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Long Relievers, Traded Prospects and Phantom Pitchers [2018 Season Review]

December 3, 2018 by Steven Tydings

If he doesn’t use ABBA for his entrance music, our money back. (Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

While there are some other topics to cover, we’ve come to the end of the player portion of our 2018 Season Reviews. Therefore, we’ve covered all of the important players (and plenty of replacement level ones as well). That leaves the miscellaneous relievers that racked up innings as the last guys in the bullpen or received a spot start and little else. Let’s get to them!

Giovanny Gallegos

After debuting over 16 games in 2017, Gio Gallegos’s sophomore campaign was both brief and mostly irrelevant. He made four appearances for the Yankees, coming up as the eighth or ninth guy in the bullpen and the average leverage index was 0.23.

He would throw two innings in May and then came back up as an extra arm for the Phillies/Red Sox series in late June. The game against Philly was his best in New York as he tossed three shutout innings of relief, striking out six batters. He’d come up as the 26th man for the July 9 doubleheader in Baltimore and got a save with three innings of OK pitching.

On July 29, he was dealt along with Chasen Shreve for international money and Luke Voit, ending his Yankee tenure. He would throw two games for the Cardinals after helping their Triple-A team to the National title with a walk-off hit. Yes, you read that right: a base hit.

David Hale

David Hale signed with the Yankees three separate times in 2018 and made one appearance per signing. The Princeton University product tossed two scoreless innings in the April 23 blowout of the Twins and was subsequently designated for assignment. The Twins picked him up and he gave them one bad outing before yet another DFA.

His last two outings, May 11 and July 6, came in relief of Sonny Gray after Gray was shelled by the Athletics and Blue Jays, respectively. He saved his best for last up in Toronto when he gave the Bombers 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball, keeping them in the game even if they would eventually lose.

A week after his last Yankee appearance, he signed with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles and made 12 starts with them to end the season.

Chance Adams

Take a chance, take a chance, take a chance? After J.A. Happ was stricken with hand, foot and mouth disease shortly after his New York debut, the team needed another starter. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga were both hurt and Chance Adams was on turn, so the Arizona native got the call. His task? Face the eventual World Series champion Red Sox.

Adams held his own in Boston. He allowed a pair of homers and three runs over five innings, holding the Sox to just three hits and a walk. Considering his struggles in Triple-A, it was better than expected. However, he got just one run of support in a loss.

The 24-year-old made just two more relief appearances in the majors the rest of the year. He gave up four runs to the Marlins and threw a scoreless inning on the last day of the season, again in Boston.

He pitched to a 4.78 ERA while repeating Triple-A, taking plenty of shine off his prospect status. However, with both his age and previous success, there’s still something to hope for with Adams. He’s on the 40-man roster now and should get another chance, perhaps in relief.

Stephen Tarpley

We detailed Stephen Tarpley’s LOOGY status late in the season, so I’ll spare you most of the details. He struck out 13 over nine innings in the Bronx after receiving a September call-up and worked around some control issues to hold opponents to three runs. Not bad for one’s first taste of the majors.

Left-handed batters faced Tarpley 18 times and reached base just four times, three via walks. Eight struck out and none got extra bases. That’s pretty superb in an extremely small sample size.

After being groomed for a 25th-man/LOOGY role for the postseason, he was tagged for three runs in the Yankees’ 16-1 Game 3 loss to Boston. The team likely wanted him to take the final two innings but gave the ninth inning to Austin Romine instead.

Tarpley will now ride the shuttle between the Major Leagues and Scranton as a matchup lefty and long reliever. His two-seamer and sinker make him worth the 40-man roster spot and a longer look in the majors. I’m a big fan and think he could stick, though perhaps not in the Bronx.

Justus Sheffield

Justus no longer rules in the Bronx after just three appearances. His September debut came with a nine-run lead, yet he loaded the bases and narrowly escaped unscathed. Sheffield allowed an inherited runner to score in Tampa Bay a week later and was beat up by the Red Sox on the season’s final day.

The 22-year-old starter’s control issues made him unlikely to claim a Major League spot to begin 2019 and cast doubt on his future as a starter. Therefore, he was expendable as the headlining piece of the James Paxton trade, the Yankees’ first big move of the offseason. In Seattle, he’ll get a bigger ballpark and a longer leash to develop. Hope to see him back in the Bronx as an opponent soon!

George Kontos

Forget about George Kontos’ role for the 2018 Yankees? Me too. With the Yankees looking for a depth arm in early August, they purchased Kontos’ contract from the Indians. That brought Kontos’ career full circle after he was drafted by the Yankees and came up with them in late 2011 before being traded for Chris Stewart.

In his only game, he took over for an ineffective A.J. Cole and delivered 1 2/3 scoreless innings during an 8-5 loss to the Mets. If the game had any historical significance, it was as one of Jacob deGrom’s 10 wins of the year. Other than that, just makes Kontos a good name for the end-of-the-year Sporcle quiz.

Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo

The phantom ballplayers! Ryan Bollinger and Domingo Acevedo didn’t actually pitch for the Yankees in 2018, but they both spent brief moments on the 25-man roster. The team gave them call-ups when they were short on arms and sent them down immediately afterwards.

It was particularly frustrating to see Bollinger not get a chance. The 27-year-old southpaw is a former 47th round pick and worked for years in the independent leagues to return to affiliated ball. He even pitched in Australia (and has gone back there this offseason). The Yankees gave him 20 starts in 2018, most of which came in Double-A Trenton’s employ. Ultimately, he was called up twice., but he ever got into a game. Hopefully next year is the year.

As for Acevedo, the 24-year-old received a similar fate. He was added to the 40-man roster before the season and was called up straight from Trenton in July. Perhaps he would have gotten a September cup of coffee, but injuries kept him away, plus the team had plenty of arms. He was fine in Double-A and unlike Bollinger, he’s still on the 40-man roster. His debut could be in the cards next season.

Hot Stove Rumors: Cano, Ellsbury, Goldschmidt, Sheffield, Gray

November 26, 2018 by Mike

I do miss that swing. (Stephen Lam/Getty)

Thanksgiving weekend is over and the hot stove is starting to heat up. Earlier today the Braves signed both Brian McCann (one year, $2M) and Josh Donaldson (one year, $23M), so the defending NL East champs are makin’ moves. The Yankees still have a lot to do this offseason even after re-signing Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, and trading for James Paxton. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees, Mariners talked Cano for Ellsbury

Earlier this offseason the Yankees and Mariners briefly discussed a Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury trade, reports Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Talks didn’t advance much because the Yankees wanted Seattle to include “significant cash” in the trade in addition to taking Ellsbury. Cano has five years and $120M remaining on his contract. Ellsbury has two years and $47M. Rosenthal adds the Yankees are wary about having to commit their DH spot to Cano down the line. There are also two no-trade clauses to navigate (Robbie would probably okay a trade back to New York in a heartbeat).

Cano, 36, hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) with ten homers in 80 games around his performance-enhancing drug suspension this year. The Yankees could stick him at second until Didi Gregorius returns, then slide him over to first base, which he played briefly in 2018. Cano is a better player than Ellsbury, there’s little doubt about that, but those last five years on his contract could be heavy decline years. The Yankees limited their offer to seven years back when Cano was a free agent because they wanted to avoid those age 38-40 seasons, remember. When we’re talking two years vs. five years in a bad contract swap, my preference is the shorter deal. Just get it over with, you know?

Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees pushed Justus Sheffield in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt before sending Sheffield to the Mariners in the Paxton deal. Actually, Olney says “rival executives report” the Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks, which is an important distinction. This is a secondhand rumor. Hmmm.

Three weeks ago we heard the Yankees had not yet shown interest in Goldschmidt, though things could’ve easily changed since then. And, even though Goldschmidt will be a free agent next winter, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for the D’Backs to seek a Sheffield caliber prospect in return. Goldschmidt’s really good! The Yankees pushing Sheffield in talks though? That’s interesting, assuming it’s true. This would hardly be the first time the Yankees weren’t as high on a prospect internally as they let on.

More teams showing interest in Gray

We can add four more teams to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Nick Cafardo reports the Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have expressed interest in Gray in recent weeks. The Athletics and Reds are in on him as well. I reckon more than those six teams are interested in Sonny. Even with only one relatively inexpensive year of control, he’s a good buy-low candidate who makes sense for contenders and rebuilders alike.

The Yankees are going to trade Gray at some point, Brian Cashman has made that very clear, and my hunch is it will happen fairly soon. Likely at some point before the Winter Meetings in two weeks. Trading Gray eliminates the distraction to some degree. More than anything though, it’ll provide clarity. What do the Yankees get in return? How much money do they save, if any? Answering those questions will help shape the rest of the offseason going forward.

Yankees trying to move Stanton?

There are “long-shot rumblings” the Yankees are trying to move Giancarlo Stanton, reports Cafardo. That’s a weird way to phrase it. “Long-shot rumblings?” Huh. Anyway, I don’t really buy this. I’m sure the Yankees are open to moving Stanton because they’re open to moving anyyone in the right deal, but his no-trade clause complicates things, as does having to replace him. Dudes who hit 38 homers with a 127 wRC+ in a down year are hard to find.

The Yankees could of course trade Stanton and replace him by signing Bryce Harper (or Manny Machado), but get outta here with that. For starters, the Yankees should be trying to add Harper (or Machado) to Stanton, not replacing one with the other. And secondly, Stanton carries a $22M luxury tax hit and Harper (or Machado) will come in around 150% of that, if not more, for similar production. If the Yankees are going to obsess over payroll, and it sure seems like they are, Stanton’s the far better value. Well, whatever. There’s no sense in dwelling on this because it probably won’t happen.

