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Feb. 17th Spring Training Notes: Lineup, Didi, Stephan, King

February 17, 2019 by Mike

After yesterday’s dual press conferences, today was a normal — and relatively light, apparently — day in camp. Things should pick up tomorrow when position players report. Here are today’s notes:

Aaron Boone said Aaron Hicks is the front-runner to bat leadoff this season, though he hasn’t ruled out Gleyber Torres either. That would allow them to move Hicks and his switch-hitting bat into the middle of the order. Boone added he would “flirt” with batting Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton one-two against left-handed pitchers. That’d be fun. [Brendan Kuty, Joel Sherman]
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) has his next doctor’s appointment in early March, and, if everything checks out okay, he could begin swinging a bat two-handed soon thereafter. Gregorius started a throwing program last week and is currently swinging one-handed with his non-Tommy John surgery arm. [Lindsey Adler]
Boone named Trevor Stephan as someone who’s stood out to him early in camp. “The stuff, the repertoire, the three pitches … It was exciting to see one of our young guys that maybe doesn’t impact our club this year, but it’s a little glimpse of guys on their way a little bit,” he said. I ranked Stephan as the team’s 13th best prospect last week. [Brendan Kuty]
We have our first (unofficial) roster cut: Mike King. He’s shut down with an elbow injury and was sent to minor league camp to rehab. His locker’s empty and his nameplate was taken down. Boone said King has not been completely ruled out for pitching this spring. We’ll see. There are still 62 players in big league camp. [Randy Miller, Brendan Kuty]
Today’s bullpen sessions: Domingo Acevedo, Rex Brothers, Drew Hutchison, Luis Severino, and Stephan. Here’s some video of Severino. [Randy Miller]

Position players will report to Spring Training tomorrow — most of them have been working out across the street at the minor league complex for a week or so now — and new father Dellin Betances is expected to arrive tomorrow as well. The first Grapefruit League game is six days away.

Mike King shut down for three weeks with elbow injury

February 13, 2019 by Mike

Didn’t take long for the Yankees to suffer their first spring injury. At his start-of-spring press conference this afternoon, Aaron Boone announced righty pitching prospect Mike King has been shut down for three weeks with a stress reaction in his elbow. He’ll be reevaluated again after the three weeks and they’ll take it from there.

I ranked the 23-year-old King as the ninth best prospect in the system last week. Boone said King felt something in his elbow during a bullpen session last week, so they sent him for tests, which showed the stress reaction. He’ll be behind this spring and it seems to me he’ll have to start the regular season on the disabled list.

The Yankees acquired King from the Marlins in a minor trade last offseason and he blew up last year, throwing 161.1 innings with a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP). Boone mentioned him as a depth option at some point for the coming season, which seems to indicate the elbow injury isn’t that serious, but we’ll see. Elbow issues are not to be taken lightly.

At this point Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, and Luis Cessa are the top depth starter options in whatever order. With King out of the picture for the time being, guys like Drew Hutchison and David Hale become a little more important.

Florial, King headline 2019 Spring Training non-roster invitees

February 1, 2019 by Mike

In the surest sign Spring Training is fast approaching, the Yankees announced their list of non-roster invitees earlier today. The farm system has thinned out — most of the prospect star power is in the lower minors — and, as a result, the non-roster list is largely devoid of big name youngsters. Lot of journeyman and minor league depth guys. So it goes.

As a reminder, all players on the 40-man roster will be in big league camp automatically. That includes notable prospects like Albert Abreu and Domingo Acevedo. Here are the 21 non-roster invitees:

PITCHERS (10)
LHP Rex Brothers
LHP Nestor Cortes
RHP Cale Coshow
LHP Danny Coulombe
RHP Raynel Espinal
RHP Danny Farquhar
RHP David Hale
RHP Drew Hutchison
RHP Mike King
RHP Brady Lail

CATCHERS (4)
Francisco Diaz
Kellin Deglan
Ryan Lavarnway
Jorge Saez

INFIELDERS (3)
1B Mike Ford
SS Kyle Holder
3B Gio Urshela

OUTFIELDERS (4)
Trey Amburgey
Billy Burns
Estevan Florial
Matt Lipka

The Farquhar, Hale, Lavarnway, Saez, and Urshela minor league contracts are now official. The Brothers, Coulombe, Hutchison, Burns, and Lipka deals had been previously announced. Also, Lail and Deglan are back on minor league contracts. Both became minor league free agents after last season and have rejoined the team.

Florial and King are the two headliners among the non-roster invitees. Florial is the top prospect in the organization (at least in my opinion) and King was last year’s breakout pitcher, climbing three levels to reach Triple-A and put himself on the cusp of a big league call-up. I don’t think King has much of a chance to make the Opening Day roster but he could put himself in position to be the first starter called up when a need arises.

Last week I predicted 22 non-roster invitees. I didn’t have Deglan, Hale, or Saez on my list because they were not in the organization at the time, and I had Coshow and Ford on the outside looking in. Righties Nick Nelson and Clarke Schmidt are the two notable prospects who I thought would get a non-roster invite but didn’t. Schmidt is understandable because he’s just back from Tommy John surgery. Nelson? Dunno. Guess the Yankees don’t think the big stuff/poor command righty is ready for big league camp.

The Yankees currently have two bullpen spots and one bench spot up for grabs. I think Tommy Kahnle and Luis Cessa are the front-runners for the two bullpen spots. Not sure about the bench spot. Could be Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade, one of the non-roster guys, or a player yet to be acquired.

Sorting out the projected 2019 Triple-A Scranton roster

January 24, 2019 by Mike

In the current age of baseball a 25-man roster is not enough. Teams have an active 25-man roster each night, yes, but there are also a handful of players in Triple-A who shuttle back and forth as needed. New middle relievers are brought in almost daily and teams even swap out bench players for matchup purposes going into a series. There’s the 25-man roster and a Triple-A taxi squad.

Last season 49 different players appeared in a game for the Yankees, and that doesn’t include Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo, who were called up for a day (twice, in Bollinger’s case) but did not appear in a game. A total of 1,379 players appeared in an MLB game last season, or 46 per team on average. The Blue Jays led the way with 63 different players, three more than any other team. The Rockies and Astros used only 41 players apiece, somehow.

The Yankees no longer have a top notch farm system but they do have a good farm system. So much of their talent is in the lower minors though, and thus is not a realistic option to be called up this year. The Triple-A taxi squad will likely feature many players we’ve seen already, either guys who were up last year in a similar capacity, or filled a similar role with another team. Some young minor leaguers, some veteran journeymen.

Because the Triple-A roster is now an extension of the MLB roster, I think it’s important to look at the projected Triple-A roster to figure out who fits where, and who could be a call-up option. On paper, the big league roster is fairly set. The Yankees don’t have many open spots or undecided roles, which makes this exercise a little easier. There’s not as much guesswork as usual. Let’s start with position players. Here are the Triple-A roster candidates. An asterisk (*) denotes a player on the 40-man roster.

