River Avenue Blues

DJ LeMahieu may not have a set position, but the Yankees plan to play him nearly every day

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(Presswire)

Earlier this week bad weather denied us a chance to see DJ LeMahieu play a position other than second base for the first time since 2014. He was slated to play third base in Tuesday’s rained out game. The Yankees signed LeMahieu, a career second baseman, with the intention of turning him into a super utility infielder. “I was told to bring a lot of gloves,” he joked during his introductory conference call.

The 30-year-old LeMahieu is a three-time Gold Glover who leads all second basemen with +29 DRS the last three seasons. Signing him and putting him at second full-time with Gleyber Torres sliding over to shortstop would’ve been the easiest and most straightforward move, but the Yankees will instead move LeMahieu around. They believe his defensive tools will translate elsewhere on the diamond and LeMahieu’s onboard with the plan.

“I see they’ve got a lot of talented infielders there and we’ll kind of see how it unfolds. I’ll be ready to go wherever I’m needed,” LeMahieu said to Dan Martin last month. “I’d be comfortable (at short). I played quite a bit of third in the minors, actually, primarily third in the minors and also some short. It’s something I’d have to work on, but I definitely think I could handle it here and there.”

My guess is LeMahieu will be fine at third. His quickness, hands, and arm are all very good and should translate well to the hot corner. I’m sure he’ll have no trouble catching throws from other infielders at first base too. The lack of experience usually shows up on cutoff plays (“where do I stand?!”) or in-between plays (“do I try to get this grounder or let the second baseman take it?!”). There’s nothing LeMahieu and the Yankees can do about that other than keep working at it. The basic fundamentals, like catching and throwing the ball, should be a non-issue. It’s the other stuff that’s tricky.

Although LeMahieu is going to move around, the Yankees do not see him as a bench player. He’s going to play and play a lot. Aaron Boone recently told Joel Sherman he expects LeMahieu to “start 145 games,” which is a full-time workload. That means the plan is for LeMahieu to be in the starting lineup pretty much every single day, albeit at a different position while Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Andujar, and Luke Voit (or Greg Bird, I suppose) rotate in at DH or get a day on the bench.

“Start with a place where we are totally healthy and things are going according to plan. You still envision Tulo off a couple of days a week, which means Gleyber moves over on those days,” Boone said to George King. “There is a day a week or every ten days Gleyber gets a day off. A day off or two for Andujar and the day (he DHs). It’s really not that hard to envision (LeMahieu) playing five out of six even with everyone healthy and doing what they are supposed to be doing.”

The Yankees are seemingly dead set on Tulowitzki being their starting shortstop while Didi Gregorius rehabs from Tommy John surgery, though Boone cautioned Tulowitzki will sit regularly early in the season. They don’t want to overload him after all those injuries and missing last season. That will open up playing time for LeMahieu. As will Andujar sitting when CC Sabathia starts. Look at Sabathia’s spray heat map the last three years:

Sabathia faced more than four times as many righties as lefties the last three seasons, and because he pitches those righties inside with the cutter, he gets a ton of weakly hit ground balls to the left side of the infield. He needs a good defensive third baseman and Andujar is not that. Neil Walker was Sabathia’s personal third baseman in the second half last year and it’s safe to assume LeMahieu will be his personal third baseman this year.

Two off-days for Tulowitzki plus one day as Sabathia’s personal third baseman already equals three starts per week for LeMahieu. Figure either Torres or Voit is going to sit once a week, so that’s a fourth start. And let’s not forget about left field either. Brett Gardner should not start against southpaws. Gardner on the bench, Giancarlo Stanton in left field, Andujar at DH, and LeMahieu at third should be the standard alignment against lefties.

For the sake of laying it all out, here are possible defensive alignments each time through the rotation:

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 (CC)
1B Voit Voit LeMahieu Voit Voit
2B Torres LeMahieu Torres LeMahieu Torres
SS Tulowitzki Torres Tulowitzki Torres Tulowitzki
3B Andujar Andujar Andujar Andujar LeMahieu
LF Gardner Gardner Stanton Gardner Stanton
DH Stanton Stanton Voit Stanton Andujar
Bench LeMahieu Tulowitzki Gardner Tulowitzki Gardner

Of course, it never works out quite that neatly, but I think you catch my drift. Tulowitzki and Gardner, the two guys in their mid-30s who shouldn’t play every single day, get two off-days each time through the rotation. LeMahieu sits the other day, and Day 3 in the scenario above is essentially a flex day. It could be Voit at DH, or Torres, or Andujar, or even Tulowitzki or LeMahieu.

