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Which Farnsworth are we getting?

March 4, 2007 by Joe Pawlikowski 5 Comments

Thankfully for Kyle Farnsworth, Carl Pavano has dominated the “he needs to earn his keep” talk this winter and spring. But sooner or later, Farnsworth will return to the spotlight; it’s kind of inevitable when you’re being paid $17 million to pitch 65 or 70 innings per season. What we’re all wondering is whether there’s a chance that the Kyle Farnsworth of 2005 will appear this season, or if we’re stuck with v2006.

Because relief pitchers work with such small samples per season, they are prone to violent swings of luck. Farnsworth is a perfect example of this. His ERAs since 2000, when he switched to full-time relief: 6.43, 2.74, 7.33, 3.30, 4.73, 2.32, 4.36. What the hell caused such fluctuation, particularly between the 2.32 and the 4.36 (what we paid for vs. what we got)?

We can scan the statistics all you want. Yes, his strikeouts per nine was slightly below his norm (10.23 in ’06 vs. north of 11 in his better years), he allowed an above-average .314 batting average on balls in play, and he displayed extreme flyball tendencies (0.78, which is alarmingly bad).

Anyone who watched him pitch, though, can give you the underlying reason for these trends: he hung the crap out of his slider. As if that wasn’t enough, he also chose to throw said hanging slider far too often, especially for a guy who throws 98 m.p.h. with ease, 101 when he needs a little something extra.

Perhaps to compensate for a pitch he didn’t control well last year, Farns is reportedly working on a changeup this spring. He probably hasn’t broken that out since his days as a starter, so I can’t imagine it being much more effective than his slider, which can only improve from last year. According to the man himself, it may not even be an issue this year:

“I think the main thing is that I was trying to be too perfect,” said Farnsworth, who went 3-6 with a 4.36 ERA in his first year with the Yankees. “A lot of times I found myself trying to be a pitcher instead of just doing what I do best.”

What he doesn’t do best is throw a changeup. Keeping the fastball low (and hence induce more groundballs) and throwing a few sliders to keep hitters honest will be the keys to Farnsworth’s return to form in 2007. And he’s right: he’s not a pitcher. He’s a thrower, so throw the freakin’ heat.

Unfortunately, the team is somewhat dependent on him. He’s at the back of the bullpen, but at this point I feel uncomfortable with him there. He of course has a chance at redemption — some people take a while to adjust in New York. I’m just very concerned that we’re stuck Farnsworth v2006 for the next two years.

Photo: SI.com

Filed Under: Pitching Tagged With: Kyle Farnsworth

Minor League Q & A

March 2, 2007 by Mike 6 Comments

I enlisted two of my fellow Yankee prospect bloggers to help me out on this one, and I’m sure you’re familiar with both of them: Fabian of RLYW fame, and EJ from Pinstripe Potentials, who will eventually take over that other blog I was at. I wanted to do something interesting and different, but keep it simple, so I just asked them some questions about the Yanks farm system, they answered, and I posted. Done and done.

I’ve been sitting on this for nearly a month now, but between the move to RAB and the heavy work load at the ol’ 9-to-5, there just wasn’t time to put this together. Both EJ’s and Fabian’s responses are nearly a month old, which is entirely my fault, so if something sounds outdated to you, blame it on me. Enjoy.

1) We all know Phil Hughes is a stud, the best Yankee prospect since…blah blah blah. What do you realistically expect from the kid in 2007? How do you think the media will react if he struggles in his first couple big league outings, just like he has every other time he’s moved up a level?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Minors

It’s sad really…

March 2, 2007 by Mike 1 Comment

Matt Cerrone of MetsBlog’s reaction to the Top 100 Prospects list:

…so, the Yankees have the best pitching prospect in baseball…i wonder how they’ll mess that up…

He’s kidding, right?

Little brother stoops to an even lower level…

Filed Under: Minors

Isn’t it beautiful?

March 1, 2007 by Benjamin Kabak 7 Comments

It’s the first box score of the year. Baseball’s back.

