River Avenue Blues

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What if there was a Division Series MVP?

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Two-time ALDS MVP Bernie Williams (Getty Images)

You’ve likely come to this fine website for astute baseball analysis, but allow me a modicum of whimsy.

I recently found out that in Alex Rodriguez’s original 10-year deal with the Rangers, there was a standard awards clause, giving out bonuses if he achieved various results. This awards clause was curious, however, as it included a bonus for Division Series MVP.

There is no Division Series MVP. There has never been a Division Series MVP. There is no good reason for a Division Series MVP … but what if MLB gave it out anyway?

Would A-Rod have won one or two ALDS MVPs with the Yankees? Almost assuredly. Therefore, I went back through all of the Yankees’ ALDS victories and determined the rightful winner of this non-existent award. First up, 1996.

1996 ALDS MVP: Bernie Williams

The King of the Division Series, Bernie Williams caught fire in the 1996 ALDS. He posted the highest WPA of any non-reliever and went 7-for-15 with three home runs. When you add further context, it simply gets better.

Bernie singled and scored the game-tying run in the eighth inning of Game 2 as the Yankees trailed the series. He homered in the first inning of Game 3 before tying it late with a sacrifice fly. Finally, he tied and capped the clincher with his final homer of the series. Enough said!

1998 ALDS MVP: Shane Spencer

Shane Spencer should not get this award. He was going to be a replacement player in 1995 and, in more relevant arguments, only played two games in this series.

But he hit two dingers!

The Yankees gave up just one run over three games with Davids Wells and Cone alongside Andy Pettitte dominating. However, I’m not going to give this to three people at once. I’m not going to split this award either. This has to go to one player and Spencer is it.

Spencer homered to put the Yanks ahead in Game 2 before singling and scoring two innings later. In Game 3, his three-run homer in the sixth inning put the game, and thus the series, out of reach. Normally, this isn’t enough for a series MVP, but it’s enough here.

1999 ALDS MVP: Royce Clayton

Royce Clayton didn’t play for the Yankees. What? I’ll explain.

This is the type of series why this award does not exist. The Yankees won the series in a rout with a 14-1 lead in aggregate and only one semi-interesting game in the middle.

I just couldn’t bring myself to award any particular Yankee. Derek Jeter went 5-for-11 with a double, triple and two walks. Mariano Rivera had two saves and three innings pitched. Bernie had six RBI and went 4-for-11 after pouring it on late in a blowout Game 1.

So I’m giving it to Clayton, the Rangers’ shortstop. He went 0-for-10 in the series, distinguishing himself among the Rangers’ hitters, who only mustered 14 hits and a .152/.228/.207 collective batting line. Yuck.

2000 ALDS MVP: Mariano Rivera

You could give Rivera about four of these awards (1996, 1998-2000, 2003). He has to get at least one, in my award-giving opinion, and this was his most impactful series.

Rivera saved all three wins in the 2000 ALDS — which went the distance — and threw five important innings along the way. He gave up just two hits, walked no one and struck out two Athletics.

Though all three of his saves came in multi-run victories, Rivera entered Games 2, 3 and 5 with the tying run at the plate and deftly navigated each situation. Game 5 was essentially a six-run first inning followed by scratching and clawing to get to Rivera. Let’s call this one a unanimous selection.

2001 ALDS MVP: Derek Jeter

Jorge Posada has been overlooked for his entire career. Perhaps not as much as Williams recently as Posada made the “Core Four” but based on his Hall of Fame vote totals and by playing next to Rivera and Jeter, he didn’t get the credit he deserved.

And by the numbers, he should be the 2001 ALDS MVP. He went 8-for-18, hit the homer for the lone run of the pivotal Game 3 to turnaround the series. He compiled a 1.167 OPS.

But the Flip Play happened.

You can’t ignore the play and Jeter would have won easily on that narrative if they’d given out the award back then. Doesn’t hurt that he matched Posada with an 8-for-18 series.

Sorry, Jorge. I tried.

2003 ALDS MVP: Bernie Williams

Going just on raw numbers, Jeter would win again. He went 6-for-14 with four walks, a homer and a 1.198 OPS. However, the homer was meaningless and he already stole the award from Posada.

Outside of a loss in Game 1, this was reminiscent of the 1998 and 99 ALDS with three good starts in a row, but no one of the starters can get the award. Rivera could once again win this, but he’s not going to be the first two-time award winner here.

Therefore, we’re going with Williams, who was at the center of the action in the three wins. He hit a sac fly to put the Yankees up in Game 2 early, scored the go-ahead run and knocked in an insurance run in Game 3 and put the team up to start the knockout rally in Game 4.

2004 ALDS MVP: Alex Rodriguez

The whole point of this exercise was to get the obscenely wealthy Rodriguez his extra $100,000 or so and he gets it right off the bat.

A-Rod essentially wins it for Game 2 alone, as the Yankees knotted up the series in dramatic fashion. He homered in the fifth to put NYY up one before extending the lead with a single in the seventh. After a rare Mariano Rivera meltdown, the game went to extras and the Yankees trailed in the 12th. Don’t worry, Joe Nathan came on for the save and Rodriguez hit a game-tying, ground-rule double and set up the winning run two batters later.

After a quiet Game 3, he went 2-for-4 with two walks in Game 4 and scored the series-clinching run in the 11th inning by doubling off Kyle Lohse, stealing third base and scoring on a wild pitch.

