River Avenue Blues

Fan Confidence Poll: March 11th, 2019

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Spring Training Record: 8-6-2 (81 RS, 69 RA)
Spring Training Schedule This Week: Monday OFF; Tuesday vs. Braves (YES, MLB.tv); Wednesday vs. Phillies (no TV); Thursday at Blue Jays (MLB.tv); Friday vs. Red Sox (YES, MLB.tv, MLBN); Saturday vs. Orioles (YES, MLB.tv); Sunday at Orioles (ss) (MLB.tv); Sunday at Phillies (ss) (MLB.tv)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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March 10th Spring Training Notes: Hicks, King, Abreu

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(Presswire)

The split squad Yankees beat the Pirates at home today. Brett Gardner (two), Giancarlo Stanton, and Clint Frazier all had singles while Gio Urshela went deep. J.A. Happ started and allowed three runs (two homers) in four innings. He struck out six. Dellin Betances had a Bad Dellin outing (0.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K) but otherwise Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Holder, and Tommy Kahnle pitched well. Here’s the box score for the home game.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Yankees tied the Tigers on the road. Miguel Andujar had a double and a single, and minor league call-up du jour Brandon Wagner hit a home run. Estevan Florial had a base hit as well. Not a single projected big leaguer pitched in the game. Chance Adams allowed three hits in two scoreless innings and Danny Farquhar got roughed up again. Great story, bad spring thus far. Here’s the box score for the road game, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • Aaron Hicks (back) is feeling better, though he’s still going to see a doctor tomorrow, and Aaron Boone said Hicks will go through a full workout before returning to game action. [Brendan Kuty]
  • Mike King (elbow) has apparently been cleared to resume throwing. He played catch and posted a video on Twitter yesterday. King was shut down with a stress reaction about a month ago.
  • Another roster cut was announced: Albert Abreu. He’s been optioned out and sent to minor league camp, the Yankees announced. I unofficially count 58 players still in big league camp.

The Yankees have an off-day tomorrow. It’s their final off-day of the Grapefruit League season and it’s a total off-day. No workouts scheduled or anything. The Yankees will be back at it Tuesday night at home against the Orioles. I’m not sure who’s pitching but Jonathan Loaisiga and James Paxton line up. Maybe both will pitch. Anyway, Tuesday night’s game will be televised live.

The Obligatory Gio Gonzalez Post

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(Getty)

Last week, I wrote the first nice thing I think I’ve ever written about Luis Cessa, which was predicated on him being a reliever, not a starter. A day later, Luis Severino had to stop warming up for a game because of right shoulder inflammation. Later on in the week, the Yankees announced that both Severino and CC Sabathia would be starting the year on the Injured List and all of a sudden, Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga are staring down an opportunity to make the Major League rotation to start the year, rather than the bullpen. As this will shallow the Yankees’ depth, it may make sense to search outside the organization for help; that brings us to Gio Gonzalez.

I’m going with Gonzalez rather than, say, Dallas Keuchel because last week, Gonzalez was linked to the Yankees, not Keuchel. I’ll also say, in the spirit of disclosure, that I’ve always liked Gonzalez as a pitcher. Why? I have no idea; he’s just a guy I’ve always been a fan of. This bias of sorts leads me to think that he’d probably be better than one of the Yankees’ depth options, mostly on experience alone, but let’s see if it’d be worth that.

Depending on where you look, Gonzalez either had a decent year last year (2.0 fWAR, 2.2 WARP) or a pretty bad year (0.7 bWAR) in 171 innings between the Nationals and the Brewers. The numbers behind all that? A 4.21 ERA; a 4.42 RA; a 4.16 FIP; and a 4.17 DRA. His walk rate was 10.7, the first time he’d gone that high since 2011. His strikeout rate was 19.8, his first time ever under 20%. His home run rate, dropped to 10.4 HR/FB%, trending right after two years at 11.1 (2017) and 12.5 (2016). His groundball rate was 45.3%, his lowest since 2014, continuing a downward trend. His fastball velocity has also waned since 2016, something to be expected of a player who’ll turn 34 in September. But, in a fashion that might fit the Yankees, he features something else other than a straight fastball by throwing a sinker. He’s also upped his changeup usage by about 5% from 2017 and about 8% from 2016.