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Utility
Francisco Diaz	Mandy Alvarez	Trey Amburgey	Devyn Bolasky
Kyle Higashioka*	Greg Bird*	Billy Burns	Billy Fleming
Ryan Lavarnway	Thairo Estrada*	Clint Frazier*	L.J. Mazzilli
	Mike Ford	Jeff Hendrix	Ryan McBroom
	Kyle Holder	Matt Lipka
	Gosuke Katoh	Zack Zehner
	Gio Urshela
	Luke Voit*
	Tyler Wade*

At the moment the Yankees have one bench spot unaccounted for at the big league level. That’s it. Assuming another three-man bench/eight-man bullpen, the other eleven position player spots have been accounted for already. Injuries could change things, of course, and they will, but right now all but one of the 12 position player spots are filled. That makes life easy here. Let’s go through the Triple-A position players.

Catcher: Always the easiest position. Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine are locked into big league roster spots, leaving Higashioka (the up-and-down third catcher) and Lavarnway (has MLB time) for Triple-A Scranton. Diaz figures to bounce between Double-A and Triple-A as needed, which he’s done the last few seasons. Higashioka and Lavarnway will be Scranton’s catchers.

Infielders: Earlier this month Brian Cashman said Voit will be the big league starting first baseman “unless Bird beats him out,” and right now my guess is Bird will not beat him out in Spring Training. Voit was the starter to finish last season and I’ll bet on him being the starter to begin this season. We can remove Voit from Triple-A consideration.

That said, I think the chances of Bird getting the final big league bench spot are annoyingly high. He seems immune to being sent down. Even last August, after Voit took the first base job, the Yankees kept Bird on the bench rather than send him down for at-bats. I don’t get it. If he loses the first base job, he should be sent down, but I just can’t shake the feeling he’s going to be the final bench guy.

Because of that I’m going to assume Bird is in the big leagues, meaning Wade and Estrada are definitely in Triple-A, as is Ford. Urshela has big league time and was the RailRiders’ best hitter late last season, so he’ll of course be in Triple-A as well. That’s the starting infield right there. Urshela, Estrada, Wade, and Ford around the horn. Holder’s going to play everyday in Double-A, not sit on the Triple-A bench. That leaves Alvarez and Katoh for possible bench roles. We’ll get to them in a bit.

Outfielders: Bird getting the final MLB bench spot means Frazier goes to Triple-A, which is fine with me. He missed the end of last season with post-concussion symptoms and getting him regular at-bats in the minors wouldn’t be the worst thing. I expect Frazier to be at least platooning with Brett Gardner in left field by the end of the season, if not playing the position on an everyday basis. For now, he’s Scranton bound.

Burns has big league time and is ticketed for Triple-A. Lipka getting an invite to Spring Training leads me to believe the Yankees are not planning to send him down to Double-A, where he played most of last year. If Lipka is ticketed for Triple-A, it leaves Amburgey, Hendrix, and Zehner for the fourth outfielder’s spot. Zehner has spent the last year and a half in Triple-A and Hendrix has spent the last year and a half in Double-A. Hmmm.

Amburgey had a good but not great year in Double-A last season and, if Lipka is going to Triple-A, I think Amburgey goes back to Double-A to play every day. If the Yankees are willing to send Lipka to Double-A, then Amburgey would go to Triple-A. My hunch is Lipka to Triple-A, Zehner as Scranton’s fourth outfielder, and Amburgey and Hendrix to Double-A. Once the inevitable injury or call-up strikes, Amburgey or Hendrix gets moved up.

Utility: We have two catchers (Higashioka, Lavarnway), four infielders (Estrada, Ford, Urshela, Wade), and four outfielders (Burns, Frazier, Lipka, Zehner). That leaves two open position player spots and, honestly, these are easy calls. It should be Mazzilli and McBroom. They have the most Triple-A time among the remaining players and they’d allow Alvarez and Katoh to play everyday in Double-A. Bolasky and Fleming are organizational utility guys who’ve been bouncing from level-to-level the last few years. No reason to think they won’t do it again.

The Triple-A position player side of things was pretty easy this year because the Yankees have all but one of their big league position player spots filled. Last year we were trying to figure out what to do with Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. That’s not the case now. Anyway, for the heck of it, here’s a potential RailRiders’ lineup based on everything we just talked out:

1. 2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade
2. 2B/SS/3B Thairo Estrada
3. OF Clint Frazier
4. 1B/DH Mike Ford
5. 1B/DH Ryan McBroom
6. 3B/SS Gio Urshela
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. OF Billy Burns
9. OF Matt Lipka

Bench: C Lavarnway, IF Mazzilli, OF Zehner

The RailRiders had some absurdly strong lineups last year before injuries and the trade deadline thinned out the roster. The projected 2019 lineup I have above is quite strong for Triple-A. Devoid of prospects (Estrada is the only actual prospect in that lineup now that Wade and Frazier have graduated to MLB) but still strong. The RailRiders will score some runs this coming season. Now let’s get to the pitching staff.

Starters	Righty Relievers	Lefty Relievers
Domingo Acevedo*	Cale Coshow	Rex Brothers
Chance Adams*	Raynel Espinal	Danny Coulombe
Luis Cessa*	J.P. Feyereisen	Phil Diehl
Nestor Cortes	Joe Harvey*	Stephen Tarpley*
Domingo German*	Ben Heller*
Drew Hutchison	Tommy Kahnle*
Brian Keller	Brady Lail
Mike King
Jonathan Loaisiga*

The Sonny Gray trade means the Yankees now have two open big league bullpen spots. By no means do I think this is set in stone, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Cessa and Kahnle have a leg up on those two bullpen spots because they are out of minor league options and can’t be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers. I don’t think either would clear. If A.J. Cole got claimed earlier this month, Cessa and Kahnle would get claimed.

Because of that, I’m going to assume Cessa and Kahnle are getting the final two big league bullpen spots for the purposes of this exercise. I’m also assuming Heller won’t be ready to pitch Opening Day. He had his Tommy John surgery on April 7th last year and is likely looking at a May or June return. We can remove him from consideration for the RailRiders’ pitching staff. There are 20 names in the table. Removing Cessa, Kahnle, and Heller leaves up 17 candidates for the 13-man Triple-A pitching staff.

Starters: Is it me or does this seem completely obvious? Adams, German, Hutchison, King, and Loaisiga should be the Triple-A Scranton starters to begin the season. Keller is a fringe prospect who was just okay with Double-A Trenton last year. Sending him back there is no big deal. Cortes has done the Triple-A swingman thing plenty already and I think he’s headed for that role again.

That leaves Acevedo, who has a strong case to begin the season in Triple-A after throwing 144 very good (2.63 ERA and 3.06 FIP) innings with Double-A Trenton the last two years. There is a numbers crunch here though. Adams, German, King, and Loaisiga are legitimate prospects (German’s exhausted his rookie eligibility but you know what I mean) who need to work on things in Triple-A and also stay ready for a possible call-up. Hutchison didn’t sign with the Yankees to be a Triple-A long man.

Because of that, I think Acevedo is ticketed for a return to Double-A to begin the season, which is not the end of the world. Someone will get hurt or traded or called up before April ends, at which point Acevedo can come up and assume the rotation spot. Besides, after missing so much time last year, I kinda want to see Acevedo miss bats in Double-A again (20.2% strikeouts last year) before moving him up. Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga is the tentative Triple-A rotation in whatever order, and I feel pretty good about that.

Relievers: Cortes is likely to again serve as the heavily used swingman — part of me wonders whether the Yankees would use a six-man rotation in Scranton to begin the season (probably not) — and the rest of the bullpen falls into place behind him. Espinal and Harvey were a dynamite setup man/closer combination for the RailRiders last year and they’ll do it again this year. Tarpley will join them as a late-inning option.

