NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Mailbag: Voit, 26-Man Roster, Judge, Stanton, Sabathia, Ichiro

March 22, 2019 by Mike

We have ten questions in the final mailbag before Opening Day. Starting next week, we can begin answering questions about meaningful regular season baseball. Hooray. Anyway, send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Eric asks: The odds that Luke Voit makes the AL All-Star Team are ___?

Much better than I realized! I’ll say Voit’s chances of being an All-Star are 35%. That’s pretty darn good. A week or two ago I wrote about the grim catching situation in the American League. First base isn’t much better. In fact, it is shockingly bad. Here is the ZiPS projected 2019 wOBA leaderboard for AL first basemen (first basemen typically earn an All-Star Game selection with their bat):

Joey Gallo, Rangers: .376 (he’s really a left fielder)
Luke Voit, Yankees: .352
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: .344
Matt Olson, Athletics: .342 (suffered a potentially serious hand injury earlier this week)
Dan Vogelbach, Mariners: .339 (battling Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion for playing time)

Yeesh. By ZiPS projected WAR, Voit is fourth behind Olson (hurt), Gallo (an outfielder), and Marwin Gonzalez (playing third base). The AL first base situation is shockingly weak right now. Voit’s All-Star competition at first base probably isn’t those guys mentioned above. I think it’s more likely to be someone like Jose Abreu or Justin Smoak, who could wind up being their team’s token All-Star. Maybe my 35% number is too low?

Paul asks: With an additional roster spot being a win for the players, is it also possibly a loss since it could mean lower salaries? Teams staying under the luxury tax, which didn’t have a corresponding increase, will have fewer dollars per player to spread around.

Yes and no. Yes because you’re right, the luxury tax threshold is not increasing despite the addition of a roster spot, and no because most teams are nowhere close to the threshold anyway. The 26-man/13-pitcher roster means every team is adding an extra bench guy and my guess is that extra bench guy will be league minimum up-and-down type rather than a big earner. Even the poorest/cheapest teams should be able to add another league minimum guy to their payroll without cutting money elsewhere. The universal DH is an x-factor here. National League teams would have to add another starting position player with a universal DH, and that could be costly. They might have to trim elsewhere to make it work financially, so, in that case, yes, the 26th roster spot could mean fewer dollars per player overall. As things stand, I don’t think it’ll matter because I expect that 26th roster spot to go to a cheap young player. Anyone who would cost a couple million bucks and require cutting elsewhere is already getting signed anyway.

Jeff asks: Frank Robinson’s recent passing reminded me of a concept that intrigued me as a kid … the Player/Manager. Joe Torre did it with the Mets. Pete Rose was the most recent to do it in 1984. The Yankees clearly value Brett Gardner’s clubhouse presence. Is there such a thing as a Player/Coach? Are the any roster advantages to such a scenario?

There hasn’t been a player-coach or player-manager in the big leagues since Rose in 1984. Manny Ramirez spent a few months as a Triple-A player-coach with the Cubs in 2014, so it has been done fairly recently at a high level. These days, playing and coaching/managing seems like way too much work to do both well at the same time. It takes a lot of time and effort to be a productive big league ballplayer. As a coach or manager, forget it, you have many people to worry about, plus the front office is in your ear all the time. Even as a fourth outfielder and assistant coach, and carrying a lighter workload in both roles, I’m not sure one person could do it. As far as I know there would be no roster advantages. I can’t imagine you could get away using a player-coach to skirt the luxury tax.

Danny asks: What do you think of a universal DH rule that ties the starting DH to the starting pitcher? When the starter is removed from the game, his DH is removed as well, and when the DH spot next comes up to bat, a bench player must be used. This would allow the strategy and increased playing time of the NL to remain, while also not forcing pitchers to hit. It was an idea I originally heard Michael Kay pitch during a game broadcast and I think it’s a great compromise. Do you see any potential issues with it?

That seems like a lot of headache for what, two or three pinch-hitting appearances per game? How much strategy is involved in that anyway? Pinch-hitting for a reliever in the late innings of a close game is a common sense move. Think about it, with this rule, when the Yankees visit Citi Field during the Subway Series, they would lose Giancarlo Stanton once the starting pitcher is out of the game. Either that or they’d have to move him into the outfield and remove someone else to keep his bat in the lineup. All that so DJ LeMahieu or Tyler Wade could get an extra at-bat? Eh. The end result here is taking a good hitter out of the lineup (good enough to start at DH) through no fault of his own (because the starting pitcher is out) and replacing him with inferior players (not good enough to start at DH). I feel like anything gained in terms of increased “strategy” would be more than made up by keeping the best players on the field more often. Long live the DH. No one watches to see sac bunts and pinch-hitters and double-switches.

Ben asks: Given Judge’s surplus of power and the way he is hitting with the reduced leg kick on 2 strike counts, is there a reason he shouldn’t always go with this more subdued leg kick? Could it theoretically reduce strikeouts since I assume that’s why he’s employing it with 2 strikes?

