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Yankeemetrics: Bomber Brooms, Seattle Sweep (June 19-21)

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(Getty)

Domingo+Dingers=Win
After a quick trip to the nation’s capital, the Yankees were back at the friendly confines on Tuesday night and opened their series with an easy 7-2 win over the Mariners.

Domingo German was absolutely brilliant in his eighth career start. After giving up a run (unearned) in the first inning, he retired 19(!) straight batters before Nelson Cruz tagged him with a solo homer in the seventh. He pitched a career-high seven innings, surrendering just two hits while striking out nine and walking none.

It was the second time this season he’s allowed no more than two hits and gotten at least nine strikeouts, earning our #funfact of the series: Since his first start on May 6, the only other MLB pitcher to have two games with those stats (2 or fewer hits and 9 or more strikeouts) is Chris Sale.

German’s dominance has peaked in the last two weeks. Over his last three starts, 28 of the 51 outs (55%) he’s recorded have come via strikeout. And for the season, he’s shown elite swing-and-miss stuff, with a 15.7 percent swinging strike rate that is the second-highest among all pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched.

Highest Whiff Rate This Season (Min. 40 IP)
Whiffs/Pitches %
Max Scherzer 16.6
Domingo German 15.8
Jacob deGrom 15.7
Shohei Ohtani 15.7
Noah Syndergaard 15.0
Chris Sale 15.0

Giancarlo Stanton ignited the Yankees home run derby with a game-tying solo shot in the bottom of the first inning off Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales. He entered the game with a .435 ISO (Isolated Power) against lefty pitchers, the highest mark in the AL (min. 50 PA).

Miguel Andujar made sure the fans at Yankee Stadium would go home happy, crushing a career-long 427-foot home run in the fifth inning that put the team ahead 3-1. Aaron Hicks added a few insurance runs with his own two-run bomb later in the fifth, going deep in back-to-back-to-back games for the first time in his career.

Finally, Gleyber Torres capped off the dinger party with monster blast in the eighth inning, his 14th of the season. It wouldn’t be a Gleyber Day without the obligatory Mickey Mantle/Joe DiMaggio comparison:

The newest True Yankee
The Comeback Kids were back in the Bronx on Wednesday as the Yankees staged yet another improbable rally to beat the Mariners, 7-5, after trailing 5-0 in the fifth inning. It was their biggest comeback win of the season; before Wednesday, they were 0-6 when trailing by at least five runs in a game. It’s been a couple weeks since their last walk-off victory, so let’s recap and update some of the statistical goodness that’s defined this never-say-die 2018 Yankees season:

  • Sixth walk-off win of the season, one more than they had all of last year and tied for the most in the AL. The last time the Yankees had six walk-off wins this early into the schedule (71st game) was 2009.
  • Third walk-off homer of season, tied for the most in the AL and the same number they had all of last year. The last time they had three walk-off dingers this early into the season was 2009.
  • 23rd comeback win of season, the most in the majors. By the way, the 2009 team also had 23 comeback wins in their first 71 games.

Hmmm … sensing a trend there.

(Getty)

Gary Sanchez was the first hero of the night, tying the game in the eighth with a massive 439-foot two-run homer. It was his team-best third home run in the eighth inning or later that either tied the game or gave the team a lead; he had never hit one of those before 2018. The Yankees are now 11-0 in games that Sanchez goes deep this year.

Giancarlo Stanton then capped the rally with a two-out, two-strike mammoth shot over the wall in left-center. It was his fourth career walk-off longball and first as a Yankee. The poor baseball went a projected 453 feet, the longest walk-off home run recorded by Statcast (since 2015).

(USA Today)

Based on his season-to-date numbers this season, Stanton might have been the last guy you’d think would have been drenched in Gatorade at home plate after his at-bat. His splits entering Wednesday as he faced righty Ryan Cook:

BA Slug Pct AB/HR
Home .213 .411 17.6
High Leverge .208 .250 0.0
Late & Close .132 .184 0.0
vs RHP .217 .379 24.8

And to celebrate his first True Yankee Moment, let’s give Stanton our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: Over the last 30 years (when we have reliable pitch data), he is just the second Yankee to hit a two-out walk-off homer in an 0-2 count. The other was Jason Giambi on June 5, 2008 against the Blue Jays off reliever B.J. Ryan in the bottom of the ninth.