Again, it never ever works out quite that neatly because someone is red hot and you want to keep him in the lineup, or someone is nursing an injury, or the Yankees see four lefty starters in a row, things like that. Generally speaking, a plan where LeMahieu plays four out of every five games while Tulowitzki and Gardner each play three times seems plausible. That’s a good framework and the Yankees will adjust as necessary.

LeMahieu will go from playing second base every day to playing second base twice every five days, plus first base and third base once each. It’ll take an adjustment, for sure. It’s up to Boone and the Yankees to keep LeMahieu (and everyone else) updated on the plan — there are few things players hate more than coming to the park and not knowing if or where they’re playing — and LeMahieu to stay ready. He’s a pro. He’ll be ready.

The Yankees tried to turn Neil Walker, a career second baseman, into a utility guy who moved around last season, and it didn’t work out all that well. He struggled with the reduced playing time. Boone and the Yankees say they will move LeMahieu around like they did Walker, except they’re going to play him more often, which will hopefully keep his bat sharp. They didn’t sign him to be a part-timer. He’ll be in the lineup close to every day.

“The days are there (to play LeMahieu) even if we have perfect health,” Boone said to Randy Miller. “And if we do, it allows us to keep guys healthier over the long haul because they are getting that one day a week where they’re down. It never quite works out that way.”

Reports: Harper agrees to 13-year, $330M deal with Phillies

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(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

You can stop hoping the Yankees will swoop in to sign Bryce Harper like they did Mark Teixeira back in the day now. According to multiple reports, Harper has agreed to a massive 13-year, $330M contract with the Phillies. It is the largest contract in baseball history, besting Giancarlo Stanton’s deal by $5M in total guarantee.

Harper’s new contract reportedly does not include any opt-outs, which is a bit surprising. Here are the largest contracts in baseball history:

  1. Bryce Harper, Phillies: 13 years, $330M
  2. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325M
  3. Manny Machado, Padres: 10 years, $300M
  4. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275M
  5. Nolan Arenado, Rockies: 8 years, $260M

The 13-year contract covers Harper’s age 26-38 seasons and comes with a very affordable $25.38M average annual value (and thus luxury tax hit). I thought maybe Harper and Scott Boras would try to top the average annual value record (Zack Greinke at $34.42M), but I guess not. The Dodgers and Giants were said to be in the mix on short-term deals, which was never all that realistic.

The Yankees were never seriously connected to Harper this offseason. They were tied to Machado all throughout the winter, though they were never all the way in. With Harper, they weren’t involved at all even though he’s a 26-year-old superstar with lefty power and patience, two traits that define the Yankees historically. Instead, the Yankees passed on the big fish to spread out the money this winter.

I don’t know about you, but I can not believe the Yankees passed on two elite prime-aged talents like Harper and Machado after developing a cheap homegrown core and resetting their luxury tax rate last year. It’s one thing to get outbid or have the player choose another team, but not even making a serious attempt to sign either of them? Infuriating. What a scam.

Two first basemen trending in opposite directions [2019 Season Preview]

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Bird. (Presswire)

First base has been a position of strength for the Yankees for almost as long as I can recall. I was a little too young to remember Don Mattingly, but I essentially have seen the team go from Tino Martinez to Jason Giambi to Mark Teixeira without many issues. Like many others, I thought Greg Bird was next in line after a stellar debut in 2015, but that’s now a distant memory. He has quite a bit of ground to make up on Luke Voit, who practically appeared out of thin air last summer and dominated.

Voit could become the actual long-term successor to Teixeira, even though there were a few seasons between the two’s careers in pinstripes. That’s not to say that all hope is lost for Bird, despite a lack of hitting and a litany of injuries in recent years. His career is still young, but Voit may have Wally Pipped him. There is technically an open competition for the position in camp, but Voit certainly has a leg up.

Can they coexist?

Even though Bird and Voit make for a natural platoon based on their handedness, Aaron Boone doesn’t envision that this season. Both players have options and can be sent to Triple-A, so the loser of the first base competition this spring could be destined for Scranton. Of course, it’s Voit’s job to lose, and understandably so. He killed it last summer after the trade while Bird floundered. The front office has made it clear that they’ve liked Voit for a while, too.

If a platoon isn’t in play, there’s only one other way the two could be on the same big league roster. One could play first while the other could be the designated hitter. Doing that would require Giancarlo Stanton to play left field, meaning that Brett Gardner would ride the bench. This would essentially make Gardner a full-time bench player, because such an alignment would likely be against right-handed pitchers. Gardner is really bad against southpaws now, so it’s not like he’d make sense to play against lefties when Bird sits.

