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Hot Stove Rumors & News: Harper, Machado, Free Agents

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(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

Only 107 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, give or take. Doesn’t seem so bad, does it? No, it does. I miss baseball already. Anyway, here is the offseason calendar in case you missed it earlier, and here are the latest hot stove rumors and news tidbits.

Pursuing Harper is “not part of the plan”

Right on schedule. According to Andy Martino, pursuing free agent Bryce Harper this offseason is “not part of the plan” for the Yankees. The Yankees are going to prioritize pitching this winter and Harper doesn’t really fit. That’s silly, of course, because you can always make room for a player like Harper. When’s the last time a player like this — a star caliber producer in his mid-20s — hit the open market? It’s been a very long time.

Anyway, like I said, this report is right on schedule. Day One of the offseason and the Yankees are downplaying their interest in the best free agent to hit the market in years? Textbook posturing. And you know, even if this is true and the Yankees are not planning to pursue Harper, things can change. I don’t think anyone in the front office had Giancarlo Stanton in mind at this time last winter. This report means nothing to me. A team downplaying interest in a free agent is Hot Stove 101 stuff.

Yankees are “lukewarm” on Machado

In addition to totally not having interesting in Harper (wink wink), the Yankees are only “lukewarm” on Manny Machado, reports Martino. Martino says the Yankees were put off by Machado’s postseason antics, specifically his dirty as hell kick of Jesus Aguilar and his unabashed admission that he’s never going to hustle. Machado has had the “dirty player” label for a while, dating back to when he threw his bat at the Athletics, but things really came to a head this October.

To me, the Yankees being put off my Machado’s postseason display is far more believable than simply not having interest in Harper because he might not fit the roster. It’s going to take a lot of money and a lot of years to sign Machado. If he’s playing dirty now and he’s not hustling right before his big free agent payday, what happens when he’s got that huge guaranteed contract? Teams have overlooked far worse things, of course, and Machado is a great player in his mid-20s. Dude’s going to get paid. But I can understand not liking what you saw in the postseason.

145 players become free agents

Earlier this morning 145 players officially became free agents, the MLBPA announced. Here’s the full list. As expected, eight Yankees are now free agents:

New York Yankees (8): Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Adeiny Hechavarría, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, CC Sabathia, Neil Walker

Several more players will become free agents later this week when their options are declined or they use their opt-outs. Brett Gardner could be among them. The Yankees have until Wednesday to exercise his $12.5M club option or buy him out for $2M. Honestly, neither outcome would surprise me.

The Waiver Savior [2018 Season Review]

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(Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees spent the majority of the second-half without Aaron Judge’s potent bat in the lineup, or his steady glove in the outfield, and they undoubtedly suffered for it. And it isn’t just because of his brilliance, either – they simply weren’t equipped to handle a prolonged absence in the outfield due to injuries and trades that left them more than a bit shorthanded. Journeyman Quadruple-A outfielder Shane Robinson and not-even-an-outfielder Neil Walker manned right-field for the month of August, and it wasn’t pretty. The team’s biggest position of strength had become a weakness and Judge’s return was continuously pushed back, and the team was giving away outs with the bat and in the field as a result.

That is, until Andrew McCutchen arrived.

The Trade

In the hours leading up to the waiver trade deadline on August 31, the Yankees sent RHP Juan De Paula and utilityman Abiatal Avelino to the Giants for McCutchen. Mike Axisa didn’t have either prospect among the Yankees top-30, so it seemed like a reasonable price to pay for a month (and postseason) of a still-productive outfielder. Sure, there were questions about his fit once Judge returned – but, given the nagging injury to Giancarlo Stanton, the lack of production from Brett Gardner, and the question marks around Judge’s return, that seemed rather inconsequential.

McCutchen was hitting .255/.357/.415 (115 wRC+) with the Giants prior to the deal, with an excellent 12.9% walk rate and average-ish defense in right-field; that latter part is worth noting, as he had only played 115.1 innings in right before moving there full-time this year. His offense was a far cry from his brilliant peak of 2012 through 2015, but it was in-line with his still solid 2016 and 2017 seasons – and maintaining that would be more than enough to justify the move.

Thankfully, McCutchen would be much better than that.

An Impressive September

McCutchen made his Yankees debut on September 1, and he didn’t look great in going 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts and a HBP. He went 0-for-4 with another HBP the next night, and scored his first run with the team. His first hit came the following evening, when he went 1-for-4. It was a bit disappointing to see McCutchen hit .091/.231/.091 in his first three games in the Bronx, but it was understandable that there would be an adjustment period.