2009 ALDS MVP: Alex Rodriguez

While A-Rod already got his bonus for the 2004 series, the 2009 ALDS was his piece de resistance. It was an undisputed masterpiece. He had two RBI singles in Game 1 to pad the Yankees’ lead en route to 7-2 win. He hit a tying homer in Game 3 to lead another comeback win.

But this is all you really need to know.

Other players had good series then, but no one neared Rodriguez’s peak in this one. This was the best all-time ALDS for a position player.

2010 ALDS MVP: Curtis Granderson

In a three-game series, the MVP comes down to one game, if not one moment. There isn’t enough time for a starting pitcher to go twice, so whoever makes the play or comes through with the key hit would earn it. This is precisely the reason why there’s no ALDS MVP in reality, 2009 A-Rod being a supernova exception.

With two men on and two outs and the Yankees down 3-2 on the road, Curtis Granderson came to the plate against Francisco Liriano, who was 100 pitches into his start. This was a guy coming off a career year facing Granderson, who could barely make contact against lefties.

But Granderson smacked a ball to right-center that carried. And carried. In most parks, it would have left, but it went for a triple to put the Yankees in front. Mark Teixeira hit the game-winning homer an inning later, but Granderson’s shot was the turning point where it came apart for Minnesota.

Tex has a cogent argument for MVP, but I’m handing it to Grandy after he put up better overall numbers, going 5-for-11 with a double, the triple, three RBI and a walk in a precursor to his near-MVP season.

2012 ALDS MVP: CC Sabathia

Raul Ibanez stole the headlines in this series with his two Game 3 homers and his go-ahead single in Game 5. Normally, just those moments would be enough to win the short series MVP.

But CC Sabathia won two games nearly by himself and shut down the Orioles’ hopes of an upset, even with Ibanez’s advantage in WPA (0.90 to 0.84). CC threw 8 2/3rds in Game 1 of a closely-contested matchup and went the distance in Game 5.

Game 5 was likely the last peak CC Sabathia game. He’s had some big playoff moments since, but he hasn’t been the ace or workhorse in the regular season or playoffs after that game. He threw 121 pitches, allowed just six baserunners and held Baltimore to one run, striking out nine. He capped it off by throwing out a runner at first and clinching the series. Well done, big man!

2017 ALDS MVP: Didi Gregorius

There wasn’t a clear statistical victor in this one. Sabathia had a solid Game 5 and underrated Game 2, but he didn’t get the win in either start and wasn’t dominant. Nearly every hitter and reliever had a big moment, but no one stood out. Aroldis Chapman would have been an OK choice if one player didn’t steal the show in Game 5.

And it was Didi Gregorius who stole said show in the winner-take-all finale. His two home runs off Corey Kluber were enough to give the Yankees the series. I still get goosebumps watching this.

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If there was an ALDS MVP, history looks more favorably upon A-Rod, who was often destroyed for his playoff woes. Rivera, Williams and Jeter get their just due for postseason excellence that wrapped into two decades. Meanwhile, one or two hits get Spencer and Gregorius immortality while the lack of a hit dooms Clayton into shame.

P.S. Sorry again to Posada.

Friday Links: Gregorius, Rivera, Potential Rule Changes, Leiter

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Didi. (Elsa/Getty)

Pitchers and catchers report in less than three weeks and the first Grapefruit League game is four weeks from tomorrow. One month until glorious, glorious baseball. Here are some miscellaneous links and notes to check out in the meantime.

Gregorius begins baseball activities

Didi Gregorius has started limited baseball activities as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. He is taking one-handed swings and fielding grounders without throwing. It’s not much, I know, but he has to start somewhere. Gregorius is progressing well enough that he’s getting his swing in order and having batted balls hit at him. That’s not nothing. Soon he’ll get his rebuilt elbow involved.

Sir Didi had his Tommy John surgery on October 17th. Position players typically have a shorter recovery time than pitchers and everyone involved says Gregorius will play this season. We just don’t know when, exactly. Brian Cashman has indicated the Yankees will let Gregorius complete his rehab before bringing him back. They’re not going to cut corners and let him DH a la Shohei Ohtani. Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu give the Yankees some insurance here, but the sooner Didi returns, the better.

Rivera to take on expanded role with Yankees?

During a recent radio interview, new Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera revealed he will be “teaching pitching” with the Yankees in some capacity. “I’m going to start working with the New York Yankees and teaching pitching. So many guys throw hard but don’t have command. We need to teach these boys to pitch. Pitchers are getting away from pitching and are focused on throwing hard,” Rivera said.

For what it’s worth, the Yankees have not formally announced a role for Rivera, and Andy Martino says the two sides have not yet discussed an expanded role in the organization. Mariano serves as a guest instructor in Spring Training each year and that’s pretty much it, as far as we know. I’m certain the Yankees will happily bring Rivera aboard in an expanded role, and it sounds like Rivera is ready to do it. Right now, there is no formal arrangement in place. I’m guessing there will be one soon.

MLB looking to change disabled list, option time

According to Ron Blum, MLB has proposed changes to the disabled list and optional assignments that would make it more difficult for teams to manipulate their roster. Specifically, the league wants to go back to a 15-day DL, and they want players to spend at least 15 days in the minors before they are eligible to be recalled. Right now they have to wait ten days (unless there’s an injury). The MLBPA has not yet agreed to the proposal and it’s unclear if they will.

Disabled list trips have increased more than 30% since the league switched from a 15-day DL to a 10-day DL. Some of that is due to legitimate injuries and some of it is due to teams manipulating their roster. Specifically, clubs will put a starter on the 10-day DL to essentially skip a start for extra rest without playing shorthanded. Also, having to wait 15 days to recall a player rather than ten will throw a wrench into bullpen shuttles and the opener strategy to some degree, since many multi-inning relievers are send down immediately after being used. Adding the extra five days to the disabled list and optional assignments could have a big impact.

