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Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

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German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

by

(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

A Full Year of a Healthier Zack Britton [2019 Season Preview]

by

(Presswire)

Going into last season, I don’t think anyone expected the Yankees to have to reinforce their bullpen at the trade deadline. There’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength though, plus Aroldis Chapman’s knee was aching and Tommy Kahnle had crashed hard, so the Yankees shipped three second tier pitching prospects to the Orioles to rent Zach Britton. It was the first Yanks-O’s trade since the Jaret Wright-Chris Britton deal. (They only trade with each other when Brittons are involved, apparently.)

Early control issues faded away and, by the end of the regular season, Britton looked a lot like the guy we saw in Baltimore all those years. The sinker was killing worms (77.8% grounders) and Britton even closed out some games when the knee sent Chapman to the disabled list for a few weeks. He quickly entered Aaron Boone’s Circle of Trust™ and the summer fling worked so well that it turned into a long-term relationship over the winter.

“We kept in contact immediately once free agency started,” Britton said during a conference call after re-signing with the Yankees. “The fact that I had been a closer and knew that I could do it at a high level, I felt I didn’t need to prove myself. I had some opportunities to close with other teams, but I didn’t feel like they were as close to winning as New York. I wanted to go back to a team that could win year in and year out.”

Being part of such a deep bullpen played a role in Britton’s decision — “They were one of the reasons I was trying to come back,” he said of his bullpen mates — and it didn’t hurt that Brian Cashman and Scott Boras were able to work out a creative (but increasingly popular) contract framework. The terms:

  • Two years and $26M guaranteed.
  • Two-year club option worth $27M.
  • If the Yankees decline the club option, Britton has a one-year player option at $13M.

Britton accepted a non-closing role, Zach became Zack, and the Yankees now have their best setup lefty reliever since … geez, I don’t even know. Mike Stanton? Boone Logan and Chasen Shreve had some moments, but yeah, it’s been a while since the Yankees had a non-closing lefty reliever with Britton’s ability and credentials. (Andrew Miller closed more than he set up with the Yankees). Let’s preview Britton’s first full season in pinstripes.

Is the old Britton ever coming back?

Zack Britton hasn’t been ZACK BRITTON in two years now. I don’t think we’re ever going to see 2016 Britton again, that guy was historically great, but the last two seasons Britton had a 3.00 ERA (3.83 FIP) in 78 innings. That’s still really good, obviously, but it is a far cry from the 1.38 ERA (2.40 FIP) he posted from 2014-16. The $13M annual salary indicates the Yankees expect him to be something closer to 2014-16 Britton than 2017-18 Britton.

The primary difference between 2014-16 Britton and 2017-18 Britton was health. A forearm strain sent him to the disabled list twice in 2017, and last winter he blew out his Achilles during an offseason workout, and was unable to return to the mound until late-May. And, when he did return, he didn’t have a proper Spring Training and was rushed. The O’s wanted him back as soon as possible so they could showcase him for trades.

Forearm problems are a common precursor to elbow trouble, so that’s worrisome, though it’s worth noting Britton’s forearm and elbow have given him no problems since 2017. The Achilles injury was a fluky offseason thing. That doesn’t mean it didn’t have a lasting impact though. Britton required surgery, and a few weeks ago he admitted he never felt right on the mound last season. His legs weren’t underneath him and his mechanics weren’t right.

“The surgeon told me I was completely healthy last year, but I just didn’t have the lower-body strength that I’m accustomed to, which made me throw from a different delivery and change my arm slot,” Britton said to Randy Miller. “The results were fine at the end of the year, but I knew that wasn’t me. I was just kind of getting by because my stuff was moving and I was getting away with some stuff. But I wasn’t who I wanted to be. This offseason, I got most of my leg strength back. My calf strength has come back.”

Statistically and velocity-wise, Britton certainly got better as the season went on last year. It’s worth embedding this rolling average sinker velocity and ground ball rate graph again:

That said, when a guy comes back from a major injury (and surgery) and says “I wasn’t who I wanted to be,” you can’t brush it off because the results were okay. Britton didn’t feel like himself last season. We all worry about arm injuries with pitchers, but leg injuries are no joke. The lower half is crucial mechanically and you need strong legs to generate power. Everything in baseball (hitting, throwing, etc.) starts from the ground up.

