball America: 20th
Baseball Prospectus: 12th
Keith Law: 19th

“Being ranked as everybody’s top farm system isn’t our goal. Our goal is to be ranked as winning the World Series,” said amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer to Greg Joyce last month. “… Everything’s a cycle in this thing. You get to a point where, if you’re going to try to win, you end up trading prospects. So we’ve traded quite a few guys over the last few years to help us acquire talent to help us win at the big league level, and that’s what we’re there to do. We’re in one of those cycles now where we gotta dump some more guys into the system.”

As the big league team contends this summer, the farm system will be in something of a rebuild, in that they have a plethora of young low minors prospects looking to take that step toward becoming the next wave of great Yankees prospects. The high-end upper minors talent isn’t there like it has been the last two years, and that could be an issue come trade deadline time. Time to preview the year ahead in the farm system.

Top Prospects Who Could Help This Season

There is only one: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga. In fact, the Yankees’ No. 2 prospect is set to join the rotation in a few days, after CC Sabathia’s five-game suspension ends. That is almost certainly a temporary move with Sabathia due to return in mid-April and Luis Severino hopefully sometime in early-May. Loaisiga is going to join the Yankees soon though, and that gives him a chance to help the team and force the club to keep him around longer.

Of course, Loaisiga has a long injury history and very limited experience (184.1 career innings!), plus he has never thrown a pitch in Triple-A, so he would presumably benefit from some Triple-A time. I imagine he’ll be returned to the minors at some point. Loaisiga has a quality three-pitch mix as well as good control, plus he seems unflappable on the mound, which are good traits for a young pitcher. Point is, Loaisiga is the only high-end upper minors prospect we figure to see in the Bronx this year.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help This Season

OF Estevan Florial, the Yankees’ top prospect, will begin the season on the injured list after breaking his wrist crashing into the outfield wall this spring. I suppose the good news is he’ll only be in a cast three weeks, meaning his recovery may not be as long as you’d expect. Three weeks in a cast seems to indicate he could be back in games sometime in May. That would be ideal. We’ll see.

The injury is unfortunate because Florial has a clear flaw in his pitch recognition — “I’m a young player. It’s tough to know what pitch to select. Try to know the pitch I can drive, and what I can’t, too,” Florial said to Brendan Kuty last month — and the only way to improve on that is with game reps. There’s no substitute for seeing live action pitching. Florial missed time with wrist surgery last year, so he has a lot of catching up to do. Once healthy, he’ll likely go to High-A Tampa or Double-A Trenton. Either way, we won’t see Florial in the big leagues this summer.

After Florial and Loaisiga, the next five best prospects in the farm system are all teenagers: C Anthony Seigler, OF Everson Pereira, OF Antonio Cabello, RHP Deivi Garcia, and RHP Roansy Contreras. On one hand, hooray for having so many very talented teenagers. On the other hand, none of those guys will come close to sniffing the big leagues. Seigler, Pereira, and Cabello may not even see full season ball this year, and Contreras could spend the entire season with Low-A Charleston.

Garcia made one Double-A spot start at the end of last season but he is unlikely to start this season at that level. Not after making only six (excellent) starts with High-A Tampa. Seems to me Deivi will return to Tampa for a few weeks before being bumped back up to Trenton. His best case scenario will be a late-season cameo with Triple-A Scranton. If we see Garcia in the big leagues this year, either something went very right (he really broke out) or very wrong (everyone got hurt).

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help This Season

The Yankees will have at least one of their non-top prospects on the Opening Day roster. LHP Stephen Tarpley, who pitched well last September and was great this spring, will be in the bullpen. He definitely has a chance to carve out a long-term role this summer. In all likelihood though, Tarpley will ride the shuttle up and down a few times. That’s just how it goes for a young reliever with options, especially when he’s the last guy in the bullpen.

