River Avenue Blues

Andy Pettitte is an all-time great Yankee but he is not a Hall of Famer, and there’s nothing wrong with that

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(Al Bello/Getty)

In four weeks and five days MLB and the BBWAA will reveal the 2019 National Baseball Hall of Fame class. Mariano Rivera is a lock for induction. Edgar Martinez seems like a good bet for induction in his tenth and final year on the ballot. Rivera and Martinez going in the same year is kinda funny seeing how Edgar is pretty much the only hitter who solved Rivera (.579/.652/1.053 in 23 plate appearances!).

Among the many players on the ballot who will not receive enough votes for induction into the Hall of Fame next year is Andy Pettitte. As of this writing Ryan Thibodaux’s ballot tracker says Pettitte has appeared on only 11.3% of submitted ballots — that is eight votes on 70 public ballots — well below the 75% needed for induction. Pettitte should clear the 5% needed to remain on the ballot another year. Induction won’t happen in 2019 though.

And that’s fine. Pettitte is, clearly, on the very short list of all-time great Yankees pitchers. He is the franchise leader in strikeouts (2,020) and tied with Whitey Ford for the franchise lead in starts (438). Pettitte is top three in pitching WAR (+51.4), wins (219), innings (2,796.1), and a bunch of other things. And he was a key component of five World Series championship teams. He didn’t just come along for the ride and win a ring as a bystander.

The Yankees retired No. 46 for Pettitte three years ago and deservedly so. The Hall of Fame standard is much higher than the “the Yankees should retire his number” standard though, and, to me, Pettitte doesn’t meet that Hall of Fame standard. I can sum this up in three points.

1. Pettitte had the longevity but not the peak. Let’s do the ol’ blind comparison test, shall we? Mystery Pitcher here is a fellow lefty who pitched in the same era as Pettitte.

G W-L IP ERA ERA+ K% BB% bWAR fWAR
Pettitte 531 256-153 (.626) 3,316 3.85 117 17.4% 7.3% 60.7 68.9
Mystery Pitcher 518 214-160 (.569) 3,283.1 3.81 117 13.6% 5.4% 60.3 51.9

Give up? Mystery Pitcher is Mark Buehrle. Buehrle was really good! Had he not spent most of his career on some crummy White Sox teams, he’d have more wins and more postseason appearances to his credit, but that’s not really his fault. He did his part. His teammates didn’t. Does anyone think Buehrle is a Hall of Famer? Nah. A Hall of Very Good pitcher through and through, and gosh, it sure is tough to tell him apart from Pettitte, statistically.

For all intents and purposes, Pettitte was a consistently above-average pitcher for a very long time but he was never top of the league and on the short list of the game’s best. Seventeen times in 18 big league seasons Pettitte posted at least a 100 ERA+. Only six times in those 18 seasons did he best a 112 ERA+, however, and in three of those six seasons he made no more than 22 starts. Andy’s career is one of longevity, not top of the game dominance, and you typically need both to land in Cooperstown.

2. His postseason resume doesn’t boost his candidacy much. Five World Series rings is crazy impressive, and Pettitte is the all-time leader in postseason wins (19 — leads by four) and innings (276.2 — leads by 58.1), but his overall postseason body of work was more really good than great. He has a career 3.81 ERA in October, which more or less matches his regular season 3.85 ERA. Pettitte’s had some postseason gems (like this one and this one) but also some postseason stinkers (like this one and this one).

There is definitely something to be said for just how much Pettitte pitched in the postseason. The addition of the LDS round in 1995 and the fact the Yankees were so good for so long allowed Andy to rack up those postseason innings and he did answer the bell. I mean, a 3.81 ERA in 276.2 postseason innings is pretty bonkers. That’s more than an extra season’s worth of innings in his career. So perhaps knocking him for being merely very good and not truly great in October is wrong. It just seems to me there’s not enough October excellence to push Pettitte into Cooperstown.

3. It doesn’t matter that he’s better than someone who’s already in. With the Hall of Fame, it’s very easy to fall into the “well if this guy is in then that guy should be in” trap, and, with Pettitte (and others), the Jack Morris comparisons are inevitable. Pettitte compares very favorably to Morris statistically — he has him beat handily in both versions of WAR (60.7/68.9 to 44.0/55.8) despite throwing roughly 500 fewer innings — so, if Morris is in, Pettitte belongs to be in too, right?