Britton was able to have a normal and healthy offseason this past winter, something he hasn’t been able to do in two years now. He was pretty good last year with limited command and his sinker not moving the way it usually moves. When his legs underneath him and a proper Spring Training, yeah, there is reason to believe Britton can back to being the guy he was prior to 2017. Or at least be better than he was the last two seasons.

At age 31, chances are Britton’s best years are behind him. The Orioles enjoyed them. That doesn’t mean Britton can not be highly effective going forward, especially now that he’s healthy. Last year’s uptick in velocity sure looks like a guy getting back to normal as he gets further away from the injury, and it seems his command has been there this spring. He looks more like September 2018 Britton than August 2018 Britton. That is a positive.

Britton vs. The Infield Defense

Objectively, the Yankees’ infield defense kinda stinks. We know all about Miguel Andujar’s deficiencies at third base — he’s looked kinda better this spring? hard to tell in limited looks — and neither Luke Voit nor Greg Bird will be confused for Mark Teixeira over at first base anytime soon. Gleyber Torres has very good defensive tools but has been error prone early in his career. Troy Tulowitzki? Who knows. He’s looked surprisingly nimble at shortstop this spring. Let’s see how he looks a few weeks into the season as the wear and tear accumulates.

Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Even the injured and not quite himself version of Britton was generating ground ball rates north of 60% the last two years, and at his peak his ground ball rate was closer to 80%. The better the infield defense, the better you can expect Britton to be, because those ground balls are coming. The Yankees have three defensive options when Britton is on the mound.

  • Stay with the status quo. Leave whoever’s out there out there.
  • Go with a five-man infield. Aaron Boone has mentioned it this spring.
  • Go max defense with DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Wade replacing Andujar and Tulowitzki, respectively.

There doesn’t have to be one solution. There’s a time and a place for all three scenarios. Down a few runs? Then leave your best players in the game. Ground ball hitters coming up? The five-man infield wouldn’t be a bad idea. Unconventional? Sure, but not necessarily bad. Replacing Andujar and Tulowitzki with LeMahieu and Wade certainly makes sense when the Yankees have a lead and those two aren’t likely to get another at-bat.

Britton struck out 20.1% of the batters he faced last year, and if he can get back to being the 30% strikeout guy he was earlier in his career, it’ll mitigate some of the damage done by the porous infield defense. It’ll only help so much though. Britton relies heavily on his infield defense and there are likely to be times it’ll cost him given the team behind him, especially while Didi Gregorius is out. That’s just something the Yankees will have to live with. You take the good with the bad.

* * *

Dellin Betances will start the season on the injured list and my guess is Britton will be the primary eighth inning guy come Opening Day. Perhaps Aaron Boone will platoon Britton and Adam Ottavino — Britton faces the tough lefties in the seventh or eighth while Ottavino gets the tough righties — though the Yankees believe in defined bullpen roles. They had them with Joe Girardi and they had the with Boone last year. Britton is willing to pitch whenever and he showed last year he can pitch whenever. That buy-in shouldn’t be overlooked.

My preference would’ve been re-signing David Robertson over re-signing Britton, though what’s done is done, and it’s not like Britton is a slouch. Even when less than 100% physically last year, he was still pretty good. Now he’s not coming off forearm trouble and he’s not rehabbing from Achilles surgery. He’s healthy, he’s had a normal Spring Training, and he’s familiar with the team (coming over at midseason isn’t easy!). As long as the infield defense doesn’t completely betray him, Britton can still be a difference-maker out of the bullpen.

Poll: Undoing one Yankees’ offseason move

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(Presswire)

Now that the big fish of free agency have picked their destinations, we can officially close the door on the Yankees’ offseason. (I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Dallas Keuchel signing even after the Luis Severino injury.) Even without Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, the Yankees had a pretty busy winter. They signed seven free agents, though only three are new to the club. Two significant trades were completed as well.