Brothers and Coulombe have big league time and are on minor league contracts, so they’re going to Triple-A, not Double-A. Coshow and Feyereisen spent most of last year in Triple-A as well and it’s safe to expect them to return to Scranton to begin the season. That’s eight relievers right there. Here’s our final product pitching staff:

Starters: Adams, German, Hutchison, King, Loaisiga
Relievers: Brothers, Cortes, Coshow, Coulombe, Espinal, Feyereisen, Harvey, Tarpley

That assumes Kahnle and Cessa are in the big leagues and Heller will still be rehabbing come Opening Day. Acevedo, Keller, and Diehl go to Double-A. Diehl threw only 26.2 innings at Double-A last year, so going back there to begin this season is no big deal. Lail draws the short straw and is the odd man out, but he bounced back and forth between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and doing it again wouldn’t surprise me. He’s been passed by several others in the organization, like Harvey and Tarpley.

I should note it is not uncommon for a Triple-A team to carry nine relievers and two bench players at various points throughout the season, especially in April, when young starters are still getting stretched all the way out. Lail’s the obvious candidate to be the ninth reliever and I imagine McBroom would get dropped from the position player group to open a spot. Zehner has more Triple-A time and Mazzilli can play anywhere. McBroom rode the Double-A/Triple-A shuttle last year and he’d do it again this year.

Update: I completely forgot about the recently signed Danny Farquhar. He’s obviously going to Triple-A. I think that would mean Coshow gets pushed down to Double-A since he struggled with the RailRiders last year. My bad.

Wade (infield), Frazier (outfield), and Higashioka (catcher) are poised to be the regular up-and-down position players this season. Estrada lost essentially an entire season to injury last year and figures to stay in Triple-A to make up for that lost time. Pitching staff call-ups are a little more up in the air because they depend as much on who’s available (so and so started yesterday, etc.) as they do who the Yankees want to call up. Because the MLB roster is fairly set right now, piecing together the Triple-A team is fairly straightforward. At least until injuries and call-ups throw a wrench into things.

Previewing the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2019

January 22, 2019 by Mike

Three weeks from tomorrow pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin Spring Training 2019. And, at some point between now and then, the Yankees will announce their non-roster invitees. Those are non-40-man roster players they are bringing to Major League Spring Training. All other non-40-man players go to minor league camp at the Himes Complex across the street.

Non-roster invitees come in all shapes and sizes. Some are top prospects and some are mid-range prospects. Others are veteran journeymen trying to hang on. Teams usually bring 20-25 non-roster players to camp each last year. Last spring the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp. Two years ago it was 23. Expect a similar amount this spring. The 40-man roster plus 20-25 non-roster invitees equals 60-65 total players in Spring Training.

So, with the non-roster invitee list due to be announced in the near future, I figured this is as good a time as any to look at the minor leaguers who could find themselves in big league camp this year. Some are obvious. Many aren’t. Let’s break this down position-by-position.

Catchers

(40-Man Roster Players: Kyle Higashioka, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez)

Every year every team invites a bunch of non-roster catchers to Spring Training. Why? Because who else is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions and simulated games? The workload has to be spread around. And remember, Sanchez is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery. It was his non-throwing shoulder, but still. The Yankees will take it easy on him in February and March because they don’t want to put him at risk of missing time between April and November. Expect to see plenty of non-roster catchers against this spring.

Do not, however, expect to see Anthony Seigler or Josh Breaux, the Yankees’ top two picks in last year’s draft. It is not the appropriate place for them at this point of their careers. Only once in the last 13 years have the Yankees brought their first round pick in the previous year’s draft to Spring Training as a non-roster player. That was James Kaprielian in 2016. Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain didn’t even get non-roster invites in 2007. Seigler and Breaux won’t be in big league camp. It’s not their time.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Ryan Lavarnway, Ryan Lidge, Donny Sands. Add in the three 40-man roster guys and that’s seven catchers total. Plenty for bullpens. Lavarnway signed a minor league deal and has big league time, so it’s safe to assume he’ll be a non-roster guy. Diaz has been a non-roster invitee each of the last three years. The Yankees re-signed him as a minor league free agent a few weeks ago and I’m sure he’ll again be in camp as a non-roster guy.

Lidge was the Yankees’ 20th round pick in 2017 and he played most of his games last year with Double-A Trenton. A catcher with Double-A time is prime “someone to catch spring bullpens” fodder. I’m on the fence about Sands. He has no Double-A time and only 42 High-A games under his belt. I’m just not sure who else it would be with Chace Numata and Jorge Saez, non-roster catchers last year, no longer in the organization. Maybe the Yankees have a low profile catcher signing coming? I could see it. I feel good about Diaz, Lavarnway, and Lidge. The seventh spot is a little more wide open.

Infielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Thairo Estrada, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade)

The Yankees currently have nine infielders on the 40-man roster. Nine! That’s a ton. One of them is Gregorius, who won’t actually play in Spring Training because he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but eight 40-man infielders is still a lot. Torres and Andujar are locked into positions now — that wasn’t the case last spring — but there’s the Tulowitzki comeback attempt and LeMahieu learning how to be a utility guy, so there will be some infield intrigue in Spring Training.

Almost every notable infield prospect in the organization is already on the 40-man roster. Kyle Holder is the exception. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring. He also played only 48 games last season due to injury and family matters, and he was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. I still think the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp as a non-roster guy. Holder’s a relatively recent high draft pick and gosh can the kid play defense. If you stuck around to watch the late innings of Grapefruit League games last year, you saw him play a beautiful shortstop.

Lower level infield prospects like Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, and Hoy Jun Park are not non-roster caliber players. Not right now and, given their development in recent years, maybe not ever. In most other years I’d be tempted to say Brandon Wagner is a non-roster candidate. He reached Double-A last season and finished one off the farm system home run lead. That said, there will be so many 40-man roster infielders in camp this year that I think Wagner gets squeezed out. There are only so many at-bats to go around.

My Prediction: Holder and Gio Urshela. Urshela, like Lavarnway, signed a minor league deal earlier this offseason and has big league time. He’ll be in Spring Training as a non-roster dude. Holder, Urshela, and the 40-man roster guys give the Yankees ten infielders for camp, not including Gregorius. Voit and Bird are the only true first basemen among those ten, but LeMahieu is apparently going to play some first, and both Lavarnway and Diaz have played the position as well. Maybe we’ll even see Andujar at first base. Either way, the Yankees are covered.

Outfielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton)

Frazier was recently cleared to play in Spring Training and that’s great news. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does with good health this season. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is coming back from hip surgery and a few weeks ago Brian Cashman admitted Ellsbury is questionable for Opening Day. If he’s questionable for Opening Day, then he’s questionable for Spring Training. So that’s really five healthy 40-man roster outfielders.

The Yankees have several near elite center field prospects but only one, Estevan Florial, will get a Spring Training invite. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring and will be back this year as the team’s top prospect. Others like Everson Pereira and Antonio Cabello will be in minor league camp. Pereira is 17 and Cabello is 18. They are babies. Big league camp is not the right place for them. (Also, Cabello is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery, which is another reason to send him to minor league camp.)

