Spring Training has finally arrived. Pitchers and catchers report today with position players due to arrive Monday. Many Yankees have been working out in Tampa for a few days now, but today it’s official. Spring Training has begun. Aaron Boone will hold his annual start-of-spring press conference at 1:30pm ET and I assume YES will carry it. They usually do. It’ll probably stream on the official site as well. Here are some scattered thoughts on the first day of the new season.

1. I know I’ve been bitching and moaning all offseason, so I just want to take a second to say I am very excited for the upcoming season. (Yes, I can still get excited about baseball!) To me, this is the most talented Yankees roster of the last three years. All the top young players have arrived and have at least one big league season under their belt, Giancarlo Stanton is entering year two in pinstripes, and I’m looking forward to seeing how the Yankees help James Paxton get better. I thought some offseason moves were underwhelming (J.A. Happ over Patrick Corbin, DJ LeMahieu over Manny Machado, Zack Britton over David Robertson, etc.), though the Yankees have earned the benefit of the doubt, so let’s see what happens. Yeah, it stinks Didi Gregorius is injured, but what can you do. Injuries are part of baseball. Sir Didi missed a bunch of time in April 2017 (shoulder) and August/September 2018 (heel) and the Yankees survived. They’ll figure it out again. Will the Yankees win another 100 games this year? I dunno, that’s really hard. The 2017-18 Astros and 2004-05 Cardinals are the only teams with back-to-back 100-win seasons in the last 15 years. It’s possible the Yankees will be a better and deeper team than last season and still finish with fewer wins. Then again, so many teams are tanking that contenders will have inflated win totals to some extent. Either way, I’m glad the offseason is over (even though it’s not really over) and I can’t wait to see this roster on the field. I think this is the most talented Yankees roster since their resurgence and they are on the very short list (three or four teams) with a chance to win the World Series.

2. Spring Training performance has no predictive value because the competition is so uneven. A hitter could face a Cy Young candidate in his first at-bat and a Single-A kid in his second, and veterans often work on something specific (changeup, tracking pitches, etc.) rather than chase results. Spring performance is not predictive but I would not necessarily call it meaningless. Some players absolutely must perform in camp. You’re not going to win a bench job or that final bullpen spot while getting blasted each time out, you know? Greg Bird obviously needs a good Spring Training this year. Brian Cashman and the Yankees have said the first base job is Luke Voit’s to lose, as it should be, and Bird has zero chance of stealing it away without a strong camp. I’m not sure he’d get the job even with a good camp, but a bad camp would certainly disqualify him. Even if he doesn’t win the first base job, I imagine a strong spring would boost Bird’s confidence and maybe help push him in the right direction. Tommy Kahnle could use a good spring as well. With him, it’s not so much about the results as it is how he looks. Has the velocity returned? Or he is still putting everything he has into each pitch to get to 94 mph? Kahnle with a free and easy 97 mph heater would be a welcome sight in March. Don’t get too caught up in Spring Training results. They don’t tell us anything useful, by and large. Some players do need to have a good camp though, Bird and Kahnle chief among them.

3. For me, the best part of Spring Training is getting to see prospects and minor leaguers we otherwise won’t get to see during the summer. Chances are Estevan Florial is not getting called up this summer, so watch him in February and March while you can. This spring I think I’m most looking forward to seeing Albert Abreu. Here’s some video from last September:

I ranked Abreu as the eighth best prospect in the system last week, and if I had any faith in him staying healthy, I would’ve ranked him second. Abreu missed camp last year after having his appendix removed in February and he also missed time each of the last two seasons with elbow and lat trouble. The good news is Abreu was healthy enough to pitch in winter ball and he’s healthy now, so he should be a full participant in Spring Training. Staying healthy is proving to be a challenge and I think Abreu is heading for a career in the bullpen, where his raw stuff could make him a big impact guy. Maybe even someone who throws two innings at a time when he first breaks into the big leagues a la 2014 Dellin Betances and 2017 Chad Green. Abreu is on the 40-man roster and could get called up this year, but he’s barely pitched above High-A and anything more than a September call-up would surprise me. His coming out party could be scheduled for 2020. In that case, enjoy the Spring Training look while it lasts.

4. Alright, so who’s going to be That Guy in Spring Training? That random out-of-nowhere player who has a strong camp and gets people talking about him as an Opening Day roster candidate? Jon Weber in 2010 is the That Guy gold standard. He hit .452/.452/.581 in 31 Grapefruit League plate appearances and there was talk he belonged on the roster over a young fourth outfielder named Brett Gardner. Weber, then 32, didn’t make the team and instead went to Triple-A, where he hit .258/.333/.325 (82 wRC+) in 47 games before being released. Womp womp. Anyway, it’s been a few years since we had a good That Guy, hasn’t it? Gleyber Torres had a monster spring in 2017 and the coaching staff reportedly wanted him to play shortstop while Gregorius was on the shelf in April, but Gleyber was too well known to be a That Guy. It has to be someone like Weber or Yangervis Solarte, who turned his 2014 stint as That Guy into a nice little MLB career. Tim Locastro would’ve been a Grade-A That Guy candidate had he not been traded a few weeks ago. Gio Urshela has a chance even though he might not be random enough. Looking over the list of non-roster invitees, my That Guy pick is Matt Lipka. He has all the essential ingredients. He’s a total unknown to most fans (mystery is an important part of being That Guy), he has good pedigree as a former high draft pick (35th overall in 2010), and he’s a speed and defense guy, which will equal flashy plays that stick in your mind. I could totally see Lipka BABIPing his way to a .400-something batting average in 30-ish plate appearances against minor leaguers in the late innings of Grapefruit League games with enough hustle doubles and nice catches to create a “this guy should get the last bench spot” stir, if not a “start Lipka over Gardner and see what the kid can do” movement. Lipka is my pick to be That Guy.