Using the no-stride swing full-time could further reduce strikeouts, though I don’t think it’s necessary. I say let Aaron Judge use his leg kick before getting to two strikes so he has the best chance at maximum damage. Once he’s in a two-strike count, go to the no-stride approach. Could he eventually go with the no-stride approach all the time? Sure. I don’t think we are anywhere close to having enough information to know whether that’s a good idea yet. Judge started using the no-stride two-strike swing this spring, and yes, he’s socked some dingers and extra-base hits, but we need more information. Let’s see how it plays during the regular season and over a few months rather than a few weeks. Judge is so good that I’m inclined to say let’s not change things too much.

Andy asks: Could you explore the effect of moving to a full time DH could have on Stanton? I thought I read an article that claimed there was a negative effect on offense when a player isn’t regularly in the field?

A few years ago research showed there’s about a 5% penalty for being a DH, meaning a player would be expected to perform 5% worse offensively as a DH than he would while playing the field. That’s on average. Each individual case is different. Last year Giancarlo Stanton’s overall offense was down about 13.5% from his career average, though he was quite a bit more productive at DH (150 wRC+) than he was as an outfielder (101 wRC+). It could be a sample size thing, or it could be that his body was fresher as a DH, and that he had more time review video in-game and make adjustments. I’m not sure. Stanton’s been a pretty good defensive outfielder throughout his career and it does feel kinda like a waste to stick him at DH so often. Then again, if it’s keeping him healthy and he proves to be one of those guys who performs better at DH than while playing the field, might as well roll with it.

Jeff asks (short version): Why are you against the 28 man September roster other than player service time and could you see an similar 28 man April expansion?

Expanded rosters in April would be a logistical nightmare. It would require pushing the entire minor league regular season back a month. The minor league season ends in early September each year and only a handful of teams go to the postseason, making it much easier to call up players. I understand the concerns that expanding rosters can impact postseason races, but, generally speaking, teams in the race still rely on their regulars and best players. The Yankees aren’t going to bring in Stephen Tarpley to nail down a one-run ninth inning lead at Fenway Park, you know? Players in September are beat up and worn down, and anything teams can do to reduce their workload in blowout situations is worthwhile.

Elliot asks: While I agree with your article on why CC should take the suspension to start the season, wouldn’t the suspension prohibit him from being in the dugout/on the field for opening day ceremonies (which everyone wants for his last opening day)? Could he file his appeal on Opening Day and withdraw it after the game to manipulate it for the same purpose, and start German for game 7 (especially if there is a rain out in games 2-6)?

I’m pretty sure CC Sabathia can take part in the pregame Opening Day ceremonies even while suspended. Rule 4.07 says any player, manager, or coach serving a suspension “may not be in the dugout or press box during the course of a game.” Before the game and during the game are different things. In fact, I’m pretty sure Gary Sanchez still took batting practice while serving his four-game suspension following the Tigers brawl two years ago. Anyone serving a disciplinary suspension can still do all their usual work before and after games. (Performance-enhancing drug suspensions are another matter.) They just can’t be around the team during the game itself. Sabathia should be in the clear for the Opening Day ceremonies. He’ll probably go sit in the team’s front office suite during the game.

CJ asks: You mentioned that Tyler Wade would likely be substituted in to facilitate a 5 man infield. How would you rank the Yankee infielders (other than Wade) to move into the outfield for a 4 man outfield against Joey Gallo?

Interesting! It definitely can’t be Luke Voit or Greg Bird. Imagine them running around the outfield? Oy vey. Voit did actually play some left field in Triple-A with the Cardinals, but that didn’t last long, and I think it’s easy to understand why. Not including Wade, I’d rank the infielders in terms of their potential outfield prowess this way:

Didi Gregorius
DJ LeMahieu
Gleyber Torres
Miguel Andujar
Troy Tulowitzki
Luke Voit
Greg Bird

That is little more than a ranking of athleticism. I figure the middle infielders are the best athletes and the most mobile, so they’re the best bets to play the outfield. With a three-man infield, you’re basically conceding grounders, so I don’t see a point in keeping your rangiest players on the infield. A grounder is most likely going for a hit. In that case, put the guys with the most range in the outfield and go all-in on air balls, and that’s how I set my rankings. If the Yankees ever go with a four-man outfield, I imagine Wade would replace Andujar to make it all work.

Corey asks: Now that Mo did it, do you think there’s a chance Ichiro is a unanimous first ballot HOFer? I’d say he deserves it.

Definitely. Ichiro Suzuki is a slam dunk Hall of Famer and I would say he deserves to go in unanimously even if Mariano Rivera hadn’t done it. Rivera being unanimous makes it more likely others will get in unanimously going forward, including Ichiro. The only good reason for leaving him off the ballot is giving the spot to another player who needs more help, and with the ballot starting to unclog, that shouldn’t be an issue. Ichiro doesn’t need to lean on his numbers in Japan to get into the Hall of Fame, though I do believe his status as a global baseball icon should be considered, and that makes him an inner circle guy. All-time great player on two continents.