Nifty Fifty
Because this team simply refuses to lose … the Yankees completed the sweep of the Mariners on Thursday afternoon, holding on for a 4-3 win.

They are now 19-18 when scoring four runs or fewer this season; every other team is at least three games under .500 in that situation. Looking ahead, the last MLB team to finish with a winning record in games when scoring no more than four runs was the 1979 Astros (57-56), and the last AL team to do it was the 1954 Cleveland Indians (41-39).

(Newsday)

The Bronx Bombers did all their scoring in the first inning, as Aaron Judge and Miguel Andujar both smashed two-run homers to give the Yankees an early 4-0 advantage.

Andujar’s blast was his 10th of the season, making the Yankees the only team in MLB with seven double-digit homer players in 2018 (Red Sox have six). The only other time in the last 15 seasons that the Yankees had seven players hit at least 10 dingers before July 1 was 2009.

The third baseman joined Gleyber Torres in the 10-homer club, producing yet another pinstriped record: they are the first set of Yankee rookie infielders to hit at least 10 homers in the same season. The last pair of Yankee rookie teammates at any position to do it were Gil McDougald and Mickey Mantle in 1951.

Finally this was also their 50th win in 2018, an important milestone considering this stat: It’s the eighth time that the Yankees have reached the 50-win mark in their first 72 games, and here’s how the previous seven seasons ended:

6/19 to 6/21 Series Preview: Seattle Mariners

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Dee Gordon and Jean Segura. (Lindsey Wasson/Getty)

Worry not, dear reader, for the dreaded trip to Seattle (and Oakland) isn’t until September. That doesn’t necessarily make this match-up any better, though.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Mariners for a three-game Players Weekend set last August, picking up two wins and outscoring the visiting club by 11 runs. Some other notes from the series:

  • The first game of the series was one of the most frustrating in recent memory. The Yankees left thirteen runners on-base in total, and left the bases loaded three times. Aroldis Chapman, who lost his job as closer a week earlier, surrendered a go-ahead (and game-winning) pinch-hit home run in the 11th. Ugh.
  • Greg Bird returned to the lineup after missing nearly four months of action in the second game, and he looked pretty good. He went 1-for-2 with two walks and a run scored, and played all nine innings at first.
  • That second game also included somebody named ‘Jacoby Ellsbury’ going 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBI. That guy went 4-for-10 in the series as a whole, with a double, that home run, a walk, and 6 RBI.
  • Seattle made five errors in one inning in the third game, which made things pretty easy for the Yankees offense. Masahiro Tanaka twirled a gem, as well, tossing 7 innings of 1 run ball, and striking out 10.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

The Mariners have half of a bullpen on the DL, with Dan Altavilla, David Phelps, Erasmo Ramirez, and Nick Vincent out with a variety of ailments. Phelps had Tommy John Surgery in March, so he won’t be back any time soon, and Altavilla has a nebulously named “mass sprain” in his elbow, so his return is up in the air, as well. The other two could be back this month, but probably not in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

Seattle is 46-26 with a +22 run differential, good for second-place in both the AL West and the AL Wild Card race. They’ve overachieved quite a bit relative to their Pythagorean expectations, which place them as a 38-34 team. That’s not shocking, considering that they have the 4th best winning percentage in baseball, and the 12th best run differential.

The Mariners are basically a middle of the pack team, sitting 12th in runs allowed, 13th in runs scored, and 22nd in defensive runs saved. Their biggest strength as of now is the bullpen, which is among the five-best in the game by pretty much every measure. That isn’t to say that their offense or starting pitching is bad; rather, that it’s good enough to be put over the top by a light’s out bullpen. And that’s been the key to their success so far.

All that being said, their biggest story so far may well be Robinson Cano’s 80-game suspension for violating the league’s joint drug agreement. He’s not eligible to return until August 14 and, when he does, he might not get his full-time job back.

The Lineup We Might See

Third-year manager Scott Servais has had a fairly steady hand with his lineup card, as the only real shake-up was the result of Cano’s suspension. We’ll probably see something like this:

  1. Dee Gordon, 2B – .290/.311/.361, 1 HR, 19 SB
  2. Jean Segura, SS – .340/.363/.490, 6 HR, 14 SB
  3. Mitch Haniger, RF – .269/.357/.512, 16 HR, 3 SB
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH – .249/.339/.521, 17 HR, 1 SB
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B – .224/.272/.413, 12 HR, 1 SB
  6. Ryon Healy, 1B – .257/.288/.485, 13 HR, 0 SB
  7. Ben Gamel, LF – .297/.371/.406, 1 HR, 5 SB
  8. Mike Zunino, C – .207/.266/.445, 11 HR, 0 SB
  9. Guillermo Heredia, CF – .241/.343/.348, 2 HR, 1 SB

Denard Span (.259/.368/.415, 6 HR, 6 SB) could see some time in left, as well.

