We’ve got some time to kill on a slow afternoon before tonight’s game, so enjoy. I lost it once Heyman got involved.
Looking Back. Looking Forward.
Every other week, Jamie O’Grady channels the 2005-version of Michael Kay by “Looking Back. Looking Forward.” to get you caught up on what just was, and what soon will be with the New York Yankees.
The Yankees are now virtually two-thirds of the way through the 2011 regular-season, and not surprisingly, they find themselves right in the thick of yet another pennant race. It’s really quite something when you consider all that’s transpired to date. Despite suffering only slightly fewer casualties than did the 54th Regiment under Matthew Broderick, and relying on a pitching staff mostly held together by duct tape, the Bronx Bombers still enter play Friday tied with the Red Sox at 68-42.
Looking Back: So what did you miss?
Back in March, I seem to recall reading somewhere – oh, right, it was everywhere – that the only things more certain than Boston winning the World Series in 2011 were death and taxes. Well, guess what – Kirk Douglas is still alive and the Tea Party says it’s okay to ignore those IRS notices I keep getting.
Need more proof that you just can’t predict baseball? Since Alex Rodriguez hit the DL on July 8th, New York has responded by winning 17-of-24 games, which roughly translates to a 70.833333333 winning %. With 165 runs scored over that same span, the Yankee offense has been clicking more often than that guy from The Gods Must Be Crazy. Still, it can’t be overstated how fortunate it was that everyone’s favorite centaur suffered only a minor meniscus tear; ARod’s already resumed baseball activities in St. Jetersburg.
Of course, leave it to Rodriguez to make headlines while rehabbing incognito. He’s reportedly now being investigated – at this point MLB has an entire compliance division dedicated to ARod – for taking part in some cocaine-laced, celebrity-stacked poker games. I doubt anything – suspension or otherwise – will come of this; Bud Selig is reportedly so fanatical about his strip-poker game that he’s doing P90X for a third time to tighten up those saggy glutes.
MLB’s non-waiver trade deadline came and went, and the Yankees made their traditional big splash by picking up… absolutely no one. It’s hard to blame Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman for standing pat – when the most appetizing available player is a guy named Wandy, it’s probably best to holster your sidearm. That said, it would have been nice to see the Yankees address their wholly unreliable DH slot. If only Jorge Posada hadn’t up and retired in a huff back in May. Surely if he were still on the roster, he’d be making an impact.
At this point in his career, I think it’s fair to compare Phil Hughes to a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get. And that’s the problem with boxed chocolates, isn’t it? It’s either a wondrous cocoa-gasm or a lethal bout with anaphylactic shock on account of the peanuts. Maybe the problem isn’t with Hughes, per se, but rather it’s the darn antiquity of the game’s rules. If only hitters were afforded just two strikes per at-bat, is there any doubt that Hughes would win at least six Cy Young Awards?
What we learned:
7/25 – 7/27 v. SEA – The Mariners are bad. Like, really bad. And don’t take my word for it, either. 17-game losing streaks tend to speak for themselves. You know a team is broken when its odds of making the playoffs are now less than one percent. It’s a good thing the Yankees have CC Sabathia on their side. Opt-out, schmopt-out. Striking out 14 batters in one baseball game entitles him to get paid. A lot. Again. Speaking of number-one starters who will eventually don the pinstripes, paging King Felix. Hernandez, coincidentally, has now won his last five decisions against New York, sporting a microscopic 1.29 over that span. You know what they say, “if you can’t beat ‘em, buy ‘em.” (NYY win 2-of-3)
7/28 – 7/31 v. BAL – Buck Showalter really likes wearing windbreakers, which is rather serendipitous given the endless squalls generated by the strikeouts of Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis. AJ Burnett apparently has an allergy to July, as he managed to go winless in his five starts during the month. Orioles’ starter Zach Britton once had a bad dream that he gave up nine runs over 1/3IP. Baltimore really needs someone to replace owner Peter Angelos. Someone with vision and a will to get things done. Is anyone better qualified than Marlo Stanfield? (NYY win 3-of-4)
8/1 – 8/4 @ CHW – The artist formerly known as Adam Dunn is having an historic season. Historically bad, which is precisely why I endorse his acquisition by the Yankees this off-season. Guys like Dunn don’t just forget how to hit altogether, and I suspect that a change of scenery might do the 31-year-old wonders. Assuming Kevin Long can work his magic to restore even 75% of Dunn’s typical yearly production, New York could do worse a lot worse at DH. Please ignore the fact that Derek Jeter has had just one fewer five-hit games (2) this season than Dunn has had “golden sombreros” (3). AJ Burnett is apparently also allergic to the month of August. In fact, he’s an unthinkable 0-for-pinstripes in three Augusts in New York. Oh, Brian Bruney still needs anger management therapy. (NYY sweep 4-game series)
Looking Forward: What can’t you miss?
