Alex Rodriguez Archives - River Avenue Blues

What if there was a Division Series MVP?

March 11, 2019 by Steven Tydings

Two-time ALDS MVP Bernie Williams (Getty Images)

You’ve likely come to this fine website for astute baseball analysis, but allow me a modicum of whimsy.

I recently found out that in Alex Rodriguez’s original 10-year deal with the Rangers, there was a standard awards clause, giving out bonuses if he achieved various results. This awards clause was curious, however, as it included a bonus for Division Series MVP.

There is no Division Series MVP. There has never been a Division Series MVP. There is no good reason for a Division Series MVP … but what if MLB gave it out anyway?

Would A-Rod have won one or two ALDS MVPs with the Yankees? Almost assuredly. Therefore, I went back through all of the Yankees’ ALDS victories and determined the rightful winner of this non-existent award. First up, 1996.

1996 ALDS MVP: Bernie Williams

The King of the Division Series, Bernie Williams caught fire in the 1996 ALDS. He posted the highest WPA of any non-reliever and went 7-for-15 with three home runs. When you add further context, it simply gets better.

Bernie singled and scored the game-tying run in the eighth inning of Game 2 as the Yankees trailed the series. He homered in the first inning of Game 3 before tying it late with a sacrifice fly. Finally, he tied and capped the clincher with his final homer of the series. Enough said!

1998 ALDS MVP: Shane Spencer

Shane Spencer should not get this award. He was going to be a replacement player in 1995 and, in more relevant arguments, only played two games in this series.

But he hit two dingers!

The Yankees gave up just one run over three games with Davids Wells and Cone alongside Andy Pettitte dominating. However, I’m not going to give this to three people at once. I’m not going to split this award either. This has to go to one player and Spencer is it.

Spencer homered to put the Yanks ahead in Game 2 before singling and scoring two innings later. In Game 3, his three-run homer in the sixth inning put the game, and thus the series, out of reach. Normally, this isn’t enough for a series MVP, but it’s enough here.

1999 ALDS MVP: Royce Clayton

Royce Clayton didn’t play for the Yankees. What? I’ll explain.

This is the type of series why this award does not exist. The Yankees won the series in a rout with a 14-1 lead in aggregate and only one semi-interesting game in the middle.

I just couldn’t bring myself to award any particular Yankee. Derek Jeter went 5-for-11 with a double, triple and two walks. Mariano Rivera had two saves and three innings pitched. Bernie had six RBI and went 4-for-11 after pouring it on late in a blowout Game 1.

So I’m giving it to Clayton, the Rangers’ shortstop. He went 0-for-10 in the series, distinguishing himself among the Rangers’ hitters, who only mustered 14 hits and a .152/.228/.207 collective batting line. Yuck.

2000 ALDS MVP: Mariano Rivera

You could give Rivera about four of these awards (1996, 1998-2000, 2003). He has to get at least one, in my award-giving opinion, and this was his most impactful series.

Rivera saved all three wins in the 2000 ALDS — which went the distance — and threw five important innings along the way. He gave up just two hits, walked no one and struck out two Athletics.

Though all three of his saves came in multi-run victories, Rivera entered Games 2, 3 and 5 with the tying run at the plate and deftly navigated each situation. Game 5 was essentially a six-run first inning followed by scratching and clawing to get to Rivera. Let’s call this one a unanimous selection.

2001 ALDS MVP: Derek Jeter

Jorge Posada has been overlooked for his entire career. Perhaps not as much as Williams recently as Posada made the “Core Four” but based on his Hall of Fame vote totals and by playing next to Rivera and Jeter, he didn’t get the credit he deserved.

And by the numbers, he should be the 2001 ALDS MVP. He went 8-for-18, hit the homer for the lone run of the pivotal Game 3 to turnaround the series. He compiled a 1.167 OPS.

But the Flip Play happened.

You can’t ignore the play and Jeter would have won easily on that narrative if they’d given out the award back then. Doesn’t hurt that he matched Posada with an 8-for-18 series.

Sorry, Jorge. I tried.

2003 ALDS MVP: Bernie Williams

Going just on raw numbers, Jeter would win again. He went 6-for-14 with four walks, a homer and a 1.198 OPS. However, the homer was meaningless and he already stole the award from Posada.

Outside of a loss in Game 1, this was reminiscent of the 1998 and 99 ALDS with three good starts in a row, but no one of the starters can get the award. Rivera could once again win this, but he’s not going to be the first two-time award winner here.

Therefore, we’re going with Williams, who was at the center of the action in the three wins. He hit a sac fly to put the Yankees up in Game 2 early, scored the go-ahead run and knocked in an insurance run in Game 3 and put the team up to start the knockout rally in Game 4.

2004 ALDS MVP: Alex Rodriguez

The whole point of this exercise was to get the obscenely wealthy Rodriguez his extra $100,000 or so and he gets it right off the bat.

A-Rod essentially wins it for Game 2 alone, as the Yankees knotted up the series in dramatic fashion. He homered in the fifth to put NYY up one before extending the lead with a single in the seventh. After a rare Mariano Rivera meltdown, the game went to extras and the Yankees trailed in the 12th. Don’t worry, Joe Nathan came on for the save and Rodriguez hit a game-tying, ground-rule double and set up the winning run two batters later.

After a quiet Game 3, he went 2-for-4 with two walks in Game 4 and scored the series-clinching run in the 11th inning by doubling off Kyle Lohse, stealing third base and scoring on a wild pitch.

2009 ALDS MVP: Alex Rodriguez

While A-Rod already got his bonus for the 2004 series, the 2009 ALDS was his piece de resistance. It was an undisputed masterpiece. He had two RBI singles in Game 1 to pad the Yankees’ lead en route to 7-2 win. He hit a tying homer in Game 3 to lead another comeback win.

But this is all you really need to know.

Other players had good series then, but no one neared Rodriguez’s peak in this one. This was the best all-time ALDS for a position player.

2010 ALDS MVP: Curtis Granderson

In a three-game series, the MVP comes down to one game, if not one moment. There isn’t enough time for a starting pitcher to go twice, so whoever makes the play or comes through with the key hit would earn it. This is precisely the reason why there’s no ALDS MVP in reality, 2009 A-Rod being a supernova exception.