James Paxton. (Bob Levey/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Marco Gonzales

Despite being a top-50 prospect a few years ago, Gonzales never received much of an opportunity with his original organization, the Cardinals. He was shipped to Seattle for prospect Tyler O’Neill last July, and the Mariners stuck him in the rotation. Things were a bit rocky last season, but Gonzales has been very good in 2018, pitching to a 3.42 ERA (117 ERA+) and 3.20 FIP in 79.0 IP. His 21.1% strikeout rate is right around league-average, and his 46.8% groundball rate and 5.8% walk rate are comfortably better than average.

Gonzales is a true five-pitch guy, working with a low-90s four-seamer, low-90s sinker, high-80s cutter, mid-80s change, and high-70s curve. Much of his success this year has been attributed to that cutter, which he only starting throwing this past off-season.

Last outing (vs. LAA on 6/13) – 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 7 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Jonathan Loaisiga vs. RHP Felix Hernandez

The once-dominant King Felix is a shell of his former self at 32, sporting a 98 ERA+ since Opening Day 2015. This has been his worst season to-date, though, as he has a 5.44 ERA (73 ERA+) and 4.67 FIP in 84.1 IP, having allowed four or more runs in 7 of his 15 starts. He does have a 4.00 ERA in June, though, with two strong outings sandwiched around a 3-inning, 6-run effort on June 9, so the flashes are still there … to some degree.

Hernandez’s once elite velocity is gone nowadays, as his four-seamer averages 90.3 MPH this year, a full MPH lower than 2017. He still throws the same arsenal, albeit with a reduced velocity – that four-seamer, a high-80s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and a high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 6/14) – 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Thursday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP James Paxton

Paxton struck out 16 A’s on May 2 and followed that up by no-hitting the Blue Jays his next time out, in the midst of an utterly dominant stretch that saw him pitch to a 1.75 ERA in 56.2 IP. He’s been mortal around those eight games, though, and that’s largely been the story of his career. And he’s never faced the Yankees.

Paxton is primarily a three-pitch guy, focusing on his mid-90s four-seamer, high-80s cutter, and big-breaking, low-80s curve. He’ll also throw a mid-90s sinker and a mid-80s change-up, but those are oftentimes little more than show-me pitches.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 6/15) – 2.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 1 BB 4 K

The Bullpen

Edwin Diaz is the closer, and his numbers are kind of absurd. He has more than three times as many strikeouts (62) as hits allowed (20), and he’s striking out 42.5% of all batters. He already has 27 saves, which is five more than the second-place Craig Kimbrel, and his 2.56 WPA is ninth among all pitchers.

James Pazos (1.48 ERA in 24.1 IP) and Chasen Bradford (3.21 ERA in 28.0 IP) have done the heavy lifting behind Diaz, and they’ve been very good so far. The rest of the bullpen has been something of a revolving door due to the aforementioned injuries, but the newly acquired Alex Colome (3.68 ERA in 7.1 IP for the Mariners) has high-leverage experience.

Yankees Connection

A few have been mentioned so far – Cano, Ben Gamel (parts of seven years), and James Pazos (six years) were all brought-up through the Yankees organization. You’ll also remember Nick Rumbelow, who rode the shuttle for the Yankees in 2015 and was dealt to Seattle last November; you may not remember Wade LeBlanc, who pitched one awful inning for the good guys back in 2014 and was a non-roster invite to Spring Training this year. He has a 2.63 ERA (152 ERA+) in fourteen games this year, because of course he does.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Paxton’s curve is a sight to behold, and Diaz is just filthy all-around; hopefully the Yankees won’t have to see him at all this week. And Gordon and Segura have a vibe that’s not all that different from Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Robinson Cano suspended 80 games for banned substance

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(Ezra Shaw/Getty)

Well this is a bummer. Former Yankee Robinson Cano has been suspended 80 games after testing positive for a banned substance, MLB announced. He tested positive for Furosemide, a drug used to treat a medical issue, though it is on the banned substances list because it can be used as a masking agent. By rule, Cano is now ineligible for the postseason should the Mariners qualify (lol).

