River Avenue Blues

Saturday Links: Opener, Farm System Rankings, Rule Changes

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If Drew Hutchison starts a game this year, the Yankees better use an opener. (Presswire)

The Yankees will continue their Grapefruit League season with a road game against the Pirates this afternoon. Alas, it will not be televised. We haven’t seen the Yankees play since Monday. Fortunately, every game from tomorrow through next Saturday will be televised live. Hooray for that. Here are some notes to check out.

Boone doesn’t rule out using an opener

According to George King, Aaron Boone is willing to use an opener this year, though it doesn’t sound like he’s in a rush to do it. “I can see a scenario. Look, if we are healthy and have perfect health, you don’t envision that. I could see a handful of times where it could potentially be in play for us,” he said. Jonathan Holder started a game against the Rays last September 24th, though that was more of a traditional bullpen game than an opener situation.

The opener is a smart baseball strategy but also hideous to watch given all the pitching changes. For the Yankees, CC Sabathia is their best opener candidate, though he has a long warm-up routine related to his knee and that might not translate well to the bullpen. There’s no reason to use an opener for Luis Severino or James Paxton, which leaves Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ. I think the Yankees should leave the five starters alone and only use an opener for sixth starter types like Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. That’s the way to go.

Yankees rank 12th in BP’s farm system rankings

Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) posted their annual farm system rankings last week and, like Baseball America and Keith Law, they ranked the Padres and Rays as the top two systems in the game, in that order. They have the Yankees 12th, higher than Law (19th) and Baseball America (20th), probably because BP’s lists always skew toward upside. Here is the Baseball Prospectus blurb:

The Yankees are in transition. They have their usual supply of diamond-in-the-rough pitching finds and toolsy IFAs, but haven’t turned this batch into their next generation of top prospects yet. And they traded two of their last generation for James Paxton. I’d expect them to be back among the top systems by next year’s org rankings.

This is not the first time we’ve heard the “I’d expect them to be back among the top systems by next year’s org rankings” thing this year. Six of the Yankees’ ten best prospects are highly talented teenagers (Anthony Seigler, Everson Pereira, Antonio Cabello, Deivi Garcia, Roansy Contreras, Luis Medina) and top prospect Estevan Florial turned only 21 a few weeks ago. Not everyone will work out, of course, but the sheer volume of very young high-upside prospects bodes well for the future of the farm system.

MLB, MLBPA still discussing rule changes

The MLB and MLBPA again traded rule change proposals this past week, report Jeff Passan and Ron Blum. For this season, the two sides are discussing a single July 31st trade deadline (so no August trade waivers) and reducing available mound visits from six to five. MLB is willing to discuss economic issues earlier than usual leading up to the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, as well as push the following rule changes back to 2020:

  • Pitch clock (MLB is willing to push this back to 2022, apparently).
  • Three-batter minimum for pitchers.
  • Adding a 26th roster spot with a 13-pitcher maximum.
  • 28-player limit in September with a 14-pitcher maximum.
  • Increasing injured list and optional assignment minimum from ten days to 15 days.
  • Restrictions on when position players can pitch.

Dellin Betances told Brendan Kuty he doesn’t like the three-batter minimum because it potentially puts guys at increased injury risk if they’re pitching back-to-back or back-to-back-to-back days, which is a perfectly valid concern. I am pro-pitch clock and all for adding a 26th roster spot. I don’t like anything that dictates how teams build (limit on pitcher spots) or use (three-batter minimum, eliminate shifts, etc.) use their roster. Anyway, commissioner Rob Manfred can unilaterally implement a pitch clock and reduce available mound visits to five this year, but he says he prefers to work out an agreement with the MLBPA. We’ll see.

Atlantic League agrees to be MLB’s testing ground

Earlier this week MLB and the independent Atlantic League announced a three-year partnership in which MLB will be allowed to test experimental rule and equipment changes in the Atlantic League. J.J. Cooper hears MLB will experiment with moving the mound back and using an automated strike zone, among other things. Those are seismic alterations to the game and MLB understandably wants plenty of in-game testing before subjecting their players and prospects to the rule changes.

As part of the agreement, MLB will install Trackman (i.e. Statcast) at all eight Atlantic League ballparks and take over as the league’s official stat services provider. Also, MLB will increase their scouting coverage of the league, which employs several former big leaguers each season. Independent leagues have long been viewed as rogue leagues and competition for affiliated baseball, so entering into a partnership with MLB and getting them to make the league state-of-the-art analytically is a historic achievement for the Atlantic League and independent baseball in general. Barriers have been broken.

March 1st Spring Training Notes: Sanchez, Sabathia, Ellsbury, First Base

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Gary’s back. (Also, peep Jonathan Loaisiga’s Tommy John scar.) (Presswire)

The Yankees and Orioles played to a tie tonight. Rashad Crawford had the game-tying two-run single in the ninth. James Paxton started and allowed a solo homer in two innings plus one batter. Chad Green struck out three of the four batters he faced and Tommy Kahnle struck out all three men he faced. I wonder what his velocity was like. DJ LeMahieu started at third base and, according to Bryan Hoch, he made a nice play coming on a weakly hit grounder. Consider that practice for CC Sabathia starts.