And those three games represented the entirety of said adjustment period.

McCutchen went on to slash .276/.446/.526 (167 wRC+) the rest of the way, with 5 HR and more walks (22) than strikeouts (20) in 101 PA. He reached base safely in each of his last fourteen games, and proved to be the steadying presence atop the lineup that the Yankees needed. He also switched to left once Judge returned, and proved capable defensively in both corners. And, for what it’s worth, he added a bit more swag to an already swaggy team:


The key to McCutchen’s success was his seemingly supernatural plate discipline. He was always a patient hitter, but he stepped it up significantly with the Yankees. Take a look:

(FanGraphs)

McCutchen ranked 6th in O-Swing%, 16th in Z-Swing%, and 9th in overall Swing% in September, all of which are elite placements. Moreover, the league-averages in those rates are 30.9%, 67.3%, and 46.6%, respectively, which shows you just how disciplined he was down the stretch. And, while some may be inclined to call him ‘passive’ instead of ‘patient,’ it’s worth nothing that his 149 wRC+ in the month as a whole was 22nd in baseball, so he did plenty of damage with the bat on the whole.

A Disappointing Postseason

McCutchen was straight-up bad in the playoffs, going a combined 2-for-18 with one walk in 19 PA between the Wild Card game and the ALDS. Aaron Boone had him on the bench for the fourth (and final) game of the ALDS, only bringing him in to pinch-hit against Chris Sale in the eighth … and he grounded out to third.

What’s Next?

McCutchen is entering free agency for the first time in his career in what will be his age-32 season. His age probably makes this his last chance to get a long-term contract but, given what we saw last off-season, that’s far from a guarantee. And this is what his last three seasons looked like:

  • 2016 – .256/.336/.430, 105 wRC+
  • 2017 – .279/.363/.486, 123 wRC+
  • 2018 – .255/.368/.424, 120 wRC+

And, once again, he had a 115 wRC+ pre-trade.

There was nothing beyond that uptick in discipline in his underlying numbers to explain his strong performance. McCutchen’s BABIP dropped, he hit fewer line drives and flyballs (which in turn means more grounders), his exit velocity remained roughly the same, and his hard-hit percentage dropped a couple of percentage points. And all of this suggests that his 20.8% HR/FB might just be the flukiest part of his performance – which doesn’t exactly bode well for a team that chooses to bet on his contributions to the Yankees as representative of his current skills. But a corner outfielder with great plate discipline and decent to good power has value.

It’s difficult to see a return engagement with the Yankees, though. McCutchen is almost certainly looking for a longer term deal and a guaranteed starting role, and I don’t see him as the sort of player that Brian Cashman and Co. would give either of those to.

The qualifying offer is reportedly set $17.9M this winter and it will have zero impact on the Yankees

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Two of these three are free agents. (Stephen Brashear/Getty)

No later than three weeks from yesterday, free agency will open and the 2018-19 offseason will really get underway. Well, at least in theory. MLB free agency tends to be slow-moving — that was especially true last winter — whereas other sports see a big rush of signings on Day One. Much like the MLB season, MLB free agency is a marathon, not a sprint.

According to both Joel Sherman and Buster Olney, the qualifying offer has been set at $17.9M for the upcoming offseason. That is up slightly from $17.4M last offseason. As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract worth the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball. Teams must make a free agent the qualifying offer to receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

The Yankees have a small army of players due to becoming free agents this winter — eight players on their ALCS roster will be free agents and a ninth has an option — and, despite that, the qualifying offer will be a non-factor for them. None of those eight (or nine) players will get a qualifying offer. We can drop them into one of three buckets.

Not Eligible For The Qualifying Offer

  • Zach Britton
  • J.A. Happ
  • Adeiny Hechavarria
  • Lance Lynn
  • Andrew McCutchen
  • David Robertson
  • Neil Walker

A player must spend the entire regular season with his team to be eligible for the qualifying offer. Britton, Happ, Hechavarria, Lynn, and McCutchen all came over in midseason trades and thus can not receive the qualifying offer. Britton, Happ, and McCutchen would’ve been qualifying offer candidates otherwise. Hechavarria and Lynn wouldn’t have received the qualifying offer even if eligible. Their production doesn’t warrant it.