If you had a mulligan, which transaction would you undo? For argument’s sake, I’ll make a brief case against each move. I’ll then make my choice and let you vote on yours at the end.

Re-signed Brett Gardner (1 year, $7.5 million)

The first step of the offseason was to buy out Gardner’s $12 million 2019 option for a cool $2 million. Then, the Yanks re-signed him for $7.5 million immediately thereafter. It wasn’t a total shock that the team declined its club option on the outfielder, but it was somewhat surprising to see them bring him back immediately. Gardner had a 66 wRC+ in the second half last season, and at 35 years of age, looked just about done. If the front office knew that Bryce Harper was never going to be an option, they should have looked for alternatives before handing Gardner the left field job this season. If Gardner is indeed toast, hopefully Clint Frazier rights the team’s wrong.

Re-signed CC Sabathia (1 year, $8 million)

Unlike Gardner, Sabathia is in the midst of a late career resurgence. The main concern is his heart health after he underwent an angioplasty over the winter, but in terms of performance, there haven’t been any signs of decline. He’s recorded a 117 ERA+ since 2016, but maybe it would have been wise to part ways before Sabathia’s decline. Even though he’s reinvented his pitching style, who knows what could happen at 38 years old.

Re-signed Zack Britton (3 years, $39 million)

The Yankees ostensibly believe that they’re going to get the old Britton. Yet, bouts of forearm soreness in 2017 and a ruptured Achilles prior to the 2018 season sapped much of the southpaw’s effectiveness in recent seasons. For what it’s worth, his stuff looked pretty good in pinstripes at the end of the year. Still, he was pretty wild and struggled to miss bats. Why should we be confident that he’s going to be an elite reliever again?

Re-signed J.A. Happ (2 years, $34 million)

The concern about Happ is not unlike the worries about Sabathia. Happ is another older pitcher, at 36 years old, so the end could come at a moment’s notice. And like Sabathia, Happ has been really good in recent years. It’s just a matter of: is it better to move on too soon or too late? Especially when a younger and better alternative, Patrick Corbin, was available in free agency.

Signed Adam Ottavino (3 years, $27 million)

Ottavino was awesome last season. He’s got a wipeout slider and a strong fastball. How can anyone argue against that? Well, he’s also just a season removed from walking 39 batters in 53 innings. Control has hindered Ottavino in past years and he’s had a bit of a volatile career because of it.

Signed DJ LeMahieu (2 years, $24 million)

As it always goes with ex-Rockies, will he be able to hit away from Coors Field? That’s not the only reason for consternation, though. He’s settled in as a starting second baseman but will now be expected to bounce around the infield without a regular starting role. Is he expected to play almost everyday? Yes. But perhaps having to spend time on the infield corners becomes a problem too. Perhaps Marwin Gonzalez would have been the better option as a super-utility player.

Signed Troy Tulowitzki (league minimum)

When much of the fanbase wanted Machado, signing an oft-injured ex-star is a bit underwhelming. Not only have injuries marred much of Tulo’s career, but he’s also 34 years-old and hasn’t played well since 2014. To count on him as the starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery is a huge risk. There’s nothing wrong with taking a flyer on a guy like Tulowitzki, but entrusting him with a significant role could get ugly.

Traded for James Paxton

On a per inning basis, Paxton is elite. The problem throughout his career has been that he’s struggled to rack up innings, however. The Yankees are really counting on him to create a one-two punch with (healthy) Luis Severino, but will Paxton hold up? Getting an ace isn’t a piece of cake, and sometimes risks have to be undertaken in order to get one, which is precisely what the Yankees are rolling the dice on here. Again, with Corbin available for money, the Yankees could have held prospects like Justus Sheffield for an alternative to Paxton.

Traded away Sonny Gray

There’s no question that Gray’s tenure in pinstripes did not work out. If Gray thrives with the Reds, it’ll be easy to say the Yankees screwed up. But, was it sensible to deal Gray at his lowest value? Gray could have been given some sort of opportunity to rebuild himself in New York this year. Maybe he could have served as the swingman, which appeared to be Luis Cessa’s job to lose before Severino’s injury.

