River Avenue Blues

Spring Training Game Thread: The Ongoing Rotation Battle

by

John E. Lasagna. (Presswire)

The next time the Yankees come out of an off-day, it’ll be the regular season. Yesterday was their final off-day of Spring Training, and over these next two weeks the Yankees have a few roster battles to decide. Most notably, the fourth and fifth starter’s spots with Luis Severino and CC Sabathia slated to begin the season on the injured list.

Jonathan Loaisiga will make his latest case for the rotation this evening. He’s allowed five runs in seven innings this spring, though it’s really just one bad inning that ruins his numbers. Loaisiga’s thrown the ball pretty well. Besides, the Yankees might not have much choice but to use him in the rotation at this point. Here is the Orioles’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees will use tonight:

  1. CF Brett Gardner
  2. RF Aaron Judge
  3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
  4. 1B Luke Voit
  5. 3B Miguel Andujar
  6. C Gary Sanchez
  7. DH Greg Bird
  8. SS Troy Tulowitzki
  9. 2B DJ LeMahieu

RHP Jonathan Loaisiga

Available Position Players: C Kellin Deglan, C Francisco Diaz, C Kyle Higashioka, C Jorge Saez, 1B Mike Ford, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Kyle Holder, IF Gosuke Katoh, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Devyn Bolasky, OF Estevan Florial, UTIL Tyler Wade. Katoh and Bolasky are extra players from minor league camp.

Available Pitchers: LHP Zach Britton, LHP Rex Brothers, LHP Aroldis Chapman, RHP Cale Coshow, RHP Chad Green, RHP Jonathan Holder, LHP Trevor Lane, LHP Stephen Tarpley, RHP Greg Weissert.  Lane and Weissert are extra arms from minor league camp.

It is cloudy and cool in Tampa this evening. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm ET and the game will be shown live on YES and MLB.tv. Enjoy the game, folks.

The Yankees and the potential for another record-setting home run season in 2019

by

As expected, the Yankees broke the single-season home run record last season. It’s usually silly to say a team or a player is expected to break a record, especially a home run record, but once the Giancarlo Stanton trade went down, the expectation was the Yankees would at least challenge the homer record, if not break it. Break it they did.

Here is a real quick recap of the home run records set by the 2018 Yankees:

  • Single-season record with 267 home runs, three more than the 1997 Mariners.
  • Most players with double-digit homers (12!).
  • First team to get 20+ homers from all nine lineup spots.

That last bullet point is insane. Insane. The Yankees did not set the home run record because one or two (or three) players had historic power seasons. Stanton led the team with 38 homers and no one else had more than 27. The Yankees set the record with a deep power attack. They could hit the ball out of the park one through nine.

(Presswire)

Despite losing Didi Gregorius for half the season or so, the Yankees are again in position to set a new single-season home run record in 2019. In fact, it’s not unrealistic to think they could shatter the record when you consider everything that worked against them last season. The Yankees hit those 267 homers last year despite …

  • Aaron Judge missing seven weeks with a wrist injury (and being ineffective thereafter).
  • Gary Sanchez missing two months with groin injuries (and being pretty bad when healthy).
  • Giancarlo Stanton having what qualifies as a down season compared to the rest of his career.
  • Gleyber Torres spending most of April in Triple-A.

“You get this whole team healthy, we’re going to crush the record that we set last year,” said Judge to Coley Harvey recently, stating the obvious. “We’ve got a good team, a lot of guys that could make a lot of solid contact, and a lot of big boys that when they make contact, man, it goes. We’re a team that’s primed and ready to do that.”

The health qualifier is a big one. We know the Yankees won’t make it through 2019 healthy — Gregorius is already hurt and Aaron Hicks is nursing a back issue — because no team makes it through the season healthy. Injuries are part of the game. The teams that best replace injured players are the teams that usually find themselves in October.

That all said, the Yankees should hit a lot of home runs even when they deal with injuries. Look at last season. Judge and Sanchez combined to play 76 fewer games and hit 40 fewer home runs in 2018 than 2017, yet the Yankees still set the record. This team is not reliant on one or two players. That’s what makes them so dangerous. It’s a deep offense.

From 1995-2017, fewer runs were scored per game in the postseason than the regular season, but homers per game went up. Translation: Home runs were more valuable in the postseason than the regular season. That was not the case last postseason …

  • 2018 regular season: 4.45 runs per game and 1.15 homers per game
  • 2018 postseason: 4.00 runs per game and 1.08 homers per game

… but last year is the outlier. The ongoing narrative that you can’t hit home runs in the postseason doesn’t jibe with the numbers, yet it persists. Whatever. Hitting a homer is the single best thing a hitter can do in any at-bat and last year the Yankees did it better than anyone. There’s reason to believe they’ll do it better than anyone this year as well.

Obviously the goal is to win games and the World Series, not set home run records, but one contributes to the other. Hit a lot of home runs and you’re going to win a lot of games. With good health, the Yankees very well might shatter last year’s home run record. Even with the usual slate of injuries, they still have a chance to dethrone last year’s record-setting offense.

“So far in camp, everybody’s healthy, everybody’s hungry and working hard,” Brett Gardner said to Harvey. “Yeah, I expect us to have a better year, collectively, and not just me, or Giancarlo or (Greg) Bird or whoever. But collectively as a unit, I expect us to be a better offense and score more runs.”

James Paxton’s first year in pinstripes [2019 Season Preview]

by

(Presswire)

James Paxton, also known as The Big Maple, was the Yankees biggest acquisition following the 2018 campaign. The tall southpaw came over from the Mariners, where he grew into their number one starter as Felix Hernandez declined. Paxton has made a good early impression in camp, allowing just one run in his first three starts. Despite being the prize of the team’s offseason, there seemingly hasn’t been much hubbub about him since pitchers and catchers reported. And that’s not a bad thing, rather, it seems like he’s simply put his head down and gone to work. Still, the spotlight will be on the 30-year-old once the regular season begins, especially while Luis Severino is unavailable.

