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Open Thread: The problems with Javy

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A fourth-inning sight all too familiar to Yankee fans. AP Photo/Bill Kostroun

Mike will post a full recap of the Yanks’ disappointing 7-6 afternoon loss to the White Sox later tonight. I wanted to take the open thread to delve into one former scout’s take on Javier Vazquez’s struggles over his first five outings of 2010. The Yankees have lost eight games, and he has pitched in five of them. Something clearly isn’t right.

For many amateur psychologists among us, Javier’s problems are mental. He can’t pitch in New York they say. His body language and demeanor on the mound foretell that fate. There is more than a little bit of confirmation bias going on there. Because he’s struggling, his mound demeanor isn’t great, but that simply means he’s not pitching well now. It doesn’t mean he’s not equipped to succeed in New York.

But something isn’t right with Javier. His pitches have no bite and no location. In the early goings, his velocity has been markedly lower than where it was last year. To me, this suggests either an injury or a mechanical problem. FanHouse’s Frankie Piliere, a former Texas Rangers scout, thinks Vazquez’s problem is one of mechanics. I’ll excerpt at length:

For the most part, pitchers need to stay on top of the baseball to be successful and it’s especially crucial for a guy like Vazquez who relies heavily on fastball movement, not raw velocity, and the action on his big curveball. Not being able to get on top of his pitches is the simplified version of why the beginning of this season has been such a nightmare for him…

Where he’s going wrong in his delivery surely isn’t a mystery to Vazquez, but fixing it isn’t as simple as identifying it. Vazquez’ delivery requires him to have his arm and lower half in sync perfectly. Right now, that’s not happening. Everyone is ready to jump on the fact that he is collapsing on his back side and that’s why he’s struggling. Well, not so fast. At this stage with a 33-year-old, you are probably not going to revamp his mechanics when he has been working from this delivery his entire career. The manner in which he collapses on his back side and drifts toward the plate do make him susceptible to funks like the one he is in now, but at the same time when his mechanics are clicking he’s quite effective. So let’s stop short of revamping a big league veteran’s entire delivery.

However, it can’t be said enough that timing in Vazquez’ delivery comes into play perhaps more than any pitcher on the Yankee pitching staff. If he’s early with his lower half and stride toward the plate, like he is right now, he’s going to have a lot of trouble. So far, his lower half has been far ahead of his arm and he’s getting too far out in front to generate any decent leg drive. He’s going to have to stay back longer over the rubber and allow his arm to catch up.

The way he’s delivering the ball, he’s throwing against his front leg, rather than driving over the top of it and getting on top of the baseball. Again, Vazquez always has and more than likely always will collapse on his back leg and drift toward the plate. But, recently it’s just gotten away from him. Because he’s unable to drive over that front leg and get on top, he’s forced to rotate around his torso and shoulders, creating more of a side-to-side effect than a downhill effect.

Piliere goes on to discuss how Vazquez’s front shoulder is flying open, and from watching the first and second innings of Javy’s outing against the White Sox today, it’s easy to see how Piliere’s analysis seems to be spot on.

The former scout says it’s a tough issue to correct, and the Yankees are going to have to adjust on the fly. Vazquez’s next start comes after an off-day and is slated to take place in Boston on Friday. Because of that off-day, the team could start Phil Hughes, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett on regular rest and wouldn’t need Vazquez until they arrive in Detroit. The spacious confines of Comerica may be the confidence booster Javier needs, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hold him back a few days.

For now, though, the team has a problem with its fourth starter and the luxury of a 15-8 start which allows them plenty of leeway to fix that problem. Time for Dave Eiland to work some magic.

* * *
Beyond that, we have some bad news on Curtis Granderson. He’s out with a Grade II groin strain.

This is your open thread. The Rays and Royals are under way, and the Red Sox/Orioles affair starts at 7:05 p.m. The Canucks take on the Blackhawks on Versus at 8 p.m., and the Celtics and Cavaliers play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals also at 8 p.m. on TNT.

Javy’s struggles continue in loss to Angels

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For three innings it looked like Javy Vazquez might grind his way through a decent start. His fastball command wasn’t there yet again, but the Angels didn’t get much off him the first turn through. By the fourth, though, everything caught up with him. He wasn’t throwing many fastballs, he was nibbling with his secondary stuff, and eventually he hung a critical pitch or two. The offense had its own struggles outside of the second inning, but after his fourth straight not-so-good start, Vazquez once again finds himself the center of attention.

