River Avenue Blues

Mike King shut down for three weeks with elbow injury

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(Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)

Didn’t take long for the Yankees to suffer their first spring injury. At his start-of-spring press conference this afternoon, Aaron Boone announced righty pitching prospect Mike King has been shut down for three weeks with a stress reaction in his elbow. He’ll be reevaluated again after the three weeks and they’ll take it from there.

I ranked the 23-year-old King as the ninth best prospect in the system last week. Boone said King felt something in his elbow during a bullpen session last week, so they sent him for tests, which showed the stress reaction. He’ll be behind this spring and it seems to me he’ll have to start the regular season on the disabled list.

The Yankees acquired King from the Marlins in a minor trade last offseason and he blew up last year, throwing 161.1 innings with a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP). Boone mentioned him as a depth option at some point for the coming season, which seems to indicate the elbow injury isn’t that serious, but we’ll see. Elbow issues are not to be taken lightly.

At this point Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, and Luis Cessa are the top depth starter options in whatever order. With King out of the picture for the time being, guys like Drew Hutchison and David Hale become a little more important.

Four ways the 2019 Yankees could be better than the 2018 Yankees

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(Gregory Shamus/Getty)

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Tampa and the long journey that is the 2019 Yankees season is underway. Position players will report Monday and the first Grapefruit League game will be played one week from Saturday. Soon the beautiful monotony of Spring Training baseball will set in and we’ll all eagerly await the regular season. I love this time of year.

The Yankees, despite not signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, had one of the most active offseasons in baseball, one that saw them sign five notable free agents and make one significant trade. Believe me, the Harper and Machado thing irritates me as much as anyone, but you can count on one hand the number of the teams who have done as much as the Yankees this winter.

Have the Yankees done enough to close the gap on the Red Sox? I think so. You’re welcome to feel differently. The Yankees won 100 games last season and that’s an awful lot. It’s not often teams win 100 games in back-to-back seasons (only the 2017-18 Astros and 2004-05 Cardinals have done it within the last 15 years), but, with a talented roster, the Yankees have a chance to do it. Would be cool.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is as good a time as any to take stock of the 2019 Yankees, and discuss why we should expect the 2019 Yankees to be better than the 2018 Yankees. The 2018 Yankees were really good! I see four reasons why the 2019 Yankees could be even better. Here are the four in no particular order.

Healthy Judge and Sanchez

For all intents and purposes, the 2018 Yankees played their final 61 regular season games without Aaron Judge. His wrist was broken by an errant pitch on July 26th, in the 101st game of the year, and he did not return until the team’s 147th game on September 14th. And, when he did return, he stunk. Judge went 9-for-47 (.220) with two doubles and one homer (.341 SLG) in 13 regular season games following the wrist injury.

Gary Sanchez was not good overall last season and apparently he wasn’t healthy either. His shoulder bothered him enough that he needed offseason surgery, and of course he spent roughly two months on the disabled list with groin trouble. It would be easy to blame the injuries for Gary’s down season. I’m sure they played some role in his poor year, particularly the shoulder, but there were some other issues at play as well.

The Yankees can go into this season reasonably expecting Judge and Sanchez to be healthy. Judge’s injury was a fluke and he showed in the postseason the wrist was strong. Sanchez’s shoulder has been repaired and he is already hitting in the cage and catching bullpens, so he’s on track for the regular season. The Yankees will ease him into Grapefruit League games because there’s no reason to push it.

Injuries happen and Judge and Sanchez could miss time again this year. That’s baseball. Neither has a chronic issue that dogs them year after year though — this isn’t Greg Bird with multiple years of ankle problems, you know? — and I think it’s reasonable to assume good health going into 2019. In this case, that means 90 or so more man games from Judge and Sanchez this year than last year.

Full seasons of Happ and Britton

Happ. (Presswire)

At this time last year we were talking about how having full seasons of Sonny Gray, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle would help the 2018 Yankees be better than the 2017 Yankees, so yeah, this game can humble you quick (one outta three ain’t bad, right?). The logic is sound though. They had this good player for half the season last year and now they’ll have him for a full season this year.

I do worry a bit about Happ’s declining fastball spin rate because he relies so heavily on his fastball, but he was also rock steady following the trade last year, and he is essentially replacing the revolving door of fifth starters. Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams combined to allow 116 runs in 30 starts and 136.2 innings last year. They averaged 3.9 runs and 4.6 innings per start for 30 starts. I kid you not.

Happ has made at least 25 starts every year since 2014 and he’s posted a (much) better than average park adjusted ERA every year since 2015. Even at age 36, I feel like Happ is a safe bet to make 25 or so league average starts this year. Given who he’s replacing, that’s a big upgrade. With Gray, we saw some warning signs late in 2017, when he lost the plate and seemed overwhelmed. That wasn’t the case with Happ last year. He came over at the deadline and fit right in.

