Via the Winnipeg Free Press, the Yankees have agreed to terms with their pre-arbitration eligible players, meaning guys with less than three years of service time. There’s 18 players in all, but the notables include Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Al Aceves, David Robertson, and Brett Gardner. No word on the money, but they’re all close to the $400,000 league minimum I’m sure. Joba and Hughes might be over $500,000 by now, and both will be looking at seven figures in their first year of arbitration eligibility in 2011.
For 2010, what role Aceves?
It’s sometimes hard to believe that Alfredo Aceves, the forgotten man out of Spring Training who didn’t arrive in the Bronx until May last year, finished with the fourth most wins on the Yankees. He always seemed to enter the game at exactly the right time, and he ended up with 10 wins and just one loss.
In many respects, Alfredo Aceves’ 2009 campaign helps highlight a lot of statistical platitudes about pitching. Relief wins are rather meaningless when some of them come in extra innings and others are brought about by virtue of long relief, multiple-inning appearances. He did, as Steve Lombardi wrote at Was Watching over the weekend, vulture his wins.
As a Posnanskian aside, Aceves’ 2009 splits also show how pitchers’ numbers respond to luck. In the first half, he threw 43.1 innings, allowed 34 hits, walked nine and struck out 7.5 per 9 IP. His ERA was 2.49. In the second half, he threw 40.2 innings, allowed 35 hits, walked eight and struck out 7.3 per 9 IP. Despite allowing fewer home runs and sporting a WHIP just 0.065 higher in the second half, his ERA over those 40.2 innings sat at 4.65. Luck changed, and his ERA settled in at a respectable 3.54 for the season.
Basically, Aceves was an above-average reliever, Lombardi says, who won more games than he probably should have. As Steve rightly points out, the odds of Aceves doing that again are slim, and he says, “Let’s hope the Yankees aren’t banking a repeat of this from Aceves this season.”
Now, I don’t wish to denigrate Alfredo Aceves. He turned in a very respectable season for the Yanks after spending a month at AAA. He had a WXRL of 2.522 and an ARP of 12.9. By many respects, he was the Yanks’ third most valuable reliever in 2009 due to his high innings total and relatively high-leverage usage. He can get a ground ball; he can get a K; he can throw short stints or make long appearances. All in all, he’s a very good guy to have.
But the Yankees know Aceves’ limitations as well. His shoulder started barking in late July, and he seemed to hit a mid-summer wall. He was not very consistent in limited October use and, as any pitcher, fares better against less patient hitters. How will the Yanks use him in 2010?
Well, from the start, Aceves will see his spot on the depth charts bumped down a bit. The Yankees will, in all likelihood, head into 2010 with Mariano Rivera as the closer, either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain as the primary setup man, David Robertson as the go-to strike out guy, Damaso Marte as the lefty specialist and Chad Gaudin as the primary long reliever. Aceves stands to be the sixth guy out of the pen and the Yanks’ seventh or eighth starter.
In the end, the Mexican Gangster adds some depth the Yankees’ bullpen. He does a good job of keeping hitters off base and generally keeps the ball in the park. He’s versatile and adopted well to different roles. With Javier Vazquez around, the improvement to Yanks’ pitching staff trickles down the bullpen, and the team should, if all goes according to plan, not need Aceves to swoop in and nab those vulture wins this year.
Above: Al Aceves pitches against the Orioles in July. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
What Went Right: The Bullpen Makeover
Over the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.
The Yankees came into 2009 feeling good about their bullpen. After all, the same cast of characters posted the seventh lowest ERA (3.79), second lowest FIP (3.82), second best strikeout rate (8.66 K/9), and tenth best walk rate (3.53 BB/9) in the league last year. Unfortunately, that group of relievers was unable to repeat that performance in the first month of this season. Their FIP in April was awful (5.41) and their ERA even worse (6.46), and it was a major reason why the team was in third place with a negative run differential on May 1st.