According to T.J. Quinn, MLB does not automatically suspend for diuretics, so the suspension means MLB was able to prove Cano used the substance to mask another drug. He tested positive before the season and dropped the appeal after going on the disabled list. Here is Cano’s statement:

Cano is currently on the disabled list — he suffered a broken hand on a hit-by-pitch over the weekend — and MLB’s release indicates he will be able to serve the suspension while injured. Edinson Volquez served his PED suspension while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so there is precedent.

By almost any measure, Cano is one of the most productive second basemen in baseball history — a strong case can be made he is the best second basemen in Yankees history — and he’s within shouting distance of 3,000 hits (2,410 at the moment). The suspension will likely ding his legacy and could keep him out of the Hall of Fame, though that’s still a ways away.

Robbie isn’t a Yankee and hasn’t been for a few years now, but he came up through the farm system and spent nine years in pinstripes, and was the best player on the team for many of those years. He’s one of my all-time favorite players and I know I’m not alone. As a baseball fan, the suspension sucks.

Mariners return Rule 5 Draft pick Mike Ford to Yankees

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Another Rule 5 Draft player is coming back. This afternoon the Yankees announced first baseman Mike Ford has been returned by the Mariners. That means Ford cleared waivers and has been outrighted off the 40-man roster. The Yankees sent him to minor league camp.

This spring the 25-year-old Ford hit .259/.385/.500 with seven doubles, two homers, ten walks, and ten strikeouts in 65 Cactus League plate appearances. He started slow before going 8-for-13 (.615) with three doubles and a homer in his last five games. Dan Vogelbach’s big spring pushed Ford out of the big league picture.

MLB.com actually ranked Ford as the 16th — 16th! — best prospect in the Mariners’ farm system, which tells you what kind of shape their organization is in at the moment. Here’s a piece of their scouting report:

Ford has long stood out for his pure hitting ability, though it was his considerable uptick in power in 2017 … Much of that power is to Ford’s pull side, though he does have feel for using the entire field … Ford’s back-to-back seasons with a .400-plus OBP highlight his advanced approach and plate discipline … (He has) the overall profile as a first-base-only prospect in the American League who offers minimal value on the basepaths raises questions about his impact potential.

Last season Ford hit .270/.404/.471 (144 wRC+) with a career high 20 homers and way more walks (94) than strikeouts (72) in 126 games split between Double-A and Triple-A. We’ll see what happens with Greg Bird’s injury, but with Tyler Austin already optioned down and Miguel Andujar slated to see time at first base this year, Ford may wind up back at Double-A this season.

The Braves returned righty Anyelo Gomez the other day, and the Orioles designated righty Jose Mesa Jr. for assignment when they signed Alex Cobb, meaning he is likely on his way back as well. Lefty Nestor Cortes is the only Yankees’ player still out there with another team as a Rule 5 Draft pick. He figures to crack the O’s Opening Day bullpen.

Yankees lose Mike Ford, five others in 2017 Rule 5 Draft

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Ford. (NY Times)
Ford. (NY Times)

The Winter Meetings came to a close this morning with the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, baseball’s mechanism for helping players stuck in the minors get a chance at the big leagues. As expected, the Yankees lost several players in the Rule 5 Draft. That’s usually what happens when you have a deep farm system. There aren’t enough 40-man roster spots for everyone.

Here are the full Rule 5 Draft results. Here are the players the Yankees lost in the Major League phase:

  • Braves: RHP Anyelo Gomez
  • Mariners: 1B Mike Ford
  • Orioles: LHP Nestor Cortes and RHP Jose Mesa Jr.

I’m surprised Ford was picked, despite his strong minor league numbers. The 25-year-old hit .270/.404/.471 (144 wRC+) with 20 homers and way more walks (94) than strikeouts (72) this season, mostly at Double-A. Ford is only the fourth full-time first baseman picked in the Rule 5 Draft over the last two decades. I guess the Mariners will see whether he and Ryon Healy can be a productive first base platoon going forward.

The three pitchers getting selected was not a surprise. Gomez is the most notable and best prospect of the bunch. The soon-to-be 25-year-old has an upper-90s fastball and a very good changeup, and this past season he broke out with a 1.92 ERA (2.19 FIP) and 31.0% strikeouts in 71 innings at four levels. Cortes has always posted great minor league numbers, though he’s a finesse southpaw who rarely cracks 90 mph with his heater. Joe Table II has okay stuff and started to put it together this year. RHP J.P. Feyereisen and RHP Cale Coshow were among those Rule 5 Draft eligible but not selected.

