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Two quality starters available, but the Yanks must choose one

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It is becoming increasingly clear that the Yankees will make a big move in the next four days. Earlier in the month it might have appeared that the trade market was relatively bare and that there was no clear upgrade for the Yankees. Yet, as happens every year, the story has changed as we have approached the non-waiver trade deadline. The Yankees have a definite need in the rotation, and there are a couple of starters on the market who could help fill that.

Ubaldo Jimenez and Hiroki Kuroda could not be more different. One’s old, one’s young; one throws a mid-90s fastball, the other in the low 90s; one relies on ground balls, while the other is more the strikeout type; one is 36 and a free agent at year’s end, while the other is 27 and has two more years before reaching free agency; one will cost a bounty in prospects, while the other might not even agree to a trade. Yet both of them can help the Yankees rotation by slotting into the upper portion. In the coming days we could see one of them in pinstripes. Which one makes more sense?

Performance: Jimenez

If you look at only ERA, you might wonder how in the world Jimenez has out-performed Kuroda. Jimenez owns a 4.20 ERA, while Kuroda is at 3.11. Of course, that would suggest that ERA is completely under the pitcher’s control, which it is not. Jimenez has both a lower FIP and xFIP than Kuroda. He also has performed much better since struggling earlier in the year, producing a 3.03 ERA in his last 11 starts. Again, ERA isn’t everything, but he’s also struck out a batter per inning in that span, while walking just 17 (2.14 per nine).

Considering Jimenez got a late start in the spring, and missed two weeks in April, it’s understandable that he needed most of May to round back into form. But now he’s in that form, and he’s looking like an ace again. This isn’t a knock on Kuroda, whose performances have been very good since coming to the States in 2008. But in that span Jimenez ranks 10th in all of baseball with 18.8 WAR. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all relatively in line with Kuroda, but he has pitched 130 more innings.

Cost: Kuroda

It’s hard to make an argument that the Dodgers would get even one of the Yankees’ top five prospects in exchange for Kuroda. He’s a free agent after the season, and if he doesn’t retire he’ll either re-sign with the Dodgers or move back to Japan. In fact, it’s not even a sure thing that he’ll waive his no-trade clause: “My honest feeling is that I can’t fathom wearing another uniform than the Dodgers uniform right now,” he said yesterday. The point might be moot.

Jimenez, on the other hand, is said to cost three of the Yankees’ top prospects. If that seems like a steep price, well, it is. But remember, the payoff is a top-15 pitcher since 2008, so he’s not only good, but he has a track record. Is that worth eighteen years of total team control on three top prospects? It’s impossible to get a strong consensus on that, because of the polarizing prospect bias. Some think you always trade prospects for vets, while others would rather hang onto every prospect.

Yet here’s an interesting twist. CBS Sports’s Danny Knobler mentioned that the Rockies want three or four players from this list: Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Ivan Nova, or Phil Hughes. If they can get Hughes into that deal, maybe that changes things. Hughes, Betances, and Romine is a much easier pill to swallow than Nova, Betances, and Montero. Though when we hold this up to the reality test, and we see Hughes’s performances lately, it’s tough to imagine that the Rockies are interested.

Overall Help: Jimenez

Jimenez not only slots into the Yankees rotation right behind Sabathia this year, but he could remain there for at least the next two. That takes the pressure off the Yanks to make a splash in the free agent markets to come, which don’t appear particularly strong. Remember, many teams are locking up their young aces, and so we won’t see many of them reach free agency. That’s where the Yankees are strongest. They might have to make a sacrifice now in order to maintain a strong rotation.

If the Yankees get Kuroda, they might be tempted to spend $90 million on C.J. Wilson this winter. While that wouldn’t be the worst investment — I fully believe he’ll perform better than A.J. Burnett, though that’s not setting the bar particularly high — it’s another big contract for a player around age 30. It might cost some pieces from their farm system, but getting Jimenez in pinstripes means they can forget about the free agent class this winter and focus on developing from within. They’ll have three surefire bets for the rotation next year in Sabathia, Jimenez, and Burnett, with a few guys from the farm who could step into those final two spots.

Jimenez’s contract, too makes matters a bit easier. He’ll be a No. 2 getting paid like someone of lesser ability, and so can free up payroll for the Yankees to make other acquisitions. While the Yankees do play a different game than everyone else, I’m sure they’d like to play the value game every once in a while. After all, they need cost-controlled players so that they can continue spending $180 million on guys like Teixeira and $160 million on guys like Sabathia.

There is nothing wrong with the Yankees’ pursuit of Hiroki Kuroda, and if they ended up with him by Sunday I’d honestly be thrilled. He’ll provide an upgrade over their current fifth starter, Phil Hughes, and will stabilize the rotation heading into the playoffs. Jimenez, on the other hand, will be their No. 2 for years to come. He’ll cost considerably more, but he brings more benefits, both in the short and long term. It hurts to give up prospects, but in this case, considering the alternatives — and the alternative of doing nothing — Jimenez makes the most sense.

