Later tonight CC Sabathia will make his 11th start in what has been, to date, the worst season of his career. Sabathia has a 5.67 ERA (4.20 FIP) in 60.1 innings so far, worse than the 5.28 ERA (4.78 FIP) he had in 46 innings before knee surgery last year, and worse than the 4.78 ERA (4.10 FIP) he had in 211 innings back in 2013, his last full healthy season. CC’s getting old and losing effectiveness. It happens.
The Yankees won’t and pretty much can’t take Sabathia out of the rotation. They owe him a ton of money through next season and possibly through 2017 depending on his vesting option, so they’re going to give him more than ten starts coming off knee surgery to show he has something left. And besides, even if the Yankees were willing to pull Sabathia from the rotation, they have no one to replace him right now. Chris Capuano? Nooope.
So, rather than replace Sabathia, the Yankees have to figure out a way to live with him and improve his performance. That’s much easier said than done — like I said, Sabathia’s getting up there in age (by baseball standards) and has a ton of miles on his arm, so he might be at the point of no return performance-wise — and I think the best way to do that right now is by shortening the leash. Check out Sabathia’s times through the lineup splits in his last two healthy seasons:
| 2015 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st time thru lineup | .274/.322/381 (102 OPS+) | .238/.294/.388 (93 OPS+) |
| 2nd time thru lineup | .316/.337/.443 (113 OPS+) | .278/.329/.475 (119 OPS+) |
| 3rd time thru lineup | .347/.360/.667 (170 OPS) | .299/.354/.488 (122 OPS+) |
| 4th time thru lineup | .167/.250/.167 (14 OPS+) | .281/.333/.391 (104 OPS+) |
First of all, just ignore the numbers the fourth time through the lineup. They come from a very small sample of plate appearances (eight in 2015 and 70 in 2015) and typically the only time a pitcher faces the lineup a fourth time is when he’s pitching well, which is why the stats are better. I don’t even know why I included them.
Secondly, just about every pitcher performs worse each time through the lineup, so Sabathia is hardly unique. The league average OPS+ each time through the order goes from 97 to 106 to 109 to 114 this year, and that’s understandable. It’s not just getting more looks a pitcher and getting familiar with his stuff that day, but the pitcher is also more fatigued each subsequent turn through the lineup.
Sabathia is no different at this point of his career. He’s been about average the first time through the lineup this season, below-average the second time around, and a disaster the third time through. Sabathia’s pitch count splits show a similar pattern — the longer he’s in the game, the less effective he is:
| 2015 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|
| Pitches 1-25 | .217/.277/.333 (74 OPS+) | .233/.291/.433 (103 OPS+) |
| Pitches 26-50 | .350/.364/.383 (113 OPS+) | .269/.314/.394 (102 OPS+) |
| Pitches 51-75 | .299/.319/.507 (124 OPS+) | .311/.348/.503 (134 OPS+) |
| Pitches 76-100 | .380/.400/.760 (215 OPS+) | .259/.335/.466 (114 OPS+) |
| Pitches 101+ | .250/.250/.250 (50 OPS+) | .309/.365/.412 (121 OPS+) |
Again, pitchers around the league are less effective as their pitch count climbs, and Sabathia is no different. Specifically he’s been positively abysmal after pitch No. 75 this year. It was evident in his last start, when he allowed that game-tying two-run home run to Brett Lawrie on pitch No. 77. Sabathia retired just one of four batters faced after his pitch count eclipsed 75 against the Athletics.
Given how much effectiveness Sabathia loses the third time through the lineup and with his pitch count at 75+, a shorter leash could help limit the damage. Sure, it would probably make him a five-inning pitcher instead of a six-inning pitcher, but what if it shaves a run off his ERA? Or even just half a run? Sabathia would also be able to pitch with more intensity earlier in the game, which could improve his performance as well.
The biggest problem with shortening up Sabathia’s leash is the extra stress it puts on the bullpen, specifically a middle relief crew that hasn’t been all that good this year. Capuano being available as a second long man would help with the increased workload, but again, that means more Capuano innings. There are going to be days when the Yankees simply need Sabathia to chew through six or seven innings to rest the bullpen, so auto-pulling him the third time through the lineup isn’t so cut and dried.
The Yankees are used to Sabathia being a workhorse and taking the ball deep into the game every fifth day. Even with his struggles the last three years, he’s averaged 6.1 innings per start, so he always spared the bullpen a bit. Sabathia takes pride in being a workhorse and he should, because it’s a hell of an accomplishment. At this point of his career though, Sabathia doesn’t have the tools to be effective once the lineup turns over a third time.
CC almost certainly won’t ever be an ace again, but if the Yankees pick and choose their spots to get him out of the game earlier than usual, it could help Sabathia be more productive than he has been so far this season.
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