5. One quick “state of baseball” thought to close this out. I’m not sure there’s anything that can be done to fix free agency at this point. Teams are refusing to pay big money to older players (they won’t even pay big money to 26-year-old stars!) and it’s difficult for me to see that changing. It’s not like aging curves are going to change, you know? Because of that, the MLBPA should focus on increasing pay for players with 0-6 years of service time in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. Remember, only a relatively small percentage of players even make it to free agency. Last season 1,379 players appeared in a Major League Baseball game and only 145 became Article XX(B) free agents, meaning they had at least six years of service time. A 2007 study found the average MLB career lasts 5.6 years and my guess is that number has come down as teams increasingly eschew veterans. Raising the minimum salary should be an obvious priority for the union. I also like the idea of replacing arbitration with restricted free agency. Rather than go to arbitration, players with 3-6 years of service time would be allowed to negotiate and sign a contract with any team, though their original team can match it and keep him. The player gets increased leverage and therefore increased earning potential. There could also be a draft pick compensation component as well. Sign a restricted free agent and you lose this pick(s), lose a restricted free agent and you get this pick(s). Something like that. The NHL has restricted free agency and, generally speaking, NHL players make the most money in years 3-7 of their careers. In fact, nowadays many of the largest NHL contracts in terms of average annual salary are going to players in their restricted free agent years. Imagine if Jacob deGrom or Kris Bryant could’ve gone out into restricted free agency this winter rather than be stuck negotiating with one team. Restricted free agency could be a game-changer for baseball and the MLBPA. If not restricted free agency, the union should still focus on raising pay for players in years 0-6 of their career. Get those guys more money because a) free agency doesn’t pay like it once did, and b) only a relatively small percentage of players make it to free agency anyway.

There are ten questions in this, the final mailbag of the 2018-19 offseason. Hooray for that. Spring Training begins next week and I can not wait. Remember to send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can each week.

Garrett asks: Are you surprised that the Yankees haven’t worked out an extension for Didi yet? There’s no way he plays the 2019 season at his current arbitration number without an extension right? Would there be any benefit to the Yankees in doing so?

I am not surprised and for a few reasons. One, waiting to see how Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery always made sense. The Yankees would be paying for an above-average two-way shortstop, but what if he loses some arm strength and is no longer an above-average fielder, or no longer able to play short? Two, the Yankees are over the $206M luxury tax threshold, so keeping costs down isn’t that big of a concern. They can pay Gregorius his entire $11.75M salary this year without it standing in the way of anything.

And three, free agency is in bad shape right now. Gregorius has an argument for Jean Segura money (five years and $70M), but, after missing half a season to Tommy John surgery, his market might be limited next winter. With free agency being what it is today, why rush into a contract with Gregorius? The chances of a big money bidding war are slim. It could be the Yankees and Sir Didi are far apart in contract talks, far enough that letting Gregorius go out into free agency so he feels the squeeze is the best way to get him signed to a favorable deal.

The Yankees have been stingy with extensions this century, which tells us they’re willing to pay large salaries down the road to reduce risk up front. They didn’t pay Chien-Ming Wang, he broke down, and they saved a bunch of money. Now, with free agency being what it is, the Yankees have even less of a reason to hand out extensions because those large salaries down the road might not be there, even if the player is healthy and productive. So no, at this point I’m not surprised they haven’t signed Didi yet.

Adam asks (short version): While I completely understand the point of the low risk, low cost signing of Troy Tulowitzki, I don’t understand the notion that he’s already been penciled into the starting shortstop spot while DJ LeMahieu, signed for 24M/2yrs, is expected to platoon vs. LHP. Wouldn’t it be fair to expect LeMahieu to see more playing time between the two?

Yeah, I don’t get that either. I mean, I totally get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki, but he hasn’t played in a year and a half, wasn’t good the last time he played, and he’s 34, so even if he were perfectly healthy last year, he’s at the point where you’d expect age-related decline. Teams are steering clear of free agents in their mid-30s these days, yet when a brand name like Tulowitzki becomes available for the minimum, half the league tries to sign him. Potentially getting something for nothing is a hell of a drug.

Anyway, yeah, it sure seems to me the best possible 2019 Yankees team has Gleyber Torres at short and LeMahieu at second, with Tulowitzki in a utility role. I think LeMahieu is a better player than Tulowitzki — he might be the better hitter at this point and is almost certainly the better defender — and therefore should play every day. Like I said, I get rolling the dice on Tulowitzki. It’s basically zero risk. But if we get to the end of April and he’s stinking it up, I hope the Yankees would pull the plug. They shouldn’t feel obligated to stick with him for two or three months just because he was great a few years ago and badly wants to prove he can still contribute.

Colin asks: In light of Miggy and Gleyber having both outperformed on power versus their prospect profiles, is it possible that the juiced balls have made contact tools significantly more valuable than power tools. Like if we regressed future WAR of 60 power prospects from 1990 to 2020, versus future WAR of 60 contact prospects on the same period do you think there would be a divergence in the last couple years?

The hit tool has always been more important than the power tool and yes, I think the current state of baseball makes that more true than ever. First of all, contact is harder to come by nowadays because pitchers are so damn good, making the hit tool that much more valuable. Smaller ballparks and the ostensibly juiced baseball artificially inflate power numbers, and research has shown hitters with warning track power have benefited most from the current home run environment. You don’t need to be Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton to hit the ball out of the park these days.

