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The best fastball, curveball, slider, cutter, and changeup on the Yankees

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Over the past couple of weeks we’ve started writing about the stats we use. One concept we saw in both current entries, UZR and wOBA, is linear weights. The idea might sound complex, but it is not. The idea is to assign a value to different outcomes and situations, so we can get a truer sense of how baseball players add value. During the 2009 season, FanGraphs introduced pitch type linear weights, which took the actual results of different pitch types, as provided by Baseball Info Solutions, and ran them through linear weight conversions by not only event, but by count. This gives us a decent idea of how a pitcher fared with his arsenal.

Let’s see how each of the Yankees fared. We’ll look at pitchers who spent a decent amount of time on the roster, 40 innings for relievers plus the starters. Then I’ll compare them to the league leaders, both for starters and relievers. These measurements will be on a per 100 pitch basis, as to put it in a rate form rather than counting form. Finally, for the secondary pitches I’ll weed out the short sample size numbers by noting only pitchers who threw the particular pitch at least 10 percent of the time.

Fastball

Starter: CC Sabathia, 0.64
Reliever: Phil Coke, 1.40

Some might be surprised to see Coke atop the list — some might even say it delegitimizes the stat. I believe it, though. It seemed that Coke got into major trouble when he overused his slider. We saw that first hand early in the season when the Twins, namely Morneau and Mauer, lit up Coke’s slider. He came back later in the series to face Morneau, and struck him out using just fastballs. It was certainly his most effective pitch, which probably explains why he had such spotty success. Relievers certainly need that second pitch. Also, for good measure, Phil Hughes’s fastball wasn’t far behind, at 1.22, and it rated higher on a counting basis.

What comes as no surprise is CC Sabathia’s fastball ranking highest among starters. A.J. Burnett is known for his blazing fastball and devastating curve, but in 2009 his fastball didn’t quite measure up. That leaves Joba, Sabathia, and Pettitte, and it’s pretty clear who had the best fastball among that group. Joba, in fact, had a pretty terrible fastball, ranking among the worst for AL starters.

AL leader, starter: Zack Greinke, 1.27
AL leader, reliever: Craig Breslow, 2.65

Credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Slider

Starter: Joba Chamberlain, 1.29
Reliever: Phil Coke, -0.30

It seems Joba has good reason for loving his slider so much, as it appears a damn effective pitch. Overall it was worth 7.5 runs above average, an excellent mark, especially for a guy pitching his first full major league season. He kept shaking off Jorge Posada to get the three fingers, and he kept throwing it with effectiveness. If he can further harness the pitch this year and get his fastball back to 2008 levels, when it was at 0.79 runs above average per 100 pitches, he should have a wildly successful 2010 season.

As for Coke being the top reliever, that’s more a result of so few Yankee relievers using the pitch. David Robertson actually ranked highest, but he threw the pitch just 1.4 percent of the time, so we can discount the performance. Likewise, Burnett led among starters but threw the slider just 0.1 percent of the time. The Yankees bullpen, it appears, is more of a curveball/changeup crew.

AL leader, starter: Zack Greinke, 2.90
AL leader, reliever: Mike Wuertz, 2.75

Credit: AP Photo/Elise Amendola

Curve

Starter: A.J. Burnett, 1.47
Reliever: Al Aceves, 1.74

Though we saw it fall flat on a few occasions this season, Burnett clearly has the best curve on the team, and among the best in the league. His is a power curve, coming in something like a slider as it dips down and away from righties.

Aceves boasts a number of pitches in his arsenal, but none appears as effective as his curve. He’s a nice change of pace in the Yankees bullpen. While they have Robertson, Marte, and Hughes with strong fastballs, Aceves brings it down a tick, mixing high 80s heat with a slew of breaking and off-speed pitches that keep hitters guessing.

AL leader, starter: Tommy Hunter, 2.27
Al leader, reliever: Joakim Soria, 4.86

Credit: AP Photo/Elise Amendola

Change

Starter: CC Sabathia, 3.59
Reliever: Al Aceves, 3.10

Mike already wrote about CC’s changeup and how it devastates righties. So devastating, in fact, that it ranked best in league. Go CC. On the relief front, Aceves proves his versatility by not only ranking highest for curve, but also for changeup. He throws them with similar frequency, keeping hitters off-balance. Again, I love the change of pace he brings to the bullpen.