It might not be bad for Gardner to assume the fourth outfielder role full-time, but that would indeed require Bird to re-emerge (and Voit to maintain his output). Bird’s already off to a good start this spring, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet. In all likelihood, one of the two first basemen will be in Triple-A come opening day. My money is on Bird heading there.

Bird’s last gasp?

Not much has gone in Bird’s favor since the 2015 season ended. Shoulder surgery cost him his 2016 campaign. The excitement for his return in 2017 was crushed after he suffered an ankle injury in an exhibition game, which followed him throughout the year and hindered his performance. At least we have that playoff homer against Andrew Miller. 2018 was more of the same with injuries and poor performance. Bird is still 26, but it’s been a while since he’s been consistently good.

As mentioned, Bird still has options so he can (and likely will) be sent to the minors to the start the year. The Yankees don’t necessarily have to make a decision on his future with the organization yet, though it would behoove Bird to stay on the field and hit. Not just for his chances to stick with the Yankees, but for other opportunities around the league. If Voit is who he appears to be, Bird won’t get the job back, but he could impress another team enough to trade for him.

The Yankees can afford to be patient with Bird, too. He has multiple options and can’t refuse a minor league assignment as he is short of five years of service. Somehow, even though it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s accumulated just over three years of major league time. If the team wants to hang on to him this season and beyond, they can. Some extended time in the minors this season might be good for Bird to regain confidence anyway.

What if Bird rakes in the Grapefruit League? He’s already off to a fast start. Even if that continues throughout the next month or so, it’ll take other circumstances to get him on the roster. As noted before, alignment would be a challenge with both him and Voit in the lineup, especially if a platoon isn’t an option. In other words, it’s going to take an injury for him to start the season in the Bronx. Even if Voit struggles in camp, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees making a judgement on Voit over a poor spring.

Voit might be really, really good

I don’t think anyone is expecting Voit to rake like he did after the trade deadline last summer (187 wRC+), but he also doesn’t appear to be some flash in the pan. The front office coveted Voit long before the deal. His minor league performance was always great and his underlying quality of contact metrics were stellar. All he really needed was a chance to capitalize on. The Yankees gave him just that.

Statcast absolutely adores Voit, and I think it’s safe to say that similar data is what attracted the Yankees to him. He was all over the batted ball leaderboards last season. How about some visual proof? I know we’re not supposed to read into anything that happens in spring training, but that home run against the Rays on Sunday was pretty awesome.

Voit pummeled that high-90s fastball from Ryan Stanek. Good to see that his Sammy Sosa hop is in mid-season form, by the way.

I’ll dive into the projections in a minute, but I should note that they don’t see him as a fluke. All systems have him as a comfortably above average hitter. One forecast in particular believes he’s one of baseball’s best hitters. It sure sounds like the Yankees knew what they were doing when they targeted him last summer.

Now, there’s always a chance that the league figures out Voit. Maybe he really is your classic Quad-A slugger that happened to run into a hot streak at the big league level. Guys who are in their late twenties with limited major league exposure don’t often become significant contributors. If he flames out over the next few months, the Yankees better hope that Bird capable. Otherwise, hello full-time first baseman DJ LeMahieu.

Projections

Voit

  • PECOTA: .280/.350/.506 (127 DRC+), 21 home runs, 2.6 WARP in 460 plate appearances
  • ZiPS: .264/.344/.474 (116 OPS+), 22 home runs, 1.9 WAR in 483 plate appearances
  • Steamer: .262/.336/.458 (115 wRC+), 19 home runs, 1.4 WAR in 449 plate appearances

Over at Baseball Prospectus, I mentioned that Voit was one of my favorite PECOTA projections for 2019. The system thinks he’s the 22nd best hitter in baseball! What a score for the front office if that’s truly the case. Even if he’s not that high up, the other projections are more than respectable. Getting this caliber of a hitter for Chasen Shreve and Giovanny Gallegos would be a remarkable heist. Even if he’s not as good as PECOTA indicates, I think we’d all be happy with the performance ZiPS and Steamer expect.

One cool thing about PECOTA are some of the player comps it spits out. 2015 Nate Freiman (DNP) and 2011 Steve Pearce (76 DRC+) are the top two guys, which isn’t exciting. However, the player who caught my eye was 2018 Jesus Aguilar. He’s Voit’s sixth-best comp, but very close to those ahead of him. Aguilar was pretty awesome last season as a 28 year-old right-handed and stocky first baseman in his first full season (135 DRC+). That description sound familiar? I wouldn’t mind Voit doing that in his age 28 year, this one.