With only five healthy 40-man roster outfielders — and one of those five was only recently cleared for full-fledged baseball activities — it seems to me the Yankees will bring at least one upper level depth outfielder to camp as a non-roster player. The likely candidates: Trey Amburgey, Jeff Hendrix, and Zack Zehner. Hendrix saw quite a bit of time as a minor league call-up in road games last spring. Amburgey is the best prospect of the bunch though, and prospect status tends to break ties.

My Prediction: Amburgey, Florial, Billy Burns, Matt Lipka. Burns and Lipka signed minor league deals earlier this month and the Yankees officially announced both contracts include an invitation to Spring Training, so there you go. There’s no mystery here. They’ll be there. Amburgey, Burns, Florial, and Lipka plus the five healthy 40-man roster guys would give the Yankees nine outfielders in Spring Training. Wade can play the outfield too, so that’s ten. That’s plenty. Part of me wonders if we’ll see LeMahieu out there at some point.

Right-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Chance Adams, Dellin Betances, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Chad Green, Joe Harvey, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and eventually Adam Ottavino)

Heller is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he’s a Spring Training non-factor. I’m looking forward to seeing Abreu and Acevedo in Grapefruit League action, personally. Abreu missed camp last year after having his appendix removed and Acevedo was held back because he spent part of the offseason recovering from a shoulder issue and his velocity was down. I also want to see Harvey because I’ve never seen him before, and Kahnle because I’m curious about his velocity. Hopefully it returns.

Anyway, the Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects. Too bad so many of them are in the low minors. You’re not going to see Luis Medina or Roansy Contreras or even Deivi Garcia in big league camp. Garcia is at best a maybe. I’m not saying that because I don’t like him as a prospect. I do. I’m saying that because history suggests the Yankees will not bring a 19-year-old pitching prospect to big league camp. It’s just not something they do. It’s not something many teams do, in fact.

The second tier pitching prospects though, the 20-somethings with Double-A (and in some cases Triple-A) time? We’ll see a few in camp. Always do. Mike King is an obvious yes. Do what he did last year while reaching Triple-A and you’ve earned yourself a non-roster invite. There’s a pretty good chance King will be called up at some point in 2019 and the Yankees will want him to get to know his teammates and coaches before that, and vice versa. Spring Training is the time to do it. King’s as easy a yes as it gets.

Nick Nelson, Trevor Stephan, and Garrett Whitlock are all potential non-roster candidates as well. So is Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees’ first round pick two years ago, in my opinion. He completed his Tommy John surgery rehab last season and pitched well in his limited game action. The Yankees are set to turn him loose this year and my hunch is that includes a Spring Training invite. He’ll probably be among the first cuts, but I think he’ll be there.

My Prediction: King, Nelson, Schmidt, Raynel Espinal, Danny Farquhar, Drew Hutchison, Brady Lail, one TBD spot. The Yankees reportedly want a swingman/sixth starter type to replace Sonny Gray, hence that TBD spot. Maybe they wind up getting a lefty instead. I’ll play the odds and predict a righty. Anyway, Farquhar and Hutchison signed minor league deals and have big league time, so they’ll be in camp. In fact, the Yankees announced Hutchison’s deal includes a spring invite, so there you go.

Lail’s been a non-roster guy each of the last three years — the Yankees seem to like him despite never calling him up or protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft — and I see no reason to think this spring will be any different. Espinal was a non-roster guy last year and he had a strong Triple-A season, so I think he’s back as well. He’s a potential inventory arm, someone who comes up in an emergency, and candidates for an emergency call-up usually get a Spring Training invite.

I’m going with Nelson over Stephan and Whitlock because, well, I’m kinda guessing here. I think at least one of those three gets a non-roster invite, and Nelson is both the oldest and has been in the system the longest, so I think it’ll be him. If the Yankees bring any other righties to big league camp, I think it’s more likely it’ll be a random Triple-A reliever like Cale Coshow or J.P. Feyereisen than Stephan or Whitlock. Between Hutchison, King, Nelson, and Schmidt, that is plenty of extra multi-inning pitchers.

Left-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, James Paxton, CC Sabathia, Stephen Tarpley)

Montgomery is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and we won’t see him in Grapefruit League games. We might not even see him throw bullpens in Spring Training. Montgomery had his elbow rebuild in June and pitchers usually don’t get back up on a mound until 8-10 months into the rehab process. He’ll just be getting to that point as Spring Training begins, which means little to no action. A bummer, but not a surprise.

The Yankees do not have any notable left-handed pitching prospects now that Justus Sheffield (and Josh Rogers) has been traded. Their best lefty pitching prospect is, uh, Nestor Cortes? Phil Diehl? Not great. Diehl had a statistically excellent 2018 season (2.51 ERA and 2.24 FIP with 36.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks) and the Yankees had him throw simulated at-bats to Judge late in the season, when Judge was coming back from his wrist injury, which tells us the Yankees trust Diehl’s control. Otherwise they wouldn’t have let him pitch to the most valuable player in the organization and risk his wrist getting hit again. Maybe they’ll bring him to camp? Dunno.

My Prediction: Cortes, Diehl, Rex Brothers, Danny Coulombe. Brothers and Coulombe are on minor league contracts and both have quite a bit of big league time, so we know they’ll be in camp. Cortes was in big league camp with the Orioles as a Rule 5 Draft pick last spring — he even made their Opening Day roster — and he had yet another statistically excellent season last year. I think that’s enough to get him to Spring Training this year. Diehl is the token extra lefty reliever.

* * *

Alright, so putting that all together, we come away with 22 potential non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Those 22 players:

Catchers (4): Diaz, Lavarnway, Lidge, Sands or a TBD catcher
Infielders (2): Holder, Urshela
Outfielders (4): Amburgey, Burns, Florial, Lipka
Righties (8): Espinal, Farquhar, Hutchison, King, Lail, Nelson, Schmidt, TBD
Lefties (4): Brothers, Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl

On one hand, the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp last year, 23 the year before that, and 26 in each of the two years before that. Twenty-two this year would be a typical number of non-roster players. On the other hand, the Yankees have at least three (Ellsbury, Heller, Montgomery) and possibly four (Sanchez) 40-man roster players who will be either restricted or completely off-limits in Spring Training. The Yankees might carry more non-roster players than usual to cover for the rehabbing 40-man roster guys.

The farm system isn’t as strong or as deep as it was a few years ago, mostly because the Yankees have graduated so many of their top prospects to the big leagues. Remember when we all couldn’t wait to see Torres or Judge or Severino in camp as non-roster guys? Now they’re no doubt big leaguers. Florial and King will be the obvious “must see” prospects on this year’s non-roster list and, if they get invited, Nelson and Schmidt will be worth watching as well. Also, bet on there being some surprise non-roster invitees this spring. There are always a few.

Prospect Profile: Mike King

December 27, 2018 by Mike

Mike King | RHP

Background
King, 23, grew up outside Providence in Warwick, Rhode Island. He had a decorated career at Bishop Hendricken High School, one that included two state championships and a Rhode Island Gatorade High School Player of the Year Award. King pitched to a 0.69 ERA as a junior and a 0.30 ERA as a senior, and threw two no-hitters. He was also a member of various All-Academic teams.

Despite his high school success Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank King among the top 500 prospects for the 2014 draft, and he went undrafted out of high school. He followed through on his commitment to Boston College and pitched primary out of the bullpen as a freshman, posting a 2.93 ERA with a 35/12 K/BB in 43 innings. He made three starts and 13 relief appearances.

