Wilmer Flores Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Free Agent Market: The Non-Tendered Players

December 3, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

With Friday’s deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players firmly in the rearview mirror, a slew of viable free agents have hit the market. There are no stars, to be sure, but there’s a little bit of everything to be had amongst the forty-plus players that are now available for nothing more than cash. With that in mind, I will profile some of the players that could conceivably make sense for the Yankees, based upon their current stated and positional needs. And, given just how many names there are on this list, I decided to put them in alphabetical order instead of trying to sort by preference.

Please note that I’m providing the arbitration projection for each player in place of a salary estimate. The reason for this is that I’m operating under the assumption that many of these players were shopped in the hopes of getting something in return, but they couldn’t find any takers – so none of these guys are likely to start a bidding war, and will likely earn a bit less than they would’ve through arbitration.

Luis Avilan, LHRP

The rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 29
2018 Stats – 45.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 9.1 BB%, 3.77 ERA, 3.09 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $3.1 MM
Years of Control – 1

Avilan has been a relatively consistent lefty-specialist for seven years now, holding LHH to a sub-.700 OPS in six of those years. Same-handed hitters hit just .217 against him last year, which is right in-line with his career norm of .210. He’s not flashy, and he’s a liability against righties – but he could more than adequately fill a role in any team’s bullpen. The only red flag here is his velocity, which slipped by over 1 MPH in 2018; lefty specialists aren’t always known for their stuff, but a dip of that magnitude is never a good sign.

Whether Avilan makes sense for the Yankees is kind of up in the air, as is the case with every other reliever on this list. If the team wants to strengthen its bullpen, there are certainly better options out there; but, if there’s a budget in-play, Avilan is a solid option.

Tim Beckham, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 29
2018 Stats – .230/.287/.374, 12 HR, 1 SB, 79 wRC+ in 402 PA
Arbitration Projection – $4.3 MM
Years of Control – 2

Beckham will never overcome the bust label that has been firmly affixed for half a decade now, but he was a solid utility infielder in 2016 and 2017. He played more than passable defense at second, third, and short, and was a league-average hitter in both seasons; he showed flashes of more than that after being dealt to the Orioles at the 2017 trade deadline, as well. But, alas, 2018 was his worst big league season on offense and defense. His walk and strikeout rates trended in the right direction, but not significantly so – and that was about it.

So why is he here? Put simply, the Yankees need infield depth and Beckham has played all four positions. And he’s played them well at times, to boot. Even with the bust designation, he had three years of solid utility work and he’s still in what should be the prime of his career – so it wouldn’t be shocking if he could get back to that level. It’s not glamorous, but there’s value in a utility infielder that can swing a league-average bat.

Justin Bour, 1B/DH

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 30
2018 Stats – .227/.341/.404, 20 HR, 2 SB, 107 wRC+ in 501 PA
Arbitration Projection – $5.2 MM
Years of Control – 2

I wrote about Brandon Belt – who is owed over $50 MM over the next three years – a few weeks ago, and discussed how often worthwhile first base options are available. I bring that up now because Bour (119 wRC+) and Belt (122) have had almost identical production over the last three years, and Bour was just non-tendered by a team that fancies itself a contender. Bour is coming off of the worst season of his career by wRC+, but he posted a career-best 14.6% walk rate and still socked 20 dingers. You could do a great deal worst at first, and the Yankees largely have post-Teixeira.

Bour makes sense as a target if the Yankees are moving on from Greg Bird. And, given that he’s best-suited as the larger side of a platoon (he had a 123 wRC+ against RHP last year), he could work quite well with Luke Voit.

Brad Boxberger, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 30
2018 Stats – 53.1 IP, 30.2 K%, 13.2 BB%, 4.39 ERA, 4.55 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $4.9 MM
Years of Control – 1

Boxberger’s overall numbers don’t look terribly enticing; quite the opposite, actually (aside from the strikeouts). However, it’s worth noting that he, like seemingly everyone on the Diamondbacks, fell apart in September as the team slid out of contention. Heading into the final month of the season, Boxberger was sitting on a 3.45 ERA in 47.0 IP, with 33.8% strikeouts and 12.1% walks (as well as a 50% groundball rate). The walks are still high, but he was otherwise a rock solid closer until that horrendous month. And his number from the first five months of the season are right in-line with his career norms.

Relievers fall off of a cliff out of nowhere all the time, to be sure – but Boxberger has enough of a track record to suggest that his September was a slump. And I could see him being a legitimate weapon for whatever team signs him. I wouldn’t mind if that was the Yankees.

