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River Ave. Blues » David Robertson

The Yankees Will Miss David Robertson

January 5, 2019 by Bobby Montano

(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

The Yankees have now said goodbye to David Robertson for the second time in the last four years. Robertson, drafted by the Yankees in the 17th round of the 2006 Amateur Draft, inked a two-year, $23 million contract (with a $12 million team option in 2021) with the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday. Because Brian Cashman has made bolstering the team’s already dominant bullpen a top offseason priority, we can expect another top arm—but it’s also clear that the Yankees will miss D-Rob in 2019 and beyond.

The Yankees have had baseball’s best bullpen (judged by fWAR) in both 2017 and 2018, and David Robertson played a key role in that success since returning to the Yanks in a blockbuster deal midway through 2017. Robertson may have seemed less than his usual self in 2018, with a 3.23 (75 ERA-) in 69.2 innings, but a closer look at his peripherals shows that there are good reasons to assume that the Phillies just signed one of baseball’s best relievers.

While his ERA was a bit higher than we’ve come to expect, his peripherals remained as strong as ever: his K% (32.2), BB% (9.2), HR/9 (0.9), LD% (17.4), GB% (45.3) and FB% (37.3) were all in line with his career averages. Opponents hit .183/.258/.337 off of Robertson in 2018, again either in line with or lower than career norms. He did strand fewer men on base (67.5%) than normal (76.3%), but based on the underlying data, I think we can expect that to correct in 2019.

His stuff, too, remained as sharp as ever. Robertson embraced the Yankees’ anti-fastball approach, for the first time throwing more curveballs than fastballs in 2018, and gradually added a slider to his repertoire. That helped mitigate the fact that his fastball has become less effective over time—even as its velocity has increased (92.6 MPH average in 2018 compared to 91.2 MPH in 2008). This changed approach worked, and it ensured that D-Rob remained one of baseball’s most effective bullpen arms in 2018.

The ability to effectively make mid-career adjustments like this—especially for a reliever on the wrong side of 30—is a rare skill, and it goes a long way toward explaining why Robertson has managed to be so consistent over his 9-year career. He has thrown at least 60 innings per year since 2010 (he threw 43.2 in 2009, his first real year as a big leaguer), and during that stretch, he has not struck out less than 10 men per 9 innings, surrendered more than 1 home run per 9 or posted an ERA- above 90 (which is the highest of his career and, it’s worth noting, happened back in 2010). Amid the consistent success, he has posted 3 truly dominating years in relief in 2011, 2013 and again in 2017.

Consistent success out of the pen, too, is a rare skill. Think of Tommy Kahnle, who often looked unhittable in 2017 but was unplayable in 2018. There’s a reason that relievers are so closely associated with fungibility, which makes the most consistent and irreplaceable among them worthy of larger contracts—and as the league becomes increasingly bullpen-centric, that applies even for non-closers like Robertson.

While it is true that past success does not guarantee future success and also that relievers are consistent until they’re suddenly not, there is nothing in Robertson’s peripherals or past performance that suggests he will suddenly lose his effectiveness. He is about as safe a bet to log another above-average season as any reliever in baseball, and he is only one year removed from posting a 42 ERA-.

It’s also worth noting that Robertson’s contract structure, in which he will earn $10 million in 2019, $11 million in 2020 and, if Philly picks up his team option, $12 million in 2021 ($2 million buy out) means that he will earn the same salary in 2019 as Jeurys Familia and less than Andrew Miller. Robertson is a significantly better pitcher than Familia by almost any advanced metric and Miller, who was the best reliever in baseball for a recent stretch, has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness.

That suggests that Robertson, who represented himself in free agency, will likely be underpaid in Philadelphia. That itself raises questions about why the Yankees were not more aggressive in trying to retain his services. In fact, the two camps were barely connected at all this offseason, aside from a (conveniently-timed) story about Robertson denying clubhouse staff their typical postseason shares.