The de facto ace

The Yankees already had an ace —  Severino — before they acquired Paxton. Whether you want to call him and Severino 1A and 1B, or declare Paxton as a number two, one thing is for sure: he’s the ace as long as Severino’s out. Of course, an ace is just a moniker that gets thrown around. There was always going to be plenty of pressure on Paxton to perform like a top-shelf starter this season, but now with Severino’s return in question, The Big Maple’s margin for error has shrunk.

Masahiro Tanaka may have gotten the opening day nod in place of Severino, but that doesn’t minimize the importance of Paxton’s performance out of the gate. It sounds like the Yankees and Severino dodged a bullet, meaning that he could be back in mid-to-late April, but those games still matter. The rest of the rotation will need to pick up the slack and Paxton will be a major player. Leading a pitching staff is nothing new for Paxton, of course. He’s been that guy for Seattle in recent years. He should be up to the task.

Can he stay healthy?

Paxton has become quite familiar with the injured list during his major league career:

  1. 4/9/14 – 8/27/14: Strained left latissimus dorsi
  2. 5/29/15 – 9/13/15: Strained tendon in left middle finger
  3. 8/16/16 – 8/25/16: Left elbow contusion
  4. 5/5/17 – 5/31/17: Left forearm strain
  5. 8/11/17 – 9/15/17: Strained left pectoral muscle
  6. 7/13/18 – 7/30/18: Lower back inflammation
  7. 8/15/18 – 9/1/18: Left forearm contusion

It’s daunting to know that Paxton’s been on the shelf seven times since he reached the majors, but it’s worth noting that a couple of these injuries were merely bad luck. The elbow and forearm contusions were the result of line drives that struck him. The other maladies are a cause for concern, but on the bright side, only his forearm strain in May of 2017 is alarming. It’s been nearly two year since that injury, and fortunately, nothing else has been arm related.

We already know that the best predictor of future injury are past injuries. Unfortunately, that’s not good news for Paxton. Nonetheless, his workload has been trending in a positive direction over the past three seasons, culminating in a career high 160.1 innings last year. Chances are that the southpaw will hit the shelf at some point this season, but hopefully it’s just a short-term stint.

Pitching in a new home ballpark

I wrote about Paxton’s transition from Seattle to the Bronx about a month ago. His old home was known for it’s tilt toward pitchers, whereas his new digs is homer-friendly. Up until last season, Paxton did an excellent job preventing home runs. After running very low HR/9 numbers, he spiked to 1.29 in 2018. If that’s his true talent level with regard to home run prevention, that means another increase could be in store in pinstripes.

I’m not going to do a rewrite of my previous post here, but the point is that it will be something to watch for. Hopefully, it turns out that last year was more of a fluke driven by an inflated home run to fly ball ratio. If that’s the case, Paxton should pitch brilliantly. If not, it’s not like he’ll be useless. He still excels in many other ways that will allow him to succeed.

Will the Yankees leave him alone?

Last week, Sonny Gray made some waves about the Yankees’ pitching philosophy. In short: Gray was not pleased about the emphasis the team put on throwing breaking balls. He pretty much put the blame on the Yankees for his struggles during his tenure in the Bronx. Even though things didn’t work out with Gray, there’s a reason the Yankees have implemented an anti-fastball philosophy: it generally works. If Gray taught the team anything, it’s that a one size fits all approach probably doesn’t work, despite Gray’s underlying numbers making his breaking pitches look great.

We shouldn’t have to worry about the team making any drastic tweaks to Paxton’s style. He throws his fastball and cutter more than three-quarters of the time, for good reason. Not only has it proven very effective for him, but his curveball doesn’t look like something with significant potential. It’s not that it’s a bad pitch, but rather, that it doesn’t appear to have too much upside by throwing it more often. It’s in the third percentile, or near the very bottom, of the league in terms of spin rate.

The team will certainly look for ways to help Paxton improve, but there isn’t any reason to think it’ll be via the anti-fastball approach. It could be something to help with command, for instance.

Projections

PECOTA: 156 innings, 3.32 ERA, 3.44 DRA, 3.6 WARP

ZiPS: 147.1 innings, 3.54 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.6 WAR

Steamer: 172 innings, 3.47 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.0 WAR

The consensus is that Paxton will be very good this year, which comes as no shock. Playing time is where these systems differ. Steamer is the closest to a full year’s work, but clearly, all systems expect some missed time.

Would you sign up for a mid-3 ERA like these systems project? Paxton authored a 3.76 ERA last season, though he’s also just a year removed from a 2.98 ERA. That’s more like the kind of number we’re all dreaming of. That’s more or less the difference between an ace and a solid number two or three starter. Any of those outcomes would be just fine, but having another frontline starter would be ideal (obviously).

Final Thoughts

I’m really excited to watch Paxton this year. I think in past years, I would have been a bit more worried about acquiring someone like him because of his injury history. Would it be great to have a staff of 200 innings workhorses? Of course. But baseball has changed, for better or worse, over the last decade or so and there simply aren’t a bunch of a 200 inning pitchers lying in wait anymore. Paxton has the ability to be one of the league’s best starters on a per inning basis, and he certainly appears capable of giving 150 stellar innings this year. If he can do that and pitch well in the postseason, no one will care if he doesn’t make 32 or 33 regular season starts.

Thoughts following the last Grapefruit League off-day

by

(Presswire)

The Grapefruit League season is halfway complete. More than halfway complete, really. The Yankees have played 16 of their 32 exhibition games and had another rained out, so there are only 15 spring games to go. Thirteen of those 15 games will be televised live. Hooray for that. Anyway, I have some thoughts on the current state of Yankees affairs, so let’s get to ’em.