Another reliever we could see at some point: RHP Domingo Acevedo. Lindsey Adler says Acevedo pitched in relief in minor league camp this spring and the Yankees wouldn’t do that unless he was moving into the bullpen full-time. I’m definitely down with this. Acevedo has struggled to stay healthy as a starter and he still hasn’t developed his slider into a reliable third pitch. Let him air it out for an inning at a time with the big fastball (and changeup) and there’s a chance very good things will happen. I’m looking forward to seeing Acevedo in short relief stints.

RHP Chance Adams and RHP Mike King are the top two Triple-A depth starters at the moment, though King suffered a stress reaction in his elbow early in camp, and is still working his way back. He’s expected to join the RailRiders in early May. Once he does, King could jump ahead of Adams on the call-up list. He had a monster 2018 season statistically and, at least prior to the injury, had firmer stuff and control than Adams, who’s taken a step back the last two seasons. Still, Adams is on the 40-man roster, so we’ll see him work shuttle duty at some point.

Double-A hurlers RHP Trevor Stephan, RHP Garrett Whitlock, and RHP Nick Nelson probably will not see the big leagues this summer. They’re not on the 40-man roster yet — Stephan and Whitlock don’t have to be added to the 40-man until after next season — and there are a few guys ahead of them on the depth chart, but, anytime you begin the season in Double-A, you have a chance to play in MLB. They will, they do. Pitch well in Double-A and they’ll find themselves in Triple-A in short order, and force a call-up conversation.

The Mike Tauchman pickup and Tyler Wade demotion makes it less likely we will see IF Thairo Estrada this year, or at least see him anytime soon, especially after a lost season last year. A few weeks (months?) worth of at-bats with Triple-A Scranton is what Estrada needs right now, but, if the Yankees have a need at the MLB level and he’s the best option, they will call him up. I imagine we’ll see Thairo as at least a September call-up this summer.

Breakout Candidates

This is where all that young low minors talent comes into play. Guys like Seigler, Pereira, Cabello, and Contreras are prime breakout candidates who could put themselves into the top 100 prospect discussion after the season. (Deivi broke out last year, I’d say.) Pereira and Cabello in particular are very high upside players who could very well rank 1-2 in the farm system in a few months. They’re that good and that talented.

This year’s Pereira and Cabello, meaning the highly regarded international signings set to make their pro debut, should be OF Kevin Alcantara and RHP Osiel Rodriguez. Alcantara ($1M bonus) stood out for his hitting ability when he signed and he’s already growing into some power. Rodriguez ($600,000) boasts a deep power arsenal and, like many Cuban pitchers, he throws from a variety of arm angles to create deception.

Hard-throwing RHP Luis Gil kinda sorta broke out last year, and he might have the best fastball in the farm system. He’s upper-90s regularly and has a high spin rate on everything. Gil is the quintessential modern pitching prospect. RHP Juan Then and RHP Yoendrys Gomez are other young low minors guys who stand out more for their know-how and pitchability than lighting up the radar gun. That said, neither guy is short on stuff.

A few levels higher, the Yankees are finally set to turn 2017 first round pick RHP Clarke Schmidt loose. He returned from Tommy John surgery last year and pitched well in limited action. The Yankees will not be reckless with Schmidt — they don’t have him penciled him for 180 innings or anything — but he’ll finally get a chance to hold down a rotation spot and show what he can do. He’s been an afterthought since being drafted because of the Tommy John surgery. Schmidt’s kinda like adding a new prospect to the system all together.

Second tier outfield prospects like OF Josh Stowers and OF Anthony Garcia may not have the pure upside that Pereira and Cabello offer, though they do bring a lot to the table. In Garcia’s case, that means a lot of power. A lot. He’s a switch-hitter who can hit the ball a mile from both sides of the plate. Stowers is more well-rounded and will impact the game a lot of different ways. Offensively, defensively, on the bases, etc. He strikes me as a sneaky good breakout candidate.