Gary Sanchez made his spring debut and caught four innings. He went 0-for-2 at the plate and had a hit taken away on a diving catch by the center fielder, says Hoch. Gary told Lindsey Adler he’ll play again Sunday. Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, and DJ LeMahieu went a combined 0-for-15. Ouch. The Aarons each drew a walk. Giancarlo Stanton singled and walked, and Clint Frazier doubled and walked. Here is the box score and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • As expected, CC Sabathia threw his first bullpen session of the spring today. Here’s some video. “Conditioning-wise, knee-wise, everything felt great. I have plenty of time (to get ready for the regular season). Plus, I’m suspended, so I got an extra week,” he said. Sabathia will throw his next bullpen session Sunday. [Pete Caldera, Lindsey Adler]
  • There have been conflicting reports about the upcoming rotation the last few days, so let’s clear things up: Luis Cessa is starting tomorrow, Masahiro Tanaka and Domingo German are starting Sunday’s split squad games, and Luis Severino is expected to make his spring debut Tuesday after the off-day Monday. That has always been the schedule. Some of the reporters in Tampa tweeted out the wrong days though, creating some confusion. It happens. [Bryan Hoch, George King]
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) is running on flat ground and the Yankees will soon get together to map out a plan for him. “His work’s going well, but we’ll probably in the next week or two get to the point where we have to make a decision to continue to get there, or if we deem he’s ready for baseball activities, then he’ll get going out here,” said Aaron Boone. [Brendan Kuty]
  • For the first time this spring, Boone indicated there is a scenario in which both Luke Voit and Greg Bird are on the Opening Day roster. “(We are) a long way from that,” Boone cautioned, referring to the roster decision. Voit and Bird have both started the spring very well. There are still more than three weeks to go until Opening Day though. [Coley Harvey]
  • And finally, intrasquad games have started at the minor league complex across the street. Here’s video of first base prospect Steven Sensley hitting a dinger.

The Grapefruit League season continues tomorrow afternoon with a road game against the Pirates. Cessa is starting and Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Thairo Estrada, Danny Farquhar, Estevan Florial, Clint Frazier, Joe Harvey, Austin Romine, Stephen Tarpley, and Troy Tulowitzki will all make the trip, so says Brendan Kuty. It’ll be Farquhar’s spring debut and his first game action since suffering a life-threatening brain hemorrhage last April. Tomorrow’s game will not be televised. Sunday’s games will though.

Revisiting the MLBTR Archives: March 2014

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Ichiro & Cervelli. (Brian Blanco/Getty)

We are in a new month, and because that month is March, it means meaningful baseball is coming. The Yankees will open the 2019 regular season four weeks in three weeks and six days. Back in 2014, the regular season did not begin until April 1st. The 2014 Yankees made it through Spring Training healthy. (Brendan Ryan started the season on the 15-day DL with a back problem. That’s all.) Let’s hope the 2019 Yankees do the same.

Anyway, after going 85-77 and missing the postseason in 2013, the Yankees abandoned their luxury tax plan during the 2013-14 offseason, and committed big dollars to Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka. They also made smaller additions like Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts. Oh, and they lost Robinson Cano to free agency. That was kind of a big deal. March usually isn’t a great month for trade and free agent rumors, but that’s not going to stop us from making our monthly trip through the MLB Trade Rumors archives. Let’s get to it.

March 1st, 2014: East Notes: Orioles, Yankees, Braves

Yankees hurler CC Sabathia wasn’t concerned after his fastball topped out at 88 MPH in his first Spring Training outing, Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News reports. “My fastball is what it is. If it gets better, it will. If it’s not, it won’t,” Sabathia commented. McCarron writes that the concerns are likely to persist if the lefty’s heater doesn’t tick up, noting that Sabathia lost a significant amount of weight this offseason.

The 2013 season was the first season in Sabathia’s terrible three-year stretch before he reinvented himself as a cutter guy. He threw 211 innings (good!) with a 4.78 ERA and 4.10 FIP (bad!) that year. Spring Training velocity hysteria was still at its peak in 2014 following the Michael Pineda fiasco, so it was impossible to tell what was meaningful and what was noise. In Sabathia’s case, those 88 mph spring heaters were meaningful. His average fastball velocities:

  • 2012: 93.2 mph
  • 2013: 92.3 mph
  • 2014: 90.6 mph
  • 2015: 91.2 mph
  • 2016: 92.1 mph

Sabathia pitched terribly in 2014 (5.28 ERA and 4.78 FIP) and injury ended his season in mid-May. It wasn’t his arm though. It was that right knee. The knee absolutely could’ve played a role in the velocity loss — Sabathia could’ve been holding back a bit in an effort to reduce the force on his landing knee, even subconsciously — and while his peak velocity never returned, it did rebound after 2014.

Who would’ve guessed that, as this was happening back in 2014, Sabathia would still be out here slingin’ in 2019? He looked close to done that season and it’s not like he was any good when healthy in 2015 either (4.73 ERA and 4.68 FIP). It wasn’t until late in that 2015 season that he adopted the cutter and carved out a nice little second phase of his career.

March 2nd, 2014: AL East Notes: Rays, Lowe, Peralta, Napoli, Ortiz

Jhonny Peralta said the Yankees offered him a three-year contract and the opportunity to play third base, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter links).  The Yankees were Peralta’s preferred Big Apple team since the Mets only offered him a two-year deal that Peralta described as “not really good.”

The Yankees went with Kelly Johnson at third base in 2014, which opened the door for Yangervis Solarte, so in the grand scheme of things missing out on Peralta was a positive even though he was quite productive for the Cardinals. They gave him a four-year deal and he hit .263/.336/.443 (120 wRC+) with +4.6 WAR in 2014 and .275/.334/.411 (105 wRC+) with +2.1 WAR in 2015 before things went south. Missing out on Peralta wasn’t quite as fortunate as missing out on Omar Infante, but standing pat at three years was a good idea for the Yankees.