1. One Spring Training performance that matters: Clint Frazier is 4-for-25 (.160) with two extra-base hits (both doubles) and eight strikeouts. The crummy 30 plate appearance showing does not mean Frazier is a bust or that his career outlook has changed. Guys go 4-for-25 all the time. In Frazier’s case, he needed a monster spring to have any chance at making the Opening Day roster. Struggling through camp isn’t going to land him the final bench spot over Tyler Wade, who can play pretty much everywhere and is having the superior Grapefruit League season. An injury could still land Frazier on the Opening Day roster. (Aaron Hicks’ back thing is lingering.) That’s pretty much his only path to a roster spot now. Missing all that time last year with the concussion and post-concussion issues meant it was always likely Frazier would wind up in Triple-A to get regular at-bats (Aaron Boone indicated as much over the weekend), and he hasn’t done anything this spring to change the team’s mind. Seventy-three days in the minors pushes Frazier’s free agency back from the 2023-24 offseason to the 2024-25 offseason. I don’t think the Yankees are planning to game his service time because their singular focus right now is winning the World Series, and if they need Frazier in the big leagues, they’re going to call him up. I also don’t think it’s crazy to think Frazier could sit in the minors until mid-June before getting a chance to platoon (or replace) Brett Gardner in left field. We’ll see. For now, Frazier needed a strong Spring Training to make the Opening Day roster, and it hasn’t happened. Most spring performances don’t matter. This one did.

2. Speaking of the Hicks injury, it’s worrisome the back stiffness/soreness/whatever they’re calling it today has continued to linger, though Dan Martin reports Hicks took swings from both sides of the plate and played catch Sunday, so it’s not like he’s shut down completely. I have to think the Yankees are playing it safe with Opening Day still more than two weeks away. Still, it would be nice to get Hicks back out on the field soon so he can get his timing down and all that. Anyway, the Yankees do not have much center field depth right now. Gardner is the obvious candidate to play center field should Hicks miss time during the regular season — the Hicks injury might be Frazier’s only path to an Opening Day roster spot right now — though I’m not sure playing 35-year-old Brett Gardner in center field full-time is a good idea. That’s a good way to wear him down. Aaron Judge could play center here and there, but I don’t think the Yankees want to do that regularly. Frazier? Nah. Tyler Wade? Probably not. He’s played five different positions this spring and none are center field. (I have to think they’ll throw him out there at some point should Hicks remain sidelined.) A trade? Eh, that’s not likely. The March trade market usually doesn’t have much to offer. Maybe the Diamondbacks would part with Jarrod Dyson after the Adam Jones signing, but Dyson has been nursing an oblique injury this spring and may not be ready for Opening Day himself. That doesn’t solve the center field problem should Hicks miss time. Hopefully yesterday’s doctor appointment went well and Hicks will begin ramping up his workouts and return to game action soon. If this thing continues to linger, the Yankees will have to figure out something in center field, because I don’t think Gardner can play out there every single day at this point of his career.

3. The most exciting player in camp so far? Estevan Florial! It’s always fun when the top prospect shines in Spring Training. Florial is hitting .333/.385/.542 with two doubles, one home run, and four stolen bases through 26 plate appearances. (For what it’s worth, Baseball-Reference’s opponent quality metric says Florial has faced mostly Double-A caliber pitching this spring.) Those 26 plate appearances are fourth most on the team behind Clint Frazier (30), Greg Bird (28), and Tyler Wade (27) — Hicksie’s back issue surely led to Florial getting more playing time than expected — and that home run he hit last week was awfully impressive. He turned around a 95 mph (on the television radar gun) fastball and drove it the other way over the left-center field wall.

“I mean, wow. It’s a short list of people that can hit a ball like that. I told that to Reggie Jackson on the bench. He was quick to tell me that he was one of those,” Aaron Boone said after the game. Florial’s big Spring Training doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things — is he a better prospect now that he was three weeks ago? are teams changing their short and long-term evaluations of him based on 26 Grapefruit League plate appearances? nope — but it is certainly more fun to watch than the top prospect not doing much of anything. Florial played 75 games with High-A Tampa around the wrist injury last year and wasn’t very good, so I think he’ll return to that level to begin this season, with a quick promotion to Double-A Trenton in the cards should he come out of the gate strong. It’s been a good spring for him so far. It’s always a blast when the kids play well in Spring Training.

4. The Danny Farquhar comeback is the feel-good story of the spring. That he’s made it back on to a big league field less than a year after battling a life-threatening brain hemorrhage is truly remarkable. He’s getting cheered on the road and that’s pretty cool. As for his Spring Training performance, it has not been good (2 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 0 K), and he didn’t look like a Major League pitcher in his lone televised outing. The fastball was 88-89 mph and all over the place, and the offspeed pitches weren’t fooling anyone. That is totally understandable after the guy missed basically the entire 2018 season and nearly died. Farquhar is still working his way back into baseball shape and any slim chance he had at making the Opening Day roster is gone. He doesn’t look ready for it. “Physically, I feel great. The butterflies are gone. I just think it’s the kinks of not being in competition for ten months. The game speeds up as opposed to sim games or live BP. I think more repetition will get me more comfortable,” Farquhar said to Randy Miller over the weekend. Based on the little we’ve seen, I think the Yankees are going to hold him back in Tampa and have him continue to build strength and work to regain form in Extended Spring Training rather than assign him to Triple-A Scranton on Opening Day. It might only take a few weeks. He could be with the RailRiders before the end of April. Given the state of the bullpen, it’ll take injuries (plural) or unexpected poor performances (also plural) for Farquhar to earn a call-up to the big leagues this year. Who knows though. David Hale and George Kontos managed to appear in games for the 2018 Yankees. For now, it’s wonderful to see Farquhar back on the field after what he went through last year. It’s also clear he has a long way to go before helping the Yankees.

