The Yankees are in the midst of a five-series, sixteen-game stretch against well below .500 teams, and it could not have come at a better time. They’ve been banged-up for quite some time, and Didi Gregorius joined the walking wounded over the weekend. Wins and losses should never be taken for granted, but if there was ever a time for players to get a little bit of extra rest, it’d be these two-plus weeks.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees played host for a two-game set way back in April, which resulted in a split. Both games were blow-outs, with the Yankees taking the first game 12-1, and the Marlins winning the second 9-1. Some other notes:

• Luis Severino was brilliant in the first game, throwing six scoreless innings and allowing just one hit and one walk, while striking out 8. He picked up fourteen whiffs on 86 pitches, as well.
• Every Yankees starter reached base at least once in that game, and all but Ronald Torreyes reached at least twice.
• The now-injured trifecta of Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Gary Sanchez went a combined 7-for-12 with 6 runs, 3 home runs, 8 RBI, and 3 BB.
• Miguel Andujar was the Yankees offense in the loss. He went 2-for-4 with a double and a home run (he was 2-for-4 with 2 doubles in the first game); the rest of the offense went 2-for-26, with both hits being singles.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

Kyle Barraclough, Lewis Brinson, Garrett Cooper, and Martin Prado are all currently on the disabled list. Barraclough is eligible to be activated today, and there’s a chance that he might be back for this series. The other three aren’t expected to be back for at least another few days. Miguel Rojas is banged-up, too, but he’s listed as day-to-day.

Their Story So Far

The Marlins are bad. They’re 50-76, which is the fourth-worst mark in baseball, with a -173 run differential, which checks in at third-worst. They’re 9-19 since the All-Star break, and just ended a six-game losing skid against the weirdly hapless Washington Nationals. And they’re biggest story so far might just be Jose Urena intentionally throwing at 20-year-old wunderkind Ronald Acuna:

I’m still angry about it. There’s nothing justifiable about Urena’s actions, and Major League Baseball needs to reevaluate how it handles head (or elbow) hunting. But I digress.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager and old friend Don Mattingly has utilized over one-hundred different lineups this season, the result of injuries, trades, and a lack of talent. Their only real constant is the pitcher batting ninth. We’ll probably see something like this, though:

1. Rafael Ortega, RF – .317/.378/.366, 0 HR, 0 SB, 113 OPS+
2. J.T. Realmuto, C – .293/.351/.507, 16 HR, 1 SB, 140 OPS+
3. Brian Anderson, 3B – .274/.352/.396, 9 HR, 2 SB, 112 OPS+
4. Derek Dietrich, 1B – .269/.333/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 115 OPS+
5. Starlin Castro, 2B – .287/.335/.407, 10 HR, 6 SB, 109 OPS+
6. Austin Dean, LF – .176/.222/.412, 1 HR, 0 SB, 75 OPS+
7. JT Riddle, SS – .231/.269/.394, 7 HR, 0 SB, 85 OPS+
8. Magneuris Sierra, CF – .164/.164/.192, 0 HR, 1 SB, 1 OPS+
9. [Pitcher]

Isaac Galloway (166 OPS+ in 27 PA) might see a start in center, and Miguel Rojas (87 OPS+) will start at short if he’s healthy.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Lopez has rocketed through the Marlins organization since being acquired from the Mariners last summer, finishing 2017 at High-A and reaching the majors on June 30, 2018. He made a good first impression, too, holding the Mets to two runs in six innings, striking out five, and keeping the ball on the ground (55.6% grounders). Lopez has had his ups and downs since then, which isn’t too shocking considering that he’s a 22-year-old that made a total of a dozen starts between Double-A and Triple-A – but the potential’s there for a decent mid-rotation starter.

Lopez is a four-pitch guy, working with a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, and a high-70s curve. He has a 52.1% groundball rate on the season, and a strong 6.2% walk rate, to boot.

Last outing (vs. ATL on 8/13) – 5.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Wednesday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Trevor Richards

Richards is also a rookie, having made his debut back on April 2. He spent the month of May back in Triple-A, making six starts, but he’s been with the team the rest of the way. He has an average-ish 4.28 ERA (3.97 FIP) in 90.1 IP to go along with average strikeout rates (22.4%), but he walks a lot of batters (10.2%) and gives up a lot of flyballs (36.2% groundball rate).

The 25-year-old Richards is a three-pitch guy, working with a low-90s four-seamer, a low-80s change-up, and a low-80s curve. His change-up is his out pitch, boasting a strong 41% whiffs per swing rate.

Last outing (vs. ATL on 8/14) – 4.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

The Marlins bullpen ranks:

• 24th in WPA
• 26th in BB%
• 28th in fWAR
• 28th in K%
• 29th in ERA
• 30th in meltdowns

Kyle Barraclough had been the closer, and he racks up strikeouts (25.0%) and walks (13.9%), en route to a 3.75 ERA. Their most reliable reliever otherwise is Drew Steckenrider (3.40 ERA, 27.6% strikeouts in 53.0 IP), with Nick Wittgren (3.63 ERA in 22.1 IP) and Drew Rucinski (3.74 ERA in 21.2 IP) being serviceable in limited duty.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Realmuto has emerged as the best catcher in baseball, with superb offense coupled with strong defense behind the dish. He’s a legitimate star. The Marlins are otherwise a team of journeyman and rookies, and none of those rookies have been terribly exciting so far. As such, I’ll be watching (and hoping) for the Yankees to keep rolling over subpar teams.