Jon Heyman reports that the Yanks would like to bring back Zach Britton, and they’ve been consistently connected with former Rockie Adam Ottavino as well. Both are fine options that would make the current version of the Yankees bullpen better, but it is worth noting that the Yanks had both Robertson and Britton last year. In other words, unless they sign both Britton and Ottavino, it is likely that the Yankee bullpen just got worse—yet again leaving fans to wonder if management actually wants to field a winner above all else.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: David Robertson

Reports: David Robertson agrees to two-year deal with Phillies

January 3, 2019 by Mike

(Getty)

Once again, David Robertson is leaving the Yankees as a free agent. According to multiple reports, Robertson has agreed to a two-year contract with the Phillies. The deal guarantees him $23M and includes a third year club option. I gave Robertson two years and $25M as part of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan, so hooray for being in the ballpark.

The Yankees were not connected much to Robertson this offseason — they’ve been linked more to Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino — though he’d made it know he wanted to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Two years and $23M is an extremely reasonable price for a durable end-game reliever who misses a ton of bats and will pitch in any role. Shrug. We’ll always have this:

It’s been reported the Yankees want to add two relievers this winter, and while adding two top relievers is always possible, my sense is they’re looking at one top reliever and one mid-range guy. Carrying three eight-figure relievers in one bullpen doesn’t seem all that likely, not when L.T.R.E.A.M. I thought Robertson was the top free agent reliever on the market. Pretty bummed to see him go.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: David Robertson, Philadelphia Phillies

Hot Stove Rumors: Reliever Market, Gray, Harrison, Profar

December 31, 2018 by Mike

Ottavino. (Matthew Stockman/Getty)

As expected, hot stove news has slowed to a crawl over the holidays. It’s been pretty quiet this last week or so and it’ll probably stay that way for another few days, at least until Yusei Kikuchi’s 30-day negotiating period expires Wednesday. The Yankees had interest in him at one point. The J.A. Happ signing may’ve changed things though. Anyway, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees focusing on bullpen

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are focusing on the bullpen as they wait for Manny Machado to make his decision. Zach Britton, Adam Ottavino, and David Robertson are all in play and it is possible the Yankees could sign more than one top reliever. Part of me wonders if the Yankees will blow it out and spend a ton of money should they manage to sign Machado, leading to two reliever signings. Once they’re over the luxury tax threshold, might as well go all out, you know? Otherwise they might stick to the luxury tax threshold (again).

Ottavino and especially Britton have been connected to the Yankees pretty much all offseason. Things have been oddly quiet with Robertson, however. There was that weird postseason shares story, which, if you’re a conspiracy theorist, could’ve been planted to turn fans on Robertson as the Yankees let him walk. Wouldn’t be the first time a team has done that. I don’t think that’s the case though. I very much prefer Robertson to literally every other free agent reliever on the market. Hopefully the two sides can hammer out a deal at some point.

Brewers and Padres still after Gray, Reds fading

The Brewers and Padres remain involved in Sonny Gray trade talks, report Jon Morosi and AJ Cassavell. The Reds, meanwhile, are starting to fade out of the picture after adding Tanner Roark and Alex Wood in recent weeks. I guess Cincinnati doesn’t want to dip into their farm system again to acquire another one-year rental. Eleven teams were in on Gray earlier this offseason and the Yankees have since whittled that list down to the most serious trade suitors.

I am surprised 2018 is just about over and Gray is still a Yankee. Chances are the Yankees are waiting until the right deal comes along — Spring Training is still six weeks away, so there’s no rush — though I suppose they could’ve decided to keep Sonny as a sixth starter/swingman, or that Brian Cashman’s public trade declarations have backfired. It seems to me the Yankees and Gray have reached the point of no return. He’ll be traded at some point. Maybe to the Brewers or Padres, or maybe somewhere else entirely. I’ll be surprised if Gray’s still a Yankee when pitchers and catchers report on February 13th.

Yankees still “in play” for Harrison

Harrison. (Justin Berl/Getty)

The Yankees are among the teams still “in play” for free agent infielder Josh Harrison, reports Heyman. He’s a popular guy, apparently. Heyman list both contenders (Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies) and rebuilders (Giants, Rangers) among his suitors. The Yankees could use Harrison at second base before shifting him into a true utility role once Didi Gregorius returns from Tommy John surgery.