Britton got better and better as he got away from his Achilles surgery last year and now he’ll have a healthy and normal Spring Training after a healthy and normal offseason. “I went home (after the ALDS), took a day off and started working out the next day and I started throwing a few weeks earlier than I normally do … I just wanted to get rid of some bad habits I (developed after the injury) last year and get ready to go for wherever I was gonna play,” said Britton to Dan Martin the other day.

Full seasons of Gray and Kahnle didn’t help the Yankees last season, but Happ and Britton are more Robertson than Gray and Kahnle given their track records, are they not? Gray had a few moments that made you wonder what was up in 2017. Kahnle never found a set role before his monster postseason. Happ and Britton came over last year and never really missed a beat. They transitioned seamlessly and having them for six months rather than two months is significant.

Paxton replaces Gray

Gray was supposed to be the upside starter. The guy with multiple years of cheap team control who had flashed ace ability in the past. The Yankees hoped to bring it out of him permanently and the opposite happened. He was a disaster last season. James Paxton is cut from a similar cloth in that he’s flashed ace ability over the years and the Yankees are hoping he’ll pitch at the level consistently.

Paxton misses more bats than Gray ever did — Paxton had a 32.3% strikeout rate last year whereas Sonny’s full season high is his 22.6% strikeout rate in 2017 — and he’s been better the last two years than Gray was in his two years prior to the trade. As for the “he can’t handle New York thing,” I don’t know what to tell you other than James Paxton is not Sonny Gray. They’re different people. One has no impact on the other.

What we do know is Paxton is better able to miss bats and limit hard contact than Gray. We know that because he’s done it the last few years:

Paxton in 2018: 32.3 K% and .284 xwOBA
Gray in 2018: 21.1 K% and .316 xwOBA

Paxton from 2016-18: 28.2 K% and .276 xwOBA
Gray from 2016-18: 20.8 K% and .320 xwOBA

I was a big Sonny Gray fan and I was thrilled when the Yankees made the trade in 2017. I feel better about Paxton now than I did Gray then because his strikeout and contact management tendencies are better. We know that, despite all his natural talent, Sonny was not working out for the Yankees. He was terrible. Paxton is not guaranteed to succeed just because he’s not Gray, but I feel really good about what he’s bringing to the table. The potential upgrade is enormous.

Stanton is entering Year Two

Over the years we have seen more than a few players join the Yankees and struggle in their first year with the team, only to rebound in year two. Struggle might be too harsh here, but that first year in pinstripes wasn’t smooth sailing. Here are some recent examples, with an emphasis on big name middle of the order bats (wRC+ and WAR):

Year before NYY Year 1 with NYY Year 2 with NYY
Carlos Beltran 131 and +2.7 97 and -0.5 119 and +1.7
Jason Giambi 193 and +9.2 175 and +6.6 149 and +5.0
Brian McCann 122 and +2.8 94 and +2.3 106 and +2.9
Alex Rodriguez 151 and +9.2 131 and +6.6 174 and +9.1
Gary Sheffield 163 and +7.3 141 and +3.8 137 and +2.4
Mark Teixeira 152 and +6.9 142 and +5.1 128 and +3.4

Giambi, Sheffield, and Teixeira all hit the ground running in year one. Beltran and A-Rod in particular were quite a bit better in their second season with the Yankees though, and McCann as well. Even Hideki Matsui went from a 109 wRC and +0.2 WAR in year one as a Yankee to a 140 wRC+ and +3.0 WAR in year two. That first season in New York can be a slog.

Giancarlo Stanton is now entering year two as a Yankee. All those new team, new teammates, new coaches, new city, new league, new ballpark feelings go away. Maybe they don’t go away, necessarily, but everything is more familiar now. Baseball players are creatures of habit and Stanton went from a largely irrelevant franchise to the center of the baseball universe last year. That had to be a tough adjustment. Now he knows what to expect.

I don’t know about you but I am fully expecting Giancarlo to have a big 2019 season. He wasn’t bad last year by any means — most players would kill to have .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+) with 38 homers and +4.2 WAR be considered a down year — but Giancarlo went into 2018 with a career .268/.360/.554 (144 wRC+) batting line, so we know there’s more in there. Will he ever hit 59 homers again? Probably not. That is a lot of homers. Stanton turned only 29 in November though. He’s right smack in the prime of his career and I expect a big second season in New York.

* * *

Keep in mind that the Yankees are built around a strong young core, and when you have players this young and this talented, the potential for natural improvement is awfully exciting. Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres with a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking them could be even more productive this year. Maybe Luke Voit really can do that across a full season. Luis Severino is still only 24! That second half last season could be a valuable learning experience.