None of those trends really scream out ‘sign me,’ do they? I’ll answer my own question and say they do not, but there are some positives. His groundball rate is still passable, especially when we look more closely at the pitch data from 2018. His sinker, changeup, and curveball all got over 50% GB/BIP, which is great. His four seamer dragged it down at 25% GB/BIP. If Gonzalez focuses less and less on his fastball and more on his sinker, changeup, and curve, he can maybe return to a more prominent position with grounders. Additionally, his change and curve have better whiff/swing rates that his fastball does, which could lead to another uptick in strikeouts.

Basically, the entire idea of Gonzalez comes down to those ifs. Are those ifs worth the risk? Maybe? Gonzalez is a veteran pitcher who comes with a track record. He’s likely to be better–even with his warts–than Cessa and probably German, but Loaisiga’s upside is hard to ignore; however, his health is such a question mark that Gonzalez may be the better play to start. Again, it comes down to another if.

If Gonzalez is okay with a one-year deal, sign him. There’s minimal risk and there are still the minor league options to back him up. If he wants a multi-year deal, I think it’s easy to pass.

March 9th Spring Training Notes: Opening Day starter, Hicks, Gregorius, Sabathia, Frazier

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The Yankees doubled and defensed their way to a win over the Orioles tonight. Tyler Wade, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, and Billy Burns all had two-baggers. Angel Aguilar socked a dinger and Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird both had singles. Sanchez’s was a ground ball that deflected off the diving third baseman’s glove and through the shortstop’s legs, so yeah, woo Spring Training. The Yankees turned in several stellar defensive plays as well. Total opposite of last night, when they kicked the ball around.

Luis Cessa started and looked about as good as he’s looked at any point in his big league career. Thirteen up, 12 down, four strikeouts. He filled up the strike zone with everything. Looked great. Maybe it’ll last this time. Albert Abreu labored and walked three in his 1.1 innings. Phil Diehl struck out two of the five batters he faced. He’s struck out nine of the 19 batters he’s faced this spring, or 47.4%. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • It is official: Masahiro Tanaka will start Opening Day. Aaron Boone made the announcement earlier today. It’ll be his fourth Opening Day start in the last five years. James Paxton and J.A. Happ will start the second and third games of the regular season, respectively. [Kristie Ackert]
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) has started taking dry swings. Hooray for that. “He’s doing some dry swinging. He’s already started a little bit with the fungo. Real bat? Probably the first of next week. It’s kind of a graduation there,” said Boone. Good news. [Kristie Ackert]
  • Aaron Hicks (back) is still experiencing discomfort and will see a doctor Monday. It sure sounds like the issue everyone insists is nothing is turning into something. Good thing there’s still more than two weeks to go until Opening Day. [James Wagner]
  • CC Sabathia (knee) threw 31 pitches in his fourth bullpen session of the spring earlier today. He’s likely to face hitters in live batting practice next. Progress. [Associated Press]
  • Boone seemed to indicate Clint Frazier will begin the season with Triple-A Scranton. “He needs to play every day. That doesn’t necessarily mean (the at-bats) don’t come here. We expect him to impact our club this year,” said Boone. [George King]
  • And finally, Paxton will be away from the Yankees for a few days. There was a death in his family. Our condolences go out to him and his family. [George King]

If you’re interested, tonight’s game will be replayed on MLB Network (2am ET). The Yankees have a pair of split squad games tomorrow afternoon. Sadly, neither game will be televised. J.A. Happ will start the home game against the Pirates and Nestor Cortes will start the road game against the Tigers. Randy Miller has the travel squad roster. Not many regulars, as you’d expect.

Spring Training Game Thread: Rotation Competition Continues

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(Presswire)

Opening Day is inching closer. I know that because the night Grapefruit League games are piling up. The Yankees will play their second straight night game tonight and their third of the spring overall. They have a few next week as well. Two weeks and five days until Opening Day. Gettin’ closer.

