Via Bill Madden, Jorge Posada told Brian Cashman that he not only wanted out of Saturday night’s lineup after being demoted to ninth in the lineup, he also wanted out of the Yankees as well. “It was just something said in the heat of anger and frustration,” said one of Madden’s sources. “He didn’t want out, and doesn’t want out. He was just frustrated and said a lot of things.” Posada apologized and this is all in the past now, but sheesh, Jorge was pissed, eh?
Posada apologizes for Saturday
Update (8:25pm): The Yankees announced that they’ve accepted Posada’s apology and consider the matter closed. Jorge will not be disciplined. Good to hear, let’s all move on to the important stuff.
Original Post (6:00pm): Jorge Posada apologized to Joe Girardi today, telling reporters that he just “had a bad day.” Posada indicated that he will also speak and apologize to Brian Cashman at some point as well. I’m sure they’ll be accepted. “I think I’ve learned from this,” said Jorge. “It’s not about Jorge Posada, it’s about the team. I let some people down. Everything happens for a reason. You live with your mistakes, you move on.” He also spoke to some teammates before apologizing today, namely Derek Jeter.
Posada, by the way, is not in the lineup tonight. That probably has to do more with Jon Lester (Posada is 4-for-21 off him and hitless in 24 at-bats vs. LHP this year) than all this nonsense though. We might not see him against David Price tomorrow either.
Fans Divided
This morning, I was talking with the wonderful and amazing Joe Pawlikowski (also known as my boss), and he brought up a very valid point to me: there are only really two fan-related sides to the Jorge Posada story, and they are not at all exclusive to Jorge Posada.
The Yankees (and Yankees fans) have been blessed by players who are consistently great all the time, and have the money to retain these players for, theoretically, as long as they want. The upside is that the team builds a core of players that they can reliably depend on to provide a potent offence. When you’ve got guys who come in every year and tear the snot out of the ball, it’s something you never have to worry about. It’s stress off everyone in the organization’s shoulders. The additional great thing is that you have fans that grow up with these players, building both the team and the player as a brand. As a result, you have a great player who contributes to the team, an easy answer to the question of who plays every year, and a person who the fans adore.
But.
Time is not kind to athletes. Players who perform at extraordinary levels for extended periods of time are expected to, day in and day out, perform at that level. They are expected to be immune to absolutely everything: situations off the field (“Everything sucks in my life right now.”) or the very fact that everyone – yes, even Albert Pujols – slumps. There’s nothing the players or the coaches or anyone can do about that.
A struggling franchise player puts teams into two individual camps, and depending on how long and how public and how dramatic that struggle gets, those camps get more and more divided. Now, correct me if I’m wrong on these two camps:
Camp 1: A franchise player should get special treatment due to how well they’ve performed thus far. This includes (but is not limited to), an extended period of time to work themselves out, a fat contract, and the ability to, effectively, do what they want (within reason).
Camp 2: All players should be treated the same when they struggle, regardless of who they are.
Like I said, these two camps aren’t exclusive to Posada. These are the same groups that have been rallying for (or against) a drop in the lineup to the great and mighty Derek Jeter. These are the same groups that wanted one or five years on Derek’s new contract, five or twenty million dollars. I wonder if these people who fall into either camp took similar stances in regards to Bernie, who ended his career batting 6th, not cleanup. Granted, 6th isn’t the nine-hole, but it was probably still a demotion to him.
I don’t think going either way makes you more or less of a fan (and what a ‘good fan’ and a ‘bad fan’ is might be a post for another day), but I think it’s interesting to see where people fall. People in camp one look over at people in camp two and say that they can’t stick by the guys who’ve done great and, statistically speaking, are better than their numbers and are ticketed for improvement. People in camp two say that those in camp one are too emotionally attached to these players to do what they think the team needs to do regarding them to improve the team.
Personally, I’m torn up on the matter. On one hand, no one can deny how poorly Posada is doing, even though I think it’s a terrible slump and he’ll figure himself out soon, and moving someone batting an absolute pitiful .165/.272/.349 to the ninth spot isn’t an unreasonable thing to do. MLB 9-hole hitters average .209/.262/.295 (including pitchers!) and have wracked up a thousand strikeouts already (AL only: .246/.310/.360). On the other hand, Jorge Posada is a quintessential New York Yankee, and it doesn’t take a giant leap of faith to see how being moved to ninth could be perceived as an insult, even given the circular lineup that the Yankees use day-in and day-out.
Which side do you fall on? For Jeter? For Posada? And if you fall on different sides for two different players, why?
(Side note: This absolutely terrible team that includes both Posada and Jeter and can’t hit with RISP still leads the AL in runs/game, OBP, and SLG, and is second in walks and OPS+.)