As a sophomore, King emerged as a valuable swingman, pitching to a 3.03 ERA with a 52/12 K/BB in 62 innings spread across eight starts and six relief appearances. King spent the summer with the Hyannis Harbor Hawks of the Cape Cod League, throwing 22 innings with a 3.27 ERA and a 19/5 K/BB. Baseball America did not rank him as one of the top 30 prospects in the league, however.

King took over as the staff ace as a junior and set Boston College single-season records with 16 starts and 104 innings. He managed a 3.29 ERA and a 61/31 K/BB in those 104 innings. His career 3.14 ERA is second best in school history behind former big leaguer Chris Lambert (2.84 ERA). King also ranks tenth on the career innings list with 209.1. He is one of the most successful pitchers in Eagles history.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked King as the 449th best prospect for the 2016 draft. The Marlins selected him in the 12th round (353rd overall) and signed him to a $100,000 bonus. That is $25,000 under slot for all picks after the tenth round. The Yankees acquired King, along with some international bonus money, from the Marlins last offseason for Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith.

Pro Career
After such a big workload as a college junior, the Marlins took it easy on King following the 2016 draft, and had him throw only 30.2 innings in his pro debut. He posted a 4.11 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts and 4.7% walks while pitching mostly in the short season NY-Penn League. The Marlins had King spend the entire 2017 season with their Low-A affiliate. He had a 3.14 ERA (3.97 FIP) with 17.8% strikeouts and 3.5% walks in 149 innings.

The Yankees moved King much more aggressively in 2018. He started the season with High-A Tampa and finished it with Triple-A Scranton. Here are his numbers at each level this past season:

	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	Whiff%
High-A Tampa	7	40.1	1.79	2.46	27.4%	6.1%	59.8%	0.22	13.5%
Double-A Trenton	12	82	2.09	2.70	23.9%	4.1%	45.2%	0.44	9.9%
Triple-A Scranton	6	39	1.15	3.20	21.8%	4.2%	53.8%	0.69	7.7%
Total	25	161.1	1.79	2.76	24.4%	4.7%	50.8%	0.45	10.3%

King ranked sixth in the minors in innings pitched this past season and, among the 510 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in the minors, he ranked second in ERA and 11th in FIP. His strikeout (97th), ground ball (74th), and swing-and-miss (112th) rates were much further down the rankings, however.

Scouting Report
King has the prototypical pitcher’s build at 6-foot-3 and 210 lbs., and while he’s a stats over scouting report prospect, the scouting report is quite good. He gets most of his outs with a sinking two-seam fastball that sits 91-93 mph and will occasionally touch 95 mph. King commands the pitch exceptionally well. He uses it to pound the bottom of the zone and he can throw it to both sides of the plate. He’s quite adept at throwing that two-seamer inside to lefties for the comeback called strike, like so:

Your Michael King front-hip two-seamer for the day. pic.twitter.com/4uOjvSrnV1

— Conor Foley (@RailRidersTT) August 13, 2018

King has three quality secondary pitches but none rate as a legitimate out pitch at the moment. His changeup has good fade and is probably his most reliable offspeed pitch. King also throws a slider that shows promise, and the Yankees helped him add an upper-80s cutter late in the season with Triple-A Scranton. It could be that he’ll wind up a two-seamer/changeup pitcher with several variations of a cutter/slider breaking ball to keep hitters honest.

Nothing King throws is straight and I’m looking forward to him reaching the big leagues so we can get some Statcast data. He strikes me as someone who could be a weak contact type that consistently outperforms his peripherals, similar to the current version of CC Sabathia. King has a good repeatable delivery and he can put the ball where he wants it, especially with the two-seamer. That command helps everything play up.

2019 Outlook
After the season he just had, climbing from High-A to Triple-A, King is a lock to be invited to big league Spring Training as a non-roster invitee next year. There’s a good chance he’ll make his MLB debut at some point next summer. King will be Rule 5 Draft eligible next offseason but I would be shocked if he’s not added to the 40-man roster and brought at some point next summer first. In all likelihood, King will go up and down a few times next season, presumably as a spot starter/emergency long man type.

My Take
There seem to be a very wide range of opinions on King and I lean toward “serviceable big leaguer” more than “impact starter.” I wish he had a putaway secondary pitch — I don’t think it’s a coincidence his swing-and-miss rate dropped considerably each time he was promoted this past season — but, if you’re only going to have one good pitch, a sinking two-seamer is a good one good pitch to have. King is about as safe a bet to have a big league career as you’ll find. I just think he’ll be more of a fifth starter/swingman type than a bona fide mid-rotation stalwart, and hey, teams need fifth starters and swingmen. It’s better to grow your own than pay a couple million for one in free agency.

A New Era in the Farm System [2018 Season Review]

December 6, 2018 by Mike

It has been a crazy few years in the farm system. The Yankees had a middle of the pack system on Opening Day 2016. By the end of that season it was arguably the best farm system in the game, mostly because of the team’s trade deadline sell-off, but also because several guys who were already in the system broke out. Since the end of the 2016 season, that strong farm system has provided a steady pipeline of talent to the Bronx.

The farm system now is not what the farm system was then because of graduations and trades (and injuries and poor performances), which is what we all expected. If you have great prospects, you want them to become great big leaguers and leave the farm system behind. That is exactly what’s happened for the Yankees. The system is back to being middle of the pack now, maybe even worse, and for all the right reasons. Let’s review the year that was down in the minors.

The Graduates

The last two seasons (two and a half, really) have been incredible in terms of graduating prospects from the farm system to the big leagues. Gary Sanchez arrived in 2016. Last year it was Aaron Judge, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green. This season the Yankees graduated 3B Miguel Andujar (season review) and IF Gleyber Torres (season review) to the big leagues, and they finished second and third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, respectively. They came into the season as the top two position player prospects in the farm system.

Also graduating to MLB this year were RHP Jonathan Holder (season review), RHP Domingo German (season review), and IF Tyler Wade (season review). Wade actually exhausted his rookie eligibility last season through service time, but it wasn’t until this year that he exceeded the 130 at-bat rookie limit. Four of my preseason top 30 Yankees prospects joined the Yankees and exhausted their rookie eligibility this season. (Five of the top ten and six of the top 13 on my 2017 list have since graduated to the Yankees.) As a result, the Yankees had the fourth highest rookie WAR in baseball in 2018.

The New Top Prospect

Up until two and a half weeks ago, the Yankees’ top prospect was LHP Justus Sheffield (season review), who pitched well with Triple-A Scranton this season and struggled during his brief MLB cameo. The Yankees cashed him in as a trade chip last month to land James Paxton, who is essentially what we all hoped Sheffield would one day become. Sheffield still has work to do with his command and that made it unlikely he would contribute to the Yankees as a starter in a significant way in 2019. It also made it easier for the win now Yankees to trade him.

With Sheffield traded the new top prospect in the organization is OF Estevan Florial and almost by default too. All those graduations and trades the last two years have thinned the farm system considerably. That is the cost of doing business. You can either have a great farm system or a great big league team. Having both at the same time is damn near impossible nowadays with the draft and international free agency spending restrictions. I will happily live with a thinned out farm system while the Yankees field a 100-win team in the Bronx.