If the Yankees are to have any hope of winning the AL East – and securing home-field advantage in the ALDS – they’ve got to figure out a way to solve the the Red Sox. Coming into tonight’s game, New York is a mind-boggling 1-8 against Boston, which has pretty much never happened before, unless you go all the wayyyyy back to 2009, when they started out 0-8 versus their Beantown rivals.
Don’t look now, but the rumors of Derek Jeter’s demise may have been slightly exaggerated. Since coming off the disabled list on July 4th, all the Captain has done is hit .333 with an OPS well north of .800. Sure, he doesn’t field ground balls that aren’t hit within two feet of him, but he’s a steady and serviceable defender who has proven an innate ability to rise to the occasion. Plus, he gets to roleplay “Bring It On” on a nightly basis.
The Jesus Montero watch has officially commenced. The highly-touted catcher (who supposedly can’t catch) is now hitting .288/.345/.441 over 340 at-bats with AAA-Scranton/Wilkes Barre, while Posada hasn’t exactly been lighting it up over the last 30 days with zero homers and a .532 OPS. Frankly, I can’t be the only one psyched for Jesus-wordplay on the tabloid backpages once the can’t-miss phenomhe arrives.
Everybody knows that the Yankee rotation beyond Sabathia (1.15 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 10.72 K/9 over the last 30 days) is a crap-shoot, so the performance of Rafael Soriano has taken on even greater importance for the club. Soriano (he of the widely-panned, three-year, auto-renew, huge-money, Randy Levine-approved contract) will be invaluable if he can return to career-form after two months on the disabled list. To ensure Soriano’s comfort level, Joe Girardi would be well-advised to anoint the former set-up man as his “none-th inning guy.”
What we expect to learn:
8/5 – 8/7 @ BOS – Look, these guys are good. In fact, they’re a lot like the Yankees from a structural perspective. Great lineup, suspect rotation, and a solid, if not particularly deep bullpen. New York will miss the newly acquired Erik Bedard, but it will remain interesting to see if he’s more stud or dud for the Red Sox. Keep an eye on Russell Martin tonight; he’s batting .500 against Jon Lester (albeit over just two at-bats). The pitching matchups aren’t really favorable to either club, so I’m betting that the Yankees begin to turn things around. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)
8/9 – 8/11 v. LAA – Does anyone even know who’s on the Angel roster anymore? Ok, that’s not entirely fair, they do have two of the best ten starters in the game in Weaver and Haren. Seriously, this team relies on the corpses of Bobby Abreu and Vernon Wells for run production, so if the Yankees don’t essentially end their season by next Wednesday, I’ll be very surprised. By the way, I’m pretty sure that Abreu and Andruw Jones shop for their smiles at the same plastic surgeon. It’s claymation, personified. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3)
8/12 – 8/14 v. TAM – This will be a series of “ifs.” The Yankees can sweep the series and bury Tampa’s wild-card aspirations if: 1) they keep Carl Crawford off the basepaths, 2) they can figure out how to hit Matt Garza; and 3) they have an answer for lights-out closer Rafael Soriano. Wait, forget all that, I think I read somewhere that the Rays traded all those guys for Kyle Farnsworth (2.16 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 20 saves). Speaking of Farnsy, I would have bet money that he was the guy with centaurian artwork at home. (Prediction: NYY sweep series)
8/15 – 8/17 @ KC – The Royals may be sitting at 16 games below .500, but it isn’t because of their offense. They’re actually 5th in team-BA (.267), 8th in team-OBP (.328), and 12th in both runs scored and team-OPS. Sadly, their abysmal staff, anchored by “staff-ace” Bruce Chen (yes, that Bruce Chen), ranks near the bottom of every Major League team-pitching category. Heck, even the aforementioned Adam Dunn has hit a home run against KC, which should serve the Yankees well in 2012. (Prediction: NYY sweep series)
And that’s all she wrote. I’ll see you back here in a fortnight, unless you follow me on Twitter, in which case I’ll see you every five seconds or so.