To me, the biggest difference between the 2019 Yankees and the 2018 Yankees is replacing Gray and the fifth starter revolving door with Paxton and Happ. Those stand out as two significant upgrades. Healthy Judge and healthy Sanchez will undoubtedly help as well, ditto a full season of Britton, and Stanton without that first year adjustment period. It’s difficult to improve on a 100-win team. With Paxton and Happ, the Yankees have done it, and there are reasons to believe several incumbent players are poised for better seasons as well.

Thoughts as pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

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(Presswire)

Spring Training has finally arrived. Pitchers and catchers report today with position players due to arrive Monday. Many Yankees have been working out in Tampa for a few days now, but today it’s official. Spring Training has begun. Aaron Boone will hold his annual start-of-spring press conference at 1:30pm ET and I assume YES will carry it. They usually do. It’ll probably stream on the official site as well. Here are some scattered thoughts on the first day of the new season.

1. I know I’ve been bitching and moaning all offseason, so I just want to take a second to say I am very excited for the upcoming season. (Yes, I can still get excited about baseball!) To me, this is the most talented Yankees roster of the last three years. All the top young players have arrived and have at least one big league season under their belt, Giancarlo Stanton is entering year two in pinstripes, and I’m looking forward to seeing how the Yankees help James Paxton get better. I thought some offseason moves were underwhelming (J.A. Happ over Patrick Corbin, DJ LeMahieu over Manny Machado, Zack Britton over David Robertson, etc.), though the Yankees have earned the benefit of the doubt, so let’s see what happens. Yeah, it stinks Didi Gregorius is injured, but what can you do. Injuries are part of baseball. Sir Didi missed a bunch of time in April 2017 (shoulder) and August/September 2018 (heel) and the Yankees survived. They’ll figure it out again. Will the Yankees win another 100 games this year? I dunno, that’s really hard. The 2017-18 Astros and 2004-05 Cardinals are the only teams with back-to-back 100-win seasons in the last 15 years. It’s possible the Yankees will be a better and deeper team than last season and still finish with fewer wins. Then again, so many teams are tanking that contenders will have inflated win totals to some extent. Either way, I’m glad the offseason is over (even though it’s not really over) and I can’t wait to see this roster on the field. I think this is the most talented Yankees roster since their resurgence and they are on the very short list (three or four teams) with a chance to win the World Series.

2. Spring Training performance has no predictive value because the competition is so uneven. A hitter could face a Cy Young candidate in his first at-bat and a Single-A kid in his second, and veterans often work on something specific (changeup, tracking pitches, etc.) rather than chase results. Spring performance is not predictive but I would not necessarily call it meaningless. Some players absolutely must perform in camp. You’re not going to win a bench job or that final bullpen spot while getting blasted each time out, you know? Greg Bird obviously needs a good Spring Training this year. Brian Cashman and the Yankees have said the first base job is Luke Voit’s to lose, as it should be, and Bird has zero chance of stealing it away without a strong camp. I’m not sure he’d get the job even with a good camp, but a bad camp would certainly disqualify him. Even if he doesn’t win the first base job, I imagine a strong spring would boost Bird’s confidence and maybe help push him in the right direction. Tommy Kahnle could use a good spring as well. With him, it’s not so much about the results as it is how he looks. Has the velocity returned? Or he is still putting everything he has into each pitch to get to 94 mph? Kahnle with a free and easy 97 mph heater would be a welcome sight in March. Don’t get too caught up in Spring Training results. They don’t tell us anything useful, by and large. Some players do need to have a good camp though, Bird and Kahnle chief among them.

3. For me, the best part of Spring Training is getting to see prospects and minor leaguers we otherwise won’t get to see during the summer. Chances are Estevan Florial is not getting called up this summer, so watch him in February and March while you can. This spring I think I’m most looking forward to seeing Albert Abreu. Here’s some video from last September:

I ranked Abreu as the eighth best prospect in the system last week, and if I had any faith in him staying healthy, I would’ve ranked him second. Abreu missed camp last year after having his appendix removed in February and he also missed time each of the last two seasons with elbow and lat trouble. The good news is Abreu was healthy enough to pitch in winter ball and he’s healthy now, so he should be a full participant in Spring Training. Staying healthy is proving to be a challenge and I think Abreu is heading for a career in the bullpen, where his raw stuff could make him a big impact guy. Maybe even someone who throws two innings at a time when he first breaks into the big leagues a la 2014 Dellin Betances and 2017 Chad Green. Abreu is on the 40-man roster and could get called up this year, but he’s barely pitched above High-A and anything more than a September call-up would surprise me. His coming out party could be scheduled for 2020. In that case, enjoy the Spring Training look while it lasts.