As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire 2018 season on their new team’s active 25-man roster, or be placed on waivers and offered back to their old team. Most Rule 5 Draft players are offered back, usually before the end of Spring Training. I think Gomez has by far the best chance of sticking among the four players the Yankees lost today. The O’s do have a history of riding it out with Rule 5 Draft players no matter how poorly they perform, however, so perhaps Cortes and/or Mesa will stick.

In the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, the Yankees lost depth C Sharif Othman (Marlins) and converted infielder RHP Yancarlos Baez (Twins). The Yankees selected OF Junior Soto from the Indians as well. The 20-year-old hit .172/.208/.408 (67 wRC+) in 52 Low-A games last season. Soto was a big deal as an international free agent years ago — he signed for $600,000 in 2013 — but things haven’t worked out. The Yankees are taking a flier because why not?

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft works differently than the Major League phase. Players lost in the minor league phase do not have to be offered back and there are no roster rules. They’re just gone. So, after all that, the Yankees lost six players (Ford, Gomez, Cortes, Mesa, Baez, Othman) and added one (Soto). The four Major League phase guys could all end up coming back at some point. Pretty much business as usual at the Rule 5 Draft.

Yankeemetrics: Ending with a win, finally (Aug. 25-27)

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(AP)
(AP)

Extra awful loss
The uniforms might have looked different, but the result was a familiar one for Yankee fans in the Bronx on Friday night – a frustrating and gut-wrenching 11-inning, 2-1 loss. While another late meltdown by the bullpen was the trigger point, the lack of clutch hitting and numerous wasted scoring opportunities gave the Yankees virtually no chance to win the game.

Let’s recap the ugliness:

  • It was their 22nd one-run loss of the season, the most in the American League through Friday, and 10(!) more than they had all of last season.
  • It was also their sixth extra-inning loss, twice as many as they suffered in 2016.
  • And it was the 22nd time the bullpen was charged with a loss, the third-highest total in the AL through Friday, behind the Rays and Rangers.

Aroldis Chapman’s miserable season continued as he coughed up the game-winning homer to Yonder Alonso in the top of the 11th inning. Chapman wore the goat horns, and also gets stung with our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series:

He is the second Yankee ever to give up an extra-inning go-ahead homer at Yankee Stadium against the Mariners. The other one happened on June 14, 1978 when Leon Roberts took Sparky Lyle deep in the top of the 10th, a shot that was rendered meaningless when the Yankees rallied in the bottom of the frame to win the game.

Alonso is also the second left-handed batter this month to homer off the Cuban Missile. That is a mind-blogging fact considering Chapman had surrendered only one home run to a lefty in his career before Rafael Devers took him deep two weeks ago (Luke Scott was the other on June 26, 2011).

To sum it up: he allowed one homer to the first 418 lefty batters he faced in the majors, and since has allowed two homers to the last 12 lefty batters he’s faced in the majors.

With Alonso hammering a 100.1 mph pitch from Chapman into Monument Park, it’s becoming more and more likely that his blazing fastball is no longer a weapon of intimidation in the pitcher-hitter duel. Batters are squaring up on his triple-digit heater more often than ever. Look at these numbers for the 100-plus mph pitches he has thrown in this career.

Year Pitches Slug pct Home runs Whiff rate
2017 253 .324 2 15%
2010-16 2,330 .150 3 22%

The Yankees wasted a gem from CC Sabathia, who was brilliant in his second start since coming off the DL, going seven innings and allowing just one run. Sabathia’s late-career resurgence is reminiscent of another Yankee legend who had a couple strong seasons after reaching the midpoint of his 30s, Mike Mussina. And so it was fitting that the two pitchers had a cool statistical convergence on Friday night:

When Sabathia took the mound at the start of the game, it was his 249th start as a Yankee, breaking a tie with Mussina for sole possession of 11th place on the franchise’s all-time games started list. And when Sabathia struck out Kyle Seager in the sixth inning, it was his 2,814th strikeout, passing Mussina for 19th place on the Major-League all-time strikeout list.

