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Setting the record straight

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One of the more exciting aspects to the offseason has been the emergence of Manny Banuelos as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects. Last week he debuted nationally, giving everyone but fans in the tri-state area the opportunity to get a good look at him. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein put together a significant writeup of Banuelos. Ultimately he concluded that Banuelos’ stuff was MLB-ready, but that Banuelos wasn’t ready from an innings and durability standpoint to handle the major leagues. He then concluded his article with a rather odd dig at the approach of Brian Cashman and the Yankees’ front office to the offseason:

In the end, the question of Banuelos’ readiness is less about the prospect and more about the failures of the Yankees to shore up their rotation in the offseason by putting all their eggs in the baskets of Cliff Lee and the anticipated return of Andy Pettitte. “If A.J. Burnett is their number five starter, everyone is happy in Yankees land,” said the National League executive. “If they signed Lee; if Pettitte came back, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Just because the Yankees [screwed] up this off-season doesn’t mean they should sacrifice this kid in the process.”

This is a criticism of Cashman has been bandied about frequently since Pettitte retired. Yet the question remains: what exactly would these critics have liked Cashman to do differently? Did the Yankees really screw up this off-season? It’s true that there were plenty of pitchers available in the free agent and trade markets this winter. So did Cashman err by not landing them? Let’s review, keeping in mind that Lee signed with the Phillies on December 15, 2010.

Ted Lilly: A perpetually underrated fly-ball lefty, Lilly signed a big extension with the Dodgers on 10/16/10. The Yankees never had a chance.

Hiroki Kuroda: Another personal favorite, Kuroda never actually hit the free agent market either. He resigned with the Dodgers on 11/15/10 during the Dodgers’ exclusive negotiating window prior to free agency. When he signed, he said he didn’t need to listen to any other offers once the Dodgers told him they wanted him back.

Jorge De La Rosa: Signed with the Rockies for 2 years and $21.5M with a player option for $11M on 12/3/10. His strikeout rates have always been intriguing, but one could justifiably be concerned about how his career 4.5 BB/9 would play in the AL East. Like Lilly and Kuroda, De La Rosa signed before Lee chose the Phillies.

Shaun Marcum: The Blue Jays traded Marcum to the Brewers on 12/5/10 in exchange for infielder Brett Lawrie. Marcum is currently shut down with shoulder tightness and has never thrown more than 159 innings in a single year.

Aaron Harang: Coming off several poor years, Harang signed a low-money contract with the Padres on 12/6/10.

These are the pitchers whom the Yankees missed out on by waiting on Cliff Lee. Of these, only Marcum could have possibly been a decent upgrade for the Yankee rotation (since Lilly and Kuroda never actually hit the free agent market). However, there are justifiable concerns about his injury history and durability, not to mention the fact that it hardly made sense for Cashman to acquire a starter by trade while he was waiting on Lee and Pettitte to decide.

After Lee signed with Philadelphia, spurning New York for a younger team (ahem),  there were really only two pitchers Cashman could have acquired: Zack Greinke and Carl Pavano. Cashman pursued Pavano, going as far as to make him a significant offer for one year. Pavano rejected it. As for Greinke, Cashman met with him and even listened to Greinke make an appeal for Cashman to acquire him, but he ultimately decided against it. Of all the options, is really the only decision with which one could quarrel. Yet this is why you pay your GM the big bucks. He’s responsible for weighing the performance risk of the potential target (which he judged to be high) against the cost of acquiring the target (which we know to be high).

Ultimately it made sense for Cashman to wait on Lee and  Pettitte despite the risk that neither of them would be donning the Yankee pinstripes this season. He really had no other choice to go all-in on these two pitchers. Was he supposed to fill his starting pitcher slot with the Kevin Correias and Jorge De La Rosas of the league while Lee and Pettitte were still out there? What happens if Lee and Pettitte both want to join the club? The risk of wasting a roster slot with a subpar pitcher was not worth forgoing the potential payoff of a rotation of Sabathia, Lee, Hughes, Pettitte and Burnett.

The alleged “screw-up” of the Yankee front office this season is more a function of things out of Cashman’s control: the timing of the trades, the timing of Lee and Pettitte’s decisions, and the relatively bare starting pitching market. One is certainly entitled to second-guess the front office, but aside from disagreeing with Cashman on whether Greinke would be a good fit in New York the criticism seems unfounded. As unenthusiastic as fans are about the prospect of Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in the Yankees rotation to start the year, there wasn’t a whole lot Cashman could do otherwise to prevent it. Sometimes things just don’t go your way.