My vote goes for Gardner. I’d have been happy to have him back as a fourth outfielder, but to me, there was no need to rush into an agreement at the outset of free agency. His performance wasn’t going to find him a big contract elsewhere for the Yankees to match, and in fact, they probably could have saved a few bucks if they were patient. Not that the Yankees need to save a few bucks, but rather, my point is that they could have sought a better starting left fielder before returning to Gardy.

What offseason move would you undo?
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Feb. 18th Spring Training Notes: Andujar, Stanton, Loaisiga, Betances, Britton

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Position players reported to Spring Training today and Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey everyone has now reported to camp. New father Dellin Betances arrived today, as did righty reliever Raynel Espinal, who had a visa issue. Also, Boone said everyone’s physical came back okay. No surprise injuries to begin Spring Training. Here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • Here’s a good explanation of what Miguel Andujar is/has been working on defensively. Pretty interesting stuff. He’s added a little hop to his pre-pitch setup and is throwing more overhand on routine players. Here’s some video of Andujar fielding grounders today.
  • Giancarlo Stanton held a quick little start-of-spring press conference and said the biggest difference between playing for the Yankees and playing for the Marlins is “playing in games that mattered past May 7th.” Ouch. Stanton also said he’s feels fortunate to have signed his contract when he did given the current free agent climate. I mean, duh. [Bryan Hoch, James Wagner]
  • Jonathan Loaisiga hired a trainer this winter and focused on strengthening his shoulder. “We followed the program (the Yankees gave us). I worked to improve the little muscles around the shoulder. That’s one thing that has bothered me throughout my career,” he said. [Randy Miller]
  • Betances said he has had contract extension talks with the Yankees but declined to give details. “My priority is my baby boy and helping this team win,” he said. Betances will become a free agent after the season. [Pete Caldera, Jack Curry]
  • Turns out Zack Britton was not available for Game Three of the ALDS last year. He had a calf issue that was serious enough to require an MRI. Apparently the Yankees never announced anything because they didn’t want to hurt Britton’s impending free agency. [Andy Martino]
  • James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Chad Green, and Tommy Kahnle were all on the schedule to throw live batting practice today. So was Danny Farquhar. [Lindsey Adler]
  • And finally, in case you were hoping the Yankees would pick him up for the final bench spot, Derek Dietrich signed a minor league deal with the Reds today. So that’s that. [Ken Rosenthal]

Now that position players are in camp, the Yankees will hold full squad workouts the next four days before opening their Grapefruit League schedule this coming Saturday. The Yankees haven’t announced their starting pitchers for the first few spring games yet. Should happen in a day or two. Here’s the spring television broadcast info.

Four ways the 2019 Yankees could be better than the 2018 Yankees

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(Gregory Shamus/Getty)

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Tampa and the long journey that is the 2019 Yankees season is underway. Position players will report Monday and the first Grapefruit League game will be played one week from Saturday. Soon the beautiful monotony of Spring Training baseball will set in and we’ll all eagerly await the regular season. I love this time of year.

The Yankees, despite not signing Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, had one of the most active offseasons in baseball, one that saw them sign five notable free agents and make one significant trade. Believe me, the Harper and Machado thing irritates me as much as anyone, but you can count on one hand the number of the teams who have done as much as the Yankees this winter.

Have the Yankees done enough to close the gap on the Red Sox? I think so. You’re welcome to feel differently. The Yankees won 100 games last season and that’s an awful lot. It’s not often teams win 100 games in back-to-back seasons (only the 2017-18 Astros and 2004-05 Cardinals have done it within the last 15 years), but, with a talented roster, the Yankees have a chance to do it. Would be cool.

Now that Spring Training has opened, this is as good a time as any to take stock of the 2019 Yankees, and discuss why we should expect the 2019 Yankees to be better than the 2018 Yankees. The 2018 Yankees were really good! I see four reasons why the 2019 Yankees could be even better. Here are the four in no particular order.