Yankees acquire James Paxton for Justus Sheffield, two others

November 19, 2018 by Mike

The rotation was always going to be a priority this offseason and the Yankees have added one of the better lefties in the game. The Yankees have acquired James Paxton from the Mariners for top prospect Justus Sheffield and prospects Erik Swanson and Dom Thompson-Williams, both teams announced. It is a done deal. Officially official.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto indicated the team is ready to rebuild a few weeks ago — his term was “re-imagine” the roster — and soon thereafter he shipped Mike Zunino to the Rays. The Paxton rumors started up soon thereafter and the Yankees were a logical landing spot given their need for rotation help and the perpetual need for quality lefties in Yankee Stadium.

“I’m just honored to get a chance to be a Yankee and be a part of the great history and commitment to winning there.,” said Paxton on a conference call this evening. “I couldn’t be more excited about it. It’s going to be a fantastic opportunity in New York, always expecting to win, the way I do. I’m looking forward to being a part of a fantastic team.”

Paxton turned 30 earlier this month and he threw 160.1 innings with a 3.76 ERA (3.24 FIP) with 32.3% strikeouts and 6.5% walks this past season. He is under control as an arbitration-eligible player another two years — MLBTR projects a $9M salary in 2019 and that’ll probably jump to $15M or so in 2020 — so he’s not a rental. He’s not dirt cheap, but he’s not a rental.

Here’s my Scouting the Market post on Paxton, so check that out for everything you need to know about that guy. Long story short, he’s really good and he throws a lot of fastballs. The Yankees are an anti-fastball team, but, given the way the Yankees treated J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn last year, I imagine they’ll continue letting Paxton throw all those fastballs. That’s how he gets his outs. No need to change.

The Yankees now have four starters penciled in for next season: Paxton, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and CC Sabathia in whatever order. Sonny Gray is still on the roster but he is as good as gone. He’s getting traded, maybe soon. Their rotation depth is Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Chance Adams. There’s still a lot of offseason to go, however.

Even with Paxton and his projected salary on board, the Yankees have about $25M remaining under next year’s $206M luxury tax threshold. That is roughly the annual of cost of one (1) Patrick Corbin. Also, depending how the Gray trade works out, the Yankees may free up $9M or so in that deal. We’ll see. Right now, the Yankees still have some money to spend and one rotation spot to address, plus other stuff (Didi Gregorius replacement, bullpen etc.).

As for the players going to Seattle, Sheffield is clearly the headliner. He took over as the organization’s obvious No. 1 prospect once Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar graduated to MLB, and MLB.com currently ranks him as the 31st best prospect in baseball. The Yankees originally acquired Sheffield from the Indians in the Andrew Miller trade back in 2016. More than two years ago already? Geez.

Sheffield, 22, had a 2.48 ERA (2.98 FIP) with 25.9% strikeouts and 10.5% walks in 116 innings across Double-A and Triple-A this past season. He made his MLB debut in September and it didn’t go well (2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K) but who cares. Countless pitchers have struggled in their first 2.2 big league innings. Sheffield’s a great prospect, but you have to give something good to get a guy like Paxton.

The 25-year-old Swanson came over in the Carlos Beltran trade and MLB.com ranked him as the No. 22 prospect in the system before the trade. I haven’t started sketching out my annual top 30 prospects list yet but Swanson would’ve made it, likely somewhere in that 20-25 range. He threw 121.1 innings with a 2.66 ERA (2.91 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 6.1% walks at mostly Triple-A this year.

Thompson-Williams, 23, was the Yankees’ fifth round pick in 2016. He broke out this past season, hitting .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with a farm system leading 22 home runs in 100 Single-A games. Thompson-Williams hit six homers in 120 games from 2016-17. He didn’t rank among the team’s top 30 prospects before the trade, per MLB.com. I don’t think I would’ve had him in next year’s preseason top 30 but it’s hard to say for sure at this point.

On the 40-man roster front, the Yankees will end up saving a spot here. Paxton takes Sheffield’s spot and Swanson is Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, and I imagine he would’ve been added to the 40-man prior to tomorrow’s protection deadline. A big league ready (or close to it) pitcher with those Triple-A numbers is an obvious protection candidate. Now the Yankees won’t have to add him to the 40-man.

I’m not going to lie, I thought it would be much more painful to acquire Paxton. It’s one top prospect and two depth prospects, basically. Last year’s Gerrit Cole trade, which was much more quantity over quality, may’ve skewed the trade market a bit. Cole and Paxton both had two years of control at the time of their trades and neither fetched multiple top prospects. My first thought after seeing both trades was “wow, that’s light.”

Paxton has hardly been a workhorse in his career — he’s never thrown as many as 175 innings in a season and only three times has he thrown 160 innings — but the innings he does provide tend to be very good. The Yankees needed a major upgrade to their rotation, not a few tweaks, and Paxton does represent that big upgrade. Or at least I hope he does. Getting Sonny Grayed again would stink.