Biggest Hit: Jorge avenges Cano

Photo credit: Christine Cotter/AP

Scott Kazmir started the inning with two straight inside fastballs to Robinson Cano, the last of which caught him square on the backside. Two years ago that might have stung a bit more, but now Kazmir tops out at 90. The HBP to Cano crossed at 88. Kazmir went back to his fastball on the first pitch to Posada. This one clocked 89 mph, but more importantly caught all of the plate. Jorge did what any good hitter would do, sending it over the center field fence to give his team a 2-0 lead.

The second was the only good inning the Yankees put together. A batter after Jorge homered, Marcus Thames hit a shin-high changeup to the wall, Granderson sacrificed him to third — and nearly got himself on base — Cervelli walked, and Jeter eventually scored Thames on a fielder’s choice. Those three runs felt big at the time, like they were just the beginning. Kazmir got a handle of the game, though, and wouldn’t score again until the sixth.

Biggest Pitch: Wood gives the Angels the lead

Photo credit: Christine Cotter/AP

Through the first three innings it looked like Vazquez might get through the start without any serious damage. After recording the first out in the fourth, Vazquez allowed a single, hit a batter, and gave up another single. That put the Angels on the board and set them up with runners in first and second with one out. That turned into a bases loaded situation six pitches later, after Vazquez walked Mike Napoli.

The good news: hey, it’s Brandon Wood, and he’s barely hitting .100. The bad news: oh look, hanging curveball. The Vazquez pitch stayed high in the zone, and Wood smacked it to left. Marcus Thames tried to make a play, but just couldn’t get to the ball in time. It fell right in front of him, then got behind him. Two Angels scored, giving them their first lead of the game.

Thames has hit well in his role as lefty masher this year, but he gives bak plenty of that production in the field. This is the second big run-scoring play that Gardner would have fielded. This is why defense matters. If Gardner makes that play, the Angels are held in check and the Yankees leave the inning with a lead. Of course, Thames had scored after a double earlier in the game, so it’s not a universal positive. But Gardner has been far from a liability on offense lately.

Honorable Mention: Morales’s blast

Photo credit: Christine Cotter/AP

There seemed to be a bit of confusion to start Kendry Morales’s at-bat in the seventh. Francisco Cervelli stood up and held out his arm, signaling for an intentional walk. This seemed like an odd maneuver. Morales hit well in the series, but he’s a much weaker hitter from the right side. Runners stood on first and second, so to walk Morales would give the Angels another runner in scoring position.

Apparently Girardi changed his mind after the first ball and let Marte pitch to Morales. That seemed like the right decision. They needed just one more out, and it’s probably not a good idea to walk the bases loaded when it forces two runners ahead. Marte didn’t hold up his end of the bargain, though. After two fastballs outside to put Morales ahead 3-0. The dugout warned Cervelli that Morales will swing 3-0, but he went back to the fastball anyway, this time one in the zone low and away. Morales, guessing fastball all the way, laid into it and crushed it over the center field wall to ice the game.

After the game Girardi said that he screwed up, but I think the only thing he’s guilty of is indecisiveness. I do not, however, think that an intentional walk was the right call.

Vazquez’s issues continue

Photo credit: Christine Cotter/AP

Vazquez threw 78 pitches through 3.2 innings, and only 29 of them were fastballs. This isn’t necessarily a bad strategy, since Vazquez does sport a good secondary repertoire. But it appears that his fastball velocity is a bit down this year, and he clearly isn’t commanding the pitch. Until he works out those issues we’ll just have to hope for non-disastrous starts. I do have confidence that he can find what’s wrong and correct it, as long as that problem doesn’t require medical attention.

His next start doesn’t come until Saturday, so he’ll have a five-day breather between now and then. I doubt he’ll miraculously round into form between starts, but he has to be better than yesterday, right? At least next weekend he won’t have to face Bobby Abreu.

WPA Chart

Ug-lee.

Next Up

The Yanks take tomorrow off to fly back east. They’ll be in Baltimore on Tuesday, with Phil Hughes taking the mound. Kevin Millwood goes for the Orioles.

A good chance for Vazquez to get back on track

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It’s no secret that Javy Vazquez has underwhelmed in his first two starts this season. Not only has he allowed 12 runs in 11 innings, but he’s only thrown 58.8% first pitch strikes and has gotten just 7.6% swinging strikes, both well below his career averages. Javy will make his third start of the season tonight, and the good news is that there’s going to be a lot working in his favor.

Photo Credit: Kathy Willens, AP

The A’s have started the season well with a 9-5 record and +15 run differential, though they’ve spent a lot of time beating up on the punchless Mariners and awful Orioles. As a team they hit a fair amount of fly balls (37.2%) despite not really having any homerun threats in the lineup, and they make contact on 84.1% of the swings they take, one of the best rates in the league. Their offense is built a lot like the Yankees in that they make a ton of contact and hit lots of balls in the air, but they don’t put as many men on base (8.7 BB%) and they certainly don’t have the same kind of power.