Thankfully, the Yanks had enough bullpen depth to not just replace one or two pieces, but to make wholesale changes. The first step in the makeover came on April 25th, when Phil Hughes was summoned from Triple-A to take over for the injured Chien-Ming Wang. Al Aceves replaced the overmatched Anthony Claggett on May 5th, and David Robertson took the place of the injured Brian Bruney three weeks later. Edwar Ramirez and his 33 baserunners allowed (6 homer!) in 17.1 IP was banished to the minors mid-May, and Jose Veras was mercifully designated for assignment a little later on.
After allowing three earned runs or less in five of his seven starts, Hughes shifted to the bullpen in early June to make way for Wang. He became the primary setup man to Mariano Rivera in short order, allowing everyone else in the bullpen to settle into roles more suitable for their skills. Hughes held opponents to a .172-.228-.228 batting line as a reliever, posting a ridiculous 65-13 K/BB ratio and an unfathomable 1.83 FIP after moving to the bullpen.
Aceves, meanwhile, became Joe Girardi’s jack of all trades. He was used in long relief, short relief, in matchup situations, you name it. He allowed less than a baserunner per inning, and his 80.2 IP as a reliever was the most by a Yankee since Scott Proctor’s 100.2 IP back in 2006. Aceves effectively bridged the middle innings gap from the starter to Phil Hughes all by himself.
Most teams would be happy with a pair of guys like Hughes and Aceves in their bullpen, but the Yankees didn’t stop there. Rookie David Robertson developed from promising prospect into a bullpen force, leading all American League pitchers by striking out 12.98 batters per 9 IP (the second place guy, Joakim Soria, was more than a full strikeout behind him).
Once all of the new pieces were in place, the Yankee bullpen went from weakness in April to strength the rest of the way. They finished the year with a solid 3.91 ERA, and placed second in the league in strikeout rate (8.44 K/9) and third in walk rate (3.46 BB/9). The names had to be changed, but Girardi’s bullpen once again finished the season as one of the strongest in the game.
Photo Credits: Getty Images, Reuters Pictures, AP
The dangers of having starters relieve
When Alfredo Aceves made an emergency start on July 9 in Minnesota, he did so under a strict pitch count, and he quickly reached his 65-pitch limit. For Aceves, it wasn’t a season high. That total came in his season debut when he threw 70 pitches against the Red Sox on May 4. It was, however, a recent high at the time, and he hasn’t approached that figure since early July.
In the three weeks leading up to that start, he threw five and nine pitches on back-to-back days, had two days off and then threw 43 pitches. He enjoyed another two-day rest before throwing 33 pitches. Then he had four full days off and threw five and 35 pitches before a two-day stint on the bench. On July 5, four days prior to his start, he threw 43 pitches.
Since July 9, we’ve heard a lot about Aceves’ various physical ailments. In late July, he spoke of a sore shoulder, and he hasn’t been as effective after the All Star Break as he was before. Many pixels have been burned discussing Aceves’ usage and health, and late last week, Mike looked at how Aceves has had few clunkers that inflate his numbers. As Ace has been outpitching his FIP all season, Mike noted, this period of mediocrity could just be the ever-popular market correction.
After his poor outing against the Red Sox on Sunday, Aceves spoke to reporters about his well-being, and as Peter Abraham reported, Aceves is feeling banged up. “I think my body is adjusting,” he said of relieving.
Aceves had been a starter for his entire Mexican League career and last year with the Yankees. This is the first year he has pitched out of the bullpen, and according to Abraham, Aceves feel it has “taken a physical toll.” After recovering from his sore shoulder, Aceves is now dealing with a sore lower back. “It’s not perfect, but I can pitch,” Aceves said to The Journal-News reporter. “This is my job now. I think I’m going to be fine.”
While the Yankees, on a micro level, need Aceves’ versatile down the stretch, on a macro level, his complaints provide a glimpse into the world of starters-turned-relievers. As Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain have shown, good pitchers make for great relievers. It’s easier for a pitcher to use his best pitches in short stints. He doesn’t have to mix and match to fool hitters during the second or third time through the lineup.