With two men on and two outs and the Yankees down 3-2 on the road, Curtis Granderson came to the plate against Francisco Liriano, who was 100 pitches into his start. This was a guy coming off a career year facing Granderson, who could barely make contact against lefties.

But Granderson smacked a ball to right-center that carried. And carried. In most parks, it would have left, but it went for a triple to put the Yankees in front. Mark Teixeira hit the game-winning homer an inning later, but Granderson’s shot was the turning point where it came apart for Minnesota.

Tex has a cogent argument for MVP, but I’m handing it to Grandy after he put up better overall numbers, going 5-for-11 with a double, the triple, three RBI and a walk in a precursor to his near-MVP season.

2012 ALDS MVP: CC Sabathia

Raul Ibanez stole the headlines in this series with his two Game 3 homers and his go-ahead single in Game 5. Normally, just those moments would be enough to win the short series MVP.

But CC Sabathia won two games nearly by himself and shut down the Orioles’ hopes of an upset, even with Ibanez’s advantage in WPA (0.90 to 0.84). CC threw 8 2/3rds in Game 1 of a closely-contested matchup and went the distance in Game 5.

Game 5 was likely the last peak CC Sabathia game. He’s had some big playoff moments since, but he hasn’t been the ace or workhorse in the regular season or playoffs after that game. He threw 121 pitches, allowed just six baserunners and held Baltimore to one run, striking out nine. He capped it off by throwing out a runner at first and clinching the series. Well done, big man!

2017 ALDS MVP: Didi Gregorius

There wasn’t a clear statistical victor in this one. Sabathia had a solid Game 5 and underrated Game 2, but he didn’t get the win in either start and wasn’t dominant. Nearly every hitter and reliever had a big moment, but no one stood out. Aroldis Chapman would have been an OK choice if one player didn’t steal the show in Game 5.

And it was Didi Gregorius who stole said show in the winner-take-all finale. His two home runs off Corey Kluber were enough to give the Yankees the series. I still get goosebumps watching this.

—

If there was an ALDS MVP, history looks more favorably upon A-Rod, who was often destroyed for his playoff woes. Rivera, Williams and Jeter get their just due for postseason excellence that wrapped into two decades. Meanwhile, one or two hits get Spencer and Gregorius immortality while the lack of a hit dooms Clayton into shame.

P.S. Sorry again to Posada.

The A-Rod Trade Offers Valuable Lessons

February 16, 2019 by Bobby Montano

The Yankees finalized one of the most significant transactions in their 116-year history fifteen years ago today when they sent Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias (originally a PTBNL) to the Texas Rangers. The Yankees, of course, received Alex Rodriguez and $67 million in return; this would be the best trade in the history of almost every other franchise in the league, but the Yankees once traded $100,000 for Babe Ruth. It is worth reflecting on the circumstances that led to the league-altering trade, for Alex Rodriguez is the embodiment of baseball’s contemporary labor unrest and his story imparts many important lessons.

Background

We must begin with then-Rangers owner Tom Hicks’ decision to extend A-Rod a 10-year, $252 million offer following the 2000 season. Rodriguez, a shortstop about to enter his age-25 season, owned a .309/.374/.561 (138 OPS+) line with 189 home runs in 3,515 career plate appearances and had already been worth 38 wins in his career. He was undeniably one of the most impressive players in the sport’s history, but the deal still sent shockwaves through baseball.

It’s easy to see why: it dwarfed the next closest in baseball (Mike Hampton’s 8-year, $121 million deal), doubled the value of the next closest deal in professional sports (Kevin Garnett’s 6-year, $126 million deal) and worth more even than Hicks paid for the team. It was a watershed moment for player salaries, and Rodriguez became the first ballplayer to earn more than $20 million annually.

The reaction among the league was swift and fierce: The Chicago Tribune noted that “baseball executives were shaking their heads over how Boras got [him] $25.2 million per year.” Then-Angels GM Bill Stoneman remarked that “the health of the game is changing, and not in a positive direction” as a result of the deal. Even the Rangers themselves couldn’t be too sure, with Hicks suggesting that he “maybe” overpaid Rodriguez.

But it was the “stupefied” league official Sandy Alderson, then MLB’s Vice President of Baseball Operations, who went the furthest, arguing that the deal triggered a “crisis situation” that would “affect every team’s ability to operate in the system.” He even went so far as to suggest that the move undermined “competition and whether the fans believe they are going to receive a competitive event for the dollar they are paying.”

The reaction of league executives, as it so often is, was echoed by many fans—even those of the Rangers. A truly stunning 54 percent of polled Rangers fans after the deal believed that the team should have pursued pitching instead of Rodriguez. Bill Simmons’ Page 2 column on ESPN, and its submissions from fans, rated A-Rod the most overpaid player in baseball.

Journalists agreed, as a befuddled Los Angeles Times writer Steve Henson struggled to grasp how A-Rod might be worth the money, Murray Chass wrote in the New York Times that Hicks “irked his peers” by “overpaying” Rodriguez and Doug Pappas at Baseball Prospectus argued that Hicks had proven that “even the most valuable player in baseball can still be overpaid.”

I bring this up only to underscore the crucial point that since 2000, there has been no severing the link between Alex Rodriguez and money. He became a billboard for opulence and reckless spending then, not after he landed his second megadeal in 2007. That he was overpaid stuck in people’s minds, and his salary fueled a decade’s worth of hot takes and controversy.

Lost in the noise was Rodriguez’s actual performance. In his first three years with Texas, Rodriguez was a three-time All-Star, winning with three Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers and an MVP award (he finished 2^nd, once too). He amassed 25.5 bWAR (8.5 a year) and far outpaced any $/WAR evaluative metric, hitting .305/.395/.615 (155 OPS+) with 156 home runs. The Rangers had paid him $66 million already, but Rodriguez was worth $72.3 million on the field: he was a bargain.