AL leader, starter: Sabathia
AL leader, reliever: Aceves

Credit: AP Photo/Kevork Djansezian

Cutter

Starter: Andy Pettitte, 2.50
Reliever: Mariano Rivera, 2.03

Neither of these comes as a surprise. Surprisingly, Hughes’s cutter ranked not far behind Mo’s on a rate basis, at 1.98, but clearly didn’t even approach it on a counting basis. Both of Hughes’s fastballs ranked well, with his curveball lagging behind. He probably needs to start throwing it more in 2010, though it appears he favors the four-seamer and cutter much more when pitching out of the bullpen.

Pettitte mixed his pitches well in 2009, going with healthy doses of four-seamers, cutters, curves, and changes. His cutter ranked the best, and his curve provided value as well. Those two pitches, I believe, help compensate for his four-seamer, which sits at 89 mph. Because he can go to the cutter and curve so frequently, he can keep hitters guessing, meaning they can’t jump as quickly on his four-seamer. His cutter, as you can see, ranked just below best in the league among AL starters.

AL leaders, starter: Scott Feldman and Jon Danks, 2.56
Al leader, reliever: Rivera (conveniently ignoring Lance Cormier’s slightly higher per-100-pitches mark, because Mo’s counting stat was far, far higher, and I’m biased and Mo is Mo)

Pettitte photo credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip
Mo photo credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Coke a starter in Detroit? Not likely

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The Curtis Granderson trade hasn’t fully sunk in yet. It still feels like Ajax the Great is still the team’s No. 2 prospect. It feel like we’ll still be wondering if IPK can break camp in the bullpen. But most of all, it feels like Phil Coke will still play a part in relief. It’s part of the odd nature of the off-season. We grow so used to these players over seven months and over 170 games, and in a matter of 20 hours everything changes.

Coke’s inclusion in the Granderson trade seemed like a token gesture. A “yeah we’re clearly getting the better player, so here’s a major league bullpen arm to make you feel better about yourself” throw-in. He’ll help them out, for sure, especially with a weak bullpen that will lose its top two pitchers. But will he really add more than a half win above replacement? Judging from his 2008, I doubt it. But the Tigers will want to get the greatest possible value from him.

Might that be in the rotation? Coke hasn’t pitched in that role since July 25, 2008, but it appears the Tigers might see if he can stick in that role. “There is a chance, by all means,” said GM Dave Dombrowski of Coke’s chances to be a starter. “I’d not be surprised if he had that opportunity.” Chris from iYankees thinks that it could add immense value to Detroit in the trade. “If Coke becomes a decent left-handed starter for the Tigers behind current ace Justin Verlander and future ace Max Scherzer, then the trade package they received earlier this week will be viewed as an even more valuable haul.” Problem is, it almost certainly won’t happen.

During the Winter Meetings I talked to Chad Jennings about Coke. He loved what he saw in relief in late 2008, but recalled an instance earlier in the year where Coke failed horribly as a starter. That was on June 3, when he allowed eight hits over three innings. Clearly, no one should judge a starter based on one start, but it’s just another bit of evidence in a long string suggest that Coke’s optimal place is in the bullpen.

Never one of the Yankees big-time prospects, Coke ambled around the minors, finally finding success in A+ ball in 2006, and continuing it the next year. By age 25, with Trenton, he definitely hit a groove, and maybe that was a product of his maturing a bit late. But, by most accounts, he just doesn’t have the stuff to be a major league starter. Even out of the bullpen in 2009, we saw his weaknesses exposed. His slider is his secondary pitch, and I hate to think what major league hitters would do to a third pitch.

I personally liked Phil Coke and thought that he was a good option out of the pen at certain points in the season. There were stretches of games where he’d throw 75, 80 percent strikes and retire everyone he faced. But there were also stretches where he hung his slider and allowed a ton of homers. I can’t imagine him improving on that situation in the rotation. Starters are more valuable than relievers, and teams should explore rotation options for their best pitchers. I just don’t think it’s a realistic possibility for Coke.

Open Thread: KLaw on the Granderson trade

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There are still some minor details left to hammer out, but the Yanks, D-Backs, and Tigers have all agreed on the framework of a three-team trade that will send Curtis Granderson to the Bronx, Edwin Jackson to the desert, and various prospects to MoTown. From the Yanks perspective, it’s basically a swap of Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke for Granderson, the rest is just details.