Matt Bush, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 23.0 IP, 17.6 K%, 13.0 BB%, 4.70 ERA, 5.29 FIP
Arbitration Projection – N/A
Years of Control – 4

Bush is here purely as a buy-low candidate, and probably a minor league deal guy. He was excellent in 2016 and very good in 2017, but injuries and struggles helped him fall out of favor in Texas last year.

He’s also here because, even with the injuries, his fastball sat at 96 MPH last year, and his fastball spin rate ranks among the elite at 2550 RPM over the last three years. That’s the fourth-best spin rate among the 268 pitchers to throw at least 1000 fastballs since the beginning of 2016. Hell, it’s 15th among all pitchers with at least 100 fastballs thrown in that time. Bush has had injury issues and he’s not young, but there’s a lot to work with here.

Xavier Cedeno, LHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 33.1 IP, 24.3 K%, 11.4 BB%, 2.43 ERA, 2.95 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $1.5 MM
Years of Control – 1

Cedeno missed nearly all of 2017 with forearm soreness, but you wouldn’t know that from how well he performed in 2018. The walks are a bit high, but they’re balanced nicely by his strikeout rate and his ability to burn worms – he had a 54.4% groundball rate last year, which is in-line with his career rate of 50.9%. I kind of buried the lede here, though, as Cedeno’s another lefty specialist. Though, he’s more effective against lefties than Avilan, and may therefore make more sense in a highly-specialized bullpen.

Mike Fiers, RHSP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 172.0 IP, 19.5 K%, 5.2 BB%, 3.56 ERA, 4.75 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $9.7 MM
Years of Control – 1

Fiers has carved out a respectable career as a league-average starter in nearly 900 IP. He has been incredibly inconsistent from year-to-year, though; to wit, his ERAs over the last four years are 3.69, 4.48, 5.52, and 3.56. His FIPs follow the same pattern, as do his strikeouts, walks, and home runs. In short, you never know what you’re getting with Fiers (aside from high home run rates – it’s just a matter of how high). That being said, he’s also a guy that’s made at least 28 starts in four straight seasons, and has value as a back-end starter that could give you a bit more.

He’s low on the list of pitchers that I’d like to see the Yankees look at should other options fall through, but I could see Fiers making sense; but he’s something like the tenth best starting pitcher on the market.

Wilmer Flores, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 27
2018 Stats – .267/.319/.417, 11 HR, 0 SB, 103 wRC+ in 429 PA
Arbitration Projection – $4.7 MM
Years of Control – 1

It seems like Flores has been around forever, doesn’t it? I suppose being a three-time top-hundred prospect and making your MLB debut at 21 will do that.

Flores was a solid utility player for the Mets over the last four years, sitting a tick above league-average with the bat and providing acceptable glovework at first, second, and third. He’s a high-contact hitter, striking out in just 9.8% of his PA last year, and he has enough pop to drive pitches over the fence to all fields. He’s probably no better than average in any facet of the game, but, aside from a lack of walks (6.8% last year), he doesn’t really have a glaring weakness.

If the Yankees are looking for a temporary placeholder at second with the hopes of him moving to the bench when Didi Gregorius returns, the could do a heck of a lot worse than Flores.

Dan Jennings, LHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 31
2018 Stats – 64.1 IP, 16.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 3.22 ERA, 4.09 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $1.6 MM
Years of Control – 1

Hey, it’s another lefty specialist! Or, maybe not, depending on how much stock you put in recency bias. Over the course of his career, Jennings has had a minimal platoon split, holding lefties to a .296 wOBA and righties to a .317 wOBA. He’s been deployed largely as a match-up guy, but he’s face more righties than lefties owing to the fact that his managers have been comfortable leaving him in to face more than one good lefty. Last year, however, Jennings was battered by righties, allowing a .310/.399/.528 slash line. Ouch.

Guys like Jennings who rely on grounders (55.4% for his career) are scary in Yankee Stadium – but if the team’s looking for a specialist, he makes sense.

Blake Parker, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 33
2018 Stats – 66.1 IP, 25.4 K%, 6.9 BB%, 3.26 ERA, 4.40 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $3.1 MM
Years of Control – 2

I was kind of surprised to see Parker non-tendered, as he was very good for the Angels over the last two years. The only black mark was a 1.63 HR/9 last season, which should be neither overlooked nor harped upon. Parker’s not the bullpen ace that he looked like for most of 2017, but he feels like the type of free agent that will get a great deal less than similar players due to the lack of name value and stigma of the non-tender.