Two things to keep in mind. One, there are still some physical limitations. LeMahieu has an above-average hit tool, but unless he starts hitting more balls in the air, he’s not going to hit for power. Some guys just don’t have the swing to generate the loft necessary to take advantage of that extra carry. And two, the league-wide increase in power is at least partial the result of outside factors. As recently as 2014 we were all wondering where the home runs and offense went. If the ball changes again and suddenly those warning track power guys go back to being true warning track power guys, power hitters like Judge and Stanton become that much more valuable. Given the current state of baseball, the hit tool is much more valuable than the power tool. The pendulum could swing back in the other direction at any moment though.

Corey asks: I know Paxton threw one last year, but curious to year y’alls take on which Yankee is most likely (or capable to do so) to throw a no hitter or perfect game this year?

Any pitcher could throw a no-hitter on any given day. You’ve got your good stuff working and your defense makes some plays? You could make history. Mike Fiers, Chris Heston, Phil Humber, and countless others are a testament to that. Among current Yankees, Luis Severino is the obvious pick to throw a no-hitter because he has the ability to dominate and overwhelm hitters. Run good Severino out there against the Orioles or Royals and something special could happen. James Paxton is similar to Severino in that regard.

CC Sabathia has close to zero chance to throw a no-hitter at this point because he allows too many balls in play and so prone to infield singles and bloops. J.A. Happ is somewhat similar. Masahiro Tanaka is definitely a dark horse no-hitter candidate. When he’s at his best, he can cut through any lineup, and Tanaka at his best equals strikeouts and lazy fly balls, and lazy fly balls are easy outs. The Yankees have not had a no-hitter since David Cone’s perfect game in 1999. My hunch is, if we see one this year, it’ll be a combined perfect game because the Yankees don’t let their starters pitch deep into games and because the bullpen is so good.

Alberto asks: As we all know, Troy is still being paid $38+MM by the Blue Jays & NYY will pay minimum MLB salary. So, what if a team wants to pay more than that? Say, “SFG” offered $2MM to play for them just to snag him from other teams or NYY could that ever happened or he has to be minimum $$ & choose team?

It wouldn’t matter. Once Tulowitzki was released, whatever his next team pays him is subtracted from what the Blue Jays owe him, which is $20M in 2019. The Yankees will pay him $555,000 this year and Toronto the remaining $19.45M. If the Giants offered him $2M, they’d pay him $2M and the Blue Jays the remaining $18M. Another team could offer him, say, $22M, which would take the Blue Jays off the hook and increase Tulowitzki’s salary, but that’ll never happen. In cases like this, salary offered is irrelevant. Tulowitzki is getting his $20M. It doesn’t matter to him how teams are divvying that up. It’s still $20M at the end of the day. When players are released, where they go next comes down to preference and/or opportunity, not money.

John asks: I was reading your thoughts a week before spring training today and was curious where Chad Green fell on the perceived velocity list. I know he was lauded in 2017 for having a fastball that played up higher than it registered. Did that fall last year? Was it ever a measured thing?

The perceived velocity gain list is a giant bell curve. There are a few elites like Adam Ottavino, guys whose fastball looks 1+ mph faster than the radar gun reading on average because they get great extension and release the ball closer to the plate. There are also a handful of laggers, guys whose fastball plays down quite a bit because they don’t get good extension. The guys at the bottom of list are junkballers like Clayton Richard and Bartolo Colon.

Then there is a giant blob in the middle, which is where you find most pitchers. They neither add nor gain much through perceived velocity. Green and every Yankee other than Ottavino resides in said blob, so they’re neither helped nor hurt by perceived velocity. Their velocity it what it is. Here’s Green the last two years:

• 2017: +0.0 mph (95.8 mph actual vs. 95.8 mph perceived)
• 2018: -0.2 mph (96.1 mph actual vs. 95.9 mph perceived)

No change, for all intents and purposes. Green’s fastball last year was the same as his fastball the year before in terms of velocity and spin rate. To me, the biggest reason he went from otherworldly in 2017 to merely very good in 2018 is that the book is out on him now, and teams are better prepared for all those fastballs. Green could really use a reliable second pitch. I doesn’t need to be an Ottavino slider or a David Robertson curveball. Just something a little better than what he has now to keep hitters honest.

Pete asks: What do you make of Judge’s comments from yesterday about voluntarily moving to CF to accommodate Harper in RF? Is that a bit of a slight towards Hicks? Thinks Hicks cares?

Aaron Hicks won’t care because a) I imagine he feels the same way, and b) Aaron Judge didn’t actually say he’d move to center to accommodate Bryce Harper. “Anytime you can add an MVP to a team, it’s going to make them better … Wherever he wants to play, wherever he wants to play — we’ll make it work,” is what Judge said to TMZ. That’s it. A completely innocuous statement that applies to every possible free agent signing or trade addition or minor league call-up ever. Judge gave the tabloids a nice little headline for a day or so and that’s about it. Nothing more to it.

Bhavin asks: Provided Yankees are absolutely not signing Harper, do you think any of the remaining left handed bat is an option: Carlos Gonzalez, Derek Dietrich, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison or Matt Joyce?

