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Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

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German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

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(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

The Overqualified Sixth and Seventh Relievers [2019 Season Preview]

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Holder. (Presswire)

On paper, the Yankees have a comically deep bullpen with three or four (or five?) relievers who would qualify as the best reliever on a not insignificant number of other teams. Things don’t always play out the way they look on paper, that’s just baseball, but the Yankees have clearly assembled an enviable collection of bullpen arms going in 2019.

New York’s bullpen is so stacked that Jonathan Holder is, at best, sixth on the reliever depth chart, and Tommy Kahnle isn’t even assured an Opening Day roster spot. I think it’s highly likely he’ll make the team, especially now that Dellin Betances is hurt, but the fact it is not completely set in stone is pretty bonkers. This guy was one of the top relievers in the game two years ago.

Assuming Kahnle makes the roster, he and Holder are behind Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Chad Green in the bullpen pecking order (once Betances returns). That makes them overqualified sixth and seventh relievers. Fortunately there’s no such thing as too many good relievers. Let’s preview their 2019 seasons.

Jonathan Holder

In a bullpen loaded with big velocity, Holder is an outlier. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph last season and topped out at 95.4 mph. His max velocity was comfortably below Chapman’s (99.2 mph) and Betances’ (98.2 mph) average velocity. Holder is a kitchen sink guy who broke out last year after completely shelving his cutter and curveball, and leaning on his slider and changeup.

The end result was a 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) with an average-ish number of strikeouts (22.0%) and few walks (7.0%) or grounders (29.3%) in 66 innings. Holder almost certainly has some home run rate regression coming his way this year. Last year’s ground ball rate won’t usually produce a 0.55 HR/9 (4.2% HR/FB) rate when you play your home games in Yankee Stadium. Something has to give. Either more grounders or more homers are coming.

Based on the current bullpen layout, it sure seems like Holder will inherit Adam Warren’s old role as the super utility reliever. The jack of all trades, Swiss Army knife reliever. He’ll be asked to keep the game close when the Yankees are trailing, throw multiple innings on occasion, and fill in as a high-leverage guy when others aren’t available. That was Warren’s role and he was very, very good at it. Now Holder is the obvious heir apparent.

Holder and Warren are similar in that both have starter’s repertoires and resilient arms, allowing them to remain effective on back-to-back days and deep into the season. Holder doesn’t have a starter’s stamina — the Yankees tried him as a starter in the minors in 2015 and gave up on it after one year because his stuff backed up so much — but he won’t need it in relief. If he can go two innings at a time, maaaaybe three on occasion, that’s enough.

Another possibility: Holder as an opener. He started a game last September, though that was a traditional bullpen game and not an opener situation. Holder is opening today’s Grapefruit League game after Green opened yesterday’s game, so this is something the Yankees are considering, and Holder is apparently a candidate to open games. This is likely a better use of his skills than being the sixth option in the late innings, you know?

The Yankees clearly like Holder — they added him to the 40-man roster a year early so he could throw 8.1 low-leverage innings in September 2016 — and the way he overhauled his approach in the middle of last season shows he has the aptitude to make adjustments, which is an obvious plus. In any other year, I feel like we’d be awfully excited about Holder’s upcoming season. In this bullpen, he kinda gets lost in the shuffle.

Unfortunately for Holder, he has a minor league option remaining (two, actually) and is pretty much the team’s only reliever who can easily be sent down. I reckon he’ll experience an undeserved trip to Triple-A Scranton at some point this season in the name of roster flexibility. It certainly would not be the first time that’s happened. Such is life for a cheap, optionable reliever in the era of bullpen shuttles.

Holder is a reliever without a clearly defined role at the moment, though those things tend to sort themselves out, and having a guy like him as you sixth best reliever is a big luxury. The home run regression might be ugly — that potential trip to Scranton might not be so undeserved after all! — but Holder has the tools and the pitching know-how to be  successful big leaguer. He may be far down the depth chart now. Given the way these things usually play out, the Yankees will undoubtedly need Holder to get some important outs this season.