A reunion with the Yankees could make sense, with the hopes that his home run rates normalize of course.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 27
2018 Stats – .233/.266/.416, 21 HR, 1 SB, 80 wRC+ in 501 PA
Arbitration Projection – $10.1 MM
Years of Control – 1

Schoop reminds me a bit of Starlin Castro, in that the obvious talent is there, but always feels just out of reach. The 27-year-old has big-time power and athleticism, but he’s among the most impatient hitters in the game, with a swing percentage that’s nearly 10 percentage points above league-average. That worked well in his career-best 2017, when he posted a 122 wRC+, and found him wanting in 2018. The power’s undoubtedly there, and he’s an average defender at second – but Schoop will only go as far as his BABIP takes him.

If you look at his average season, Schoop makes sense as a stop-gap second baseman. Without much in the way of versatility, though, I don’t like the fit.

Matt Shoemaker, RHSP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 31.0 IP, 25.4 K%, 7.7 BB%, 4.94 ERA, 3.35 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $4.3 MM
Years of Control – 2

Shoemaker missed most of 2017 and 2018 with nerve issues in his forearm that required two separate surgeries. That’s scary. And yet there’s a silver lining, as he returned to make six starts in September, with his stuff fully intact. His 4.94 ERA is ugly, but Shoemaker racked up strikeouts and limited walks, and looked entirely like the pitcher he had been prior to his forearm problems. Granted, that means he’s been a largely back-end starter, not unlike the aforementioned Mike Fiers – but, as I’ve said before, there’s value in that.

I prefer Shoemaker to Fiers, if the Yankees have the need to deep-dive into this end of the starting pitching pool. But both should be essentially considered emergency options.

Yangervis Solarte, IF

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 31
2018 Stats – .226/.277/.378, 17 HR, 1 SB, 77 wRC+ in 506 PA
Arbitration Projection – $5.9 MM
Years of Control – 1

Full disclosure: I’m only including Solarte because he’s been bandied about a bit on Yankees Twitter. I’m not sure if that’s because he’s a former Yankee, but he has slipped as a hitter and defender in back-to-back years, and doesn’t strike me as the type of player in-line for a big bounce-back season.

Alex Wilson, RHRP

The Rundown:

Age as of 4/1/19 – 32
2018 Stats – 61.2 IP, 17.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 3.36 ERA, 4.28 FIP
Arbitration Projection – $2.8 MM
Years of Control – 1

Wilson has been a steady albeit unspectacular reliever for four-plus years now, plying his trade by avoiding walks and keeping the ball on the ground (49.2% grounders in 2018). He’s something of an interesting case in terms of approach, as he throws three pitches, and they’re all fastballs – a four-seamer, a sinker, and a cutter, to be more specific. Wilson mixes it up by changing his usage rate of all three from game-to-game, and it’s been enough to keep hitters off-balance so far. Whether or not that would work in a more hitter-friendly park is up in the air.

Mailbag: Rollins, Perkins, Kahnle, Nuno, 80 Tools

March 21, 2014 by Mike 38 Comments

Huge mailbag this week. Nine questions and nearly 2,000 words. Use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything throughout the week.

Terry asks: With Jimmy Rollins seeming fallen out of favor with Ryne Sandberg and the Phillies, do you think it would make sense to see if the Yankees to put together some sort of trade package together with Ichiro Suzuki being the centerpiece? Do you think he would be open to playing 2B? He’d have to be an upgrade over Brian Roberts and would allow him to become a role player. They could be held relatively healthy by splitting 2B and now there is a SS back up that can hit.

Rollins and Sandberg had a bit of a falling out earlier this spring — Sandberg benched him for four straight Spring Training games to send a message, believe it or not — and there has been some talk that the team may try to trade him. Rollins told Todd Zolecki the rumors don’t bother him though; he has 10-and-5 rights and can veto any trade. Maybe he’d be willing to accept a trade to join the veteran-laden Yankees, who knows. He wouldn’t be the first long-term someotherteam to do it (Ichiro and Lance Berkman).