March 5th, 2014: Teams Scouting David Phelps, Yankee Catchers

The Mariners sent a scout to watch David Phelps‘ recent Spring Training outing, George A. King III of the New York Post reports, while the White Sox and Brewers also had scouts on hand to watch the Yankees’ catchers.  King previously reported last week that the White Sox had their eyes on the Yankees’ catching surplus and that the Yankees were scouting Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks.

Phelps was a good but not great depth arm coming off a 4.98 ERA (3.81 FIP) in 2013. He was the kinda guy who was perpetually available in trades. The Yankees kept him that year and he wound up third on the team in starts in 2014. Good grief. As for the catchers, the Yankees had just signed Brian McCann, and they had three backup candidates in Austin Romine, John Ryan Murphy, and Frankie Cervelli. They kept all them too in 2014.

By 2014, Weeks was basically done as an everyday player. He hit .209/.306/.357 (84 wRC+) in 2013 and had lost a step in the field. New York’s infield was a mess though, and rolling the dice on Weeks wasn’t the worst idea when your starting infield is Kelly Johnson, Brian Roberts, and 40-year-old Derek Jeter. Weeks did bounce back with a .274/.357/.452 (126 wRC+) line as a platoon bat in 2014. Anyway, there were lots of rumors about Phelps and the catchers during spring 2014 and it all amounted to nothing.

March 7th, 2014: Quick Hits: Perez, Pineda, Mariners, Ramirez, A’s

Yankees starter Michael Pineda took an important step tonight on the road back from shoulder surgery, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Throwing a slider that catcher Brian McCann called “pretty much unhittable,” Pineda tossed two scoreless innings and struck out four Tigers — including Austin Jackson, Rajai Davis, and reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera.

The Yankees acquired Pineda in January 2012 and he didn’t throw a single pitch for them in 2012 or 2013 following shoulder surgery. In Spring Training 2014, there was some optimism Big Mike would be in the Opening Day rotation. He was still only 25 at the time and his fastball and slider looked good in the early days of camp. Shoulder trouble and the pine tar suspension limited Pineda to 13 starts that season, during which he had a 1.89 ERA (2.71 FIP) in 76.1 innings. Those 76.1 innings were all the Yankees got from him from 2012-14. There were no winners in this trade. The Yankees just lost it less.

March 13th, 2014: AL East Notes: Sox, Romero, Gausman, Soriano

MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports that the Yankees are planning to give Alfonso Soriano a look at first base to improve his versatility, but there’s been no talk of him seeing any time at second base.

Oy vey. I can’t imagine 38-year-old Soriano at second base. He wasn’t good there when he was 28. The Yankees were very much in their “we’ll play anyone at first!” phase at this point and letting Soriano try it made sense. They had five outfielders for the three outfield spots plus DH (Soriano, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki) and little first base depth. It never happened though. Soriano never played first base, he completely stopped hitting, and was released in July. Remember how great he was after the trade in 2013? Man did it fall apart quick.

March 23rd, 2014: AL Notes: Pierzynski, Harang, Ichiro, Orioles, Rangers

The Yankees are willing to eat part of Ichiro Suzuki‘s $6.5MM 2014 salary in the right trade, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes. No deal appears to be imminent, however. Ichiro, who hit .262/.297/.342 with the Yankees in 2013, does not have a starting role this season.

You will be surprised to learn no team wanted to give up something to acquire a 40-year-old outfielder who stopped hitting four years earlier, even with the Yankees eating money. I get it, Ichiro is an all-time great and a first ballot Hall of Famer, and I fully acknowledge his greatness and place in history as a global baseball icon, but the two-year contract covering 2013-14 was ill-advised and he never should’ve been anything more than a fourth outfielder for the Yankees. Naturally, Ichiro played 143 games in 2014, fourth most on the team. Figures.

March 26th, 2014: AL East Links: Murphy, Romine, Rays, McGowan

Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews) that he’s “hearing from a lot of people about” catchers John Ryan Murphy and Austin Romine.  The Yankees have been shopping their catching depth for weeks, and now that Francisco Cervelli has won the backup job, Murphy and Romine could be more expendable.  Cashman, however, doesn’t feel pressure to move either players.  “They’re assets. We’re not in any position where we have to do anything, but if something made sense, we’d consider it. But right now, we’re happy with what we’ve got,” Cashman said.

If you would have asked me, in March 2014, to rank those three catchers based on how likely they were to have a long-term future with the Yankees, I would’ve ranked them:

  1. John Ryan Murphy
  2. Francisco Cervelli
  3. Austin Romine

Murphy was the hotshot prospect and Cervelli had been the incumbent backup for several years running. Romine spent a good chunk of the 2013 season backing up Chris Stewart when Cervelli was on the disabled list. He hit .207/.255/.296 (49 wRC+) in 148 plate appearances, then went to Triple-A in 2014 and hit .242/.300/.365 (82 wRC+) in 313 plate appearances. The Yankees designated Romine for assignment at the end of Spring Training 2015 and he went through waivers unclaimed.

Now, five years later, Romine is heading into his fourth straight season as the undisputed backup catcher. Murphy was traded for Aaron Hicks and the Yankees turned Cervelli into one year of Justin Wilson and then Chad Green (and Luis Cessa). The Yankees had three backup catchers in March 2014 and, over the next 18 months, they turned them into one backup catcher, a comfortably above-average center fielder, and multiple excellent reliever seasons. Is that good? That seems good.