Yet, that transition is not without its risks. For starters used to the physical toll of a five-man rotation — start, ice, rest, throw day, rest, start — life in the bullpen is of a different nature. Pitchers have to prepare to go long but may faced with a five-pitch or nine-pitching outing. They may get the call on consecutive days or on opposite ends of a calendar week.
As the Yankees confront the reality of Phil Hughes in the bullpen and Joba Chamberlain in the starting rotation, the coaches and training staff are well aware of the physical toll of relief work. It’s why they don’t want to put Joba in the bullpen to cap his innings. How they handle Aceves down the stretch should provide a glimpse into how they plan to approach Phil Hughes’ transition back to the rotation next year. Meanwhile, with a seven-game lead and a Magic Number of 32, the Yanks can afford to rest Ace as his physical ailments require. Better now than in October.
What’s up with Aceves?
More often than not, Al Aceves has gotten the job done whenever Joe Girardi called on him this year. He was dynamite in the first half, posting a 2.49 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a .637 OPS against in his first 22 outings. Opposing batters haven’t been too kind to Mr. Aceves since then, tattooing him to the tune of a 7.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 appearances since. Most point to his spot start in Minnesota and the shoulder fatigue/soreness that followed as the problem (correlation =/= causation!), but Aceves’ velocity is fine, and that’s the primary indicator of shoulder trouble.
The reality is that Aceves has had just three really bad outings since the break that are inflating his ERA. Let’s take a look at them one by one:
July 18th vs Detroit: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 15 pitches
With the Yanks up 2-0 (this was the Sabathia-Verlander duel), Aceves entered the game in the 8th and retired the first two batters (Placido Polanco & Miguel Cabrera) before giving up a solo jack to ex-Yank Marcus Thames. He retired Magglio Ordonez to end the inning and that was that. Hit Tracker says Thames’ shot would have been gone in a total of nine big league parks, but whatever. Thames has 38 homers in his last 564 plate appearances (not quite a full season’s worth), so the dude can crush the ball. Giving up a solo jack to him is no big deal in my book.
July 20th vs. Baltimore: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 11 pitches
Game tied at one in the top of the ninth, Aceves comes in with one out and Adam Jones on first after being plunked by Phil Coke. Jones stealssecond, but Melvin Mora pops out to center for the second out. Aceves is ordered to intentionally walk the molten hot Luke Scott (.310-.403-.638 in his previous 16 games), and then gets Nolan Reimold to fly out to left. Hideki Matsui homers in the bottom of the ninth and Aceves walk-offs with a win.
July 21st vs. Baltimore: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 12 pitches
With the Yanks up 6-4 in the 6th, Aceves comes in with a man on first and two outs. He gets Matt Wieters to fly out to left to end the inning, then sits down Cesar Izturis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones in the 7th without incident. Done and done.
July 25th vs Oakland: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 13 pitches
Andy Pettitte departs with the bases loaded and one out, and Aceves gets the first batter he faces to pop out to first. Landon Powell singles to left on an 0-2 count (you may remember this pitch, it was a hanger right out over the plate that was flared over Jeter), Adam Kennedy singles back up the middle, and Orlando Cabrera drilled a double into right. K-Rob™ comes in and cleans the mess up. Aceves gets rocked.
On July 28th, we first learn of Aceves fatigued wing.
July 31st @ White Sox: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 39 pitches
Aceves starts the sixth with the Yanks down 6-5. He retires Scott Podsednik, Gordon Beckham, and Jim Thome on two fly balls and a groundout. He walks Paul Konerko to lead off the seventh, then gives up a single to AJ Pierzysnki. Carlos Quentin and Mark Kotsay then fly out, but Jayson Nix walks in a well fought eight pitch at bat. Chris Getz singles in two runs, then Nix steals home when Jorge Posada throws to second on Getz’s steal attempt. Podsednik singles through the 3.5 hole for another run and Aceves’ day is done. Two straight clunkers.