Also, thanks to the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, players can only receive the qualifying offer once in their careers. The Yankees made Robertson the qualifying offer during the 2014-15 offseason and the Mets made Walker the qualifying offer during the 2016-17 offseason. Robertson rejected the qualifying offer and the Yankees received a draft pick, which they used on Kyle Holder, when he signed with the White Sox. Walker accepted the qualifying offer and returned to the Mets. Anyway, because they received the qualifying offer previously, Robertson and Walker are not eligible to receive it this winter despite spending the entire year in pinstripes.

Not Getting The Qualifying Offer

  • CC Sabathia

Sabathia is indeed eligible for the qualifying offer. He spent the entirety of this past season with the Yankees and he’s never received the qualifying offer before. Back when Sabathia first signed with the Yankees, the old Elias Type-A/Type-B free agent compensation system ruled the land. CC is eligible for the qualifying offer this winter.

That said, the Yankees are not giving Sabathia the qualifying offer. They didn’t give him one last offseason and there’s no reason to give him one this offseason. Sabathia would take that one-year, $17.9M contract in a heartbeat. He made $10M this season and, regardless of whether he re-signs with the Yankees or heads elsewhere, he figures to sign a similar one-year contract worth $10M-ish this winter. Sabathia’s no longer worth $17.9M a year. He’d take the qualifying offer. No doubt about it.

The Option Decision

  • Brett Gardner

Gardner has never been a free agent in his career and he might get the opportunity this winter. The Yankees hold a $12.5M club option on Gardner for next season — the option includes a $2M buyout, so it is effectively a $10.5M decision — and, if they decline the option, they’re not going to make him the qualifying offer. They wouldn’t pass on bringing him back for $12.5M only to give him a $17.9M offer, you know? Gardner would take the qualifying offer. Looking for more guaranteed money as a free agent, even spread across two or three years, would be pushing it.

* * *

The Yankees won’t tender any of their free agents the qualifying offer, but, in all likelihood, they’re going to win up signing a qualifying free agent. Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Adam Ottavino? I don’t know, but someone. (Manny Machado was traded at midseason and is ineligible for the qualifying offer.) Here are the compensation rules for teams that sign a qualified free agent:

  • Signing team receives revenue sharing money: Forfeits their third highest draft pick.
  • Signing team paid luxury tax during most recent season: Forfeits second and fifth highest draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money.
  • All other teams: Forfeit second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in international bonus money.

The Yankees sure as heck don’t receive revenue sharing money — they pay more into revenue sharing than any other team — and they successfully avoided paying luxury tax in 2018, which means they fall into the “all other teams” bracket. They’ll give up their second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in bonus money for the 2019-20 international signing period for every qualified free agent. All first round picks are protected now.

The new free agent compensation rules are pretty lax these days — that is especially true now that the Yankees avoided paying luxury tax — and I can’t see how giving up your second highest draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus money would stop the Yankees from signing a qualifying free agent. Back in the day teams had to weigh giving up their first round pick to sign a mid-range guy. Now only the best of the best get the qualifying offer and you get to keep your first round pick. Free agent compensation is no real concern now.

Even with all those impending free agents, the Yankees do not have a qualifying offer candidate this offseason — only four of their nine possible free agents are even eligible for the qualifying offer — and the penalties to sign a qualified free agent are not harsh at all. If the Yankees don’t sign any of their final year arbitration-eligibles long-term this winter, they’ll have several qualifying offer candidates next season. This year though, nothing. The Yankees won’t gain any extra draft picks. They could lose some non-first rounders, however, and that is not a big deal.

Yankees and Red Sox announce 2018 ALDS rosters

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(Getty)

This morning was the deadline for the Yankees and Red Sox to submit their 25-man ALDS rosters to MLB, and, shortly thereafter, the two clubs announced them officially. Yesterday Aaron Boone more or less confirmed the entire roster and it is as expected. No surprises.

Here is each team’s 25-man active roster for the ALDS, which begins later tonight:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (12)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ (Game 1 starter)
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
LHP CC Sabathia
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (Game 2 starter)
LHP Stephen Tarpley

Catchers (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (6)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

BOSTON RED SOX

Pitchers (11)
RHP Matt Barnes
RHP Ryan Brasier
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Game 4 starter)
RHP Joe Kelly
RHP Craig Kimbrel
RHP Rick Porcello (Game 3 starter)
LHP David Price (Game 2 starter)
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
LHP Chris Sale (Game 1 starter)
RHP Brandon Workman
RHP Steven Wright

Catchers (3)
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart (UTIL)
Christian Vazquez

Infielders (7)
Xander Bogaerts
Rafael Devers
Brock Holt (IF/OF)
Ian Kinsler
Mitch Moreland
Eduardo Nunez
Steve Pearce (1B/OF)

Outfielders (4)
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
J.D. Martinez

The Yankees dropped Kyle Higashioka and Tyler Wade from their Wild Card Game roster and added Sabathia and Tarpley. They’re carrying four starters, eight relievers, and a four-man bench. Normally, eight relievers in a postseason series is overkill, especially since they’re not going to play more than two days in a row. Yanks vs. Sox games tend to get wild though. The extra reliever could come in handy.