Harrison, 31, hit .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with eight homers and three steals in 97 games this past season. He’s a year removed from a .272/.339/.432 (104 wRC+) batting line — that was propped up by an uncharacteristic 23 hit-by-pitches though — and can play pretty much any position, which is not nothing. The Yankees have had trade interest in Harrison in the past too. There are better middle infield options on the board right now (Machado, Jed Lowrie, DJ LeMahieu, etc.) and my preference is going after those guys before settling for Harrison.

Yankees had interest in Profar

Before he was traded to the Athletics, the Yankees had interest in Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, reports Gerry Fraley. They weren’t willing to give up much to get him, apparently. Texas received four good but not great Double-A prospects plus international bonus money in the three-team trade. The A’s gave up an okay big league reliever (Emilio Pagan), a good Double-A prospect, international bonus money, and a Competitive Balance Round draft pick in the deal. Oakland won’t miss any of that.

Profar, 25, hit .254/.335/.458 (108 wRC+) with 20 homers and ten steals this past season. Shoulder injuries wrecked his 2014-15 seasons and he finally started to look his old tippy top prospect self in 2018. Profar was the position player centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan because I think he’s on the cusp of breaking out as one of the game’s best players. The Yankees have had interest in him in the past and I was hoping they’d make a run at him again this offseason. Alas. It didn’t really happen.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Adam Ottavino, Cincinnati Reds, David Robertson, Josh Harrison, Jurickson Profar, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Sonny Gray, Texas Rangers, Zack Britton

Hot Stove Notes: Corbin, Kluber, Eovaldi, Ottavino, Segura

November 21, 2018 by Mike

Corbin. (Norm Hall/Getty)

The offseason is barely more than three weeks old and already the Yankees have re-signed Brett Gardner, re-signed CC Sabathia, and traded for James Paxton. They still need another starter, a Didi Gregorius replacement, and some bullpen depth. Still lots to do. “I can’t predict what’s going to happen as we move forward, other than the fact that we need to fill some needs,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera following the Paxton trade. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees remain interested in Corbin, Happ, Kluber

Even after the Paxton trade, the Yankees remain interested in free agents Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, reports Jon Morosi. Also, Andy Martino adds the Yankees are still in touch with the Indians about Corey Kluber, but the asking price is quite high. I can’t see a Kluber (or Carlos Carrasco) deal going down now that Justus Sheffield has been traded. Not unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, plus other prospects.

As for Corbin and Happ, they’re both good to great rotation options at different ends of the projected contract spectrum. Happ turned 36 last month and is looking at a short-term deal at $10M to $15M annually, I imagine. Corbin is only 29 and is close to a lock to get nine figures. I prefer Corbin despite the price tag. He’s younger than Happ and I think he’ll be the better pitcher in 2019 and beyond. Happ’s not an unreasonable option on a short-term deal though. I prefer Corbin but either would work.

Yankees not among earlier suitors for Eovaldi

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest in free agent righty Nathan Eovaldi early this offseason. Cafardo listed nine teams with interest, including contenders like the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox. This past season, his first since his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi had a 3.81 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 22.2% strikeouts and 4.4% walks in 111 total innings.

It is inevitable that Eovaldi, 29 in February, will get overrated this offseason after what he did to the Yankees this year (six runs in 23.1 innings) and his stellar postseason (1.61 ERA and 2.71 FIP). It’s already happening, really. But man, I am a hard pass here. For starters, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery guy whose entire game is built on throwing the ball really freaking hard. And secondly, I am extremely skeptical of the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” demographic. Nate’s a good dude and I hope he gets paid. Just not by the Yankees.

Yankees have discussed Kikuchi

From the no duh department: The Yankees have internally discussed Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who will be posted this offseason, reports David Lennon. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year,” said Hal Steinbrenner at the owners meetings last week. Not a ringing endorsement, but whatever.