Sherman: Yankees have no intention of keeping Posada after 2011
Via Joel Sherman, the Yankees have no intention of keeping Jorge Posada beyond this season, and the former backstop knew this from the outset of Spring Training. The problem is that Posada doesn’t want to retire nor does he want to play for another team. Aside from his poor performance this year, I’m certain this is another thing on Jorge’s mind, and I can’t imagine it feels good. It’s always ugly at the end of a legacy player’s career, and the past 24 hours are really just the beginning (of the end) for Posada.
Cashman: Posada removed himself from lineup
Update (11:27pm): Now that Posada’s mini-presser has been aired on YES, I can say the “That’s the way he worked now” comment wasn’t nearly as vicious as it came across on Twitter. Jorge did talk in circles quite a bit though. Bottom line, everyone is in the wrong here. Well, everyone except Girardi, but Posada and Cashman definitely could have handled this better. No doubt about it.
Update (11:01pm): Posada said after the game that he told Girardi that he needed time to clear his head and that his back stiffened up after taking grounders at first, but Girardi said he was never made aware of any physical problem. As for as Cashman saying it wasn’t an injury issue during the in-game interview, Jorge said “[Cashman] made a mis-statement … That’s the way he works now.” Wow, shots fired.
Update (9:14pm): Via Ken Rosenthal, Posada actually sat out with back stiffness tonight. That sounds like a big ol’ cover story, but they can’t turn this into a big mess that divides the clubhouse or something crazy like that.
Original Post (8:00pm): Brian Cashman just told Ken Rosenthal during tonight’s broadcast that Jorge Posada removed himself from the lineup tonight and that it’s “not an injury situation.” Posada is expected to speak to the media after the game, but when asked what tonight meant for Posada’s future for with the team, he said he “didn’t want to speak for Jorge.”
For what it’s worth, Joel Sherman hears that Posada is not retiring. Jack Curry hears that Jorge was “insulted” by people penciled into the ninth spot of the lineup, and that he threw a “hissy fit.” Stay tuned…
The Jorge Posada Problem
It’s no secret that Jorge Posada has been struggling this season, you didn’t need me or last night’s 0-for-3 to tell you that. He’s hitting just .147/.250/.343 at a time when the average designated hitter is hitting .256/.337/.392, so the Yankees have been playing with a significant disadvantage this season. Whether it’s just old age, or Posada finding life as a designated hitter difficult after all those years behind the plate, or something else entirely is really none of my concern, all I know is that Jorge’s struggling and it’s a drain on the offense. The season is still young, but we’re starting to reach the point where we can’t just blindly blame things on small sample sizes and expect him to snap out of it. Posada’s been terrible for almost 120 plate appearances now, so the Yankees have to starting thinking about alternatives and soon.
Fortunately, they have a very obvious alternative stashed away in Triple-A by the name of Jesus Montero. The organization’s top prospect hasn’t hit for much power this year (just two extra base hits in his last 20 games, .070 ISO), but we all know it’s in there. If he wasn’t hitting for average (.333) or getting on base (.355 OBP), then it would be a concern. Montero’s bat is big league ready, there’s very little doubt about that, the only hold up is that there wasn’t an obvious spot for him on the roster or in the lineup. Now there is.
So if the Yankees do call up Montero to take over as DH, how would the lineup and bench work? Just thinking out loud here, but Posada could essentially take over the Eric Chavez role. No, he wouldn’t be able to play third base obviously, but he could certainly back up first base, pinch-hit, and DH on occasion. Eduardo Nunez would have to be the primary backup third baseman, and it’s worth pointing out that both Russell Martin and Frankie Cervelli have some experience at the position at the Major League level (71.1 and three defensive innings, respectively). It’s not ideal, but they’re always there in case of an emergency. Montero takes over as the primary DH and Ramiro Pena hits the bricks. Done and done.
The service time stuff isn’t much of an issue with Montero at all. We’re already well past the point of delaying his free agency by a year, and the Yankees could always afford whatever extra it would cost if he qualified as a Super Two player. CAA Baseball’s preliminary internal studies peg next year’s Super Two cutoff at two years and 146 days, which is right in line with what it had been in recent years. That’s basically 40 days into the 180-something day long season, so we’re right there (just for reference). Plus there’s also a non-zero chance that Super Twos will go away in the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement, so it might be a non-issue all together. Point being, there’s little incentive to be gained by keeping Montero down in the minors right now, at least not financial incentive.
I don’t think it’s time to pull the plug on Posada just yet, but we’re fast approaching it. We’ve got to see some considerable improvement out of him during this 16 games in 16 days stretch (now 15 in 15), which brings us to May 26th. I’ve been saying that June 1st was my target date for Jorge’s turn around, but May 26th is close enough. He has to be hitting by then because we’re going to be a third of the way into the season. They can’t wait forever. The first third is for evaluating, the second third is for making changes, and the final third is for riding them out. The simplest change the Yankees can make right now is at DH, and right now Posada is giving them every reason in the world to make that change.