Thoughts on Baseball America’s top ten Yankees’ prospects

November 5, 2018 by Mike

Winter prospect ranking season is underway and, last week, Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their latest top ten Yankees’ prospects list. “The Yankees’ farm system is as deep and diversified as a well-planned investment portfolio … It has so many talented young pitchers and enough athletic and strong hitters that the team is well-equipped to make trades while retaining a strong core of prospects for the future to continue to build around,” says a separate write-up.

The list and scouting reports are behind the paywall, but the list is all over Twitter, so I don’t feel too bad about sharing it here:

LHP Justus Sheffield
OF Estevan Florial
RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
OF Everson Pereira
C Anthony Seigler
RHP Mike King
RHP Deivi Garcia
RHP Roansy Contreras
OF Antonio Cabello
RHP Albert Abreu

Seven of the ten names are the same as my most recent top ten list. I was lower on Garcia (15th), Cabello (31st), and King (unranked). King being unranked on my August list is egregious. Big blunder by me. I’m always slow to run young international kids like Cabello up the rankings. Garcia? Eh. The difference between 7th and 15th isn’t that big. Anyway, some thoughts on Baseball America’s rankings.

1. The Yankees have some stud 17-year-olds. And Pereira is the most impressive. “He doesn’t have any 70- or 80-grade tools, but some scouts were confident enough to put future plus grades on his hit, run and raw power already. They also saw a defender in center field with plus range and instincts with an average throwing arm,” says the scouting report, and again, we’re talking about a 17-year-old. Periera hit .263/.322/.389 (88 wRC+) with three homers and a 32.8% strikeout rate with rookie Pulaski this year, so he didn’t blow the doors off the Appalachian League, but he was basically a high school junior in a league with college kids from this year’s draft, high schoolers from last year’s draft, and international signees from two years ago. The scouting report gives Pereira four potential plus tools (hit, power, run, field) and another average tool (arm) and that’s awfully exciting. He has a very long way to go to get the big leagues. The present ability is very good compared to other 17-year-olds. Pereira is among the guys I’m most excited to follow in the coming years.

2. Seigler’s intangibles are off the charts. With Miguel Andujar graduating to the big leagues, Seigler is my favorite prospect in the system at the moment. A switch-hitting catcher with some thump and good strike zone knowledge — Seigler had more walks (14) than strikeouts (12) in his 24-game pro debut this year — who projects to be an above-average defender behind the plate is my jam. Seigler was also praised for his makeup and grinder mentality before the draft, with Baseball America (subs. req’d) saying “he is consistently referred to as one of the toughest players in the prep class” in their pre-draft scouting report. The top ten write-up says Seigler went “so far as to request a Spanish-speaking roommate so he could work on learning the language” this summer. Pretty awesome. The advantages of being bilingual go beyond the catcher-pitcher relationship. It helps in the clubhouse too. Cliques form in baseball. The Latin American kids, the relievers, the veterans, whatever. It’s only natural for a population to split into groups. Anything that helps bridge the language gap and bring groups together in the clubhouse is a big plus in my book.

3. No one really knows what to expect from King. King, who came over in the Caleb Smith trade last winter, had an undeniably excellent season in 2018. He threw 161.1 innings at three levels with a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts and 4.7% walks. King reached Triple-A Scranton and is all but certain to get a look in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. “In the six years I’ve done this system, I think he has given me the widest range of outcomes. I’ve heard anything from seventh inning reliever to Roy Halladay-lite,” said Josh Norris in the Yankees’ top ten podcast. The scouting report says “plus command” helps King’s arsenal play up, which is good, because “none of King’s pitches is truly a knockout.” He’s a sinker/cutter/changeup/slider guy. I’m not really sure what to make of him. Maybe he’s an Adam Warren type? Or maybe it will work as a starter in the AL East? We’ll find out soon enough. The scouting report calls King “one of the safest bets to have a big league career” among pitchers in the system, and considering what the Yankees gave up to get him, turning two fringe 40-man roster guys into a big league anything is a pretty good outcome.

4. Cabello is a potential star. Cabello is one of those many impressive 17-year-olds in the farm system. The converted catcher — he is simply too fast and too athletic to keep behind the plate, so the Yankees moved him to center field — authored a .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) batting line with 19 extra-base hits in 46 rookie ball games before he dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball in the outfield. Cabello did need surgery and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Anyway, Baseball America posted the entire scouting report on Twitter, so make sure you check it out. They say Cabello has a “chance to be a true impact bat in the middle of the order,” and, on the podcast, Norris compared his hitting acumen to Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s and Juan Soto’s at the same age. Huh. That is some very high praise. That is presumably another reason for the position change. The bat is going to be ready far sooner than the defense behind the plate. As with Pereira, Cabello has a very long way to go given his age, but the fact these two are getting such strong reviews so early in their careers is exciting. The Yankees still have a strong farm system and both guys landing in the top ten tells you they are well-regarded.

