NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Mailbag: Baseball Economics, Opportunity Cost, and Prospects

February 15, 2019 by Domenic Lanza

I’m pinch-hitting for Mike again, and I have thirteen questions to work with. As always, you can send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and we’ll get to as many as we can each week.

Steve asks: The Players Association is floating the idea of having less team control in the next CBA. I think owners would welcome the chance to determine what they want to pay rather than have an arbitrator decide for them especially given the recent weak free agent markets.

Do players fare better in their last year of arbitration than they do as free agents in recent years?

It kind of remains to be seen, doesn’t it?

Bryce Harper ($21.625 MM) and Manny Machado ($16 MM) should be locks to do better in free agency than they did last year, but it remains to be seen if that’ll happen. If I had to guess, I still think they’ll both do better – but I’m less confident about Harper besting last year’s salary than I was even a few weeks ago.

Last off-season, the top-tier free agents almost unanimously bested their salaries from their final year of arbitration eligibility. J.D Martinez, Eric Hosmer, and Jake Arrieta all fared significantly better in terms of AAV, as did Alex Cobb and Zack Cozart (albeit with much less money overall). The lone exception is Mike Moustakas, who ended up taking a $3.2 MM paycut in re-signing with the Royals on March 10.

It’s difficult to draw parallels to the top-tier free agents this off-season, as precious few of them have actually signed. The largest contracts have shook out as follows:

Patrick Corbin made $7.5 MM in 2018, and his new contract will pay him an AAV of $23.333 MM over the next six years.
Nathan Eovaldi is something of a unique case, given his injuries, but he did well, too, jumping from $2 MM last year to $17 MM per season through 2022.
A.J. Pollock made $7.75 MM last year, and will earn a minimum of $13.75 MM per year for the next four years.
Andrew McCutchen is coming off of a team-friendly contract extension, and will earn about $2 MM more per year.
Zack Britton received a $1 MMish raise over the next three years.
J.A. Happ received a $4 MMish raise over his previous free agent contract.

It has unfolded in a similar manner – lest we forget that Jake Arrieta didn’t sign until March last year – which sees players getting raises, but only the upper-echelon players receiving significantly more. However, the mid-level free agents have been squeezed in back-to-back off-seasons now; and it isn’t just traditional free agents.

Over the past two off-seasons, we have seen Mike Fiers (121 ERA+ in 172.0 IP), Matt Adams (115 OPS+ in 367 PA), Jared Hughes (146 ERA+ in 59.2 IP), Derek Dietrich (112 OPS+ in 551 PA), Wilmer Flores (107 OPS+ in 429 PA), and Blake Parker (128 OPS+ in 66.1 IP) non-tendered coming off of solid seasons, despite relatively minuscule arbitration figures. And those of them that did end up signing ended up receiving less than their estimated arbitration figures; it’s a disconcerting trend, to say the least.

The short version of this long-winded nonsense is that most players that go from their final year of arbitration eligibility to free agency tend to get a pay raise, though it’s often comparatively modest.

Bob asks: Great job on the Prospect List! I noticed that many of the power arms have command, control or third pitch issues and may be headed for future relief roles. Hitting generally can be taught (i.e. launch angle, backspin, plate discipline) and improved through at-bats. Is it more difficult to teach command, etc.? While relievers are valuable, guys who can go through the lineup 2-3 times are more valuable. Wouldn’t a focus on command and multiple pitches rather than selecting big kids who can throw a ball through a brick wall garner more starting pitchers?

It is an almost universally-held belief that command is the most difficult thing to teach a baseball player. It’s not just a matter of teaching a pitcher how to locate; it involves overhauling mechanics, changing speeds, accounting for the movement in one’s pitches, and the like. It’s something that pitching coaches try to work on at every level, but it’s incredibly difficult to do.

I base this on nothing by my own observations and anecdotal evidence, but it seems like experience is the only thing that can truly teach command. Randy Johnson was pushing 30 when he harnessed his control, and the command came shortly thereafter. Bartolo Colon didn’t become an artist at the corners until he was in his 30s, either. It’s not all that uncommon to see that sort of thing click as a pitcher learns his craft at the highest level – but that’s not really an answer, either.

David asks (short version): The proposed three batter rule will have a significant effect on teams like the Yankees that like to have a defined inning for each reliever. Under the current system, assume Sevy goes 7.1 innings before tiring or reaching his maximum pitch count. Assuming the score is close, the Yankees would go to Dellin for the last two outs of the 8th. They would then go to Chapman in the 9th. Under the new rule, if Dellin faced 2 batters and got 2 outs, they couldn’t go to Chapman in the 9th because Dellin didn’t face his third required batter. Don’t you think this qualifies as a huge impact on the Yankees?

This is actually a common misconception that I’ve been seeing all over Twitter and other blogs. The three-batter minimum, as per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, “[t]he rule would apply to all pitchers, except in instances in which pitchers finish an inning or are injured, sources said.” Therefore, in this particular situation Betances would be free and clear after those two outs.

Rob asks: Why do you think the yankees were willing to pull the trigger on Stanton (a weak defensive outfielder they didn’t really need) instead of waiting for Machado (gold glove 3B they need) for a very similar AAV?

Stanton isn’t – or wasn’t – a bad defensive outfielder. UZR/150 has him as 5.1 runs above-average in right for his career, and DRS/150 has him at roughly 7.0 runs saved per year. And that’s in 8590 inning out there, so it’s a very compelling sample size. He looked bad at times in left last year, to be sure, but he was learning a new position in a new park with a new team, so I’d hazard that his struggles are understandable.

I also don’t think it’s quite fair to say that the Yankees didn’t really need him. They had a void at DH, and he was the reigning (and deserving) NL MVP. Stanton was certainly something of a luxury – but can’t you say the same thing about Machado now, given how well Miguel Andujar played last year? Machado’s a big upgrade, but so was Stanton over Jacoby Ellsbury or whoever else they would’ve trotted out to DH.

And the AAV isn’t necessarily similar. Stanton’s luxury tax hit for the Yankees is around $22 MM for the entirety of his deal, due to the money chipped-in by the Marlins. We don’t yet know what Machado will earn, so it’s difficult to make a comparison – but most folk felt that he was a lock for $30 MM+.

Now, as to the why of all of this: I don’t know that they go hand-in-hand. The Yankees, despite whatever statements to the contrary, have the money to sign Machado. The issue is that they’re functioning on self-imposed austerity. More to the point, though, Stanton was available last off-season for scraps, and he made a great deal of sense at the time. Without Stanton, do they break 100 wins and make it to the ALCS last year? Probably not.