Leiter leaving YES Network

Al Leiter will not return to the YES Network broadcast booth this season, reports Andrew Marchand. He’s leaving to spend more time with his family. “I’m grateful for my 12 years. It was a family. I know it sounds like BS, but it is true. It is hard to leave. It is more about being able to see (my son and three daughters) doing their things,” Leiter said. Marchand says YES will not hire a new analyst to replace Leiter. They’ll give his games to others already on staff.

Leiter’s son Jack is a high school senior and a top 2019 draft prospect. MLB.com currently ranks him as the 20th best prospect in the draft class and says he has a “solid four-pitch mix and knows what to do with all of his offerings.” I imagine Al wants to be around for what will be a very important year for Jack. Marchand says the decision was a surprise — Leiter was scheduled to increase his YES workload this year — but it’s understandable. I enjoy Leiter in the booth. I’ll miss him.

Mariano Rivera becomes first unanimous Hall of Famer

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(Maddie Meyer/Getty)

The National Baseball Hall of Fame has four new members. Earlier tonight the Hall of Fame and the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Mariano Rivera, Mike Mussina, Edgar Martinez, and the late Roy Halladay have been voted into the Hall of Fame. They’ll be joined by Harold Baines and Lee Smith during induction weekend. Baines and Smith were voted in by the Today’s Game committee.

“Mariano was a fierce competitor and a humble champion, which has made him such a beloved baseball legend,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement. “Success and stardom never changed Mariano, and his respect for the game, the Pinstripes and for his teammates and opponents alike makes this day such a celebration of his legacy. There will be many more great and talented relief pitchers, but there will never be another like him. This is another incredible achievement for Mariano, and a day like today brings me great pride knowing he wore the Pinstripes for each and every game of his remarkable career.”

Here’s the video of Rivera and his family getting the phone call with the news:

Rivera appeared on all 425 ballots and is the first unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame. I can’t believe it. Never thought it would happen. It is stunning. Rivera is also the first player originally signed or drafted by the Yankees to be voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA since Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford were voted in back in 1974. (Phil Rizzuto and Joe Gordon were Veterans Committee selections.) Here are the seven highest voting percentages in history:

  1. Mariano Rivera: 100.00%
  2. Ken Griffey Jr.: 99.32%
  3. Tom Seaver: 98.84%
  4. Nolan Ryan: 98.79%
  5. Cal Ripken Jr.: 98.53%
  6. Ty Cobb: 98.23%
  7. George Brett: 98.19%

No other player received at least 98% of the vote. Not Hank Aaron (97.83%), Babe Ruth (95.13%), Willie Mays (94.68%), or Ted Williams (93.38%). Rivera is of course deserving of a perfect voting percentage. He is the greatest reliever in baseball history and it’s not all that close. Especially not once you include his postseason numbers. Consider the all-time postseason win probability added leaderboard:

  1. Mariano Rivera: +11.7
  2. Curt Schilling: +4.1
  3. John Smoltz: +3.6
  4. Andy Pettitte: +3.5
  5. Jon Lester & David Ortiz: +3.2 (tie)

“It’s humbling to think of the incredible journey that Mariano has had over the course of his life — his unassuming beginnings in a Panamanian fishing village to pitching for the Yankees under the brightest lights with the world watching,” Brian Cashman said in a statement. “I speak for every Yankees fan when I say how fortunate we were to have had him on our side for so long. Clearly his World Series rings and longtime statistical dominance testify to his standing among the greats to ever play our sport. But no matter how big a star he became, he never failed to carry himself with unerring professionalism and class. Mo was always someone who I could point to and say, ‘That’s what a Yankee should be like.’”

Rivera retired with a 2.21 ERA — his 205 ERA+ is far and away the best in history among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched (Clayton Kershaw is second with a 159 ERA+) — and a record 652 saves in 1,283.2 regular season innings. He also posted a 0.70 ERA and 42 saves in 141 postseason innings, and 31 times in those 42 saves he recorded at least four outs. Bonkers. A deserving Hall of Famer through and through.

As for Mussina, he became a star with the Orioles and had more wins (147 to 123), starts (288 to 248), and innings (2,009.2 to 1,553) with Baltimore than he did with the Yankees. He was still a great Yankee, however, pitching to a 3.88 ERA (114 ERA+) in eight seasons in pinstripes. Mussina never won a Cy Young or a World Series, but he is one of the ten best pitchers since the mound was lowered 50 years ago, and now he’ll assume his rightful place in Cooperstown.

“I’m so happy to see Moose recognized for his incredible career. Accomplishing what he did while spending all 18 of his seasons in the ultra-competitive AL East is remarkable,” Cashman added. “Unlike the big arms that dominate today’s pitching landscape, Mike was a quintessential craftsman who played up to his strengths and hunted for the weaknesses in his opposition — before that level of preparation was a commonplace thing to do. More importantly though, he was a gamer, plain and simple. He wanted the ball, and did everything within his power to get himself ready to contribute. I don’t get too invested in players’ individual milestones, but I was thrilled that he won 20 games in his final season. He deserved that validation then just like he deserves the validation he’s going to get this summer in Cooperstown.”