March 21st Spring Training Notes: Sevy, Bird, Wade, Frazier, Florial, Gonzalez, Sabathia, Mazzilli

March 21, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees got thumped pretty good by the Cardinals today. Gleyber Torres had a double and a walk, Gio Urshela had a double and a single, and Miguel Andujar had a single. The B-Team couldn’t get much going on offensively. Then again, when Ryan Lavarnway leads the starting lineup in service time, what do you expect?

Domingo German gave up five runs, including three homers, in only 3.2 innings. He’d given up only three runs in 11.1 Grapefruit League innings going into today’s game. Given all the injuries, I doubt today’s outing hurt German’s chances of making the Opening Day roster. Anyway, Stephen Tarpley continued his strong spring with a scoreless inning. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

Luis Severino (shoulder) made 50 throws at 60 feet today as scheduled and everything went well. Tomorrow is a rest day. I’m not sure what comes after that. He probably has more flat ground work ahead of him before getting back up on a mound. [Bryan Hoch]
Apparently that pitch did not hit Greg Bird’s elbow pad yesterday. He was swollen today and sent back to Tampa for tests. “As a hitter, I don’t want to mess with his mechanics,” Aaron Boone said. X-rays and a CT scan came back negative, so all is good, at least in theory. Bird is likely to return to the lineup this weekend. [Coley Harvey]
Tyler Wade is fine after leaving yesterday’s game with tightness in both hits. He was examined today and is good to go for Opening Day. Clint Frazier fouled a pitch into his calf during today’s game but he’s fine too. Sore, probably, but fine. Estevan Florial (wrist) will only be in a cast three weeks, so that’s good news. [Bryan Hoch, Coley Harvey, Joel Sherman]
Gio Gonzalez threw a bullpen session today (here’s video) and is tentatively scheduled to pitch in a game Saturday, though it could be on the minor league side. Larry Rothschild said he “looks pretty close,” for what it’s worth. Also, Gonzalez said he added a cutter over the winter and likes where it’s at. [Erik Boland, Coley Harvey]
CC Sabathia threw two innings and 26 pitches in a minor league game today and everything went well. Here’s some video. Tommy Kahnle pitched in a minor league game as well, throwing 1.2 innings and 33 pitches. James Paxton and Luis Cessa threw bullpen sessions. [Bryan Hoch, Erik Boland, Kristie Ackert]
Billy Burns, Matt Lipka, and Ryan Lavarnway were all reassigned to minor league camp following today’s game, the Yankees announced. There goes any slim chance Burns had at making the team as Aaron Hicks’ replacement. I count 47 players still in big league camp, which is an awful lot with Opening Day one week away.
And finally, Lee Mazzilli is doing well after being hit in the head by a batted ball during batting practice yesterday. The Yankees say he’s in good spirits and will remain in the hospital one more night for observation. Good news. [James Wagner]

The Yankees are back home tomorrow night against the Braves. Only four more exhibition games to go. Jonathan Loaisiga is the scheduled starter tomorrow night. The game will be televised live.

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

March 21, 2019 by Mike

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

Dellin Betances (shoulder)
Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
Aaron Hicks (back)
Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

Greg Bird
(huge gap)
Billy Burns
(tiny gap)
Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Rotation	Bullpen
Gary Sanchez	1B Greg Bird	LF Giancarlo Stanton	Masahiro Tanaka	CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine	1B Luke Voit	CF Brett Gardner	James Paxton	SU Zack Britton
	2B Gleyber Torres	RF Aaron Judge	J.A. Happ	SU Chad Green
	SS Troy Tulowitzki	UTIL Tyler Wade	Luis Cessa	SU Adam Ottavino
	3B Miguel Andujar			MR Jonathan Holder
	IF DJ LeMahieu			MR Tommy Kahnle
				MR Stephen Tarpley
				SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

A Full Year of a Healthier Zack Britton [2019 Season Preview]

March 21, 2019 by Mike

Going into last season, I don’t think anyone expected the Yankees to have to reinforce their bullpen at the trade deadline. There’s nothing wrong with adding to a strength though, plus Aroldis Chapman’s knee was aching and Tommy Kahnle had crashed hard, so the Yankees shipped three second tier pitching prospects to the Orioles to rent Zach Britton. It was the first Yanks-O’s trade since the Jaret Wright-Chris Britton deal. (They only trade with each other when Brittons are involved, apparently.)

Early control issues faded away and, by the end of the regular season, Britton looked a lot like the guy we saw in Baltimore all those years. The sinker was killing worms (77.8% grounders) and Britton even closed out some games when the knee sent Chapman to the disabled list for a few weeks. He quickly entered Aaron Boone’s Circle of Trust™ and the summer fling worked so well that it turned into a long-term relationship over the winter.