Oakland’s home park is rather spacious with an infamous amount of foul territory. Over the last three years it’s suppressed homers and doubles to about 91% of the league average, though it’ll certainly beef up the number of triples hit. Three-baggers are kind of a special case anyway, because they usually require an exceptionally fast runner and/or an outfielder misplaying a ball to happen. Anyway, Javy’s going to have the advantage of facing a team without much power in a park that already suppresses extra-base hits, something you couldn’t say about his last two starts.

Some of his struggles have been attributed to mechanical issues, but there’s bound to be some confidence issues here as well. How could there not be after getting smacked around in two starts and getting booed off the mound at home? A strong outing and a win could go a long way just toward restoring an measure of normalcy to Javy’s baseball life, which could have a big effect going forward.

No one expected Vazquez to come in and be the pitcher he was last year in Atlanta, but we all certainly expected him to be better than he has been thus far this season. That said, it’s still just two starts. If he put two outing like that together in the middle of June, no one would care, but because they happened in his first two starts of the year, well it’s the worst thing in the world. April has this strange way of magnifying things. The matchup tonight features an impatient and power deficient lineup in a pitcher’s park, so everything’s working in Vazquez’s favor.  It’s a good opportunity for him to go out, toss up some zeroes, and walk away with a win and a boost his confidence.

And you know what? If he doesn’t, that’s not the end of the world either. His season will be just nine percent or so complete by this time tomorrow. There’s lots of time left.

2010 Season Preview: Strength from the back end

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During their run through October in 2009, the Yankees made headlines for their pitching. Not only did their starters excel, throwing few clunkers in the 15 games it took the Yanks to grab their 27th headline, but they ran through the Twins, Angels and Phillies while employing just three starters. It was impressive, but it underscored a weakness in the back end of the Yankee rotation.

To address that problem, Brian Cashman made a pair of moves with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain waiting in the wings. The initial no-brainer was to re-sign Andy Pettitte to a one-year, $11.75-million. Instead of debating about retirement, Pettitte, coming off a season in which he won the clinching games for the AL East, ALDS, ALDCS and World Series, finalized his deal in early December. The second move was a big one. On December 22, the Yanks sent Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino to the Braves for Javier Vazquez. The righty last threw a pitch for the Yanks in the 2004 ALCS, and his return to the Bronx offers him a shot at pressure-free redemption.

With these two in tow for the third and fourth starter spots, the Yankees can mix and match with the best of them. The rotation will be fronted by CC and A.J., a lefty and a righty, with Andy Pettitte, lefty, and Javier Vazquez, a righty, picking up the slack. With four veterans in place, each capable of throwing over 190 innings, the Yanks can use their fifth starter as a no-pressure spot for one of the kids, and if this rotation isn’t the best in the game, it’s certainly in the top five.

Pre-season accolades sound well and good, but what can we expect from Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez? The doubters among us may be tempted to look at the negatives. Pettitte, after all, will turn 38 in June and has had a minor history of elbow problems. Vazquez had a stellar year in the NL in 2009, but he left New York after falling apart in 2004. Yankee fans remember him for surrendering a Johnny Damon Grand Slam in a no-win situation and not his 10-5 first half that netted him an All Star game appearance.

First, let’s tackle Pettitte. In 2009, Andy made 32 starts and went 14-8 over 194.2 regular season innings. He had a 4.16 ERA and struck out 148 while walking 76. In the postseason, he threw 30.2 more innings and sported an ERA of 3.52. His 2010 projections are rosy indeed:

Basically, as one of the Yanks’ mid-rotation starters — the labels third or fourth don’t really matter — Pettitte is expected to regress slightly. We could see the regular season ERA tick up by approximately 0.10 runs while the innings, strike out and walk rates dip by a start or so. If Pettitte can match his projections while pitching in the AL East, the Yankees would be thrilled.

So what to look for in Pettitte’s 2010? Well, the biggest concern for him is the way he approaches pitching in Yankee Stadium. Early on last year, Andy was vocal about his dislike of the new ballpark, and it showed in his numbers. His road ERA was 3.71 while his home mark was 4.59. He surrendered 70 percent of his home runs at home, and opponents OPS’d nearly .130 points higher in the Bronx. At home, Pettitte will have to be a different pitcher to enjoy greater success, and in 2010, we’ll see if he can continue to pull a Mike Mussina and reinvent himself as a strategic thrower. Knowing that he can’t throw the fastball past too many hitters today, he’s well on his way to that goal.