Tommy Kahnle

Kahnle. (Presswire)

Last season was a total mess for Kahnle. His velocity was down early, he spent a few weeks on the disabled list, and when he returned he intentionally gained weight in an effort to rediscover some velocity. When it was all said and done, Kahnle threw 23.1 big league innings with a 6.56 ERA (4.19 FIP) and 24.2 Triple-A innings with a 4.01 ERA (2.85 FIP). He walked 12.1% of all batters he faced. It was bad. Bad bad bad.

“I’m voiding last year. If I think about that I won’t be able to do anything now,” Kahnle said to Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) recently. He reported to camp in noticeably better shape — Kahnle told Adler he’s given up the two coffees and five Red Bulls he used to drink every single day, which is kinda bonkers — and based on our limited looks during televised Grapefruit League games, he appears to be throwing much more free and easy, and with more velocity.

“Really exciting. That’s the best I’ve seen him throw since I’ve been here,” Aaron Boone said to Brendan Kuty after one of Kahnle’s early spring outings. “… He didn’t have to work to generate the velocity. I thought life in the zone was really good. He executed some changeups. He threw a good slider in there last night. But the way the ball is coming out for him, I know he really feels good about it and he should. That was exciting to see.”

Two years ago Kahnle threw 62.2 innings with a 2.59 ERA (1.83 FIP) and outstanding strikeout (37.5%) and walk (6.6%) rates. He wasn’t pretty good, he was great. Maybe getting Kahnle back to that level isn’t a realistic goal. How many relievers can do that year after year? What about Holder level production though? ERA and FIP in the low-3s with a few more strikeouts. Is that unreasonable? Maybe it is given how bad he looked last year.

Clearly, velocity matters a lot to Kahnle. Hitters were noticeably more comfortable in the box and with their swings when he was 94-95 mph rather than 98-99 mph. Kahnle has been mostly 95-96 mph on the television radar gun this spring, which comes with the caveat that it is the television gun, but it is encouraging to see bigger numbers already. Pitchers usually don’t reach their max velocity until a few weeks into the regular season, once the weather warms up.

What will Kahnle’s role be this season? Geez, hard to tell right now. Even with Betances out, there are at least three guys ahead of him on the setup depth chart (Britton, Green Ottavino) and my guess is Holder would get high-leverage work ahead of Kahnle until Kahnle shows he’s back to his 2017 self (or thereabouts) and trustworthy in important situations. I think things will be touch and go with Kahnle for the first few weeks of the season. A defined role may be a ways off.

It’s worth noting Kahnle, unlike Holder, is out of minor league options. He has to pass through waivers to go to the minors and I don’t see him clearing. He’s cheap ($1.387M this year) and under control through 2021, and he is only one season removed from the last time he was very effective. In a vacuum, wouldn’t you want the Yankees to claim a guy like that? The Yankees would sooner trade him given the likelihood of losing him for nothing on waivers.

Kahnle has thrown the ball well this spring and that was a prerequisite for making the Opening Day roster. Being out of options helps his case but only goes so far. Kahnle had to perform at least a little bit, and it’s encouraging that his velocity is up a bit and that he doesn’t have to put everything he has into each pitch to get to that velocity. I don’t know what Kahnle’s role will be this year, but I do know he’s an x-factor. Getting something close to 2017 Kahnle would make the bullpen that much deeper and that much more dangerous.

Yankees sign Aaron Judge, 20 other pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts for 2019

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(Presswire)

Opening Day is less than three weeks away and the Yankees recently wrapped up their final little bit of offseason business. The Yankees have signed their 21 pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year deals for 2019, reports the Associated Press. That’s everyone. The entire 40-man roster is under contract.

As a reminder, players with less than three years of service time do not have arbitration rights. The team can pay them pretty much whatever they want, though they usually negotiate with the player and agree to a salary to maintain a good relationship. The Yankees agreed to deals with everyone this year and did not unilaterally renew anyone, which they did with Dellin Betances back in the day.