March 28th, 2014: Yankees To Sign Alfredo Aceves

The Yankees have reached agreement on a minor league deal with pitcher Alfredo Aceves, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). Aceves will work out of the Triple-A rotation, and has a July 1 opt-out clause.

The return of Al Aceves. The second go ’round didn’t go nearly as well as the first. He was hurt and ineffective with the Red Sox from 2012-13 (5.21 ERA and 4.95 FIP), the Yankees rolled the dice on a minor league deal, and Aceves wound up in the bullpen in early-May. I remember Aceves giving up some garbage time dingers in this game, throwing two pitches inside at the next hitter, and Larry Rothschild chewing him out on the mound. The video:

The YES Network broadcast had a better look at it, but I can’t find that video. Trust me though, it happened. The Yankees designated Aceves for assignment after the game and he hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since. He spent the 2014-17 seasons in the Mexican League and didn’t pitch anywhere last season as best as I can tell. As good as Aceves was for the 2009 Yankees, he was essentially done as a productive big leaguer by 2012, and he was a big time clubhouse liability. Dude was kinda crazy.

CC Sabathia’s Final Season [2019 Season Preview]

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(Presswire)

Two weeks ago CC Sabathia made official what we’ve known for a long time now: 2019 will be his final season. Sabathia will hang up his spikes after the season because he wants to spend time with his family, and also because he no longer wants to pitch on his troublesome right knee. He’s accomplished pretty much everything a player could dream of accomplishing in this game. It’s time to go home and be a full-time dad.

Retirement is still nine months away, however, and Sabathia still has one more season to grind through. He turns 39 in July and, last season, he threw 153 innings with a 3.65 ERA (4.16 FIP), which is rock solid for a No. 4 or 5 starter. In fact, Sabathia was one of only 30 pitchers to throw at least 150 innings with a 120 ERA+ last season. As has been the case since his transformation into a cutter pitcher, he was again among the league’s best at generating weak contact. Some numbers (min. 150 innings):

Average Exit Velocity
1. CC Sabathia: 84.4 mph
2. Zack Wheeler: 84.7 mph
3. Chris Sale: 84.7 mph
4. Noah Syndergaard: 84.9 mph
5. Kyle Hendricks: 85.2 mph
MLB Average: 87.7 mph

Soft Contact Rate
1. Chris Sale: 27.4%
2. Noah Syndergaard: 25.3%
3. Jacob deGrom: 25.2%
4. CC Sabathia: 25.1%
5. Max Scherzer: 23.9%
MLB Average: 18.1%

Sabathia’s rate stats the last three seasons are indistinguishable from Cole Hamels’, who is three and a half years younger than Sabathia but will also be paid $20M this year. (The Cubs picked up his option.) The Yankees re-signed Sabathia for one year and $8M. That’s approximately what the Athletics will pay Mike Fiers this year and what the Padres will pay Garrett Richards to spend the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Beyond the on-field performance, Sabathia is an important clubhouse leader and mentor, and he will spend his farewell season giving back to the community. He’s going to honor members of the Boys & Girls Club in each road city the Yankees visit — specifically, Sabathia’s going to bring them to the ballpark for a game and a meet-and-greet — because he said he wouldn’t be where he is now without the Boys & Girls Club growing up. Pretty cool. Let’s preview Sabathia’s final season.

CC Sabathia is good

I am compelled to point this out again. I’ve had readers emailing me and random fans reaching out to me on social media all winter saying re-signing Sabathia was a mistake. I guess their memory only goes back to the ALDS? Must be a curse. Anyway, Sabathia’s last three seasons:

  • 2016: 179.2 innings and 110 ERA+
  • 2017: 148.2 innings and 122 ERA+
  • 2018: 153 innings and 120 ERA+

Does Sabathia pitch deep into games these days? No, he does not. But he averaged approximately one fewer out per start than J.A. Happ last year, and it’s not like the Yankees need him to pitch deep into games consistently anyway given their bullpen. Let him go through the lineup two times …

  • First Time Thru Lineup: .248/.314/.340 (89 OPS+) in 2018
  • Second Time Thru Lineup: .208/.294/.376 (84 OPS+) in 2018
  • Third Time Thru Lineup: .328/.376/.547 (135 OPS+) in 2018

… then turn it over to the bullpen from hell. Yes, Sabathia is 38 going on 39, and that makes him a risk for sudden performance decline, especially considering his offseason heart procedure. His arm is healthy though, and last year was year three of flustering hitters with cutters and changeups. This is not some “he made this adjustment in Spring Training and oh boy everything will be great now!” story.

The late career Sabathia experience features some starts in which he makes you wonder how he’ll ever get another out, some starts where he cruises through six innings on 80 pitches, and a bunch of starts where he’s pretty solid across five innings. He is the team’s fifth best starter — if the Yankees need him to be more than that, it’ll be because something’s gone wrong — and penciling him in for 140-ish league average innings is reasonable. CC Sabathia is Actually Good. Let’s not pretend this is Bartolo Colon throwing batting practice every five days for two years running now.

When will he be ready?

Sabathia is all but certain to begin the season on the disabled list. His heart procedure interrupted his offseason program and he was still behind when he reported to Spring Training. Sabathia will throw his first full bullpen session today, which puts him at least two and more like three weeks behind the other starters. He’s probably three weeks away from game action, and Opening Day is in four weeks, so do the math.

