River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Tyler Wade

Yankeemetrics: Bronx is burning (April 12-14)

by

(Getty)

April 12: No lead is safe anymore
The Yankees returned to the Bronx on a rainy Friday night and picked up right where they left off when they departed Texas — blowing a lead and losing another game.

The loss dropped them to 5.5 games behind in the AL East, putting them in an unprecedented hole in the division race. It was the first time they trailed by more than five games in the standings this early into the season (13th game) since 1984, when the Tigers won 16 of their first 17 games and ran away with the AL East crown.

It was a collective dumpster-fire performance by the pitching staff. J.A. Happ was awful from the start (six runs allowed on nine hits) and continued his trend of inefficient, ineffective pitching this season (88 pitches, 12 outs). For the third time in three starts, he was unable to get more than one out in the fifth inning before getting pulled.

Before Happ, the last two Yankee pitchers to last no more than 4 1/3 innings in each of their first three starts of the season were Phil Hughes (2011) and Chien-Ming Wang (2009) … and both of those guys went on the DL after their third start.

After the Yankees pulled within a run in the bottom of the sixth, Chad Green came into the game in the next frame and sealed the loss by allowing back-to-back homers. It was the first time as a reliever he gave up multiple homers in a game. He has pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed three homers. In 2017, he allowed four homers in 69 innings pitched.

(Getty)

April 13: CC The Great
The Yankees briefly snapped out of their slump on Saturday. They blanked the White Sox 4-0 thanks to a vintage performance from CC Sabathia and a dose of smallball offense.

Sabathia and three relievers combined to give up just one hit and no walks, the fourth game in Yankee Stadium history (old or new) that the Yankees pitchers didn’t walk a batter and allowed no more than one hit. The other three times? David Cone’s perfecto (July 19, 1999), David Wells’ perfecto (May 17, 1998) and Don Larsen’s perfecto (Oct. 8, 1956).

Sabathia was spectacular in his 19th and final season debut, delivering a performance — though abbreviated — that statistically might rank among the best of his big-league career. He retired 15 of the 16 batters faced, allowing only a third-inning single. It was the first game in Sabathia’s career that he gave up one or fewer baserunners (while pitching more than an inning). The big lefty also re-wrote the franchise record books:

The Yankees broke a scoreless tie in the seventh with a couple manufactured runs:

  • bases-loaded RBI single by Luke Voit (who is a cool 7-for-18 and 16 RBI with the bags full in his career)
  • bases-loaded sac fly by Kyle Higashioka (the first sac fly of his MLB career!)
  • perfect safety squeeze bunt by Tyler Wade (the first successful sac bunt of his MLB career!)

Aaron Judge then added another run in the eighth with a solo shot that just cleared the right-field porch. It had a Statcast-projected distance of 335 feet, the shortest home run of his career.

(New York Post)

Tanaka slammed, bats crumble
Any sliver of optimism coming from Saturday’s win was quickly erased in Sunday’s 5-2 loss. They’ve now dropped each of their first three series at Yankee Stadium; the last time that happened was 1982 (a forgettable season that included three managers and 83 losses). Even worse the three series losses have come against the Tigers, White Sox and Orioles — teams that averaged 104 losses last year and are projected to have three of the five worst records in MLB this season.

The game followed a very familiar — and depressing — script, with the Yankees taking an early lead, blowing it and the offense unable to mount a comeback.

The facts: The Yankees have held a lead in 14 of 15 games and are 6-8 in those games; they’ve scored first in 12 of 15 games and are 5-7 in those games.

  • 8 blown-lead losses are tied with the Royals for the most in MLB.
  • Last year they didn’t suffer their 8th blown-lead loss until June 24.
  • Last year they won 80% of their games in which they had a lead (second-best record in MLB), and the MLB-wide win percentage is 70%.
  • 7 losses when scoring first are the most in MLB this season.
  • Last year they didn’t get their 7th scoring-first loss until July 15
  • Last year they won 81% of their games when scoring first (second-best record in MLB) and the MLB-wide win percentage is 67%

Masahiro Tanaka cruised through the first three frames, striking out five of the first seven batters he faced. But he unraveled in the fourth, loading the bases with one out, before Tim Anderson pummeled a hanging splitter for a game-changing grand slam. It was the fourth career grand slam allowed by Tanaka, and all four have come since 2017. The only other pitcher to give up four slams in that span is J.A. Happ.

As nasty as Tanaka’s splitter can be when he locates it down in the zone or in the dirt, it’s a meatball pitch when he can’t command it.