Bird

  • PECOTA: .234/.312/.421 (88 DRC+), 7 home runs, 0.0 WARP in 193 plate appearances
  • ZiPS: .224/.317/.444 (101 OPS+), 16 home runs, 0.6 WAR in 350 plate appearances
  • Steamer: .227/.315/.435 (102 wRC+), 12 home runs, 0.3 WAR in 210 plate appearances

Once again, PECOTA deviates from the other systems, this time in the opposite direction. It’s pessimistic one of the bunch. Not that ZiPS or Steamer are optimistic, of course. He wouldn’t be worthy of much playing time even if he met the other two projections.

Interestingly enough, even though PECOTA is down on Bird, his comps are better than Voit’s. The top one is 2006 Adam LaRoche (123 DRC+). His fifth, sixth, and seventh top comps are very good too: 2012 Mitch Moreland (111 DRC+), 2007 Justin Morneau (117 DRC+), 2008 Adrian Gonzalez (132 DRC+). Sign me up for any of those seasons. Still, it seems odd to get those as some of his top comps despite a poor projection. There are some less than stellar comps in there too (Mike Jacobs and Matt LaPorta), but the good ones outnumber the bad.

Final Thoughts

I’m pretty high on Voit and think he’s going to have no issue holding off Bird. To me, it’s pretty encouraging to see a few projection systems marry up with his Statcast metrics and the Yankees’ internal evaluations. There will be some understandable skepticism considering how few career major league opportunities he’s had, but all signs point to him as a good, perhaps great, hitter.

Meanwhile, I’ve lost quite a bit of hope in Bird. Even though he’s hitting well in a handful of spring games, I don’t want to get excited again. He really hasn’t done anything productive over an extended period since 2015, which was a long while ago. Plus, I don’t have much faith in him staying healthy. I hope I’m wrong.

Since the Yankees are giving out extensions, there’s no better time to lock up Gleyber Torres

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(Presswire)

The first two weeks of Spring Training have been busier than usual for the Yankees. Two weeks ago they signed ace Luis Severino to a four-year contract with a fifth year club option that buys out one free agent season. Then, earlier this week, they gave center fielder Aaron Hicks a seven-year contract. That deal covers six free agent years with an option for a seventh. Extension season is in full swing.

Following the Hicks extension Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees are discussing deals with several other core players without naming names — “We’ve been very vocal that we’ve engaged with a lot of players,” he said — though Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, and Aaron Judge are obvious extension candidates. Dellin and Didi are impending free agents and Judge is the face of the franchise.

Another extension candidate: Gleyber Torres. Torres is six years away from free agency, so there’s not that same level of urgency as there is with Betances and Didi. That said, Gleyber is really good, and the sooner the Yankees lock him up, the more long-term savings. Oddly enough, the extension market for middle infielders with less than one full year of service time is pretty well established. Look:

  • Scott Kingery, Phillies: Six years, $24M with two club options.
  • Paul DeJong, Cardinals: Six years, $26M with two club options.
  • Tim Anderson, White Sox: Six years, $25M with two club options.

All three contracts were signed within the last two years. Kingery signed his extension before he even made his MLB debut. DeJong and Anderson signed their extensions following their partial rookie years. DeJong was called up in late-May and Anderson in early-June. The Yankee brought Torres up in late-April. Their rookie season performances are quite similar:

Age AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR WAR Service Time at Deal
Anderson 23 .283/.306/.432 98 9 +2.7 115 days
DeJong 23 .285/.325/.532 122 25 +2.7 127 days
Torres 21 .271/.340/.480 120 24 +2.9 162 days

Want to sign your standout middle infielder with less than one full year of service time long-term? You have to buy out his six years of team control for $25M or so, and you get two club options. That is the established rate. There are two key differences between Torres and the other guys though. One, Gleyber has an All-Star Game selection to his credit, which increases his earning potential. He and his agent won’t forget about that.

And two, Torres will undoubtedly qualify as a Super Two, meaning he’d go through arbitration four times instead of the usual three. That equals more money. There is no set Super Two date each year but the cutoff usually falls around two years and 125 days or so of service time. DeJong was right on the bubble and Anderson likely would’ve been just short. Torres will be well over whatever the cutoff is in two years. That’s another consideration.