I think Dietrich is, pretty clearly, the best fit for the Yankees among that group of players, and the longer he sits in free agency, the more likely it is he winds up in pinstripes. They Yankees have had some interest in him in the past and he’d slot into the final bench spot nicely as a versatile (albeit not very good defensively) lefty bat with a knack for getting on base. Duda and Morrison don’t do much for me at this point as first base/DH only guys, and I feel like CarGo and Joyce would give you Dietrich level offense without the ability to play the infield. Dietrich definitely has some “OMG it’s February 8th they need to sign him he’s perfect for the bench … OMG it’s June 1st they need to release him he’s hitting .214” potential. Looking at the list of available free agents, he strikes me as the best candidate to be literally the 12th position player on a roster with 12 position players. I don’t expect much offense from the other guys in a part-time role and they’re not nearly as versatile. (The Yankees should just sign Bryce Harper and put Brett Gardner on the bench.)

Will asks: Would it be possible for the roster to expand to 26 players but for tanking (or plain cheap) teams to not use that roster spot? Obviously that would really be sticking it to the union and they would have to explain it to their fans but nothing would surprise me at this point.

Nah. It’s in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that the 25-man active big league roster has to be full and I assume the same would apply to the 26-man roster. There is a little leeway — there were a few instances last season in which the Yankees sent a player down following a game, had a 24-man roster during an off-day, then called someone up before their next game — but not much. Certainly not enough to play an entire season a man short. It seems to me the MLBPA would be on solid legal ground to file and win a grievance in that case.

Jeff asks (short version): I’d like to know if you think my theory holds water. The Yankees, by letting their veterans go in 2016 and giving increased time to their young’uns dramatically changed the nature of rebuilding — given that they were a .500-ish team at the time — and perhaps provided a new model for rebuilding that too many other teams have taken. Did this attitude exist prior to the Yankees of 2016? Did .500-ish teams ‘rebuild’ before that?

Interesting! I do think that a prominent team like the Yankees throwing in the towel on a season like they did in 2016 — they were 50-48 and 4.5 games out of a postseason spot on the day of the Aroldis Chapman trade, which kicked off their mini-fire sale — could lead to other teams doing the same. “If the Yankees are doing it, why shouldn’t we?” That kinda thing.

Looking back at the few years prior to 2016, the only instance I can find of a legitimately good team deciding to rebuild is the Braves. They went 96-66 in 2013 and averaged 92.5 wins from 2010-13, then lost the 2013 NLDS (that was this series), went 79-93 in 2014, and tore it down. Instead of trying to bounce back and get peak Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, and Andrelton Simmons some help, Atlanta started a rebuild. Four great years, one tough year, great young core? Time to rebuild! Yuck. Now here are a few post-2016 examples:

• Marlins: 79-82 in 2016 and 77-85 in 2017 with that outfield, then they blew it up
• Diamondbacks: 93-69 in 2017 and 82-80 in 2018, then a rebuild begins
• Mariners: 89-73 in 2018, then a rebuild

Teams aren’t even trying to get better. At first sign of adversity it’s “ah well, time to start over” these days. I don’t think we can solely blame the 2016 Yankees for that — I think the primary culprit are the owners who’ve concluded it’s more profitable to field a cheap bad team than an expensive good team — but they did trade away veterans while not yet completely out of the race, so they probably contributed to it to some extent. When a huge market team like the Yankees says it’s okay to take a step back and get younger, other teams will inevitably follow suit.

Spring Training is a week away and that means we’re now in rule change season. Or, more accurately, rule change proposal season. Each year around this time MLB and the MLBPA propose ways to theoretically improve the game, and every so often rule changes are implemented. Last year mound visits were limited for the first time.

Over the last 24 hours or so multiple reports say MLB and the MLBPA are discussing a variety of rule changes that could take effect as soon as this season. Some are minor tweaks. Some are major alterations that would change the way teams build their rosters and use their players. Will we see any changes in 2019? Who knows. All we know is they are being discussed.

Jeff Passan, Joel Sherman, and Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) have reported on the various rule change proposals over the last day or so. Let’s go through them and see how they will impact the Yankees, if at all. Just to be clear: These are all proposed rule changes. Nothing has been made official yet. The side that made the proposal is in parenthesis.

Little-to-no impact on the Yankees

• Universal DH (MLBPA)
• 20-second pitch clock (MLB)
• Draft penalties for tanking (MLBPA)
• Two-sport players can sign Major League contracts out of the draft (MLBPA)
• End all Spring Training games after ten innings (MLB)
• Put a runner at second to begin extra innings in the All-Star Game (MLB)
• More players are miked up during games (MLBPA)
• Shorten commercial breaks by 30 seconds and add split screen ads to compensate (MLB)

Hooray for a universal DH! Pitchers are terrible hitters — they hit .115/.144/.148 (-25 wRC+) in over 5,100 (!) plate appearances in 2018 — so let’s get real hitters in there. A universal DH doesn’t do much for the Yankees though. They play ten or so interleague road games each year and at most four road games in the World Series. The union wants a universal DH this coming season but it seems likely to wait until 2020. They can’t just drop this on National League teams days before camp opens, you know?

I am pro-pitch clock and 20 seconds is a good number. Aroldis Chapman (averaged 28.4 seconds between pitches last year) and Masahiro Tanaka (26.1 seconds) are by far the worst offenders among current Yankees. They’ll have to adjust and pick up the pace a bit. Otherwise a 20-second pitch clock will require minimal adjustment for current Yankees and most pitchers around the league. Remember, there’s a pitch clock in Double-A and Triple-A, so lots of pitchers have experience with them already.

As for the draft penalties for tanking, it sounds as though the plan is to punish teams that don’t win a certain number of games. Lose this many games and your first round pick moves back a few spots. Lose that many games again the next year and the pick moves back even further, so on and so forth. The Yankees are (probably) never going to intentionally tank so this has little impact on them. If they lose enough games to get hit with the penalties, it’ll be because everything goes wrong.

