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The Cliff Lee connection

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Cliff Lee pitches in the 2002 AA All Star Game as a member of the Akron Arrows. Credit: AP Photo John Spivey

Since the Rangers downed the Tampa Bay Rays to earn the right to face the Yankees in the ALCS, most of the coverage has focused around Cliff Lee. The Yanks had to beat Lee’s team last year to win the World Series; they almost traded for him three months ago; and they plan to go hard after him this winter when the southpaw hits free agency. It’s a tailor-made situation for a compelling story, and Lee’s story has led sports sections from Arlington to Armonk.

In response to the over-the-top Cliff Lee-Mania, RAB reader Richard Iurilli launched a Twitter phenomenon. “Cliff Lee throws so hard, he can throw a baseball around the world and strike himself out,” he said. The kicker though was was the hashtag: #cliffleefacts. Said Joe Auriemma, “Cliff Lee can win a game of Connect Four in only three moves.” Said Kelsey O’Donnell, “The apocalypse would come if Cliff Lee EVER loses a game.” And on and on it went.

Yet, it’s impossible to talk about the impending American League Championship Series without revisiting July 8, the day Cliff Lee maybe, kinda, sorta almost became a Yankee. In The Post today, Joel Sherman, seemingly the most connected of New York reporters, goes back inside the Cliff Lee negotiations, and for the most part, it’s a story we know well. The Mariners were desperate to pry Justin Smoak from the Rangers, and they either wanted Eduardo Nuñez or Ivan Nova to join Jesus Montero instead of David Adams or were willing to use the Yanks to put the pressure on Texas GM Jon Daniels. Depending upon who you ask, a deal with the Yanks was on the verge of completion. “We had him,” Brian Cashman said to Sherman. “We had a deal in principle pending physicals.”

Sherman sheds some light on the process:

Around 9 p.m. Eastern Time on July 8, Seattle agreed with the Yankeees to accept Montero, Adams and righty Zach McAllister for Lee, and the sides swapped medical info. Around 3 a.m. Zduriencik called Cashman to say Seattle team doctors were concerned about Adams’ right ankle. This confused the Yankees. Adams had been out since injuring his ankle sliding May 23, yet the Mariners kept insisting he had to be included and the Yankees only relented that night.

Seattle’s concerns proved valid, as subsequent tests weeks later revealed a fracture and not a sprain for Adams.
Over the next several hours Seattle asked the Yankees to replace Adams. The Yankees offered touted righty Adam Warren. The Mariners said either Nova or Nunez must be the replacement, which was their initial position a week earlier. Cashman refused, stating the Yankees would not yield significantly more to get Lee for half a season than Philadelphia had given Cleveland to obtain Lee for a season and a half or Seattle had given Philadelphia to get Lee for a season.

Also, the Yankees came to believe Seattle had not shut down conversations with Texas. There are no written rules, but general protocol is that once a deal in principle is reached, then the trading teams go silent with other clubs.

Yankee fans spent the day waiting for the trade to become official on the 9th, and it never did. Now, instead of pitching Game 2 of the ALCS for the Yankees, Lee will face them in Game 3 on Monday night in the Bronx. “So be it,” Cashman said. “If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. We will find out in who has the best team. I have no regrets. I am comfortable with not [completing the trade]. In time we will learn if that was the right thing to do.”

In his 3UP post today, Sherman discussed Lee at length and compared it to the Johan Santana situation. A few years ago, we lobbied hard against a trade that would have sent Phil Hughes along with at least Ian Kennedy and one or two other pieces to the Twins for Johan Santana, but this time around, I was more comfortable with the Lee trade. I can’t speak for Joe or Mike here, but I worried about the Yanks’ blown opportunity. I worried about Lee’s future with another team, and I worried that Jesus Montero might just be a little bit overhyped. After all, even though the magazine ranked him the fourth-best International League prospect this year, Baseball America says his defense is highly suspect. If Montero is only a bat but not a catcher, his future value declines.

Of course, the Yankees have a plan, and they’re going to stick to it. Brian Cashman knows that, as Tyler Kepner noted, when it comes to free agency, the Yanks get their guy. They got Mike Mussina and Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. To the Yankees, money isn’t an obstacle, and if the only thing that separates them from Cliff Lee is two weeks of the playoffs and a $110-million contract, so be it.

Still, even though Lee won’t take the mound for another four days, his presence looms over this ALCS. He is Texas’ savior, an ace they haven’t had in decades, if ever, and he’s the almost-was for the Yankees. Nearly a member of the team in July, Cliff Lee will once again try to stop the Yankees from winning a World Series for what hopefully will be the last time before he joins them.