Getting to know you, getting to know all about you
Which Yankee would do the best on Jeopardy? Who on the Bombers is the snazziest dresser? Loudest on the plane? Biggest card shark? Behold these answers and more in Dan Barbarisi excellent glimpse at the life of the Yankees. The Wall Street Journal scribe surveyed 18 Yankees on a variety of topics, and for once, we learn a little bit more about our favorite players. Of course, Nick Swisher and Joba Chamberlain are the most boisterous on team flights, and of course, Francisco Cervelli takes the longest to get cleaned up after games. But Mark Teixeira, brainiac? That surprised me.
The funniest part involved Jorge Posada. Named the slowest Yankee by his teammates, the DH did not take too kindly to it. “I’m not the slowest runner here. I’m just telling you right now,” he growled at Barbarisi. Plus, if you read it, you’ll find out why the Yankees reacquired Sergio Mitre and which outfielder could be a future politician. While we wait for baseball games to return, it’s a fun read.
The Ramiro and Eduardo Show
This should keep everyone entertained for the next half hour or so. I hope they got that ball off the field after that play.
Saying the Right Thing, Part 2
A quick question: If you didn’t enjoy part one of this series, why are you reading part two?
To quickly summarize before I get back into the nitty gritty of this extremely important topic, complaining is a key part of being a fan of any sports team, and a sports team as good as the Yankees requires a double-dose of this skill. There are a lot of different things to complain about, but the key is to know what to talk about when and what to complain about when. Generally, immediacy is key: complain about lineups when lineups are posted, complain about Francisco Cervelli when he throws the ball into center field, and so on. Yesterday I covered hitters and today I’ll round up the other important stuff.
Letting Runs Score
When you’re being paid as much as these guys are and you only have one job, you better do it damn well. If your job is to not let people score, you better not let them score. It doesn’t matter that the average ERA is around 3. No Yankees pitcher should ever allow any runs. To do so is to invite scorn on yourself. There is a notable correlation between money and scorn – all CC showings that are not shutouts are automatic failures, whereras giving Ivan Nova a couple runs of leeway before calling himself failure is okay.
Pitching Changes
This is an easy fallback for when the game is going slowly – every pitching change is wrong. Every. Single. One. There is never a right choice. It’s not like pitchers shouldn’t be taken out of the game, just that it should always be at a different time. Robertson with two on and no out? Leave the starter in to get out of it. Ayala to start the sixth? Should be Marquez. Mo in the ninth? Bartolo Colon should have stayed in. Burnett takes a hard loss? He should have come out earlier. Boone Logan at any point in time, ever? Wrong. Noesi? Why is he in the pen at all?
Developing Starting Pitching
Is Hector Noesi starting? No? He should be. He is? Don’t rush the starters! No matter what the front office does, it’s always wrong. No matter how successful things are, they could always be better. Brian Gordon gives a great start? Noesi should have started. Noesi throws a great start? He should have been called up earlier! This is a great topic because it is always relevant, even when CC or AJ is on the bump. Starting pitching is necessary for the current and the future of the team, so this is a great complaint for anytime. Off day? Offseason? Blowout win? This is the complaint of choice.
Throwing Balls During Blowouts
When you’re up 11-0 in the eigth, all you need is to get outs. When you can’t even get players to swing at your pitches, it’s enraging. The players are ready to shower, the fans have other stuff to do, and you can’t even get a guy to put a ball in play. Plus, the offending pitcher risks requiring the use of an important pitcher. Seriously. And that’s all I have to say about that.
Weekend Writers
They suck.
Saying the Right Thing, Part 1
Now that we’re a good ways into the season, the excitement of baseball has faded away into the grind that is rooting for the team that you love. It’s hard to watch guys play a sport where, for hitters, they will only be successful 30% of the time and for pitchers, they’ll usually give up a couple of runs and get in and out of trouble. After the second or so week of the season, this ceases to be entertaining and it’s time to start complaining about everything.