Healthy Judge and Sanchez

For all intents and purposes, the 2018 Yankees played their final 61 regular season games without Aaron Judge. His wrist was broken by an errant pitch on July 26th, in the 101st game of the year, and he did not return until the team’s 147th game on September 14th. And, when he did return, he stunk. Judge went 9-for-47 (.220) with two doubles and one homer (.341 SLG) in 13 regular season games following the wrist injury.

Gary Sanchez was not good overall last season and apparently he wasn’t healthy either. His shoulder bothered him enough that he needed offseason surgery, and of course he spent roughly two months on the disabled list with groin trouble. It would be easy to blame the injuries for Gary’s down season. I’m sure they played some role in his poor year, particularly the shoulder, but there were some other issues at play as well.

The Yankees can go into this season reasonably expecting Judge and Sanchez to be healthy. Judge’s injury was a fluke and he showed in the postseason the wrist was strong. Sanchez’s shoulder has been repaired and he is already hitting in the cage and catching bullpens, so he’s on track for the regular season. The Yankees will ease him into Grapefruit League games because there’s no reason to push it.

Injuries happen and Judge and Sanchez could miss time again this year. That’s baseball. Neither has a chronic issue that dogs them year after year though — this isn’t Greg Bird with multiple years of ankle problems, you know? — and I think it’s reasonable to assume good health going into 2019. In this case, that means 90 or so more man games from Judge and Sanchez this year than last year.

Full seasons of Happ and Britton

Happ. (Presswire)

At this time last year we were talking about how having full seasons of Sonny Gray, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle would help the 2018 Yankees be better than the 2017 Yankees, so yeah, this game can humble you quick (one outta three ain’t bad, right?). The logic is sound though. They had this good player for half the season last year and now they’ll have him for a full season this year.

I do worry a bit about Happ’s declining fastball spin rate because he relies so heavily on his fastball, but he was also rock steady following the trade last year, and he is essentially replacing the revolving door of fifth starters. Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams combined to allow 116 runs in 30 starts and 136.2 innings last year. They averaged 3.9 runs and 4.6 innings per start for 30 starts. I kid you not.

Happ has made at least 25 starts every year since 2014 and he’s posted a (much) better than average park adjusted ERA every year since 2015. Even at age 36, I feel like Happ is a safe bet to make 25 or so league average starts this year. Given who he’s replacing, that’s a big upgrade. With Gray, we saw some warning signs late in 2017, when he lost the plate and seemed overwhelmed. That wasn’t the case with Happ last year. He came over at the deadline and fit right in.

Britton got better and better as he got away from his Achilles surgery last year and now he’ll have a healthy and normal Spring Training after a healthy and normal offseason. “I went home (after the ALDS), took a day off and started working out the next day and I started throwing a few weeks earlier than I normally do … I just wanted to get rid of some bad habits I (developed after the injury) last year and get ready to go for wherever I was gonna play,” said Britton to Dan Martin the other day.

Full seasons of Gray and Kahnle didn’t help the Yankees last season, but Happ and Britton are more Robertson than Gray and Kahnle given their track records, are they not? Gray had a few moments that made you wonder what was up in 2017. Kahnle never found a set role before his monster postseason. Happ and Britton came over last year and never really missed a beat. They transitioned seamlessly and having them for six months rather than two months is significant.

Paxton replaces Gray

Gray was supposed to be the upside starter. The guy with multiple years of cheap team control who had flashed ace ability in the past. The Yankees hoped to bring it out of him permanently and the opposite happened. He was a disaster last season. James Paxton is cut from a similar cloth in that he’s flashed ace ability over the years and the Yankees are hoping he’ll pitch at the level consistently.

Paxton misses more bats than Gray ever did — Paxton had a 32.3% strikeout rate last year whereas Sonny’s full season high is his 22.6% strikeout rate in 2017 — and he’s been better the last two years than Gray was in his two years prior to the trade. As for the “he can’t handle New York thing,” I don’t know what to tell you other than James Paxton is not Sonny Gray. They’re different people. One has no impact on the other.