“We’ll keep him out probably first couple of weeks. Around March 1st, expect him to get back and start taking part in (fielding drills) and throwing his (bullpen sessions),” Aaron Boone said to George King two weeks ago. “He is doing a throwing program and conditioning program behind the scenes. With his knee we want to make sure physically he is in a really good spot before we start ramping him up.”

Also, don’t forget Sabathia has a suspension to serve. He was suspended five games for the “that’s for you, bitch” incident last year and we’ve heard nothing about the appeal. The appeal hearing has to happen sometime before Opening Day, though Sabathia essentially admitted he threw at Jesus Sucre intentionally, so there’s a chance it will not be reduced. The best case is maybe getting it reduced to four games instead of five. Point is, he has to serve the suspension. (The Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension, which isn’t a big deal because Sabathia is a starter and doesn’t play between starts anyway.)

Even with the typically heavy slate of early-season off-days, the Yankees will need to use a fifth starter no later than April 3rd, the sixth game of the season, and again no later than April 10th, the 12th game of the season. It seems to me the Yankees will put Sabathia on the injured list on Opening Day, let him sit out the ten days, then activate him and let him serve the suspension. The day the suspension ends, he starts.

No matter the order, suspension then injured list or injured list then suspension, the end result is Sabathia missing at least 16 days and 13 games, and the Yankees needing to use a spot starter twice. Boone has mentioned Luis Cessa making early season spot starts though I doubt that is set in stone. Should Cessa have a rough Grapefruit League season, it could easily be Domingo German or Jonathan Loaisiga making those spot starts instead.

Anyway, back to Sabathia. Three bullpen sessions and two live batting practice sessions would put Sabathia on track to face hitters in a simulated game sometime during the week of March 11th, likely later in the week. Assuming all goes well — not the safest assumption, but the Yankees will deal with any bumps in the road as they come — Sabathia would have enough time to make four spring* starts before making his regular season debut at the end of those 16 days.

* Sabathia has done most of his spring work in simulated games rather than Grapefruit League games in recent years and I assume that will again be the case. Of course the Yankees will want him to face opposing hitters in a competitive setting at some point, so it won’t all be simulated games. I’d bet on Sabathia making a minor league rehab start with High-A Tampa while on the injured list in April. Maybe even two rehab starts. We’ll see.

It would take a minor miracle at this point for Sabathia to be ready for Opening Day. I just can’t see it. The Yankees aren’t going to push him. They don’t need him to be ready on Opening Day either. The Yankees can align their early season rotation in such a way that the spot starter makes his two starts against the lowly Tigers and Orioles, which is about as preferable as it gets. Right now, Sabathia’s on track to return in mid-April, about two weeks into the season.

“I think that’s getting too far ahead of ourselves right now,” Boone said to George King recently when asked for Sabathia’s return date. “I think first things first, get him on the mound, throw his side, then we’ll see how he progresses and see where we’re at. We may have to iron out something with that at some point, but we’re not there yet. He is doing well. He’s getting the strength back. Getting a little bit better. His arm feels great. He feels good. So I think the momentum’s going the right way.”

History in the making

(Presswire)

Sabathia is poised to reach several big career milestones this year. He is four wins away from becoming the 13th left-hander in history with 250 wins, and he has a decent shot at getting the ten wins he needs to become one of the ten winningest southpaws in baseball history. An individual win or a season’s worth of wins don’t tell us much. Across an entire career, they speak to longevity and effectiveness, two traits that define Sabathia.

Also, Sabathia is 14 strikeouts away from joining the 3,000-strikeout club. He’ll become only the 17th pitcher in history with 3,000 strikeouts and the third lefty. Here is the all-time lefty strikeout list:

  1. Randy Johnson: 4,875
  2. Steve Carlton: 4,136
  3. CC Sabathia: 2,986
  4. Mickey Lolich: 2,832
  5. Frank Tanana: 2,773

Sabathia already holds the American League record for strikeouts by a left-hander. Soon he’ll become only the third lefty in the 3,000-strikeout club. Of the 16 pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts, 14 are in the Hall of Fame. Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling are the exceptions. Clemens will likely never get into the Hall of Fame. Schilling is on track to get into Cooperstown in a year or two.

As for the Yankees, Sabathia is three wins away from moving into the top ten on the franchise’s all-time wins list. He’s 141.1 innings away from moving into the top ten innings list and 185 strikeouts away from passing Ron Guidry and taking over sole possession of third place on the franchise strikeout list. That probably won’t happen, Sabathia isn’t a big strikeout pitcher anymore, but it’s not completely out of reach either.

We’ll no doubt talk more about Sabathia’s legacy after the season, once his playing career is over, but no matter what happens this year he is clearly one of the best starting pitchers in Yankees history, and he’ll deserves serious Hall of Fame consideration when the time comes. Joining the 3,000-strikeout club is always impressive and reaching 250 wins in this day and age means something. Sabathia should reach both milestones early this year.

* * *

Sabathia’s days as a workhorse ace have been over for more than a half-decade now, and if you’re expecting him to be anything more than the club’s fifth best starter, you’re expecting too much. Maybe he has a big 2008 Mike Mussina farewell season in him. That’d be cool. I’ll never forget Mussina saying he made the decision to retire before the season, and it allowed him to pitch with a clear head all year. Sabathia going out with a 2008 Mussina season and a ring would be an all-time great farewell season.

Mailbag: Hicks, Bird, Gonzalez, Cashman, Expansion, Betances

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Got a dozen questions in the mailbag this week. Good mailbag, I think. As always, send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can. Don’t take it personally if yours doesn’t get answered. We get a lot of questions each week and can only answer so many. Keep tryin’.