ALCS Scouting Reports

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Right before the ALDS started, we took a look at some advanced scouting reports provided by the MSM, and sure enough they held true. The Yankees’ powerful offense took advantage of Minnesota’s pitch-to-contact heavy pitching staff, and when Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes turned in gems behind CC Sabathia, the Twins had no chance.

Now that the Yanks have moved on to the ALCS, let’s look at Keith Law’s (Insider req’d) and Frankie Piliere’s scouting reports for Texas. As you’d expect, both mention that the Rangers will only go as far as Josh Hamilton and Cliff Lee take them. Beyond the two superstars, they need C.J. Wilson to not pitch himself into trouble with walks, which seems obvious enough. Their lineup isn’t terribly deep, with Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler representing the only real threats behind Hamilton. Vlad Guerrero, who had a monster first half, wOBA’d just .327 from July on. Make sure you check the links out, plus this one with four key ALCS matchups courtesy of Piliere.

Gerry Davis set to lead ALCS umping crew

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Twenty-seven year MLB veteran Gerry Davis will be the crew chief for the ALCS, Major League Baseball announced today. This is Davis’ 21st career postseason series and his eighth League Championship Series. Joining Davis around the bases and in the outfield will be Brian Gorman, Angel Hernandez, Fieldin Culbreth, Jim Reynolds and Tony Randazzo. MLB has yet announced the home plate umpire rotation for the series.

By and large, Davis and his crew are a great of controversy-free umpires, and one of them — Culbreth — drew the ALCS last year. But the inclusion of Angel Hernandez raises some eyebrows. Hernandez was one of the who resigned in 1999 but managed to retain his job despite being bad at it. He has constantly ranked among the dregs of the MLB umps and was voted third-worst by the players in 2006. Yankee fans may remember him as the ump who ejected Joba Chamberlain for missing Kevin Youkilis with a pitch and the guy responsible for some early-season gripes from Red Sox fans.

The Rangers’ Weaknesses

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Right before the ALDS started we took a look at some of the Twins’ weaknesses and how the Yanks could exploit them. They pretty much manhandled Minnesota during all three games, so a marginal gain here or there wasn’t a big deal. Delmon Young did go 4-for-12 in the series, though one of those hits was on the Greg Golson shoestring non-catch in Game One. He didn’t drive in a single run and had as many extra base hits as double plays grounded into. The Yanks didn’t steal off Carl Pavano or take advantage of Jason Kubel’s arm, but in the end they didn’t need to.

With the ALCS a day away, it’s time to break down the flaws in the Rangers’ game, and figure out how the Yanks can take advantage of them.

Elvis Andrus’ “Power”

Just a single. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

The production of American League shortstops really fell off a cliff this season, as Alexei Ramirez paced the circuit with a .322 wOBA and 3.8 fWAR. Just one other shortstop eclipsed 3.0 fWAR, and just four total were over 2.0. It wasn’t just Derek Jeter having a down year, the position as a whole hit a one (or more) year slump.

Another one of those AL shortstops is Andrus, who followed up a very strong .322 wOBA, 3.1 fWAR rookie season with a .298, 1.5 effort this year. He started the season off very well, hitting .324/.410/.382 in the first eleven games, at which point Ron Washington moved him to the leadoff spot. Andrus has hit there ever since, and finished the season with a good but not great .342 OBP. Here’s the thing though, he has no power. I mean nothing.

Among the 270 players that had at least 300 plate appearances this season, Andrus’ .036 ISO was dead last. Behind famed noodle bats like Cesar Izturis (.038), Juan Pierre (.041), and David Eckstein (.059). If you don’t know what ISO is, it stands for isolated power and is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. It removes singles and gives you extra base power only, and Andrus was literally the worst power hitter in the game this year. For perspective, Brett Gardner had a .103 ISO this year. That’s how little of a threat Andrus is with the stick.

Now, he does make up for that lack of power a tiny bit with his legs, swiping 32 bases on the year (he also got caught 15 times, a poor 68.1% success rate). The worst Andrus will do is bloop in a single and steal a base, so Yankee pitchers can’t get cute and try to get him to chase stuff off the plate, possibly leading to a walk. Just go right at him and make him beat you. Chances are he won’t.

The Bottom Of The Order

Long gone are the days of the juggernaut Texas offense, the one that averaged 893 runs a year and topped 920 runs three times in a six year stretch from 1996 to 2001. Those teams were led by in-their-prime versions of Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, and Juan Gonzalez, among others. The 2010 Rangers’ offense is good, obviously, but after the top six batters (Andrus, Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler) their lineup thins out considerably.

(AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Assuming Hamilton plays center, either David Murphy, Jeff Francoeur, or Julio Borbon will play left (or right with Cruz moving to left, whatever). Murphy did some damage against the Yanks during the season and is the biggest threat out of that trio, but he struggles against lefties (.311 wOBA) and the Yanks are starting two of them in the first three games. Frenchy will murder a mistake pitch over the plate, but other than that he’s awful. He finished the season with a dead even .300 OBP. Terrible. Borbon is similar to Andrus in that he has no power (.064 ISO) and will steal you blind (15 steals, but again seven caught stealings for a 68.2% success rate, bad), but unlike the shortstop he won’t get on base enough (.309 OBP) for his legs to have an impact.

After the third outfielder comes the catcher, which will be either Bengie Molina (.275 wOBA, .283 with Texas) or Matt Treanor (.268). Yikes. Jorge Cantu was so awful after the trade that brought him to Texas (.270 wOBA) that Mitch Moreland plays first base full-time now, and he’s a zero against lefthanders (.279 wOBA, .368 vs. RHP). Again, CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte will start two of the first three games, and three of the first five. It’s not exactly the Brendan Harris-Nick Punto-Matt Tolbert trio that the Twins used at the bottom of their order in last year’s ALDS, but Texas’ last three batters are unlikely to do any damage unless the Yankee pitchers make mistakes.

C.J. Wilson’s Walks

As good as the Rangers’ other lefty ace was this season, and he was certainly very good (3.56 FIP), Wilson did lead the league with 93 walks, zero of which were intentional. He’s got swing-and-miss stuff, but he’s prone to falling behind and putting guys on base without making them swing the bat, something that plays right into the Yankees’ hands. If they’re their usually patient selves and force Wilson to throw strikes rather than chase pitches out of the zone, it’ll be a short night for the lefty, as it was in the three times he started against them this season (14.1 IP, 11 runs, 29 baserunners).

Middle Relief

(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Texas has a quality rotation, a pair of good matchup relievers in The Darrens (O’Day and Oliver), and a hard throwing (yet a little green) closer in Neftali Feliz. Between the starters and the late inning arms though, there’s a chance for the Yanks to pounce.

Lefties Derek Holland and Matt Harrison are almost carbon copies of each other. Both throw hard (Holland’s average fastball was 92.1 mph this year, Harrison 92.2) and will walk plenty of batters (3.8 and 4.5 BB/9’s, respectively). Holland does miss more bats though (8.5 K/9 compared to Harrison’s 5.3 mark), so at least he has that going for him. Alexi Ogando is a power righty that struck out 8.4 batters per nine in 2010, but he also walked 3.5 per nine and was significantly worse against lefties (5.23 FIP) than righties (2.07). Righty Dustin Nippert is a walk (5.4 BB/9) and homer (1.1 HR/9) machine, so gimme a piece of that.

There’s a reason that Wilson was available in relief in Game Five and Lee in Game Three, it’s because Texas’ bridge between the starter and setup crew is held together by duct tape and a prayer. If the Yanks knock a starter out early, it could get ugly fast for the Rangers.

* * *

It was a little easier to spot the holes in Texas’ game than it was with the Twins, so maybe that’s a good thing. It’s all up the Yanks to take advantage though, and given how they thoroughly dismantled Minnesota last round, I suspect they will.

Mailbag: The A.J. Auto-Loss Myth

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So the Daily News already has an article up about how pitching AJ Burnett will end up costing the Yankees. I don’t understand why…if the Yankees are up or down 3-0, there’s not a chance Girardi doesn’t go with Sabathia in Game 4. Wouldn’t Sabathia pitch Game 4 anyways with AJ getting the ball in Game 5?

Here is said Daily News article. I suggest not reading it, I’ll instead summarize it with blah blah blah A.J. Burnett will cost them the series blah blah blah he stinks blah blah blah. There’s also some cliches in there and the typical doomsday scenario talk. Fresh and original, you know. Nothing but the best.

Anyway, back to reality.

Look, A.J. Burnett was awful this year. He gave the Yankees no chance to win in almost half his starts, and in half of the remaining half he was slightly better than bad. There’s no denying this, and there’s no going back in history to change things or any amount of anything that can make people feel more comfortable about his Game Four start. But guess what, he’s going to start that game, and anyone that thinks it’s an automatic loss needs to get a grip on reality.