What we do know is Paxton is better able to miss bats and limit hard contact than Gray. We know that because he’s done it the last few years:

Paxton in 2018: 32.3 K% and .284 xwOBA
Gray in 2018: 21.1 K% and .316 xwOBA

Paxton from 2016-18: 28.2 K% and .276 xwOBA
Gray from 2016-18: 20.8 K% and .320 xwOBA

I was a big Sonny Gray fan and I was thrilled when the Yankees made the trade in 2017. I feel better about Paxton now than I did Gray then because his strikeout and contact management tendencies are better. We know that, despite all his natural talent, Sonny was not working out for the Yankees. He was terrible. Paxton is not guaranteed to succeed just because he’s not Gray, but I feel really good about what he’s bringing to the table. The potential upgrade is enormous.

Stanton is entering Year Two

Over the years we have seen more than a few players join the Yankees and struggle in their first year with the team, only to rebound in year two. Struggle might be too harsh here, but that first year in pinstripes wasn’t smooth sailing. Here are some recent examples, with an emphasis on big name middle of the order bats (wRC+ and WAR):

Year before NYY Year 1 with NYY Year 2 with NYY
Carlos Beltran 131 and +2.7 97 and -0.5 119 and +1.7
Jason Giambi 193 and +9.2 175 and +6.6 149 and +5.0
Brian McCann 122 and +2.8 94 and +2.3 106 and +2.9
Alex Rodriguez 151 and +9.2 131 and +6.6 174 and +9.1
Gary Sheffield 163 and +7.3 141 and +3.8 137 and +2.4
Mark Teixeira 152 and +6.9 142 and +5.1 128 and +3.4

Giambi, Sheffield, and Teixeira all hit the ground running in year one. Beltran and A-Rod in particular were quite a bit better in their second season with the Yankees though, and McCann as well. Even Hideki Matsui went from a 109 wRC and +0.2 WAR in year one as a Yankee to a 140 wRC+ and +3.0 WAR in year two. That first season in New York can be a slog.

Giancarlo Stanton is now entering year two as a Yankee. All those new team, new teammates, new coaches, new city, new league, new ballpark feelings go away. Maybe they don’t go away, necessarily, but everything is more familiar now. Baseball players are creatures of habit and Stanton went from a largely irrelevant franchise to the center of the baseball universe last year. That had to be a tough adjustment. Now he knows what to expect.

I don’t know about you but I am fully expecting Giancarlo to have a big 2019 season. He wasn’t bad last year by any means — most players would kill to have .266/.343/.509 (127 wRC+) with 38 homers and +4.2 WAR be considered a down year — but Giancarlo went into 2018 with a career .268/.360/.554 (144 wRC+) batting line, so we know there’s more in there. Will he ever hit 59 homers again? Probably not. That is a lot of homers. Stanton turned only 29 in November though. He’s right smack in the prime of his career and I expect a big second season in New York.

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Keep in mind that the Yankees are built around a strong young core, and when you have players this young and this talented, the potential for natural improvement is awfully exciting. Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres with a better understanding of how pitchers are attacking them could be even more productive this year. Maybe Luke Voit really can do that across a full season. Luis Severino is still only 24! That second half last season could be a valuable learning experience.

To me, the biggest difference between the 2019 Yankees and the 2018 Yankees is replacing Gray and the fifth starter revolving door with Paxton and Happ. Those stand out as two significant upgrades. Healthy Judge and healthy Sanchez will undoubtedly help as well, ditto a full season of Britton, and Stanton without that first year adjustment period. It’s difficult to improve on a 100-win team. With Paxton and Happ, the Yankees have done it, and there are reasons to believe several incumbent players are poised for better seasons as well.

Zach Britton brought his four-seamer back last year, but is there anything to it?

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(Getty)

Coming into the offseason it was a matter of “when” the Yankees would add bullpen help, not “if.” David Robertson and Zach Britton both became free agents after the season and reports indicated the Yankees wanted to add two relievers to replace them. Makes sense, right?