Frank asks: I was looking over the PECOTA projections and 3 things struck me as odd.

1. LeMahieu’s 3.0 WARP
2. Voit’s 1.3 FRAA
3. Hicks’ -7.3 FRAA

Are any of those projections really valid based on each player’s history?

LeMahieu stands out the most to me, as PECOTA projects him to slash .290/.358/.417 in 594 PA, which is superior to what he did last year in fewer plate appearances … and he posted 4.2 WARP in 2018. The issue, however, seems to be entirely tied to defense: he had 20.1 FRAA last year, and they’re projecting 6.2 FRAA in 2019. Is that fair? Maybe. FRAA had him as a scratch defender from 2013 through 2016, so it’s not shocking to see quite a bit of regression there – especially when they also forecast him bouncing between three positions.

Voit’s defense is interesting, because the metrics are all over the place. FRAA, DRS, and UZR loved him in 186 innings in 2017, and hated him in 287 innings lat year. The eye test isn’t friendly, though, so I think that it’s likely that he is a negative defender at first. But, given the small sample sizes, I don’t really have a strong opinion on this.

And FRAA had Hicks at -8.6 last year, so they actually have him improving a bit. This one I just straight-up don’t buy, though. It doesn’t jibe with the eye test, and DRS and UZR both had him as average last year (and well above-average before that).

Rex asks: A die-hard Yankee fan since 1955, I’ve always used batting average,rbi’s, and home runs to gauge a players production. I lose interest in a story when terms like WAR,BABIP, and other analytics are used…simply because I don’t understand them…and I would bet the grocery money that I am not alone in this! Would you please publish a list of these terms, and a short summary on why we should give a damn about them. I was in broadcast news 35 years and learned I should not assume that my audience knew what I knew about a topic.

We do have a glossary of the statistics that are frequently used around these parts, which you can find here.

Paul asks: Do you think teams may be waiting for spring training to sign free agents since they can move their injured players to the 60-day IL instead of having to DFA Fringe 40-man players?

I hadn’t considered this until reading this e-mail, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a mild flurry of activity once the 60-day injured list opens for business. Flurry may be too strong a word, considering that there may not be all that many players that will hit the injured list – but, given the preciousness of 40-man roster spots, it could help out some of the lower-level free agents that are looking for a gig with a real shot at playing time.

Mike asks: I’m just trying to find a positive in the Yankees not signing Harper. Do you think they’re passing so they can sign Trout instead?

Sure. And then they’ll pass on him to sign Francisco Lindor the next off-season. And then they’ll pass on Lindor to sign Alex Bregman the following year.

Any claims that the Yankees are passing on ‘x’ now to sign ‘y’ later are disingenuous at best; or, if it’s a legitimate strategy, foolish. Counting on players to retain their skill level, stay healthy, and not sign an extension is a recipe for disaster – especially when it comes at the cost of a better chance of winning now.

John asks: The farm system rankings are confusing me. Experts are ranking the Yankees system in the bottom half of the league (19 by Law and you agreed on your chat). However from reading you and those same other sources, very few teams have this many uber talented 17-19 year old players. Even Keith Law says that players like Pereira are poised to jump into the top 100 this year. No one would be surprised if Cabello (still don’t get how people compare him to Vlad and Soto and don’t rate him higher), Pereira, Deivi, Freicer Perez, Roansy Contreras, Seigler, and a bunch more prospects shot up prospect lists. Most teams would rather have star potential then a bunch of solid players. Granted most will miss but there are so many talented young players, that some will break out. I don’t expect the Yankees to have a top 10 system with only 2 or 3 top 100 prospects, but I find it hard to believe there are 18 other baseball systems that I would rather have then the Yankees. Am I missing something?

I think you answered your own questions without really knowing it – the vast majority of their big-time potential stars are teenagers that have not yet sniffed the upper minors, meaning their risk factors are higher. Injuries don’t help, either. With that in mind, take a look at their top-ten prospects:

Estevan Florial – missed two months last season; has yet to reach Double-A
Jonathan Loaisiga – has thrown just 184.1 IP in six seasons; missed a month with shoulder soreness last year
Anthony Seigler – 19-years-old; 2018 draft pick; may not reach full-season ball this year
Everson Pereira – 17-years-old; has yet to play full-season ball
Antonio Cabello – 18-years-old; has yet to play full-season ball
Deivi Garcia – 19-years-old; one start above High-A
Roansy Contreras – 19-years-old; has yet to play full-season ball
Albert Abreu – has battled injuries (including elbow inflammation) in each of the last two years
Mike King – probably MLB-ready
Luis Medina – 19-years-old; has yet to play full-season ball

Is there a hell of a lot of talent here? Absolutely. But eight of those guys are pretty far from the majors, and one of the two that’s knocking on the door has never been healthy for a full season. That makes for what might just be the highest-risk, highest-reward farm system around – but the beta is tremendous.

Adam asks: 12-ptch roster limit. I, too, am not in favor of this proposed rule change. Assuming this winds up getting approved, do you think there’s a way to game the system i.e., label a pitcher as a “position player” under the pretense of using him as a bench bat and then subsequently bring that “position player” in as a pitcher? After all, position players do pitch here and then. Or would MLB just deem this to be blatant circumvention of the rule?

There’s no way MLB would let this fly. I’m assuming that the team will have to name their pitchers in advance of the game (or whenever they adjust their roster), and only those designated as pitchers will be able to head to the mound. The wrinkle, of course, is someone like Shohei Ohtani, who might require the changes to the roster to be game-by-game.

Tim asks: The question I’ve been asking myself during the whole Machado/Harper discussion is this: how great is the incremental improvement to the team from one superstar, versus the opportunity cost of spending the money in the future when a more dire need is evident. It’s clear that the team is now adhering to a budget of sorts. Who doesn’t want a superstar, but if the choice is to sign Machado now and have the offense get marginally better (ok, and the defense much better), or be able to trade for a couple of key players in July because of injuries, I know which way I’d go. Same thing for signing free agents next winter and all the future off seasons. I’d rather the money was spent on a CC replacement, not improving the offense. Does that make sense or am I ignorant on some of the financial implications?

What you’re saying definitely makes sense, there’s just a great deal of nuance in there.

