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The Cardinals, the Athletics, and two recent moves that could potentially impact the Yankees

December 26, 2018 by Mike

Baseball is a zero-sum game. There are only so many wins to go around and every win you add to your roster is a win you take away from everyone else. Everything is interconnected. The Yankees traded for James Paxton? Well, that impacted how the Mariners proceeded with the rest of their offseason, and thus how several other teams proceeded with their offseasons. Everything affects everything else.

In the annual mad transaction rush before the holidays last week, several moves were made that have an indirect impact on the Yankees. Some are more applicable to the Yankees than others, of course, but all those moves do change the offseason calculus for Brian Cashman & Co. Here are two recent transactions and their potential trickle-down effect on the Yankees.

Cardinals sign Andrew Miller

The Cardinals gave Miller a two-year contract with a vesting option to serve as their primary high-leverage reliever. He might close, he might set up, he might do a little of both. Miller joins flamethrower Jordan Hicks and rookie Dakota Hudson in the late innings for St. Louis. The Yankees reportedly had interest in a reunion with Miller and now he’s no longer available. Stinks.

Miller’s deal with the Cardinals is notable because, according to Alex Pavlovic, the Giants had been waiting for him to sign before exploring opportunities to trade their own lefty relievers, specifically Will Smith and Tony Watson. All the teams that lost out on Miller — that includes the Yankees, obviously — could now shift gears and discuss Smith and Watson with San Francisco. They might be the best lefties on the market other than Zach Britton.

Smith, 29, returned from Tommy John surgery and threw 53 innings with a 2.55 ERA (2.07 FIP) and very good strikeout (33.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates in 2018. Remove intentional walks and Smith had a 5.4% walk rate. That’s about as well as you could reasonably expect a pitcher to perform in his first year back from elbow reconstruction. Smith will be a free agent next winter and MLBTR projects a $4.1M salary in 2019. A bargain for a reliever of this caliber in his final arbitration year.

The 33-year-old Watson had a 2.59 ERA (2.45 FIP) in 66 innings this past season, and he too posted strong strikeout (27.6%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He was primarily a sinker guy with the Pirates back in the day but is now more of a four-seamer/slider pitcher, which has led to more strikeouts and fewer grounders. Watson has an unusual contract. He’s guaranteed only $9M from 2018-19 but a boatload of incentives could nearly double it.

The Yankees tried to sign Watson last offseason. Barring a change of heart (always possible), they likely still have some lingering interest. Watson’s contract is complicated and his $4.5M luxury tax hit could quickly become $7M thanks to the bonuses (the exact bonus criteria is unknown), but maybe that’s not a dealbreaker. Smith is younger and cheaper, and he was better this past season. That said, he’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery.

Watson and/or Smith would both be strong additions to the bullpen and we know the Yankees are looking for two relievers. They may be left-handed, but they’re not strict left-on-left matchup guys. They can work full innings. Now that Miller’s off the board and the Giants are ready to gauge the market on their relievers, the Yankees could touch base and rekindle their interest in Watson, or try for Smith.

Athletics trade for Jurickson Profar

Profar was the centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan but we never did hear anything about the Yankees having interest in him. Not this offseason, anyway. We’ve certainly heard it in the past. Instead, the rebuilding Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays last week. Long story short, Texas traded Profar for four Double-A prospects and some international bonus money.

The trade means two things for the Athletics. One, they will not re-sign Jed Lowrie. They have their second baseman in Profar. “Jed was huge … I cannot overstate how important Jed was to this team, and we certainly wish him nothing but the best as his career moves forward,” said A’s GM David Forst to Chris Haft following the trade. Profar will take over at second base and Oakland will redirect their money to starting pitching.

And two, longtime top prospect Franklin Barreto still doesn’t have a place to play. I thought the A’s would move on from Lowrie and install Barreto at second base, but nope, they added Profar. The soon-to-be 23-year-old Barreto has been a consensus top 100 prospect four years running and, prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Originally a shortstop, Barreto has spent time at second base in the minors and majors. He has the arm and range to play shortstop in the bigs, but is better suited for second because his arm at short can be a little erratic. As a hitter, he uses the whole field and has more power than you’d expect from someone his size (5-foot-10, 190 lbs.). He needs to improve his plate discipline to get the most from his above-average bat and surprising power. His plus speed makes him a basestealing threat … If he can become a bit more polished, he can be a first-division regular at second base.