Now, a successful team like the Yankees always has a lot going wrong with it. The pitching might be bad, the bullpen might be bad, the hitting might be bad, and to top it off, the front office might be running the entire organization (most notably player development) into the ground. What’s more important than making sure you’re pointing out to everyone how bad the team is when you’re pointing out what. There are times when pointing out the flaws within the team makes you a good fan and times when it just makes you seem obnoxious and whiny. Timing, as they say, is everything. In this two-part series, I’ll cover what to complain about when you don’t know what to choose amidst the catastrophe that is a 39-29 record with a +89 run differential and a 3.56 team ERA.
The Lineup
The greatest thing about the lineup is that it changes a couple of times a week, and there’s almost always something wrong with it, even on good days. Complaining about the lineup works on any game day, and since lineups come out early, you can get a good head start on the whining. Anyone but Gardner leading off? It should obviously be Brett Gardner. Gardner leading off? Obviously he’s going to get caught stealing. Derek Jeter leading off is a great fallback but is obviously not applicable when he’s injured. Lineups also are also the first place you’ll see where the A-list players are getting a day off, and this is totally not okay. The only options should be a) Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Russell Martin never get a day off and never get injured or b) they are replaced with players who are as good as them. Anything else is worth talking about how bad the lineup is today. I’ll cover the B-listers in more detail below.
B-List Players
Eduardo Nunez, Ramiro Pena, Chris Dickerson, Andruw Jones, and Francisco Cervelli essentially make up the Yankees bench and get their fair share of starts. The problem is, none of these players are as good as who they’re replacing. If any of these players are in the starting lineup, sound the alarm, alert your friends, and start whining. If there’s more than one of them? Well, you could could complain for days and everyone would just keep on agreeing with you. It’s simply not acceptable that these very young (or in Jones’ case, slightly older) players perform at a lesser level than their A-list counterparts, many of which have collected awards for their offense and/or defense. Ramiro Pena, why are you not as good as Alex Rodriguez? Sheesh, he totally sucks. Eduardo Nunez, why do you not possess the skill and grace of Robinson Cano or the fielding, uh, prowess, of Derek Jeter? Come on guys. Seriously? And the last one….
Francisco Cervelli
The man gets a category all of his own. He can’t hit, he can’t catch, he can’t throw, he’s too enthusiastic, he’s annoying, he’s overplayed. Did I miss anything? Frankie is the ultimate great fallback punching bag for when everything seems to be going right. Even when he goes 2-for-3, he still makes two errors in the field, like he’s allowing the fans to have a place to focus all their rage. I think it’s really quite noble of him, to be honest. I don’t understand why we’re not blaming him for Montero playing every day in AAA and Martin’s back spasms, to be honest. I mean, we’re already getting on him for being in the lineup. So what’s one or two more things that he has absolutely no control over? He was probably getting everyone to lose to Doug Davis from the bench, even. At least he’s a better dresser than most of the Yankees.
Slumps
Both the fans and the players know that every player is expected to perform at his career numbers or better at all times. If there’s even the slightest hint of a slump – say, ten PAs or so – it’s time to start making people aware how bad this player is. And the worse the slump gets, the more vocal you can to become. Screaming your head off about Jorge Posada in late May? Totally acceptable. However, you have to be careful to quit complaining the moment they break out of the slump. Jorge Posada is now great. It might be a good time to start complaining about Russell Martin (before he can heat up) or Nick Swisher’s left side, where he is still struggling. Andruw Jones, despite his relatively few appearances, is also a great target for this complaining, though it’s only good to do this when he’s actually striking out playing.
Not Hitting Against Crappy Pitchers
Phil Humber. Carlos Carrasco. Doug Davis. Last year, it was Bryan Bullington and Josh Tomlin. I feel like I speak for everyone when I say it’s annoying that the whole lineup all decides at once to stop hitting against a particular pitcher, especially when it’s a bad one. These kind of decisions are made with absolutely no respect to the fans. Seriously, guys, if you’re not going to hit, can you at least decide not to hit against someone who is throwing well this year (like Alexi Ogando?). You had a perfect opportunity to go down without a peep and instead you whacked everything and decided to do nothing against Doug Davis. It’s obvious that the Yankees decide what games to hit in and what games to be put down in, and complaining about that choice is perfect when those quiet games are being played.
Not Hitting
When you have a lineup that contains names like Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Robinson Cano, you should score a billion runs every day. Never mind that getting on base 30% of the time is considered successful. That is stupid. Everyone should always get hits and runs. All the time. This is another great fallback complaint when Cervelli isn’t playing, because someone will probably go 0-for-4. If you’re lucky, there will be a few 0-fers that make for easy targets due to mass strikeouts or weak ground balls.