Jorge’s rough start
Believe it or not, the Yankees have already played over 14% of their 2011 schedule. It feels like the season just started. Despite that feeling, we’re quickly getting to the point where data and statistics can start to prove enlightening. Caution is required, though, as we’re still dealing with small sample sizes. We do know that all small sample sizes are not created equally. Some samples become statistically relevant very quickly. Others, like BABIP or UZR, take a very long time to stabilize. The distinction is important, because this is the time of the year at which you’ll be tempted to believe that an unreliably small sample size is indicative of future performance. In a lot of cases, it likely won’t be.
Part of the reason that this temptation is so strong is because it confirms what our eyes have seen. This is particularly the case when a player looks terrible, either at the plate or in the field: “Carl Crawford may bounce back, but have you seen how badly he’s flailing at offspeed stuff in the dirt? Will he ever be able to hit a curve from a lefty?” This is where it gets tricky. Part of what Crawford may be dealing with is a temporary deterioration of skill, a slump. He looks bad, so we aren’t surprised to see him get bad results. There’s a flip side, though. Crawford is getting bad results, which makes us more likely to focus on how badly he looks. It’s a self-reinforcing mechanism, and the only way it stops is for Crawford to stop looking bad, or get better results, or both.
This is a roundabout way of addressing Jorge Posada and his horrific start. Heading into the weekend Posada was batting .130/.231/.391 with only nine hits and eight walks in 78 plate appearances. The only reason Posada’s slugging percentage is so high is because six of his nine hits have been home runs. It’s really been an all or nothing sort of year for Jorge. Some have argued that his slow start is indicative of a larger trend and predictive of future performance. Some have even called for Posada to get the Old Yeller treatment, so to speak. These calls may be premature.
So far, Posada’s approach at the plate isn’t much different than it’s always been. He’s swinging at the same amount of pitches he always has, both in and out of the zone (the latter is slightly elevated). His contact rates are slightly lower than they’ve been in the past but not significantly so, and he hasn’t accrued enough plate appearances for his contact rates to be considered statistically significant anyway. What seems to be happening is simply that Posada is getting some bad luck on balls in play. Posada’s career BABIP of .316. It currently stands at .070. For Posada or for any major leaguer, a BABIP of .070 is simply unsustainable. No matter how badly he’s looked at the plate, particularly against off speed pitches, there is simply no reason to expect him to maintain a BABIP that low.
He has looked bad against off speed pitches. As Mike noted on Thursday, Posada has always excelled primarily against fastballs. But this year he hasn’t been as bad against off speed pitches as our eyes may have told us. From 2009 to 2010, Posada saw 457 sliders and whiffed on 17.1% of them. This year he’s seen 33 sliders and whiffed on only 6.1% of them. In 2009-2010, Posada saw 597 changeups and whiffed on 10.2% of them. In 2011 he’s seen 44 changeups and whiffed on 11.4% of them. From 2009-2010 Posada saw 464 curveballs and whiffed on 14% of them. This year he’s seen 37 curveballs and whiffed on 16.2%. The “biggest” increase is the curveball. Posada has whiffed on 2.2% more curveballs in 2011 than he has in the past two years. This increase in whiff rate amounts to exactly one more curveball whiffed this year than he would have in the past two years. One.
Others might point to his batted ball data as an indication of his decline. His line drive percentage is down to 12.2%, off from a career average of 20%. His ground ball percentage is right in line with past norms; the line drives have essentially turned into fly balls this year. One way to frame this would be to say that Posada’s line drive percentage is currently half of his career average. This sounds rather ominous. Another way would be to look at the actual granular data. Posada has 21 groundballs, 22 fly balls and 6 line drives in 2011. If his line drives were in line with career numbers (20.1%) he would have hit a grand total of 10 line drives this year, rather than 6. A difference of 4 line drives hardly seems worth getting worked up over. If in July Posada is still hitting line drives at a 10% clip then perhaps it is time to worry. At this point it’s simply too small of a sample, and too small a difference, to merit concern.
Posada very well could be undergoing a serious age-related decline. He’s 39 and he’ll turn 40 in August. He’s spent 15 years as a catcher in the majors and has a lot of wear and tear on his frame. But right now Jorge Posada’s biggest problem seems to be that he’s gotten shortchanged in the luck department for the first month of the year. Soon the organization will deem Jesus Montero ready for the show and Montero begin to push Posada towards the proverbial exit. But until then there doesn’t seem to be any good reason why Posada, a potential Hall of Fame catcher and face of the Yankees for the past decade, shouldn’t be given plenty of time at the plate to see if his luck will turn around.
Note: Stats don’t include yesterday’s game.
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