The two-sport player thing might as well be called the Kyler Murray Rule. Murray, the ninth overall pick in last year’s draft, is a legitimate first round NFL prospect and he’s trying to leverage that into more money from the Athletics. Good for him. MLBPA wants better contracts for draftees but they also don’t want to lose high-end talent to other sports. The thing is players like Murray, who have a chance to go pro in two sports, are very rare, so this won’t come up often. There is some potential for abuse here though. (“Sign me or I’ll become a professional bowler!”)

End spring games after ten innings? Use the tiebreaker rule in the All-Star Game? Who cares, do it. Those games are meaningless. Miking up more players would be fun and I am pro-fun. Let’s hear some Didi Gregorius banter during games. Shortening commercial breaks is cool with me. We already have split screen advertisements during mound visits and even between pitches. Replacing 30 seconds of commercial break with 30 seconds of split screen ads is fine with me. Thirty fewer seconds between half-innings shaves at least 16 minutes off the time of game.

Some impact on the Yankees

• Three-batter minimum for pitchers (MLB)
• Mound visit limit reduced to four in 2019 and three in 2020 (MLB)

MLB proposed the three-batter minimum for pitchers, and while the MLBPA is reportedly open to the idea, they want it tested in the minors in 2019 before being implemented in the big leagues in 2020. The league wants it right away. The minors are for development. You don’t see many one or two-batter matchup relief appearances down there. Testing it in the minors is a way to push it off a year more than anything, which I think is necessary because teams already have 2019 roster spots earmarked for matchup relievers. Can’t drop this on clubs with this little warning.

Do you know how many pitching appearances of one or two batters the Yankees had last year? Thirty-seven, the fewest in baseball. (The Phillies led the way with 128.) In 2017 the Yankees had 52 such relief appearances, the fourth fewest in baseball. It’s been a while since the Yankees employed true matchup relievers like Clay Rapada. Those guys are already fading away. This rule change would make them extinct. (It also increases the chances of a big inning because if a reliever comes in and gives up back-to-back dingers or throws eight straight balls, etc., he has to stay in to face a third batter.)

I don’t like the three-batter minimum because I think teams should be able to use their players however they want. Both sides seem to support this though, so I guess that means it’s inevitable. The Yankees have steered clear of matchup relievers for a few years now so the rule would not drastically change the way they build their roster or the way they manage their bullpen. It will require some level of adjustment. Just not a huge one, I don’t think.

The mound visit rule worked quite well last year — I can count on one hand the number of times I saw a team run out of mound visits — and reducing the limit from six to four is probably doable. Going down to three in 2020? That seems to be pushing it. The MLBPA, for what it’s worth, reportedly countered MLB’s proposal with five mound visits in 2019 and four in 2020. They’re on board with the idea, just not at the same pace.

The Yankees were among the worst mound visit offenders prior to the rule change last year. Last season though, they left multiple mound visits on the board most nights, so they’ve already made the adjustment. Take away one or two more and it seems like they’ll be largely okay. There will definitely be times the Yankees want to conference on the mound but can’t throughout the season. By and large, a mount visit reduction wouldn’t change a whole lot.

A lot of impact on the Yankees

Several proposed rule changes look like they will have considerable impact on the Yankees (and all teams, really), so lets go through them bit by bit.

• Addition of a 26th roster spot (MLB)
• 12-pitcher roster limit outside September (MLB)
• 28-man roster limit in September (MLB)
• 15-day minimum stay for disabled list and optional assignments (MLBPA)

There’s a lot going on here. MLB is open to adding a 26th roster spot, which means 30 more big league jobs, but they also want to limit teams to 12 pitchers on their 26-man roster? What started out as a good idea turned into a terrible idea. We’re talking five-man rotation, seven-man bullpen, five-man bench. I don’t like the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction that has become so popular. A five-man bench seems like overkill though.

Adding a 26th roster spot is great. Let’s do that. Limiting teams to 12 pitchers is the problem. It eliminates the possibility of a six-man rotation — my guess is more than a few teams would use their 26th roster spot to implement a six-man rotation — and it’s also kinda dangerous, no? You risk overworking pitchers with a 12-pitcher limit. At the very least, you’re encouraging teams to make more shuttle transactions to ensure they have fresh arms in the bullpen. A 12-man pitching staff is a step too far in an attempt to reduce pitching changes and improve pace-of-play.

If MLB adds a 26th roster spot, the Yankees would be able to use a spot sixth starter more often, which is something they like to do. Would they commit to a full-time six-man rotation? Eh, I’m not sure. Taking starts away from Luis Severino and James Paxton and giving them to Domingo German seems not great, you know? The 26th roster spot would give the Yankees (and every other team) greater flexibility. Spot starters, a revolving door for the bench and bullpen, you name it. Would be great for flexibility.

Now, if MLB were to limit teams to 12-man pitching staffs, even without the 26th roster spot, it would change quite a bit. The Yankees usually don’t let their starters pitch deep into games and that means they’d probably need two true multi-inning relievers in their seven-man bullpen. Guys who could give you two or three innings regularly, not once in a while. (Maybe that’s where German and Jonathan Loaisiga come in?) The 12-man pitching staff puts a lot of strain on the bullpen and would have a big impact on roster construction and reliever usage for the Yankees and every other team.