5. German has already added velocity. In a separate write-up (subs. req’d), Norris reviewed the Yankees’ 2018 draft class, and he notes fourth round pick RHP Frank German was “up to 98 mph with his fastball as a pro after sitting 92-94 during a dominating junior season.” So the Yankees have already worked their “add a bunch of velocity” magic with their fourth rounder. Pretty cool. It’s all about the arm action, apparently. I’ve read the Yankees (and Dodgers) scout specific arm actions because they know how it works and know how to use it to add velocity. German showed a promising slider and curveball in college, and, in his pro debut, he threw 30.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA (1.39 FIP) and excellent strikeout (34.2%) and walk (5.0%) rates. We’ll see how the newfound velocity holds up over a full season next year. The fact German’s already raised his stock in his short time as a pro is pretty fun though.

DotF: Estrada returns to game action in Arizona Fall League

October 19, 2018 by Mike

It’s been more than a month since our last minor league update, and now that the Arizona Fall League season is underway and the various Caribbean winter leagues are starting to get going, it’s time for a check-in. Here are some notes to get us started.

OF Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) is back home in Georgia and resting, Brian Cashman told Brendan Kuty. Well, Clint was in New York this week, but point is he’s doing better. Cashman said Frazier will be recovered in time for the start of Spring Training.
MLB.com posted their end-of-season top 100 prospects list. Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. sits in the top spot. Four Yankees made the list: LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 31), OF Estevan Florial (No. 45), RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (No. 66), and RHP Albert Abreu (No. 85). Glad Johnny Lasagna’s getting some top 100 love.
Jonathan Mayo put together a list of 20 pitching prospects who improved their stock in 2018 and three are Yankees: Sheffield, Loaisiga, and RHP Garrett Whitlock. “(Whitlock) finished third in the Minors with his 1.86 ERA and had a combined .214 BAA and 9.1 K/9 while touching Double-A,” says the write-up.
The MLB.com crew listed one AzFL sleeper prospect for each team. RHP Matt Wivinis is the pick for the Yankees. “He works with a pair of high-spin breaking balls he’ll throw in any count, and his curveball and slider help his low-90s fastball play up,” says the write-up.
Rob Terranova has more on Wivinis, if you’re interested in learning about the former independent leaguer. The 25-year-old managed a 2.41 ERA (2.81 FIP) with 34.5% strikeouts and 6.7% walks in 56 relief innings at three levels this past season.

Arizona Fall League

IF Thairo Estrada: 6 G, 4-for-25, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 CS (.160/.192/.160) — hip and back trouble ended his regular season on May 7th … he’s healthy enough to play now though, so that’s good
OF Estevan Florial: 6 G, 1-for-22, 2 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 10 K (.045/.160/.045) — ouch, rough AzFL so far
1B Steven Sensley: 7 G, 5-for-25, 1 R, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 7 K (.200/.259/.280) — he’s played four games at first base and three at DH … he started only one of his final 34 regular season games in the outfield, so I guess he’s a full-time first baseman now … either way, he was always going to be a bat first prospect, but the outfield is always preferable to first base
RHP Jordan Foley: 2 G, 2 GS, 4.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 WP (6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP) — I wouldn’t read anything into him starting … the Yankees didn’t send a starter to the AzFL this year (RHP Domingo Acevedo was pulled due to injury) and someone needs to fill the team’s designated rotation spot, and Foley it is … he’s clearly a reliever long-term though
RHP Hobie Harris: 2 G, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 WP (5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP)
RHP Matt Wivinis: 3 G, 3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 3 K (2.70 ERA and 2.40 WHIP)
RHP Kyle Zurak: 2 G, 1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 1 WP (54.00 ERA and 8.00 WHIP) — last year’s eighth rounder was added to the AzFL roster late as an injury replacement for Acevedo, who was placed on the disabled list during the Double-A postseason with a biceps problem

[Read more…]

Building the 2018 Wild Card Game roster

September 27, 2018 by Mike

With four days to go in the 2018 regular season, we know one thing for certain: The Yankees will play the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday. The game will likely be played in Yankee Stadium, though that is not set in stone yet. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two. The Yankees-Athletics matchup is set though.

The Wild Card Game is its own postseason round. The Yankees and A’s will set a 25-man roster for the Wild Card Game, then whichever team advances will be able to set a new 25-man roster for the ALDS. Because of that, we’ve seen some funky wildcard rosters in recent years. The Yankees carried only nine pitchers on their 2015 Wild Card Game roster. Last year they carried ten. That means a great big bench.

So, with the Wild Card Game now only six days away, this is as good a time as any to try to piece together the 25-man roster the Yankees will carry next Wednesday. It’s a bummer the Yankees are going to finish with 100-ish wins and have to play in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game, but hey, if you don’t like it, win more games. Let’s dig into the potential Wild Card Game roster.