The five-man bench: Gardner, Hechavarria, Romine, and Walker. It’s worth noting Gardner (left field), Hechavarria (third base), and Walker (first base) all came in for defense in the late innings of the Wild Card Game. I wonder if that will continue to be the case going forward. I guess it depends on the score. The Yankees might hold Gardner back for a pinch-running situation in a close game. We’ll see.

Middle relief has been a season-long problem for the Red Sox and they’re going to try to patch that up with Rodriguez this postseason. Also, Eovaldi was told to prepare to pitch in relief in Game One. Wright is a starter by trade as well. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was the Astros bench coach last year, when they expertly used starters like Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock, and Charlie Morton in relief in the postseason. I suspect he’ll look to do the same with the Red Sox this year.

ALDS Game One begins tonight at 7:30pm ET. As expected, the Yankees and Red Sox games drew the primetime slots. All five ALDS games will begin somewhere between 7:30pm ET and 8:10pm ET. The entire series will be broadcast on TBS.

Thanks to good health and new additions, the Yankees match up better against the Red Sox than they have all year

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(Getty)

For all intents and purposes, the AL East race ended in early August. The Yankees went up to Boston, got swept in four games — they were outscored 28-13 in the four games — and fell 9.5 games behind the Red Sox. That was it. The Yankees never again drew closer than six games behind Boston. The Red Sox took care of business that series and were able to coast the rest of the way.

Starting tomorrow though, the slate will be wiped clean, and the Yankees and Red Sox will go into the ALDS on a level playing field. No deficit to make up in the standings. First to three wins moves on to the ALCS. Given how close these teams usually play — even with that four-game sweep, the Red Sox only won the season series 10-9 — it would not surprise me at all if the ALDS goes the full five games.

The Yankees team going into the ALDS is much different than the Yankees team that was swept in that four-game series in August. The Yankees went into that series shorthanded. I’m not making excuses. The Yankees had enough talent to win and didn’t do it. They played terribly. But the fact of the matter is they were not at full strength. Consider:

  • Aaron Judge had just been placed on the disabled list with his wrist fracture.
  • Gary Sanchez was on the disabled list with his second groin strain.
  • J.A. Happ was on the disabled list with hand, foot, and mouth disease.

Given Luis Severino’s second half struggles, you could argue the Yankees went into that series without their best starting pitcher. (Chance Adams had to fill in, which he did admirably.) The Yankees definitely went into that series without their best hitter. And while Sanchez had a terrible season, he tends to rake in Fenway Park, and the Yankees were without him as well.

When the ALDS opens tomorrow night, the Yankees will have Judge and Sanchez in the lineup, and chances are Happ will be on the mound in Game One. Furthermore, Andrew McCutchen and Luke Voit will be in the lineup. McCutchen was not a Yankees when these two clubs met in August. Voit was a Yankee and he did appear in two games in that series, but he was still Luke Voit and not American Hero Luke Voit at the time.

The Red Sox have a left-handed heavy pitching staff — Chris Sale and David Price are starting Games One and Two, the club announced — and the Yankees will now have four premium righty bats in the lineup that they did not have in August. Three if you’re really down on Sanchez. McCutchen replaces Brett Gardner, Judge replaces the Neil Walker/Shane Robertson platoon, and Voit replaces Greg Bird. Considerable upgrades all around.

I should note this goes beyond platoon matchups as well. McCutchen, Judge, and Voit all mash left-handed pitchers — Sanchez does as well, he had a .229/.354/.518 (136 wRC+) line against southpaws this season — but they’re also better against righties than the guys they replaced. McCutchen’s a much better hitter than Gardner. An inferior defender? Yes, but the decline in defense is more than made up by the increase in offense. Going from Walker/Robinson and Bird to Judge and Voit is just a massive upgrade. Massive.

The Yankees will also have Happ on the mound, presumably in Game One but also possibly in Game Two. Happ is one of the few starting pitchers who consistently pitched well against the Red Sox this year. Just last week he carved them up for five innings before giving up what amounted to a garbage time grand slam to Steve Pearce in the sixth inning. Happ made four starts against Boston this year and three times he allowed no more than one earned run.