Changeup! (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Burnett pitched to a 4.83 FIP over the course of the 162-game regular season, slightly better than the 4.99 FIP put up by Rangers’ Game Four starter Tommy Hunter. Over the last three months and change A.J. had a 4.71 FIP, Hunter 5.47. If there’s anyone in the Texas rotation that you want to start Burnett against, it’s Hunter because he is every bit as likely (if not more given the lineup he’ll be facing) to blow up in horrific fashion. You don’t start A.J. in Game Three against Cliff Lee with the mindset of “well they’ll probably lose to Lee and lose Burnett’s start, so they can kill two birds with one stone,” that completely defeats the purpose. The idea is to beat the Rangers and Cliff Lee, not make easy for them. If you’re willing to do that, then just go root for the Mets, it’s a loser mentality.

The Yankees already have the pitching advantage in Game One and it’s no worse than a push in Game Two. There’s nothing they can do about Lee, he’s going to pitch and chances are he’ll be awesome. It’s what the guy does. They don’t have to beat him though, they have to beat the Rangers. Texas had a five run lead against the Yanks in the sixth inning of this game with Lee on the mound, and you know what? They lost. You know why? Because the Yanks chipped away and then punished the Rangers’ bullpen once their ace lefty was out of the game. Andy Pettitte doesn’t have to beat Cliff Lee in Game Three, he just has to keep the Yankees within striking distance. Then it’s up to the offense to do their thing late in the game, just like they did in the ALDS. It’s doable.

Remember, the Yankee pitching staff is in better shape right now than it was last year in the playoffs, when they beat a Cliff Lee led team in the World Series (a team that was better overall than this Rangers’ club, by the way). There was no Phil Hughes then, and they had no choice but to start Burnett every five days (and once on short rest). The regular season is a marathon, but the playoffs are a relay race, a series of one game sprints where literally anything can happen. There’s no better embodiment of that “anything can happen in one start” phenomenon than Burnett, who on any given day can surrender eight runs in two innings or no runs in nine innings. He’s a roll of the dice every time he touches the mound, and that inconsistency is why he’s starting Game Four, not Game One or Two.

If the Yanks do lose the ALCS, it won’t be because of Burnett’s one start. He’s one of 25, and if they drop three of the other six (potential) games in the series, then a whole lot more went wrong than A.J. They’ll win as a team and lose as a team, as they should. No one shoulders the blame by themselves. It’s trendy to trash Burnett, just like it was trendy to trash Joe Girardi in September and say the Yanks would be one and done in the playoffs because of how horribly they struggled. Look how that turned out.

Anyway, there’s my rant for the night. As for the actual question, yeah, I’m pretty sure they’d start Sabathia in Game Four if they were down three games to none. They’d have no choice, and frankly they would have much bigger problems than worrying about Burnett in that situation.

Yankees announce ALCS roster and rotation

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Via Bryan Hoch, the Yankees have announced their roster and rotation for the upcoming American League Championship Series. The roster is unchanged, it’ll be the same 25 guys they played with against the Twins, but the rotation is slightly different. CC Sabathia will of course go in Game One, but Phil Hughes will get the ball in Game Two, not Andy Pettitte. Pettitte and A.J. Burnett will then start Games Three and Four, respectively. I assume that the only way Sabathia will pitch on short rest in Game Four is if the Yanks are down three games to none in the series.

Hughes has superb numbers in Arlington for his career, but that covers about 15 innings spread across four seasons. I suspect that had little value when they put the rotation together, and it had more to do with lining up Pettitte for matchups with Cliff Lee.

For the ALCS, an expensive ticket and a promo

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Our partners at TiqIQ have some graphs — and tickets — for the upcoming American League Championship Series. The above graph came out before Major League Baseball announced that Game 5 would be an afternoon affair, but as you can see, tickets start out expensive and get even more so as the series progresses. Notably, TiqIQ says that over the five days prior to Game 3 of the ALDS, ticket prices shot up by more than 60 percent. If it looks like the Yanks are going to clinch or if the series is tight, tickets will be in higher demand.

While the gist of the graph below is that bleacher seats are still cheaper than the rest of the park, even sitting behind the outfield walls will cost a pretty penny for the postseason. Average resale prices for the bleachers is in excess of $200 a seat, but it’s well worth the experience. I saw Game 2 of the 1998 ALCS from the bleachers at old Yankee Stadium, and the crowd erupted when Chuck Knoblauch’s mental error cost the Yanks the game.

As always, we have a wide array of tickets available for these games at RAB Tickets, and despite the high average prices, bleacher seats can be hard for around $100-$120 a pop right now. We’re also running a promo for the week. If you make a purchase of $500 or more on Ticket Network only — basically the equivalent of two tickets for one game — put in the code rab28 for a 5 percent discount. Finally, if you’re interested in tickets in Texas for Games 1 or 2, we have those available as well. You can find ALCS Game 1 seats right here and ALCS Game 2 seats here.