So far the Yankees have added one reliever. They re-signed Britton last week to a unique contact. Britton and his turbosinker rejoin Dellin Betances and Chad Green as Aroldis Chapman’s primary setup crew. Three different looks there. Betances is just overwhelming. Green gives you straight gas. Britton is a ground ball machine.

Once upon a time Britton was a starting pitcher with a four-pitch mix. He threw four-seam fastballs and the sinker, plus a slider and a changeup. Then he scrapped the slider and went with a curveball. Once he moved into relief, Britton became a sinker/curveball guy. It’s more like SINKER/curveball. Look at this:

Like most guys Britton shelved his third and fourth pitches after moving into the bullpen. In his case, he has a dominant sinker, so he just throws it over and over and over again, with enough curveballs to keep hitters honest. Look at that graph again though. Notice anything? There’s a little bump in four-seamers late in 2018.

Britton, for whatever reason, threw some four-seam fastballs late last season with the Yankees. They were the first four-seamers he’d thrown since 2014. Here, for the sake of having a visual, is one of those four-seam fastballs:

Yep, that is a four-seam fastball, not a diving sinker. The question now is why? Why did Britton start throwing four-seam fastballs for the first time in four years last season? This is what we know:

1. He didn’t use it often. First and foremost, we’re talking about a very small sample size here. Ten four-seam fastballs total. Britton threw 475 pitches as a Yankee last season, postseason included, and ten were four-seamers. That is nothing. They are the first four-seamers Britton threw in four years though. That suggests there was something more to it than randomness.

2. There’s nothing special about the spin. The Yankees love spin rate. In Britton’s case, those ten four-seamers he threw did not show surprising spin. They averaged 2,168 rpm — the top spin rate recorded was 2,349 rpm, but none of the other four-seamers checked it at over 2,227 rpm — which is below the 2,263 rpm league average. It’s not like Britton had this high-spin four-seamer in his back pocket the entire time and the Yankees decided to unleash it. That would’ve been fun.

3. He only used it when behind in the count. This seems notable. Britton threw those ten four-seamers only when he was behind in the count. In get-me-over situations, basically. Here is the four-seamer by count breakdown:

  • 1-0 count: One
  • 2-0 count: Two
  • 2-1 count: One
  • 3-0 count: Three
  • 3-1 count: Two
  • 3-2 count: One

Furthermore, Britton only used the four-seamer in situations where he really needed to make a pitch to get back into the count. That four-seamer in the GIF above? Britton threw it in a 3-0 count leading off the seventh inning in a tie game. The remaining nine four-seamers came with men on base. They were “throw a strike, stupid” situations.

4. He used it mostly against the Red Sox. Coincidence? Maybe! Eight of those ten four-seamers came in three different outings against the Red Sox. Britton threw one four-seamer to Derek Dietrich (the GIF above) and one to Ronny Rodriguez of the Tigers. The other eight were thrown to Red Sox. Hmmm.

There are a few possible explanations here. One, randomness. Baseball is weird sometimes. Two, Britton has faced the Red Sox so many times over the years that he’s looking for ways to change the scouting report and continue getting outs. It’s a game of adjustments, after all. And three, the Yankees and Britton knew they’d have to go through the Red Sox in the ALDS, so they planted some seeds, and gave Red Sox hitters something to think about. Shrugs.

* * *

We can’t make any conclusions based on ten pitches so I am declaring Britton’s four-seam fastball usage a #thingtowatch. We’ll see if he sticks with it. My hunch is he used the four-seamer on days he couldn’t control his sinker. Remember all those walk problems he had following the Achilles surgery? Given the fact he only used the four-seamer when behind in the count, I’m inclined to believe he turned to it only when he wasn’t confident he could throw that moving sinker for a strike.

Perhaps the Yankees and Britton will stick with the four-seamer, just to give him another weapon and keep opposing hitters on their toes. We saw David Robertson throw a two-seamer at times last year and also mix in a few sliders. Veteran pitchers make adjustments and it could be Britton’s four-seamer is his attempt to remain dominant. For now, the sudden four-seam usage is something that happened and is worth monitoring. It’s too early to know whether it’ll make a meaningful difference on the field.