Filed Under: Asides

Top 100 List

March 1, 2007 by Mike 1 Comment

BA released their Top 100 prospects list, with 5 Yankee prospects making the cut:

#4 Phil Hughes (behind Dice-K, Alex Gordon and Delmon Young, just ahead of Homer Bailey)

As good as Chien-Ming Wang has been, this homegrown ace will be even better
Opening Day Age: 20. ETA: 2007

#27 Jose Tabata

Friendly rivalry with Martinez began last season in low Class A and will pick up soon in New York.
Opening Day Age: 18. ETA: 2009

#57 Humberto Sanchez

Key piece to Gary Sheffield trade could help New York as a starter or a reliever this year
Opening Day Age: 24. ETA: 2007

#75 Joba Chamberlain

Highest-drafted Native American ever could be a steal with the 41st overall pick last June
Opening Day Age: 21. ETA: 2008

#100 Dellin Betances

He’s raw, but he also has good stuff and plenty of projection remaining.
Opening Day Age: 19. ETA: 2010

Not a bad job with yesterday’s guesswork I’d say… 

Filed Under: Minors

My guesses at the Top 100

February 28, 2007 by Mike 9 Comments

Baseball America will be releasing their annual Top 100 Prospects list tomorrow, so I thought I’d have a little fun and try to predict what Yankee farmhands will make the list. You can find BA’s top 10 Yankee prospects (pre-Sheff and Unit deals, and pre-Garcia and Melancon injuries) here.

Phil Hughes – he’s the shit, and lock for the top 10, nevermind the list. I’ll guess number 5, with Dice-K, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young and Brandon Wood ahead of him, and Homer Bailey breathing down his neck. He won’t be eligible for the list next year.

Jose Tabata – also the shit, albeit a not as advanced version. Before the nagging hand injury, I’d have guessed he’d be in the 15-20 range, but now I’m thinking 25-30. Amongst outfielders, he’ll be behind (in no particular order) the Youngs (Delmon and Chris), Jay Bruce, Andrew McCutchen (the best prospect no one is talking about, the kid had a .853 OPS at AA as a 19-yr old last year for chrissakes), Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton and probably Fernando Martinez.

Humberto Sanchez – the lack of durability is a concern, but he’s got an electric arm. He needs to lose some weight and tighten up his mechanics if he wants to stick in the rotation, but he could be a poor man’s Joel Zumaya (as in he’ll only hit 97-98 instead of 100-101 with each pitch) out of the pen. I see him slotting into the 50-55 range, littered amongst the Chuck Lofrgens and Jacob McGees of the world.

Dellin Betances – I think he’ll sneak onto the list, somewhere in the 95-100 range. You may laugh now, but look for a 80-85 spot jump for Betances in the 2008 list. Amongst ’06 prep pitcher draftees, I see only Betances, Kasey Kiker and Clayton Kershaw making the list. Sorry Kyle Drabek, but you’re too much of a brat.

Joba Chamberlain – He’s on the fringe, and if he made it it would be as number 99 or 100. It’s ok, he could the Yanks secret weapon.

Ian Kennedy, Tyler Clippard and JB Cox are the longshots, putting it nicely.

There’s alot of truly great minor leaguers out there nowadays; the generation that followed the Yankee Dynasty and Summer of ’98 as pre-teens are all starting to graduate high school or head into their junior years of college. Just for fun, here’s my list of the top 10 prospects in baseball (not counting that Japanese guy):

  1. Alex Gordon
  2. Delmon Young
  3. Phil Hughes – jumps a spot because the next guy changed positions
  4. Brandon Wood
  5. Homer Bailey
  6. Tim Lincecum – there’s no better potential 1-2 combo in the game right now than Cain-Lincecum. He’s filthy.
  7. Cameron Maybin
  8. Jay Bruce
  9. Andrew McCutchen
  10. Yovani Gallardo – every bit as good as Hughes and Bailey in 2006, but no one really noticed

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: Prospect Lists

Ah, nuts. Yes, again

February 28, 2007 by Joe Pawlikowski Leave a Comment

The official site has Humberto Sanchez out two to four days with an inflammed elbow. Pete Abraham reports that he’s out “10 days or so.”

Any pipe dream of Sanchez making the Opening Day roster seem to be out the window, not because he’ll be injured, but because he might not get enough work in. Not that it was going to happen, anyway.

Taking 10 days off sounds like the best idea at this point. Better to resign him to Scranton and let him heal fully, rather than rush him back and risk further injury. He does have a history of elbow troubles…

Filed Under: Asides Tagged With: Humberto Sanchez

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