Anyway, Florial had a difficult season in 2018. He started the year with High-A Tampa, hit .246/.353/.343 (107 wRC+) with one home run in his first 36 games, then went down with wrist surgery. Hamate bone removal sidelined him for seven weeks. Florial wrecked the rookie Gulf Coast League during his rehab assignment (.548/.600/1.000 in nine games), then managed a .263/.355/.375 (112 wRC+) line with two homers in his final 39 games with Tampa. Florial hit a weak .178/.294/.260 in 21 Arizona Fall League games after the season.

The bad news? Well, pretty much all of it. Florial needed wrist surgery and he didn’t perform all that well this season, though it is entirely possible (if not likely) the wrist injury contributed to that. He could’ve been (likely was) playing hurt before surgery, and it usually takes some time to get back to normal after wrist surgery, so yeah. The good news? Florial’s contact numbers improved:

2017 in Low-A: 31.9% strikeouts and 15.2% swings and misses
2018 in High-A: 25.7% strikeouts and 13.1% swings and misses

Florial also improved his walk rate as well, going from 10.5% walks in 2017 to 13.0% walks in 2018, but that doesn’t do much for me. Minor league walk rates are fickle, especially in Single-A ball, where most pitchers are control-challenged. Moving up a level and shaving more than six percentage points off your strikeout rate is not nothing though. Contact is Florial’s biggest weakness — he is a four-tool player and the one tool he lacks is the hit tool, and that is a tantalizing profile with a high bust rate — and hopefully those contact gains this year are real.

The Breakout Prospects

King. (Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)

It was a good year for pitching prospects in the farm system. The Yankees don’t have a future ace in the system — there are only a handful of those guys in the minors — but they are loaded with potential starters and depth arms, among them RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (season review). Many of those pitching prospects took a step forward this season and cemented themselves as legitimate big league prospects who may not be more than a year or two away from the show.

Statistically, the biggest breakout prospect in the system this year was RHP Mike King, who came over from the Marlins in last winter’s Caleb Smith/Garrett Cooper roster shuffle trade. King rose three levels this season and finished the year with Triple-A Scranton, posting a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in a whopping 161.1 innings. King is a fastball command guy whose secondary stuff is good but not great, so he’s a stats before scouting report prospect. Still, have that much success and reach Triple-A, and you’re on the big league radar.

To me, the biggest breakout prospect in the farm system this year was RHP Deivi Garcia. The 19-year-old came into the season as a classic live arm/bad control prospect and suddenly he started throwing strikes. In 14 starts and 74 innings, mostly in Single-A but also one Double-A spot start, Garcia pitched to a 2.55 ERA (2.60 FIP) with 35.5% strikeouts and 6.8% walks. That is the fifth highest strikeout rate and fourth highest K-BB% rate among the 902 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings in the minors this year, and the best marks among teenagers.

Garcia is not the biggest guy at 5-foot-10 and 163 lbs., though he still has room to grow, and even if he can’t handle a starter’s workload long-term, his fastball/curveball combination is plenty good enough for the bullpen. He’s a high spin rate guy — the curveball has reportedly been clocked at 3,000+ rpm and that is super duper elite — and his changeup is better than you’d think. Garcia figuring out how to throw strikes this season is really exciting. This was his breakout year in the organization. Next season might be his breakout year on the global prospect map.

One of my favorite prospects in the system is RHP Roansy Contreras, a just turned 19-year-old kid who more than held his own when pushed to Low-A Charleston late in the season. Contreras had a 2.42 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 24.0% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 12 starts and 63.1 innings this season, mostly with the RiverDogs but also some with Short Season Staten Island. A teenager with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and command and pitching know-how deserves more prospect love. Roansy has a chance to be awfully good.

RHP Trevor Stephan and RHP Garrett Whitlock, two 2017 draftees, carved up Single-A hitters this summer and reached Double-A. Stephan had a 3.69 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 7.3% walks in 124.1 total innings this year. He’s a stuff guy with mid-90s gas and a hard slider. Whitlock is more of a pitchability guy with four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, changeup). He had a 1.86 ERA (3.01 FIP) with 24.9% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 120.2 innings this year. King and Whitlock had the second lowest and fourth lowest ERAs, respectively, among the 510 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in the minors this year.

Thanks to some mechanical tweaks IF Brandon Wagner swatted 21 home runs this season after hitting 19 total from 2015-17. His ground ball rates the last four years: 51.4%, 46.5%, 45.5%, 35.6%. Hmmm. Wagner was far better with High-A Tampa (.270/.376/.510 and 154 wRC+) than Double-A Trenton (.262/.290/.346 and 116 wRC+) this year, but he’s a left-handed hitter with some thump who can play first, third, and a little second. The Yankees rolled the dice and left him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft, which I don’t think is a big deal. Even if he gets picked, he’ll probably come back. I’m curious to see whether the power and air ball tendencies stick this year.

The International Arrivals

The Yankees spent a lot of money during the 2017-18 international signing period — they had some cash to spend after getting spurned by Shohei Ohtani — and they brought many of those 2017-18 international signees stateside this past season. Usually these kids spend a year cutting their teeth in the Dominican Summer League, even the high-profile ones, but not this year. The Yankees had many of them make their pro debuts in the rookie Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. That’s quite a jump.

OF Everson Pereira received a $1.5M bonus last July and the Yankees sent him right to Rookie Pulaski, where he hit .263/.322/.389 (88 wRC+) with three homers and a 32.8% strikeout rate in 41 games. The numbers are not good, obviously, but he was essentially a high school junior playing against college kids fresh out of the draft. “He doesn’t have any 70- or 80-grade tools, but some scouts were confident enough to put future plus grades on his hit, run and raw power already. They also saw a (plus) defender in center field,” said a recent Baseball America scouting report. Periera may be a year way from top 100 prospect status.

The Yankees gave OF Antonio Cabello a $1.35M bonus with their leftover Ohtani money and they immediately moved him from catcher to center field. He’s a very good runner and a good athlete, and he was rough behind the plate defensively, so it made sense to move him to center. He can be an asset out there and the bat will be ready long before his defense at catcher. Cabello hit .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) with five homers, a 20.8% strikeout rate, and a 14.8% walk rate in 46 GCL games, and his hitting acumen has drawn Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto comparisons. Huh. Cabello dislocated his non-throwing shoulder diving for a ball late in the season and needed surgery, but he’s expected back early next year. Bummer, but the tools are incredibly exciting.

OF Raimfer Salinas received $1.85M in leftover Ohtani money last year and he’s more tooled up than Cabello. He’s a standout defensive center fielder with excellent bat speed and power potential from the right side. Salinas played only eleven GCL games this year because he damaged a finger ligament on a slide, but he’ll be ready to go next year. 2B Ezequiel Duran signed for a mere $10,000 last July and he stunk with Pulaski this year, hitting .201/.251/.311 (48 wRC+) with a 27.7% strikeout rate in 53 games, but he’s an exit velocity monster who’s been praised for his innate hitting ability. Duran wouldn’t be the first guy to figure it out after a poor pro debut.

OF Anthony Garcia ($500,000 bonus) is built like a tank (6-foot-5 and 204 lbs.) and he led the GCL with ten homers in only 44 games this summer. He also struck out in 40.6% (!) of his plate appearances, but a switch-hitter with this kind of power? That’s worth a $500,000 roll of the dice all day, every day. SS Roberto Chirinos ($900,000) is a slick-fielding shortstop with good bat-to-ball skills. He got the bat knocked out of his hands a bit in the GCL though (.238/.289/.337 and 79 wRC+). Pereira and Salinas are 17. Cabello, Garcia, and Chirinos all recently turned 18. Duran is 19. These dudes are the next wave of top prospects, especially Pereira, Cabello, and Salinas.