5. The Yankees still have 58 players in big league camp based on my unofficial count and that seems like an awful lot with two weeks and two days to go until Opening Day. I reckon we’re going to see a big round of cuts soon. The Yankees still have seven catchers in camp and that’s probably two or three too many at this point. Kellin Deglan, Jorge Saez, and Francisco Diaz are the obvious candidates to be sent to minor league camp with Kyle Higashioka and Ryan Lavarnway sticking around to support Gary Sanchez and Austin Romine. The big leaguers are going to start playing more and more these next two weeks, which means kids like Florial, Thairo Estrada, Kyle Holder, and Trey Amburgey have to go to minor league camp soon to ensure everyone gets the at-bats they need to get ready for the season. They can’t continue to get two at-bats every other day, you know? Eventually depth arms like Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Cale Coshow, Danny Coulombe, and Raynel Espinal will be sent out as well. The Yankees will play their final exhibition game two weeks from yesterday. There are only so many innings and at-bats remaining and 58 players in camp can’t last much longer. My guess is that number will be reduced to 40-something by the weekend and 30-something by the middle of next week.

6. The Jose Leclerc extension sets the market for a Chad Green extension, right? Leclerc had an unreal 2018 season (1.56 ERA and 1.90 FIP in 57.2 innings) and last week the Rangers gave him four years and $14.75M guaranteed, with two club options that could push the total value to $27M across six years. Green and Leclerc both arrived in the big leagues for good in 2017 and they have almost exactly the same amount of service time. Green’s 2017-18 numbers are a bit better though:

Service Time IP ERA FIP K% BB% WAR
Green 2.050 144.2 2.18 2.33 35.8% 5.8% +5.0
Leclerc 2.041 103.1 2.61 3.04 35.2% 15.4% +3.2

Green has faced 128 more batters than Leclerc the last two years and issued 33 fewer walks, but, to be fair to Leclerc, he cut his walk rate from 20.0% last year to 11.2% this year. That’s progress. Also, he took over as Texas’ closer late last year and will presumably keep the job going forward. Anyway, I think the Leclerc deal is a good framework for Green. Non-closing relievers usually don’t make much through arbitration. Dellin Betances has been as good as any reliever in baseball the last five years and he’ll make $15.7325M during the four-year stretch covered by Leclerc’s contract (one pre-arbitration year and three arbitration years). Four guaranteed years at $14.75M seems like a pretty good deal for Green, who was not a high draft pick and didn’t get a large signing bonus ($100,000 as an 11th round pick). He is a soon-to-be 28-year-old middle reliever still waiting for his first big baseball payday. He’s a very good middle reliever, but still a middle reliever with no real shot at save chances in the near future, and that typically doesn’t pay all that well. For Green, a four-year deal at $14.75M would lock in a life-changing payday and give him security in a role that generally isn’t very secure. For the Yankees, they’d buy out his four remaining team control years at $3.6875M annually, which is a drop in the bucket and wouldn’t stop them from doing anything else if it goes wrong. The real prize is those two club option years. Good relievers are getting $9M per year and more in free agency. Two option years at $6M or so like Leclerc would be a real steal down the line. Even though the Leclerc deal provides a good framework for a Green extension, my hunch is the Yankees will go year-to-year with Green because, frankly, it’s not worth the risk. His arbitration raises won’t be huge and the Yankees would retain the ability to non-tender him and walk away with no strings attached should things go wrong. Harsh, but that’s the business.

7. Royals catcher Salvador Perez needed Tommy John surgery last week and will miss the season. It’s a bummer for him and Royals fans but ultimately inconsequential for a Royals team that won’t contend. I guess the silver lining is it saves a year’s worth of wear-and-tear on Perez’s legs — his 6,434.2 innings caught since 2013 are second most in baseball behind Yadier Molina (6,558.1) — during a season in which Kansas City isn’t expected to do much. Anyway, I bring this up because wow does the American League catching picture stink. As bad as Gary Sanchez was last season, he is easily the best catcher in the league now that Perez is out. Here are the top five AL catchers based on ZiPS projected 2019 WAR:

  1. Gary Sanchez, Yankees: +3.1 WAR
    (Salvador Perez, Royals: +3.1 WAR)
  2. Willians Astudillo, Twins: +2.4 WAR
  3. Danny Jansen, Blue Jays: +2.0 WAR
  4. Robinson Chirinos, Astros: +1.6 WAR
  5. Mike Zunino, Rays: +1.5 WAR

Astudillo is a utility guy more than a catcher — he appeared behind the plate 55 times in 108 games between Triple-A and MLB last year — and he wasn’t even a lock to make the Opening Day roster prior to Miguel Sano’s recent injury. The Twins are going with Jason Castro (projected +1.3 WAR) and Mitch Garver (projected +1.1 WAR) behind the plate. Point is, the current AL catching crop is pretty terrible and that is especially true with Perez set to miss the entire season. Sanchez doesn’t need to rebound all the way back to his 2016-17 level for the Yankees to have a clear advantage behind the plate in pretty much every game they play this season. If he does go back to 2016-17 Sanchez, forget it, he’ll be the best catcher in the league and it won’t even be close. That would’ve been the case even with a healthy Perez though. I’m not really sure where I’m going with this. I guess I just wanted to point out how awful the catching situation is in the American League right now. There seem to be a lot of Yankees fans out there who take having a catcher as talented as Sanchez for granted. Go look at what the rest of the league is working with then get back to me.