Barreto has had some cups of coffee with the A’s the last two years, hitting .215/.252/.424 (79 wRC+) with seven homers in 151 MLB plate appearances. He’s spent most of the last two seasons in Triple-A and is a career .284/.342/.458 (113 wRC+) hitter with 34 homers in 192 games at the level. It seems like it’s time to see what Barreto can do at the MLB level, you know? Instead, the A’s traded for Profar to play second base.

I don’t blame Oakland one bit. As a small market team, their windows to win are relatively short, and Profar is much better able to help them capitalize on their current window than Barreto. And besides, it’s not like Profar is an older veteran. He’s a 25-year-old former super-elite prospect who seemed to come into his own this past season. There’s a reason he was included in my offseason plan. It appears Profar is about to really break out.

Anyway, the Profar trade means Lowrie has one less suitor, and it may mean Barreto is available in a trade. The Yankees need a middle infielder and they could now pursue Lowrie or Barreto. The A’s really need rotation help. Is there a Sonny Gray-for-Barreto trade framework that makes sense? Oakland has interest in a reunion with Sonny, remember. And if the two teams can’t find common ground in a Barreto trade, is Lowrie’s price right for the Yankees now that the A’s are out of the picture?

* * *

I thought about including the Dodgers releasing Homer Bailey in here as well but nah. He’s pitched so poorly the last few seasons (6.25 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 231.2 innings from 2014-18) that, even at the pro-rated portion of the league minimum as a released player, he doesn’t have many (any?) redeeming qualities. Yeah, Bailey would be a low risk pickup, but it’s also low reward. The Yankees have signed worse pitchers though, so who knows.

The Bailey thing would be whatever. Low cost, low risk, low impact, etc. The Giants putting their top lefty relievers on the trade market and Lowrie having one fewer suitor are not insignificant offseason developments, however. Ditto the Barreto thing if the Athletics do make him available. The Miller signing and Profar trade had nothing to do with the Yankees directly, but those moves do have a domino effect around the league, and the Yankees could be among the teams that benefit.

Saturday Links: Watson, Giambi, YES Network, Kay, Singleton

June 23, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The Yankees and Rays will continue their three-game series with the middle game later this afternoon. Here are some links and notes to check out in the meantime.

Yankees pursued Watson over the winter

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees tried to sign left-hander Tony Watson during the offseason. He instead signed a luxury tax friendly two-year deal worth $9M guaranteed with the Giants. The veteran left-hander has a 1.82 ERA (1.76 FIP) with 29.6% strikeouts and 44.2% grounders in 34.2 innings this year. He’s a full inning southpaw, not a left-on-left matchup guy.

This is pretty interesting to me. The Yankees were trying to beef up their bullpen even more and they were apparently ready to cut Chasen Shreve loose. Hard to see how both would’ve fit in the Opening Day bullpen. The Giants are hanging around the postseason race at the moment, but if San Francisco slips in the standings these next few weeks, I wonder whether the Yankees would pursue Watson at the trade deadline. Intrigue!

Yankees reached out to Giambi about role in organization

Over the winter the Yankees reached out to Jason Giambi to gauge his interest in joining the organization, according to Brendan Kuty. Giambi didn’t specify what sort of position was discussed, though he did say he was not interested in the managerial opening because he has young kids and doesn’t want that much of a commitment. “I think they kind of tested to see where I was at and I just said I wasn’t ready,” he said.

Giambi, now 47, retired following the 2014 season and his name seems to pop up as a managerial or coaching candidate every winter. I’ve always wondered whether he is actually a candidate for those gigs, or are reporters just talking up a guy who was cool with the media as a player? The Yankees reaching out to Giambi over the winter pretty much confirms that he is indeed a candidate for those types of jobs. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the two sides touch base again in the future.

Kay close to new contract with YES

Michael Kay and the YES Network are close to finishing a new contract, reports Andrew Marchand. It’s a three-year deal worth seven figures a season, and it includes a network option for two more years. With Vin Scully retired, Kay is believed the be the highest paid local play-by-play man in baseball. “I don’t see any end in sight. I want to keep doing this as long as I want to and as long as they want me to,” he said to Marchand.

The new contract means Kay will be the voice of the Yankees through at least 2021 and potentially through 2023. My hot take for the weekend: Kay is one of the top play-by-play guys in the sport. Thanks to the magic of MLB.tv, I’ve listened to every broadcast team in recent years, and Kay is better than most. He can get a little annoying when he goes into radio show mode, but he’s good overall. Interestingly enough, Marchand says Ryan Ruocco could see more time in the booth going forward.