Trade market heating up with Jimenez, Danks, Nolasco talk

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With just five days until the non-waiver trade deadline, rumors are starting to fly with reckless abandon. The Yankees, by all indications, are looking into most available starting pitchers. There are ups and downs to each, of course, so let’s take a look at the three that have gotten some play in the past day.

Ubaldo Jimenez: In terms of talent, years of control, and contract, he’s the best pitcher on the market. It’s still unclear why the Rockies would consider trading him in the first place. The only reason is to start a quick rebuilding process, since their two biggest stars are under contract for many years to come. Joel Sherman reports that the Rockies have come down in price and are asking for three of Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Jesus Montero, and Ivan Nova. Perhaps if they take two and some other prospects it could work, but I cant’ see the Yanks trading three of their top five guys for him.

Ricky Nolasco: We’ve heard his name mentioned a few times in passing before, but nothing seriously. This morning SI’s Jon Heyman said that the Yanks tried for him, but that the Marlins aren’t ready to deal. Nolaso is under contract through 2013, for $9 million next year and $11.5 million in 2013. I don’t quite like this one, unless he comes super cheap. His results have never matched his potential — they’ve been pretty far off, in fact — and his strikeouts are way down this year.

John Danks: There’s nothing connecting him to the Yankees, but Ken Rosenthal reports that he’s on the market. I wrote up the case for Danks last week. He’s my favorite option on the market, all considered. He won’t cost as much as Jimenez and he’s better than Nolasco. The White Sox seem to be in wheeling and dealing mode right now; as I write this, they’re in the process of trading Edwin Jackson to the Blue Jays.

Report: Yankees have best chance to land Ubaldo

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Via Danny Knobler, the Yankees are the team with the best chance to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies before Sunday’s trade deadline. That doesn’t mean they’re close to a deal, just that they have the best chance at him. Honestly, this sounds like someone (likely Colorado) is trying to drive up interest (and the price) for the right-hander, but take from it what you will.

Trade Rumor Roundup: Ubaldo, Gio, Kuroda

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The deadline is coming up rather quickly, so let’s round up the latest from Yankeeland…

  • Unless a big-time ace caliber starter hits the market, the Yankees have made it clear to other teams that they will not trade Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Austin Romine. (Joel Sherman)
  • The Yankees would, however, consider dealing Montero for Ubaldo Jimenez, but the Rockies want multiple top prospects for their ace. New York is also concerned about his inconsistency, arm action, and the NL-AL transition. Colorado is out of it (11 games back now), but they have little reason to move the young and cost-controlled Jimenez, who’s one of the better pitchers in baseball. (Joel Sherman)
  • Executives from other clubs believe the Yanks will end up trading for a left-handed reliever at some point this week. We heard about their interest in Craig Breslow over the weekend. (Jon Paul Morosi)
  • The Yankees would “pay big” to get Gio Gonzalez from the Athletics, but Oakland is still refusing to talk about the lefty. Gio threw 111 pitches while giving up six runs in 4.2 IP against the Yanks yesterday, but he has a 3.57 FIP on the season. He’s young (26 in Sept.), left-handed, throws hard, misses bats, and is cheap (still in his pre-arbitration years), but the walks and lack of success away from the Coliseum are scary. (Sherman).
  • The Yankees remain interested in Hiroki Kuroda but have not had any recent discussions with the Dodgers about his availability. The 36-year-old right-hander has a full no-trade clause (and wants compensation to waive it) and Rosenthal says he’s keeping his options open, but other reports indicate that he will not approve a trade to the east coast. Kuroda’s got a 3.76 FIP this season, which is actually his worst since coming to the U.S., but he’s pitched very well over the last two months and makes sense for New York. (Ken Rosenthal & Bob Klapisch)

The trade market that wasn’t

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It all keeps coming back to Cliff Lee. A year ago, the Yankees were on the precipice of acquiring Lee from the Mariners, a feat which would have given them one of the best rotations in baseball. They failed, and a short time later were bounced from the playoffs by a team led by Cliff Lee. Soon after, they saw Cliff Lee spurn the them for the Phillies in free agency. By my count, that’s three separate instances of Cliff Lee-induced pain. When Andy Pettitte retired a few months after Lee went to Philadelphia, Cashman pivoted. In a manner reminiscent of the Red Sox in 2009, the Yankees decided to build the rotation on the cheap, allowing Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon and Ivan Nova to battle it out for the two remaining rotation slots (the other three being occupied by Sabathia, Burnett and Hughes). Once Hughes went down with an injury, Colon took his spot and performed admirably. Garcia has been fantastic too. Yet all along it’s seemed as if plan for the Yankees’ rotation was to run with these guys until a better option arose on the trade market. Freddy Garcia’s nice and all, but shouldn’t the Yankees go into battle in October with a serious complement to Sabathia? Yet here we stand a mere week or so away from the trade deadline and there seems to be no complement available? Where are the pitchers? Where are the targets? Where are the potential upgrades?