As always, Keith Law checks in with his take at the four-letter. It’s subscriber only, but I’ll quote the Yankee-relevant parts:

The Yankees also come out ahead simply because they haven’t given up much of value, and in exchange they get an above-average everyday centerfielder. Curtis Granderson is a good defensive centerfielder who hits right-handers well, is a plus runner and gets unanimous raves for his personality. In two of the last three years, however, he hasn’t cracked a .500 OPS against left-handed pitchers and his pitch recognition problems against southpaws look like they’ll be very hard to correct, meaning that the Yankees need to consider a right-handed-hitting centerfielder to caddy for him against at least good left-handed starters. That (hypothetical) two-headed monster would be among the better centerfield solutions in the American League. It’s good they got that player for Jackson, who right now projects as more of an average everyday centerfielder; Coke, a middle reliever who had lost Joe Girardi’s trust anyway; and Ian Kennedy, who at the very least wasn’t going to crack the Yankees’ rotation again.

Should be noted: Granderson is due $25.75 million over the next three years, including the 2013 buyout.

As a prospect guy, it’s tough to see Jackson and Kennedy go, but it’s a move the Yanks really couldn’t pass up. Jackson isn’t a finished product, and the Yanks essentially swapped him for a guy that represents his best case scenario in terms of value. It would have been real nice to have Kennedy around for depth next year, but that’s the cost of doing business. Coke? Easily replaceable.

By no means is Granderson perfect. He certainly has his flaws, especially against lefties, but he’s a monumental upgrade over the Yanks’ incumbent centerfield tandem. This shouldn’t preclude the Yanks from seeking out a leftfielder, because much of Granderson’s value stems from his production at a premium position. Here’s what Joe wrote about the move at YES Network.

Anyway, here’s your open thread for the night. The Isles are in action, and The Quest For 1-81 continues in Chicago. Anything goes, so have at it.

Yankees set to acquire Curtis Granderson, pending physicals

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The rumor started late last night and developed throughout the day. Now it’s close to official: the Yankees have agreed to acquire centerfielder Curtis Granderson from the Tigers in a three team trade. Here’s the breakdown of who will get what:

To Yankees: CF Curtis Granderson

To Tigers: LHP Phil Coke, CF Austin Jackson, RHP Max Scherzer, LHP Dan Schlereth

To D-Backs: RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Ian Kennedy,

Joel Sherman says that removing lefty reliever Mike Dunn was a key for the Yankees, who now have some leverage to use against free agent Johnny Damon. Sherman adds that the trade may not be finalized today because “minor details, mainly medicals, take time, must be worked thru.”

In Granderson, the Yankees will get a 28-year-old centerfielder coming off a 30 homerun, 20 steal season. However, he can’t hit lefthanded pitching at all (.210-.270-.344), and his once superb defense is now just slightly above average. The Yanks also pick up some major cost certainty, as Granderson is signed through 2012 for a total of $25.75M, plus there’s an option for 2013. He’s also familiar with Derek Jeter, having played with him during the WBC.

To get Granderson, the Bombers gave up their top prospect coming into 2009 in Austin Jackson,  who hit .300-.354-.405 in Triple-A this year. Ian Kennedy’s last act as a Yankee will be pitching a scoreless 8th inning in a meaningless late season game against the Angels, while Phil Coke will be remembered as the guy that gave up two homers in one World Series inning. The move makes a dent in the Yanks’ pitching depth, however the Yanks can make up for some it with the player they take first overall in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft.

Dave Cameron at FanGraphs calls the deal “almost too good to be true” for the Yanks.

Yanks, D-Backs, Tigers talking blockbuster

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Updated 12:15 a.m.: It looks like Monday was a busier day for the Yankees than we thought. According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, they discussed a three-way trade with the Tigers and Diamondbacks that would have sent Curtis Granderson to New York and Edwin Jackson to Arizona. Talks, however, reached an impasse. The D-Backs are pushing hard, but the deal “was rejected by at least one of the other two teams.”

I originally thought that team to be the Yankees, and Joel Sherman confirmed as much a few minutes ago. The Yanks thought the costs were too high, and the Tigers were lukewarm on their returns as well. Although the three-way talks are dead, the Yankees are still very much interested in Granderson, not least because their interest could drive Johnny Damon’s price down.

So what then were the costs to this proposed deal? The Yankees would have lost Ian Kennedy, Mike Dunn, Phil Coke, and Austin Jackson in the trade and gotten back Granderson and “one or two prospects from the Diamondbacks.” The Diamondbacks would have sent the Tigers Matt Scherzer and another prospect or two for Edwin Jackson. So, even though they’d be losing two to four prospects in the deal, the Diamondbacks were the ones pushing for this. It made the situation a bit more interesting.

We can forget about Dunn and Coke, because they’re not the ones who were holding up this deal. I doubt Kennedy was, either. If the Yanks are the stalling party, it’s likely over Austin Jackson. He’s still developing, and his lack of power in 2009 is concerning, but he’s still a good prospect, probably the second best in the Yankees system. The Yankees are reluctant to deal him, and for good reason. If that power tool comes around, he could be a very good MLB center fielder.