But it ultimately was not good enough. Rodriguez’s contract meant that he became a boogeyman on a cellar-dwelling Rangers team despite his remarkable achievements, and Hicks decided he had to go.

The Trade

Money, again, would be at the center of the negotiations to acquire Rodriguez. Boston originally reached an agreement with Texas to acquire the superstar for disgruntled Manny Ramirez, but even though the Red Sox had been stunned in the ALCS weeks before, they refused to pay A-Rod’s entire deal. Rodriguez agreed to restructure his contract, losing money; worried about league-wide implications, the Player’s Union stepped in and correctly killed the deal. But it is worth remembering that Rodriguez was only 28, outperforming his salary and seemed a lock to be the all-time home run king—and teams still balked at his contract.

Enter the Yankees, winners of 6 of the last 8 pennants (and four World Series) and a towering payroll. Sensing an opening, the Yanks swooped in after third-baseman Aaron Boone injured his knee playing pick-up basketball in January. The Rangers agreed to send Rodriguez to New York for Alfonso Soriano and a PTBNL (that could have been Robinson Cano, but instead the Rangers chose Arias). But the Rangers were so desperate to shed Rodriguez that they offered the Yankees $67 million to take him. The league’s most valuable man was a pariah.

Even in New York, Rodriguez was unable to escape the shadow of his deal, even as he capitulated to the demands of Derek Jeter and moved positions to third base despite being a far better shortstop in every way. The Yanks payroll neared $200 million, and the league was unhappy. Then-Arizona GM Jerry Colangelo argued that “the disparity is not healthy for the sport” and spurned Red Sox president Larry Lucchino said that “the Yankees resources gave them the capability to do what no one else could do.” It didn’t matter whether any of this was actually true. What was important was to say it.

The Rangers bragged at the time that the deal was all “about flexibility. We’re trading the best player in the game and we’re getting tremendous financial flexibility.” What’s old is new again. (It’s worth noting that the financial flexibility never allowed the Rangers to finish above 3^rd place from 2004-7.)

The Yankees were clear winners of the deal in baseball terms: Rodriguez would hit .303/.403/.573 (153 OPS+) with 173 home runs, two MVPs and four All-Star selections in the four years before he exercised his opt-out. He was worth 31 bWAR over that stretch, again laying bare the fact that consternation over his contract terms was misguided. He was paid $102 million from 2004-7 and produced $107 million on the field, but the terms of the trade meant that the Yankees only paid him $64 million—meaning Rodriguez provided $43.9 million in surplus value for New York. Again, the idea that he was overpaid is a myth: the data make clear that he was underpaid in both Texas and New York.

Lessons

A-Rod’s opt-out after 2007 ended his 10-year deal three years early. Over the terms of the deal, he slugged .304/.400/.591 (154 OPS+) with 329 home runs, 3 MVPs, 7 ASGs and produced 56.4 bWAR. The conception, held widely at the time and persisting to this day, that Rodriguez was overpaid was flatly false. The terms of his first deal were a bargain: he was paid $168 million and produced $180 million.

But that barely mattered, in the end. A-Rod gained a reputation for being dead weight, a financial albatross that showed both the dangers of big spending and long-term commitments in spite of all observable reality. His contract, offered 19 years ago, is still the 3^rd-largest in MLB history (exceeded only by himself and Giancarlo Stanton) and only a few players have even come close.

As the league’s top free agents in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado (to say nothing of the 2^nd best reliever in MLB history, Craig Kimbrel) struggle to find work, it is hard not to think back about Alex Rodriguez. He was fortunate enough to get a contract pretty close to his actual value, but the raw numbers ($252 million, much like $300 million now, just sounds like an overpay) drove him out of Texas despite his otherworldly production—all in the name of “financial flexibility.” Forget his on-the-field production.

His contract was perceived to be so large that the Yankees essentially got him for free—again, think about how lopsided this deal truly was on the field—and got Texas to cover a significant portion of the contract. He was paid to go away, and all the while he was as productive and dominant as any player in league history.

What A-Rod’s story tells us is that it’s not really about the production on the field after all. If it was, the Rangers would never have traded him, the league wouldn’t have reacted harshly to his signing and the Yankees would never have been able to acquire him. Actually spending money is far worse than having “flexibility” to do so at some undisclosed point in the future, even when a player is clearly worth the money. The league’s frantic reaction to Rodriguez’s deal, and the media’s complicity, drove Texas to pay for him to go away, cementing a narrative that the league’s biggest stars can’t possibly be worth their (seemingly) gargantuan contracts.

The echos of this are still heard in the current labor market as it relates to top players, and, as it always was in baseball, Rodriguez is at the center.

The league will stop at nothing to maximize its own profit and reinvest as little as possible back into its players, and exceptions cause an outcry. The Rangers buckled under the weight of league scrutiny, but the Yankees were happy to be the exception that proved the rule in 2004. It would be nice to see them do so again.

The Yankees and the Myth of the Onerous Long-Term Contract

February 2, 2019 by Bobby Montano

The time for bad Spring Training photos is almost upon us, but 16 teams have not yet signed a free agent. Of those that have, 23 have not signed a player to a contract longer than two years—only 10 out of 77 players who have inked a deal this offseason are guaranteed a job after the 2020 season. One common rationale for this phenomenon is that teams are wising up after decades of handing out long-term deals. That those deals are onerous for teams has become conventional in many baseball circles, but there’s only one small problem with that line of thinking: it’s completely wrong.

The Yankees are a useful case study here: They’re the richest franchise in the sport and have been at the center of some of the game’s richest contracts. It’s worth going through the 7 largest contracts in Yankee history (all of which come after 2001) and examining how each of those contracts actually worked out for the Bombers. Doing so puts to rest the idea that the Yankees have somehow suffered as a result of big spending.

7. Jason Giambi (7 years, $120 million)

The Yankees signed Jason Giambi after their 2001 World Series defeat—having bested Giambi’s Oakland A’s in consecutive ALDS—to replace the beloved Tino Martinez at first base. Giambi’s 7-year, $120 million contract is the 55^th largest of all-time and he more than lived up to his end of the bargain.