8. The Yankees had a very active offseason, pretty clearly the most active among American League contenders, and you know what’s gone mostly overlooked? They didn’t lose much from last year’s team. The only significant loss is David Robertson. Sonny Gray threw 130.1 innings that weren’t all that good, and Neil Walker, despite being a total pro and providing some big hits, was largely ineffective as a part-timer. Didi Gregorius will miss half the season or so and that’s a loss, though he’s expected back at some point. Robertson is the only player who made an impact for the 2018 Yankees that won’t be with the 2019 Yankees, and he’s been adequately replaced (maybe even improved upon) by Adam Ottavino. Sometimes it can be so easy to get caught up in the new additions that you lose sight of the players who left. The Dodgers, for example, added A.J. Pollock, which is a nice pickup. They also lost Yasmani Grandal to free agency and traded away Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, and Matt Kemp (and Kyle Farmer) in a deal that netted them zero MLB pieces. That all seems like a net negative for a team that won 92 games last year and had to play a Game 163 tiebreaker to win the NL West title. The Yankees lost Robertson, Gray, and Walker and replaced them with Ottavino, James Paxton, DJ LeMahieu, and full seasons of J.A. Happ and Zack Britton. That’s a clear upgrade. The Yankees started with a very good core, lost only one major contributor, then added a bunch. Sounds good to me.

Yankees sign Aaron Judge, 20 other pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts for 2019

by

(Presswire)

Opening Day is less than three weeks away and the Yankees recently wrapped up their final little bit of offseason business. The Yankees have signed their 21 pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year deals for 2019, reports the Associated Press. That’s everyone. The entire 40-man roster is under contract.

As a reminder, players with less than three years of service time do not have arbitration rights. The team can pay them pretty much whatever they want, though they usually negotiate with the player and agree to a salary to maintain a good relationship. The Yankees agreed to deals with everyone this year and did not unilaterally renew anyone, which they did with Dellin Betances back in the day.

Here, via the Associated Press, are the salary details. Because I like you, I’ve gone through the trouble of including each player’s year-to-year raise in parenthesis, assuming last year’s salary information is available. The Major League minimum rose from $545,000 last season to $555,000 this season.

Service Time (Years.Days) MLB Salary MiLB Salary
Gary Sanchez 2.086 $669,800 ($49,400) $310,200
Aaron Judge 2.051 $684,300 ($62,000) $311,150
Chad Green 2.050 $598,650 ($27,850) $285,400
Jordan Montgomery 1.153 $596,600 ($16,150) $290,225
Jonathan Holder 1.144 $580,300 $262,947
Luis Cessa 1.131 $578,975 ($10,050) $210,768
Ben Heller 1.096 $555,000 ($7,525) $273,738
Clint Frazier 1.057 $563,300 ($4,100) $222,711
Miguel Andujar 1.020 $617,600 ($71,800) $269,216
Domingo German 1.017 $577,500 ($29,275) $190,150
Tyler Wade 1.007 $572,000 ($20,700) $155,692
Luke Voit 0.169 $573,200 ($27,600) $145,673
Gleyber Torres 0.162 $605,200 ($60,200) $240,210
Kyle Higashioka 0.124 $562,900 $160,207
Jonathan Loaisiga 0.047 $560,550 ($15,550) $92,766
Stephen Tarpley 0.030 $557,250 $90,400
Chance Adams 0.025 $556,725 $90,400
Domingo Acevedo 0.001 $555,000 $90,400
Albert Abreu 0.000 $555,000 $90,400
Thairo Estrada 0.000 $555,000 ($10,000) $90,400
Joe Harvey 0.000 $555,000 $45,300

Unless the two sides agree to a long-term contract, all pre-arb players sign non-guaranteed one-year split contracts that pay them one salary in the big leagues and another in the minors. Non-guaranteed means the team can release the player in Spring Training and pay him only a fraction of his contract. I don’t expect that to happen with anyone though. I’m just saying.

Most teams, including the Yankees, have a sliding salary scale based on service time for pre-arb players, with escalators for All-Star Games and awards voting, things like that. Minor league salary is determined by big league service time and tenure on the 40-man roster more than anything. This is Harvey’s first year on the 40-man. It’s Abreu’s and Estrada’s second and their minor league salaries are almost exactly double Harvey’s. The math is easy enough.

It goes without saying many pre-arb players are grossly underpaid. Judge at less than $700,000 is one of the best bangs for the buck in baseball. Players make nothing early in their careers, and it used to be that teams made it up on the back end during free agency. That isn’t really the case anymore. The MLBPA should push for increased pay for players with 0-6 years of service time. I’m not sure increased spending on free agency is realistic in the analytics era.

The Yankees have already signed Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks long-term this spring, and reports indicate they’re talking extensions with others as well. Impending free agents Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius are presumably the top priorities. Judge and Sanchez are in their final dirt cheap pre-arb season, so I’d assume the Yankees will talk to them about an extension at some point. They might enjoy the huge six-figure production in 2019 first.

What if there was a Division Series MVP?

by

Two-time ALDS MVP Bernie Williams (Getty Images)

You’ve likely come to this fine website for astute baseball analysis, but allow me a modicum of whimsy.

I recently found out that in Alex Rodriguez’s original 10-year deal with the Rangers, there was a standard awards clause, giving out bonuses if he achieved various results. This awards clause was curious, however, as it included a bonus for Division Series MVP.

There is no Division Series MVP. There has never been a Division Series MVP. There is no good reason for a Division Series MVP … but what if MLB gave it out anyway?

Would A-Rod have won one or two ALDS MVPs with the Yankees? Almost assuredly. Therefore, I went back through all of the Yankees’ ALDS victories and determined the rightful winner of this non-existent award. First up, 1996.

1996 ALDS MVP: Bernie Williams

The King of the Division Series, Bernie Williams caught fire in the 1996 ALDS. He posted the highest WPA of any non-reliever and went 7-for-15 with three home runs. When you add further context, it simply gets better.

Bernie singled and scored the game-tying run in the eighth inning of Game 2 as the Yankees trailed the series. He homered in the first inning of Game 3 before tying it late with a sacrifice fly. Finally, he tied and capped the clincher with his final homer of the series. Enough said!