I guess it’s fitting Martinez and Halladay are going into the Hall of Fame the same year as Rivera. Edgar is pretty much the only hitter who solved Mariano. Hit .579/.652/1.053 in 23 plate appearances against him. Good gravy. Halladay had a seven or eight-year stretch as the best pitcher in baseball and, as Tom Verducci wrote in 2013, Rivera helped Halladay refine his cutter. Verducci says the Yankees fined Rivera in kangaroo court for that. I was not sad when Halladay got traded to the National League. Not at all.

Andy Pettitte received 9.9% of the vote and will remain on the ballot another year. I don’t think Pettitte is a Hall of Famer but I also didn’t think he’d receive such a low voting percentage. Five percent is needed to remain on the ballot another year and Pettitte cut it close this year. Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot in their first year of eligibility in recent years. Pettitte gets another chance.

Former Yankee Roger Clemens (59.5%) continued to gain Hall of Fame support in his seventh year on the ballot but again fell short of the 75% threshold needed for induction. So did Barry Bonds (59.1%) in his seventh year on the ballot. Fred McGriff, who the Yankees drafted then traded as a prospect, received 39.8% of the vote in his final year of Hall of Fame eligibility. The BBWAA did not vote him in, but don’t worry, one of the new eras committees surely will. The full Hall of Fame voting results are available on the BBWAA’s site.

Next year Derek Jeter will join the Hall of Fame ballot and, like Rivera, he is lock for first ballot induction. Will he be unanimous? Maybe! Former Yankees Bobby Abreu, Eric Chavez, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi, Raul Ibanez, Lyle Overbay, Brian Roberts, and Alfonso Soriano are also due to join the ballot next year. Abreu will get some stathead support. I can’t imagine any of those guys coming close to induction though.

Mariano Rivera Should be Baseball’s First Unanimous Hall of Famer

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G.O.A.T. (Getty)

There are four notable former Yankees eligible for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2019. Two will almost certainly never be elected. Andy Pettitte, a beloved fan favorite, simply doesn’t have the case and Gary Sheffield’s more compelling case is not translating into votes. Of the two remaining, Mike Mussina should already be enshrined—and 2019 may finally be his year. That leaves Mariano Rivera, about whose candidacy there is no doubt. He will be inducted in 2019, but for a player like Rivera, mere induction is not enough: he deserves to be the first player unanimously voted into the Hall of Fame.

Mike listed why he will not receive that honor a few weeks ago, and the reality is that he is right. Odds are a voter or two will strategically create a spot on their 10-spot ballot for a player who may need to clear the 5 percent threshold to remain on the ballot in 2020 by leaving off near-lock Mariano. But deserves to be and will be are different arguments, and on the merits alone, there is simply no compelling case to be made for leaving Mariano off of even a single ballot.

Rivera pitched 1,283.2 innings in his 19-year career (1996-2013), almost all of them in the 8th or 9th inning of close games. He was on the mound for the final play of an MLB record 952 games, recorded another MLB record 652 saves and compiled the best league-adjusted ERA (2.21 ERA, 205 ERA+, 49 ERA-) for any pitcher with over 1,000 innings pitched in the history of baseball. He walked only 2 men and allowed per 7 hits 9 innings pitched for a clean 1.000 WHIP, and, most impressively, gave up one home run every 18 innings pitched. All of this in the steroid-era against many of the game’s most fearsome hitters.

This translates to a 56.2 bWAR, which is the most WAR compiled by a reliever by a truly laughable amount. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS ranks him second, but that’s because Dennis Eckersley’s total is skewed by his years as a starter. As Mike wrote, among pitchers with 80 percent or more of their appearances in relief, Rivera is first in WAR—Hoyt Wilhelm is second at 50 WAR in more 1,000 more innings, and if you squint, you can see Goose Gossage’s 41.9 WAR in 3rd place. Rivera’s contemporaries in the top 30, Tom Gordon (34.9) Joe Nathan (26.7), Billy Wagner (27.7), Trevor Hoffman (26.7) and Jonathan Papelbon (23.5) are not even close.

That is especially noteworthy because of an obsession among baseball writers to anoint his successor, even when Rivera himself was still dominating. A Google search of “next Mariano” reveals that Roberto Osuna, Zach Britton, Joba Chamberlain, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Jonathan Papelbon have all been dubbed baseball’s next Rivera. The best of these comparisons occurred while Rivera was playing, and almost always ended in a humorous fashion.

That’s because of almost superhuman longevity, which is worth detailing in a quick exercise by highlighting three seasons in the beginning, in the middle and very end of his career.

At age 26, Rivera logged what is one of the most dominant seasons in relief in modern baseball history. In 107.2 IP he pitched to a 2.09 ERA (240 ERA+) with a 1.88 FIP, 10 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and surrendered only 1 home run. He was worth, according to Baseball-Reference, an absurd 5 wins as a multi-inning setup reliever and was a key player in the shocking 1996 World Series run.

In 2006, a decade later, 36-year-old Rivera posted another 4 win season. In 75 innings had a 1.80 ERA (252 ERA+) despite only recording 6 strikeouts per 9 innings (but walked only 1 per 9) and surrendered 3 home runs. This was hardly a notable season at the time; it was just another season of Mariano Rivera being Mariano Rivera.

Finally, at age 43 in 2013 (a year after a season-ending ACL injury), Rivera had 44 saves in 64 innings. His 2.11 ERA (190 ERA+), nearly 8 Ks per 9 and impeccable control (1 walk per 9) remained in line with his career numbers; he retired because of the travel, not because of any regression or diminished returns. This, more than anything else, is what separates Mariano Rivera from his peers—three seasons, each almost ten years apart, in which he was virtually unhittable.