Here, via the Associated Press, are the salary details. Because I like you, I’ve gone through the trouble of including each player’s year-to-year raise in parenthesis, assuming last year’s salary information is available. The Major League minimum rose from $545,000 last season to $555,000 this season.

Service Time (Years.Days) MLB Salary MiLB Salary
Gary Sanchez 2.086 $669,800 ($49,400) $310,200
Aaron Judge 2.051 $684,300 ($62,000) $311,150
Chad Green 2.050 $598,650 ($27,850) $285,400
Jordan Montgomery 1.153 $596,600 ($16,150) $290,225
Jonathan Holder 1.144 $580,300 $262,947
Luis Cessa 1.131 $578,975 ($10,050) $210,768
Ben Heller 1.096 $555,000 ($7,525) $273,738
Clint Frazier 1.057 $563,300 ($4,100) $222,711
Miguel Andujar 1.020 $617,600 ($71,800) $269,216
Domingo German 1.017 $577,500 ($29,275) $190,150
Tyler Wade 1.007 $572,000 ($20,700) $155,692
Luke Voit 0.169 $573,200 ($27,600) $145,673
Gleyber Torres 0.162 $605,200 ($60,200) $240,210
Kyle Higashioka 0.124 $562,900 $160,207
Jonathan Loaisiga 0.047 $560,550 ($15,550) $92,766
Stephen Tarpley 0.030 $557,250 $90,400
Chance Adams 0.025 $556,725 $90,400
Domingo Acevedo 0.001 $555,000 $90,400
Albert Abreu 0.000 $555,000 $90,400
Thairo Estrada 0.000 $555,000 ($10,000) $90,400
Joe Harvey 0.000 $555,000 $45,300

Unless the two sides agree to a long-term contract, all pre-arb players sign non-guaranteed one-year split contracts that pay them one salary in the big leagues and another in the minors. Non-guaranteed means the team can release the player in Spring Training and pay him only a fraction of his contract. I don’t expect that to happen with anyone though. I’m just saying.

Most teams, including the Yankees, have a sliding salary scale based on service time for pre-arb players, with escalators for All-Star Games and awards voting, things like that. Minor league salary is determined by big league service time and tenure on the 40-man roster more than anything. This is Harvey’s first year on the 40-man. It’s Abreu’s and Estrada’s second and their minor league salaries are almost exactly double Harvey’s. The math is easy enough.

It goes without saying many pre-arb players are grossly underpaid. Judge at less than $700,000 is one of the best bangs for the buck in baseball. Players make nothing early in their careers, and it used to be that teams made it up on the back end during free agency. That isn’t really the case anymore. The MLBPA should push for increased pay for players with 0-6 years of service time. I’m not sure increased spending on free agency is realistic in the analytics era.

The Yankees have already signed Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks long-term this spring, and reports indicate they’re talking extensions with others as well. Impending free agents Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius are presumably the top priorities. Judge and Sanchez are in their final dirt cheap pre-arb season, so I’d assume the Yankees will talk to them about an extension at some point. They might enjoy the huge six-figure production in 2019 first.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Gray, Kahnle, Holder, Roman

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Hurry up and sign, Manny. I’m running out of photo options. (Getty)

Every time I say I think the Yankees are done with big offseason moves, they sign someone else. It was Adam Ottavino yesterday, DJ LeMahieu last week, and Zach Britton the week before that. I’ll have some thoughts on the Ottavino deal early next week. Until then, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees have made Machado an offer?

Manuel Machado, Manny’s father, told Hector Gomez his son has received offers from several teams, including the Yankees. “Manny has received offers from different teams. Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies. Now there’s a lot of interest from the White Sox,” said Manuel. Not that long ago it was reported the Yankees hadn’t made Machado a “concrete” offer, which is not a big deal. If there’s an offer in front of him now though, it indicates the Yankees are getting serious.