The Locks

Might as well start here. The way I see it, the Yankees have 17 players who are absolute locks for the Wild Card Game roster right now. The 17:

Catchers (2): Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
Infielders (5): Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Neil Walker
Outfielders (4): Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton
Pitchers (6): Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, David Robertson

I was initially on the fence about Hechavarria, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized he’s going to make the Wild Card Game roster. Worst case scenario is he serves as Andujar’s defensive replacement. The rest is pretty straightforward though, right? Right. We still have eight roster spots to fill, so let’s get to it.

Locks, If Healthy

Didi Gregorius is out with torn cartilage in his right wrist and he could play in games before the end of the season. He got the okay to resume baseball activities yesterday, so that’s good. If he’s able to play this weekend and has no problems, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster. If not, it opens up the possibility for Ronald Torreyes to make the roster. The Gregorius/Torreyes spot is our 18th player.

Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, has a tight left hamstring and is day-to-day. He too could play before the regular season ends, and, if that happens, he’ll be on the Wild Card Game roster as well. If Hicks can’t play in the Wild Card Game, I think Tyler Wade makes it instead. Wade can play the outfield, if necessary, but more importantly he can run. No Hicks on the roster means Gardner is in center field rather than on the bench as a pinch-running option. With Hicks out, Wade becomes the pinch-runner. The Hicks/Wade spot is our 19th player.

The Starting Pitcher(s)

We still don’t know who will start the Wild Card Game. Aaron Boone has indicated the decision could come soon and he’s made it pretty clear it’ll be either J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, or Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees aren’t going to do a straight bullpen game. Two weeks ago RAB readers wanted Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees want it to be Severino. Happ is a perfectly fine candidate as well.

At the moment Happ is lined up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest and Tanaka with two extra days of rest. Severino would be on three extra days of rest, though he could wind up starting Game 162 should the Yankees need to win that game to clinch homefield advantage. Hopefully it doesn’t come down to that. Based on the way things are set up now, all three guys will be available to start the Wild Card Game. That’s not an accident. The Yankees made sure they had options.

Instead of focusing on names, let’s focus on roster spots. The Yankees carried three starting pitchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Tanaka, Ivan Nova) and three starting pitchers on the 2017 Wild Card Game roster (Severino, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia). I expect them to carry three starting pitchers again this year. That gives the Yankees:

The starting pitcher.
An emergency guy for extra innings.
An emergency emergency guy in case there’s an injury or things really go haywire.

It is entirely possible Happ, Severino, and Tanaka will all be on the Wild Card Game roster even though only one guy is starting the game. Or it’s possible Happ and Severino are on the roster with Lance Lynn, who has bullpen experience, replacing Tanaka. I don’t think the Yankees would carry Sabathia as a reliever at this point, but it can’t be ruled out. Gray? Eh. Seems like a worst case scenario.

I suspect that, unless he has to start Game 162 on Sunday, Severino will be on the Wild Card Game roster. Even if he doesn’t start the Wild Card Game, he could be another bullpen option. Heck, he might be on the roster even if he starts Game 162. The Wild Card Game would be Severino’s throw day and he could give you an inning or two out of the bullpen. Yeah, one way or the other, I think Severino’s on the roster. He’s our 20th player.

My hunch is both Happ and Tanaka will be on the roster as well. I was thinking maybe the Yankees would carry Lynn instead of one of those two because he has bullpen experience, but I keep going back to Brian Cashman saying it is “all hands on deck for that one game,” and Happ and Tanaka are objectively better than Lynn. The bullpen experience is nice. I don’t think it trumps effectiveness. Happ and Tanaka are the 21st and 22nd players (and eighth and ninth pitchers) on our roster.

The Last Bullpen Spot

Whoever starts the Wild Card Game, that guy will be on a very short leash. It could devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly. For both teams. Because of that, I think the Yankees will carry ten pitchers on the Wild Card Game roster like last season, rather than nine like in 2015. I wouldn’t rule out an 11th pitcher, honestly. I’m going to stick with ten though. That seems like plenty for a one-game scenario.

With Happ, Severino, and Tanaka joining the six late-game relievers, we are left with eleven candidates for the final pitching spot: Gray, Lynn, Sabathia, Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Domingo German, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Justus Sheffield, and Stephen Tarpley. I think we can rule out Adams, German, Loaisiga, and Sheffield right now. They would’ve gotten a longer look this month if they were Wild Card Game candidates.

Tarpley has gotten some run lately as a left-on-left guy and the other night Boone told Erik Boland that Tarpley has put himself “in the conversation” for the Wild Card Game roster. Since his ugly big league debut, Tarpley has thrown 5.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts, and lefties are 1-for-11 (.091) with five strikeouts against him. In the minors this year Tarpley held left-handed batters to a .141/.213/.183 line with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Really good!