“We kept in contact immediately once free agency started,” Britton said during a conference call after re-signing with the Yankees. “The fact that I had been a closer and knew that I could do it at a high level, I felt I didn’t need to prove myself. I had some opportunities to close with other teams, but I didn’t feel like they were as close to winning as New York. I wanted to go back to a team that could win year in and year out.”

Being part of such a deep bullpen played a role in Britton’s decision — “They were one of the reasons I was trying to come back,” he said of his bullpen mates — and it didn’t hurt that Brian Cashman and Scott Boras were able to work out a creative (but increasingly popular) contract framework. The terms:

Two years and $26M guaranteed.
Two-year club option worth $27M.
If the Yankees decline the club option, Britton has a one-year player option at $13M.

Britton accepted a non-closing role, Zach became Zack, and the Yankees now have their best setup lefty reliever since … geez, I don’t even know. Mike Stanton? Boone Logan and Chasen Shreve had some moments, but yeah, it’s been a while since the Yankees had a non-closing lefty reliever with Britton’s ability and credentials. (Andrew Miller closed more than he set up with the Yankees). Let’s preview Britton’s first full season in pinstripes.

Is the old Britton ever coming back?

Zack Britton hasn’t been ZACK BRITTON in two years now. I don’t think we’re ever going to see 2016 Britton again, that guy was historically great, but the last two seasons Britton had a 3.00 ERA (3.83 FIP) in 78 innings. That’s still really good, obviously, but it is a far cry from the 1.38 ERA (2.40 FIP) he posted from 2014-16. The $13M annual salary indicates the Yankees expect him to be something closer to 2014-16 Britton than 2017-18 Britton.

The primary difference between 2014-16 Britton and 2017-18 Britton was health. A forearm strain sent him to the disabled list twice in 2017, and last winter he blew out his Achilles during an offseason workout, and was unable to return to the mound until late-May. And, when he did return, he didn’t have a proper Spring Training and was rushed. The O’s wanted him back as soon as possible so they could showcase him for trades.

Forearm problems are a common precursor to elbow trouble, so that’s worrisome, though it’s worth noting Britton’s forearm and elbow have given him no problems since 2017. The Achilles injury was a fluky offseason thing. That doesn’t mean it didn’t have a lasting impact though. Britton required surgery, and a few weeks ago he admitted he never felt right on the mound last season. His legs weren’t underneath him and his mechanics weren’t right.

“The surgeon told me I was completely healthy last year, but I just didn’t have the lower-body strength that I’m accustomed to, which made me throw from a different delivery and change my arm slot,” Britton said to Randy Miller. “The results were fine at the end of the year, but I knew that wasn’t me. I was just kind of getting by because my stuff was moving and I was getting away with some stuff. But I wasn’t who I wanted to be. This offseason, I got most of my leg strength back. My calf strength has come back.”

Statistically and velocity-wise, Britton certainly got better as the season went on last year. It’s worth embedding this rolling average sinker velocity and ground ball rate graph again:

That said, when a guy comes back from a major injury (and surgery) and says “I wasn’t who I wanted to be,” you can’t brush it off because the results were okay. Britton didn’t feel like himself last season. We all worry about arm injuries with pitchers, but leg injuries are no joke. The lower half is crucial mechanically and you need strong legs to generate power. Everything in baseball (hitting, throwing, etc.) starts from the ground up.

Britton was able to have a normal and healthy offseason this past winter, something he hasn’t been able to do in two years now. He was pretty good last year with limited command and his sinker not moving the way it usually moves. When his legs underneath him and a proper Spring Training, yeah, there is reason to believe Britton can back to being the guy he was prior to 2017. Or at least be better than he was the last two seasons.

At age 31, chances are Britton’s best years are behind him. The Orioles enjoyed them. That doesn’t mean Britton can not be highly effective going forward, especially now that he’s healthy. Last year’s uptick in velocity sure looks like a guy getting back to normal as he gets further away from the injury, and it seems his command has been there this spring. He looks more like September 2018 Britton than August 2018 Britton. That is a positive.

Britton vs. The Infield Defense

Objectively, the Yankees’ infield defense kinda stinks. We know all about Miguel Andujar’s deficiencies at third base — he’s looked kinda better this spring? hard to tell in limited looks — and neither Luke Voit nor Greg Bird will be confused for Mark Teixeira over at first base anytime soon. Gleyber Torres has very good defensive tools but has been error prone early in his career. Troy Tulowitzki? Who knows. He’s looked surprisingly nimble at shortstop this spring. Let’s see how he looks a few weeks into the season as the wear and tear accumulates.

Britton is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Even the injured and not quite himself version of Britton was generating ground ball rates north of 60% the last two years, and at his peak his ground ball rate was closer to 80%. The better the infield defense, the better you can expect Britton to be, because those ground balls are coming. The Yankees have three defensive options when Britton is on the mound.