Across his seven years in pinstripes, the Giambino slugged .260/.404/521 (143 OPS+) with 209 home runs and 619 walks in 3,693 plate appearances. That he missed roughly half of the year with injury in both 2004 and 2008 limits his overall WAR total (22.1 by Baseball-Reference), but he was a 4 win player per 650 AB with the Yankees. Giambi was a lot more productive than he gets remembered for.

His early-season walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 14^th inning with the Yankees down 3 against the Minnesota Twins and two home runs off Pedro Martinez in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS are two of his more memorable moments. The Yankees never won a World Series while he was in town, so he is often forgotten among recent Yankee greats, but Giambi was a middle-of-the-order force on a team that went 680-455 (.599 winning percentage) during his tenure in the Bronx.

It’s safe to say that Giambi was worth every penny.

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153 million)

Jacoby Ellsbury penned a 7-year, $153 million deal with the Yanks fresh off a World Series victory with the rival Red Sox in 2013. He was only the 18^th player in MLB history to receive a contract worth over $150 million, and he was supposed to inject life into a dormant Yanks offense. But this one, as we all know, has not gone according to plan.

Ellsbury has missed considerable time due to injury and has been mostly bad when healthy. His .264/.330/.386 (95 OPS+) line with the New York is well-below what the Yankees hoped for, and he has only been worth 9 wins in pinstripes.

But it’s important to remember that Ellsbury was often injured and only infrequently an above-average hitter for Boston. Although the argument at the time was that speedy outfielders tended to have softer declines than many of their peers, it’s clear that he was never the player the Yanks expected. His 8-win MVP-runner-up 2011 season with Boston was clearly an outlier at the time and looks even more so now—this particular contract speaks more to an organizational failure by the Yankees than it does Ellsbury.

5. Masahiro Tanaka (7 years, $155 million + $20 million posting fee)

The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka a 7-year, $155 million contract just weeks after locking up Ellsbury in a series of moves that was meant to revitalize an aging, stale Yanks group. Tanaka, though, has clearly done his part at the top of the rotation.

Despite a dance with Tommy John, Tanaka has been a reliably above-average arm for the Yanks. He owns a 64-34 (.653) record, posting a 3.59 ERA (118 ERA+) with 9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 824.1 innings pitched (15.6 bWAR) since the start of 2014. He may seemingly always give up a home run, but that should not detract from the fact that the Yankees are lucky to have him take the mound every five days.

A fierce competitor, Tanaka has been lockdown in October, with a 1.50 ERA in 30 innings pitched. His 7 shutout innings against the Cleveland Indians in Game 3 of the 2017 ALDS quite literally saved the season, he was lockdown in both his ALCS starts against the Houston Astros, and he was the only Yankee to win a postseason game this year against Boston. If it’s a big game, you feel comfortable with Tanaka on the mound—and it’s clear that the Yankees shouldn’t regret his deal.

4. CC Sabathia (7 years, $160 million)

The Yankees gave Sabathia a 7-year, $160 million contract following their disappointing 2008 campaign and Sabathia’s legendary one, and he would eventually leveraged an opt-out into what amounted to a 2-year extension following 2011. CC was expected to be the type of ace to carry the Yanks back to the promised land. He did just that in his first try, and he has become one of the most beloved Yankees of the current generation in the process.

CC owns a 129-80 (.617) record with the Yanks, powered by a 3.74 ERA (115 ERA+) in 1,810.2 innings pitched. He’s been worth 30 bWAR, and only 9 pitchers in Yankee history will have won more games in pinstripes than CC when all is said and done.

I wrote all about CC Sabathia last week, so I’ve said about all I can say about him, but one thing is clear: the Yankees absolutely do not regret allowing him to call the Bronx home for final 11 seasons of his Hall of Fame career.

3. Mark Teixeira (8 years, $180 million)

Teixeira’s shocking 8-year, $180 million contract came on a day when most of us expected him to sign with the Red Sox. Instead, the Yanks swooped in and found Jason Giambi’s replacement. Teixeira was a 3-win player per 650 ABs across his 8 years in pinstripes but saw his final few years plagued by frequent injury.

Still, Teixeira hit .248/.343/.479 (118 OPS+) with 206 home runs across 3,522 plate appearances with New York, averaging 35 home runs every 162 games. Teixeira was also a sterling defender at first base, thrice winning the Gold Glove in pinstripes.

His huge 2009 campaign, in which he slugged .292/.383/.565 (141 OPS+) with 39 home runs, netted him 2^nd place in the AL MVP voting, and his 11^th inning walk-off home run against the Twins in Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS was a key moment in the Yanks’ World Series run. Teixeira made the Yankees better for the better part of 8 years, and he was an instrumental player on a 103-win championship team. Big free agent signings are supposed to help you win World Series, and Teixeira did just that. The Yankees should not regret this one either.

2. Derek Jeter (10 years, $189 million)

Derek Jeter inked his first major deal following the 2001 campaign, receiving almost $200 million across 10 years. This one’s easy: a first ballot Hall of Famer and all-time great Yankee, there is no doubt that the Jeter deal made the Yankees a better team.

Across the terms of this contract, Jeter hit .308/.378/.436 (115 OPS+) with 304 doubles and 141 home runs, overall totaling 37.5 bWAR. Jeter was a part of too many big Yankee moments to name, but his 3,000 hit off David Price and July 1, 2004 catch against Boston in which he flew into the stands stick out as two of his top moments over this deal. Jeter is one of the best players in baseball history, in the conversation for the best shortstop ever, and the Yankees certainly don’t regret this deal in the slightest.

1. Alex Rodriguez (Two 10-year contracts)

Alex Rodriguez, were it not for Barry Bonds, might just be the most controversial baseball player in league history. Under constant media scrutiny over his love life, relationship with the Yankee captain and former friend Derek Jeter, steroid usage and at-times contentious relationship with the league and organization, A-Rod divided baseball (and Yankee fans) as nobody else could. But amid the noise, one thing is clear: Rodriguez was worth the money.

A-Rod signed two major deals in his career, and the Yankees were at the center of both. For the purposes of this exercise, let’s analyze the two separately.