Hicksie. (Presswire)

Steve asks: While Hicks’ contract is a great deal for the Yankees, this has to be one of the weirder contracts of recent memory, no? The combination of years and salary are just odd. Typically the type of players that get 7 years get way more $$, can you think of any comps? Thanks.

It is an unusual structure. It’s a lot of years with a relatively low average annual value, which leads me to believe the Yankees traded extra years for luxury tax savings. The Reds gave Eugenio Suarez a seven-year, $66M extension last year, but he was three years away from free agency, not one year away like Hicks.

I went back ten years to find players with at least five years of service time (like Hicks) who signed contracts with at least seven guaranteed years. Here are the smallest average annual values:

  1. Dustin Pedroia: $13.75M (eight years, $110M)
  2. Matt Holliday: $17.14M (seven years, $120M)
  3. David Wright: $17.25M (eight years, $138M)
  4. Eric Hosmer: $18M (eight years, $144M)
  5. Jayson Werth: $18M (seven years, $126M)
  6. Shin-Soo Choo: $18.57M (seven years, $130M)

Those are the only contracts that fit our criteria (5+ years of service time, 7+ years long) with a sub-$20M average annual value over the last ten years. The lowest average annual value is still nearly 40% larger than Hicks’. Crazy. You have to go all the way back to Scott Rolen’s eight-year, $90M contract ($11.25M per year) in 2002 to find a contract that fits our criteria with a lower average annual value than Pedroia’s. So yes, Hicks’ contract is very usual. Contracts this long with an average annual value this low basically never happen. Until now, anyway.

Steven asks: Lets say (and pray) that Bird and Voit both have good spring training. Any chance they both make the team, and one of them typically DHs with Stanton moving to left?

Aaron Boone has indicated the Yankees won’t carry both Luke Voit and Greg Bird on the Opening Day roster. With a three-man bench, carrying two first base only guys really hurts roster flexibility. Also, given what we’ve seen out of Bird the last two years, there’s a decent chance 35-year-old Brett Gardner is still a better player given his defense and baserunning. I’m not sure there’s anything Bird can do this spring to win a roster spot. I’m really not. He was so bad last year — it wasn’t just bad BABIP luck or something, there was no life in his bat — that I don’t think anything he does this spring will change the team’s mind. Spring Training is full of lies. Don’t trust the numbers. Let Bird go to Triple-A, show he can stay healthy and produce, then figure out a way to get him into the lineup if he responds well. Opening Day is too soon and he’s lost the benefit of the doubt.

Doron asks: I dunno why, but I am getting a strong Jose Quintana vibe on Nestor Cortes. What do you think?

Nah. Cortes’ fastball averaged 88.2 mph during his stint with the Orioles last year and his Triple-A strikeout (20.8%) and swing-and-miss (8.8%) rates don’t exactly scream MLB success. Quintana had a better fastball and a much better curveball, and he didn’t walk as many batters at the time the Yankees let him go. He went to the White Sox, they taught him a cutter, and he took a big step forward. Maybe Cortes can hang as an up-and-down lefty specialist. There’s no out-pitch here though, and not enough fastball to keep hitters honest. He is a great Triple-A pitcher but there’s little reason to believe he can get big leaguers out consistently. He and Quintana are very different animals. Quintana had much better pure stuff, better control, and he’s shown he has a great feel for pitching as well. I wouldn’t worry about Cortes turning into the next “one who got away.”

Steven asks: NYY paid more for DJ LeMahieu (2 yrs/24M) than Twins paid for Marwin Gonzalez (2 yrs/21M). Who you rather have?

Gonzalez. He’s a better hitter — Gonzalez will never hit .303/.377/.530 (144 wRC+) like he did in 2017 again, but four times in the last five years he’s been a 100 wRC+ or better player — and a switch-hitter, plus he’s a good defender who is actually versatile and doesn’t have to learn other positions like LeMahieu. The money is essentially a wash and they’re basically the same age, but Gonzalez is a switch-hitter, a better hitter, and more versatile. To me, that makes up for LeMahieu being a Gold Glove second baseman and Gonzalez being merely a solid defender. LeMahieu is fine but I’d rather have Marwin. Keep in mind though, these guys signed a month apart, and you can’t assume Gonzalez would’ve taken the same offer to come to New York. Had the Yankees passed on LeMahieu and continued to wait out the market, it is entirely possible they could’ve wound up with neither guy. In a vacuum, give me Gonzalez.

Marwin. (Anthony Souffle/Star Tribune)

Travis asks: So, apart from wanting the Yankees to have signed either/or Machado and Harper…as Yankees fans, did we get a best case scenario (if Harper signs with Philly) in that neither of them are in the American League (or the AL East) and not on the same team?

Pretty close to the best case scenario, I’d say. The best case would’ve been Manny Machado and Bryce Harper going to National League teams with no real shot at contention anytime soon. I guess that means the Marlins? As good as those two are, the Marlins would likely still be a few years away from a postseason (or World Series) appearance even after signing both of them. The Padres are on the rise because of their farm system, though they’re probably a year or two away from really breaking out. The Yankees will see Machado this year (three interleague games) but probably don’t have to worry about facing him in the World Series for a little while. Harper signing with the Phillies definitely puts him in “the Yankees might see him in the World Series this year” territory. This isn’t the absolute best case scenario, but it’s close. Keeping them away from the AL East is the next best thing to signing them.

Alessandro asks: Hick’s extension has got me thinking: Who has better long term upside, Florial or Frazier? Who would you rather keep?