Shockingly few infielders went through arbitration as a Super Two in recent years. I mean go year-to-year and not sign a long-term extension or get non-tendered. Few guys went straight through. Here’s how much those recent Super Two infielders* banked during their years of team control:

  • Josh Donaldson: $57.4M
  • Didi Gregorius: $29.1M
  • Neil Walker: $28.5M
  • Luis Valbuena: $14.3M

* I’m excluding Anthony Rendon ($49.4M) because he signed a Major League contract out of the draft back when that was still allowed, which meant his early career salaries were higher than usual, thus inflating his arbitration numbers.

There are three distinct tiers. Donaldson is the everything goes right scenario. Perennial All-Star, an MVP award with several other high finishes in the voting, the works. Gregorius and Walker are the above-average but not truly elite middle tier. Valbuena’s the useful role player who is good enough to hang around and not get non-tendered. Guys who are less productive than Valbuena usually don’t stick around through four years of arbitration.

Torres was a deserving All-Star as a 21-year-old rookie last year — he wasn’t voted in by the fans, he was voted in on the players’ ballot — and he was a very highly regarded prospect. Things don’t always work out as hoped, but, watching Torres play last year, it sure looked like he was only scratching the surface. The potential for greatness is real, and even if he’s merely very good rather than great, Walker and Gregorius show an extension would be worth it.

For argument’s sake, let’s say the Yankees give Torres six years and $28M guaranteed. That’s a tad more than DeJong and Anderson because Gleyber has that All-Star Game selection and will be a no doubt Super Two. Six years and $28M equals a $4.67M luxury tax hit. Let’s compare that luxury tax hit to Sir Didi’s and Walker’s year-to-year salaries (hypothetical luxury tax savings in parenthesis):

Torres Gregorius Walker
Pre-Arb $4.67M $0.5065M (-$4.1635M) $0.437M (-$4.223M)
Pre-Arb $4.67M $0.5539M (-$4.1161M) $0.5M (-$4.177M)
Arb1 $4.67M $2.425M (-$2.245M) $3.3M (-$1.37M)
Arb2 $4.67M $5.1M (+$0.43M) $5.75M (+$1.08M)
Arb3 $4.67M $8.25M (+$3.58M) $8M (+$3.33M)
Arb4 $4.67M $11.75M (+$7.08M) $10.55M (+$5.88M)

As far as the luxury tax payroll is concerned, our hypothetical Gleyber extension would put the Yankees in the red the next three years. His luxury tax hit during his two upcoming pre-arbitration years would be much higher than it normally would. Once you get to year four though, the Yankees would start saving money, and by the fifth year the luxury tax savings would be significant.

And remember, this is assuming Torres follows the Gregorius/Walker career path and becomes a very good player but doesn’t really break out as a star. Walker’s first arbitration year was 2013 and Didi’s was 2016. Gleyber’s first arbitration year will be 2021. Even with teams clamping down on spending, that’s quite a bit of inflation to consider. Six years and $28M puts Torres right at what Gregorius and Walker made during their team control years. Factor in inflation and the savings are even greater.

The other thing to remember is these extensions come with option years. DeJong, Anderson, and Kingery all agreed to two clubs options and those potentially have huge value. DeJong’s two options are worth $12.5M and $15M. Anderson’s are worth $12.5M and $14M. That sounds like a lot in this free agent climate, but remember, Gleyber’s free agency is six years away, so the market can (and will) change. Also, Torres is due to become a free agent at 27. He free agent payday could be significant.

Signing Torres now seems like an obvious move for the Yankees. The increased upfront luxury tax hit stinks, but, if Gleyber becomes the player the Yankees believe he can become, the potential savings down the line are enormous. Even if Torres doesn’t become that bona fide star and is merely very good, there’s a good chance the Yankees will come out ahead financially, or at least break even. And, if he busts, carrying the $4.67M luxury tax hit for a few years won’t bog down payroll.

Torres was a big bonus international signing ($1.7M), so maybe he’s not all that desperate to sign now and secure that first huge payday. He might be willing to go year-to-year and try to get that Donaldson money. Still, the Yankees should put the DeJong and Anderson contract in front of him and see what happens. Make him say no to 20-something-million, you know? As long as they’re willing to stomach the short-term luxury tax increase, the Yankees stand to gain a lot down the line. And hey, getting that 20-something-million ain’t so bad for Gleyber either.

Feb. 27th Spring Training Notes: Farquhar, Holder, Frazier

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The Yankees dropped a rain-shortened six-inning game to the Tigers earlier today. Chance Adams and Domingo Acevedo both got their clocks cleaned. Adams faced six batters and retired one, and Acevedo faced seven batters and retired two. They combined to allow ten runs and ten baserunners in one inning. Ouch. Albert Abreu tossed a scoreless inning though, so that’s cool.