10-year, $252 million contract (Offered by the Texas Rangers, Yankee from 2004-07)

By far the largest contract ever handed out at the time, the first A-Rod deal is often pointed to as an example of big contracts gone awry. That is absurd. I repeat: that is absurd.

A-Rod was simply nothing less than one of the most productive baseball players in baseball history across his first 10-year deal, slugging .304/.400/.591 (154 OPS+) with 329 home runs, 3 MVPs, 7 ASGs and 56.4 bWAR. (For perspective, Bernie Williams was worth 49 bWAR in his entire career.) If anything, this deal was a bargain for both Texas and New York.

For the Yankees, his three-home run, 10 RBI performance against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and towering walk-off grand slam against the Indians as the Yanks scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 9^th (all with two outs) stand out as signature moments during this stretch.

Although the Yankees only rostered Rodriguez on this deal for the 2004-7 campaigns, he managed to win 2 MVPs and smash 173 home runs in four years. He was blamed for the Yanks’ failure to win the World Series and often caught the ire of fans, but it’s clear that expecting more (on-the-field, anyway) from Alex Rodriguez was unrealistic. He was as good as you can be.

10-year, $275 million contract (Offered by Yankees following A-Rod’s 2007 opt-out)

The second A-Rod deal, on the other hand, is much more complicated. It was the last time we saw Hank Steinbrenner, and this mega-deal came even as Brian Cashman publicly said the organization would let Rodriguez walk if he opted out. Instead, A-Rod opted out during the final game of the 2007 World Series to much outcry, and the Yankees re-signed him anyway. While A-Rod wasn’t the same player at the end of this deal, he was comfortably above-average the whole time. Not to mention, the Yanks wouldn’t have won the 2009 World Series without him, and they’d never have been able to replace him.

The Yankees were scuffling a bit amid huge expectations in April of 2009, and the Yanks were without their injured (and recently scandalized) All-Star third baseman. When he returned in early May, he slugged a three-run home run in Camden Yards in his first at-bat and the Yankees never looked back. A-Rod hit 30 home runs and drove in 100 runs despite missing over a month, and was absolutely an essential component of the Yankees postseason run.

His 2-run, game-tying home run off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the 9^th of Game 2 of the 2009 ALDS is one of the defining moments of that era, but he also hit the go-ahead home run in Game 3, hit another game-tying home run in extra innings in the Game 2 of the ALDS and had the go-ahead hit in the top of the 9th inning of Game 4 of the World Series to give the Yanks a 3-1 lead. Without A-Rod, there’s no 2009 title. It’s that simple.

Despite the fact that the second contract was scandalized by more steroid allegations, a lawsuit against the Yankees, and a full-season suspension, A-Rod actually hit .269/.359/.486 (123 OPS+) with 178 home runs over those final years, and had one final great campaign in 2015. Even during his down years, A-Rod was better than most other players in the league. Given his repaired relationship with the Yankees, it’s fair to say that the team and player have both moved on from any hostility—and fans should too.

Alex Rodriguez is the recipient of two of the most misunderstood contracts of all-time from a baseball perspective, and it’s time we all acknowledge a simple fact: he was well worth the money.

Special Mention: Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325 million)

Giancarlo Stanton received a 13-year, $325 million contract from the Miami Marlins in 2014, with the Yankees acquiring him following the 2017 campaign. It’s too early to say whether or not this deal will work out for New York, but the early indications are a resounding yes.

Across the first four years of the deal, Stanton has hit .265/.350/.557 (143 OPS+) and has hit 151 home runs. Even his relatively down year last year with the Yanks was extremely productive, and he figures to be a major force in the middle of the Yankee lineup for at least two more years, depending on whether or not he exercises his opt-out following the 2020 season (if I were him, I would not). More to come on this one, but if the recent history of large NYY contracts is any indication, they won’t regret this at all.

Conclusions

What this shows us is that the big, onerous contract that we hear so much about is largely a strawman: it barely exists. Of the 7 largest contracts in Yankee history, only one of them (Ellsbury) is a true albatross, and again, that speaks more to a failure by the Yankees than it reflects poorly on Ellsbury. He’s the same player he always was. In other words, 6 out of 7 (85%) have significantly improved the Yankees and made them a better team.

But there’s another key point buried in here. Most of these deals came in relatively close proximity to one another. The Yankees signed Giambi one year after giving Jeter his 10-year deal; they added Teixeira and Sabathia in the same offseason; they signed Tanaka and Ellsbury in the same offseason; they added Stanton despite having Ellsbury’s and Tanaka’s deals on the books, underscoring how the deal isn’t prohibitive at all. This tells us that fears that the Yankees cannot offer another long-term mega deal (or two!) if they want to re-sign their own developed core are unfounded. (Granted, the data has always shown that it was unfounded.)

Despite what we often year about large contracts and long-term financial obligations, the reality is that the Yankees simply haven’t suffered, financially or on-the-field, as a result of any of their major deals in the last 20 years. If anything, those deals are a major reason why the Yankees have not had a losing season since 1992—and the Yankees, and their fans, would be wise to remember that.

Poll: After Derek Jeter, who will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame?

January 24, 2019 by Mike

Mariano Rivera made history throughout his 19-year career and he made history again earlier this week, when he became the first ever unanimous selection to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. All 425 voters named him on their ballot. I didn’t think it would happen but it did, and it’s pretty awesome. Couldn’t pick a better player to be the first unanimous Hall of Famer.

Mike Mussina, Rivera’s teammate with the Yankees for eight years, was also voted into the Hall of Fame earlier this week. Mussina has not yet decided whether he’ll wear a Yankees hat or an Orioles hat on his Hall of Fame plaque, though he did have more wins (147 to 123), more innings (2,009.2 to 1,553), more All-Star appearances (five to zero), and more WAR (+47.8 to +35.2) with the O’s. Going in as an Oriole seems appropriate.

Derek Jeter joins the Hall of Fame ballot next year and, like Rivera, he is a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. He might even be unanimous! That would be fun, Rivera and Jeter being the first two unanimous Hall of Famers. Either way, Jeter is getting into the Hall of Fame next year. There’s no doubt about it. After that though, it might be a while until another Yankee gets voted into Cooperstown.

Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada have already dropped off the Hall of Fame ballot, having received less than the 5% needed to remain on the ballot another year. (Williams did spend two years on the ballot. Posada dropped off in year one.) Don Mattingly exhausted his 15 years on the ballot without being voted into the Hall of Fame. I suppose one of the eras committees could vote him in a la Harold Baines. We’ll see.

We know Jeter will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America. We don’t know who will be the next after that. Let’s go through the upcoming candidates, shall we? Here are the Yankees due to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in the coming years.

2020 ballot

Jeter is the big name here. He’s the only slam dunk Hall of Famer joining the ball next year. Also joining the ballot are former Yankees Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and Alfonso Soriano. Abreu has a stathead case for Cooperstown but, if he gets in, he’ll have a Phillies cap on his plaque. He played more games with the Phillies (1,353) than all other teams combined (1,072).

Giambi played more games with the Athletics (1,036) than the Yankees (897), plus he won an MVP and finished second in the MVP voting while with the A’s. Also, there’s the performance-enhancing drug thing. Giambi gave that vague apology for letting people down without ever saying what he did, but we all know what he was talking about. So many Hall of Fame voters are dug in against PEDs that, even if Giambi’s case were stronger than it actually is, I still don’t think he’d get in.

Soriano played more games with the Cubs (889) than the Yankees (626) but he had some of his best seasons in pinstripes. He led the league in hits (209) and homers (41) in 2002 and finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting and third in the MVP voting while with the Yankees. Soriano’s best season, his 40/40 season (46 homers and 41 steals) came with the Nationals in 2006.

I don’t think Giambi has a chance at the Hall of Fame because of the PED stuff. Abreu and Soriano strike me as Hall of Very Good players rather than Hall of Famers, and hey, there’s nothing wrong with that. They had great careers and made tons of dough. Also, we’re looking for the next Yankee Hall of Famer here, and I don’t think Giambi, Abreu, or Soriano would have a Yankees hat on his Hall of Fame plaque even if they get in. They did more with other teams.

The best player with a chance to go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee next year other than Jeter is Andy Pettitte. Pettitte was on the ballot for the first time this year and he received only 9.9% of the vote. He’s much, much closer to falling off the ballot than he is getting the 75% needed for induction into Cooperstown. It took Mussina six years on the ballot to get into the Hall of Fame. I have to think it’ll take Pettitte at least that long, if not longer to gain induction.

2021 ballot

There are no slam dunk Hall of Famers set to join the ballot in 2021, Yankees or otherwise. The best players joining the ballot are probably Tim Hudson and Mark Buehrle. The best former Yankees set to join the ballot are A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher. Next.

2022 ballot

Now we’re talking. Alex Rodriguez joins the ballot in three years and his career was very obviously worthy of the Hall of Fame. There’s no arguing with the raw numbers. A-Rod is one of the 10-15 best players in the game’s history and, if you take his career at face value, he should be a unanimous selection. You can’t take his career at face value though. Rodriguez admitted to using PEDs and served a year-long suspension for a separate PED transgression.

If Barry Bonds and Rogers Clemens do not get into the Hall of Fame, A-Rod has little hope of getting in. The voting body is skewing younger and thus more forgiving of PEDs, but so many voters are dug in on this subject and will not change their minds. Jeff Passan recently spoke to voters who do not vote for Bonds or Clemens and it’s clear where they stand. Bonds and Clemens have seen their support plateau in recent years. It would take a sea change in the Hall of Fame voting for them to get in before their eligibility expires in three years.

In the unlikely event he does get voted into Cooperstown, it’s safe to assume A-Rod would go in as a Yankee. He played more games as a Yankee (1,509) than he did as a Mariner and Ranger combined (1,275), plus he won two MVPs in pinstripes and his World Series ring. More games, more homers (351 to 345), more hardware, more rings as a Yankee than everywhere else combined. Should he get in — assuming Rodriguez stays on the ballot all ten years, his final year of eligibility will be 2031, which is a looong ways away — A-Rod would go in as a Yankee.

The other notable former Yankee joining the ballot in three years is Mark Teixeira. My hunch is that, if Fred McGriff was unable to get into the Hall of Fame, Teixeira won’t get in either. Teixeira did hit 409 homers and he led the league in homers and total bases once (39 and 344 in 2009, respectively), but that’s pretty much it. Teixeira did play more games as a Yankee (958) than as a Ranger, Brave, and Angel combined (904), so if he gets into the Hall of Fame, I think he’d go in as a Yankee. I’m just not sure he’s getting in.

2023 ballot

The only serious Hall of Fame candidate joining the ballot in four years is Carlos Beltran. I think he’ll get into Cooperstown. If not on the first ballot, than eventually. Beltran is an unlikely candidate to be the next Yankee in the Hall of Fame simply because he played the bulk of his career elsewhere. Only 341 of his 2,586 career games came in pinstripes, or 13.2%. I guess Beltran would go into the Hall of Fame as a Royal or Met? Either way, it won’t be as a Yankee, so Beltran’s not the answer to our question.

2024 ballot

Players who retired following last season will be eligible for Hall of Fame induction in 2024. That means Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, and David Wright. They combined for zero (0) games as a Yankee. Matt Holliday and Curtis Granderson could also join the Hall of Fame ballot in five years if they fail to find work this winter. Holliday spent one kinda crummy year with the Yankees. He’d go in as a Rockie or Cardinal. Granderson had some of his best seasons in pinstripes but played more games with the Tigers (674) and Mets (573) than the Yankees (513). Love the Grandyman but I don’t see him as a serious Hall of Fame candidate.

Active players

Ichiro Suzuki is a clear cut Hall of Famer and he’s going in as a Mariner, as he should. That leaves two active players who spend the bulk of their careers with the Yankees and deserve serious Hall of Fame consideration: Robinson Cano and CC Sabathia. This offseason’s trade ensures Cano would go into Cooperstown as a Yankee. He’ll split the second half of his career between (at least) two teams, meaning he won’t be able to accomplish enough with the Mariners to change his legacy from Yankees great to Mariners great.