The Yankees were expected to have something of an easy weekend, as they headed to Detroit to face the tanking Tigers. A hard-fought victory on Friday cleansed the palate of the bad taste of the Red Sox series (at least to an extent), and then the Yankees were quite literally able to take the weekend off, as freezing rain postponed the second and third games of the series. Up next on the docket: the Marlins.

The Last Time They Met

It has been nearly three years since these teams squared-off, the last time being a four-game home and home series in June of 2015. The series was split right down the middle, with both teams winning their home games. A couple of notes:

• Giancarlo Stanton enjoyed facing the Yankees pitching staff, going 5-of-15 with 2 HR and 4 RBI in the series. And one of those two home runs was his first in Yankee Stadium.
• The Marlins roster is, unsurprisingly, completely different nowadays. Only three of their starting position players from that series remain in the organization, in J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Derek Dietrich. Interestingly enough, that makes their lineup more recognizable than the Yankees – Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius are the only position players from that series that are still with the team.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information on the series.

Injury Report

The willingly depleted Marlins are further hindered by injuries, with Wei-Yin Chen, Garrett Cooper, Martin Prado, J.T. Realmuto, and Dan Straily all on the disabled list. That’s two starting pitchers, two starting position players, and a bench player sidelined for the time being, for what it’s worth. Though, both Realmuto and Straily could be back as early as this week (with the former a possibility for this series).

Their Story So Far

Miami is 4-11 (with a -35 run differential), which is good for the fourth-worst record in the game. They opened the season with a surprising four-game split with the Cubs, and followed that up by dropping nine of their next eleven. And that stretch includes a humiliating 20-1 loss at the hands of the Phillies. None of this is particularly surprising, though, given that the Marlins traded four of their top-five players (by WAR) this off-season, and the fifth has yet to play a game due to a back injury. FiveThirtyEight pegged the Marlins as the worst team in baseball heading into 2018, predicting a 67-95 record, and they’re well on their way to that manner of futility.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Don Mattingly has changed his lineup around quite a bit in this young season, with the only real consistency being Starlin Castro’s presence in the third slot. If their last week or so is any indication of what to expect, we might see something like this:

1. Derek Dietrich, LF
2. Miguel Rojas, SS
3. Starlin Castro, 2B
4. Justin Bour, 1B
5. Brian Anderson, 3B
6. Cameron Maybin, DH
7. J.B. Shuck, RF
8. Lewis Brinson, CF
9. Chad Wallach or Bryan Holaday, C

If Realmuto returns, I expect him to DH and hit somewhere in the first five slots in the lineup.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (6:35 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Caleb Smith

It’s only three starts, but Smith has one of the more interesting pitching lines in baseball thus far. Through 13.1 IP he has a 31.2% strikeout rate, 16.4% walk rate, and a 28.1% groundball rate, which all contribute to his 4.73 ERA (77 ERA+). One assumes that this cannot continue but, given the Marlins depth (or lack therefor), there’s a good chance that we’ll find out in time. It’s worth noting that he has struck out better than a batter per inning in each start, so that isn’t buoyed by one lights out performance

Smith is a three-pitch guy featuring a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, and a low-80s slider. He throws that slider about a third of the time, and batters are hitting just .087 against it in 2018.

Last outing (vs. NYM on 4/10) – 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K

Tuesday (6:35 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Jarlin Garcia

Garcia pitched exclusively out of the bullpen last season, tossing 53.1 innings in 68 appearances. He was frequently used as a LOOGY, but his stuff allowed him to face righties every so often, as well. Garcia came up as a starter, and the move to the bullpen was always supposed to be temporary, so it’s no surprise to see him in the rotation in 2018. And he was working on a no-hitter against the Mets before being pulled because Mattingly felt he was laboring, so the early returns have been quite good.

I can almost copy and paste Smith’s repertoire here, as Garcia throws a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider. The extra ticks on the slider and the groundball tendencies make a world of difference, though.

Last outing (vs. NYM on 4/11) – 6.0 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

The Marlins bullpen has struggled through fifteen games, with a 4.71 ERA in 70.2 IP. Closer Brad Ziegler has an 8.10 ERA, and has allowed at least one run in three of his six appearances. And, going a step further, he has yet to throw a one-two-three inning. They have three additional relievers with at least 5.0 IP and an ERA above 6, too. Set-up man Kyle Barraclough is next in-line to close, and has been solid thus far, as has former Red Sock Junichi Tazawa.

Yankees Connection

Where should I start?

The Marlins CEO is Derek Jeter who will, unfortunately, not be making the trip to Yankee Stadium. He’s joined in the front office by Vice President of Player Development and Scouting Gary Denbo, who filled the same role for the Yankees as recently as last Fall. And, of course, there’s Donnie Baseball in the dugout.

On the player’s side there’s Starlin Castro, Caleb Smith (lest we forget his 7.71 ERA in 18.2 IP with the Yankees last year), and Tyler Cloyd (who pitched at SWB in 2016), as well as the currently injured Martin Prado and Garrett Cooper.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I’m interested to see how (former?) best friends Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro interact in the opportunity arises, as they were always a great deal of fun together in the Bronx. And, on a more comical note, I’m curious to see how the Yankees announcers handle discussing a lineup and pitching staff full of rookies and journeymen.

If you’re looking for player to watch on the Marlins, Lewis Brinson might be the best bet. He’s struggled mightily thus far, but he’s one of the toolsiest young players in the majors, and was a consensus top-30 prospect for each of the last three years.