Kikuchi, 27, is one of the top starters in Japan. He threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and 153 strikeouts this past season. Here’s a scouting report. Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras and, from what I understand, he’s already come to the United States and taken a physical so teams can review his medicals in advance. That’s standard practice. That way the two sides don’t have to squeeze in a physical before the signing deadline. Kikuchi has not yet been posted. It can’t happen any later than December 5th. I don’t know much about him beyond what I’ve shared here so I don’t have a strong opinion about the guy. The Yankees do need another starter though. We’ll see.

Yankees interested in Ottavino

Ottavino. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, Cashman said to Joel Sherman, and Sherman says they have interest in free agent Adam Ottavino. The two relievers thing makes sense with David Robertson and Zach Britton becoming free agents. Robertson is representing himself and, for what it’s worth, he told Bryan Hoch he’s been in contact with the Yankees and would like to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Agenting 101: When negotiating with the Yankees, indicate you’re willing to sign with the Red Sox. Robertson’s a quick learner.

As for the Ottavino, the Brooklyn native had a ridiculous season with the Rockies, throwing 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts. A few too many walks (11.7%) though. He turns 33 tomorrow. Ottavino has had some injury issues and it’s been a while since he was that good in a full season, but he has done it before. He’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. My preferred bullpen target this offseason is Robertson. Just re-sign him already. It makes too much sense. The Yankees want two relievers though, so maybe they’ll find room in the budget for Robertson and Ottavino. Would be cool. Not holding my breath though.

Yankees, Mariners talked Segura

Now this is fun. According to Morosi, the Yankees asked about Jean Segura during Paxton trade talks with the Mariners. Obviously this is in response to Gregorius’ injury. Seattle is tearing things down and Segura, who is still somehow only 28, is one of their top trade chips as a quality two-way shortstop on an affordable contract (owed $60.4M from 2019-22). Ultimately, the Yankees decided to move forward with the Paxton only trade. I guess the asking price for Segura was too high.

This past season Segura hit .304/.341/.415 (111 wRC+) with ten homers and 20 steals, and, over the last three years, he’s put up a .308/.353/.449 (117 wRC+) line in almost 2,000 plate appearances. Between his offense and defense, he’s a reliable +4 WAR player right now. The Yankees could’ve put Segura at short until Gregorius returned, then used those two on the middle infield, Torres at third, and Andujar at first base or in left field. Or maybe the Yankees would let Gregorius walk as a free agent and use Segura as their everyday shortstop. Perhaps the two sides will revisit trade talks later in the offseason.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Adam Ottavino, Cleveland Indians, Corey Kluber, David Robertson, J.A. Happ, Jean Segura, Nathan Eovaldi, Patrick Corbin, Seattle Mariners, Yusei Kikuchi

Dealin’ David Robertson continues to, well, deal [2018 Season Review]

November 9, 2018 by Steven Tydings

More of this in 2019, please! (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

One of the more exciting moments in mid-2017 was getting David Robertson back from the White Sox.

Ostensibly, Robertson could have been considered the third most important piece with Todd Frazier to shore up third base and Tommy Kahnle producing a better season to date. But there’s nothing like getting a welcomed old face back in the fold.

By the end of 2018, Robertson proved himself to be the best part exchanged in the deal. He followed up his rebound in 2017 with another strong season as he cemented himself in Aaron Boone’s circle of trust in relief.

Fireman Dave

Robertson’s numbers as a whole were slightly down in 2018, though they still trumped his 2016 performance. His ERA increased from 1.84 to 3.23 while his FIP went up from 2.57 to 2.97. Down below, you’ll see more about why his numbers decreased, but it was still a strong season for the reliable righty.

Robertson was used more as a traditional late-inning reliever to begin the year, not pitching before the seventh inning until mid-May. That didn’t preclude him from high leverage innings, just meant that Boone was going to others (Chad Green, for instance) in earlier fireman roles.

As time went on, Robertson found himself in different spots, particularly after the Yankees added Zach Britton. Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman were cemented as the eighth and ninth inning guys, giving Robertson the opportunity to put out earlier fires.

The right-hander finished the year with 33 shutdowns and 11 meltdowns, the latter a career-worst, though just by a hair. He produced a Win Probability Added of 1.54 for the season.