Stay with the status quo. Leave whoever’s out there out there.
Go with a five-man infield. Aaron Boone has mentioned it this spring.
Go max defense with DJ LeMahieu and Tyler Wade replacing Andujar and Tulowitzki, respectively.

There doesn’t have to be one solution. There’s a time and a place for all three scenarios. Down a few runs? Then leave your best players in the game. Ground ball hitters coming up? The five-man infield wouldn’t be a bad idea. Unconventional? Sure, but not necessarily bad. Replacing Andujar and Tulowitzki with LeMahieu and Wade certainly makes sense when the Yankees have a lead and those two aren’t likely to get another at-bat.

Britton struck out 20.1% of the batters he faced last year, and if he can get back to being the 30% strikeout guy he was earlier in his career, it’ll mitigate some of the damage done by the porous infield defense. It’ll only help so much though. Britton relies heavily on his infield defense and there are likely to be times it’ll cost him given the team behind him, especially while Didi Gregorius is out. That’s just something the Yankees will have to live with. You take the good with the bad.

* * *

Dellin Betances will start the season on the injured list and my guess is Britton will be the primary eighth inning guy come Opening Day. Perhaps Aaron Boone will platoon Britton and Adam Ottavino — Britton faces the tough lefties in the seventh or eighth while Ottavino gets the tough righties — though the Yankees believe in defined bullpen roles. They had them with Joe Girardi and they had the with Boone last year. Britton is willing to pitch whenever and he showed last year he can pitch whenever. That buy-in shouldn’t be overlooked.

My preference would’ve been re-signing David Robertson over re-signing Britton, though what’s done is done, and it’s not like Britton is a slouch. Even when less than 100% physically last year, he was still pretty good. Now he’s not coming off forearm trouble and he’s not rehabbing from Achilles surgery. He’s healthy, he’s had a normal Spring Training, and he’s familiar with the team (coming over at midseason isn’t easy!). As long as the infield defense doesn’t completely betray him, Britton can still be a difference-maker out of the bullpen.

Spring Training Game Thread: March Madness

March 21, 2019 by Mike

Including today, the Yankees only have five more exhibition games to play this spring. Four Grapefruit League games plus Monday’s exhibition game at Nationals Park. We’re beginning to see the light at the end of the Spring Training tunnel. Soon meaningful baseball will return.

The Yankees are on the other side of Florida to play the Cardinals today and they are using a true Spring Training lineup. The bare minimum regulars and a whole bunch of minor leaguers. That’s what happens when you play back-to-back days 200 miles away from the home base and don’t want to send guys on long bus trips. Here is the Cardinals’ lineup and here are the players the Yanks will use today:

2B Gleyber Torres
3B Miguel Andujar
LF Clint Frazier
3B Gio Urshela
1B Ryan McBroom
SS Kyle Holder
C Ryan Lavarnway
CF Matt Lipka
RF Billy Burns

RHP Domingo German

Available Position Players: C Francisco Diaz, C Jorge Saez, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Gosuke Katoh, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Jeff Hendrix, OF Zack Zehner. Diaz and Saez are still in big league camp as non-roster players. Everyone else is up from minor league camp.

Available Pitchers: LHP Rex Brothers, RHP Cale Coshow, LHP Phil Diehl, RHP Raynel Espinal, LHP Justin Kamplain, LHP James Reeves, LHP Anderson Severino, LHP Stephen Tarpley. Coshow, Kamplain, Reeves, and Severino are the extra arms from minor league camp.

It is cloudy with no rain in the forecast in Jupiter today. Today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch live on MLB.tv anywhere and FOX Sports Midwest in the Cardinals’ home market. There is no YES Network or MLB Network broadcast today. Enjoy the game.

Thoughts one week prior to Opening Day 2019

March 21, 2019 by Mike

In seven days the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at Yankee Stadium against the Orioles. Meaningful baseball is only one week away. Thank goodness for that. Hopefully no one else gets hurt between now and then. Anyway, I have some thoughts on things, so let’s get to ’em.

1. Two recent contract extensions are relevant to the Yankees. First, the Eloy Jimenez deal (six years, $43M) puts an end to any chance the Yankees had at signing Gleyber Torres to a six-year deal in the $30M range. Six years and $25M or so was the established rate for players with less than one full year of service time (Tim Anderson, Paul DeJong, Scott Kingery, Brandon Lowe). Forget that now. Jimenez smashed the pay scale. He and Torres are the same age and they’re both highly regarded prospects who were originally signed by the Cubs. Eloy hasn’t even made his Major League debut yet! Torres has an above-average big league season and an All-Star Game selection to his credit. Why would he take less than the Jimenez deal now? Oh well. Secondly, the Alex Bregman deal (six years, $100M) gives us another benchmark for an Aaron Judge extension. Bregman and Judge have nearly identical service time and they’re both MVP caliber producers. Their career numbers side-by-side:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%	WAR
Bregman	1,548	.282/.366/.500	137	58	15.5%	10.7%	+12.2
Judge	1,271	.273/.398/.565	155	83	31.6%	16.7%	+13.0