Cano of course served a PED suspension last year, which likely ruins his chances at the Hall of Fame. Manny Ramirez has no-doubt Hall of Fame credentials, but, because he served two PED suspensions, he hasn’t topped 24% of the vote in his three years on the Hall of Fame ballot. Cano is closing in on 3,000 hits and Jeff Kent’s home run record for second basemen. Robbie’s the best second baseman of his generation. The suspension means he has a tough hill to climb.

Assuming Cano finishes out the final five years on his contract, that means he’s ten years away from appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot and 20 years away from exhausting his ten years on the ballot. We could still be talking about Robbie being on the ballot as a potential Hall of Famer in 2038! That’s an awfully long way away, man. The voting body can and will change between now and then, and a PED suspension may not be as much of a dealbreaker then as it is now. We’ll see.

Sabathia has more wins (129 to 117) and more starts (284 to 254) as a Yankee than he did as an Indian and Brewer combined, though he has slightly less WAR (+29.7 to +32.5). Also, Sabathia won his Cy Young in Cleveland and split 2008, his best individual season, between the Indians and Brewers. He won his World Series ring (and ALCS MVP) as a Yankee and has three top four finishes in the Cy Young voting in pinstripes. At some point this year he’ll record his 250th win and 3,000th strikeout, which is pretty cool.

I believe Sabathia would have a Yankees hat on his Hall of Fame plaque. The real question is whether he gets into Cooperstown. Mussina was an objectively better pitcher and he had to wait six years on the ballot to get in. Pettitte was a notch below Sabathia but he has the whole legacy Yankee thing going for him, and he didn’t come close to induction this year. (Pettitte is an admitted human growth hormone user though.) Sabathia will retire after this season and that means he’ll hit the Hall of Fame ballot in 2025. If he gets into the Hall of Fame, it’ll probably take several years on the ballot a la Mussina (and Pettitte).

Looking more long-term, Giancarlo Stanton is on a potential Hall of Fame track seeing how he’s at 300 homers and +40 WAR through his age 28 season. Five-hundred homers and +65 WAR is well within reach. Aroldis Chapman is like 60% of the way to Billy Wagner’s career at this point and Wagner hasn’t come close to induction yet, so Chapman has an uphill climb. Aaron Judge was a bit of a late-bloomer (he played his first MLB season at age 25), which puts him behind the Hall of Fame eight-ball. Gary Sanchez? Gleyber Torres? Miguel Andujar? Luis Severino? Great talents who are a long, long way from the Cooperstown combination.

What about Dellin Betances? He is the best setup man of his generation (yup) and it’s possible that, by time he’s eligible to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot, the voters may have very different standards for relief pitchers. As long as Wagner stays so far away from induction — this was Wagner’s fourth year on the ballot and he’s yet to receive even 17% of the vote — I can’t see Betances as a serious Hall of Fame candidate. Gosh, it would be fun though, wouldn’t it?

* * *

We know Jeter will be voted into the Hall of Fame next year. That is a certainty. The next Yankee to go into the Hall of Fame after Jeter is up in the air, largely because A-Rod and Cano have served PED suspensions, which significantly lowers their chances of winding up in Cooperstown. Since we’re here, we might as well turn this into a poll, so let’s get to it.

Who will be the next Yankee voted into the Hall of Fame after Jeter?

Saturday Links: Donaldson Trade, A-Rod, Luxury Tax Payroll

September 15, 2018 by Mike

The final homestand of the 2018 regular season continues later today with the middle game of the three-game series against the Blue Jays. That’s a 4:05pm ET start. Here are some links and notes to check out in the meantime.

Yankees among teams upset about Donaldson trade

According to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Yankees are among the teams to reach out to MLB to voice displeasure with the Josh Donaldson trade. Specifically, they are unhappy Donaldson was deemed healthy enough to be placed on trade waivers, only to have the Indians place him right back on the disabled list right after the trade. Rosenthal says the Red Sox and Astros also weren’t happy with the deal. The teams that might face Cleveland in the postseason, basically.

Players have to be on the active roster or on a minor league rehab assignment to be placed on trade waivers. Donaldson had been out since May with a calf injury, then conveniently started a rehab assignment a few days before the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. He cleared waivers, was activated, then was traded and put right back on the disabled so he could play more rehab games. Fishy. That said, the Yankees (and Red Sox and Astros) would’ve done the same thing in a heartbeat. Don’t like it? Then you should’ve claimed Donaldson on trade waivers to block a deal. (Donaldson went unclaimed, so he was free to be traded anywhere.)

A-Rod hoping for Hall of Fame call

We are three years away from Alex Rodriguez’s name appearing on the Hall of Fame ballot, and, when the time comes, he hopes to get into Cooperstown. Can’t say I’m surprised. A-Rod spoke about about his Hall of Fame hopes during a recent feature with, uh, Cigar Aficionado? Cigar Aficionado. Here’s a partial transcript of the video:

“There’s rules, and you have to follow the rules. I made those mistakes, and at the end of the day I have to live by those mistakes. Whether I get in or not — and let’s be clear, I want to get in, I hope I get in, I pray I get in — if I don’t, I think I have a bigger opportunity yet again. And the platform of my mistakes, the good the bad and the ugly, has allowed me to have a loud voice to the next generation, to say when in doubt, just look at my career … The other message is, maybe I’m not a Hall of Fame player, but I get a chance to be a Hall of Fame dad, a Hall of Fame friend.”

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have made some gains on the Hall of Fame ballot in recent years, though they’re still well short of induction, and neither guy served a year-long performance-enhancing drug suspension like A-Rod. Rodriguez hits the ballot in 2021 and he can remain on the ballot ten years. That’s a long time — he can potentially remain on the ballot until 2031 — and lots of minds can change. Right now, I don’t think he’ll get in. Come 2031? Who knows.

Should A-Rod ever make the Hall of Fame, he’d have to go in as a Yankee, right? He played more games with the Yankees (1,509) than the Mariners and Rangers combined (1,275). Same deal with homers (351 vs. 345), though not WAR (+54.2 vs. +63.6). Also, Rodriguez won two of his three MVPs in New York and also his only World Series ring. Yeah, he’d had to go in as a Yankee. No question.