Trending Up, Trending Down

A funny thing happened in Robertson’s age-33 season: His velocity actually increased! He averaged 92.3 mph on his heater and 83.8 mph on his curveball. that was his hardest fastball since 2011 and his hardest curveball ever.

Despite his increased velocity and reliance on his curveball (more on that later), Robertson saw an increase in contact against him. However, a lot of it on out-of-the-zone pitches. That may have been simply due to hitters chasing his curve. Thanks to the increased contact, he didn’t get as many swings and misses out of the zone, perhaps due to hitters sitting off-speed.

As a whole, Robertson wasn’t quite as dominant in 2018, which comes down to his fundamentals. His prodigious strikeout rate fell by 6.4 percent to 32.2 percent (still great!) while his walk rate went up 0.5 percent. He allowed one more home run. His 9.2 percent walk rate was his second-highest since 2011.

However, some of the 2017 performance had been smoke and mirrors. He posted a career-best 95 percent strand rate in his half season with the Yankees and that fell precipitously to 67.5 in 2018. Regardless, Robertson still posted strong numbers, maintaining an important role in the Bombers’ bullpen.

Experimentation and Adaptation

Like any veteran pitcher, Robertson has had to change over the years. Early on, it was adding a cutter to his mix skew his fastball-curveball approach. Now, he’s moved with baseball trends and thrown the fewest percentage of fastballs in career. He throws his heater (almost exclusively a cutter) just 42.5 percent of the time, down 5.9 percent from a year ago and 38.4 percent from its peak six seasons ago. Additionally, he’s worked in two-seamers and changed everything about how he pitched just a few seasons ago.

With fewer fastballs has come an increased reliance on his curveball. He throws the primary breaking pitch 47.4 percent of the time, eclipsing his fastball for the first time in his career. This isn’t something novel in that the rest of the league have encourage their pitchers to throw their best pitches more often.

Despite increased velocity, his fastball was less effective in 2018, producing a negative pitch value for just the second time (2016). On the other hand, his curveball was nearly or even more effective, depending on the source. He added some differentiation with his slider that he started experimenting with the last few years, tossing the harder breaking ball 14.4 percent of the time with good results.

Mike has detailed Robertson messing with new arm angles, dropping down and trying to throw off the rhythm of hitters. It’s been infrequent, but the wily vet trusts the gimmick enough to use it in the most important spots. For instance, ALDS Game 4 against J.D. Martinez.

One figures we’ll see more tinkering from Robertson as he gets older and utilizes a long career’s worth of wisdom in getting hitters out as his stuff lessens.

Postseason

I’ll drink to David Robertson in the playoffs. (Getty Images)

In the 2017 postseason, Robertson was used in all of the Yankees’ most important situations. He got 10 key outs in the Wild Card Game. He pitched with the Yankees leading by just one in three ALDS appearances. He helped keep the Yankees in striking distance in ALCS Game 2 and was asked to shut down Houston rallies in Games 4 and 6.

This season was decidedly different. Robertson threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with one walk and seven strikeouts, allowing no hits in the postseason. In his one inning in the Wild Card Game, he allowed two line drives but escaped unscathed.

However, there wasn’t really a high-leverage spot to give him. Dellin Betances usurped him as the most-trusted reliever in high leverage spots in the WCG and ALDS Game 2. Beyond those spots, Robertson was forced to pitch with the Yankees trailing. Not his fault nor should it be a mark against him. Circumstances made it so the Yankees couldn’t insert their best relievers in spots to win games.

(P.S. The photo above isn’t even close to the best David Robertson alcohol photo. Trust me.)

What’s Next?

Robertson’s four-year, $46 million deal he signed with the White Sox has lapsed and he is now a free agent. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer, having received one from the Yankees in 2014.

The 33-year-old reliever has made the odd move of representing himself in free agency, a decision he explained to MLB Trade Rumors. He said it had nothing to do with his agents and more about knowing himself better than anyone else:

“Being a guy that’s hung around long enough to know what I can offer a team and what I would like in return, I feel I’m best suited to have all the discussions necessary to figure out my next contract.”