August 5th @ Toronto: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 25 pitches
With the Yanks up 3-2 in the sixth, Ace sits down Edwin Encarnacion, Rod Barajas, and Joe Inglett down in order on two strikeouts and a little dribbler that landed in front of the plate. Marco Scutaro homers to lead off the seventh after the Yanks tack on three more runs, then Aaron Hill hits a weak liner to short for an out. Phil Coke comes in to face the lefties Adam Lind and Lyle Overbay. Not a terrible outing, not a great one. Acceptable.
August 7th vs. Boston: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 37 pitches
The 15-inning marathon game. Aceves walks Chris Woodward, then allows a single to Jacoby Ellsbury after two quick ground outs. He retires the next seven batters in order with only one ball leaving the infield. Well done.
August 10th vs. Toronto: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 42 pitches
Enters the game in the sixth with Toronto up 5-4. Sets down the side in order in his first inning of work, then gives up singles with two outs in the seventh to Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. He sets down the next seven in order. Again, well done. It’s probably worth noting that with this game, Aceves had thrown 104 pitches in three outings over the last six days.
August 16th # Seattle: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 48 pitches
His only other real stinker, Aceves pitches a scoreless sixth but allows a double to Jack Wilson and a single to Ichiro! in the process. The next inning starts with a Junior single and a Franklin Gutierrez double, but Jack Hannahan grounds out to second for the first out. Kenji Johjima is hit by a pitch to load the bases, but Aceves strikes out Ryan Langerhans for the second out (you probably remember this, he blew three straight fastballs right by him for three swinging strikes). Ace then hits Jack Wilson to force in a run, and is taken out in favor of Chad Gaudin. Gaudin allows all three inherited runners to score and then some before recording the final out of the inning.
If Gaudin got the third out right away, Aceves’ line would have been a much prettier 1.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. Not great obviously, but not nearly the eyesore.
Then there was last night. He escaped that bases loaded, one out, jam with a 1-2-3 double play, then got Ryan Sweeney and Landon Powell to ground out for two quick outs in the sixth. Jack Cust hit that towering homer that just kept carrying and carrying out to center, but Aceves got Tommy Everidge to line out to second to end the inning. With most of the fan base clamoring for Phil Hughes in the seventh, Ace actually struck out the first two batters of the frame. Rajai Davis singled and stole second, then came home on Mark Ellis single back up the middle. Kurt Suzuki singled weakly to the left side and Phil Coke came in to escape the jam. It wasn’t a great performance, but hardly a disaster.
So by my count, there’s only three real stinkers in there. Two of them came in back-to-back outings which were sandwiched around the announcement that Aceves had a sore/fatigued shoulder, and a third that wouldn’t have been so bad had a whole bunch of inherited runners been stranded. Perhaps the problem is that Aceves was so great in the first half of the year that we’ve been spoiled and come to expect that every outing. As RLYW has noted, Aceves has been outperforming his FIP all year, so this just might be a good ol’ statistical correction.
The beautiful thing about having a seven game lead and a 99.26073% chance to make the playoffs is that the team can err on the side of caution. If Aceves’ shoulder is in fact barking, they can take it easy and rest him, perhaps even sticking him on the disabled list so they can get a warm body to replace him. It’s gotten kind of tiresome to see people speculate that so-and-so must be hurt because he’s not pitching well; guys can just struggle for no apparent reason, you know. It’s called a slump. As the number three option out of the ‘pen, Aceves is going to play a big role in October, and there’s no reason for the Yanks to screw around with such a big lead in August.
Bullpen picks up Mitre, offense powers Yanks to sweep
If I told you that Sergio Mitre would only last 4.1 innings last night, you’d surely lower your head into your palm. Yet it wasn’t that bad. Girardi exercised caution and relieved Mitre before he could cause any serious trouble. Al Aceves fended off the Blue Jays for an inning and two thirds, and that bought the Yankees offense enough time to rally ahead and take their second straight game from the Jays, 8-4.