4. Alright, so who’s going to be That Guy in Spring Training? That random out-of-nowhere player who has a strong camp and gets people talking about him as an Opening Day roster candidate? Jon Weber in 2010 is the That Guy gold standard. He hit .452/.452/.581 in 31 Grapefruit League plate appearances and there was talk he belonged on the roster over a young fourth outfielder named Brett Gardner. Weber, then 32, didn’t make the team and instead went to Triple-A, where he hit .258/.333/.325 (82 wRC+) in 47 games before being released. Womp womp. Anyway, it’s been a few years since we had a good That Guy, hasn’t it? Gleyber Torres had a monster spring in 2017 and the coaching staff reportedly wanted him to play shortstop while Gregorius was on the shelf in April, but Gleyber was too well known to be a That Guy. It has to be someone like Weber or Yangervis Solarte, who turned his 2014 stint as That Guy into a nice little MLB career. Tim Locastro would’ve been a Grade-A That Guy candidate had he not been traded a few weeks ago. Gio Urshela has a chance even though he might not be random enough. Looking over the list of non-roster invitees, my That Guy pick is Matt Lipka. He has all the essential ingredients. He’s a total unknown to most fans (mystery is an important part of being That Guy), he has good pedigree as a former high draft pick (35th overall in 2010), and he’s a speed and defense guy, which will equal flashy plays that stick in your mind. I could totally see Lipka BABIPing his way to a .400-something batting average in 30-ish plate appearances against minor leaguers in the late innings of Grapefruit League games with enough hustle doubles and nice catches to create a “this guy should get the last bench spot” stir, if not a “start Lipka over Gardner and see what the kid can do” movement. Lipka is my pick to be That Guy.

5. One quick “state of baseball” thought to close this out. I’m not sure there’s anything that can be done to fix free agency at this point. Teams are refusing to pay big money to older players (they won’t even pay big money to 26-year-old stars!) and it’s difficult for me to see that changing. It’s not like aging curves are going to change, you know? Because of that, the MLBPA should focus on increasing pay for players with 0-6 years of service time in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. Remember, only a relatively small percentage of players even make it to free agency. Last season 1,379 players appeared in a Major League Baseball game and only 145 became Article XX(B) free agents, meaning they had at least six years of service time. A 2007 study found the average MLB career lasts 5.6 years and my guess is that number has come down as teams increasingly eschew veterans. Raising the minimum salary should be an obvious priority for the union. I also like the idea of replacing arbitration with restricted free agency. Rather than go to arbitration, players with 3-6 years of service time would be allowed to negotiate and sign a contract with any team, though their original team can match it and keep him. The player gets increased leverage and therefore increased earning potential. There could also be a draft pick compensation component as well. Sign a restricted free agent and you lose this pick(s), lose a restricted free agent and you get this pick(s). Something like that. The NHL has restricted free agency and, generally speaking, NHL players make the most money in years 3-7 of their careers. In fact, nowadays many of the largest NHL contracts in terms of average annual salary are going to players in their restricted free agent years. Imagine if Jacob deGrom or Kris Bryant could’ve gone out into restricted free agency this winter rather than be stuck negotiating with one team. Restricted free agency could be a game-changer for baseball and the MLBPA. If not restricted free agency, the union should still focus on raising pay for players in years 0-6 of their career. Get those guys more money because a) free agency doesn’t pay like it once did, and b) only a relatively small percentage of players make it to free agency anyway.

The timing for Clint Frazier to take over left field

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(Presswire)

Left field has been a source of stability for the Yankees ever since Brett Gardner took over in 2010. Yet, as the saying goes, all good things must come to an end. We started to get an idea of what life would be like without Gardner after last summer’s Andrew McCutchen trade. Obviously, McCutchen departed to Philadelphia, but that doesn’t mean Gardy is without competition this year. Clint Frazier is finally ready to enter the fold.

Frazier struggled with concussion systems throughout last season. Had he been able to return, it might have been him instead of McCutchen taking playing time from Gardner. Nonetheless, Frazier has been cleared for spring training and now has a chance to capitalize on this opportunity. He’s made it crystal clear that he wants Gardner’s job:

“I’ve got to go out there and prove to the guys that I’m healthy, and show that the guy that’s been there for the last 10-plus years is someone that I can compete with,” Frazier said Wednesday. “I want to show that I want to take his spot, whenever the time comes…I’m trying to make sure that the way that I’m going about this goal of mine is in a respectful way to him and everybody else as well.”

I really like hearing that from a young player. Of course he wants to start, that’s the dream. It’s not like he dissed Gardner, quite the opposite in fact. So, what will it take for Frazier to achieve his goal?

Opening Day

Never say never, but I wouldn’t count on Frazier trotting out to left field on March 28th. The Wildling has a lot of rust to shake off. Remember that his season was over after mid-July last year, despite a few attempted comebacks. His 283 plate appearances across the majors and minors were a lot more than I realized he had last season, but still, that’s a lot of missed playing time.