(AP)
(AP)

Sonny skies all day
The crushing losses have been piling up, but the resiliency of this team hasn’t waned. That toughness was on display again this weekend when the Yankees bounced back from Friday’s devastating loss to beat the Mariners 6-3 on Saturday. They’ve now won seven of their last 10 games following a one-run loss, dating back to the last week of June.

Sonny Gray delivered his finest performance as Yankee, striking out nine and allowing just one run in seven stellar innings. He’s pitched at least five innings and allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his first five starts with the Bombers, becoming the first pitcher to begin his Yankee tenure with a streak like that since Tommy John in 1979.

This excellent stretch extends even further back to his final month in Oakland too; Saturday was his 11th consecutive start giving up fewer than three earned runs, the longest streak by any pitcher in the majors this season. In that span – since June 25 – he’s compiled an ERA of 1.95, the lowest by any American League pitcher (min. 30 IP) over the last two months.

Gray dominated with his two breaking pitches, as the Mariners swung at 18 curves/sliders and whiffed on 11 of them, including five for strike three. But perhaps more impressive was how he repeatedly froze batters with his two-seamer. He got a career-best 15 called strikes among the 54 two-seam fastballs he threw, and most of those takes were in the heart of the zone (orange dots below):

sonny-gray2

While Gray shined on the mound, Jacoby Ellsbury had a rare starring role as the offensive spark plug, with an RBI single and a tie-breaking three-run dinger. Ellsbury’s blast was a Yankee Stadium special, just barely clearing the short porch in right field. According to ESPN’s Hit Tracker (and based on calculations if the ball had been hit in ideal weather conditions of 70 degrees and no wind), Yankee Stadium is the only ballpark it would have been a home run.

(New York Post)
(New York Post)

Sloppy Seattle, Magnificent Masa
The Yankees’ inability to close out series had become a recurring nightmare … until the Bad News Mariners showed up to Yankee Stadium. Entering this weekend, the Yankees had dropped their previous 11 rubber games — a streak that reached back to early June — and were 5-14 in rubber games overall this season, easily the worst record and most losses of any team. On Sunday afternoon the Yankees took advantage of a historically sloppy Seattle defense to snap that inexplicable streak, en route to a 10-1 victory.

They raced out to an early 6-1 lead thanks to five Mariners errors in the first inning, the most errors committed by one team in a single inning since the Cubs on July 2, 1977 against the Cardinals. If you’re curious, the modern record (since 1900) for the most errors committed in one inning is seven, by the Cleveland Naps against the Chicago White Sox on September 20, 1905.

Thanks to all those free outs, a cavalcade of hits, and some timely at-bats (6 hits with runners in scoring position), the Yankees were able to win without the benefit a homer — an extremely rare win for this power-happy team. It was just their fourth win this season in a game they didn’t go deep, which is now tied with the Tigers for the fewest such wins in the majors.

Masahiro Tanaka made sure the Yankees offensive outburst wouldn’t be wasted as he shut down the Mariners lineup after a shaky first inning. He struck out 10 in seven innings, allowed one run, and has now quietly posted a 2.92 ERA over his last 11 outings. This was also his 100th career start, and with those 10 strikeouts, Tanaka became the first pitcher in franchise history to reach 600 strikeouts in his first 100 major-league games.

8/25 to 8/27 Series Preview: Seattle Mariners

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Cruz and Seager. (Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
Cruz and Seager. (Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited the Mariners for a four-game set just last month, taking three of four. In doing so they won their first series in over a month, snapping a six week stretch of bad baseball and reminding us just how fun this team could be. Some notes:

  • David Robertson made his Yankees re-debut in the second game of the series, pitching a scoreless seventh inning. He struck out the side on just 13 pitches, with all three strikeouts ending on whiffs. Seeing Robertson back in pinstripes is one of my personal high points of the season.
  • You might remember that second game a bit better as “that time that Aaron Judge broke Statcast.”
  • Didi Gregorius had a heck of a series, going 8-for-15 with a double, two home runs, and two walks. And those two walks represent just under 12% of his total on the season.
  • Brett Gardner hit his 17th home run in the final game of the series, tying his career-high … in his 92nd game of the season. He has added three more since.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more interesting information.

Injury Report

When these teams last met, the Mariners were getting healthy for the first time this year. A month later, and they’re back to being banged-up, with Jarrod Dyson, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Evan Scribner, Drew Smyly, Ryan Weber, and Tony Zych all on the disabled list; none are likely to be back for this series, and Smyly is done for the season, thanks to Tommy John surgery.