The 28-man September roster limit is so dumb and I’m not surprised MLB proposed it. They want fewer September call-ups because it means less money spent on players. The league minimum salary will be $2,983 per day in 2019, give or take. Limiting September rosters to 28 players means 12 40-man roster players don’t get called up. Twelve players at the league minimum times 30 days in September equals roughly $1.07M less a team is spending on payroll. That’s MLB’s goal here. Not competitive balance.

The Yankees are fairly aggressive with September call-ups. They had 36 players on their active roster by time the regular season ended last year. That’s eleven extra players. Being limited to three September call-ups means what, two pitchers and a utility guy? The Yankees wouldn’t get to use their depth — three September call-ups means two of German, Loaisiga, Clint Frazier, Stephen Tarpley, and Tyler Wade would not get called up based on the current roster — to lighten the load on their regulars late in the season. I hate this proposed rule change. September call-ups forever.

MLBPA proposed extending the minimum stint on the disabled list and optional assignments from ten days to 15 days. That doesn’t jibe well with the whole “12-pitcher limit” idea, but MLB proposed that, not the MLBPA. Anyway, the union wants teams to stop manipulating their roster and jerking players around. Adding five days to the minimum stints means teams will think twice about sending a player down or putting him on the DL. The Yankees are a fairly aggressive bullpen shuttle team and this proposed rule change would throw a wrench into the way they usually do business. It would make life a little more complicated.

• Revenue sharing tied to team record (MLBPA)

The exact details of this proposal are unknown. The union has been pushing for anti-tanking measures and my guess is their proposal focuses on taking revenue sharing money away from tanking teams more than anything. Does that mean winning teams that into pay revenue sharing, like the Yankees, pay less or get some sort of rebate? It’s unclear. This is potentially huge for the Yankees, financially. It could also make no difference whatsoever. It could be that revenue sharing money taken away from a tanking team is redistributed to the other teams that receive revenue sharing rather than given back to the Yankees. Shrug.

• Service time bonuses based on awards finishes (MLBPA)

Specifically, the union wants rookies who finish in the top three of the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, or MVP voting to receive credit for a full year of service time no matter when they were called up. The same applies to winning the Reliever of the Year award, LCS MVP, World Series MVP, or leading the league in WAR. This, obviously, is an attempt to eliminate (or at least reduce) service time manipulation.

Under this proposal Gleyber Torres (third place in Rookie of the Year voting) would’ve received credit for a full year of service time last season, and thus been eligible for free agency during the 2023-24 offseason rather than the 2024-25 offseason. Gary Sanchez (Rookie of the Year runner-up) would’ve received a full year of service time rather than two months in 2016, moving his free agency up. Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, and countless others would’ve benefited from this proposal.

Props to the union for coming up with a creative way to combat service time manipulation. Will it work? Or will teams be even more shameless about it and keep prospects in the minors for an entire extra season if they’re not ready to contend? Who knows. (Imagine the Blue Jays keeping Vlad Guerrero Jr. down until 2020. Oy vey.) The Yankees will never admit it but they manipulated Gleyber’s service time last year and Severino’s service time in 2016 (his Triple-A stint was juuust long enough to push back his free agency), so this would ding them.

• Single trade deadline sometime before the All-Star break (MLBPA)

This is the union’s attempt to revive free agency (fix your problems now because you won’t get the chance later) and perhaps cut down on tanking because teams that are out of it won’t be able to dump players in July and August. July 31st is roughly two-thirds of the way through the season and that seems like a good time for the trade deadline to me. I feel like teams should be given the opportunity to react to injuries and make deals in late July (and August).

Anyway, the Yankees have been active at the trade deadline in recent years and I mean right at the trade deadline. Sonny Gray, Jaime Garcia, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, and Luke Voit all came over in the days leading up to July 31st. The big David Robertson trade with the White Sox was made in mid-July and of course Andrew McCutchen came over in late-August. The Yankees, like most teams, have concentrated their moves in mid-to-late-July.

I get what the MLBPA is going for here but I think moving the deadline up would be bad for baseball overall. It would extend the dog days of summer and give fans one less thing (trades) to talk about after the All-Star break. Are we really sure this would result in more free agent signings and early trades? Moving the trade deadline up would have a big impact on every team, especially contenders like the Yankees, who will have less time to survey the market and address weaknesses.

* * *

MLB also proposed conducting a study on lowering the mound, presumably to help cut down on strikeouts and give hitters a chance to keep up with the game’s continually increasing velocity. The league would look into it — the MLBPA would presumably look into increased injury risk on their own — and then the two sides would discuss the results and figure out what to do, if anything. There is no rule change proposal on the table right now though.

The Collective Bargaining Agreement allows commissioner Rob Manfred to unilaterally implement rule changes one year after a proposal. This year he can unilaterally implement a 20-second pitch clock, reducing mound visits from six to five, and the Spring Training/All-Star Game extra innings rules. It’s unclear whether he will actually do it at this point. The two sides are at the table discussing changes, so that’s good, and agreeing to rule changes is preferred to implementing them unilaterally.

Any rule change approval, unilateral or otherwise, will almost certainly happen before Cactus League and Grapefruit League games begin in two weeks. That way players (and teams) can use Spring Training to adjust. I think there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see a pitch clock and fewer mound visits in 2019. More substantial changes like a universal DH and roster changes (26th man, 12-pitcher limit, September call-up limit, etc.) are probably at least a year away.

T-minus one week until pitchers and catchers report and Spring Training begins. Greg Joyce says Greg Bird, J.A. Happ, James Paxton, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, and 2018 first rounder Anthony Seigler are among those already in Tampa preparing for the season. This offseason needs to end already. I’m ready for baseball. Anyway, here are some random thoughts.