What if Frazier rakes in spring training? It probably doesn’t matter. Gardner is going to get the job as long as he stays healthy. Plus, buying into preseason performance is never a good idea. Getting the 24 year-old through spring training healthy should be the priority, anyway. The safe bet is that Frazier will get an extended opportunity to shake off the cobwebs in Scranton.

The only way I can see Frazier with the Yankees to start the season is if a couple of other outfielders are hurt. I don’t think one injury is enough to get Frazier on the team, as the Yankees could simply shuffle the alignment of Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton as needed. If two of those guys go down, it’s a different story. As much as I’d like to see Frazier in the big leagues, I’d rather not have it happen because of injuries.

Mid-Season

Frazier might not need too much time in Triple-A if all goes well. He posted a 170 wRC+ in 216 plate appearances with the RailRiders last season, and if he’s anywhere remotely near that stratosphere after a few weeks, why keep him there? A somewhat understandable reason would be that Gardner is playing well. But if that’s not the case, the Yankees’ good faith in monitoring Frazier’s health could actually become their ace in the hole. In a bad faith sort of way.

According to Frazier’s Baseball Reference player page, he has one year and 57 days of major league service time. The regular season is 187 days long, but a player only needs 172 to accrue one full year. That means Frazier needs 115 days on the major league roster to get to up two years of service (#math). My guesstimate is that June 9th would be the day the team is free and clear to promote Frazier for good while obtaining an extra season of control. I absolutely hate that idea, and the Yankees should never operate that way, but I don’t think it can be discounted. The Yankees could easily play it off as ensuring that Frazier is completely back in the swing of things.

We’ll see Frazier this summer, service time manipulation or not. It’s difficult to imagine Gardner bouncing back, or at the minimum, avoiding his annual second half fade. Frazier has the ability and desire to be the starter. It’s just a matter of when, assuming good health.

Wait ’til next year

A few things could go wrong to prevent Frazier from taking over this year. It’s not something anyone wants to think about, but it can’t be disregarded as a possibility.

Setbacks happen. We saw how many Frazier had last summer. Would it be a surprise if any of his concussion symptoms recurred again? The good news is that he’s been cleared for camp, but it’s still such a scary thing to come back from. Granted, it would take a season of misfortune with setbacks for him not to ever get a chance to become the starter. I’d like to think he’s due for some good luck this year.

Another possibility, albeit highly unlikely, is that Gardner hits his 90th percentile projection. That would basically be what he did in 2017, but better, right? I’m thinking .280/.375/.460 with 20-plus homers. It would be pretty hard to replace Gardy if he did that. That scenario is pretty doubtful, though it would be fun to see Gardner come up for one last breath of air.

A new team

Most of the Yankees’ trade pieces are pretty far away from the majors. Frazier isn’t technically a prospect anymore, but he certainly feels like one, and if he re-establishes himself this year he could become the Yankees’ best chip at the deadline. Even if Gardner struggles, the Yankees could shift Stanton into left field regularly, leaving Frazier the odd man out. With Hicks and Judge in the other two outfield spots, Frazier might find a better opportunity elsewhere.

Final thoughts

Frazier is a personal favorite of mine, so I’d like to see him get the job sooner rather than later. That’s nothing against Gardner, who’s been a lot of fun to pull for too, but his time has almost come. Of all the scenarios I laid out, I believe that a June promotion is what we’ll see. There’s always the chance of an injury forcing the team’s hand sooner, but I have a sinking feeling that the team will use his return from the concussion as a reason to get an extra season of control.

A right-handed heavy lineup is unusual for the Yankees, but that doesn’t make it a problem

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

On the eve of pitchers and catchers reporting, there is one thing we know with absolute certainty about the 2019 Yankees: Their projected starting lineup will be very right-handed. With Didi Gregorius injured Aaron Hicks is far and away the club’s best left-handed threat, and he’s a switch-hitter. Brett Gardner can still grind out an at-bat like nobody’s business, but an offensive linchpin he is not.

Easily searchable team platoon split data goes back to 2002 and last season the Yankees gave 63.2% of their plate appearances to right-handed batters, their highest rate in that time frame. For reference, 58.9% of plate appearances league-wide went to righties in 2018. The team’s swing in right-handed plate appearance percentage over the last five years is pretty amazing:

  • 2018: 63.2%
  • 2017: 59.1%
  • 2016: 40.1%
  • 2015: 31.4%
  • 2014: 35.8%

Four years ago the Yankees were very left-handed and we all complained they were too prone to infield shifts. Now the Yankees are very right-handed and the complaint is, uh, they strike out too much? The strikeout issues aren’t as bad as you may think — the Yankees had a 22.7% strikeout rate as a team last year, just above the 22.3% league average — but we need something to complain about, I guess.