Signing a player now gives you that added value for the entirety of the season. The difference between (hypothetically) the current set-up – Andujar at 3B, Gardner in LF, and Stanton at DH – and a Machado-based set-up – Machado at 3B, Stanton in LF, Andujar at DH, and Gardner as the fourth outfielder – adds a ton of value throughout the season. You’re essentially replacing Gardner with Machado in this instance, while also improving the bench.

I do agree that I would’ve rather spent money on a larger rotation upgrade than Happ, but the Yankees balked at Corbin’s price tag, and there wasn’t really a better option at that point. There’s always an opportunity cost to passing on someone or waiting to see who becomes available, and they have paid some semblance of a price as a result. And, for whatever it’s worth, I’m not sure that I loved Corbin at that price, either.

You also have to make the best of whatever is available. Would a rotation upgrade be better? Perhaps. But when there’s generational talent available on the position player side of things, adding two or three wins there instead of overpaying for a marginal rotation upgrade makes sense.

And, getting to the core of your question, I don’t like putting off something today on the off-chance that you can get something better tomorrow. Putting the best possible product on the field on Opening Day inherently has more value than waiting for a weakness to develop and tackling it in-season. The costs will be higher, and that’s assuming that there’s a solution on the market. Besides, signing Machado or Harper now shouldn’t mean that they can’t trade for a reliever or fifth starter on July 31 – they just cost money, after all.

Their budget is another wrinkle altogether. But we can’t anticipate what their needs might be in July, and waiting to see what happens seems like a recipe for disaster.

Austin asks: How many first round picks have really panned out? I completely agree that the system is broken, and needs to be corrected in many ways, but how many first rounders really have a good career? I can’t imagine its that many. It’s really hard to play in the major league. The numbers probably say he doesn’t have a good chance.

Kyler Murray was the 9th overall pick. As per Baseball-Reference, 34 of the 54 9th overall picks reached the majors, and combined to produce 269.3 WAR (or 7.9 per big leaguer). And that list includes several quality players, including Javier Baez, Kevin Appier, Barry Zito, Geoff Jenkins, Mark Kotsay, Ron Darling, John Danks, and Michael Cuddyer. Appier was the only truly great player on that list (though, Baez appears to be on his way), but that’s not an insignificant number of solid major leaguers. And that’s just from the slot in which Murray was drafted.

Let’s take a look at how the first round picks from 1998 to 2007 worked out:

1998 – 69% reached the Majors and produced an average of 10.3 WAR
1999 – 47% reached the Majors and produced an average of 9.2 WAR
2000 – 57% reached the Majors and produced an average of 7.5 WAR
2001 – 59% reached the Majors and produced an average of 8.7 WAR
2002 – 65% reached the Majors and produced an average of 12.7 WAR
2003 – 72% reached the Majors and produced an average of 7.6 WAR
2004 – 82% reached the Majors and produced an average of 7.0 WAR
2005 – 77% reached the Majors and produced an average of 10.9 WAR
2006 – 75% reached the Majors and produced an average of 8.3 WAR
2007 – 65% reached the Majors and produced an average of 6.4 WAR

That’s a ten-year sample wherein roughly 67% of first-rounders reached the big leagues, and produced an average of 8.9 WAR. That may not sound like much, but there are diminishing returns with each and every round. Moreover, 8.9 WAR really isn’t a bad mark for one’s career. And while that may not mean that a player is a lock to reach the show or be much more than a bench player or reliever when they get there, that group nevertheless has he best chance of reaching those not-so-lofty heights.

Bill asks: There’s been talk of Collusion between owners, i know it’s almost impossible to prove BUT if it was proven that the owners colluded to drive down FA prices, what could the consequences possibly be for them?

The owners have been found guilty of collusion three times before, all in the 1980s. They ended up settling those suits and paying the MLBPA a $280 MM settlement, which the union decided how to distribute to its members. Players that had signed below-market deals were also allowed to field new contract offers in some cases (though that was fairly limited), without having to lose their current deal. I suspect that we’d see something similar this time around – albeit with a much larger dollar figure.

Feb. 14th Spring Training Notes: Betances, Chapman, Sanchez

February 14, 2019 by Mike

Today was the first official workout day down in Tampa. Bullpen sessions, batting practice, the usual. Here’s video of Gary Sanchez taking some hacks. Randy Miller says the players also had their annual media training orientation this morning. Riveting stuff. Anyway, here are today’s notes from camp:

Every pitcher and catcher has reported except one: Dellin Betances. Yesterday his wife gave birth to their first child, Dellin Jr., and Betances is home with his family. Congrats to them. Aaron Boone said Dellin will join the team in a few days. I look forward to the Yankees making Dellin Jr. their first round pick in 2037. [Coley Harvey]
Aroldis Chapman’s knee is in “good condition,” Boone said. “Yes, it’s good,” Chapman added. Doesn’t sound like there will be any restrictions on Chapman this spring, though, as a veteran reliever, his workload will be light anyway. Chapman has averaged six innings the last three springs and only twice did he pitch on the road. [Coley Harvey, Brendan Kuty]
Gary Sanchez is doing well post-shoulder surgery and is targeting the second week of Grapefruit League play to return to game action. “To be honest, guys, I already forgot about last year. I can’t use (the shoulder) as an excuse,” he said. [Meredith Marakovits, Coley Harvey, Erik Boland]
Today’s notable bullpen sessions: Luis Severino, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Holder, Chance Adams, and Stephen Tarpley. Sanchez caught Severino (and Adams), so he’s getting his catching work in with the big leaguers while doing all his shoulder rehab work. [Brendan Kuty]
And finally, welcome back Pat Roessler. He’s rejoined the Yankees in a player development role. Roessler was with the Yankees in a similar capacity from 2005-14 before leaving to join the Mets. He was let go as their hitting coach over the winter. [Kristie Ackert]

More of the same is on the schedule tomorrow. Bullpens, batting practice, pitchers fielding practice, so on and so forth. Live batting practice and simulated games are still a few days away. Position players will report Monday and the first Grapefruit League game is one week from Saturday.

Jacoby Ellsbury keeps moving further out of the picture for the Yankees

February 14, 2019 by Mike

In a sad way, the news was completely unsurprising. Aaron Boone announced yesterday that Jacoby Ellsbury’s hip surgery rehab has been slowed by another ailment (plantar fasciitis), and that he is quite a bit behind the other position players this spring. Opening Day was always questionable. Now it’s a near certainty Ellsbury will not be ready when the regular season begins.

At this point Ellsbury getting hurt or his rehab taking longer than expected is not surprising news. That has been par for the course for a few years now. What is surprising is that he will stay home in Arizona for the next few weeks rather than report with the other position players on Monday. He’s going to continue his rehab at home and join the team sometime in March.