1998 ALDS MVP: Shane Spencer

Shane Spencer should not get this award. He was going to be a replacement player in 1995 and, in more relevant arguments, only played two games in this series.

But he hit two dingers!

The Yankees gave up just one run over three games with Davids Wells and Cone alongside Andy Pettitte dominating. However, I’m not going to give this to three people at once. I’m not going to split this award either. This has to go to one player and Spencer is it.

Spencer homered to put the Yanks ahead in Game 2 before singling and scoring two innings later. In Game 3, his three-run homer in the sixth inning put the game, and thus the series, out of reach. Normally, this isn’t enough for a series MVP, but it’s enough here.

1999 ALDS MVP: Royce Clayton

Royce Clayton didn’t play for the Yankees. What? I’ll explain.

This is the type of series why this award does not exist. The Yankees won the series in a rout with a 14-1 lead in aggregate and only one semi-interesting game in the middle.

I just couldn’t bring myself to award any particular Yankee. Derek Jeter went 5-for-11 with a double, triple and two walks. Mariano Rivera had two saves and three innings pitched. Bernie had six RBI and went 4-for-11 after pouring it on late in a blowout Game 1.

So I’m giving it to Clayton, the Rangers’ shortstop. He went 0-for-10 in the series, distinguishing himself among the Rangers’ hitters, who only mustered 14 hits and a .152/.228/.207 collective batting line. Yuck.

2000 ALDS MVP: Mariano Rivera

You could give Rivera about four of these awards (1996, 1998-2000, 2003). He has to get at least one, in my award-giving opinion, and this was his most impactful series.

Rivera saved all three wins in the 2000 ALDS — which went the distance — and threw five important innings along the way. He gave up just two hits, walked no one and struck out two Athletics.

Though all three of his saves came in multi-run victories, Rivera entered Games 2, 3 and 5 with the tying run at the plate and deftly navigated each situation. Game 5 was essentially a six-run first inning followed by scratching and clawing to get to Rivera. Let’s call this one a unanimous selection.

2001 ALDS MVP: Derek Jeter

Jorge Posada has been overlooked for his entire career. Perhaps not as much as Williams recently as Posada made the “Core Four” but based on his Hall of Fame vote totals and by playing next to Rivera and Jeter, he didn’t get the credit he deserved.

And by the numbers, he should be the 2001 ALDS MVP. He went 8-for-18, hit the homer for the lone run of the pivotal Game 3 to turnaround the series. He compiled a 1.167 OPS.

But the Flip Play happened.

You can’t ignore the play and Jeter would have won easily on that narrative if they’d given out the award back then. Doesn’t hurt that he matched Posada with an 8-for-18 series.

Sorry, Jorge. I tried.

2003 ALDS MVP: Bernie Williams

Going just on raw numbers, Jeter would win again. He went 6-for-14 with four walks, a homer and a 1.198 OPS. However, the homer was meaningless and he already stole the award from Posada.

Outside of a loss in Game 1, this was reminiscent of the 1998 and 99 ALDS with three good starts in a row, but no one of the starters can get the award. Rivera could once again win this, but he’s not going to be the first two-time award winner here.

Therefore, we’re going with Williams, who was at the center of the action in the three wins. He hit a sac fly to put the Yankees up in Game 2 early, scored the go-ahead run and knocked in an insurance run in Game 3 and put the team up to start the knockout rally in Game 4.

2004 ALDS MVP: Alex Rodriguez

The whole point of this exercise was to get the obscenely wealthy Rodriguez his extra $100,000 or so and he gets it right off the bat.

A-Rod essentially wins it for Game 2 alone, as the Yankees knotted up the series in dramatic fashion. He homered in the fifth to put NYY up one before extending the lead with a single in the seventh. After a rare Mariano Rivera meltdown, the game went to extras and the Yankees trailed in the 12th. Don’t worry, Joe Nathan came on for the save and Rodriguez hit a game-tying, ground-rule double and set up the winning run two batters later.

After a quiet Game 3, he went 2-for-4 with two walks in Game 4 and scored the series-clinching run in the 11th inning by doubling off Kyle Lohse, stealing third base and scoring on a wild pitch.

2009 ALDS MVP: Alex Rodriguez

While A-Rod already got his bonus for the 2004 series, the 2009 ALDS was his piece de resistance. It was an undisputed masterpiece. He had two RBI singles in Game 1 to pad the Yankees’ lead en route to 7-2 win. He hit a tying homer in Game 3 to lead another comeback win.

But this is all you really need to know.

Other players had good series then, but no one neared Rodriguez’s peak in this one. This was the best all-time ALDS for a position player.

2010 ALDS MVP: Curtis Granderson

In a three-game series, the MVP comes down to one game, if not one moment. There isn’t enough time for a starting pitcher to go twice, so whoever makes the play or comes through with the key hit would earn it. This is precisely the reason why there’s no ALDS MVP in reality, 2009 A-Rod being a supernova exception.

With two men on and two outs and the Yankees down 3-2 on the road, Curtis Granderson came to the plate against Francisco Liriano, who was 100 pitches into his start. This was a guy coming off a career year facing Granderson, who could barely make contact against lefties.

But Granderson smacked a ball to right-center that carried. And carried. In most parks, it would have left, but it went for a triple to put the Yankees in front. Mark Teixeira hit the game-winning homer an inning later, but Granderson’s shot was the turning point where it came apart for Minnesota.

Tex has a cogent argument for MVP, but I’m handing it to Grandy after he put up better overall numbers, going 5-for-11 with a double, the triple, three RBI and a walk in a precursor to his near-MVP season.

2012 ALDS MVP: CC Sabathia

Raul Ibanez stole the headlines in this series with his two Game 3 homers and his go-ahead single in Game 5. Normally, just those moments would be enough to win the short series MVP.