Between international free agency and trades (Gil, Stowers, and Then were all acquired in trades), the Yankees have stocked the lower levels of the minors with exciting talent, and it was all by design. They picked up these kids very early in their careers — over the winter they traded for a pitching prospect yet to appear in a pro game — and will try to develop them into the next wave of top prospects. That’s the plan. The farm system may lack upper minors talent. In the low minors though, forget it. The Yankees are stacked, and that equals a small army of breakout candidates.

Returning From Injury

Technically, RHP Albert Abreu finished last year healthy, though injuries have given him trouble since coming over from the Astros in the Brian McCann trade. The power four-pitch mix is impressive. The lack of control and lack of durability are not. More than anything at this point, Abreu needs reps so he can work on refining his game. A full healthy season would be welcome in 2019. It could also land him a big league call-up at some point.

RHP Freicer Perez is a more traditional injury comeback story. He made six ugly starts last season before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. The good news? Perez only had bone spurs removed. His labrum, rotator cuff, and capsule are all intact. A lost season is a lost season though, and this year Perez will look to get back on track with a healthy shoulder. He went into last year as one of the top prospects in the system. Getting back to that level after shoulder surgery remains possible.

The forgotten pitching prospect in the system is RHP Glenn Otto, the Yankees’ fifth round pick in 2017. He made two starts with Low-A Charleston last year before having season-ending surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder. Yikes. When healthy, Otto showed a good low-to-mid-90s fastball with a hammer high-spin curveball that is seemingly allergic to bats. There were questions about his durability and changeup even before the surgery, but, even if Otto is a reliever long-term, he could be a good one. His coming out party is set for this summer.

Make or Break Year?

The 2014-15 international spending spree, while well-intended, has worked out very poorly. Florial is far and away the best prospect to come out of that signing class and he was a small bonus guy later in the signing period, not a headliner. Many of those 2014-15 kids have already washed out. Others, like 3B Dermis Garcia and SS Hoy Jun Park, still have some prospect value. Not much, but some.

Garcia’s calling call remains (and always will be) his power. He moved down the defensive spectrum to first base last year — apparently he’s going to give third base another try this year — and plans to turn him into a two-way player were apparently put on hold. Dermis did throw bullpen sessions late last season but he never appeared in a game as a pitcher. Alas. Garcia will move up to High-A Tampa this year after two seasons with Low-A Charleston. Another year of contact and defensive issues mean you can probably close the book on his days as a serious prospect.

After Florial, Park probably has the best chance to reach the big leagues among 2014-15 signees. He’s a very good defensive middle infielder who draws a lot of walks and can steal bases, but is short on power and exit velocity. Power is tough to project these days because of changes to the baseball, so perhaps we shouldn’t ding Park too much. He has a chance to rebuild some prospect stock with Double-A Trenton this year. The concern is advanced pitchers will knock the bat out of his hands. This is a big year for Park.

IF Kyle Holder has Major League ready defensive tools, but he hasn’t hit much in his career to date, and we haven’t seen much progress either. To be fair to Holder, he dealt with serious injury (broken vertebrae) and off-the-field matters (his brother passed away) last season, so we should cut him a break on the lack of development. That said, he is a soon-to-be 25-year-old defensive wiz with little to offer at the plate. Another year without much offensive progress and it’ll be time to look ahead to other infield prospects.

I think OF Isiah Gilliam has reached make or break status as well. He’s closing in on his 23rd birthday and saw marked declines in his power output, his walk rate, and his strikeout rate after moving from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa last season. As a non-elite bat-only corner outfielder, it doesn’t take much to get left behind. Gilliam has to rebound with a strong season this year, likely back with Tampa, to avoid becoming an afterthought.