I’m passing this nugget along because it’s out there, so you might as well read it on my site, but I caution you to be extremely careful not to read too much into these comments. Machado’s father has an obvious incentive to pump up Manny’s market — it’s good for business when the Yankees and Dodgers are involved in the bidding — and get his son the best deal possible. The Dodgers haven’t been connected to Machado at all this winter. Now they’ve made an offer? Not sure about that. You’re welcome to believe what you want. This doesn’t strike me as all that reliable.

Yankees getting closer to trading Gray

According to Jack Curry and Jon Heyman, the Yankees are getting closer to trading Sonny Gray and it could happen soon. They’re talking to several teams with the Giants newly into the mix. That makes sense. Their new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new pitching coach Curt Young know Sonny from their days with the Athletics. San Francisco seems perfectly positioned to buy low on Gray, then sign him long-term if he bounces back.

I have the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at roughly $228.5M following the Ottavino deal. Cot’s has them at $220.2M. My number includes a larger estimate for benefits and also something for in-season injury/September call-ups. Anyway, point is the Yankees are dangerously close to the $226M second luxury tier, if not over it already. Now that the Ottavino deal is in place, trading Gray and finding a cheaper swingman to get the payroll in order feels inevitable. For 40-man roster purposes, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sonny moved before the Ottavino deal is made official.

Kahnle, Holder drawing interest

2018 Kahnle in picture form. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

According to Heyman, the Yankees are getting calls about righty relievers Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Holder. I’m not surprised teams are looking to buy low on Kahnle. Seeing whether he can bounce back this year is worthwhile, but no way would I make him off-limits in trade talks. He’s owed $1.3875M this year and shedding that money could be a priority. Holder had a very nice 2018 and is both dirt cheap and under team control another five years. Of course teams are asking about him.

With Britton re-signed and Ottavino agreeing to a deal, the Yankees are in better position to consider trading away a reliever. It’s a position of depth. Trading Holder or especially Kahnle when you have Britton, Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Chad Green is an easy pill to swallow. The Yankees love their big velocity bat-missers and Holder is decidedly not that. Could they cash him in as a trade chip when his value is as high as it’s ever been and maybe as high as it’ll ever get? Hmmm.

Yankees trade Locastro to D’Backs

Earlier this week the Yankees traded utility man Tim Locastro to the Diamondbacks for lefty pitching prospect Ronald Roman and cash, the team announced. Locastro had been designated for assignment last week to clear a 40-man roster spot for LeMahieu. The Yankees got him from the Dodgers for 2015 third round pick Drew Finley earlier this offseason. Locastro, like Hanser Alberto, didn’t make it to Spring Training after being acquired earlier in the winter and spending a few weeks on the 40-man roster. I’m going to start calling this The Dan Otero Club.

Anyway, Roman is a just turned 17-year-old kid the D’Backs signed as an international free agent last July. He has not yet made his professional debut. He’ll do that this year. Roman was a small bonus signing and I can’t find any information on the kid. Sorry. Roman is almost certainly a player the Yankees wanted to sign last July but didn’t because either the D’Backs beat them to him (maybe) or because they ran out of bonus pool money (probably). Either way, he’s in the organization now. In a roundabout way the Yankees turned Finley, a busted prospect, into a young lottery ticket arm.

The Mostly Effective and Inoffensive Middle Reliever [2018 Season Review]

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(Elsa/Getty)

Way back in March, just after he was named to the team’s Opening Day roster, I suggested that Jonathan Holder would remain a part of the Yankees bullpen shuttle between the Bronx and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. I was impressed by his solid half-season in pinstripes, but skeptical about his ability to be a true relief weapon due to his lack of high-end stuff and questionable efficacy against left-handed hitters; as such, I would not have been shocked if he ended up out of favor in short order. Instead, he served as an integral piece of the bullpen this year from wire-to-wire.

You can’t predict baseball, am I right?