Estevan Florial has more long-term upside but I’d rather keep Clint Frazier. The best case scenario for both is a bona fide middle of the order masher. Florial is a better defender and a better runner though, plus he plays the more premium position, which is why he has the higher upside. That said, Frazier is about as close to big league ready as it gets. Florial didn’t have a great year in High-A last season — surely the wrist injury had something to do with that — and his pitch recognition is a real problem. If it clicks, forget it, he’ll be a star. The odds of it clicking are small though. Frazier has shown some skills at the big league level and is much closer to reaching his ceiling as a non-switch-hitting version of Nick Swisher than Florial is to reaching his ceiling as … lefty hitting George Springer?

Paul asks: How much longer do you think Cashman will be the Yankees GM? He’s awesome, but he’s been around forever. At some point you have to think either he’ll retire or not get renewed.

Brian Cashman is the longest tenured general manager in baseball and it is not close. He was named GM in February 1998. Rangers GM Jon Daniels is the second longest tenured GM. He was hired in October 2005. (Billy Beane was promoted to president of baseball operations in 2015.) I’ve given up trying to guess when Cashman will no longer be the GM, either because he gets promoted or leaves the organization. I thought he might leave when his contract was up during the 2004-05 offseason and the Phillies reportedly chased him hard. I thought he would get promoted to president of baseball operations (or something along those lines) during the 2014-15 offseason, with Billy Eppler taking over as GM, but nope. Cashman signed a new five-year contract last offseason, so he’s not going anywhere anytime soon, not unless something crazy happens and the Yankees collapse. Twenty years is an eternity for a GM in any sport but there are no indications Cashman’s time will be up soon. He is very loyal to the Yankees — they are literally the only employer he’s had in his adult life — so my guess is when the time comes and Cashman is no longer the GM, it’s because he transitions into another role with the organization.

Rob asks: Hey Mike, do you see MLB ever expanding to four divisions of four (north, south, east, west alignment), removing the unbalanced schedule, and going back to the four best teams in the playoffs?

Yes to expansion and four divisions, maybe to eliminating the unbalanced schedule, no to four teams in the postseason. The Wild Card Game is too successful (i.e. a moneymaker for MLB) for me to think it’s going away. Maybe they’ll turn it into a best-of-three series at some point, but I don’t think we’re going back to four teams in the postseason. More teams in the postseason equals more revenue and that’s the entire point. MLB is only adding postseason spots from here on out. Not taking them away.

Expansion is inevitable. I don’t know if it’s five years away or ten years away or 50 years away, but it is coming. Two new teams equals two 16-team leagues and four four-team divisions. I guess the four division winners and the best non-division winner go to the postseason each year? The worst division winner and the fifth team play the Wild Card Game? I dunno. Interleague play isn’t going anywhere and balancing the schedule with 32 teams and a 162-game season probably doesn’t work. They’d have to shorten the schedule, which the MLBPA is pushing for anyway.

The people love Swish. (Presswire)

Brandon asks: In light of the Aaron Hicks extension, I figured this would be a good time to ask. Which trade was the bigger steal: Swisher for Wilson Betemit or Hicks for John Ryan Murphy?

Hicks is awesome but it has to be Nick Swisher. The extension and the trade are two separate entities, and the Yankees gave up nothing in both trades, so that isn’t a factor. The Yankees acquired four years of Hicks and, at best, he will give then three above-average seasons. The Yankees acquired four years of Swisher and he gave them four above-average seasons. To put it another way, Swisher was at +14.2 WAR in his four seasons in pinstripes. Hicks is at +8.0 WAR in three years. Does he have a +6.2 WAR season in him in 2019? It is definitely possible. Right now though, I lean Swisher because he was very good all four years with the Yankees. Hicks had the dud year in 2016. Both were phenomenal trades. The Swisher, Hicks, and Didi Gregorius trades were massive wins that, individually, would headline the resume for many other general managers. Cashman and the Yankees made all three trades in the span of seven years. Pretty amazing.

Anonymous asks: I’m a huge Dellin Betances fan & felt he should have made the all-star team in 2018. Where do you rank him amongst the Yankee relievers?

I think there’s a good case to be made Betances is the third best reliever in Yankees history. Mariano Rivera is in his own little world, obviously. To me, Dave Righetti is a distant second to Rivera but also a good bit ahead of the next tier, which includes Betances, David Robertson, Goose Gossage, and Sparky Lyle. Here is the franchise WAR leaderboard for relievers:

  1. Mariano Rivera: +56.3 WAR (+2.6 WAR per 60 IP)
  2. Dave Righetti: +23.0 WAR (+1.2 WAR per 60 IP)
  3. Goose Gossage: +18.9 WAR (+2.1 WAR per 60 IP)
  4. Sparky Lyle: +15.0 WAR (+1.2 WAR per 60 IP)
  5. Johnny Murphy: +14.1 WAR (+0.9 WAR per 60 IP)
  6. David Robertson: +13.1 WAR (+1.6 WAR per 60 IP)
  7. Dellin Betances: +11.6 WAR (+1.8 WAR per 60 IP)

Betances is seventh in WAR but everyone ahead of him has thrown at least 117 more innings in pinstripes, which is why I included WAR per 60 innings. There is definitely something to be said for longevity, that’s why I have Righetti second on my personal list, but on a rate basis Betances has been as good as anyone other than Rivera. (It’s silly to pretend WAR is so exact that a +0.3 WAR/60 difference between Betances and Gossage is meaningful.)