“It didn’t make sense for him to come out here at this point,” said Brian Cashman to Dan Martin yesterday. “Once he’s able to run and move forward from there, he’ll be here.”

Teams typically bring their rehabbing players — especially players rehabbing from a major surgery like Ellsbury — to camp so they can monitor and assist with their rehab. Jordan Montgomery and Didi Gregorius are with the Yankees as they rehab their new elbow ligaments, for example, and they’re months away from returning to game action. Ellsbury stays home, however.

For all intents and purposes, Ellsbury staying in Arizona won’t change anything. He’s still going to do his rehab work and prepare for the season. He’ll just do it at home rather than with the Yankees. Symbolically, Ellsbury staying home is about as fitting as it gets right now. He is the third highest paid player on the team and he is a non-factor, and has been for a while now.

The Yankees have played 19 postseason games during the Ellsbury era and Ellsbury has started four of them. Aaron Hicks deservingly replaced him as the starting center fielder in 2017 and now it’s not even clear a healthy Ellsbury would fit on the bench as the fourth (really fifth) outfielder. Remember when he hit cleanup for a few weeks early in 2017? That feels like a lifetime ago.

There are two years and approximately $47.5M remaining on Ellsbury contract. We’ve spent the last few weeks (last few years, really) discussing hypothetical bad contract-for-bad contract trades that never felt all that realistic or likely. There has been some trade interest in Ellsbury, sure, but a deal with this framework is always a long shot. I see two possible outcomes:

The Yankees release Ellsbury.
The Yankees find a bad contract-for-bad contract trade partner.

Those are listed in order of what I think is most likely to happen. I know there’s some name recognition here, but the fact of the matter is Ellsbury is now 35 years old, he lost his job two years ago, and he’s a speed guy coming back from major hip surgery. What kinda contract would Ellsbury have received as a free agent this winter? He probably would’ve received no offers and been forced into retirement.

Between the ongoing injuries and his drop down the depth chart, Ellsbury has never seemed more out of the picture than right now. He’s not healthy, and even if he were healthy, the Yankees don’t have an obvious need for him. He is the Yankees’ version of the Blue Jays’ version of Troy Tulowitzki. Toronto owed Tulowitzki a lot of money but had no place for him. They could either grit their teeth and stick with him, or they could release him. They released him.

In Ellsbury’s case, the Yankees will recoup salary through insurance — the “recoup 75% of Ellsbury’s salary through insurance and not reinvest it in the team” grift last year didn’t get enough attention — and, as long as that is the case, he will remain in the organization. The Yankees will stash him on the injured list and collect the insurance money as long as possible. And when it is no longer possible, he could be cut loose.

Within the last few years we’ve seen several teams release players with multiple years and big dollars remaining on their contracts. Tulowitzki, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, Hector Olivera, etc. The Yankees themselves released Alex Rodriguez with roughly $28M and one year plus two months remaining on his contract. Teams are increasingly willing to turn the page on bad contracts, including the Yankees.

Ellsbury is so far out of the picture right now that he’s not in Spring Training while rehabbing an injury — when’s the last time you heard a general manager say, “It didn’t make sense for him to come out here at this point,” about a rehabbing player in the spring? — and unless there’s a barrage of outfield injuries, it’s difficult to see where he fits once he is healthy. He’s part of the team but not actually part of the team.

His wallet will be fine, though I feel bad for Ellsbury the person because the injuries are never-ending and it sure seems like baseball is being taken away from him. It is his livelihood and his passion, and I don’t doubt that he wants to get back on the field and play. The injuries are preventing that and it’s possible he’ll never play again like Crawford and Olivera and A-Rod. A release could mean the end.

For the Yankees, the Ellsbury contract never made sense. He simply wasn’t a $20M per year player when they signed him, and that’s on them. Don’t blame Ellsbury for saying yes to that deal. To their credit, the Yankees haven’t let Ellsbury stand in the way of anything on the field. When Hicks broke out, he got the center field job. When there were better postseason lineup options, Ellsbury rode the bench. Now he’s just hurt and the Yankees won’t even bother to bring him to camp.

Letting Ellsbury stay home for a few weeks is kinda weird and also perfectly representative of his status in the organization right now. Out of sight, out of mind. He’s not needed. Let him do his own thing, and should he ever heal up and be ready to play, only then will the Yankees will figure what to do next. My hunch is that will be an unceremonious Tulowitzki-style release. This has been building for a while now and it feels closer to happening than ever.

Eight storylines to follow as the Yankees begin Spring Training

February 14, 2019 by Mike

Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa yesterday and it didn’t take long for the Yankees to suffer their first injury of the spring. Pitching prospect Mike King will miss at least three weeks with an elbow issue. Baseball always has a way of keeping you humble. Excited Spring Training has started? Well you won’t be seeing this pitching prospect this spring, sorry. So it goes.

Position players report Monday and the Yankees open their Grapefruit League season next Saturday. These next ten days are a grind. Baseball is happening and not happening at the same time. We waited all winter for Spring Training to begin and now we have to wait a little longer for actual baseball games, and even then the games are meaningless. It’s baseball though, and baseball is better than no baseball.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is a good time to break down some key Yankees storylines for the coming weeks. Players to watch, trends to track, that sorta thing. Here are eight storylines to watch this spring, listed in no particular order.

Seriously, what about Harper and Machado?

Look, I’m as sick of writing about them as you are of hearing about them, but as long as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned, we have to talk about them. The stunningly stupid prevailing logic says MLB teams all have smart front offices now and they’ve realized paying top dollar for ~~aging past prime players~~ elite prime-aged talent is a bad idea. Did you know ten teams have a sub-$100M payroll? In 2019? Crazy.

Anyway, the Yankees only half-heartedly pursued Machado over the winter and they weren’t connected to Harper at all. “I’m surprised you’re still asking,” said Brian Cashman when asked about possibly signing Harper during the Winter Meetings. The thing is, the longer those two sit in free agency, the greater the chances the Yankees swoop in to sign one of ’em. The temptation has to be there, and, at this point, I have to think a discount is possible.

It feels like everyone I talk to wants Machado and Harper to sign just to get it over with already. We’re sick of hearing about them and, frankly, it’s embarrassing for baseball that these two are unemployed as camp opens. It looks bad. Hopefully the Yankees can sign either Machado or Harper. That would be preferable but weeks ago I accepted they’re probably going elsewhere. Until they sign though, their situation has to be monitored.