1. Because the free agent market is frozen, a few times in recent weeks I’ve mentioned the Yankees are in position to snag a free agent bargain in February or March, and that’s still true. On paper, they have an open bench spot and two open bullpen spots. The free agent reliever market has really thinned out. Craig Kimbrel is far and the away the best available. After him it’s probably Adam Warren, and I’d be cool with (another) reunion with him. There’s not much quality bullpen help available. For that bench spot though, gosh, the Yankees could have their pick of the litter. Derek Dietrich and Josh Harrison are still out there, as are lesser bench types like Yangervis Solarte. I would be surprised to see Marwin Gonzalez’s market collapse so much that he becomes an option for the Yankees, though, at this point, who knows? The Yankees have internal candidates for that final bench spot (Bird, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade) so they are in position to sit back and see how the market shakes out in a few weeks. They can monitor Troy Tulowitzki’s comeback, react to any injuries in camp, and see whether anything makes sense. Neil Walker did last spring. Maybe Dietrich or Harrison or Warren or someone else does this spring. I think the Yankees still have one more move in them before Opening Day and I’m not referring to Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. I could see one last cheap signing in late-February or March, with Jordan Montgomery’s inevitable 60-day DL stint clearing a 40-man roster spot.

2. I’ve been thinking a bunch about Jonathan Loaisiga’s role with the Yankees the last few days. We only got a brief look at him last year and he is so obviously talented. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph and topped at 98.4 mph during his big league stint last season, and his fastball spin rate (75th percentile) and breaking ball spin rate (86th percentile) were very good. The tools are there for success. Will the durability be there? Thus far the answer is no. We know the Yankees have gotten some trade calls about Loaisiga this winter, and I can’t help but wonder whether cashing him in as a trade chip is the way to go. His stock may never be higher than it is right now and the breakdown potential is scary high. And, if trading Loaisiga is not in the cards, is it best to use him as a multi-inning reliever in the big leagues rather than send him to Triple-A to accumulate innings? I guess this all boils to how the Yankees feel about his chances of staying healthy. Loaisiga is not the biggest guy (5-foot-11 and 165 lbs.) and the best predictor of future injury is past injury, and he has a lot of past injuries. I think the the Yankees should use him in the bullpen and get what they can out of him before the next injury rather than try to groom him for a long-term role when his body is telling us it probably won’t hold up long-term. I so wish Loaisiga would stay healthy. You just can’t count on it given his history. There may be a very small window to extract MLB value from him, and if that means trading him or using him out of the bullpen, then the Yankees should do it.

3. I know we’ve been heavy on Adam Ottavino content the last two weeks — I recently wrote about his move to sea level and his stolen base problems — but I have one more Ottavino nugget to dump on you. I was poking around some leaderboards the other day and found he’s among the best in game at creating “perceived” velocity, meaning the extension in his delivery makes his fastball play up. He’s releasing the ball that much closer to the plate and it gets on hitters quicker than the radar gun reading would lead you to believe. Here is last year’s leaderboard in fastball velocity gained through extension (min. 500 fastballs thrown):

1. Tyler Glasnow: +2.6 mph (96.5 mph actual to 99.1 mph perceived)
2. Freddy Peralta: +1.6 mph (90.7 mph actual to 92.3 mph perceived)
3. Phil Maton: +1.6 mph (91.0 mph actual to 92.6 mph perceived)
4. Yusmeiro Petit: +1.5 mph (89.2 mph actual to 90.7 mph perceived)
5. Brent Suter: +1.5 mph (86.6 mph actual to 88.1 mph perceived)
6. Jack Flaherty: +1.5 mph (92.6 mph actual to 94.1 mph perceived)
7. Adam Ottavino: +1.3 mph (93.8 mph actual to 95.1 mph perceived)

First things first: Yeesh, Tyler Glasnow. I guess being 6-foot-8 with the wingspan of a condor has its advantages. Secondly, only 13 pitchers in baseball added at least one full mile an hour to their fastball through perceived velocity last year, so this isn’t particularly common. Ottavino is a big guy (6-foot-5) and last year’s perceived velocity gain was larger than 2017’s (+0.9 mph) and 2015-16’s (+0.8 mph), so maybe the increase is the result of last offseason’s training? Who knows. Velocity is not everything but it correlates well to higher strikeout rates and lower contact rates, which makes perfect sense. The hitter has that much less time to react. In Ottavino’s case, his fastball already has good velocity, and it plays higher due to his extension. Also, hitters have even less time to react to his cartoon slider. No other Yankee comes particularly close to Ottavino’s perceived velocity gain (Aroldis Chapman is next up at +0.5 mph) and I dunno, is this something you can teach? Adding extension seems possible but there are physical limitations (pitchers are only so tall and their arms only so long) and, at some point, you’re pushing the mechanical changes too far. Either way, Ottavino is among the best at making his fastball seem faster than it really it. When the radar gun says 95 mph and the hitter reacts like it’s 98 mph, his extension out in front and the hitter having to respect the slider is why.