Prospects I Am Excited About

Gosh, there are lots. Seigler, Pereira, and Contreras are at the top of the list. I also can’t give up on RHP Luis Medina yet, even after he walked 46 batters in 36 rookie ball innings last year. Medina turns only 20 in May, and he lights up the radar gun with his fastball and has a knee-buckling high-spin curveball, and I just can’t give up on that despite the extreme control problems. Medina’s going to be a long-term project and I am willing to be patient because the upside is so great.

OF Raimfer Salinas should be in the Pereira and Cabello group — Salinas ($1.85M) received a larger signing bonus than Pereira ($1.4M) and Cabello ($1.35M), which tells you how much the Yankees like him — but finger and knee injuries cut short his pro debut last year. When healthy, he features an advanced approach at the plate with some power, as well as very good defensive chops. Salinas probably belongs in the “Breakout Candidates” group. I really like him. He has a lot of ability.

OF Pablo Olivares has long been a personal favorite with his “do everything well but nothing exceptionally” skill set. RHP Frank German and RHP Tanner Myatt are two 2018 draftees I like for different reasons. German has already gained velocity as a pro and features a nice little slider. Myatt is a huge (6-foot-7) extreme hard-thrower (up to 101 mph) with an occasionally great curveball. He reminds me a bit of Kyle Farnsworth, which I know will drive some people nuts, but Farnsworth played 16 years in the big leagues as a late-inning reliever. That would be a heck of an outcome for an 11th round pick like Myatt.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Of course they will. The Yankees are a win-now team, so if when they need help at the trade deadline, they will trade prospects in an effort to get over the hump. They did it the last two trade deadlines and there’s no reason to think they won’t do it again this year. That’s the entire point of a farm system. To help address big league roster needs, either by graduating prospects to the show, or by using them as trade chips.

To me, Nelson stands out as a potential trade candidate. He will be Rule 5 Draft after the season and I get the feeling he falls into the same category as Dillon Tate and Josh Rogers last year. The “good prospect the Yankees don’t really know what to do with who is on the 40-man roster bubble” group. The other Double-A arms like Abreu, Stephan, Whitlock could all become trade candidates given the club’s lack of high-end Triple-A talent. Double-A starters are the next best thing.

Even before the injury, I don’t think the Yankees would’ve hesitated for a second to trade Florial in the right deal. Would they give him away? No way. But Florial is their best chance to acquire an impact player on July 31st. As long as he comes back from the wrist injury well, his trade value should remain intact. The Yankees professed their love for Justus Sheffield right up until they traded him. I could see the same happening with Florial.

The Yankees traded 15 prospects in the days leading up to the last two trade deadlines. Some were big names (Blake Rutherford, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, etc.) and many were second and third tier guys (Josh Rogers, Billy McKinney, Luis Rijo, Zack Littell). I think the Yankees are at the point where no prospect is off-limits. I thought Gleyber Torres was untouchable as it gets two years ago. Now? There’s no one in the system like that. Not even close.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

Because the system is built mainly around pitching and very young low minors prospects, the Yankees have a boom or bust farm system right now. If the pitchers stay healthy and some of those teenagers figure it out, this could again be one of the top systems in baseball, and I mean as soon as next spring. The Yankees have gotten pretty good at developing players, thankfully. The chances of a farm system breakout in 2019 aren’t small.

Then again, if some of those pitchers get hurt — I have 18 pitchers in my top 30 prospects list and normal attrition suggests a few of them are going to feel something that requires a lengthy shutdown, that’s just baseball — and those teenagers need more than one or two pro seasons to hit their stride, the Yankees will again have a system ranked in the bottom half of the league next year. It’s not the end of the world, but a great farm system is a heck of a lot more fun than a mediocre one.

“I believe our system is one of the stronger ones in the game. It’s just the timing of everything. (The top talent) just happens to be at the lower levels. We are very pitching deep with a lot of high-end young arms,” said Brian Cashman to Randy Miller last month. “I’m not saying the system rankings are wrong. I will tell you this: As long as our guys stay healthy and develop the way we think they’re capable of developing, the system rankings are going to be radically different next year.”