But if Rivera’s regular season achievements have no comparisons, it is the postseason where the separation is most stark. There’s almost no point repeating the laundry list of achievements, but two things stand out: 1) Rivera got better across the board in October (he had a 0.70 ERA) and 2) in 141 postseason innings (two full seasons), Rivera surrendered only two (2!!) home runs. He won 5 World Series, was on the mound for the final out of four consecutive World Series and had some of the most heroic performances in the recent Yankee dynasty. The unfavorable endings of the both 2001 World Series and 2004 ALCS are so memorable not just because of their natural excitement, but because so much of the action came against Rivera—it’s as if nobody could believe their eyes.

All of this adds up to a simple, undeniable fact: we will never see another Mariano Rivera. He is, by any standard, the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball history, the baseline against which all other relievers are judged. His postseason heroics will never be matched, his longevity defies belief and, of course, he did it all with one pitch for two decades.

Tom Kelly, the manager of the 1996 Minnesota Twins, best summarized him after an early season matchup against the ’96 version of Rivera: “He should be in a higher league. Ban him from baseball; he should be illegal.” Voters now have a chance to actually put him in a higher league by making him baseball’s first unanimous Hall of Famer.

After all, if Rivera pitched without peers throughout his career, that is how he ought to be inducted to the Hall of Fame: a cut above the rest, having accomplished what nobody else could do, or will ever do again.

Mariano Rivera won’t be the first unanimous Hall of Famer and that’s okay

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

In about eight weeks the 2019 National Baseball Hall of Fame induction class will be announced. The ballot was announced last week. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Mussina are the notable holdovers. Martinez is on the ballot for the tenth and final time and should get in after receiving 70.4% of the vote last year. Mussina is on the ballot for the sixth time and received 63.5% of the vote last year. He might get in this year.

Among the first time eligible players on the ballot this year is Mariano Rivera — has it really been five years since this already? — who is of course a lock for induction. Rivera will clear the 75% threshold needed for induction with ease. He is the greatest closer of all-time and no one is close. Trevor Hoffman? Please. Rivera allowed 38 fewer runs in 194.1 more innings, and their postseason records do not compare. A strong case can be made Rivera is the greatest postseason performer ever. Eleven earned runs in 141 innings? Good gravy.

Rivera will sail into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He will not be the first unanimous Hall of Famer, however. I can say that with near certainty right now. Here, before we move any further, are the highest voting percentages in Hall of Fame history:

  1. Ken Griffey Jr.: 99.32%
  2. Tom Seaver: 98.84%
  3. Nolan Ryan: 98.79%
  4. Cal Ripken Jr.: 98.53%
  5. Ty Cobb: 98.23%
  6. George Brett: 98.19%

No other Hall of Famer received at least 98% of the vote. Not Hank Aaron (97.83%), not Babe Ruth (95.13%), not Willie Mays (94.68%), not Ted Williams (93.38%). Could you imagine not voting for one of those guys? What sort of logic pretzel do you have to twist yourself into to justify not voting for Aaron or Mays? Good grief.

Anyway, Rivera will (probably) not be voted into the Hall of Fame unanimously simply because the odds are so stacked against him. There are 400-something Hall of Fame ballots each year — there were 422 last year — and chances are at least one of those 400-something voters will exclude Rivera. I see four possible explanations for not voting for Rivera and I’d rank them in this order in terms of likelihood:

  1. There are only ten spots on the ballot, and, since Rivera is a lock, a voter with a full ballot opts to use one of those ten spots on a player who is on the bubble and needs more help, like Mussina.
  2. Rivera being “only a one-inning reliever” is held against him. This is an old school way of thinking but it does still happen nowadays. There are currently only six relievers in the Hall of Fame, including starter-turned-reliever Dennis Eckersley.
  3. An old school voter clings to the belief that if guys like Cy Young, Yogi Berra, and Joe DiMaggio weren’t first ballot Hall of Famers (it’s true!), no one deserves to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and doesn’t vote for Mo. (“If this guy wasn’t unanimous, no one should be unanimous” fits here too.)
  4. Ignorance. A voter doesn’t believe Rivera’s body of work is worthy of induction. Silly? Absolutely. Possible? Also absolutely. I’d like to see someone make a genuine case against him. I’m not sure it can be done.

There is close to a zero percent chance No. 4 happens. Hall of Fame voters and awards voters aren’t as stupid as fans seem to believe. There are 400-something ballots and I refuse to believe a single one of those 400-something voters will genuinely believe Rivera’s body of work is not worthy of inclusion in the Hall of Fame. I can’t see it.

No. 1 is far and away the most likely reason Rivera will not be a unanimous Hall of Famer. “Gaming” the ballot absolutely happens. In 2015, Mike Berardino did not vote for Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez because he was comfortable assuming they would get voted in anyway, and he opted to use those two spots on his ten-player ballot on other players, specifically Alan Trammel and Larry Walker. I’m sure other voters have done something similar over the years.

Every few years we go through the “this guy should be the first unanimous Hall of Famer” thing and it never pans out. Rickey Henderson should’ve been unanimous. Greg Maddux should have also been unanimous. Griffey should’ve been unanimous. Rivera should be unanimous. Lots of guys should be unanimous but none have been so far for various reasons. Some reasons are more justifiable than others. (I personally don’t agree with “gaming” the ballot but I respect the strategy.)