They go about it in different ways and at different positions, but the overall value is similar. Fortunately for Judge, he goes about it in a way that historically pays better (power), and he has more hardware. It’s two All-Star Game selections vs. one, MVP votes in two seasons vs. one, and a Rookie of the Year award vs. none. I spitballed a six-year extension at $100M for Judge recently, so I’m happy to see I was at least in the ballpark. Point is, we have another contract benchmark now. Bregman received six years and $100M at Judge’s current service time level. Mike Trout received six years and $144.5M at the same service time level a few years ago. It stands to reason a potential Judge extension should then fall somewhere between the two, right? Say, six years and $120M? That seems reasonable. Bregman’s deal and Trout’s deal both started right away. If you’re the Yankees, do you give Judge six years and $120M right now ($20M luxury tax hit from 2019-24) or a five-year deal at $119.32M that begins next year ($684,300 luxury tax hit in 2019 and $23.864M luxury tax hit from 2020-24)? Call it a six-year deal that begins immediately and they’d get slammed by the luxury tax this year. A five-year deal on top of the one-year contract he already signed for 2019 is probably the way to go. Well, anyway, the Jimenez extension raised the bar for Torres and the Bregman extension gave us a clearer picture of what it’ll take to sign Judge long-term. Thanks for nothing, White Sox. Thanks for the help, Astros.

2. I don’t have much to say about the Gio Gonzalez signing. Even though he’s no longer the guy he was at his peak, it is ridiculous a league average-ish innings dude like Gonzalez had to settle for a minor league contract a week before Opening Day. He would’ve been a fourth or fifth starter upgrade for what, maybe half the teams in baseball? For the Yankees, Gonzalez is zero risk pitching depth. It’s a 30-day free trial. If the Yankees like what they see, they can keep him. If not, they can let him opt out on April 20th. For Gonzalez, it’s an opportunity to face actual hitters in actual games, rather than continue to throw on his own. He can get himself into game shape and also audition himself for other teams in case he does opt out next month. Chances are the Yankees will need Gonzalez when his opt-out date arrives because who knows with the kids and injuries are always possible, though I don’t think it’s a lock he’ll be added to the roster. This could be a Kevin Millwood circa 2011 situation, where the Yankees have a recognizable name in the system, but let him walk rather than add him to the roster because his stuff is lacking. We’ll see. The Yankees get some added pitching depth and a free month-long look at Gonzalez with no financial commitment. Can’t complain about it at all.

3. Okay, I lied, one more Gio thought: $300,000 per start (up to 30 starts) isn’t a standard incentive. That is pricey, especially since it will be $396,000 per start in real money once you factor in the luxury tax. Gonzalez is a pretty good candidate for an opener at this point of his career — keeping him and his reduced stuff away from the other team’s best hitters seems worthwhile — and that could keep the Yankees away from the big money incentives. He could throw something like 150 innings behind the opener while making zero starts and earning zero incentives. That said, I get the sense Gonzalez and agent Scott Boras (and the MLBPA) would flip out about that. In that case, Gio would have a starter’s workload without actually starting, and they could argue the Yankees misled them and didn’t negotiate in good faith. They wooed him with starts-based incentives despite intending to pair him with an opener. That kinda thing. The Yankees set a precedent for paying bonuses that weren’t earned per the terms of the contract last year when they gave CC Sabathia the $500,000 bonus following the “That’s for you, bitch” incident even though he fell two innings short of the threshold, and I’m sure Boras would use against them. In all likelihood, this won’t matter at all and Gonzalez will make his starts. Still, it would make sense to pair him with an opener, and that could create an interesting situation with his incentives. Part of me doesn’t want to see Gonzalez in pinstripes because everyone else is healthy and pitching well and the Yankees don’t need him. Another part of me is curious to see how a potential opener/incentives situation would play out. It could get ugly.

4. Before it was announced he would begin the season on the injured list, my concern over Dellin Betances’ missing velocity was at a five on a scale of 1-10. Not panicked but his lack of velocity had my attention. Something clearly was not right. Dellin had a quick eight-pitch 1-2-3 inning in his most recent Grapefruit League outing and the television radar gun had his six fastballs at 89, 88, 89, 90, 92, and 90 mph. That’s … not where he should be. Betances is typically a slow starter velocity-wise and I know he reported to Spring Training a few days late following the birth of his son, but he’d been throwing for a month and had pitched in four Grapefruit League games up to that point. It seemed like the velocity should’ve started to creep up already. Before the injured list announcement, pitching coach Larry Rothschild told George King the Yankees were going to hold Betances out of games for a bit and work to build up his arm strength behind the scenes. “We are going to try and figure it out and see what it is. We need to see and play it by ear. Try to do some things, rest, long toss and see where it goes,” said Rothschild. Shoulder issues are never good, especially for a soon-to-be 31-year-old who’s thrown a ton of intense high-leverage innings the last five years, but at least now we have an explanation for the missing velocity. Betances said he cut back on his throwing leading up to the birth of his son and then did too much, too soon to get back up to speed when he reporting to Tampa. That sounds plausible. It is entirely possible age and the career workload are catching up to Dellin and his velocity is down for good. Father Time comes for everyone. Despite the shoulder issue, I’m optimistic that is not the case, and Betances will be back to normal following a little break and a proper throwing program. Still, those 89 mph fastballs over the weekend were jarring. It was clear something was not right.