Yankees on track to stay under luxury tax threshold

According to Ronald Blum, the Yankees are indeed on track to stay under the $197M luxury tax threshold this season. I’ve been doing my best to keep tabs on the team’s luxury tax payroll situation all season, and I’m glad to have some confirmation. I had the payroll at $191.8M (without bonuses) in my last estimate. Blum’s source in the commissioner’s office has the payroll at $192.1M. I’m quite proud my estimate is within half-a-million bucks.

The Yankees will have to pay out some playing time bonuses (CC Sabathia’s innings, Neil Walker’s plate appearances, etc.), plus Chance Adams was called up two days ago, and that adds to the luxury tax payroll. Even with all that, they have plenty of room to get under the threshold. Blum says the Red Sox ($238.4M payroll) and Nationals ($203.9M) are the only teams over the luxury tax threshold this year. The Dodgers, like the Yankees, trimmed payroll this year to get under the threshold.

Saturday Links: Jeter, A-Rod, Forbes Franchise Values

April 14, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees and Tigers were rained out today, and there’s a pretty good chance they’ll get rained out tomorrow too. The weather forecast in Detroit doesn’t look good at all. Here, to help you pass the time during this sudden Yankees baseball-less day, are some links and notes to check out.

Jeter skipping Yankees-Marlins series

The rebuilding Miami Marlins will be in the Bronx this week to play a quick two-game series Monday and Tuesday, but minority owner Derek Jeter will not make the trip, according to Joe Frisaro. Jeter told Frisaro he’s not making the trip because going to Yankee Stadium will be awkward. From Frisaro:

“I’m not going. I just want to let everybody know, I’m not going to New York. I went to the Spring Training game when we played New York. But it would be an awkward situation for me to actually go to Yankee Stadium. I’m just being honest with you guys. That’s why I’m not going. I knew it was going to be a story, one way or the other. So, I might as well get out in front of it and say, I’m not going. So, I will not be there.”

The Yankees will make a two-game trip to Miami later this season, and I imagine Jeter will be in the house for that. I wonder how long it’ll be until it’s not awkward for Jeter to come back to Yankee Stadium? Never is a long time. I’m sure it’ll happen at some point. Plenty of others have gone on to other teams and returned for Old Timers’ Day, for example. (Not as an owner though.) Jeter knows the Yankees enhance his personal #brand. I doubt he’ll cut ties completely.

A-Rod talked to Dodgers in 2007

Earlier this week Alex Rodriguez made some headlines when, on an ESPN broadcast, he said he wishes he would’ve signed with the Mets back during the 2000-01 offseason rather than the Rangers. Jon Heyman has a follow up column with a few fun notes. Two stand out in particular:

Brian Cashman and Scott Boras were discussing an eight-year extension worth $235M before A-Rod opted out in 2007. That would’ve added five new years on top of his existing contract.
After exercising the opt-out, Boras and the Dodgers were discussing a potential $320M contract over an unknown number of years.

After A-Rod opted out in 2007, it was widely reported Cashman wanted the Yankees to walk away, but ownership stepped in and re-signed him to his then record ten-year, $270M deal. That Dodgers deal would’ve been a total disaster given what he know now. A-Rod’s hip broke down and they don’t have a DH spot. Assuming that $320M deal covered ten years, Rodriguez would’ve become the first $30M a year player in history, beating Clayton Kershaw by seven years.

Yankees again ranked as most valuable MLB franchise

Once again, the Yankees are the most valuable franchise in baseball according to Forbes. Forbes has compiling franchise valuations for 21 years now and the Yankees have been atop the list every year. The Yankees are valued at $4 billion, up from $3.7 billion last year. Their revenue is estimated at $619M, but their operating income is a mere $14M. Here are the most valuable franchises:

1. Yankees: $4 billion
2. Dodgers: $3 billion
3. Cubs: $2.9 billion
4. Giants: $2.85 billion
5. Red Sox: $2.8 billion
…
29. Marlins: $1 billion
30. Rays: $900M

The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is the same as the gap between No. 2 and No. 7. The Yankees are truly in a world of their own among the 30 MLB franchises.

As noted in the Forbes piece, the Yankees generate roughly 20% more revenue than any other team thanks to the YES Network, the still new ballpark, and other side ventures like Legends Hospitality. The average MLB franchise is worth $1.645 billion these days, which is ridiculous. The Marlins sold for $1.2 billion last year. Imagine what a mid-range franchise could go for on the open market.

A-Rod rejoins Yankees, Nick Swisher added as special advisor

February 25, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Alex Rodriguez is back with the Yankees. So is Nick Swisher. This morning the Yankees announced A-Rod, Hideki Matsui, and Reggie Jackson are returning to the Yankees as special advisors to Brian Cashman, and Swisher has been hired in the same capacity. I imagine this means A-Rod will be in camp at some point.

“These are exciting times for the New York Yankees, and I do not take his opportunity for granted,” said Rodriguez in a statement. “I am genuinely thankful for the trust the organization has placed in me, and I am looking forward to lending whatever support or expertise is needed of me. I continue to cherish The Pinstripes, the fans and my involvement with the Steinbrenner family, Brian Cashman, and his world-class staff.”

Matsui and especially Reggie have been special advisors for years now. They just have new contracts. Rodriguez had served as a special advisor after being released in August 2016 through the end of his player contract in 2017. Hal Steinbrenner said a few weeks ago he was talking to Alex about bringing him in back in some capacity.

As for Swisher, he announced his retirement last February and is getting back into baseball after the proverbial year away from the game. He helped out during Captain’s Camp and is in Spring Training as a guest instructor. Now he has a full-time front office gig with the Yankees. How about that?

In the past A-Rod, Matsui, and Reggie worked primarily on the minor league side, traveling to the various affiliates to work with prospects. I imagine Swisher will do the same as well. The Yankees offered Carlos Beltran a special advisor job earlier this offseason, but he opted to step away and spend a year with his family.