Tulowitzki’s comeback attempt

The Good: Troy Tulowitzki has fully recovered from last year’s dual heel surgeries and is as healthy as he’s been at any point in the last couple years, plus he is basically free, so the Yankees could easily cut him loose should he not get the job done. The Bad: The Yankees seem very committed to Tulowitzki as their starting shortstop and I’m not sure they would cut him loose even if his production warrants it.

“The plan right now is to get Troy ready to play shortstop. That’s where he’ll focus,” Aaron Boone said yesterday. “As the weeks — as the months — unfold we’ll adjust if we need to. We’re planning on him playing shortstop and focusing solely there.”

“We were all in. He really looked athletic (during his workout), it looked like he had that bounce back in his step. We feel there is a lot of potential upside here,” said Cashman last month. I totally get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. It’s a low-risk contract and, as a former star caliber player, there’s always a chance he has a late-career dead cat bounce season. Think Eric Chavez in 2012. He’s worth a look with Didi Gregorius out.

Tulowitzki has not played since July 2017 and you kinda have to expect some rust after that. He has been working out all winter — Tulowitzki has been in Tampa working out at the minor league complex for a few days now even though position players aren’t due to report until Monday — but there’s no substitute for game action. Those first few live pitches and ground balls might speed up on him a little bit, you know?

Spring Training performance is not very predictive and that will be especially true in Tulowitzki’s case. Certainly it would be great to see him knock the snot out of the ball and vacuum up everything at shortstop for a few weeks. Even then, we won’t know how long it’ll last because he’s had so many injury problems throughout his career. For all intents and purposes, we’re going into camp with no idea what to expect from Tulowitzki. We’ll learn as we go.

Andujar’s defense

“Entirely at third,” Boone came out and said yesterday when asked where Miguel Andujar will play going forward. “That said, there may be a day or two that we pick to have him on a back field just getting some first base in — which we may do with a (Austin) Romine or a Gary (Sanchez) — pick a day just to keep some versatile options when you get into a little bit of a bind. His game work will be, I’ll say pretty much entirely at third base.”

Last season Andujar was the worst defensive third baseman in baseball (according to DRS) and the Yankees sent him into the offseason with a plan to improve what he does before the pitch is thrown. They want him to get in better position to react and make plays, basically. Andujar’s hands and throwing arm are pretty good! There are times he stumbles over his own feet though, and he rushes his throws because he double-clutches so often.

I have no illusions of Andujar becoming an above-average defender. He is a tireless worker and I don’t doubt that he’ll try to improve. It’s just that going from that bad to that good is unlikely. Has anyone else done it? Gone from being one of the worst defenders in baseball, statistically, to being legitimately above-average? I can’t think of anyone. My hopes are modest. Andujar becomes an average defender who makes routine plays look routine. That’s all I’m asking.

I think two things will happen this spring: One, any Andujar misplay will be magnified, and two, he’ll look better than expected at third base because we’ve kinda lost perspective about him as a defender after spending all winter talking about how bad he defensively. Pre-pitch setup is not something we’ll be able to evaluate in Spring Training. At least not on television. Clearly though, Andujar’s defense is something to monitor throughout camp.

“I feel like he’s in a really good place defensively,” Boone added. “There’s some things that we’ve had him work on defensively that I think have really taken hold with him. And I think he’s had a great winter of work — I think all of you that have been around and have seen the work ethic, that’s reared its head in the winter — I feel that he’s another guy that comes into Spring Training in a really good place.”

Sabathia’s farewell

On Saturday, CC Sabathia will make official what we’ve known for a long time now: 2019 will be his final season. Sabathia will hold a press conference (with his family in attendance) to formally announce his retirement, and mostly take questions because no one has had a chance to ask him about it. Man I hope he doesn’t cry during the press conference. Not sure I could handle seeing the big guy in tears.

Once the press conference is over with, it’ll be time to get down to business. Sabathia had his usual offseason knee cleanup procedure and also heart surgery in December, and Boone said yesterday the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia early in camp. So much so that his first bullpen session could be a few weeks away, which would seem to put his Opening Day roster status in question.

Sabathia is fine, physically. It’s just that the heart procedure interrupted his offseason work and put him behind schedule, and he’s still catching up. The Yankees take it very easy on Sabathia in Spring Training anyway — he usually pitches in simulated games rather than Grapefruit League games — so it’ll be tough to know exactly how far behind schedule he is. He’s a difficult guy to track usually because we rarely see him in games.

If Sabathia has to start the season on the injured list, so be it. Won’t be the only time the Yankees have to use one of their depth starters this year. The larger point is this is it for Sabathia, and maybe Brett Gardner as well, the final two links to the 2009 World Series team. It’s one thing when the veterans assume reduced roles. It’s another when they’re gone and the changing of the guard is complete.

How is the rehab group doing?

The list of rehabbing Yankees is sneaky long. Sabathia did not suffer a baseball injury but he will be playing catch up in Spring Training. Tulowitzki has technically completed his heel surgery rehab but is something of an unknown, physically. Clint Frazier is in a similar spot following his concussion and post-concussion migraines. Here are some of the other rehabbing Yankees and their statuses:

Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery): He won’t report with position players Monday and will instead stay home in Arizona for a few more weeks. Weird, man.
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery): Started a throwing program last week and is a few weeks away from swinging a bat two-handed. The Yankees refuse to give a firm timetable for his return.
Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery): No update, probably because he’s not a big name player.
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery): Expected to throw off a mound next month and rejoin the Yankees sometime after the All-Star break.
Gary Sanchez (shoulder surgery): He is hitting and catching, and will be held back early in Grapefruit League play. Sanchez will be ready for Opening Day.

We won’t see Gregorius or Montgomery participate in Grapefruit League games at all this spring given where they are in their rehab. The same is probably true with Ellsbury, and Heller as well. We’ll see Sanchez on the field and be able to track his progress ourselves. The other guys? No luck. The Yankees will give us updates when they’re deemed necessary and we’ll continue to guesstimate Sir Didi’s return date and Ellsbury’s future.

“I hate giving a timeline because we’ll let the thing play out,” said Boone when asked about Gregorius yesterday. “I think our original was anywhere from 2-4 months maybe into the season. He certainly seems at least on that pace. He’s in really good shape and progressing the way he should be so we’re optimistic that he’s going to play hopefully a significant amount of the season for us.”