(Sunday vs White Sox)

And so far this year, he’s struggled to keep the pitch out of the hitter’s attack zone more than in any previous season. Here’s his percentage of splitters thrown in the heart of the zone:

2019 – 30%
2018 – 21%
2017 – 21%
2016 – 16%
2015 – 14%
2014 – 15%

Tanaka was terrible but the offense was just as awful, scoring only two runs on four hits; from the fourth through ninth innings, just two Yankees reached base and neither of those guys made it to second base.

Miguel Andujar placed on 10-day injured list with shoulder injury

by

(Presswire)

9:33pm ET: Andujar has a “small” tear in his labrum, Aaron Boone said following tonight’s game. The Yankees and Andujar will take the conservative approach and try to rehab the injury, but season-ending surgery is a possibility. Either way, he’s going to miss several weeks. Sigh.

6:07pm ET: Nine! Nine injured Yankees, ah ah ah. The Yankees have placed Miguel Andujar on the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder strain, the team announced. Tyler Wade has been recalled to fill the roster spot. The Yankees lost Giancarlo Stanton to a biceps injury earlier today.

The Yankees say Andujar will undergo tests and, considering Wade was in Scranton for the Triple-A team media day earlier today, this was a last minute decision. Jack Curry says Andujar suffered the injury diving back into third base yesterday. I assume it happened on this play:

While with the Yankees both Mason Williams and Dustin Ackley suffered shoulder injuries diving back into bases that required season-ending surgery. That is worrisome, to be sure, but we don’t have any real information about the Andujar injury. It’s serious enough to require an injury list stint and tests. That’s all we know.

The Yankees have a quality replacement third baseman in DJ LeMahieu, which means Wade will get playing time whenever Troy Tulowitzki rests. That will be fairly often. Over the weekend Aaron Boone said they don’t want to play Tulowitzki three straight days just yet. The Yankees have nine guys on the injured list and somehow Tulowitzki and Greg Bird are not among them. Go figure.

Right now the Yankees are without their ace (Luis Severino), starting shortstop (Didi Gregorius), starting third baseman (Miguel Andujar), starting center fielder (Aaron Hicks), starting designated hitter (Giancarlo Stanton), ace setup man (Dellin Betances), and various depth players (Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Heller, Jordan Montgomery). The depth is being tested early. That’s for sure.

Spring training results that we shouldn’t read into

by

Cessa. (Presswire)

Earlier this week, I touched on a few players’ spring training performances that have me optimistic. Maybe taking meaning from their camp statistics will make me look dumb over the next few months. Probably, in fact. Today, let’s actually follow conventional wisdom: Grapefruit League numbers are meaningless. Our expectations of the following players shouldn’t be altered because of what they’ve done down in Florida.

Bursting Luis Cessa’s bubble

When Luis Severino and CC Sabathia went down, it seemed inevitable that Luis Cessa would nab a spot in the rotation. He was nothing short of fantastic this spring. Yet, after he posted a microscopic 0.98 ERA in a hair more than 18 innings, the righty was relegated to the bullpen. He probably will get a handful of starts this season anyway, but the fact that his performance didn’t earn him a chance every fifth day speaks volumes.

It’s nice that he pitched well, but that doesn’t erase his lifetime 4.71 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He’s seen his fair share of major league time over the last few seasons, and now that he’ll be 27 next month, it doesn’t look like he has any upside. Been there, done that. It’s time for Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga prove their worth. Or, go to Gio Gonzalez as an experienced veteran.

J.A. Happ will be fine

The Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to solidify the rotation, and just over 11 poor Grapefruit League frames shouldn’t cause much concern. The southpaw was prone to the long ball in camp and surrendered six dingers, which ballooned his ERA to 7.94. His regular season ERA will probably be half that. ZiPS, PECOTA, and Steamer all have him right around 4.00.

There are legitimate reasons to worry about Happ, though. Pitchers in their mid-to-late thirties decline, and the 36 year-old Happ is no exception. He’s going to get worse while under contract with the Yankees barring a Sabathia-like resurgence. That being said, cherry picking his spring performance does not make him toast.

Tyler Wade still has something to prove

After he posted an .845 OPS this spring, Wade’s frustration about not making the team is understandable. He had a spot on the 25-man roster until the Yankees made a trade in the 11th hour for Mike Tauchman. Clearly, the Yankees are looking for a bench that isn’t full of light hitters. Pairing Wade with Austin Romine makes for a pretty weak bench, and even though Tauchman hasn’t hit much in the big leagues yet, he’s the type of player the Yankees covet.

Wade has a disappointing major league track record. He’s posted a 23 wRC+ in 133 big league plate appearances, which doesn’t cut it no matter how much versatility he offers. No amount of production in spring training can erase that. With DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having the ability to cover multiple infield positions and Tauchman able to span all three outfield spots, Wade became the odd man out despite his best effort.