Greg Bird kept pace with Luke Voit with an opposite field three-run home run. “It’s like a righty hit it,” said Aaron Boone to Coley Harvey, referring to how quickly the ball left the yard. Bird and Voit are a combined 5-for-9 (.555) with a double and two homers this spring. Aaron Hicks stroked a double and Gleyber Torres had a single. That’s about all there was to see offensively. Here is the box score and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • J.A. Happ was scheduled to start tomorrow but apparently he will start Friday instead. Not sure what that’s about or who’s starting tomorrow in his place. Probably one of the minor leaguers or non-roster guys. Anyway, James Paxton will start Saturday’s game. [Randy Miller]
  • Danny Farquhar threw a simulated game today and is scheduled to make his Grapefruit League debut Saturday. “I saw my name on the board for Saturday and I was freaking out this morning when I saw it. I’m so excited,” he said. Alas, Saturday’s game will not be televised. [Mark Didtler]
  • Who’s impressed Boone so far during Grapefruit League play? Kyle Holder. “(He’s) been a guy that continues to grab our attention. He’s such a gifted defender, and he looks a little stronger this year and that bat continues to come along,” said the manager. [George King]
  • Clint Frazier has been working with hitting coach Marcus Thames to widen his batting stance. The intention is to help him see the ball better and let it travel a little deeper, and also get around better on inside fastballs. [Pete Caldera]

The Yankees will be back at it tomorrow afternoon at home against the Pirates. That game will not be televised. We won’t see the Yankees again until Sunday.

How recent history led the Yankees to avoid Bryce Harper and Manny Machado

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(Patrick Semansky/AP)

Like it or not, the Yankees spent modestly this winter.

While two big fish sat in free agency, the Bombers instead looked for lesser improvements. Still, the Yankees came away with arguably the best starter and reliever who changed teams this offseason while retaining three pitchers, Brett Gardner and adding two infielders.

For many fans and observers, that offseason wasn’t enough. The Yankees, after all, are the richest team in baseball and could have easily made room for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. You can just imagine what either hitter would look like next to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. The common complaint was that if you’re not going to spend on either Harper or Machado, why did the team get under the luxury tax?

However, when one looks back at the last time the Yankees spent big in free agency, there was a much more pressing need. Let’s take a look back at the 2013-14 offseason for a second.

The 2013 Yankees were as much of a disaster as an 85-win team can be, at least in New York. Injuries ran roughshod through the roster, claiming Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Michael Pineda. The big money starter, CC Sabathia, sported a 4.78 ERA and was well-below league-average.

To summarize how bad it got, look at the team’s Baseball Reference page. Chris Stewart, Jayson Nix, late-career Vernon Wells and Ichiro Suzuki to go with 36-year-old Lyle Overbay and Travis Hafner each played in more than half the Yankees’ games. Yikes.

The team was set to get worse in the offseason. Alex Rodriguez was suspended for all of the 2014 season, giving New York more spending flexibility but one fewer big bat. Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte were retiring and Robinson Cano, one of just two above-average regulars, left for the greener pastures (at least in terms of dollars) of Seattle. There was no Judge or Luis Severino coming through the Minors to save the day.

This was also right at the time of the Yankees’ first attempt to evade the luxury tax in what was known as Plan 189 around these parts. The Steinbrenners were faced with the choice of getting under the tax and abandoning a realistic playoff chase or spending their way to a competitive-looking roster. This was before Brian Cashman was able to convince ownership to sell off parts and said owners chose to remain competitive.

Thus, the team went hard, eschewing Cano and signing Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann early in free agency. With a clear need still present in the rotation, Cashman got sign-off to pursue Masahiro Tanaka and acquired the righty in January 2014.

It’s easy to say that this was short-sighted with the aging roster and Ellsbury’s onerous contract. However, while one can question the methods, the intent was clear.

Back to the present day, the roster has shed the ancient appearance for a youthful glee as the Yankees returned to prominence. That ultimately was a large part of the plan after the 2016 trade deadline, turning to a young, sustainable core.

However, this core arrived well ahead of schedule. Just think back to Spring Training 2017. Aarons Judge and Hicks had combined for -0.7 WAR the prior season while Severino failed in his first go-around as a starter. The team traded two of its most prolific hitters, Beltran and McCann, as “transition” hung in the air as the buzzword. In other words, expect a worse product in the short term.