There are four problems with the 35-year-old Rollins. One, he just isn’t that good of a hitter anymore, putting up a .252/.318/.348 (84 wRC+) line last season. Two, he has 0.1 career innings at second base (in 2002) and would have to learn the position on the fly. Three, he’s owed $11M this year and his $11M option for 2015 vests with only 434 plate appearances this season. Four, he’s kind of a jerk with a tendency to run his mouth (remember this?). The Yankees seem to actively avoid those players. Would he be an upgrade over Roberts? Probably. Is he worth the headache? Probably not.

Dan asks: What does the Glen Perkins extension mean for David Robertson? Also, why would the Twins sign him to that? They already had him for this season, next season, and a team option for 2016. Now they not only raised his salaries for the next three years, they guaranteed the team option and one additional year for $6.5m each.

That Perkins contract (four years, $22.175M with a club option) is a freakin’ steal. He’s a local guy from just outside the Twin Cities, so it definitely seems like he took a hometown discount. Perkins is an elite reliever and probably the second best lefty bullpener in the game behind Aroldis Chapman. Even if he slips and he becomes just a lefty specialist down the line, his highest annual salary during the life of this deal is $6.5M in both 2017 and 2018. That’s just about Boone Logan money.

Because he took such a big discount, Perkins’ extension doesn’t mean anything for Robertson. Robertson will make more this season ($5.125M) as a third year arbitration-eligible setup man than Perkins will as an All-Star closer both this year ($4.025M) and next ($4.65M). Perkins would have been a free agent this past offseason had he not signed his previous extension, and I’m guessing he would have gotten three or four years at $10-12M annually on the open market, even at age 31. Basically double his extension. The Twins did it because it was simply too good to pass up.

Chris asks: When will we know if the Yankees are going to get Tommy Kahnle back via the Rule 5 Draft process? I am hopeful that we will get him back, as he would seem to be a strong asset to have.

There is no set date for Rule 5 Draft players, they can be returned at any point between now (really the first day of Spring Training) and the final game of the regular season. I wrote our Rockies season preview at CBS (shameless plug) and their bullpen is pretty stacked. There’s no room for Kahnle unless someone else gets hurt or traded. He’s thrown 6.1 good innings this spring but nothing that leads you to believe he’s forcing his way into the team’s plans. If Kahnle doesn’t make the Rockies, he’ll have to clear waivers before being offered back to the Yankees. I’m not sure he’ll ever be anything more than an up-and-down arm without a big improvement in his command.

Mickey asks: Assuming things play out with Michael Pineda in the fifth spot and Vidal Nuno stretched out in AAA as the sixth starter, how many times could he be called up without passing through waivers this season and who would/could be sent down to accommodate such a move?

As many times as the team wants. Minor league options really refer to option years. Players get three of them (sometimes four for weird reasons), meaning they go back and forth between MLB and the minors in three different seasons without having to pass through waivers. The Yankees burned one of Nuno’s options last season but can still send him (or any of the other fifth starter candidates for that matter, they have at least one option left) up and down as much as they want in 2014. I suspect that last open bullpen spot will be a revolving door this year. It always is.

Bill asks: Is Francisco Cervelli more valuable to the team being their backup catcher to start the season, or as trade-bait for an upgrade elsewhere?

I think he’s more valuable to the Yankees. A week or two ago when we heard teams are scouting him, we also heard the likely return would be another out of options player. Nothing great. They won’t be able to flip him for Derek Jeter’s long-term replacement at shortstop or anything. Cervelli has hit this spring and he hit last year before getting hurt. With his trade value down, I think you take him into the season and see what happens. His trade value couldn’t drop much further, but if the bat is legit, it could go up quite a bit. Unless someone blows the team away with an offer (Chris Owings? Please? Maybe?), I’d hang onto Frankie.

Stephen asks: I noticed in your latest post on Jorge Mateo you mentioned he is an 80 runner on the 20-80 scale (that dude must be fast!). Is this common? Are there any (recent or not) Yankee prospects that rank 80 out of 80 on any tools? Was Randy Johnson’s slider an 80? Pedro Martinez’s change up? Etc?

There are a bunch of good primers on the 20-80 scouting scale out there, but here’s a good one from Prospect Insider. Long story short: 20 is terrible, 80 is elite, and 50 is average. Sometimes you’ll see half-grades like a 55 or 75 of whatever. 80s are very rare though and are not thrown around all that often.