Ultimately, Rivera is going to cruise into the Hall of Fame this year with a voting percentage well north of the 75% threshold. I would be surprised if he doesn’t receive at least 90% of the vote, in fact. Rivera’s getting in and, at the end of the day, that’s all that matters. Unanimous? First ballot? Who cares. There’s no special wing in Cooperstown for first ballot guys and they won’t build one for unanimous players. Voting percentages aren’t even included on the plaque because that would be silly. The Hall of Fame is about the player, not the voters. You’re either in or you’re out, and those players are in.

Would I like to see Rivera be the first unanimous Hall of Famer? Of course. It would be cool as hell and it’s hard to come up with a more deserving player. Rivera wasn’t just great, he was historically great. He’s so far ahead of every other reliever in history that it’s not even funny. I mean, look at the career WAR leaderboard among players who made at least 80% of their career appearances in relief:

  1. Mariano Rivera: +56.3 WAR
  2. Hoyt Wilhelm: +50.1 WAR (in almost 1,000 more innings than Rivera)
  3. Goose Gossage: +41.9 WAR

And that doesn’t even include the postseason! Rivera is an all-time great and he carried himself with class throughout his career. He was a great ambassador for the game. You couldn’t pick a better player to be the first unanimous Hall of Famer, potentially. But it won’t happen though. The odds are against Rivera only because the numbers suggest it won’t happen. There are so many voters and every single one has to vote the same way for it to happen.

Rivera not getting into the Hall of Fame this year would be a travishamockery. That would be worthy of all the scorn and fury the internet has to offer. The voters get the slam dunks right though and Rivera is a slam dunk. He’ll be voted into the Hall of Fame this year, likely not unanimously, but that’s okay. Voting percentages and induction years are forgotten in time. The important this is we got to watch Rivera’s brilliant career and, as of next summer, he’ll find himself in Cooperstown alongside the all-time greats, right where he belongs.

Half Retro: An Appreciation of the 2008 New York Yankees

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(Getty)

2008 was a year of transition in many ways. The latter portion was the beginning of my senior year of college. It was an election year. It was also the first year since 1995 that someone other than Joe Torre was the Yankee manager, as well as the first year since 1993–strike in 1994 notwithstanding–that the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs. It was the last year in Yankee Stadium II. It was their “worst” year in a long time, and they still won 89 games.

As he usually was around this time, Alex Rodriguez–coming off one of the best Yankee seasons in history–was the team’s offensive leader. He was second in average, first in OBP, slugging (also led the entire AL at .573), RBI, etc. Hefinished eighth in AL MVP voting. Dustin Pedroia was that year’s winner at 6.8 bWAR; A-Rod clocked in at 6.8, beating all MVP placers (tied with Cliff Lee). He only played in 138 games that year and had 143 PA fewer than Pedroia.

Ironically–we’ll get to why later–this team had two pitching standouts, Mike Mussina (in his final year) and Mariano Rivera. Both finished in the top for the Cy Young voting–Mo fifth and Moose tied for sixth with Ervin Santana. Rivera’s ERA (1.40) was the second lowest of his career. His ERA+ (316!) was the best of his career, as was his 0.665 (!!) WHIP and his 12.83 (!!!) K/BB. He was 38 years old. And still had years left in the tank. These numbers, in retrospect, perfectly capture Mariano Rivera’s career. Sure, relievers put up gaudy numbers all the time, but these ones just stand out so much, just like Rivera does among relief pitchers. He wasn’t always the best reliever in a given year, but he did it over almost 20 seasons, something no one else is likely to replicate any time soon.

(Presswire)

Mike Mussina’s 2008, his final year, was a perfect exit. It was a bounceback from a miserable 2007 and was his best year as a Yankee since his first year back in 2001. He finished in the top ten in bWAR (7); wins (2); WHIP (10); BB/9 (2); K/BB (4); ERA+ (5); ERA (6); and FIP (5). A great year by a great pitcher who’ll hopefully be a Hall of Famer this time next year.

Those three examples are typical–great players doing great things. But that’s not really the story of the 2008 Yankees. The story of the 2008 Yankees is one of frustration, just as much as it was one about transition. Robinson Cano had a terrible first half. Derek Jeter refused to take time off after Daniel Cabrera broke his hand with a pitch. Richie Sexson, Morgan Ensberg, Chad Moeller, and Justin Christian were guys on this team. They traded for Xavier Nady. Jose Molina and the corpse of Ivan Rodriguez did most of the catching. Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner started 35 (!) games between the two of them. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes were putrid. Joba Chamberlain got hurt. And Chein Ming Wang’s career essentially ended on June 15, 2008—my 21st birthday. And despite all that, the Yankees won 89 games. Were they in the AL Central, they would’ve tied for the lead in the division. Had the current playoff system existed, they would’ve played the Red Sox (95 wins) in the one game playoff.

Think about that for a moment. A team that had Sir Sidney and Darrell Rasner start 35 games won almost 90 games. Missing the playoffs was frustrating, sure, but this was a sure sign that Joe Girardi was going to be a solid manager who could get the most–or close to it–out of his teams. This is what makes looking back on this team just as fond as it is frustrating. While they didn’t really get anywhere or accomplish anything, they made the best of a whole lot of bad situations and managed to be respectable when they could have easily not been at all. Aside from Mike Mussina’s swan song, not much will stand out about 2008 ten years from now. It’s not likely to be a season I tell my son all about. But it was an important year that marked the end of an era for a team and ushered in something new that we all love today.

The best seasons at each position by a Yankee during the RAB era

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2007 A-Rod was a hell of a thing. (NY Daily News)
2007 A-Rod was a hell of a thing. (NY Daily News)

RAB celebrated its tenth birthday Monday. Tenth! I can’t believe it. Ben, Joe, and I started this site as a hobby and it grew into something far greater than we ever expected. The site has been around for a World Series championship, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez getting to 3,000 hits, Mariano Rivera becoming the all-time saves king … we’ve seen lots of cool stuff these last ten years. Thank you to everyone who has been reading, no matter how long you’ve been with us.