The Trade Chips

The Yankees had an active trade deadline this year and, more recently, they used Sheffield as the headliner in the Paxton trade. Also sent to Seattle were RHP Erik Swanson and OF Dom Thompson-Williams. Swanson had a 3.86 ERA (3.64 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in 72.1 Triple-A innings this year and he has a classic back-end starter profile as a fastball/slider/changeup guy. Thompson-Williams became a launch angle guy this year and hit .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with 22 homers in 100 Single-A games. He hit six homers from 2016-17. Swanson’s a nice depth arm. I’m curious to see how the launch angle thing works for Thompson-Williams in Double-A this year. Both guys are nice prospects who were expendable to the Yankees.

At the actual trade deadline, the Yankees shipped three pitching prospects to the Orioles for Zach Britton: RHP Cody Carroll, LHP Josh Rogers, and RHP Dillon Tate (season reviews). Tate is easily the best prospect of the three and he still has work to do to refine his command. He had a 3.38 ERA (3.78 FIP) before the trade and a 5.75 ERA (4.14 FIP) after the trade, all in the Double-A Eastern League. Being a pitcher in need of development in the Orioles system is a bad place to be. Poor Dillon. OF Billy McKinney (season review) was sent to the Blue Jays in the J.A. Happ trade along with Brandon Drury. He hit .226/.299/.495 (120 wRC+) with Triple-A Scranton before the trade while repeating the level. Eh.

In late August the Yankees used IF Abi Avelino and RHP Juan De Paula to get Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. Avelino bounced between Double-A and Triple-A for the second straight season and hit .287/.333/.446 (117 wRC+) with 15 homers in 123 games before the trade, which represents the best season of his career. Avelino is a classic utility type who went 3-for-11 (.273) as a September call-up with San Francisco. De Paula had a 1.71 ERA (3.46 FIP) with 23.4% strikeouts in 47.1 innings before the trade. He repeated Short Season Staten Island as a 21-year-old, which was kinda weird to me. I get the feeling the Yankees were down on the kid, which probably led to the trade.

The Yankees turned longtime organizational arm LHP Caleb Frare into international bonus money in a trade with the White Sox in July. The 25-year-old had a 0.81 ERA (2.23 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 8.6% walks in 44.2 relief innings, almost all at Double-A before the trade, then he struck out nine in seven innings as a September call-up with Chicago. Good for him. Oft-injured RHP Drew Finley went to the Dodgers for Tim Locastro a few weeks ago. Finley’s father works in Los Angeles’ front office, so the trade is something of a homecoming for him.

Aside from Tate, the best prospect the Yankees traded at the deadline this year is little known RHP Luis Rijo. He went to the Twins in the Lance Lynn trade with Tyler Austin. The 20-year-old had a 2.77 ERA (2.50 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 39 innings before the trade and a 1.27 ERA (3.85 FIP) with 20.5% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in 21.1 innings after the trade, all in short season leagues. Rijo is a fastball/curveball/changeup guy and Baseball America recently said “his tremendous feel for locating the baseball should give him a chance to become a backend starter.” Having a multitude of Luis Rijos in the system to use as trade deadline fodder is an underrated strength of the farm system. The Yankees are loaded with these guys.

The Busted Prospects

“Busted” is probably too harsh here, but, as always, several prospects in the system had tough 2018 seasons. There are always going to be injuries and poor performances. That’s baseball. RHP Freicer Perez struggled in six starts with High-A Tampa (21 runs and 19 walks in 25 innings) before having season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder. The good news is his rotator cuff and labrum (and capsule) were not damaged. The bad news is 2018 was a lost season for Perez, one of the better pitching prospects in the system.

RHP Albert Abreu, the best right-handed pitching prospect in the system coming into the season, missed more time with elbow problems and posted a 5.20 ERA (4.75 FIP) with 22.7% strikeouts and 9.8% walks in 72.2 innings at mostly High-A. Abreu has really good stuff — it’s an upper-90s fastball with a knockout curveball — but he’s thrown only 126 innings in two years since coming over in the Brian McCann trade, and we’ve yet to see him truly dominant for an extended period of time. Abreu has ability but he’s just kinda spinning his wheels right now.

RHP Luis Medina stayed healthy all season but lordy was it bad. The 19-year-old threw 36 innings with Rookie Pulaski and pitched to a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) with 25.5% strikeouts and 25.0% walks. That is 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. Yuuup. Medina’s stuff is electric — it’s a Dellin Betances caliber fastball and breaking ball — and he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization. But the poor kid has no idea where the ball is going right now. Like Dellin, he’s gonna be a long-term project.

The two best middle infield prospects in the organization, SS Thairo Estrada and SS Kyle Holder, had brutal seasons. Estrada got shot during a robbery in January and also battled wrist and back trouble during the season. He was limited to 18 regular season games and had the bullet removed from his hip in June. Thairo did heal up in time to play in the Arizona Fall League. Holder fractured a vertebrae in Spring Training and missed two months, and then missed three weeks with a concussion later in the season. He also went home for two weeks at midseason after his brother passed away. Holder played 48 games this year.

3B Dermis Garcia continued to flash big power (15 homers in 88 Low-A games) and big swing-and-miss issues (30.6% strikeouts), and the Yankees had him throw some bullpen sessions to see how he looked on the mound. Dermis never did appear in a game as a pitcher though. SS Hoy Jun Park had a much better season that you may realize — he hit .258/.387/.349 (122 wRC+) with 18 steals and nearly as many walks (16.2%) as strikeouts (16.4%) in 103 High-A games — but the Yankees are still waiting for the $1.2M bonus kid to take that big step forward developmentally.

RHP Chance Adams (season review) underwhelmed while repeating Triple-A (4.78 ERA and 4.87 FIP) and is at something of a career crossroads. Early next season might be his last chance to prove he can hack it as a starter. The Yankees have kept him at arm’s length thus far — his lone big league start was an emergency spot start when Happ went down with hand, foot, and mouth disease. RHP Domingo Acevedo (season review) again battled injuries and was limited to 69.1 innings.

Other Notable Prospects

Almost exactly one year to the day after being selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, RHP Clarke Schmidt completed his Tommy John surgery rehab and made his pro debut. He managed a 3.09 ERA (2.61 FIP) with 33.0% strikeouts and 6.6% walks in 23.1 closely monitored innings in his return, and by all accounts his stuff looked pretty good. Like his pre-Tommy John surgery stuff, basically. Schmidt’s season came to an end in late August with what has been reported as a non-arm injury. Not sure what’s going on there.

RHP Matt Sauer, last year’s second round pick, had a weird season with Short Season Staten Island, statistically. He threw more strikes than I expected (6.4% walks) and missed way fewer bats than I expected (15.9% strikeouts and 7.1% swings and misses). The Yankees helped Sauer improve his delivery and tempo and it’s possible this year’s statistical weirdness can be attributed to him adjusting to his new mechanics. I dunno. We’ll see what happens next year.