A few big names have arisen, to be sure. Ubaldo Jimenez was the target last week, but it doesn’t seem that Colorado is serious about trading him. Some have suggested that they were simply recognizing that the market was very weak and seeing if some team (like the Yankees) would be willing to panic and overpay for their lanky and affordable ace. In the absence of that a deal seems unlikely. James Shields has also been rumored to be available, but not to the Yankees. If Tampa decides to move the putative ace it won’t likely be an intra-divisional move. Hiroki Kuroda would be a potential option, one for whom I’ve long advocated, but his no-trade clause puts him in the driver’s seat and means that he’ll determine whether he gets traded and to where he gets traded. John Danks would be a nice upgrade, but there’s no indication that the White Sox are looking to move a starter and the teams don’t even match up particularly well for a trade anyway. Who’s left, Jason Marquis?

A year ago the Yankees came close to having a very good rotation and no Jesus Montero when they offered Seattle Montero for Lee. That deal fell through. A few months later, they came close to having a very good rotation and Jesus Montero when they tried to get Cliff Lee for nothing more than money. That deal fell through. The plus side is that the Yankees still have Montero, of course. Whether they really want him is another question. They don’t seem to have any interest in calling him up any time soon, and Cashman has gone out of his way to make it clear that Montero is available in trades. Yet there is no Cliff Lee on the market this year, no pitcher for whom Montero would be a suitable return. Right now the effort to swap Montero for a pitcher looks a day late and a buck short.

There is serious downside risk in relying on the trade market. Sometimes the targets don’t materialize and other times your assets don’t matchup with the best available targets. This shouldn’t be interpreted as a criticism of Cashman. No one that I’m aware of predicted that the Yankees would whiff on Lee twice, lose Pettitte to retirement, and then find themselves unable to upgrade the rotation via the trade market at all. It sounds like a worst-case scenario dreamt up on a Red Sox message board. Yet, as of July 23rd that’s exactly what’s happened. The best pitcher truly on the market seems to be Kuroda, a pitcher with a no-trade clause and a disinclination to leave Los Angeles.  It’s not the situation the Yankees hoped to be in at this point.

The old saying is that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. You can always hope that better opportunities arise later, but your risk goes up the further away you are from the acquisition target. This entire market could change very quickly, and that’s what makes the trade deadline so exciting. Yet, as of today it looks like the Yankees are dancing alone. The most realistic option at this point seems very unlikely, but I suppose there’s no harm in continuing to beat the drum once more, until the deadline passes. Help us, Hiroki. You’re our only hope!

The steep, but reasonable, price of Ubaldo Jimenez

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It appears that the Yankees’ Plan C is continuing to evolve as expected. After the Phillies signed Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte retired, they were stuck in a holding pattern. With nothing of note immediately available on the trade market, the only reasonable plan was to fill the rotation with stopgaps and hope that someone unexpected hit the trade market around deadline time. At the time I thought that might be Chris Carpenter, but it turned out to be someone better. For the past week-plus we’ve heard non-stop talk about Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez, whom no one thought would become available this year. While the rumors started with interest from the Reds, the focus has shifted to the Yankees.

In pure player terms, Jimenez is exactly what the Yankees need right now. The pitching staff did a phenomenal job in the first half, but there are concerns going forward. While Colon’s and Garcia’s previous two starts aren’t necessarily a portend for the future, it’s certainly a possibility that their luck has run out. That would not only leave the Yankees searching for pitching, but top end pitching. Jimenez has been just that in the past two-plus seasons, with a 3.35 ERA and 3.27 FIP in 550 innings since 2009. Even more impressively, he has a 2.94 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 291 innings away from the hitter-friendly Coors Field.

In Jimenez the Yankees would get their No. 1a to Sabathia’s No. 1, and they’d have him at a steep discount through 2013 (he’ll surely void his 2014 option, as is his right if he’s traded). Given his talent and contract, the Yankees would have to part with a significant package of prospects to entice the Rockies. As Mike said in the obligatory Ubaldo post, think the original Dan Haren trade, which sent a legion of prospects to the A’s. We got a preview of a possible package over the weekend, when SI’s Jon Heyman noted the Rockies’ asking price: Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Ivan Nova. That’s steep for sure, but it’s really just a starting point. They’re in the driver’s seat, so they might as well ask for the moon. The Yankees, Heyman further notes, will not part with any of those three pitchers along with Montero in a trade. Folks, we have what appear to be real, live negotiations.