Dellin has at least one more year to go with the Yankees and hopefully many more after that. By the end of a hypothetical three-year extension, Betances could very well be the clear cut third best reliever in team history behind Rivera and Righetti, and at that point, he might be closing in on Righetti as well.

Update: I included Righetti’s time as a starter in the list above like the dope I am. He was at +12.7 WAR (+1.2 WAR per 60 IP) as a reliever. So I guess that makes the argument Betances is one of the top three relievers in team history even stronger.

Lawrence asks: In your column on Wednesday, you stated that Betances’s feat of striking out at least one batter in 44 straight appearances was the longest such streak in American League history. You didn’t qualify that as just a record for relievers. Hard to believe that Ryan, or Clemens or Johnson (Randy or Walter) never went 44 straight with at least one strikeout. How far did they go? And who has the National League record? Another reliever?

Yeah, that’s my bad, I should’ve noted it is the reliever record. It’s an important distinction. Betances has the American League record (and MLB single-season record) with 44 straight appearances with a strikeout. Aroldis Chapman has the National League record with 49 appearances spanning two seasons back when he was with the Reds. Here’s the leaderboard for starting pitchers:

  1. Tom Seaver: 411 straight starts with a strikeout (1967-78)
  2. Nolan Ryan: 382 starts (1979-92)
  3. Curt Schilling: 378 starts (1993-2007)
  4. David Cone: 347 starts (1989-2003)
  5. Doc Gooden: 347 starts (1984-97)

Cole Hamels is ninth with 332 straight starts with a strikeout and that’s the longest active streak. Clayton Kershaw (316 starts) and Gio Gonzalez (307 starts) are both working on active streaks longer than 300 starts and David Price (289 starts) and CC Sabathia (283 starts) are both closing in on 300 consecutive starts with a strikeout. If we look at all pitching appearances, not just starts, Ryan’s 382-game streak is the longest in history. At some point during his 411-start streak Seaver made a relief appearance and failed to strike out a batter.

Jeremy asks: What is the reasoning behind not televising all Spring Training games? Sure, viewership will be far lower than a regular season game but I have to imagine ratings would be higher than a Centerstage rerun or whatever YES will air during that time.

It’s all about cost. At some point the cost of broadcasting games (paying the broadcasters and crew, covering their travel and lodging, etc.) outweighs how much money those broadcasts bring in. The network does the math, says profits are maximized at X number of broadcasts, so that’s how many games they broadcast. That’s all it is. Every network has scaled back on spring broadcasts in recent years but the YES Network still shows more than most. They’re broadcasting 12 games this spring, all at home in Tampa so the crew and equipment doesn’t have to move around. Fortunately other networks usually broadcast games when their team plays the Yankees because the Yankees equal ratings, so we get a lot of road broadcasts on MLB.tv and MLB Network. Other fans aren’t so lucky.

Feb. 28th Spring Training Notes: Severino, Chapman, Sanchez, Paxton, Wilson

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The Yankees beat the Pirates this afternoon and are 3-2 this spring. Troy Tulowitzki clubbed a three-run home run, his second dinger of the spring. “I’m probably more excited about how well he’s moving in the field and how he’s attacking the ball and just playing free and easy. He looks really athletic out there,” said Aaron Boone to Brendan Kuty after the game. Tyler Wade also went deep, and Greg Bird and Aaron Judge both had doubles. Bird is 5-for-8 (.625) with two doubles and a homer so far. He needs a good spring and is having one so far.

J.A. Happ made his spring debut and allowed three runs and two homers in 1.1 innings. I wouldn’t sweat that at all. A veteran like him is just going through the motions on February 28th. Adam Ottavino and Zack Britton both made their spring debuts as well. Ottavino allowed two runs on two hits and a walk. Britton tossed a scoreless frame. The important thing: Everyone’s healthy. Here’s the box score and here are today’s notes from Tampa:

  • As for yesterday’s report that Happ was starting on Friday and Paxton on Saturday, that was obviously wrong. Seems like someone wrote the wrong days in their notebook or something like that rather than the Yankees changing their pitching plans, then changing them back again. Anyway, Paxton starts tomorrow and Masahiro Tanaka starts Saturday.
  • Luis Severino and Aroldis Chapman threw simulated games today as scheduled. Giancarlo Stanton almost hit Severino with a hard-hit comebacker, which would’ve been bad. Here’s video. “It’s not fun,” Severino said of facing Stanton and Gary Sanchez. “I’m healthy and feel really good,” said Chapman when asked about his knee. [Lindsey Alder, Mark Didtler]
  • Sanchez (shoulder surgery) will indeed make his Grapefruit League debut tomorrow night as scheduled. He’s going to catch a few innings. The Yankees held Sanchez out of the first week of games as a precaution. Also, Tulowitzki will play four innings Saturday as the Yankees ease him into things. [Coley Harvey, Brendan Kuty]
  • Paxton has been picking Andy Pettitte’s brain this spring. “(We talked) about our back sides, our arm swings. We both have a tendency to get long. Towards the end of his career, he tried to shorten things up, took stress off the shoulder. He was chatting about that a little bit,” said Paxton. [George King, Ken Davidoff]
  • And finally, the Yankees don’t know whether Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson will join them for their Spring Training again this year. It was reported he would a few weeks ago, though I guess that was not set in stone. [Erik Boland]

The Yankees will play their first night game of the spring tomorrow when they host Orioles at George M. Steinbrenner Field. That game will not be televised. The next Yankees broadcast is Sunday.