The Inauspicious Start

Holder did not look the part of a big-league reliever over his first three appearances – and that’s putting it lightly. His first outing shows up as a scoreless 0.1 IP effort, which is fine; however, he allowed an inherited runner to score, which gave the Blue Jays a one-run lead in the bottom of the sixth. He didn’t return for the seventh, and the Yankees ended up losing.

The next time out was much worse. Holder was given the ball in the top of the sixth against the Rays, and struck out Carlos Gomez looking. He then surrendered, in order, a double to C.J. Cron, a single to Wilson Ramos, and RBI single to future Yankee Adeiny Hechavarria, and a single to Jesus Sucre. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of hitters, and Holder looked absolutely lost. Tommy Kahnle came in after the Sucre single loaded the bases, and eventually allowed a two-RBI double to Denard Span. That’s not entirely on Holder, to be sure – but it certainly didn’t look like he’d fare better, either.

Holder’s next outing came three days later, when he was called into the game in the 13th against the Orioles. He tossed a one-two-three inning, which was nails, and then came out for the top of the 14th. The first three batters reached base (via a walk, a single, and an E5), and then Adam Jones struck out looking. And then, this:

I feel dirty just for sharing that.

Through three appearances, Holder boasted the following line: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 20.25 ERA. He faced 17 batters in those 2.2 innings, and they hit .467/.500/.733 in this time frame. And he was subsequently demoted to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Two Months of Dominance

Holder was recalled on April 21, and was called upon that day to close out a blow-out victory over the Blue Jays. And he nailed it down, tossing two scoreless and base-runner-free innings.

A great deal was written about the fact that he wouldn’t allow another earned run until June 30 (though, he did surrender unearned runs twice in between), and it was an incredibly welcome sight, to say the least. And from the date of his recall through the All-Star break, he pitched to the following line: 36.1 IP, 19 H, 5 BB, 30 K, 0.50 ERA, 2.01 FIP. It’s difficult to ask for much more from a reliever that entered the season seventh or eight on the bullpen’s depth chart.

Was there any change that led to this abrupt turnaround? Maybe!

In Holder’s first few appearances, he threw lots of cutters and lots of curves. When he returned to the Yankees bullpen, he scrapped those offerings entirely, and replaced them with more … well … everything else. It made sense, considering (small sample size alert) that batters were hitting .333 against his curve and .556(!) against his cutter, and it paid immediate dividends.

Another Rough Patch

Holder was in Aaron Boone’s circle of trust coming out of the All-Star break, and he rewarded the rookie manager by allowing 10 earned runs over his next seven appearances. That’s admittedly skewed by a 0-out, 7-run effort on August 2 – but he nevertheless allowed at least one run in four of those games. And his ERA jumped from 1.76 to 3.65 in the span of 3.1 IP, which just goes to show how volatile a reliever’s peripherals can be.

He did make history in this stretch, however, becoming the first Yankee in nearly 40 years to allow 7 ER without recording an out. Unlike that pitcher – Bob Kammeyer – Holder wasn’t laughed out of the majors immediately after this outing.

An Encouraging Stretch Run

Holder returned to form after stumbling out of the break, tossing eight consecutive scoreless outings immediately thereafter, and allowing just five runs in his final twenty appearances (21.2 IP) – and two of those runs came in a meaningless game (that the Yankees won) in the last series of the season. He pitched to a 2.08 ERA in this time, and held opposing batters to a .190 BA. That was the guy that we saw for two-plus months in the Spring, and that’s the guy that the Yankees would love to count on going forward.

He finished the season with the following line: 66.0 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.14 ERA (140 ERA+), 3.04 FIP.

What’s Next?

More of the same, I expect. Holder is under team control through 2023, and won’t be arbitration eligible until the 2020-21 off-season, so the Yankees will continue to give him opportunities to succeed. If he’s the pitcher we saw in May, June, August, and September, then he’s a legitimate weapon in any bullpen role; if he continues to have his ups and downs, he’s a perfectly acceptable middle reliever (especially for the cost). And, while I’d prefer the former, the latter is more than fine for the team’s fourth or fifth best reliever.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

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(Getty)

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.