There is one reason to carry Tarpley on the Wild Card Game roster: Matt Olson. Oakland’s lefty swinging first baseman went into last night’s game hitting .247/.338/.496 (128 wRC+) against righties and .251/.329/.369 (96 wRC+) against lefties. He’s someone you can LOOGY. That said, if you bring in a lefty for Olson, A’s manager Bob Melvin will counter with righty swinging Mark Canha, who’s hitting .274/.331/.596 (148 wRC+) against southpaws. Melvin’s been doing it all year.

In a high-leverage situation — is there such a thing as a low-leverage situation in a game as important as the Wild Card Game? — I’d rather have one of the regular late-inning relievers facing Olson than Tarpley facing Canha. All the late-inning guys have good numbers against lefties. I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which Tarpley faces Olson/Canha in the middle (or late) innings rather than one of the usual late-inning guys. Worrying about the platoon matchup there seems like paralysis by analysis. Overthinking it.

I’m tossing Tarpley into the maybe pile right now. A good series against Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers this weekend would really help his cause. For our purposes, we’re down to Cessa, Cole, Gray, Kahnle, Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley for the final bullpen spot. Hard pass on Gray and Cole. They’ve pitched too poorly for too long. Can’t see it being Cessa either. Kahnle was excellent in the Wild Card Game (and postseason) last year …

… but that was 2017 Tommy Kahnle. 2018 Kahnle is not 2017 Kahnle. 2017 Kahnle would be on the Wild Card Game roster no questions asked. 2018 Tommy Kahnle? Nah. So we’re left with Lynn, Sabathia, and Tarpley. So maybe it will be Tarpley? Either way, we’re talking about the last guy in the bullpen, someone who won’t pitch in the Wild Card Game unless things go really crazy. I’d take Lynn. Tarpley has a shot. Whoever it is, this is our tenth pitcher and 23rd player on the roster.

The Rest of the Bench

A ten-man pitching staff means a six-man bench. Romine gets one bench spot. (No, Romine shouldn’t start the Wild Card Game.) Another spot goes to Wade (Hicks out) or Gardner (Hicks in). If Gregorius plays, both Hechavarria and Walker are on the bench. If Gregorius does not play, either Hechavarria or Walker is in the starting lineup and the other is on the bench. Depending on Didi, either three or four bench spots are already claimed. There are four candidates for the remaining bench spots. The four and their potential roles:

Greg Bird: Lefty bench bat
Kyle Higashioka: Third catcher
Ronald Torreyes (if Gregorius is in): Utility infielder
Tyler Wade (if Hicks is in): Utility guy and speedster

The big name bench candidate is Bird. We know Voit is starting at first base in the Wild Card Game, even against a right-handed pitcher. He’s been too good and Bird’s been too bad. The question is this: What would Bird provide the Yankees? A backup first baseman and a lefty bench bat who could take aim at the short porch? Sure. But Walker could do that too, and Bird offers zero defensive versatility.

Then again, if Gregorius is unable to play in the Wild Card Game, Walker would presumably start at second base — it would be either Gleyber at short and Walker at second, or Hechavarria at short and Gleyber at second — thus leaving the Yankees without a backup first baseman/lefty bat on the bench. Given his performance, leaving Bird off the Wild Card Game roster would be completely justifiable. I still think he’ll be on. The Yankees love him and they have the spare bench spots. I hereby declare Bird our 24th player.

Don’t dismiss Higashioka as a Wild Card Game roster candidate. His presence would allow the Yankees to pinch-run for Sanchez without worrying about Romine potentially getting hurt. Or they could pinch-hit for Sanchez in a big spot. I wouldn’t do it and I don’t think the Yankees would, but it would be an option. The Yankees only had two catchers on the roster last year because Sanchez was the man and he wasn’t coming out of the game. They did carry three catchers on the 2015 Wild Card Game roster though (Sanchez, Brian McCann, John Ryan Murphy).

Right now we have a 24-man roster that includes either Gregorius or Torreyes, and either Hicks or Wade. This is starting to get confusing. Let’s recap everything. This is how I think the bench and 25-man Wild Card Game roster shakes out:

Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	Starters	Relievers
Sanchez	Andujar	Gardner	Happ	Betances
Romine	Bird	Judge	Severino	Britton
	Hechavarria	McCutchen	Tanaka	Chapman
	Torres	Stanton		Green
	Voit	Hicks/Wade		Holder
	Walker			Robertson
	Didi/Toe			Lynn/Tarpley

Those are 24 roster spots. Ten pitchers and 14 position players. The Gregorius and Hicks injuries are the x-factors. There are three scenarios here with regards to the 25th roster spot:

Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt: Torreyes and Wade both make it, and the Yankees carry either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher.
Only one of Gregorius or Hicks is healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, Torreyes and Wade both make it.
Gregorius and Hicks are both healthy: Ten-man pitching staff, only one of Torreyes or Wade makes it.