For the sake of doing something a little out of the ordinary, let’s look back at the best individual seasons at each position by Yankees players during the RAB era. Who had the best season by a catcher? By a right fielder? That sorta stuff. We launched on February 20th, 2007, so this covers the 2007-16 seasons. Come with me, won’t you?

Catcher: 2007 Jorge Posada

Very easy call behind the plate. Posada had the best offensive season of his career in 2007, hitting .338/.426/.543 (157 wRC+) with 20 home runs in 589 plate appearances. He caught 138 games that year — it was Jorge’s eighth straight season with 120+ starts behind the plate — and went to his fifth and final All-Star Game. Posada also finished sixth in the MVP voting. By bWAR (+5.4) and fWAR (+5.6), it was the third best season of his career behind 2003 (+5.9 and +6.0) and 2000 (+5.5 and +6.1). Honorable mention goes out to 2015 Brian McCann and 2016 Gary Sanchez. (Sanchez’s +3.0 bWAR last year is second best by a Yankee catcher during the RAB era.)

First Base: 2009 Mark Teixeira

Another easy call. Teixeira’s first season in pinstripes featured a .292/.383/.565 (142 wRC+) batting line and AL leading home run (39), RBI (122), and total bases (344) totals. He went to his second All-Star Game and won his third Gold Glove at first base as well. Teixeira was the MVP runner-up to Joe Mauer, though Teixeira and the Yankees swept Mauer and the Twins in the ALDS en route to winning the World Series. Got the last laugh that year. Both bWAR (+5.0) and fWAR (+5.1) say Teixeira’s 2009 season was far and away the best by a Yankees first baseman since RAB became a thing. Honorable mention goes to a bunch of other Teixeira seasons.

Second Base: 2012 Robinson Cano

The only question at second base was which Cano season to pick. His run from 2009-13 was truly the best five-year stretch by a second baseman in franchise history. Cano hit .313/.379/.550 (149 wRC+) with 33 homers in 2012 while playing 161 of 162 regular season games. He set new career highs in homers, slugging percentage, total bases (345), bWAR (+8.7), and fWAR (+7.6) while tying his previous career high in doubles (48). Robbie was a monster. He went to his third straight All-Star Game and won his third straight Gold Glove, and also finished fourth in the MVP voting. The club’s best season by a non-Cano second baseman during the RAB era belongs to Starlin Castro. Quite the drop-off there, eh?

Shortstop: 2009 Derek Jeter

The Captain circa 2009. (Paul Bereswill/Getty)
The Captain circa 2009. (Paul Bereswill/Getty)

As great as Teixeira was in 2009, he wasn’t even the best player on his own infield that year. The Yankees flip-flopped Jeter and Johnny Damon in the batting order that season and the Cap’n responded by hitting .334/.406/.465 (130 wRC+) with 18 home runs and 30 steals in 35 attempts as the leadoff man. It was also the first (and only) time in Jeter’s career the fielding stats rated him as above-average. I remember thinking Derek looked noticeably more mobile in the field. That was the year after Brian Cashman reportedly told Jeter the team would like him to work on his defense after finding out Joe Torre never relayed the message years ago. The 2009 season was the second best of Jeter’s career by fWAR (+6.6) and third best by bWAR (+6.5) behind his monster 1998-99 seasons. The Cap’n was an All-Star that year and he finished third in the MVP voting behind Mauer and Teixeira.

Third Base: 2007 Alex Rodriguez

The single greatest season by a Yankee not just during the RAB era, but since Mickey Mantle was in his prime. I went to about 25 games that season and I swear I must’ve seen A-Rod hit 25 home runs. He went deep every night it seemed. Rodriguez hit .314/.422/.645 (175 wRC+) that summer and led baseball in runs (143), home runs (54), RBI (156), SLG (.645), OPS+ (176), bWAR (+9.4), and fWAR (+9.6). All that earned him a spot in the All-Star Game (duh) and his third MVP award (second with the Yankees). A-Rod received 26 of the 28 first place MVP votes that year. The two Detroit voters voted for Magglio Ordonez. For reals. What an incredible season this was. I’ve never seen a player locked in like that for 162 games. Alex was on a completely different level than everyone else in 2007.

Left Field: 2010 Brett Gardner

With all due respect to Damon, who was outstanding for the 2009 World Series team, 2010 Gardner was better than 2009 Damon. Gardner hit .277/.383/.379 (112 wRC+) with five home runs and 47 steals that season to go along with his excellent defense. Damon, meanwhile, hit a healthy .282/.365/.489 (122 wRC+) with a career high tying 24 home runs and 12 steals in 2009. His defense was so very shaky though. Remember how he used to take those choppy steps that made it seem like he had no idea where the ball was? Both bWAR (+7.3 to +4.2) and fWAR (+6.1 to +3.6) say 2010 Gardner was better than 2009 Damon, but forget about WAR. Gardner got on base much more often and was the better baserunner. I think that combined with the glove more than makes up for Damon’s edge in power. Honorable mention goes to Matsui’s .285/.367/.488 (124 wRC+) effort with 25 home runs in 2007.