It’s also possible that Robinson Cano may not be available this weekend. He left Wednesday’s game after hitting a double (and passing Babe Ruth on the all-time list) with hamstring tightness, and underwent an MRI on Thursday. The Mariners have yet to make any announcement regarding his health or availability as of this writing.

Their Story So Far

The Mariners are currently 65-63, which is good enough to leave them just a game back of the second Wild Card spot. Their -12 run differential suggests that they’ve overachieved a bit, but it’s nevertheless indicative that they’re basically a .500 team. They’ve won six of their last eight, however, and own a 16-12 record since dropping the series to the Yankees.

This is a fairly mediocre team across the board, checking in at 9th in the majors in defensive efficiency, 14th in runs scored, and 18th in runs allowed, and a top-heavy roster. Nelson Cruz is raking as usual (147 wRC+) and James Paxton was in the midst of a breakout season before getting hurt (153 ERA+), but the rest of the team has been largely disappointing. That isn’t to say that solid performers like Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano, and others have been bad – but injuries and under-performance tell a more accurate story of the majority of the team.

If you’re interested in reading more about the Mariners, check out Lookout Landing.

The Lineup We Might See

The recent acquisition of Yonder Alonso has led to the Mariners shaking up the lineup quite a bit over the last two weeks, as have injuries and returns from injuries. Manager Scott Servais seems content to roll with something like this, though (assuming that Cano is available):

  1. Jean Segura, SS
  2. Yonder Alonso, 1B
  3. Robinson Cano, 2B
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B
  6. Mitch Haniger, RF
  7. Ben Gamel, LF
  8. Guillermo Heredia, CF
  9. Mike Zunino, C

Guillermo Heredia is banged-up, as well. If he ends up sitting, we’ll see Haniger or Gamel move to center, and Danny Valencia man a corner OF spot.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Ariel Miranda

Miranda started for the Mariners in their lone victory against the Yankees last month, pitching to the following line: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K. He has been hard in each of his five subsequent starts, allowing 9 home runs and a 6.84 ERA in 26.1 IP. He has a 4.78 ERA (89 ERA+) on the season, and is tied for the major league lead in home runs allowed, with 31.

Last Outing (vs. TBR on 8/19) – 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Yovani Gallardo

It may seem impossible, but Gallardo is only 31-years-old. He made his big league debut as a 21-year-old back in 2007, and this is already his ninth season with 20-plus games started. He hasn’t been effective in a couple of years, though, pitching to a 5.58 ERA (76 ER+) since the beginning of last year, and he no longer strikes batters out (6.6 K/9 this year).

Gallardo is a five-pitch pitcher, featuring a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, an upper-80s slider, a mid-80s change-up, and a low-80s curveball. There was a time when his slider was a devastating pitch, but he’s hittable across the board these days.

Last Outing (vs. TBR on 8/20) – 6.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 6 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Andrew Albers

The Mariners swung a deal for Albers two weeks ago, acquiring him from the Braves for cash considerations. He’s a couple of months older than Gallardo, but he’s only thrown 89.2 IP at the highest level. He was drafted in 2008, but spent 2010 in the independent Canadian-American Association, 2014 in the Korean Baseball Organization, and parts of other seasons out of baseball altogether. It’s an interesting story that reminds of how difficult it is to make it to the show.

Albers is a prototypical crafty lefty, working with a fastball in the upper-80s, a sinker in the mid-to-upper 80s, an upper-70s change-up, an upper-70s slider, and a low-70s curve.

Last Outing (vs. ATL on 8/21) – 5.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

Closer Edwin Diaz has had a disappointing season, with his walk, strikeout, home run, and groundball rates trending heavily in the wrong direction from his dynamite rookie season. He currently has a 3.58 ERA (120 ERA+) in 55.1 IP, and 29 saves in 33 opportunities. Diaz hasn’t been bad by any stretch, but he’s been a serious disappointment.

Nick Vincent and new acquisition (and former Yankee) David Phelps handle the set-up duties, and both have been excellent this season. LOOGY Marc Rzepczynski has been solid in his limited role, too, as has yet another former Yankee, James Pazos. It’s a solid-average bullpen as a whole.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Starlin Castro and Greg Bird hit back-to-back home runs for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last night, and that should be a harbinger of things to come for the Yankees. Starlin Castro is expected to be activated for tonight’s game and, with the strong likelihood of a Gary Sanchez suspension looming, their presence will be much appreciated.