Think twice about falling for Brett Gardner again

A .394/.450/.697 triple-lash will open anyone’s eyes in spring training. That was what Gardner did, but we’ve seen this before. He’s a notorious hot starter who wears down in the second half. He has a career 112/89 wRC+ split between the two halves of the season.

I’d undoubtedly sign up for a torrid start again this year, especially with the array of injuries the team is dealing with. But, it wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t do it again. At some point, his second half swoons are going to carry over into the start following season, and 2019 could be that year. He authored a putrid 66 wRC+ to close last season and lost his job to Andrew McCutchen, to boot. Clint Frazer is gunning for his role this year. It would be fun to see Gardner have one last gasp, but I’m not changing my opinion based on what he did over the last month. I was basically ready to move on in the offseason. Now, the Yankees have no choice but to start him.

Various others

The players mentioned above are the ones I found most compelling to discuss. There are other standouts and poor performers whose results mean next to nothing, but it’s not worth a couple of paragraphs. No, I’m not worried about Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, or Adam Ottavino. I don’t think Nestor Cortes, David Hale, or Gio Urshela are hidden gems. I think that’s a little too obvious.

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

by

German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

The short but necessary bench [2019 Season Preview]

by

Romine. (Presswire)

In today’s day and age, the bench on an American League team just isn’t very important. What traditionally hindered bench usefulness in the junior circuit was the advent of the designated hitter, but the more recent emphasis on the bullpen has become a factor too. Over the last decade or so, we’ve gone from teams typically fielding eleven pitchers to now including up to a baker’s dozen. It’s pretty clear the Yankees will carry thirteen pitchers, meaning that there are only three bench jobs to go around. One obviously needs to go to a reserve catcher, while the other two spots are a tad more flexible.

The venerable backup catcher

It seems like people either love or loathe Austin Romine. Many of those in the former category prefer him to Gary Sanchez because they’re irrational. Those who don’t like Romine have been hoping for a different backup for years, even though he’s perfectly fine in his role. Sure, it would be nice to have a better hitter behind Sanchez, but that would be a luxury, not a necessity.

Romine had his best offensive season last year, setting career highs across the board. His first half was particularly strong (122 wRC+), but he reverted back to his usual self to finish the year. It would be dandy if he’s anything remotely near his first half performance this year. That said, his historical performance would also be tolerable. It only becomes untenable if Sanchez needs to miss significant time.

The 30 year-old backstop shines in areas that casual observers can’t easily glean. Advanced metrics peg him as an above average defender, which also includes solid pitch framing. It seems like he has a good rapport with the coaching staff and pitchers, too. Those things are valuable even if they’re not as easy to read as a batter’s triple-slash. Hence the Yankees sticking with him as a reserve the past few years.

Understandably, the projections are underwhelming. PECOTA (83 DRC+), ZiPS (77 wRC+), and Steamer (76 wRC+) all foresee a poor offensive output. But if you keep in mind that the typical catcher posted a 84 wRC+ last season, it’s really not so bad. Once you layer on Romine’s value as a receiver and his bond with the pitchers, it’s clear that he makes for a respectable backup.

The hopeful super-utility player

2019 will be Tyler Wade’s second chance to secure a roster spot in the big leagues. After making the opening day roster last season, he faltered. His -25 wRC+ last April got him demoted to Triple-A for most of the season, before returning for a July cameo and September call ups. Wade still has options, so this year isn’t necessarily a make or break season, but there’s going to be some pressure on him to show he can at least be a tolerable bat in the majors.

It’s one thing to be speedy and have a solid glove, which are Wade’s calling cards. But no matter how good anyone is with those skills, they won’t be rostered for long if they post a .161/.218/.250 batting line (those are Wade’s career marks). The challenge for Wade will be making the most of sporadic plate appearances. With guys like DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres having versatility in the infield, Wade probably won’t get too many starts. Wade has been working out in the outfield for a couple of years now, including some time in center this spring because of Aaron Hicks’s injury, but again, he’s low on the depth chart to play frequently out there.

Perhaps Wade starts once a week, but most of his time will come as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. Thanks to his versatility, Aaron Boone can be pretty aggressive with Wade in high leverage situations. He could pinch run for just about anyone and have a spot in the field in the next half inning. Or, he could substitute defensively for either Miguel Andujar or Luke Voit/Greg Bird late in games. That would allow LeMahieu to take the corner infield spot while Wade slides to second.

Wade. (Presswire)

This spring, Wade has a .907 OPS in Grapefruit League play. Not that spring training stats are meaningful or predictive, but I’d rather see that than a lackluster March performance. There’s no way he’ll hit that well in the regular season, but if he can be Romine-like (think 75 – 80 wRC+), he’d be just fine. He may not get more than 150 plate appearances all season, which is difficult for someone who’s used to playing daily in the minors. It’s a learning experience to become a solid role player, but that’s what Wade will have to prove. Fortunately for him, the team’s offense is so good that his bat won’t necessarily be needed. He just can’t be equivalent to a pitcher at the dish.