“Hopefully we can get some balance with a more fluid offense that can score a lot of different ways,” Brian Cashman said during his end-of-season press conference and adding balance is not what happened this winter. The Yankees replaced Gregorius with the righty hitting Troy Tulowitzki and essentially replaced the switch-hitting Neil Walker with the righty hitting DJ LeMahieu. Also, Luke Voit is poised to fully replace Greg Bird at first base.

Last year the Yankees took nearly two-thirds of their plate appearances right-handed and, with Gregorius sidelined and Voit pushing Bird out of the picture, it’s possible they’ll take even more plate appearances right-handed this year. It is very un-Yankee-like. The franchise’s history is littered with patient and powerful left-handed batters and the new Yankee Stadium is tailor-made for lefties. That right field short porch is begging to peppered with fly balls.

Being so right-handed is not necessarily a detriment. The 2017 World Series champion Astros took 64.7% of their regular season plate appearances right-handed, for example. They pulled it off because they didn’t just have a lot of right-handed hitters. They had a lot of great right-handed hitters. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, so on and so forth. The Yankees are cut from a similar cloth with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, etc.

In fact, the lineup being so right-handed last season did not stop the Yankees from being one of the best hitting teams against right-handed pitchers. Their numbers and league ranks against righty pitchers in 2018:

  • AVG: .254 (seventh best)
  • OBP: .330 (fourth best)
  • SLG: .471 (second best)
  • wRC+: 115 (second best)

The Yankees were actually quite a bit better against righties (115 wRC+) than lefties (102 wRC+) last season, which is not what I would’ve guessed. We can’t chalk that up to small sample size noise either. The Yankees collectively had over 2,300 plate appearances against southpaws last season. I guess it’s just one of those things. I know if I were a lefty pitcher, I wouldn’t want to face the Yankees. I wouldn’t want to face them as a righty either, but I digress.

On the aggregate, the Yankees were very productive against right-handed pitchers last season despite having such a right-handed heavy lineup. That doesn’t mean there weren’t moments when being so right-handed worked against them. I think we all remember Justin Verlander cutting through the Yankees in early-May* …

… and Sergio Romo getting some key right-on-right outs with that frisbee slider in the late innings for the Rays. Overall, the Yankees were really good against righties last season. There were still times when a little more balance would’ve been nice, the same way a little more balance would’ve been nice when the Yankees were so left-handed in 2015. Same idea, different sides of the plate.

* Fun Fact: The Yankees won that game thanks to this.

Cashman and the Yankees had literally an entire offseason to add left-handed balance to their lineup and they instead doubled down on righties with Tulowitzki and LeMahieu. Michael Brantley, Daniel Murphy, and Jed Lowrie were all out there ready to add lefty thump to the lineup, but the Yankees passed. Bryce Harper and switch-hitter Marwin Gonzalez are still out there, yet the Yankees are showing essentially zero interest.

With Tulowitzki, the Yankees brought him because he is basically free and teams love free. Why pay something for something when you could possibly get something for nothing? With LeMahieu, it was about the total package. From Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d):

The Yankees viewed LeMahieu as the second-best free-agent infielder behind Manny Machado, ranking him ahead of Marwin Gonzalez, Jed Lowrie and the rest. LeMahieu, in the club’s opinion, offers elite defense and superior makeup, and some of the team’s internal data suggested he was under-valued offensively.

The Yankees didn’t ignore the lack of lefties because they’re dumb or oblivious. They just don’t value lineup balance much. Overall talent and expected production trumps handedness. The same applies to the pitching staff. Three lefty starters were acquired this offseason (J.A. Happ, James Paxton, CC Sabathia). Why? Because they were the best available players at their price points (which is another topic for another time). Not because they’re lefties.

Four right-handed hitting Yankees batted at least 300 times against right-handed pitchers last season and the worst of those four was Stanton, who hit .249/.328/.465 (112 wRC+) against northpaws, and that’s pretty darn good. Last year was last year though, and just because the Yankees hit righties well with a right-handed lineup last year does not mean they’ll do it again this year. There are three reasons I’m not sweating this though:

  1. The righty bats are really good. It’s one thing to stack your lineup with righties like late career Vernon Wells and Kevin Youkilis, Eduardo Nunez, and Ben Francisco. It’s another to do it with Judge, Stanton, Torres, Andujar, and Gary Sanchez.
  2. Most of the righty bats are young. Tulowitzki is 34 and LeMahieu is 30. They’re the exceptions. Stanton is 29, Judge and Sanchez are 26, Andujar is 23, and Torres is 22. Age-related decline is not a concern with these righty hitters.
  3. Personnel changes during the season because that’s baseball. Who had Andrew McCutchen and Luke Voit hitting first and fifth, respectively, in the Wild Card Game at this time last year?