Baseball America started including 20-80 grades for individual tools in their Prospect Handbook back in 2011, but for each organization’s top prospect only. Here are all the 80s:

2014: Rockies RHP Jonathan Gray’s fastball, Twins OF Byron Buxton’s speed and defense, Nationals RHP Lucas Giolito’s fastball
2013: Reds OF Billy Hamilton’s speed, Twins 3B Miguel Sano’s power, Pirates RHP Gerrit Cole’s fastball
2012: Angels OF Mike Trout’s speed, Giants OF Gary Brown’s speed, Cole’s fastball
2011: Reds LHP Aroldis Chapman’s fastball, Nationals OF Bryce Harper’s power and arm, Trout’s speed

The Yankees drafted both Gray (2011 tenth round) and Cole (2008 first round) but did not sign them, in case you forgot. /sobs

Anyway, that’s it. Fourteen 80 tools in four years worth of top prospects. Five tools per prospect and 30 prospects per year gives us 600 tools total, meaning 2.3% graded out at 80s. Sounds about right. Like I said, 80s are rare and saved for the truly elite. Also, I think it’s interesting that ten of those 14 tools above are speed or fastball, things that can be quantified with a stop watch and radar gun. Saying someone has an 80 hit tool or 80 changeup is much more subjective.

I can’t think of any recent Yankees farmhand with an 80 tool, except for Mateo, I guess. Baseball America had Jesus Montero with both 70 power and 70 hit in 2011, which is pretty close. Brett Gardner is much closer to 65-70 speed than 80. As for big leaguers, I think both Mariano Rivera and Greg Maddux had 80 command, though I am no scout. Barry Bonds had 80 power, Tony Gwynn had an 80 hit tool, Pedro’s changeup was probably an 80, ditto Randy Johnson’s slider. I remember reading a Keith Law post (or maybe it was one of his chats, I forget) saying Justin Verlander had an 80 fastball and 80 curveball during his peak.

I don’t believe there’s an 80 tool on the Yankees right now. Ichiro Suzuki used to be an 80 hitter, no doubt about that. Jacoby Ellsbury is more of a 70 runner than a true 80. Maybe Brian McCann’s pitch-framing is an 80? He’s excellent at it according to the various metrics, but those are still works in progress.

Frank asks: I see Bryan Mitchell is on the Scranton AAA roster. Seems somewhat surprising, so is he closer to the show than we were led to believe? Is it true that his “new” cutter has possibly propelled him to the top of the pitching prospect class?

I gotten a few questions like this. Don’t read anything into the level a player is assigned when he’s cut from big league camp. That’s only their Spring Training work group. They can be assigned to different levels before the start of the season and most of them well. Mitchell pitched well in camp and he does indeed have a new cutter, but he made only three starts at Double-A Trenton last season. That’s where he’ll head for the start of 2014.

Eric asks: Mason Williams for Wilmer Flores?

I think both teams would say no, actually. The Mets need infielders and Flores is their top MLB-ready youngster — they have him working out at short this spring, something he hasn’t done since 2011 — so I’m not sure they would give him up for a Double-A outfielder coming off a bad season, even if said outfielder’s ceiling is high. I think the Yankees would say no because it’s an underwhelming return for a guy who was arguably their top prospect 12 months ago. I’m skeptical of Flores because he spent parts of six seasons trying to get out of Single-A, and it wasn’t until he got to ultra-hitter friendly Triple-A Last Vegas last summer that he re-established himself as a prospect. Trading an outfield prospect for a young infielder makes sense, but I don’t think Flores would be the guy to target.

Jack asks: I don’t understand why Pineda is considered to have more “upside” than David Phelps inasmuch as at this point Phelps’ fastball is probably a couple ticks higher and his control is markedly better. While Pineda supposed has a better breaking pitch does that one factor offset Phelps’ advantages in velocity and control? At best/worst, their upsides are probably similar.

I disagree that Phelps’ fastball is a couple ticks higher — it definitely isn’t based on this spring alone — and that his control is better. What separated Pineda from most young pitchers was his ability to pound the zone and his throw strikes, something he’s done this spring following shoulder surgery. Their minor league walk rates are identical (2.1 vs. 2.2 BB/9) and Pineda has the advantage at the MLB level (2.9 vs. 3.5 BB/9), for what it’s worth. Pineda has more upside because he’s 28 months younger and because his slider is far better than anything Phelps throws. The shoulder injury might have knocked Pineda’s ultimate ceiling down a notch or three, but Phelps pretty much is what he is. That’s not to say he’s bad, just that he might not be anything more than a back-end arm. Just watch the two, the difference in upside is obvious. You can really dream on Pineda.