The likely to change 25th man

Injuries have clouded who will take the final bench spot. It could be Greg Bird, though we already previewed him. Maybe it’ll be Jacoby Ellsbury, but certainly not immediately. Maybe a non-roster invitee will sneak on to start the year. What we do know for sure is that it’ll be a fluid situation depending on who’s healthy. Clint Frazier, who we’ve yet to preview, will probably spend some time filling in on the bench, especially if Hicks’s back woes linger or Brett Gardner struggles.

Frazier is probably bound for Scranton once spring training ends. He’s had a rough go of it in game action this month, but that’s not surprising for someone who missed significant time last season. Some time in the minors will allow him to get back up to speed. The most important thing is that he’s free and clear of the concussion problems that plagued him last season. As he shakes the rust off, 2019 will be a chance for him to carve out a role with the Yankees.

If the 24 year-old outfielder hits anything like he did in limited time with Scranton last year (170 wRC+ in 216 plate appearances), the Yankees won’t be able to keep him down for long. There’s a balance that the club must strike when they decide promote him. Riding the pine in the majors would be wasteful. However, he can’t just usurp playing time without an opening.

Most projections have Frazier as a slightly above average big league hitter already (i.e. ZiPS and Steamer), though the one pessimistic outlier is PECOTA (89 DRC+). I’m on the optimistic side, personally. I expect Frazier to carve out some sort of hybrid bench/starter role by the season’s end.

March 21st Spring Training Notes: Sevy, Bird, Wade, Frazier, Florial, Gonzalez, Sabathia, Mazzilli

by

The Yankees got thumped pretty good by the Cardinals today. Gleyber Torres had a double and a walk, Gio Urshela had a double and a single, and Miguel Andujar had a single. The B-Team couldn’t get much going on offensively. Then again, when Ryan Lavarnway leads the starting lineup in service time, what do you expect?

Domingo German gave up five runs, including three homers, in only 3.2 innings. He’d given up only three runs in 11.1 Grapefruit League innings going into today’s game. Given all the injuries, I doubt today’s outing hurt German’s chances of making the Opening Day roster. Anyway, Stephen Tarpley continued his strong spring with a scoreless inning. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • Luis Severino (shoulder) made 50 throws at 60 feet today as scheduled and everything went well. Tomorrow is a rest day. I’m not sure what comes after that. He probably has more flat ground work ahead of him before getting back up on a mound. [Bryan Hoch]
  • Apparently that pitch did not hit Greg Bird’s elbow pad yesterday. He was swollen today and sent back to Tampa for tests. “As a hitter, I don’t want to mess with his mechanics,” Aaron Boone said. X-rays and a CT scan came back negative, so all is good, at least in theory. Bird is likely to return to the lineup this weekend. [Coley Harvey]
  • Tyler Wade is fine after leaving yesterday’s game with tightness in both hits. He was examined today and is good to go for Opening Day. Clint Frazier fouled a pitch into his calf during today’s game but he’s fine too. Sore, probably, but fine. Estevan Florial (wrist) will only be in a cast three weeks, so that’s good news. [Bryan Hoch, Coley Harvey, Joel Sherman]
  • Gio Gonzalez threw a bullpen session today (here’s video) and is tentatively scheduled to pitch in a game Saturday, though it could be on the minor league side. Larry Rothschild said he “looks pretty close,” for what it’s worth. Also, Gonzalez said he added a cutter over the winter and likes where it’s at. [Erik Boland, Coley Harvey]
  • CC Sabathia threw two innings and 26 pitches in a minor league game today and everything went well. Here’s some video. Tommy Kahnle pitched in a minor league game as well, throwing 1.2 innings and 33 pitches. James Paxton and Luis Cessa threw bullpen sessions. [Bryan Hoch, Erik Boland, Kristie Ackert]
  • Billy Burns, Matt Lipka, and Ryan Lavarnway were all reassigned to minor league camp following today’s game, the Yankees announced. There goes any slim chance Burns had at making the team as Aaron Hicks’ replacement. I count 47 players still in big league camp, which is an awful lot with Opening Day one week away.
  • And finally, Lee Mazzilli is doing well after being hit in the head by a batted ball during batting practice yesterday. The Yankees say he’s in good spirits and will remain in the hospital one more night for observation. Good news. [James Wagner]

The Yankees are back home tomorrow night against the Braves. Only four more exhibition games to go. Jonathan Loaisiga is the scheduled starter tomorrow night. The game will be televised live.

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

by

(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.