If both Gregorius and Hicks are healthy — and we all hope that is the case — I think Wade makes the Wild Card Game roster over Torreyes because he’s more versatile and his speed could really come in handy in a late-inning pinch-running situation. If both Gregorius and Hicks are both hurt, the Yankees are kinda stuck. It’s either Higashioka or an 11th pitcher at that point.

The position player side of the Wild Card Game roster is going to depend on the health of Gregorius and Hicks. On the pitching side, the Yankees can pick and choose who they want. We know the six end-game relievers will be there. The Yankees are likely to carry three starters, no matter who they end up being. Do they carry Tarpley? That might be the most interesting Wild Card Game roster question.

Saturday Links: deGrom, Torres, Sheffield, Triple-A

September 22, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees and Orioles continue their three-game series later this afternoon, with the penultimate regular season game at Yankee Stadium this year. That’s a 4pm ET start. Remember when they played baseball at 1pm ET on Saturdays? Those were the days. Anyway, here are some notes to check out.

Mets needed top young players for deGrom

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees were one of five teams the Mets focused on during Jacob deGrom trade talks at the deadline, though they weren’t doing a deal without getting top young players in return. That presumably means Gleyber Torres. The Mets also discussed deGrom with the Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, and Padres, and Heyman indicates they wanted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from Toronto and Fernando Tatis Jr. from San Diego. So yeah, the best of the best prospects.

deGrom has been the best pitcher in baseball this season and he’s under team control another two years, so the Mets were absolutely correct in demanding tippy top prospects. Not asking for Gleyber would’ve been negligent. I love Miguel Andujar, he’s the man, but I wouldn’t trade deGrom for a package fronted by Andujar. I’d need a better centerpiece and that’s Torres. If the Mets don’t contend next year, the asking price on deGrom could come down because he’ll have less control remaining and also because he probably won’t be this good again. That said, the Yanks-Mets blockbuster trade hurdle still exits. As I’ve been saying, I need to see these two teams make a trade of this caliber to believe it.

Sheffield could make postseason roster

File this under “it’s probably not going to happen,” but Aaron Boone did leave the door open for Justus Sheffield to make the postseason roster. “You never know how the next couple weeks unfold. I’m mindful of this time that a lot changes day to day, every couple of days, week to week, depending on need, depending on performance, depending on how guys are looking,” said Boone to Brendan Kuty earlier this week when asked about the possibility.

Sheffield, 22, made his MLB debut the other night and it wasn’t pretty, but he did throw a scoreless inning in a blowout win. There are nine regular season games remaining and I don’t see how Sheffield could do enough to make the postseason roster, even as an extra lefty. Six bullpen spots are already accounted for (Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Chad Green, David Robertson, Jonathan Holder) plus I assume Lance Lynn will be in the postseason bullpen as well. There doesn’t seem to be room for Sheffield, but hey, stranger things have happened.

Sheffield among top IL prospects

In other Justus Sheffield news, Baseball America (subs. req’d) started their annual series looking at the top 20 prospects in each minor league earlier this week, and Sheffield was ranked as the seventh best prospect in the Triple-A International League this year. White Sox OF Eloy Jimenez, who the Yankees reportedly could’ve had rather than Gleyber Torres in the Aroldis Chapman trade, sits in the top spot. (Jimenez went to the ChiSox in the Jose Quintana trade.)

“Sheffield’s fastball worked 93-97 mph and he steadily improved his command of it, making it a true plus pitch,” says the write-up, which also mentions his changeup is too firm at the moment. He needs to create more velocity separation between his fastball and changeup. No other Yankees prospects make the IL top 20, which isn’t surprising. The Triple-A lists tend to be loaded with top 100 prospects and that leaves guys like Chance Adams and Erik Swanson on the outside looking in. (Mike King didn’t throw enough Triple-A innings to qualify for the list.)

Triple-A leagues to begin using MLB baseballs

Starting next season, the two Triple-A leagues (International League and Pacific Coast League) will begin using baseballs made to Major League specifications, reports J.J. Cooper. Major League and minor league baseballs are made with different seams and a different cover, and the Major League ball tends to carry farther. That’s why many young players (e.g. Gleyber Torres) come up and hit for more power in the big leagues than they had in the minors. The switch next year will approximately double what Triple-A teams pay for baseballs throughout the season.

It is kinda dumb MLB and minor league (and college) leagues use different baseballs, but it’s all about cost. Teams don’t want to spend more on baseballs than they have to, so inferior baseballs are used in the minors. At least now the Triple-A and MLB balls will be uniform. Offense will increase in Triple-A — the PCL league average was .270/.340/.423 this year and that’s only going to go up with the new ball, so that’s fun — thought at least it’ll be a little easier to put Triple-A statistics into context. I get the sense a lot of fringe MLB pitchers are in for a rude awakening in 2019.