LeMahieu’s transition to utility infielder

It has been nearly five years since DJ LeMahieu played a position other than second base. He played one inning at first base in an emergency situation on June 28th, 2014, and he didn’t even have to make a play. A reliever struck out the side in that inning. LeMahieu has played second base exclusively since that date and that includes Spring Training. The Rockies never worked him out anywhere else.

The Yankees are planning to use LeMahieu as a super utility guy — Boone said yesterday the plan is to give Tulowitzki regular rest in April in an effort to keep him healthy, which equals playing time for LeMahieu — and gosh, that always makes me nervous, moving a full-time player into a part-time role. It sounds great, bringing in a regular for a bench role, but it can be a difficult adjustment.

I have no idea how LeMahieu will handle it offensively. Not only is he leaving Coors Field, but he’s also going not going to get as many at-bats as usual. Defensively, I think he’ll be fine. He’s a legitimate Gold Glove guy at second base. His range, his hands, his arm, and his instincts are all good, so it’s not like the Yankees are asking a guy short on defensive tools to move around. I see four ways for LeMahieu to get playing time:

Start at second base on days Tulowitzki sits (with Gleyber Torres at short).
Start at first base when Luke Voit sits (or Greg Bird sits, I guess).
Replace Andujar in the late innings pretty much every game.
Play third whenever Sabathia (and J.A. Happ?) starts to handle all the pulled grounders by righties.

LeMahieu has the tools to play pretty much anywhere on the infield. He just hasn’t played anywhere other than second base in a few years now, so he’s going to spend a lot time working out at first and third bases this spring. Probably more than he does at second. My guess is LeMahieu winds up playing more than expected this season, maybe as many as 500 plate appearances, but this spring will be about adjusted to life as a glorified utility guy.

The few position battles

“Hopefully, if things play out from a health standpoint in Spring Training, there will be very few decisions that we have to make,” said Boone yesterday, and he’s right. At the moment the Yankees are poised to have very few position battles in Spring Training. Two bullpen spots and a bench spot. That’s pretty much it. This is the projected 25-man Opening Day roster right now:

Catcher	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Luke Voit	LF Brett Gardner	Luis Severino	CL Aroldis Chapman
	2B Gleyber Torres	CF Aaron Hicks	James Paxton	SU Dellin Betances
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	RF Aaron Judge	Masahiro Tanaka	SU Zach Britton
INJURED LIST	3B Miguel Andujar	OF Giancarlo Stanton	J.A. Happ	SU Adam Ottavino
Didi Gregorius			CC Sabathia	MR Chad Green
Ben Heller	BENCH			MR Jonathan Holder
Jordan Montgomery	C Austin Romine	???		???
Jacoby Ellsbury	IF DJ LeMahieu			???

The rotation order and the batting order will be whatever they end up being. Those are 22 of their 25 Opening Day roster names though. There is one open bench spot and two open bullpen spots. Should Sabathia have to begin the season on the injured list, then there will be a competition for the fifth starter’s spot as well. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees only have to figure out the 23rd, 24th, and 25th men on their roster.

With Ellsbury out of the picture, the final bench spot comes down to Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and Tyler Wade. There’s a small army of relievers up for those bullpen roles. Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Joe Harvey, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley, so on and so forth. Cessa and Kahnle are out of minor league options and that might give them a leg up on the competition — Boone hinted that Cessa is headed for a bullpen role yesterday — but it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Spring Training competitions are kinda weird. First and foremost, spring performance is not very predictive, and yet teams base roster decisions on spring performance all the time. We see it every year. Bird could hit .350/.450/.750 during Grapefruit League play and it wouldn’t tell us a thing about him going forward, but it would probably land him on the Opening Day roster. Hard to ignore numbers like that, you know?

And secondly, Spring Training competitions don’t end on Opening Day. Whoever wins the final bullpen spot better pitch well during the regular season, otherwise the Yanks will swap them out with someone else. Winning a spring position battle is the easy part. Keeping the job is where it gets difficult. The Yankees have a few roster decisions to make in camp. Thankfully nothing major. And it’s entirely possible those roster decisions could be upended a few weeks into the regular season. Such is life.

Farquhar’s comeback attempt

Last, but certainly not least, the Yankees have a feel-good story in camp in Danny Farquhar. I honestly don’t think he has much of a chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but he’s healthy, and that’s all that matters. Farquhar suffered a life-threatening brain hemorrhage last April when a brain aneurysm ruptured. He collapsed in the dugout while with the White Sox and had to be rushed to the hospital, where he remained for three weeks.

Farquhar’s recovery is complete and he will be a fully participant in Spring Training — his first spring bullpen session is scheduled for tomorrow — which is wonderful news. Maybe he won’t make the roster and instead go to Triple-A, or opt out of his contract and sign with a team willing to put him on their Opening Day roster. Either way, I’m glad Farquhar recovered and able to resume his career, and I think it’s pretty cool he’ll do it with the Yankees.

The Yankees and Severino have discussed an extension, and time is running out to avoid an arbitration hearing

February 14, 2019 by Mike

Barring a surprise Manny Machado or Bryce Harper signing, the Yankees are done with big offseason additions. They are not done with their major offseason business, however. The Yankees and staff ace Luis Severino have their arbitration hearing coming up tomorrow — it is literally the last arbitration hearing on the schedule this year — which will determine his 2019 salary. The Yankees offered $4.4M. Severino countered with $5.25M.

The players have fared well in arbitration this year. They’ve won six of the nine hearings to date and all three starting pitchers won their hearing. Here’s the list:

Gerrit Cole: $13.5M over $11.425M
Trevor Bauer: $13M over $11M
Alex Wood: $9.65M over $8.7M

It seems to me the Yankees will have an easier time defending their number than Severino will his, but what do I know? Perhaps the starters going 3-0 in hearings this year (and teams winning more hearings overall) is a sign the tide is shifting and players and agents now have the upper hand. Then again, starters went 5-5 last year and players went 12-10 overall, so maybe it doesn’t mean anything.

Severino is a Super Two based on his service time, meaning he will go to arbitration four times instead of three. And because arbitration raises are based on the player’s previous year salary, the $850,000 difference between Severino’s number and the Yankees’ number this year represents a sum of money much larger than $850,000. It’ll carry over into future years and could equal upwards of $10M across his four arbitration years.