Anyway, the rotation competition continues tonight. Luis Cessa is starting and, at this point, it’s not a question of “if” he’ll make the Opening Day rotation, just “what role.” Cessa’s had a nice little spring (5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K), but it’s only five innings, so who cares. Still better than getting rocked, I guess. Here is the Orioles’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use tonight:

  1. 2B Tyler Wade
  2. SS Gleyber Torres
  3. C Gary Sanchez
  4. 1B Greg Bird
  5. LF Clint Frazier
  6. DH Mike Ford
  7. 3B Gio Urshela
  8. RF Trey Amburgey
  9. CF Billy Burns

RHP Luis Cessa

Available Position Players: C Kellin Deglan, C Kyle Higashioka, C Jorge Saez, 1B Chris Gittens, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Diego Castillo, IF L.J. Mazzilli, IF Hoy Jun Park, OF Isiah Gilliam, OF Jeff Hendrix, OF Pablo Olivares. Deglan, Higashioka, and Saez are non-roster players. Everyone else is up from minor league camp for the road trip.

Available Pitchers: RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Daniel Alvarez, RHP Cale Coshow, LHP Danny Coulombe, LHP Phil Diehl, RHP Matt Frawley, RHP Joe Harvey, LHP Anderson Severino, LHP Stephen Tarpley. Alvarez, Frawley, and Severino are the extra arms from minor league camp.

The Yankees made the hour-plus bus trip down to Sarasota for tonight’s game. The weather’s good and first pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm ET. You can watch tonight’s game on MLB.tv anywhere or on MASN in the O’s home market. There is no YES Network broadcast for tonight’s game. Enjoy.

Saturday Links: Sabathia, YES Network, Rule Changes

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(Presswire)

The Yankees will continue their Grapefruit League season on the road against the Orioles tonight. That is a 6pm ET start and the game will be televised. Luis Cessa will start and make his case for an Opening Day rotation spot. Until then, here’s some news to check out.

Sabathia joins ESPN

CC Sabathia’s post-playing career is starting now. Earlier this week ESPN announced Sabathia is joining the network in a variety of roles. Sabathia told Bryan Hoch he’ll make 15 in-studio appearances on various shows (SportsCenter, First Take, etc.) this year — only on days he’s not pitching, of course — as well as several call-in appearances. Most appearances will cover non-baseball sports.

“As I begin to look toward the future, I’m excited to have this opportunity with ESPN. With that said, my singular focus is on winning another World Series Championship for Yankees fans and the city of New York,” Sabathia said in a statement. Based on his podcast, Sabathia seems very well suited for a media gig like this. He knows his sports and I couldn’t imagine him sitting in a broadcast booth calling or analyzing a game. This seems like a better fit.

Yankees reach deal to buy back YES Network

After weeks of rumors, the Yankees have reached a deal to purchase the 80% of the YES Network they do not own from 21st Century Fox, report Josh Kosman and Richard Morgan. It’ll cost them $3.47 billion and the deal has 120 days to close. Amazon and the Sinclair Broadcast Group are among the investors. With the deal, Amazon will be in position to control streaming rights for Yankees (and Nets) games.

The YES Network was valued at $3.9 billion when the Yankees sold an 80% stake to 21st Century Fox in 2012. Disney has a deal in place to buy 21st Century Fox and must sell off various regional sports networks to get approval. I’m not sure what this means for streaming Yankees games in the short-term. Kevin Draper and Edmund Lee indicate Yankees games could be included in Amazon Prime memberships. The sale isn’t final yet, and as more information comes in, I’ll be sure to pass it along.

MLB, MLBPA nearing rule change agreement

According to Ron Blum and Jeff Passan, MLB and the MLBPA are expected to ratify a series of rule changes at some point before Opening Day. Among them is a change to All-Star Game voting. The new system will be a two-step process. The first vote will pick three finalists at each position. The second will be a one-day race to pick a starter from the three finalists. Sounds fun. Here are details on the other forthcoming rule changes:

  • 26-man rosters with a 13-pitcher maximum (begins in 2020).
  • 28-man rosters with a 14-pitcher maximum in September (begins in 2020).
  • Injured list and optional assignment minimum increase to 15 days (begins in 2020).
  • Extra innings in the All-Star Game begin with a runner on second base (begins in 2019).
  • No pitch clock until at least 2022.