And then we have Javier Vazquez. In 2009, he was great. He went 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting. He threw 219.1 innings, struck out 238 and walked just 44. By issuing so few free passes, the 20 home runs he allowed didn’t come back to bite him. He is, however, third on the active home runs list, and that moniker Home Run Javy isn’t undeserved. His 2010 looks fantastic on paper.

The projections expect a top season for Javier Vazquez and numbers that would make him the team’s second best starter. The 23 home runs allowed may be on the optimistic side, but if he throws 204.1 innings with 196 strike outs and a 3.60 ERA, the fans would embrace him. For Javy, though, the key will be the bases on balls. Pitching at Yankee Stadium, he will, for better or worse, give up his fair share of long balls, but if he can limit the damage, much the better.

In a way, the Yankees are taking a gamble on their third and fourth starter tandem this year. The team could have opted to re-up with Pettitte and slot in both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the fourth and fifth spots. At some point, after all, the team is going to have to develop its own pitchers and give the kids a chance to throw enough innings for a full season’s worth of work. On the other hand, when the team tried that in 2008, it backfired before April was over.

So the Yankees will head into 2010 with two guys pitching in their walk years occupying the middle spots of the rotation. We might be seeing Andy Pettitte’s final year in baseball. We might be watching Javier Vazquez’s redemption tour in New York City. We might worry about regressions and injuries, but that comes with the pitching territory across the board. The Yankees needed an arm to take the innings pressure off of CC, A.J. and Andy after a long 2009, and that’s Javier Vazquez’s job. There are worse men for the position. With two veterans in the back end, the Yanks’ rotation is sitting pretty for 2010.

AP Photo of Javier Vazquez by Kathy Willens. AP Photo of Andy Pettitte by Elise Amendola.

Then & Now: A Javy Vazquez Retrospective

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I don’t know about you, but I couldn’t help but laugh when Jimmy Rollins sent Javy Vazquez’s first pitch of the exhibition season (his first pitch!) into the rightfield bleachers yesterday afternoon. “It was funny,” joked Vazquez after the game. “I’ve faced the Phillies a lot and Jimmy likes swinging at the first pitch once in a while, but my first time out in spring training, he should give me a chance to let it go a little bit.” The solo shot yesterday was like a gift from the confirmation bias gods, fueling the irrational hatred dwelling inside the lovers Javy scorned back in 2004. Of course, most realize that people change over time, especially when you’re talking about a period of six years. The Javy Vazquez we watched give up that grand slam to Johnny Damon is not the Javy Vazquez that suited up for the Yankees yesterday.

One thing that caught my attention following the game yesterday was that Vazquez said that he used to be “a little stubborn” in his younger years, trying to be macho by blowing his fastball by hitters. Believe it or not, this is not something unique to Vazquez. He claimed that he’s since changed his pitching style, steadily mixing in more offspeed pitches to keep hitters off balance. We saw some of those offspeed offerings at work yesterday, whether it was the changeup Chase Utley swung over or the bender Raul Ibanez watched drop in on the outer half.

Since we have the data at our disposal, I figured we should take a look at Javy’s pitch selection from 2004, and compare it to his pitch selection from last year. This info is begging for a pie chart, so here it is (remember to click for a larger view)…

You can clearly see that Vazquez has scaled back his fastball usage, and is now throwing his three offspeed pitches at near equal parts. The slider went from being his most ignored pitch to his second most utilized in that five year stretch, and that same changeup that got Utley yesterday went from his second most used pitch to the least used. With a guy like Javy, who throws upwards of 3,300 pitches per year, we’re talking about a difference of almost 230 fewer fastballs, 350 fewer changeups (think of that as ten fewer per start), and 520 more sliders (15 more per start) in a five year period (on average). Here’s a look at the year-by-year change, so you can see this has been a slow and steady process spanning the better part of a decade.

The change in pitching pattern isn’t just a superficial crutch, something the optimists among us are clinging to in hopes that Vazquez will actually pitch well this year. There’s evidence that the change has benefited him, just take a look at the pitch values to the right. Those values are runs per 100 pitches thrown, so last season Javy’s fastball was worth eight-tenths of a run above average for every 100 heaters he threw. As you can see, all four of Javy’s pitches were above average last season, and the improvement since 2004 is considerable. At least seven-tenths of a run per 100 pitches, and on average it’s closer to 1.70 runs across the board. Obviously not all of that improvement can be attributed to mixing up his pitches better, but it’s certainly part of it.