4. Last week Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reported the Reds have been “quietly shopping” infield prospect Jonathan India this winter. Teams have asked for top prospects Nick Senzel and Taylor Trammell in trade talks and Cincinnati keeps steering them to India, the fifth overall pick in last year’s draft. “For him to be available all winter is telling,” said one rival executive to Rosenthal, who indicated the Reds may have already soured on India because he hit .240/.380/.433 (129 wRC+) in 44 games in his pro debut. That was after a .350/.497/.717 line at Florida last spring. Jonathan Mayo and Kiley McDaniel have since reported that no, the Reds aren’t shopping India, other teams just keep asking about him. I figured that was coming. If a report comes out you are shopping last year’s fifth overall pick, you have to do some damage control. Anyway, I bring this up because the Yankees absolutely should go after India if the Reds have truly soured on him. MLB.com currently ranks him as the 53rd best prospect in the game. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

With an advanced approach at the plate, he has excellent plate discipline and the ability to hit for average that should translate. India also has flashes of above-average power. Despite not being too speedy, he can be deceptively quick and is a solid baserunner with great instincts. A third baseman in college, India played there and at shortstop and could also likely man second base. He has a strong above-average arm with fielding skills and athleticism that would likely enable him to play multiple positions well.

That’s a guy I want in the system. I imagine the Yankees asked for India during Sonny Gray trade talks — they reportedly asked for Trammell, and likely worked their way down the line until settling on Shed Long — and perhaps this is something they can revisit. India’s name has come up in J.T. Realmuto trade talks and maybe the Yankees can get involved and make it a three-team trade. India to the Yankees, Estevan Florial (and others?) to the Reds, who then get flipped to the Marlins for Realmuto? I like Florial but I’d trade him for India in a nanosecond. The Yankees are loaded with high-end outfield prospects and short on high-end infield prospects at the moment, and elite (or potentially elite) infield talent is very hard to acquire. Get it while you can. India was my favorite prospect in last year’s draft — I never bothered to write up an RAB draft profile on him because there was no chance he’d fall to the Yankees — and if he is available, I hope the Yankees would make a strong effort to get him.

5. Two things I’d love to see that will never ever ever (ever) happen: One, Harper and/or Machado go to Japan or Korea for the 2019 season. They’d hit like 60 homers and it would be utterly humiliating for MLB, and MLB could use a good humbling. It won’t happen for many reasons, of course, chief among them being money. Even at an extreme discount, those two would make much more here than they would overseas (the highest paid player in Japan made less than $5M last year). You get the idea though. And two, the MLBPA proposes a “salary cap” for team profit. Profit exceeds the cap? Then the rest goes into MLB’s central fund. Or, better yet, it gets redistributed to teams that don’t exceed the cap. (Why is it always the players who need to have their earnings capped?) Either spend that excess profit on players and other baseball upgrades (minor league wages, ballpark improvements, etc.), or it goes away. Think that would light a fire under free agency? Can you tell I’m angry over the state of baseball? Because I’m angry over the state of baseball. Revenues are at an all-time high. There has never ever been more money in the game than right now, yet we get this bore of an offseason and a ton of crappy baseball teams because more than one-third of the league is not trying to be competitive. They don’t even hide it anymore. As fans, we are the ones who suffer. For the umpteenth straight year it will be more expensive to be a baseball fan this season than it was last season because prices continue to climb, and our reward is an increasingly crummy product. The product on the field is worse because competitive integrity has taken a backseat to pocketing revenue, and what is even the point of paying attention in the offseason? Nothing happening day after day is exhausting. I love baseball and hate baseball teams. What a mess the league is right now.

6. Speaking of the crummy market, last week I was reading something Buster Olney (subs. req’d) wrote about the Twins and their young players, and within that piece he said “(Miguel) Sano turns 26 in May, and considering the trends in the sport, it’s possible he’s closer to the end of his career in the majors than the beginning.” I read that and I did the Alonzo Mourning GIF.

It sounded preposterous at first, then I realized it is 100% true. How screwed up is baseball that a player with Sano’s talent and MLB success — this dude is one year removed from a .264/.352/.507 (124 wRC+) batting line with 28 homers in 114 games as a 24-year-old — might actually be closer to the end of his career than the beginning? I get that Sano has had some injury and conditioning issues, and that position-less right-handed sluggers are not the hottest commodity, but damn yo. The same concept applies to Aaron Judge, doesn’t it? He might be closer to the end than the beginning too. Trying to explain why owners are being cheap without saying “owners are cheap” is a daily thing now, with reporters and fans alike attributing it to front offices being smarter, which is generally true. Except Dietrich and Marwin are 29 and play everywhere and apparently no one wants them. Machado and Harper are 26! I get that they’re going to be expensive but they are 26 and awesome. If teams won’t pay them, who will they pay? That someone like Sano, who is so clearly talented and still months away from his 26th birthday, can be reasonably assumed to be closer to the end of his career than the beginning bothers me. Aren’t teams supposed to be tanking to get players like Sano? Now we’re already talking about him like he’s on the downside of his career.

7. Earlier this week it was reported a woman died after being hit in the head by a foul ball at Dodger Stadium last August. Here’s the story. She was behind the plate on the first base side, a foul ball went over the netting, and struck her in the head. Three days later she was unresponsive and taken off life support. Every team extended the netting to the ends of the dugouts last year after that little girl was hit by Todd Frazier’s foul ball in Yankee Stadium in September 2017, which is a start, but it really should be extended more. Extended and raised. If you’ve been reading RAB long enough, you know I am pro-netting. Players are bigger and stronger and they hit the ball harder than ever before, and MLB should not cut corners on safety. Telling fans to pay attention rather than stare at their phone is not a realistic solution. Complaining the netting interferes with the view is a weak excuse. It took a little girl getting hit in the head for the league to finally extend the netting. Hopefully some good comes from the woman’s death last year and teams will extend the netting further and raise it higher. Perhaps one of these days MLB will be proactive about this and prioritize fan safety without being pushed into action by a traumatic event. Even one serious incident is too many.