Granderson is attractive for a number of reasons, as I outlined in this post. He’s trended downward since his breakout 2007 season, but as with Nick Swisher’s 2008, 2009 could have just been a bad season for Granderson. As I noted, he hit way, way more fly balls than normal, which led to a lower BABIP and, accordingly, batting average. I can definitely see Granderson recovering to his 2008 form, which would be great news for the Yankees. He could instantly replace Johnny Damon in the outfield and in the two-hole.

Getting two prospects back from the Diamondbacks would have helped soften the blow of losing Jackson, but we still don’t know which prospects were under discussion. Without mentioning prospects, the Diamondbacks are getting both Kennedy and Edwin Jackson and giving up only Scherzer. Maybe both the Tigers and the Yanks get a B-prospect from the D-Backs. So is Granderson and a B-prospect worth Austin Jackson?

As with most rumors, I discussed this one with both Ben and Mike for a while before even starting to write. All three of us are on the fence. If the Yanks pulled the trigger, we’d welcome the new center fielder. If they didn’t, we’d maintain hope for Jackson. It’s nice not to be disappointed either way. But, gun to my head, I do the trade. I have faith that Granderson can recover, and while I do want to see Austin Jackson grow into his pinstripes, there are some situations where trading prospects makes sense. I can see this being one of those situations.

Yanks walk off to seventh straight win

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The standings might say that these are meaningless games, but the Yankees aren’t acting like it. They started to surge last week by taking two of three from the Angels in Anaheim and haven’t let off the accelerator, even after clinching everything. Early last night it looked as if they’d let up a bit, but they mounted yet another late-inning comeback to steal a win from the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals staged the first rally, in the top of the seventh, though it had more to do with Phil Coke than the Kansas City offense. He came with a man on first and one out, to face Alex Gordon, Josh Anderson, and Mitch Maier, three weak-hitting lefties. For Coke, a guy who’s faced tight situations in meaningful games, it should have been a cakewalk. It was anything but.

Alex Gordon bunted the first pitch back to Coke, but the latter hung on too long and allowed Gordon to reach and Mark Teahen to reach second. Anderson handed Coke instant atonement with a bouncer right to him, but Coke again muffed the play, this time throwing way behind Derek Jeter and into center. Teahen scored and the Royals had runners on second and third with one out.

The lead lost, Coke got ahead of Maier 0-2, and again got a grounder right back to him. Gordon had already broken for home, but Coke paid no mind. He fired over to first as if there were two outs. The announcers couldn’t believe it, the crowd couldn’t believe it, and the replay showed that Molina couldn’t believe it. Coke had three consecutive plays and managed to botch each one. What should have been an easy appearance turned into a two-run deficit.

Had the game any real meaning, maybe Coke wouldn’t have even been in. Girardi pulled A.J. Burnett after recording the first out of the seventh and having thrown 108 pitches. It was one of A.J.’s better performances. He allowed six baserunners, but kept the Royals at bay with his favorite weapon, the curveball. It helped him strike out eight. With 6.1 innings of one-run ball, three walks, three hits, and eight strikeouts, I’d say Burnett had himself a fine game.

The Yankees used four pitchers last night, and Coke was the standout disappointment. Dave Robertson came out for the eighth and retired the first two batters he faced, including one strikeout, before walking the third batter. That was apparently his limit, as Girardi went with Bruney to finish things off. He allowed a hit and walked a guy, but also fanned two Royals and didn’t allow a run to score. He also had the benefit of Jerry Hairston, who turned a pop up bunt into a double play, teaching rookie Josh Anderson a lesson that will stick with him.

The story of the ninth inning dates back to Sunday. Trey Hillman’s team was up 4-1 against the Twins, and Zack Greinke was in line for the win. Instead of taking a chance with one of his unpredictable setup men, Hillman went to closer Joakim Soria for two. It paid off, but after 46 pitches Soria apparently needed a few days off. He surely wasn’t available last night, given Hillman’s decisions.

Taking the hill to preserve the one-run lead was Kyle Farnsworth. Signed to replace Tom Gordon in 2006, Farnsworth was a disaster from the start. Only when he hit a streak of semi-reliability were the Yanks able to deal him, in a contract swap with the Tigers for Pudge Rodriguez. Both players were horrible to finish out the year, but that didn’t stop Royals GM Dayton Moore from handing Farnsworth a two-year, $9 million contract. Had he waited, he could have had Fanrnsworth for a song later that winter.