But CC Sabathia won two games nearly by himself and shut down the Orioles’ hopes of an upset, even with Ibanez’s advantage in WPA (0.90 to 0.84). CC threw 8 2/3rds in Game 1 of a closely-contested matchup and went the distance in Game 5.

Game 5 was likely the last peak CC Sabathia game. He’s had some big playoff moments since, but he hasn’t been the ace or workhorse in the regular season or playoffs after that game. He threw 121 pitches, allowed just six baserunners and held Baltimore to one run, striking out nine. He capped it off by throwing out a runner at first and clinching the series. Well done, big man!

2017 ALDS MVP: Didi Gregorius

There wasn’t a clear statistical victor in this one. Sabathia had a solid Game 5 and underrated Game 2, but he didn’t get the win in either start and wasn’t dominant. Nearly every hitter and reliever had a big moment, but no one stood out. Aroldis Chapman would have been an OK choice if one player didn’t steal the show in Game 5.

And it was Didi Gregorius who stole said show in the winner-take-all finale. His two home runs off Corey Kluber were enough to give the Yankees the series. I still get goosebumps watching this.

—

If there was an ALDS MVP, history looks more favorably upon A-Rod, who was often destroyed for his playoff woes. Rivera, Williams and Jeter get their just due for postseason excellence that wrapped into two decades. Meanwhile, one or two hits get Spencer and Gregorius immortality while the lack of a hit dooms Clayton into shame.

P.S. Sorry again to Posada.

Aaron Judge and trying to find room for improvement [2019 Season Preview]

by

Kid, we all go to see Aaron Judge. (Presswire)

It’s fun to look back at where the Yankees and Aaron Judge were two years ago. The Yankees were, in their own words, a team in “transition,” which was their code word for rebuilding. It wasn’t a full blown teardown, but taking a step back and integrating young players into the roster is the essence of rebuilding. That’s what the Yankees were doing at the time. Introducing young players with a willingness to live through the growing pains.

Aaron Judge was not at the centerpiece of the transition — I’d say it was Luis Severino and Gary Sanchez in March 2017 — which was understandable following his .179/.263/.345 (62 wRC+) batting line with a 44.2% strikeout rate during his big league debut in late 2016. Judge had to compete for an Opening Day roster spot with Aaron Hicks, who himself had not yet established himself as a useful big leaguer.

Seven months later, Judge was the unanimous Rookie of the Year and the MVP runner-up following a truly historic rookie season. Going into last Spring Training, the question was: Can he do it again? It’s difficult to expect a player to do that again, but Judge came awfully close. His .278/.392/.528 (149 wRC+) batting line last year is both excellent and deceptively low because of his post-wrist injury skid.

On the day he suffered his wrist injury, Judge was hitting .285/.396/.548 (156 wRC+) and was one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. Here are his offensive ranks among the 214 players with at least 400 plate appearances on the day he broke his wrist:

  • AVG: .285 (23rd)
  • OBP: .398 (6th)
  • SLG: .548 (8th)
  • wRC+: 156 (4th)
  • HR: 26 (5th)

Judge was again one of the game’s elite hitters before that errant Jake Junis fastball broke his wrist on July 26th. When he returned, he was obviously still compromised, as his .220/.333/.341 (87 wRC+) September batting line shows. Fortunately, Judge regained his strength and clocked some dingers in the postseason. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough for the Yankees to advance beyond the ALDS.

This spring Judge reported to camp as an established superstar. There are no “will he make the roster?” or “can he do it again?” questions. Judge has done it two years in a row now, he’s shown he’s much better pure hitter than his size and brute strength would lead you to believe, and he’s shown he can make adjustments. Add in strong right field defense and good baserunning, and you have a complete all-around player.

Also, Judge came to camp healthy this season. The wrist is good. He had shoulder surgery last offseason, remember, and the Yankees eased him into Grapefruit League games the same way they eased Sanchez into Grapefruit League games this spring. “Going into the season trying to stay healthy, (that) was a grind. But this year, I got a chance to work on things with my swing and my approach. That’s when it gets fun,” Judge said to James Wagner last month.

Even with a recent MVP like Giancarlo Stanton on roster, plus two Rookie of the Year candidates like Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres and prized offseason pickups like, uh, Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu, Judge remains at the center of the Yankees universe. He’s their best hitter and best player, and one of the best hitters and best players in the sport. His 2017 season was no fluke. Now let’s preview his 2019 season.

How can he get better?

“See, that’s kind of the thing that drives me, to be honest. Nobody really knows. I don’t even know,” said Judge to Coley Harvey when asked how good he can be. “People can speculate and say, ‘He’s like this guy, he’s like that guy.’ But that unknown is kind of what drives me. Like, how good can you be? How good could somebody be? Just having that constant motivation of the unknown is kind of what pushes me.”

As good as he is — and he is great — there is one obvious aspect of Judge’s game that can improve:. His strikeout rate. He struck out in 30.5% of his plate appearances (30.6% before the wrist injury) last year, the seventh highest rate in baseball, after striking out in 30.7% of his plate appearances as a rookie. We have nearly 1,200 big league plate appearances worth of evidence the last two years telling us Judge is a true talent 30% strikeout rate hitter.

Obviously the strikeouts have not prevented Judge from being an elite hitter. That’s because, when he does make contact, it is very loud contact. His career 54.9% hard contact rate and 94.8 mph average exit velocity put him in the 99th percentile in MLB. (The league averages are 34.1% and 87.4 mph, respectively.) His .368 BABIP the last two seasons is no fluke. Hit the ball as hard as Judge and you’re going to put up big numbers, strikeouts be damned.

But still, Judge cutting down on his strikeouts would be welcome, because more contact equals much more damage. As Reggie Jackson pointed out and Derek wrote last week, Judge is working on a no-stride two-strike approach this spring an effort to cut down on his strikeouts. It’s only Grapefruit League play, I know, but this home run was incredible. Judge hit the ball out to dead center with that no-stride swing (though not in a two-strike count).