From there, Hicks, Judge and Severino turned into All-Star caliber players while Stanton fell into the Yankees’ laps. The team has won 191 games over the last two years and made it within a game of the World Series. Not a championship, but certainly poised to reach that height.

Looking at it from ownership’s perspective, the team has the infield set for years behind Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius and Gleyber Torres. The outfield has Hicks, Judge and Stanton while Brett Gardner and Troy Tulowitzki serve as stopgaps for Gregorius and Clint Frazier. The Bombers are already on the cusp of the World Series.

So Yankees chose to leave very good alone instead of go for standout greatness as no team pushed their postseason spot. Likely, if Judge, Sevy and others don’t turn into stars right away and reach the ALCS in 2017 — if 2018 looks more like 2013 than 2017 — the front office views Harper or Machado (or both) as necessities rather than luxuries.

The media has occasionally pointed to Ellsbury’s contract as a reason the Yankees or other teams would be hesitant to give out big contracts, but that simply doesn’t apply to the Bombers. This is the team that traded for A-Rod and Stanton’s record deals while giving Rodriguez and Sabathia top-of-the-market contracts, all while giving long-term deals to Jeter, Teixeira and so on. They’ve stomached bad deals and they’ve thrived with great ones.

The team now turns to its in-house options as well as their fine additions with Paxton and Ottavino. The team relies heavily upon Didi’s recovery, avoiding regression from Andujar and a five-man rotation with plenty of injury risk. Still, the talent and promise in the Bronx is palpable even without Machado and Harper.

Whether they regret that comfortable feeling of having essentially reached the postseason in March will play out as it may, but it’s hard to deny that compared to 2013-14, or even 2008-09, there wasn’t the pressing need. Harper or Machado wouldn’t have guaranteed the Yankees would surpass Boston or Houston and ultimately, that opportunity cost spelled the difference between either player donning pinstripes and our2 current reality.

Dellin Betances and the pursuit of reliever history [2019 Season Preview]

by

(Presswire)

The 2018 season was a very important season for Dellin Betances. Certainly the most important of his big league career and maybe the most important of his professional career. Betances collapsed down the stretch late in 2017 as his control deteriorated. More than a few fans wanted him traded in the offseason. Dellin had to right the ship last year to keep his spot in the organization.

Right the ship he did. Betances was one of the best relievers in baseball last year, throwing 66.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA (2.47 FIP) with an excellent strikeout rate (42.3%) and a walk rate (9.6%) below his career average (11.0%). He reclaimed the eighth inning setup role and, one year after being so far out of the picture that he didn’t even warm up in the 2017 Wild Card Game (despite the Yankees needing 8.2 innings from their bullpen), he was the first man out of the bullpen in 2018 Wild Card Game.

Even after the Yankees bolstered their bullpen with Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino, Betances is firmly entrenched in Aaron Boone’s Circle of Trust™, and he will again be counted on to get big outs this season. The Yankees have a different feel when Good Dellin lurks in the bullpen, ready to handle high-leverage situations. Let’s preview his upcoming 2019 season.

Year two with new mechanics

Although he turns 31 next month and has been in the big leagues five years now, it’s amazing how little has changed with Betances’ stuff. His fastball still hums in the upper-90s and touches triple digits, and his two breaking balls — yes, he throws two different breaking balls — still buckle knees. Stuff wise, the Betances we saw last year was very similar to the Betances we saw back in 2014, when he first broke onto the scene.

Dellin is not the same pitcher as he was back then, however. Following his extreme control issues in 2017 — those weren’t command issues, those were basic strike-throwing issues — pitching coach Larry Rothschild and bullpen coach Mike Harkey helped Betances get back on track by simplifying his mechanics. Specifically, they shortened his leg left. Here is 2017 Betances on the left and 2018 Betances on the right.

Betances is a big dude (6-foot-8 and 265 lbs.) and he’s not the greatest athlete. Reducing the moving parts in his delivery worked wonders last year. It helped him locate and got him back to being that overwhelmingly dominant late-inning reliever. This was not an adjustment to compensate for reduced stuff. This was about Betances being more direct and over the plate, and it worked. The shortened leg kick will remain this year.

Given his history, there is always going to be some level of unpredictability with Betances. His bouts of extreme wildness date back to very early in his career, much further back than 2017, and even when he’s at his best, there are times he’ll come out of the bullpen and not know where the ball is going. You take the bad with the good with Dellin because the good is very good. Better than very good. It’s historically great.