Four times in six September games the Yankees beat the Red Sox, and while that feels good, it doesn’t mean a whole lot. The BoSox had nothing on the line in any of those games, especially in that final weekend, and they never really seemed to give the Yankees (or anyone) their best effort in September. They earned that. They had a huge division lead and were able to rest their regulars and audition others for the postseason roster down the stretch.

These two teams last played a meaningful series in August, in that four-game sweep, and the team the Yankees take into the ALDS is going to look much different than the team they sent to Fenway Park in August. McCutchen and Voit are big upgrades over Gardner and Voit, Happ is healthy, Judge is healthy, and Sanchez is healthy too. Right now, the Yankees match up better against the Red Sox than they did at any other point in 2018.

Yankees, Athletics announce 2018 Wild Card Game rosters

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(Presswire)

Earlier this morning both the Yankees and Athletics announced their 25-man active rosters for tonight’s AL Wild Card Game. We were able to piece together the Yankees’ roster based on information from yesterday’s workout. The roster is as expected. No surprises.

Here are the two 25-man rosters for tonight’s winner-take-all game. Turns out I did a pretty good job projecting it last week:

NEW YORK YANKEES

Pitchers (10)
RHP Dellin Betances
LHP Zach Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Chad Green
LHP J.A. Happ
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Lance Lynn
RHP David Robertson
RHP Luis Severino
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Catchers (3)
Kyle Higashioka
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

Infielders (7)
Miguel Andujar
Didi Gregorius
Adeiny Hechavarria
Gleyber Torres
Luke Voit
Tyler Wade
Neil Walker

Outfielders (5)
Brett Gardner
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Judge
Andrew McCutchen
Giancarlo Stanton

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Pitchers (11)
LHP Ryan Buchter
RHP Jeurys Familia
RHP Liam Hendriks
RHP Edwin Jackson
RHP Shawn Kelley
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Yusmeiro Petit
RHP Fernando Rodney
RHP Blake Treinen
RHP Lou Trivino
RHP J.B. Wendelken

Catchers (2)
Jonathan Lucroy
Josh Phegley

Infielders (6)
Franklin Barreto
Matt Chapman
Jed Lowrie
Matt Olson
Chad Pinder (IF/OF)
Marcus Semien

Outfielders (6)
Mark Canha (1B/OF)
Khris Davis
Matt Joyce
Ramon Laureano
Nick Martini
Stephen Piscotty

Notably absent: Greg Bird, CC Sabathia, and Stephen Tarpley. Sabathia being excluded from the roster isn’t a surprise. At this point, he’s not one of the ten best pitchers on the staff, especially when you consider he’d have to pitch in an unfamiliar relief role. Tarpley was said to be in the mix for a bullpen spot. Ultimately, the A’s only have one hitter (Olson) who needs a left-on-left specialist, and he’d be pinch-hit for instantly by Canha, a lefty crusher. Tarpley didn’t have much of a purpose.

As for Bird, I am a bit surprised he’s not on the Wild Card Game roster only because the Yankees love him. That said, he hasn’t hit at all this season, and he offers no defensive versatility or baserunning value. His only role would be as a pinch-hitting option who could maybe park one in the short porch, and who’s getting lifted for a pinch-hitter? No one in the starting lineup. The Yankees opted for Wade (pinch-runner) and Hechavarria (Andujar’s defensive caddy) over Bird. Can’t blame them.

The Athletics are really going all in on the bullpen game, huh? Jackson is the only actual starting pitcher on the roster and I assume he is their emergency extra innings guy. Their bench is sneaky good. Canha crushes lefties and Joyce is a fine lefty platoon bat who could take aim at the right field porch. Pinder, a right-handed hitter, hit 13 homers with a 111 wRC+ as a part-timer this year, and he played every position other than pitcher and catcher. A’s manager Bob Melvin could get creative with his bench.

Severino and Hendriks (an opener) are starting the Wild Card Game tonight. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 8pm ET and it’ll be broadcast on TBS. Winner moves on to play the Red Sox in the ALDS. Loser goes home.

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

  • Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
  • Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
  • Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
  • Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

  • The starting pitcher.
  • An emergency guy for extra innings.
  • An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

  • Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
  • Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
  • Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
  • Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Starters Relievers
Sanchez Andujar Gardner Happ Betances
Romine Bird Judge Severino Britton
Hechavarria McCutchen Tanaka Chapman
Torres Stanton Green
Voit Hicks/Wade Holder
Walker Robertson
Didi/Toe Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

  • Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
  • Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
  • Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.