RHP Nick Green is one of my favorite prospects in the system. I find him fascinating. He has this funky cutter/sinker hybrid fastball that helped him lead the minors with a 66.4% ground ball rate (min. 130 IP) by nearly five percentage points this season. Green doesn’t have much else to work with aside from the, uh, cut-sinker (?), but if you’re only going to have one pitch, a dominant ground ball (cut-)sinker is a good pitch to have. Green threw 132.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (4.28 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.1% walks this season, with most of that coming with High-A Tampa.

Easy to overlook in the pitching ranks is RHP Nick Nelson, who quietly sits in the mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball and features a hammer power curveball. This season he threw 121.1 innings, mostly at High-A Tampa, with a 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) and high walk (12.1%) and strikeout (27.5%) rates. Nelson had the 37th most strikeouts (144) and also the 27th most walks (63) in the minors this year. I’m not sure the control or third pitch will ever be there for him to start long-term. I sure am interested to see what Nelson can do in short one-inning relief bursts though.

OF Isiah Gilliam might belong in the “Busted Prospects” section — again, “busted” may be too harsh — after hitting .256/.313/.397 (103 wRC+) with 13 homers in 125 High-A games this year. He had a 137 wRC+ with 21.7% strikeouts and 10.8% walks in Low-A last season. This season it was a 103 wRC+ with 29.0% strikeouts and 6.9% walks in High-A. SS Diego Castillo didn’t hit much with High-A Tampa (.260/.307/.324 and 83 wRC+) but he makes a ton of contact (9.1% strikeouts and 6.1% swings and misses) and can play the hell out of shortstop. I hope the bat catches up to the glove soon.

RHP Luis Gil and RHP Juan Then are on opposite ends of the pitching prospect spectrum in terms of style. Gil is a straight grip it and rip it guy who touched 101 mph this season and registers strong spin rates on his curveball. The 20-year-old struck out 68 batters in 46 short season innings this year. He also walked 31. Then, 18, already has three good pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and a plan on the mound. The kid is 6-foot-1 and 155 lbs. right now and the Yankees are hoping his low-90s heater becomes a mid-to-upper-90s heater as he matures. Then had a 2.70 ERA (3.22 FIP) with 21.5% strikeouts and 5.6% walks in 50 GCL innings in 2018.

RHP Stephen Tarpley (season review) led the minors with a 68.1% ground ball rate (min. 65 IP) this season and earned himself both a September call-up and a spot on the ALDS roster. RHP Joe Harvey was untouchable as Triple-A Scranton’s closer this year, pitching to a 1.66 ERA (2.49 FIP) with 28.5% strikeouts and 9.8% walks in 54.1 innings for the RailRiders. The Yankees added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft last month. We’re going to see these two dudes in the big league bullpen next year, even if they’re only shuttle guys.

The 2018 Draft

Last season’s 91-71 record gave the Yankees the 23rd overall pick in the 2018 draft, which they used on C Anthony Seigler (prospect profile). He’s the best prospect the Yankees drafted this year (duh) followed by second rounder C Josh Breaux (prospect profile) and fourth rounder RHP Frank German (prospect profile). Here are my Day One, Day Two, and Day Three draft recaps.

Among the late round picks, RHP Rodney Hutchison (sixth round) created some buzz right before the draft because his fastball ticked up and he showed an improved slider. He had a 1.97 ERA (3.02 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.4%), walk (4.7%), and ground ball (64.4%) rates in 32 innings with Short Season Staten Island in his pro debut. RHP Tanner Myatt (11th round) opened some eyes with his 97-99 mph heater and hard slider after turning pro. He struck out 22 in 18.1 mostly rookie ball innings.

While the high picks like Seigler and Breaux get all the attention and understandably so — my money is on Seigler being the consensus No. 1 prospect in the system at this time next year — the late rounds are where the Yankees have built their farm system depth. Guys like Rogers (11th), Whitlock (18th round), and Carroll (22nd round) were all unheralded Day Three picks in recent years who developed into solid prospects and, in Rogers’ and Carroll’s case, trade chips. A year from now we might be talking about Hutchison and Myatt as the next late round success stories.

The Best of the Rest

The Yankees have more minor leaguers under contract that any other team. That doesn’t necessarily mean they have more prospects. It just means they have more minor leaguers. As J.J. Cooper explained in August, the Yankees have nine minor league affiliates and thus can have roughly 340 players under contract. Most other organizations only have six or seven minor league affiliates, and can carry around 290 contracts. Those extra 50 (!) roster spots mean the Yankees have more innings and at-bats to play with, and more spots for lottery tickets.

Although the farm system isn’t nearly as robust now as it was a year or two ago, the Yankees do still have a pretty deep system, especially in arms. Here are the last few notables worth mentioning as part of our farm system review:

OF Trey Amburgey: Righty hitter and thrower has some pop and authored an underwhelming .258/.300/.418 (97 wRC+) line with Double-A Trenton this year.
SS Oswaldo Cabrera: The tools are all there but the production is not. Cabrera hit .229/.273/.320 (70 wRC+) with a 12.5% strikeout rate with Low-A Charleston this year.
RHP Rony Garcia: Cutter specialist reached High-A at age 20 this year and posted solid strikeout (21.0%) and walk (5.5%) rates in 119 innings. Deivi pulled away as the system’s best Garcia though.
RHP Yoendrys Gomez: Mid-90s fastball and a rainbow curveball produced a 2.08 ERA (3.57 FIP) and 25.8% strikeouts in 47.2 rookie ball innings this summer. Someone to watch.
RHP Nolan Martinez: Finally stayed healthy and threw 61.2 innings with 3.36 ERA (4.19 FIP) this year. He threw 20.2 innings total from 2016-17. Next year will be a big one.
OF Pablo Olivares: Personal favorite hit .322/.391/.442 (142 wRC+) in 70 Single-A games before an unknown injury ended his season in July. That’s too bad.
RHP Glenn Otto: Last year’s fifth rounder showed a dynamite fastball/curveball combination in his two starts before needing season-ending surgery to treat a blood clot in his shoulder.
OF Alex Palma: Built on last year’s breakout with a .299/.348/.459 (132 wRC+) line in 52 High-A games. He suffered a season-ending injury in an outfield collision in July.

I’m looking forward to full seasons of Gomez and Martinez next year and I want to see how Olivares, Otto, and Palma rebound from their injuries. Especially Otto and especially especially Olivares. He’s not a star prospect like the stat line would lead you to believe, but he can do everything well. Just a solid all-around ballplayer. Had he not gotten hurt, the 20-year-old Olivares might’ve finished the season in Double-A and been added to the 40-man roster after the season. Instead, the Yankees are gambling no team will take an injured Single-A outfielder in the Rule 5 Draft.

What’s Next?

As was the case last year, the farm system now is worse than it was in March, and for good reason. The Yankees graduated two high-end prospects to the big leagues in Torres and Andujar, and they used several others in trades, most notably Sheffield and Tate. If the farm system is going to take a hit, you want it to take a hit because guys are graduating and being traded for MLB help, and that’s what happened with the Yankees.

Barring a fire sale — the Yankees might get prospects for Sonny Gray but otherwise they aren’t selling veterans anytime soon — it is awfully tough for the Yankees to build a farm system now. They have back of the first round draft picks (30th overall in 2019) and the draft and international spending restrictions level the playing field. The Yankees added some very exciting international kids (Pereira, Cabello) and new draftees (Seigler) to the system this year. It’ll take a year or two before they develop into foundational prospects, however. Fortunately the farm system has already done its part strengthening the MLB team.