It makes too much sense for Robertson to be back in pinstripes for the 2019 campaign. He’s proven to be one of the few relievers in baseball that stays at or near an elite level for years on end and he should get multiple years in a free agent deal. The Yankees, meanwhile, will need to bring back or add a reliever with both Robertson and Britton hitting the open market.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: 2018 Season Review, David Robertson

Hot Stove Rumors & News: Harper, Machado, Free Agents

October 29, 2018 by Mike

(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

Only 107 days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, give or take. Doesn’t seem so bad, does it? No, it does. I miss baseball already. Anyway, here is the offseason calendar in case you missed it earlier, and here are the latest hot stove rumors and news tidbits.

Pursuing Harper is “not part of the plan”

Right on schedule. According to Andy Martino, pursuing free agent Bryce Harper this offseason is “not part of the plan” for the Yankees. The Yankees are going to prioritize pitching this winter and Harper doesn’t really fit. That’s silly, of course, because you can always make room for a player like Harper. When’s the last time a player like this — a star caliber producer in his mid-20s — hit the open market? It’s been a very long time.

Anyway, like I said, this report is right on schedule. Day One of the offseason and the Yankees are downplaying their interest in the best free agent to hit the market in years? Textbook posturing. And you know, even if this is true and the Yankees are not planning to pursue Harper, things can change. I don’t think anyone in the front office had Giancarlo Stanton in mind at this time last winter. This report means nothing to me. A team downplaying interest in a free agent is Hot Stove 101 stuff.

Yankees are “lukewarm” on Machado

In addition to totally not having interesting in Harper (wink wink), the Yankees are only “lukewarm” on Manny Machado, reports Martino. Martino says the Yankees were put off by Machado’s postseason antics, specifically his dirty as hell kick of Jesus Aguilar and his unabashed admission that he’s never going to hustle. Machado has had the “dirty player” label for a while, dating back to when he threw his bat at the Athletics, but things really came to a head this October.

To me, the Yankees being put off my Machado’s postseason display is far more believable than simply not having interest in Harper because he might not fit the roster. It’s going to take a lot of money and a lot of years to sign Machado. If he’s playing dirty now and he’s not hustling right before his big free agent payday, what happens when he’s got that huge guaranteed contract? Teams have overlooked far worse things, of course, and Machado is a great player in his mid-20s. Dude’s going to get paid. But I can understand not liking what you saw in the postseason.

145 players become free agents

Earlier this morning 145 players officially became free agents, the MLBPA announced. Here’s the full list. As expected, eight Yankees are now free agents:

New York Yankees (8): Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Adeiny Hechavarría, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson, CC Sabathia, Neil Walker

Several more players will become free agents later this week when their options are declined or they use their opt-outs. Brett Gardner could be among them. The Yankees have until Wednesday to exercise his $12.5M club option or buy him out for $2M. Honestly, neither outcome would surprise me.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League, Transactions Tagged With: Adeiny Hechavarria, Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, CC Sabathia, David Robertson, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Manny Machado, Neil Walker, Zack Britton

The qualifying offer is reportedly set $17.9M this winter and it will have zero impact on the Yankees

October 17, 2018 by Mike

Two of these three are free agents. (Stephen Brashear/Getty)

No later than three weeks from yesterday, free agency will open and the 2018-19 offseason will really get underway. Well, at least in theory. MLB free agency tends to be slow-moving — that was especially true last winter — whereas other sports see a big rush of signings on Day One. Much like the MLB season, MLB free agency is a marathon, not a sprint.

According to both Joel Sherman and Buster Olney, the qualifying offer has been set at $17.9M for the upcoming offseason. That is up slightly from $17.4M last offseason. As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract worth the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball. Teams must make a free agent the qualifying offer to receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

The Yankees have a small army of players due to becoming free agents this winter — eight players on their ALCS roster will be free agents and a ninth has an option — and, despite that, the qualifying offer will be a non-factor for them. None of those eight (or nine) players will get a qualifying offer. We can drop them into one of three buckets.