You can add Sir Didi’s eventual return here, giving the Yankees another lefty bat, though I’m inclined to treat anything Gregorius gives the team this year as a bonus. He is expected back at some point and that’s great. After a major procedure like Tommy John surgery, I prefer to prepare for the worst. Gregorius will probably hit the ground running when he returns. There is a chance he won’t though.

In a perfect world the Yankees would sign Harper and plop him into the middle of the lineup, mostly because he’s a very dangerous hitter and partly because he’s a lefty. That’s probably not going to happen, unfortunately. Greg Bird staying healthy and remembering how to hit would help balance the lineup, but, given his recent track record, it’s impossible to count on that. What you see is what you get with the lineup right now.

A righty heavy lineup is not inherently a bad thing. Again, the Astros won the World Series two years ago with a ton of righties. It can work. The Yankees have prioritized talent over handedness, and as the season plays out, they’ll have a chance to adjust the lineup as necessary. My guess is the right-handed heavy lineup will be one of those things that is discussed as a potential issue all season but is never actually a significant problem, kinda like last year.

Examining James Paxton’s home run spike

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At least Paxton won’t have to face Judge anymore. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Leaving Safeco Field T-Mobile Park (good luck getting used to that) to call the Bronx home will be a new challenge for James Paxton. Seattle is not an easy place to hit homers, much unlike Yankee Stadium. This is somewhat worrisome because Paxton had some issues with the long ball last season. Yet, home run prevention was once one of the southpaw’s strengths. He allowed only 0.7 homers per nine innings leading up to 2018, but suddenly permitted 1.3 per nine in 2018. Was it a blip? Hopefully. Maybe last year was just “one of those years”.

Even if he had some misfortune last season, Paxton inevitably will allow more homers as a Yankee than as a Mariner. He’s already gotten a taste of what Yankee Stadium can do to pitchers:

Pretty easy to see why. That was from his only start ever at Yankee Stadium. Miguel Andujar’s homer was not clobbered (94.8 MPH exit velocity) but it landed over the fence, 339 feet away. Paxton sure looked befuddled. That dinger was one of two Paxton gave up that game, the other to Aaron Judge.

Those short porch specials are going to happen and they be part of the reason he’ll allow homers in pinstripes. It’s just a question of which Paxton will experience the increase: the pre-2018 version, his 2018 self, or something in the middle? If it’s the pre-2018 version, we might only be talking about 14 or 15 homers allowed all year, which is still great. If it’s a jump over what happened in 2018, he could allow 26 or 27, which is a lot.

A fun thing to do is to look at an overlay of the line drives and fly balls Paxton allowed last season on an over Yankee Stadium’s dimensions. This might look scary, given how many of the non-dark red dots are over the wall in the Bronx. Not to fear though, it’d be silly to count those up an assume that’s going to be his increase over last year. After all, he’s not going to make all (hopefully) 30-plus starts at home. It’s an interesting chart to look at, and easy to understand, but we have to look deeper to figure out why the lefty gave up so many more homers in 2018.

Batters hit more fly balls against Paxton than ever in 2018, increasing from 32.7% to 41.1% year-over-year. That on it’s own will lead to more home runs. More fly balls are more opportunities for dingers. Certainly that helps us understand why he went from nine to 23 home runs allowed, but there’s more to it.

It’s not surprising that he gave up more fly balls because Paxton increased the elevation of his pitches last season. What is surprising is the jump in home runs allowed per fly ball (HR/FB rate). Paxton always fared better at homer suppression than the rest of the league up until last season, with the exception of 2013. Let’s just ignore that first season because he only tossed 24 innings.

Year Paxton League
2013 12.5% 10.5%
2014 6.4% 9.5%
2015 11.1% 11.4%
2016 8.2% 12.8%
2017 7.8% 13.7%
2018 14.4% 12.7%

To this in perspective, if Paxton maintained his 7.8% HR/FB ratio from 2017 in 2018, he’d have allowed a dozen dingers, a small increase from nine in 2017. In an overly simplistic way, that essentially attributes three home runs to the increase in fly ball rate. How do we make up the gap for the other eleven? Obviously, the higher rate of homers per fly ball is the big culprit. That leaves us to figure out why that ratio spiked.

It makes sense to hone in on his fastball and cutter to investigate his home run woes. He throws those pitches about 75 percent of the time and rarely allows homers on anything else. I particularly wanted to see how his HR/FB rate changed based on pitch location, so I pulled all of Paxton’s balls in play over the last two seasons from Baseball Savant. Using Z location, which measures the vertical placement of any pitch, I binned all of Paxton’s batted balls by height. For reference, the typical hitter’s strike zone bottoms out at approximately 1.3 feet from the ground and peaks at 3.3 feet from the ground. All but two of Paxton’s homers allowed on fastballs since 2017 were given up in the 1.75 to 3 range, so I focused there.