Center Field: 2011 Curtis Granderson

Remember how much Granderson struggled the first four and a half months of the 2010 season? He was hitting .240/.307/.417 (91 wRC+) with ten homers in 335 plate appearances prior to his career-altering pow wow with hitting coach Kevin Long that August. Granderson made some mechanical changes and hit .259/.354/.560 (144 wRC+) with 14 homers in 193 plate appearances the rest of the way. He went from a passable outfielder to one of the game’s top power hitters seemingly overnight. That success carried over into 2011, during which Granderson hit .262/.364/.552 (146 wRC+) with 41 home runs. He led the league in runs (136) and RBI (119), went to the All-Star Game, and finished fourth in the MVP voting. My man.

Right Field: 2010 Nick Swisher

We’re picking between Swisher seasons here, and I’m going with 2010 over 2012. Swisher managed a .288/.359/.511 (134 wRC+) line with 29 home runs in 2010, making it the best offensive season of his career. Add in right field defense that was better than Swisher got credit for, and you’ve got a +3.7 bWAR and +4.3 fWAR player. Right field lacks that big eye-popping season like the other positions during the RAB era. Swisher was reliably above-average but not a star.

Designated Hitter: 2009 Hideki Matsui

Happier times. (Al Bello/Getty)
Happier times. (Al Bello/Getty)

I came into this exercise with a pretty good idea who I’d have at each position, and I assumed 2009 Matsui would be the easy call at DH. Then when I got down to it and looked at the stats, I realized 2015 A-Rod was pretty much right there with him. Check it out:

PA AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR XBH RBI bWAR fWAR
2009 Matsui 528 .274/.367/.509 127 28 50 90 +2.7 +2.4
2015 A-Rod 620 .250/.356/.486 130 33 56 86 +3.1 +2.7

That’s really close! Matsui hit for a higher average and got on-base more, though A-Rod had more power. A lefty hitting 28 homers in Yankee Stadium isn’t as impressive as a righty hitting 33, even when considering the 92 extra plate appearances. Since they’re so close, I’m fine with using the postseason as a tiebreaker. Matsui was excellent in October while A-Rod went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in the Wild Card Game loss to the Astros. Tie goes to the World Series MVP.

Now that we have our nine position players, I’m going to build a lineup, because why not? Lineups are fun. Here’s how I’d set the batting order:

  1. 2009 Derek Jeter
  2. 2012 Robinson Cano
  3. 2007 Alex Rodriguez
  4. 2009 Mark Teixeira
  5. 2007 Jorge Posada
  6. 2011 Curtis Granderson
  7. 2009 Hideki Matsui
  8. 2010 Nick Swisher
  9. 2010 Brett Gardner

Look good? It does to me. Dave Pinto’s lineup analysis tool tells me that lineup would average 6.87 runs per game, or 1,113 runs per 162 games. The modern record for runs scored in a season is 1,067 by the 1931 Yankees. (Several teams from the 1800s scored more.) The 1999 Indians were the last team to score 1,000 runs. They scored 1,009.

Starting Pitchers

Moooooose. (Nick Laham/Getty)
Moooooose. (Nick Laham/Getty)
IP ERA ERA+ FIP bWAR fWAR
2008 Mike Mussina 200.1 3.37 131 3.32 +5.2 +4.6
2009 CC Sabathia 230 3.37 137 3.39 +6.2 +5.9
2011 CC Sabathia 237.1 3.00 143 2.88 +7.5 +6.4
2012 Hiroki Kuroda 219.2 3.32 127 3.86 +5.5 +3.8
2016 Masahiro Tanaka 199.2 3.07 142 3.51 +5.4 +4.6

Chien-Ming Wang’s 2007 season as well as a few more Sabathia seasons (2010 and 2012, specifically) were among the final cuts. Late career Andy Pettitte was steady and reliable, but he didn’t have any truly great seasons from 2007-13.

Sabathia is the gold standard for Yankees starting pitchers during the RAB era. From 2009-12, he was the club’s best pitcher since guys like Pettitte, Mussina, David Cone, and Roger Clemens around the turn of the century. Mussina had that marvelous farewell season and Tanaka was awesome last year. Kuroda? He was the man. One-year contracts don’t get any better than what he did for the Yankees.

The Yankees haven’t had an all-time great pitcher during the RAB era, a Clayton Kershaw or a Felix Hernandez, someone like that, but they had four years of a bonafide ace in Sabathia plus several other very good seasons. Everyone in the table except Kuroda received Cy Young votes those years. Sabathia finished fourth in the voting in both 2009 and 2011.

Relief Pitchers

IP ERA ERA+ FIP bWAR fWAR
2008 Mariano Rivera 70.2 1.40 316 2.03 +4.3 +3.2
2009 Mariano Rivera 66.1 1.76 262 2.89 +3.5 +2.0
2011 David Robertson 66.2 1.08 399 1.84 +4.0 +2.6
2014 Dellin Betances 90 1.40 274 1.64 +3.7 +3.2
2015 Dellin Betances 84 1.50 271 2.48 +3.7 +2.4
2015 Andrew Miller 61.2 2.04 200 2.16 +2.2 +2.0
2016 Dellin Betances 73 3.08 141 1.78 +1.1 +2.9

So many great relief seasons to choose from. I had to leave out several Rivera seasons (2007, 2010, 2011, 2013), several Robertson seasons (2012-14), a Miller season (2016), a Rafael Soriano season (2012), and even a Phil Hughes season (2009). Remember how great Hughes was in relief in 2009? Hughes and Rivera were automatic that year. The Yankees have been blessed with some truly excellent relievers these past ten years. The great Mariano Rivera retired and somehow they have replaced him seamlessly. We’ve seen some amazing performances since launching RAB.