With one out in the ninth, Frankie Cervelli bounced one back up the middle. It was out of Farnsworth’s reach, and Alberto Callaspo couldn’t get a handle on it. Eric Hinske pinch hit for Ramiro Pena, and it looked like he wanted the walk-off right there, putting his home run swing on the first pitch but missing. As Farnsworth is apt to do, he missed with the next two pitches and then gave Hinske something he could hit. The ball landed in right, and Cervelli hustled to third. The walk-off was already in the air.

For a guy who can’t hit with runners in scoring position, Robinson Cano sure has driven in a lot of runs lately. After a grand slam last night he got another chance in a tight spot — tight, at least, in the context of this one game. He unloaded on a 3-0 pitch, but just missed. It was deep enough to score Cervelli and tie the game, though. Blown save, Farnsworth.

The last thing the team wanted last night was to go into extra innings. Everything’s clinched. They’d already used a ton of their bench players. I’m sure the regulars just wanted to get on with it. Eric Hinske must have felt that vibe. Otherwise, why would he have have tried to steal second with two outs? Not only did he make it, but he also scampered into third on an errant throw.

The Royals decided they’d rather face Juan Miranda than Johnny Damon, but at that point it didn’t seem to matter. The Yanks were walking off with that win one way or another. Miranda hit a grounder back to Farnsworth, but it was just hard enough to bounce off the pitcher’s shins and into foul territory. The Yanks swarmed from the dugout just as Miranda touched first, and the Yankees had recorded their 15th walk-off victory.

That was a lot of writing for a meaningless game, eh? Well, sometimes big things happen in the least likely games. Coke’s blunders, A.J.’s solid performance, the late-inning heroics. It added up to another quality game in a time when they’re supposed to be boring. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 Yankees: the team that can make even the most drab game a thriller.

What to make of Phil Coke

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What good is a lefty in the pen if he’s vulnerable to lefties? Chris Davis’s homer yesterday was the sixth Phil Coke has allowed to fellow lefties, calling his effectiveness into question. And with good reason. He’s had stretches of effectiveness, but there have been times when he’s just plain bad. Unfortunately, many of those bad times come against left-handed hitters, the very ones he’s most often charged with retiring.

This has left many wondering whether Coke is fit for duty in the Yankees bullpen. After yesterday’s game he has a 5.05 ERA, up from 3.15 on July 3. Clearly he’s on the downswing, right? Well, maybe not. While Coke isn’t nearly as good as he was earlier in the season, he still might have something to offer the Yanks.

Phil Coke had a great run in June and July. In 22.1 innings, he allowed just seven runs, striking out 22 against five walks. Opponents managed just a .508 OPS against him, and his GB/FB ratio was 1.85. After a rocky start to the season, it looked like he had settled into his bullpen role, which was mostly relegated to the seventh inning and lefties in the eighth.

(Of those seven runs he allowed in those two months, four came in one game, against the Angels when seemingly none Yankees managed to pitch well. So outside of one game, he was even more remarkable.)

Unfortunately, August started off quite poorly for Coke, as he allowed six runs while recording just one out on August 1 against the White Sox. That pumped up his ERA from 3.77 to 4.98, further showing why ERA is a poor indicator for a reliever’s effectiveness. He blew one game, which was pretty much blown in the first place, but had his ERA climb by more than a run. That should tell you all you need to know.

Then, of course, came the home run to Victor Martinez, which left a sour taste in our mouths. The Yanks came back to win that game, but that doesn’t erase Coke’s troubles. And then again yesterday, he gave up that three-run jack to Davis, putting a 3-2 game pretty much out of reach.

For the most part, Coke hasn’t been bad. He’s had a number of outings in which he has allowed multiple runs, which is never a good thing. He also has three blown saves, five if you count the two he recently blew that the Yanks came back to win. But he’s also had stretches where he pumps strikes and gets the Yanks through the later innings. He’s also done a decent job of keeping opponents off base — .223 batting average against and a .290 on-base against.

The problem with Coke this year is leaving sluggable balls over the plate. That is evidenced by his slugging against, .418, which is pretty bad considering the .223 average opponents have off him, and his HR/9, 1.6. We know Coke can pitch well. He did it for two straight months, minus one blip. He’s had some struggles lately, but for all we know that could be related to his new role, a reliever (he was a starter all of his career prior to last year), and a new setting, the majors. With rosters expanding, the Yanks can afford to give him time to settle down. Given the way he pitched earlier this year, he could be an asset in the playoffs.