After not allowing homers in the 1.75 – 2 and 2.75 – 3 ranges last season, Paxton allowed six. There were more fly balls hit, especially in that top range, so it’s not surprising that a few balls found their way out of the park. Still, it’s apparent Paxton ran into some bad luck. In both regions, his actual wOBA allowed on all balls in play was higher than his xwOBA. At the higher region, it was .457 vs. .360, and the lower region, .385 vs. .329.

Now let’s move toward the heart of the plate. From 2 – 2.5, Paxton allowed ten homers on thirty fly balls compared to just four on twenty the season prior. This somehow occurred despite a lower xwOBA in 2018 (.408) than 2017 (.432). In other words: in a season when hitters had poorer quality of contact when they put the ball in play on pitches in that range, Paxton had worse luck.

How can we interpret this information? For one, maybe Paxton was lucky in 2017. Perhaps he should have given up more home runs and that his low HR/FB rate was good fortune. Or, the lefty was really unlucky in 2018 and he truly is skilled at keeping fly balls in the yard. The true answer lies somewhere in the middle of those extremes. Seattle almost certainly helped his HR/FB rate in the seasons prior to 2018, but that doesn’t mean he deserved the results he had in 2018.

Paxton will probably wind up somewhere in the middle of the two versions of himself while in pinstripes. That’s a cop out answer, I know, but it’s sensible. Yankee Stadium gives up more homers, so that’s an inevitable boost to Paxton’s HR/FB ratio. It’s just that we shouldn’t use 2018 Paxton as a baseline for the increase. Projection systems PECOTA (1.09 HR/9) and Steamer (1.17 HR/9) agree, though they are a little bit closer to 2018 Paxton than pre-2018 Paxton.

If all of this makes you worried about Paxton in pinstripes, take a deep breath. Keep in mind all of the good things that he does. He’s got a blazing fastball, a sharp cutter, and good control. He misses a ton of bats. Projection systems like him too, basically just as much as Luis Severino. As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to believe that the southpaw won’t excel in pinstripes. He’s too talented not to.

Badler: Yankees expected to sign top Dominican outfield prospect Jasson Dominguez

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According to Ben Badler (subs. req’d), the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican outfield prospect Jasson Dominguez when the 2019-20 international signing period opens July 2nd. With international amateur free agents, “expected to sign” is usually code for “the two sides have a deal in place and are waiting for the signing period to open so they can make it official.”

Badler says Dominguez will receive a signing bonus in the $5M range, which is absolutely massive. The largest signing bonus the Yankees have ever given an international amateur is the $3.2M bonus they gave Dermis Garcia in July 2014. To the best of my knowledge the Yankees have only ever given four amateur players a signing bonus worth $3M or more:

  1. Andrew Brackman: $3.35M (2007 first round pick)
  2. Blake Rutherford: $3.282M (2016 first round pick)
  3. Dermis Garcia: $3.2M (international free agent in July 2014)
  4. Gary Sanchez: $3M (international free agent in July 2009)

Brackman’s bonus was part of a four-year Major League contract worth $4.55M. The largest bonus given to an international amateur during the hard cap era (2017-present) is the $3.825M bonus the Rays gave shortstop Wander Franco in July 2017, so yeah, Dominguez’s upcoming bonus is enormous. Here’s a snippet of Badler’s scouting report, which explains why the bonus will be so big:

Dominguez has an exciting level of explosiveness, athleticism and loud tools, with 60s and 70s (on the 20-80 scouting scale) scattered across his tool set. He’s a bursty athlete with well above-average speed and arm strength, excellent bat speed and big power from both sides of the plate coming from his muscular, 5-foot-11, 195-pound frame. Scouts highest on Dominguez raved not only about his tools, both about his ability to both hit and hit for power in games.

The international bonus cap is tied to market size, which means the Yankees have the smallest available pool. Last year they had a $4.9835M international bonus pool, up 5% from $4.75M the year before. Another 5% increase puts them at $5.23M for the 2019-20 signing period. MLB will officially announce the bonus pool sizes sometime in April.

Teams can trade for an additional 75% of their bonus pool — that means the Yankees will be able to add an additional $3.9M or so — and the Yankees maxed out their pool each of the last two years. They traded for the max allowed and spent it all. I have no reason to believe they won’t do that again this summer. That means they’ll be able to give Dominguez his massive bonus and sign other players as well, possibly to seven-figure bonuses.

Update: Turns out teams can only trade for an additional 60% of their bonus pool starting with the 2019-20 signing period. Assuming another 5% increase to a $5.23M pool, the Yankees will be able to trade for an additional $3.2M this year rather than $3.9M. Not a huge difference, but a difference.