If nothing else, that home run is a reminder Judge is so darn strong that he can cut down on his stride and still hit the ball out of the park. I’m not going to pretend Judge will be able to cut his strikeout rate down to, say, 15% or 18%. That’s unrealistic. He’s very tall and his strike zone is enormous, so strikeouts are going to come with the territory. That’s just the way it is.

My hope is, thanks to the no-stride approach or general experience or both, Judge can cut his strikeout rate down to 25% or so. I know a five percentage point drop doesn’t sound like much, but we’re talking 30 or so extra balls in play during the course of the 162-game season. Those 30 extra balls in play equal what, four or five more homers? Ten or eleven more hits? Maybe even more than that. It adds up.

Beyond the strikeouts, there isn’t a whole lot Judge can improve. I mean, there’s always room for improvement, but he’s already an elite hitter, he’s 20th among all players (and 12th among outfielders) with +23 Defensive Runs Saved the last two years, and he rates as an above-average baserunner as well. He’s only barely above-average on the bases (+1.4 BsR and +0.9 BRR), so I guess that’s something he can improve.

With Judge, cutting down on the strikeouts is the obvious top priority. Getting down into the 25% strikeout rate range could take him from elite hitter to generational hitter. The defense and baserunning are good as well. It’s silly to think there are things Judge can’t improve though. It’s just that those things are less obvious because he’s already so close to a total package. Fewer strikeouts, better baserunning, maybe more overall consistency. Things like that.

“I’ll still be trying to improve until I’m 40 years old and I’m still talking to you, you know?” Judge said to Harvey. “I’m still learning a lot of things about myself, things about my swing, things about my approach, things that will work, things that don’t. I still have a long way to go.”

What about an extension?

The Yankees started locking up their core players in recent weeks. Severino received a four-year extension and Hicks received a seven-year extension. I imagine impending free agents Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius are next on the extension priority list. I have to think Judge is not too far behind Didi and Dellin, even though he is still four years away from free agency and will make six figures in 2019.

There are few contract comparables for Judge at his service time level. Mike Trout’s six-year, $144M extension seems more appropriate than Matt Carpenter’s six-year, $52M extension, you know? Derek looked at a possible Judge extension two weeks ago and came up with seven years and $170M. To be honest, that seems high to me. I was thinking six years and $100M or so, with this structure:

  • 2019: $1M plus $2M signing bonus (pre-arbitration year)
  • 2020: $10M (arbitration year)
  • 2021: $15M (arbitration year)
  • 2022: $20M (arbitration year)
  • 2023: $25M (free agent year)
  • 2024: $25M (free agent year)
  • 2025: $30M club option with $2M buyout (free agent year)

That takes Judge through his age 32 season with an option for his age 33 season. The Yankees signed Hicks through his age 35 season, so maybe they’re willing to go that long with Judge, but Hicks is two years older than Judge and he was only a year away from free agency when he signed his deal. Judge doesn’t have the same leverage as Hicks. The Yankees could simply go year-to-year with Judge through his age 30 season. There’s less urgency on their part.

Maybe the six-year, $100M idea is dumb. Probably is. The larger point here is, now that the Yankees are in the business of locking up core players long-term, you can be sure Judge is among their top priorities. The thing is, signing him now raises his luxury tax number considerably. He’s going to make $700,000 or so this year as a pre-arbitration player. Give him six years and $100M and suddenly his luxury tax hit is $16.67M. That would cost the Yankees an extra $4.9M or so in luxury tax alone in 2019.

The Yankees could, however, sign Judge to an extension that begins next season without changing his 2019 luxury tax number. They did not do that with Hicks. They ate the extra luxury tax hit this year, though that was only an extra $4M. In Judge’s case, we’re talking an extra $15M or (likely) more against luxury tax payroll. If the two sides agree to an extension before Opening Day, I would bet the farm on it kicking in next year, not this year.

At this point, a Judge extension feels inevitable. The only question is whether they get it done before Opening Day or wait until next offseason, when the price is likely to increase. The sooner you sign the player, the larger the discount. That’s how these deals work. Either way, the Yankees will enjoy Judge’s last dirt cheap pre-arbitration year. Either they wait on the extension, or they sign him to an extension that begins next year.

What about the captaincy?

Fun fact: Derek Jeter was not named captain until 2003. That was four World Series championships, six full seasons, and one ten-year contract into his career. I get why the captain thing is mentioned with Judge. He’s a great player and he represents the Yankees well on and off the field, plus he’s already seen as a leader in the clubhouse, but I think we are a very long way from the Yankees naming a new captain. This is a topic for another time. Not 2019.

“He’s handled it well,” CC Sabathia said to Harvey. “Just the whole thing — the scope of being in New York, being a younger guy, being recognizable, easy access for everything. And he does a good job of being prepared to play every day. That’s hard to do in New York. (He’s) a prime candidate to be the next captain.”

* * *

At this point two years ago Judge was an extremely strikeout prone prospect who didn’t look all that ready to handle Major League pitching. Now, going into 2019, he is on the short list of the best players in baseball, and he’s the best player the Yankees have had since peak Robinson Cano. Maybe even since peak Alex Rodriguez. A mammoth extension is coming at some point, maybe even the captaincy as well.

For now, the goal for Judge this season is stay healthy, cut down on the strikeouts, and gain overall consistency with his game. Judge will tell you the goal is winning the World Series, and it is, but he is only one man. Winning the World Series is a team accomplishment and Judge has more than pulled his weight the last two seasons. He’s established himself as a true franchise player and he’s on the path to becoming an all-time great Yankee.

“His competition, for me, is in the monuments. His competition, for me, is the history of the Yankees,” Reggie Jackson said to Harvey. “If you look at some of the things he has done, he compares to (Babe) Ruth and (Lou) Gehrig. He’s put up crazy numbers.”