Mitre didn’t look bad to start the game, striking out Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. The Jays then went single happy, hitting ground balls and bloops on their way to four straight hits which resulted in two runs. The box score looked bad, but at least Mitre was keeping the ball on the ground. And striking out guys. Five innings, two runs was still a possibility.
Over the next few innings, it appeared he might just hold up. Mitre was by no means perfect over the next three innings, but he made some good pitches and got a strikeout with a runner on and two outs in the second, and a ground out with two on and two outs in the fourth. Jose Molina assisted in the third, picking off Vernon Wells on a snap throw to fist.
After getting yet another grounder to open the fifth, Mitre left one up to Adam Lind, and Lind did as Lind does, parking it in the right field seats. After a Lyle Overbay single, Girardi had seen enough. His team was down just one and he didn’t want to see any more distance in the score, so he called on Ol’ Reliable, Al Aceves, to finish off the fifth and then some. Al fulfilled his duty, retiring the first five batters he faced.
Meanwhile, the Yankees were thinking rally. Nick Swisher sparked them in the seventh with a leadoff solo homer, tying the game. This led to a multi-run inning, which is strange, because you’d think that a leadoff walk would lead to more multi-run innings. But no, Swisher’s one run started a series of events which would eventually end with Mark Teixeira singling home the Yankees fourth run of the inning. Sandwiched in there was Jose Molina walking and Rod Barajas botching a play at the plate, so it was quite an eventful series of at bats. Even better, it left the Yankees with a lead.
I was a bit surprised to see Aceves back out to start the seventh after a long top of the inning. It made it easy to excuse the lead off home run to Marco Scutaro. Thankfully, the Blue Jays would not get a multi-run inning of their own. Ace got Aaron Hill to hit one right at Jeter, and then Phil Coke took care of the lefties Adam Lind and Lyle Overbay to cap the frame. Hughes and, after a few insurance runs, Robetson cleaned up.
It was encouraging to see the Yanks come back, despite a short start from Mitre. It’s never a welcome sight to see a starter fail to finish five innings, but the Yankees bullpen was good enough to pick up the slack and limit the Jays. I keep thinking back to years past in games like this. Would the offense have come back last year? Would the bullpen have held together for so long in 2007? I’m not so sure. It’s reassuring to know that both can happen in 2009.
The Yanks have now won three straight, and with two straight Red Sox losses they head into the weekend series two and a half games up in the AL East. The Yankees have no excuses this time. They’ve got to take three out of four, though there’s always the thought of a sweep right in the front of my mind. They’ll kick it off with Joba vs. Smoltz tomorrow night. I couldn’t be more excited.
The Alfredo Aceves Appreciation Thread
Now that he’s been named Thursday’s starter, it’s time for us to show some love to do-it-all man Alfredo Aceves. He’s been called The New Ramiro Mendoza, and his call up on May 4th coincides with the start of the bullpen’s turn around. On the date of Aceves’ call up, the bullpen’s ERA was hovering around 6.50 with a WHIP around 1.50. Since then, those totals have dropped to 4.02 and 1.24, respectively, no doubt thanks in part to Aceves’ stellar relief work.
Aceves has allowed just 30 hits and issued 8 free passes in 40 innings of work. He’s holding opposing hitters to a .208-.256-.354 batting line, which is slightly worse than Jeff Francoeur’s output this season. He’s entered games in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th innings. He came in to face a lone righty batter in one outing before picking up a four inning save four days later. His ERA at home is lower than his ERA on the road despite the New Stadium’s … ahem … fondness for hitters. Only 16 of the 156 batters he’s faced have worked the count full. He’s performed his best with that horrific game caller Jorge Posada behind the plate. Simply put, Aceves has been everything the Yanks could have ever asked for, and then some.
So spill your guts here, folks. Tell us how much you love The Mexican Gangster.
Photo Credit: Ray Stubblebine, Reuters
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