Tune in tomorrow for part two, featuring pitching and and the front office. I know you can barely hold your breath in excitement. One additional note: Ryan Dempster isn’t really that bad, so no complaining about not hitting against him. Complaining about not hitting in general is, of course, totally acceptable.
Yankees’ starters and the good kind of homers
Interleague play has been in baseball for 15 years now, but no Yankees’ pitcher has ever hit a homerun in an NL park. I didn’t remember one, and B-Ref’s Play Index confirms it. That’s kinda disappointing. In terms of OPS+, the best hitting Yankees’ pitcher in the interleague play era is Kevin Brown (min. two plate appearances), who had a double and a strikeout in his two plate appearances back in the day. That adds up to a 290 OPS+. Javy Vazquez leads the way with a 121 OPS+ among guys with ten or more plate appearances thanks to a double, two walks, and three sac bunts in ten trips to the plate. The Yankees don’t pay their pitchers to hit anyway, no team does.
With the team headed to Chicago and then Cincinnati over the next few days, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that one of the Yankees’ starting pitchers will in fact hit a homerun at some point on the trip. Which one? I’m not that brave, but I am feeling it this year. Let’s stick some odds on the fellas…
Friday @ Cubs: Freddy Garcia
Sweaty Freddy has never hit a homerun in his career and has just a .190/.212/.222 career line in 80 plate appearances. He hasn’t had a hit since 2007 (in part due to injuries), and his two career extra base hits were a double in 2007 and a double in 2002. Wrigley Field is just about neutral when it comes to right-handed batters, so that doesn’t help his cause either. Garcia will have the platoon advantage against lefty Doug Davis, a ground ball guy (~45% over the last few years) that has surrendered 1.1 homers for every nine innings pitched over the last three years. Doesn’t look good for Freddy. Chances: 0.5%
Saturday @ Cubs: A.J. Burnett
All those years with the Marlins produced a .134/.180/.180 batting line in exactly 300 plate appearances, though A.J. has three career homers. One came off Rick Ankiel, another off Robert Person, and the third off Kevin Correia. The problem is that Burnett has just one hit (a single) in 17 plate appearances since coming over the AL. He will be at a platoon disadvantage against righty Ryan Dempster, who gave up eight homers in his first five starts this year but just five in ten starts since. Not liking his chances, but I do like them better than Garcia’s. Chances: 5%
Sunday @ Cubs: CC Sabathia
Now we’re talking. Sabathia is a .258/.265/.381 career hitter with three homers in 101 plate appearances, and two of those homers came with the Brewers in 2008. He also picked up a hit with the Yankees in both 2009 and 2010, though both were singles. Wrigley Field is very favorable for left-handed batters and CC will have the platoon advantage against Randy Wells. Wells has been an extreme fly ball guy this year (just 35.1% grounders) and has given up three homers in 18 IP since coming off the disabled list a few weeks ago. Chances: 29%
Monday @ Reds: Ivan Nova
Nova has never come to the plate in a professional game, majors or minors, and opposing starter Johnny Cueto has gotten better and better at limiting homers as his career has progressed. It’s also a right-on-right matchup, which never helps. That said, Nova’s young and presumably strong, plus the Great American Ballpark is absurdly favorable towards right-handed batters, so I could see him surprising us and running into one. Chances: 15%
Tuesday @ Reds: Brian Gordon
This is where it gets interesting. Gordon spent the first ten years of his career as an outfielder and is a career .275/.321/.460 career hitter in 4,161 minor league plate appearances. He hit no fewer than ten homers in any season from 2000 through 2006, including a 22 homer year in 2004. He averaged 15.1 homers per year during that stretch. Clearly, he has some power. The GAB also favors lefties, but Gordon will be at a platoon disadvantage against southpaw Travis Wood. Wood is an extreme fly ball guy though (just 31.5% grounders in his career), so if he doesn’t Gordon doesn’t hit one out himself, there’s a chance the Yankees’ offense will knock the Reds’ starter out of the game early and give their starter some swings against a right-handed long man. I like the odds. Chances: 50%
Wednesday @ Reds: Garcia again
The opposing starter is Mike Leake, a ground ball heavy right-hander (48.4% career). Sorry Freddy, it’s probably not going to happen. Odds: 0.5%.
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