YES trying to woo Singleton back

More YES Network news. According to Marchand, YES Network executives are trying to persuade Ken Singleton to return next season. Singleton has already announced he will retire following this season. Marchand says YES is offering Singleton a reduced schedule heavy on games in Baltimore and Tampa, where he has homes. “It’s flattering (YES) wants me to come back … I found out as a player, nobody is irreplaceable. The game keeps going on,” he said.

I love Singleton. He’s one of my favorite broadcasters ever. I love his insight and I love his stories. As much as I’d love to see him stick around and call games forever and ever, Singleton turned 71 last week, and if the man wants to retire, let him retire. He’s been doing this a very long time and I don’t blame him at all for wanting to skip the road trips and the late nights, and spend more time with his family. It’s not like the YES Network is short on broadcasters, you know?

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Tony Watson

December 5, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

It is almost impossible to discuss the Yankees quest to find a reliable left-handed reliever without resorting to hyperbole. The team seems to be perpetually in search of a left-handed specialist, outside of those few months when Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller occupied the same bullpen. Most of that stems from heavy regression from internal candidates – such as Chasen Shreve and Tommy Layne – and it has prevented the team from playing the match-ups in the middle innings over the last season and a half. And, with some options on the free agent market, it seems likely that the Yankees will be on the hunt for a bit of stability in the left-on-left role.

Mike wrote about Jake McGee, the best or second-best left-handed reliever available, last week. Today I’ll be digging into the other contender for that distinction – Tony Watson.

Recent Performance

Tony Watson became an absolute stud in 2013, just as the Pirates transitioned from semi-laughingstock to legitimate playoff contender. He maintained an excellent level of performance for three seasons, but has regressed a bit over the last two years. Check out his numbers over the last five years, for reference:

capture

There are certainly some disconcerting signs, the most notable of which is Watson’s home run rate. Going from three straight seasons of elite home run prevention to back-to-back years of average (or worse) rates isn’t great. Moreover, his strikeout rate also slipped to a career low, even as league-wide rates spiked. Those factors combined to make him less effective – albeit still good – against lefties; it limited his utility as an all-purpose reliever, though.

It is worth noting that Watson was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, and he looked much more like the pitcher he was the previous four years. His strikeout rate (+5.2 percentage points), groundball rate (+15.7 percentage points), home run rate (from 1.35 per 9 to 0.90), and LHH wOBA (from .316 to .279) all improved markedly, and he pitched very well in the playoffs.

The Stuff

Watson is a rare sort of reliever, in that he throws four distinct pitches – a four-seam fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, a sinker in that same range, a change-up in the upper 80s, and a mid-80s slider. His velocity has dipped since 2014, but has remained relatively steady these last three years. Take a look at his usage rates:

brooksbaseball-chart

The slider is Watson’s least-used pitch, and he still throws it between ten and fifteen percent of the time. One thing that stands out about this chart, particularly when you consider his improvements with the Dodgers, is his sinker usage. Take a look at 2017 as a whole:

brooksbaseball-chart-1

Watson went from essentially alternating between his four-seamer and sinker to featuring the latter, and it paid dividends. His strikeout rate jumped back into his career-norm range, and his groundball rate was a tick under 60% – and that’s an excellent combination. Whether or not that is a product of a small sample size or the Dodgers unlocking something in his sinker remains to be seen.

Injury History

It’s kind of remarkable how healthy Watson has been as a professional. He has made at least 67 appearances (including the minors) in each of the last seven seasons, and has never been on the major league disabled list. Watson did miss most of 2009 with inflammation in his left elbow, but he did not require surgery; his only other injury that I can find was when he had Tommy John surgery as a Junior at Nebraska.

Contract Estimates

Both MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs’ crowdsource predicted a two-year, $12 MM deal. That seems a bit light, given his long track record of success, “proven closer” status, and high-profile work with the Dodgers down the stretch and in the playoffs, and it therefore strikes me as incredibly reasonable. There are no comparables out there just yet, given how quiet this off-season has been (and the fact that Mike Minor may be starting for the Rangers), but most relievers of his ilk end up signing for three years and a higher AAV.

Does He Fit the Yankees?

The pre-2017 version and Dodgers version of Watson makes a great deal of sense for the Yankees, as a left-handed reliever that shuts down lefties and is (usually more than) competent against righties. It’s difficult to fully ignore his first-half, though, as well as the trend that we can see between 2016 and 2017.

The Yankees, as an organization, seem to prefer to have a true left-handed specialist, and the aforementioned Shreve does not seem to be it. They also do not seem likely to sink money into a luxury item, given their payroll goals. Figuring out where Watson (or McGee) fits on that continuum is an open-ended question – but if he’s really going to sign for $6 MM a year, I could see him fitting into the team’s plans.