(Unless, of course, you believe Buster Olney, who says that the two sides haven’t exchanged names. But, given their track records from this past winter, I’ll actually trust Heyman on this one. Plus, having names in place makes for better discussion.)

Once both sides step back from their original stances, the progression is logical. The Yankees will remove one of the pitchers from the deal, most likely Banuelos, leaving the package at Montero, Betances, Nova, and presumably another prospect, likely someone in the No. 8 to 20 range on the Yanks list. That’s a deal I would green light. There are no guarantees in baseball, and that goes doubly for guys who have yet to play in the majors. Both Montero and Betances have major upside and could contribute to future Yankees teams. But they both have enough flaws to leave the Yankees concerned. Cashing them in for a proven No. 1 or 2 pitcher who is right in the prime of his career provides the difficult balance between winning now and winning in the future.

Of course, it’s unlikely that the matter unfolds that smoothly. Two obstacles could stand in the way from the Yankees perspective. First is the matter of Banuelos. He’s the top pitching prospect in the Yankees organization, and this morning Heyman dropped an interesting item: the Rockies want a chip better than Montero as the centerpiece in any trade. That would seem to indicate Banuelos (though it could mean Betances, since Betances has a slightly higher ceiling). The trade does change if the Rockies demand Banuelos in Betances’s stead. He’s a lefty and a good bet to be in the rotation sometime in 2012, so it’s easy to see why the Yankees would be reluctant to include him.

The second obstacle is Ivan Nova. He’s the Yankees No. 6 starter right now, and their only real backup plan who has major league experience. Trading him would make Adam Warren the best depth option, since they’re apparently set on leaving Hector Noesi in the bullpen. True, acquiring Jimenez would give them a rotation of Sabathia-Jimenez-Hughes-Burnett-Colon/Garcia, but that fifth spot will still be important during the stretch run — more important still, because Burnett is pitching more like a No. 5, and Hughes still has plenty to prove. I still think the Yankees should go ahead, but I would understand their reluctance to remove MLB-tested depth options.

Chances are nothing happens on this front. The Rockies shouldn’t be overly motivated to move Jimenez, given his team-friendly contract and ace-like pitching. The prospective Yankees’ package of a front-line pitching prospect, a power hitting prospect, and a major league ready pitcher might be enticing, but I’m not sure it’s far enough over the top for the Rockies to take. Anything more than Montero-Betances-Nova plus a lesser prospect would have to give the Yankees pause. While Jimenez would help, they simply can’t empty the farm for him. With all of these moving parts, it’s likely the Yankees will have to turn elsewhere for pitching help. But if they can strike a deal in which they retain Banuelos, I think it would behoove them, both for this year and the future, to pull the trigger. It’s not often that a pitcher of Jimenez’s caliber becomes available. Considering the dearth of free agent pitching in the coming years, and the trend of signing young pitchers to long-term contracts, this is a move the Yankee should make.

Heyman: Yanks, Rox have had multiple discussions about Ubaldo Jimenez

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Via Jon Heyman, the Yankees and Rockies have had multiple conversations about Ubaldo Jimenez, but they have not yet gotten around to exchanging trade offers. Colorado isn’t sure they want to deal their ace yet, and in fact GM Dan O’Dowd told Jerry Crasnick: “We will listen to anything, but the reality is that [a trade] is not very likely to take place.” That basically means “blow me away,” because the Rockies aren’t exactly under any kind of pressure to move Jimenez. He’s not going to be a free agent after the season and he’s not old.

Anyway, Heyman says New York is willing to part with Jesus Montero, but Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Ivan Nova have been deemed untouchable. That’s probably just a negotiating ploy though, those are the kinds of guys you concede later (if need be) rather than offer up front. The Rockies have been scouting the Yankees’ farm system of late, so there’s that. Of course this would be much more than a Ubaldo-for-Montero swap, a three- or four-for-one is likely.

Heyman also notes that while the Yankees are focusing on Ubaldo, they also have interest in Hiroki Kuroda but not much in Wandy Rodriguez. They don’t like the $30M or so left on his contract, which is something I mentioned in last week’s podcast. I liked Wandy better as a rental than a guy you’d be stuck with though 2013. We’ve written up trade candidate posts for all three, so everything you need to know about them is here: Ubaldo, Kuroda, Wandy.

Update: Heyman says the Rockies have named their price for Ubaldo: Montero, Betances, Banuelos, and Nova. They also want tickets to the Metallica/Slayer/Megadeth/Anthrax concert in September, suites on road trips, discounts from W.B. Mason, proceeds from the DJ3K merchandise, and all the bacon and eggs the Yankees have. Seriously though, that’s just a starting point for negotiations. They’d be stupid not to ask for that.