I am totally cool with expanding rosters to 26 players. I don’t like limiting the number of roster spots that can be used for pitchers and I am strongly against limiting September call-ups. Many players are going to miss out on a big league opportunity (and a month’s worth of big league salary) because of that. What would Stephen Tarpley’s outlook be right now had he not gotten an opportunity to come up last September? Making it more difficult to reward minor leaguers for a good season, audition young players for next season, and rest fatigued regulars seems like a bad idea.

MLB announces Atlantic League experiments

Last week MLB and the independent Atlantic League announced a partnership in which MLB will use the Atlantic League to test various rule and equipment changes. In exchange, MLB will install Trackman (i.e. Statcast) at all eight Atlantic League parks and take over as official statistician, and increase their scouting coverage of the league. Yesterday MLB announced the changes they’ll test this year. The list:

  • Trackman will assist umpires with calling balls and strikes.
  • No mound visits except for pitching changes or injury situations.
  • Three-batter minimum for pitchers unless they complete an inning (or get injured).
  • Increase size of first, second, and third bases from 15 inches square to 18 inches square.
  • Require two infielders on each side of second base when a pitch is released.
  • Reduce time between innings from two minutes, five seconds to one minute, 45 seconds.
  • Move the pitching mound back two feet to 62 feet, 6 inches from home plate.

“Players sign in the Atlantic League for the Major League Baseball showcase opportunity it offers. We are excited to see that showcase grow exponentially, while working with MLB on initiatives critical to the future of the game,” said Atlantic League president Rich White in a statement. Making the bases larger will help avoid collisions and hands and ankles getting stepped on, so that’s a plus. I don’t like the three-batter minimum for pitchers or eliminating shifts, but whatever. I’m fighting a losing battle.

Moving the mound back is a seismic change and, weirdly, it will only happen during the second half of the Atlantic League season. They’re going to move the mound back midseason! I assume MLB is looking for ways to increase balls in play and reduce strikeouts. Is this the best way to do it? I have no idea. That’s why they’re giving it a test run. The big concern here is health. The extra two feet and theoretical increase in contact isn’t worth it if pitchers are getting hurt.

March 8th Spring Training Notes: Sevy, Hicks, Montgomery

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s game to the Tigers. Giancarlo Stanton clocked a long home run while DJ LeMahieu and Austin Romine added doubles. Romine, Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Brett Gardner had singles as well. Kyle Holder provided two hits off the bench, including a solo homer. Even the glove first guys in the farm system have power.

Masahiro Tanaka started and allowed two runs in 3.1 innings, striking out five. Domingo German allowed three runs in his three innings and was victimized by some real sloppy defense. It was sloppy all night, mostly because the non-roster guys and minor league call-ups wscrewed things up. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • The Yankees have selected an Opening Day starter. They’ll tell us who it is once they break the news to the players. I imagine we’ll get an update pretty soon. Within a day or two. The majority of RAB readers believe it should be Masahiro Tanaka. [Lindsey Adler]
  • Luis Severino (shoulder) received his cortisone shot and feels much better. There’s no longer any pain when he lifts his arm. Aaron Hicks (back) has resumed baseball activities but the Yankees are going to hold him out of games until after Monday’s off-day. [Kristie Ackert, Pete Caldera]
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) has stretched his throwing out to 120 feet. The next step is throwing off a half-mound, then a full mound. I wrote the Montgomery season preview and we get a rehab update. How convenient. [Bryan Hoch]
  • DJ LeMahieu has started working out at first base and will begin playing there next week. He’s played four games at third base and two games at second base so far this spring. [Bryan Hoch]

If you’re interested, tonight’s game will be replayed on YES Network (10:30pm ET) and MLB Network (11:30pm ET). The Yankees will be back at it tomorrow against the Orioles. That’s another night game. Luis Cessa is the scheduled starter. That game will be televised live.