5. Speaking of velocity, holy cats did y’all see Anderson Severino (no relation to Luis) over the weekend? The Yankees brought this little left-hander (listed at 5-foot-10 and 165 lbs.) up from minor league camp as an extra arm for the day, and he was out there throwing 99-100 mph. Severino had absolutely no idea where the ball was going, but still, that velo. Look at this:

The 24-year-old Severino spent four years in rookie ball before finally reaching full season ball last year, when he threw 45.2 relief innings with a 3.74 ERA (2.88 FIP) with 19.2% strikeouts and 8.4% walks for Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa. He hasn’t appeared on any prospect lists in recent years — “(His) size limits his upside, but he sat 92-95 mph with above average cut in short stints in instructs and flashed an average curveball,” wrote Kiley McDaniel about Severino back in January 2015 — and it is pretty damn amazing a lefty with that velocity can fly under the radar and not garner much attention. Even with that fastball, the odds are against Severino carving out an MLB league career at some point. That said, a lefty with that kinda velocity is going to stick around a while and continue getting chances. Pretty amazing the Yankees have dudes in the minors touching 100 mph and they’re not even on the prospect radar. Dellin’s velocity was jarring. Severino’s was eye-opening.

6. We’ve seen some funky defensive shifts in recent days. The Blue Jays used a four-man outfield against Aaron Judge and Greg Bird over the weekend, and the Rays did the same thing two days ago. I reckon we’ll see that during the regular season at times because Judge and Bird are both extreme fly ball and line drive hitters, so you might as well align your defense to their strengths. Joey Votto and Joey Gallo have seen four-man outfields during the regular season and it’s only a matter of time until other extreme non-grounder guys see it as well. Get ready for that. Also, Aaron Boone told Pete Caldera the Yankees have discussed using a five-man infield behind extreme ground baller Zack Britton. “Do we consider, in certain spots, like a five-man infield? Those kind of things,” said Boone. In certain situations, why not? The Rays have a lot of ground ball hitters, for example. Why not use a five-man infield behind Britton against ground ball heavy hitters on occasion? It’s an interesting idea and I’m curious about the mechanics. Do the Yankees ask Brett Gardner (lefty thrower), Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, or Giancarlo Stanton to play the infield in those spots? I don’t think so. That’s setting them up for failure. I guess that means you replace an outfielder with Tyler Wade, use him on the five-man infield, then move him to the outfield thereafter. Seems like a real creative use of Wade’s versatility. I hope we see this at some point. Weird baseball things are fun.

7. I could not possibly dislike the new September call-up rules more. Starting next season teams get a 26-man roster with a 13-pitcher limit from April through August (and in the postseason), then, in September, it’s a 28-man roster with a 14-pitcher limit. Teams must carry 28 players in September, which I guess is a good thing, and the ten-day waiting period still applies if you send a player down. You can’t have a taxi squad of pitchers that rotate in and out every two or three days. This stinks so much. The 28-man roster (and one extra pitcher spot) means it’s that much more difficult to rest worn down pitchers late in the season, but I guess the union isn’t worried about protecting arms. Also, there are a lot of players — a lot of players — whose only shot at the big leagues is as a September call-up. So many players now have no real chance at experiencing the big leagues and that sucks. It completely sucks. In addition to the increased salary — one month at the MLB minimum salary is more than seven times a full season at the Triple-A minimum salary — one day in the big leagues gets you access to the MLBPA’s healthcare program for life, and that is life-changing for so many players and their families. That is off the table for many now. Look at Stephen Tarpley. Does he get a chance to showcase himself last September and make the ALDS roster with a 28-man/14-pitcher roster? Almost certainly not. He was behind too many other guys. It’s not hyperbole to say last year’s September call-up changed Tarpley’s career outlook. Many others won’t get the same opportunity starting next season. Why not at least push for a 30-man or 32-man roster in September? I can’t believe the MLBPA went for this.