Not Eligible For The Qualifying Offer

  • Zach Britton
  • J.A. Happ
  • Adeiny Hechavarria
  • Lance Lynn
  • Andrew McCutchen
  • David Robertson
  • Neil Walker

A player must spend the entire regular season with his team to be eligible for the qualifying offer. Britton, Happ, Hechavarria, Lynn, and McCutchen all came over in midseason trades and thus can not receive the qualifying offer. Britton, Happ, and McCutchen would’ve been qualifying offer candidates otherwise. Hechavarria and Lynn wouldn’t have received the qualifying offer even if eligible. Their production doesn’t warrant it.

Also, thanks to the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, players can only receive the qualifying offer once in their careers. The Yankees made Robertson the qualifying offer during the 2014-15 offseason and the Mets made Walker the qualifying offer during the 2016-17 offseason. Robertson rejected the qualifying offer and the Yankees received a draft pick, which they used on Kyle Holder, when he signed with the White Sox. Walker accepted the qualifying offer and returned to the Mets. Anyway, because they received the qualifying offer previously, Robertson and Walker are not eligible to receive it this winter despite spending the entire year in pinstripes.

Not Getting The Qualifying Offer

  • CC Sabathia

Sabathia is indeed eligible for the qualifying offer. He spent the entirety of this past season with the Yankees and he’s never received the qualifying offer before. Back when Sabathia first signed with the Yankees, the old Elias Type-A/Type-B free agent compensation system ruled the land. CC is eligible for the qualifying offer this winter.

That said, the Yankees are not giving Sabathia the qualifying offer. They didn’t give him one last offseason and there’s no reason to give him one this offseason. Sabathia would take that one-year, $17.9M contract in a heartbeat. He made $10M this season and, regardless of whether he re-signs with the Yankees or heads elsewhere, he figures to sign a similar one-year contract worth $10M-ish this winter. Sabathia’s no longer worth $17.9M a year. He’d take the qualifying offer. No doubt about it.

The Option Decision

  • Brett Gardner

Gardner has never been a free agent in his career and he might get the opportunity this winter. The Yankees hold a $12.5M club option on Gardner for next season — the option includes a $2M buyout, so it is effectively a $10.5M decision — and, if they decline the option, they’re not going to make him the qualifying offer. They wouldn’t pass on bringing him back for $12.5M only to give him a $17.9M offer, you know? Gardner would take the qualifying offer. Looking for more guaranteed money as a free agent, even spread across two or three years, would be pushing it.

* * *

The Yankees won’t tender any of their free agents the qualifying offer, but, in all likelihood, they’re going to win up signing a qualifying free agent. Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Adam Ottavino? I don’t know, but someone. (Manny Machado was traded at midseason and is ineligible for the qualifying offer.) Here are the compensation rules for teams that sign a qualified free agent:

  • Signing team receives revenue sharing money: Forfeits their third highest draft pick.
  • Signing team paid luxury tax during most recent season: Forfeits second and fifth highest draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money.
  • All other teams: Forfeit second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in international bonus money.

The Yankees sure as heck don’t receive revenue sharing money — they pay more into revenue sharing than any other team — and they successfully avoided paying luxury tax in 2018, which means they fall into the “all other teams” bracket. They’ll give up their second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in bonus money for the 2019-20 international signing period for every qualified free agent. All first round picks are protected now.

The new free agent compensation rules are pretty lax these days — that is especially true now that the Yankees avoided paying luxury tax — and I can’t see how giving up your second highest draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus money would stop the Yankees from signing a qualifying free agent. Back in the day teams had to weigh giving up their first round pick to sign a mid-range guy. Now only the best of the best get the qualifying offer and you get to keep your first round pick. Free agent compensation is no real concern now.

Even with all those impending free agents, the Yankees do not have a qualifying offer candidate this offseason — only four of their nine possible free agents are even eligible for the qualifying offer — and the penalties to sign a qualified free agent are not harsh at all. If the Yankees don’t sign any of their final year arbitration-eligibles long-term this winter, they’ll have several qualifying offer candidates next season. This year though, nothing. The Yankees won’t gain any extra draft picks. They could lose some non-first rounders, however, and that is not a big deal.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Adeiny Hechavarria, Andrew McCutchen, Brett Gardner, CC Sabathia, David Robertson, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Neil Walker, Zack Britton

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