Cashman: ‘I haven’t thought about’ Kuroda

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Hiroki Kuroda faces off against the Yankees in June. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Last night, as the Yanks went about bombing the Blue Jays, Ken Rosenthal let slip an interesting tidbit: The Yankees, rival executives said to him, would be all over a Hiroki Kuroda claim were the Dodgers’ right-hander to reach them on the waiver wire. For just the $2.5 million remaining on Kuroda’s contract, the Yanks could have a three-win Type B pitcher who would significantly shore up the back end of their rotation. What’s not to like about the idea?

There is but one problem though: Brian Cashman says the Yankees aren’t interested in Kuroda. ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews pinged Cashman with a query on the Japanese hurler, and the Yanks’ GM shot down the rumors. “What we got is what we’re going with. I anticipate we are going to use the alternatives we have here, he said, referring to Dustin Moseley and Ivan Nova.

Of course, Cashman doesn’t really have the ability to see more and doing so would overplay the Yanks’ hand. First, to express interest in Kuroda right now would be akin to tampering. The Yanks cannot openly covet a player on another team. Second, by letting slip their interest, Cashman would all but assure another team ahead of them on the waiver line would move to block a deal. Since the Yanks are dead last in the Majors when it comes to waiver priority on Kuroda, the stars have to align for the Yanks to land him.

The Yanks’ GM though had more to say on the subject: “I haven’t thought about him. I don’t even know if he’s on waivers yet. Besides, I’d be hard-pressed to find a pitcher on the waiver wire who can pitch better for us than Dustin Moseley has.”

Brian Cashman is no fool, but he seems to be trying to pull a fast one on other teams. Dustin Moseley is 4-2 with a 4.53 ERA, but how well has he truly pitched? In 45.2 innings, he’s allowed 44 hits but has an ugly 23:18 K:BB rate. He’s allowing nearly two home runs per 9 innings pitched and sports a FIP of 5.97. He’s stranded nearly 80 percent of base runners, a mark nearly 10 percent above league average, and his WAR is -0.3. Forget the waiver wire; the Yanks could probably find someone who can pitch as good as, if not better than, Dustin Moseley in AAA.

“I’m not even thinking along those terms because right now I’m not interested in adding anyone,” Cashman said to Matthews. “I like the team we have and I think we have what it takes to get the job done.”

That may be so. Perhaps the Yanks’ budget is tapped out. Perhaps they don’t have the $2.7 million to spend on Kuroda. Perhaps they’re just holding their cards close to their chest knowing that Kuroda may not fall to them otherwise. But perhaps Cashman wouldn’t have spilled the beans to Matthews if they were interested in Kuroda. Don’t let Brian fool you though; interested or not, the Yankees with Hiroki Kuroda are better than the Yanks without him.

Rumor de la nuit: Hiroki Kuroda

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As the August 31st trade deadline draws near, teams — especially those out of contention — are placing most of their rosters on waivers, and the Dodgers are no exception. According to Ken Rosethal, the Dodgers have placed starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda on waivers, and the Yankees are going to be interested. Kuroda is owed approximately $2.7 million through the end of 2010 and will be free agent, most likely Type B, once the season is over. Said a so-called rival executive to Rosenthal, “I guarantee the Yankees are all over it.”

With Javier Vazquez out of the rotation for now, A.J. Burnett struggling to find consistency and Ivan Nova and Dustin Moseley question marks, Kuroda would be an intriguing option for the Yanks down the stretch. Since making his debut in 2008, Kuroda, now 35, has gotten better with experience. This year, he’s turning in his finest season in the Majors, and despite an 8-11 mark, he has a 3.48 ERA/3.36 FIP with a K/9 IP of 7.2 and a K/BB rate of 3.11. Opponents are hitting .254/.303/.367 off of him, and he would be a fine option to give the Yanks’ length down the stretch.

The question though of course concerns the Yanks’ placement in the waiver line. Because they’re not in the Dodgers’ league and have the best record in the AL, the Yanks have the lowest preference for a claim. With the knowledge that the Yanks are interested, the Red Sox or Rays could attempt to block the claim, but they then run the risk of getting stuck with Kuroda’s not-insignificant contract. Anyway, this is one rumor that may have some legs.