Betances will of course continue with the shortened leg kick this year. This is one of those “don’t fix it until you’re sure it’s broken” situations. Baseball is a game of adjustments and Betances made the adjustment last year. If he has to make another adjustment this year, hopefully it will happen as quickly as it did last season. We’ve seen no loss of stuff at all. It’s amazing, really. With Dellin, it’s all about mechanics and being around the plate.

Going for a sixth straight 100+ strikeout season

Betances set two records last year. First, he struck out at least one batter in 44 straight appearances, the longest such streak for a reliever in American League history and the longest such streak for a reliever in a single-season in MLB history. (Aroldis Chapman and Corey Knebel had longer streaks across two seasons). Also, Betances became the first reliever in history with five consecutive 100-strikeout seasons.

Betances and Goose Gossage are the only relievers in history with five 100-strikeout seasons. (Gossage spread his across eight seasons from 1975-82.) This summer Betances can become the first reliever in history with six 100-strikeout seasons and he has a chance to do it in six consecutive seasons. Yes, all sorts of strikeout records are being broken nowadays, but that doesn’t make this any less impressive. It speaks to Dellin’s dominance and durability.

If Betances falls short of 100 strikeouts this season, my guess is it will because the Yankees scale back on his workload, not because he loses effectiveness. There are no indications Betances is about to stop missing bats. But, with such a deep bullpen, I wonder if the Yankees will look to keep him around 60 innings rather than 70 or so. Shaving ten innings off a reliever’s workload can be really beneficial come postseason time, though it would reduce his chances of striking out 100+ batters again. We’ll see. I hope Dellin sets the record. Would be fun.

“We are very deep and have guys who can strike out guys at a high level and give a lot of options to Boone to play with, and at the same time get our days off when we need them,” Betances said to George King recently. “We still have great guys pitching no matter who that is. We feed off each other and have a great year.”

Is an extension coming?

It sounds like it. The two sides are talking, if nothing else. Betances will be a free agent following the season and he’s ducked extension questions in recent days — “It’s a great team, a great group of guys. We have kind of grown up together. This is special and the years going forward. It’s a great group of guys and I love playing here,” he said to King when asked about a deal recently — which I guess isn’t surprising. Players usually don’t talk about contracts until they’re actually signed.

The free agent market is pretty crummy these days but relievers are still getting paid. The Yankees gave both Zack Britton ($39M) and Adam Ottavino ($27M) three-year deals. Joe Kelly ($25M) and Jeurys Familia ($30M) also received three-year deals. Andrew Miller ($25M) and David Robertson ($23M) both received two guaranteed years. You can drop these guys into three buckets:

  • Turns 34 soon with elite track record: Miller and Robertson (two years with high annual salary)
  • Early 30s with elite track record: Britton (three years with high annual salary)
  • Non-elite track record: Ottavino, Kelly, Familia (three years with lower annual salary)

I’m open to arguments that Familia is elite. For our purposes, we can drop him into that third bucket. Betances hits the sweet spot like Britton. He is nearly three full years younger than Miller and Robertson, so he can demand that third guaranteed year, and he also sports a better and longer track record than Ottavino and Kelly (and Familia), so he can also seek the big dollars.

With the caveat Craig Kimbrel could change the reliever salary scale (probably not), Betances right now seems like a good bet for three years and $12M or $13M per season. Maybe he’d give the Yankees a slight hometown discount to stay in his actual hometown, and also lock in guaranteed money at a time when free agents are being shunned, but three years and $36M to $39M seems reasonable to me.

The Yankees are in the extension giving mode right now — they’ve signed the same number of players to extensions this month (two) as they did from 2005-18, so yeah — and Betances seems to be a top priority. He’s an impending free agent, so there is some urgency to get a deal done soon, and he’s very good. The two sides are talking, and while I wouldn’t call an extension inevitable, it does seem like there’s some momentum toward a deal.

And, if the Yankees do not extend Betances, it doesn’t close the door on his return. The two sides could always revisit talks after the season. Maybe his free agent stock will go up, maybe it’ll go down. It seems any concerns about bad blood stemming from the Yankees renewing Dellin’s salary at the league minimum a few years ago and the acrimonious arbitration hearing were a waste of time. The two sides want to stay together.

* * *

A year ago at this time Betances was an unknown. Would the great version of Betances, the guy we saw from 2014 through the 2017 All-Star break, ever return? He did, and we saw him through the end of last postseason. There will undoubtedly be some hiccups along the way this season, but, on a per inning basis, Dellin is probably the Yankees’ best reliever. He’ll again be counted on to slam the door in the late innings of close games in 2019.