Let’s use Cole and Bauer as a template. Their average raises during their arbitration years is roughly 85%. Some years it was closer to 80%, other years it was closer to 90%. For the purposes of this exercise an 85% ballpark number will work. Applying an 85% raise to Severino during his four arbitration years gives us:

	Severino wins hearing	Yankees win hearing
2019	$5.25M	$4.4M
2020	$9.5M	$7.9M
2021	$17.0M	$14.3M
2022	$30.6M	$25.7M
Total	$62.3M	$52.2M

(Update: Like the idiot I am, I calculated the salaries with an 80% raise, not 85%. My bad. Let’s roll with it.)

See why that $850,000 this year is not just $850,000? There will be a lot on the line tomorrow. Moreso for Severino. An arbitration hearing win would potentially equal a life-changing windfall over next few years. The Yankees? Yeah, they want to save cash, but they wouldn’t even notice that $10M hit spread across four years. The extra $10M always means more to the player than the team.

Severino said yesterday he wishes he could’ve avoided arbitration — “I don’t think any player wants to be going through arbitration,” he said to Kristie Ackert — and, according to Jon Heyman, the two sides have discussed a long-term extension. They’re not said to be close to a deal and it should be noted they could agree to a long-term deal at any time, even after a hearing. They could rip up the arbitration ruling and work out a new deal.

Yesterday morning the Phillies avoided arbitration with their ace Aaron Nola prior to their arbitration hearing. They cut it close — Nola’s hearing was scheduled for yesterday afternoon — but they got a deal done. It’s a four-year contract worth $45M, plus a club option. The deal can max out at $56.75M. Here is the salary breakdown:

2019: $4M plus $2M signing bonus
2020: $8M
2021: $11.75M
2022: $15M
2023: $16M club option with $4.25M buyout

My quick and dirty math earlier showed Severino could make upwards of $52.2M during his four arbitration years, so, based on that, four years and $45M would be a pretty good deal for the Yankees. Severino would get a real nice guaranteed payday and, even if a fifth year option were exercised, he’d still hit free agency at age 29. The Yankees would get cost control over Severino’s arbitration years and a club option for a free agent year. A win-win? Eh, not quite.

Nola isn’t a perfect benchmark for Severino because Nola is not a Super Two. He was in his first of three years of arbitration-eligibility this winter. His contract buys out three arbitration years, one free agent year, and potentially a second free agent year. The same contract for Severino would buy out four arbitration years and potentially one free agent year. Long story short, being a Super Two means Severino has greater earning potential. The extra arbitration year is big.

It has been seven years since a starting pitcher signed an extension in his first year of arbitration-eligibility as a Super Two. The Nationals gave Gio Gonzalez five years and $42M with two option years back in 2012. That was an eternity ago in baseball years and the market has changed. Similar to Nola, Gio doesn’t really help us figure out an extension for Severino. There are no good contract benchmarks at Severino’s service time.

Severino is will earn at least $4.4M this coming season. That’s his worst case scenario. Nola’s worst case scenario was $4.5M (he filed $6.7M), so even though he took a lower 2019 base salary ($4M), the $2M signing bonus makes up for it on the front end. Starting there, perhaps this extension framework makes sense for the Yankees and Severino?

2019: $4M plus $1M signing bonus
2020: $6M
2021: $9M
2022: $13.5M
2023: $18M
2024: $20M club option with $3.5M buyout

That is five years and $55M guaranteed ($11M luxury tax hit) with a sixth year club option that could push the total value to $71.5M. It puts $5M in Severino’s pocket this year (including $1M right away), buys out his four arbitration years for $33.5M total (it’s a 50% raise each year), one free agent year for $18M, and it gives the Yankees control of a second free agent year. Severino gets a lower 2019 base salary, but the signing bonus puts his total earnings in year one at something close to his filing number.

My table above shows Severino could, in theory, pull down $52.2M over his four arbitration years even if he loses a hearing. Why settle for $33.5M across four arbitration years then? Because it’s $33.5M guaranteed. It’s $55M guaranteed, really, across the entire contract. If Severino gets hurt or his performance collapses, forget it, he’s not making $52.2M during his four arbitration years. He might not even make $33.5M in that case. That’s the entire point of an extension. The player gets the guaranteed money and the team gets a discount/cost certainty.

The Yankees have been stingy with extensions in recent years, especially with players who are years away from free agency, so it would take almost a complete reversal to lock up Severino now. I totally get why they might go year-to-year with him. Pitchers are always and forever injury risks, and these days that big free agent payday probably isn’t going to be there. The Yankees can reduce risk on their end by passing on an extension, which is what they’ve been doing a long time.

That all said, Severino’s salaries could blow up quick in arbitration. He doesn’t even have to get better. Remaining a 130 ERA+ guy who goes to the All-Star Game and strikes out 200-something batters each year will pay very well. If the Yankees are that worried about future payroll, this is the time to lock up Severino. The earlier he signs, the bigger the discount, and if the two sides can avoid tomorrow’s hearing in the process, then even better.

Feb. 13th Spring Training Notes: Sabathia, Ellsbury, Severino, Montgomery, Diehl, Stephan

February 13, 2019 by Mike

It was cloudy and rainy in Florida today but I don’t care. Baseball is back. The Yankees opened Spring Training today and Aaron Boone held his annual start-of-spring press conference (video above). More questions were asked about Manny Machado (two) than Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres combined (zero).

“There’s no question, we’ll embrace (the expectations),” Boone said. “I think everyone that’s been here a while — and certainly the new guys coming in — I think understand what goes along with having the kind of club we potentially have, and being within this organization that the expectations are great. We welcome that.”

Here are some grainy cell phone videos of guys playing catch between rain drops. Hey, it beats not watching grainy Spring Training videos, doesn’t it? Anyway, here are some photos from today and here are the day’s notes:

CC Sabathia has a press conference scheduled for Saturday. He’s going to officially announce he’s retiring following the 2019 season, which is no surprise. Sabathia has been saying this will be his final season since last summer. Also, Boone said the Yankees will take it slow with Sabathia this spring following his offseason knee and heart surgeries. No surprise there.
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) will stay home in Arizona for a few weeks and not report to camp with position players on Monday. His offseason rehab work was slowed by plantar fasciitis. This is kinda weird. Usually teams want rehabbing players in camp so they can, you know, help them rehab. Anyway, Ellsbury won’t be ready for Opening Day. Congrats to the Steinbrenners for getting more of that sweet insurance money.
Jordan Montgomery is right on schedule with his Tommy John surgery rehab. He is currently making 50 throws at 90 feet and has been doing that for a few weeks now. Montgomery will start throwing off a mound next month and he is on track to return after the All-Star break. “I have my sights set on that,” he said. [Bryan Hoch, Pete Caldera]
Luis Severino admitted he tired down the stretch last year and changed his offseason diet and training program to compensate. He dropped 12-15 pounds and focused more on stamina and cardio than weight training. “It’s not easy. I really hate eating vegetables,” he joked. Severino came to camp noticeably bulkier the last two years, but there is such a thing as too much muscle. [Coley Harvey, James Wagner, Meredith Marakovits]
This year’s guest instructors: Carlos Beltran, Ron Guidry, Reggie Jackson, Hideki Matsui, Tino Martinez, Lee Mazzilli, Stump Merrill, Andy Pettitte, Willie Randolph, Mariano Rivera, Alfonso Soriano, Nick Swisher, and Bernie Williams. The Yankees hired Beltran as a special assistant over the winter and Rivera recently said he’ll start working with the team’s young pitchers. I’d bet on Alex Rodriguez showing up to camp at some point as well. Jorge Posada recently joined Derek Jeter and the Marlins as a special advisor, so don’t expect to see him in camp. [Coley Harvey]
The Yankees have invited lefty Phil Diehl and righty Trevor Stephan to Spring Training, the team announced. Stephan gets an invite after all. The Yankees now have 23 non-roster invitees and 63 total players in big league camp. Here’s some video of Diehl and Stephan.
Some new uniform numbers: Adam Ottavino (No. 0), Troy Tulowitzki (No. 12), Tyler Wade (No. 14, had been No. 12), DJ LeMahieu (No. 26), and James Paxton (No. 65). J.A. Happ and Zack Britton are keeping No. 34 and No. 53, respectively. No. 13 and No. 21 were not issued (again).
In case you missed it earlier, Mike King has been shut down three weeks with a stress reaction in his elbow. Baseball is always quick to smack away that first day of Spring Training excitement.

Pitchers and catchers have their first official workout tomorrow. Position players will report Monday and the Yankees will play their first Grapefruit League game one week from Saturday. We have to wait just a little longer until real live baseball returns.

Wednesday Notes: Andujar, Sanchez, 60-day IL, Britton

February 13, 2019 by Mike

Baseball is in the air. Pitchers and catchers reported to Tampa today and Spring Training has begun. Position players are due in camp Monday and the Yankees will play their Grapefruit League opener one week from Saturday. Hooray for that. Anyway, make sure you check out Matt Foley’s piece on Adam Ottavino’s makeshift training facility in Harlem. Here are some other notes to check out.

Marlins wanted Sanchez and Andujar for Realmuto

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Marlins wanted Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar during J.T. Realmuto trade talks earlier this winter. The deal might’ve been expanded to include utility man Miguel Rojas and possibly another Marlins piece as well. Rosenthal says the Yankees wouldn’t trade Sanchez for Realmuto straight up because he’s younger and under control twice as long. Sanchez and Andujar? Nah.

The Marlins traded Realmuto to the Phillies last week for a three-player package that included top pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez and big league catcher Jorge Alfaro, which is decidedly less than Sanchez and Andujar. Rosenthal indicates the Yankees wanted to acquire Realmuto and flip him to the Mets for Noah Syndergaard, which is something we heard back during the Winter Meetings. Talks never gained traction though. Sounds like the Yankees wanted to do all that while subtracting as little from their MLB roster as possible.

Disabled list is now the injured list

The disabled list has a new name. It will now be known as the “injured list” at the suggestion of advocacy groups for the disabled. MLB never did formally announce the change, but teams are using “injured list” in press releases, and it doesn’t get more official than that. There have been no other changes to the DL IL as of now. The MLBPA is pushing to go back to a 15-day IL to help curb roster manipulation. That could happen soon.

“The principal concern is that using the term ‘disabled’ for players who are injured supports the misconception that people with disabilities are injured and therefore are not able to participate or compete in sports. As a result, Major League Baseball has agreed to change the name ‘Disabled List’ to be the ‘Injured List’ at both the major and minor league levels,” said MLB’s senior director of league economics and operations Jeff Pfeifer to the Associated Press. An overdue change, this is.

60-day IL is now open

Quick procedural note: Teams can now place players on the 60-day injured list to open up a 40-man roster spot. I know this because earlier today the Diamondbacks put Taijuan Walker (Tommy John surgery) on the 60-day IL to make room for free agent signing Caleb Joseph, and the Athletics put Sean Manaea (shoulder surgery) on the 60-day IL to make room for free agent signing Brett Anderson.

The Yankees have two 60-day IL candidates in Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) and Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), and potentially two more in Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) and Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery). Next time they need a 40-man spot, I imagine Montgomery will be first to go on the 60-day IL. I should note that, if you put a player on the 60-day IL in Spring Training, the clock on the 60 days does not start until Opening Day. You can’t put a guy on the 60-day IL now and get credit for 40-something days during Spring Training.

Zach Britton is now Zack Britton

Here’s another name change: Zack Britton is now going by Zack with a K instead of Zach with an H. The Yankees announced it last week. “I was born Zack, with a ‘ck,’ but I didn’t know until I went to get a passport it was really with a ‘ck.’ My parents had told me it was with a ‘ch.’ I am blaming my parents,” Britton joked to Kristie Ackert. “The Orioles always just put the ‘ck’ on any legal documents and I went by ‘ch,’ with everything else.”

Ackert says the Yankees and Britton had to rewrite their contract this offseason to change Zach to Zack. Sounds like all his paperwork with the Orioles over the years was correct, but everyone around the league thought it was Zach, and it wasn’t until he signed with a new team that it came to light. Anyway, Britton says going by Zach never bothered him. So far DL/IL has tripped me up more than Zach/Zack, but dude, if you’re going to change your name, don’t change one letter. Go full Giancarlo.

Teams will wear MLB 150 jersey patches this year

Earlier this week MLB announced all 30 teams will wear an “MLB 150” patch on their sleeve this season to celebrate the 1869 Cincinnati Red Stockings, the first ever professional baseball team. They were the first team with an entire roster of salaried players. Teams will also wear the patch on the side of their caps on Opening Day. The patches are pretty snazzy. Here’s a look:

(@MLB)

“We’re excited to recognize the 150th anniversary of professional baseball by honoring our history while celebrating the game and the great players of today. The MLB 150 patch will be a continuous reminder on the field of the link everyone involved in the game today has with the storied history of professional baseball and MLB,” said commissioner Rob Manfred in a statement. Celebrating the first salaried team while clubs simultaneously work to suppress player salaries is something else.