Of course, don’t let me fool you into thinking the Yankees are going to be getting the 2009 version of Vazquez. He had the luxury of feasting on National League lineups in a favorable ballpark during his one season in Atlanta, and he won’t enjoy those comforts in the Bronx. The 2009 season was one of the three best of Javy’s career in terms of WAR, and it’s unreasonable to expect him to repeat that kind of season when he’s less than five months away from his 34th birthday.

So on the surface, yeah, the Yankees did acquire the same Javy Vazquez in mid-December that they had in 2004. He’s still from Puerto Rico, still throws with his right arm, all that jazz. But no, this is not the same pitcher the Yanks had back then. This version of Vazquez is much more refined, much better at setting up hitters, and as a result, must more effective. That homer by Rollins temporarily brought back some bad memories, but don’t worry. Soon enough, you won’t even be able to recognize the guy when he’s on the mound, and I mean that in the best way possible.

Photo Credit: Kathy Willens, AP

New numbers for new players

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There’s very little official business left for the Yankees to take care of this offseason. They still have to renew the contracts of their 19 pre-arbitration players, but that should happen in the next week or so. Other than that, it’s just show up for Spring Training, assign numbers to the new guys, and get to work.

During his introductory press conference, we learned that Curtis Granderson would be wearing No. 14, giving some credibility to a number that had been used exclusively for spare parts in recent years. The Yankees did make three other significant additions this offseason, though the numbers Nick Johnson, Javy Vazquez, and Randy Winn will sport in 2010 still aren’t listed on the official site.

However, as astute commenter Mo’s Savant noticed, their numbers are listed in MLB.com’s store, available for customizing a shirt or jersey. Of course these aren’t official, but if you’re like me and find a weird satisfaction in these kind of things, it’s worth mentioning. Let’s run through them one by one.

Nick Johnson: No. 26

NJ wore No. 36 during his first stint in the Bronx, but apparently Edwar Ramirez has too firm a grip on it. I suppose Nick could buy it from him in Spring Training, but I’m guessing it’s not that important to him; he wore No. 24 with the Expos/Nationals , and No. 20 with the Marlins. Jose Molina, who will always hold a special place in my heart as the best backup catcher of the Jorge Posada era, was the last to wear No. 26, and before him it belonged to other backup backstops like Wil Nieves, Koyie Hill, and Sal Fasano. The last significant player to wear the number was Orlando Hernandez during the Dynasty Years.

Photo Credit: Linda Kaye, AP

Javy Vazquez: No. 31

A former Yankee like Johnson, Vazquez wore No. 33 during his one season in pinstripes, and did the same with the White Sox and Braves. During the Expo and Diamondback years, Javy rocked No. 23. Nick Swisher is the proud owner of No. 33, and he went out of his way to get the number from Brian Bruney last year, so I don’t think he’s giving it up anytime soon. So Javy is stuck with No. 31, previously worn by Mike Dunn and Ian Kennedy, and Edwar Ramirez and Aaron Small before them. Dave Winfield was the last big time Yankee to wear the number, though Tim Raines also had it during the late-90’s and Steve Karsay during the early-00’s.

Photo Credit: Matthew Gunby, AP

Randy Winn: No. 22

During his time with the Devil Rays, Mariners, and Giants, Winn had always worn No. 2. Obviously, he’s not getting that as a Yankee. Instead, he doubles up on it and takes No. 22 from the departed Xavier Nady. That number has a prominent place in recent Yankee lore, having been worn by Roger Clemens, Robbie Cano, and Jimmy Key with a few LaTroy Hawkinses and Jon Lieberses mixed in. Jorge Posada even wore it for part of the 1997 season, his first full year in the majors as Joe Girardi’s backup.

Photo Credit: Chris O’Meara, AP

Unfortunately, we still don’t have numbers for the likes of Boone Logan or Greg Golson, or any of the prospects added to 40-man after the season either. We’re just going to have to wait for camp to open and see what’s on their backs. I’m happy I can finally buy my Nick Johnson shirt, but damn, did they really raise the price of customizable shirts to $36.99? It’s a recession, you know.

Lackey vs. Vazquez

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Both the Yankees and Red Sox imported a big time starting pitcher this offseason, though they went about it in very different ways. The small market Sox managed to convince Lackey to take a massively below market deal in order to fit him into their tiny payroll (/hyperbole), while the Yanks traded an excellent prospect and two spare parts to bring Javy back. Jay at Fack Youk compared the two pitchers with regards to their polar opposite reputations of clutchiness, and shows that the two aren’t as different as you may think. Make sure you check it out, it’s some great stuff.