8. I don’t like the three-batter minimum for pitchers. I also think it’ll be one of those things we barely notice after a while. One or two-batter relief specialists are already being phased out, plus teams can still change pitchers after only one or two batters following the end of an inning. My preference would be letting teams use their rosters however they want. Let them position their defenders anywhere on the field, use as any pitchers as they deem necessary, whatever. I think creativity is good for the game overall. This rule goes against that. I do think the three-batter minimum restores some value to driving up the pitch count. I mean, working the count is always good, though it has lost some value recently because the game is so bullpen heavy and so many starters are only going through the lineup twice regardless of pitch count. Getting a starter to 50 pitches after two innings isn’t a big deal when his limit is 18 batters no matter what, you know? Now, with the three-batter minimum, if you can push a reliever to 25-30 pitches in an outing, it could impact his availability the next day. The opposing club might not want to send him back out there knowing he’ll have to face at least three batters again. I suppose you could use that reliever to get one out to end an inning on the second of back-to-back days, though you kinda have to plan for things to go haywire and that reliever having to say in to face three batters, right? This is where I think the three-batter minimum will have the most impact. Using guys on back-to-back or even back-to-back-to-back days. It makes a deep bullpen that much more important. Back-to-backs and back-to-back-to-backs figure to decline some league-wide. (It’s worth noting the three-batter minimum is being unilaterally implemented by commissioner Rob Manfred. The MLBPA didn’t agree to this.)

9. The Mike Trout extension reminded me of something I meant to write weeks ago but never did: Why didn’t the Yankees even fake interest in Bryce Harper? They didn’t even try to drive up the price for other clubs. They’ve done that in the past. Despite having no interest in signing him, Brian Cashman had dinner with Carl Crawford years ago to get other teams (i.e. the Red Sox) to up their bid. I get that the White Sox were the only American League team pursuing Harper, but still. Driving up the price for the Phillies, Dodgers, or Giants means a potential World Series opponent would have less money available to spend on other players down the road, in theory. The same applies to Manny Machado as well, though at least the Yankees were somewhat involved in Machado bidding. With Harper, it was nothing. My theory is the Yankees knew they were passing on him from the start and decided the inevitable headaches and bad PR that would come with him signing elsewhere wasn’t worth it. Getting involved, getting an (already grouchy?) fan base’s hopes up, then Harper going elsewhere wouldn’t have gone over well. It would’ve been a distraction — Cashman and Aaron Boone certainly would have been asked about what would’ve looked like a sincere but failed Harper pursuit, and probably the players as well — and the Yankees don’t need anything like that. I’m not sure why else the Yankees would have been so out of the Harper race. They brokered the Zack Britton signing with Scott Boras, so it’s not like they have a bad relationship. I dunno. Just weird is all. I expected the Yankees to at least fake interest in Harper to make life difficult for the other teams pursuing him. Didn’t happen.

Update: Yankees sign Gio Gonzalez to minor league deal

March 20, 2019 by Mike

Wednesday (8:30pm ET): The Yankees announced the contract earlier today, so it is officially official. Jon Heyman says Gonzalez gets a $3M base salary at the Major League level plus $300,000 per start up to 30 starts. The deal can max out at $12M.

Monday (8:18pm ET): The Yankees and Gonzalez have agreed to a minor league contract, report Joel Sherman and Ken Rosenthal. He gets a $3M base salary at the MLB level with incentives based on starts. Gio also gets an April 20th opt-out if he’s not on the big league roster, which indicates he is not an Opening Day roster candidate. A no-risk move to add depth. Can’t hate it.

5:30pm ET: According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees have made a contract offer to the still unsigned Gio Gonzalez, though a gap remains. He says there’s not much optimism for a deal right now. Gonzalez is the best available (and only other viable?) free agent starter behind Dallas Keuchel at this point, with Opening Day less than two weeks away.

The Yankees have had interest in Gonzalez in the past, so it’s no surprise they’ve maintained interest now. The 33-year-old threw 171 innings with a 4.21 ERA (4.16 FIP) between the Nationals and Brewers last year, and his strikeout (19.8%), walk (10.7%), and ground ball (45.3%) rates all left something to be desired. Ditto his Statcast profile:

Assuming no setbacks, Luis Severino is slated to return sometime in early-May, and the Yankees expect CC Sabathia to join the rotation in mid-April. Luis Cessa and Domingo German are penciled in as the fourth and fifth starters for the time being with Jonathan Loaisiga likely ticketed for Triple-A Scranton (along with Chance Adams).

Given his age and present stuff and what he did in the National League last year, I’m not entirely sold on Gonzalez being a better option than Cessa or German at this point, but there’s definitely something to be said for adding depth. Is Gonzalez willing to sign with the Yankees as depth? Or will he hold out for a guaranteed rotation spot? That could be a dealbreaker.

For what it’s worth, Gonzalez threw 107 pitches in a seven-inning simulated game last week, says Heyman. That doesn’t necessarily mean he has feel for his pitches yet, but it does mean his arm is stretched out, and that’s half the battle in Spring Training. Gonzalez could be an Opening Day roster option despite being a late signing.

Cot’s has the Yankees’ 2019 luxury tax payroll at $225.02M, giving them less than $1M in wiggle room under the $226M second tax threshold. Once they go over $226M, they get hit with an increased tax rate. The first $980,000 they give Gonzalez (or anyone) is $1.176M in real money due to the luxury tax. Every $1 thereafter is $1.32. It adds up.