Well, no. That’s the wrong way to look at this. For starters, Morris maxed out his 15 years on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot and was not voted into Cooperstown. The Modern Era committee had to vote him in last year. Yeah, he passed, but only because the teacher gave him an extra credit assignment. Secondly, Morris has the highest ERA (3.90) and third lowest ERA+ (105) among full-time pitchers in the Hall of Fame. A case can be made he’s the least accomplished pitcher in Hall of Fame. Morris was great! But this shouldn’t be the standard for induction.

When that’s the sort of comparison that has to be made to get Pettitte into Cooperstown — Andy would have the second highest ERA among Hall of Famers should he get voted in — well, it’s a losing argument. The voters would be doing a disservice to fans and the Hall of Fame by lowering the standards for induction based on a handful of players who probably shouldn’t be in but are in. Morris is one of them. Pettitte would be as well.

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Personally, I don’t get too upset about performance-enhancing drugs, but many voters do, and Pettitte is an admitted human growth hormone user. There is definitely selective outrage with PEDs — generally speaking, we only get outraged when the players we don’t like use them — but some Hall of Fame voters undoubtedly will hold it against Pettitte when the time comes to submit their ballot.

In Pettitte’s case, this wouldn’t be PEDs keeping a surefire Hall of Famer like Roger Clemens or Barry Bonds out of the Cooperstown. Pettitte is more of a borderline candidate. The current (small sample) voting totals make it clear the voting body doesn’t consider him a strong candidate. Even without the PED stuff — lots of people seem willing to gloss over that with Andy anyway — he wouldn’t be a lock for induction. The performance doesn’t make an overwhelming case for Cooperstown.

There’s nothing wrong with being an all-time great Yankee and something short of a Hall of Famer. It doesn’t take away from what Pettitte accomplished and it certainly doesn’t change the way I feel about him or how I felt watching him pitch. Those memories aren’t tarnished. Maybe Pettitte will pull a Morris and get voted into Cooperstown somewhere down the line. If he does, cool. If not, I’ll live. He’s still the greatest Yankees starter I’ve ever seen and a huge part of my formative years as a baseball fan.

Looking for under-the-radar relief pitchers the Yankees could target this offseason

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Maton. (Presswire)

With the rotation now in order, the Yankees have shifted their focus to the bullpen. The bullpen and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The Yankees say they want two relievers and that makes sense given the current roster. There are four open bullpen spots at the moment, and although the Yankees have no shortage of in-house candidates for those spots, it’s obvious an upgrade is in order.

It has become clear in recent years the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They prefer relievers who miss bats, first and foremost. New York’s bullpen struck out 30.2% of the batters they faced in 2018. That’s a single season record. They broke the record held by … the 2017 Yankees (29.1%). Yankees’ relievers generated a 13.1% swing-and-miss rate this past season, third highest in baseball behind the Astros (14.5%) and Dodgers (14.1%).

The Yankees are also velocity and spin rate enthusiasts. As a team in 2018 they had the highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph), the second highest average fastball spin rate (2,360 rpm), and the third highest average breaking ball spin rate (2,517 rpm). In fact, it seems the Yankees have prioritized spin rate over velocity the last few years. Nine pitchers threw at least 40 relief innings for the Yankees the last two seasons. Here are their average fastball velocity and spin rate numbers, with above-average rates in red:

2017-18 Innings FB velo FB spin BB spin
Chad Green 142.2 95.7 mph 2,451 rpm 2,206 rpm
Dellin Betances 126.1 98.0 mph 2,395 rpm 2,675 rpm
David Robertson 104.2 91.9 mph 2,555 rpm 2,706 rpm
Jonathan Holder 104.1 91.6 mph 2,347 rpm 2,657 rpm
Aroldis Chapman 101.2 99.4 mph 2,494 rpm 2,444 rpm
Adam Warren 87.1 92.3 mph 2,202 rpm 2,266 rpm
Chasen Shreve 83.1 92.3 mph 2,485 rpm 2,357 rpm
Tommy Kahnle 50 97.0 mph 2,268 rpm 2,448 rpm
Luis Cessa 41 92.3 mph 2,283 rpm 2,468 rpm
MLB AVG for RP 93.4 mph 2,274 rpm 2,434 rpm

Five of those nine relievers posted below-average velocity the last two years. Only two had a below-average fastball spin rate and three had a below-average breaking ball spin rate. Robertson makes up for the lack of velocity with a killer curveball. Holder and Warren are kitchen sink guys with a wide array of secondary pitches. Is it a coincidence Warren and Shreve, the two guys with the fewest red cells in that table, were shipped elsewhere this past season? Maybe not!

Betances is, for all intents and purposes, the perfect Yankees reliever. He pairs comfortably above-average fastball velocity with comfortably above-average spin rates on both his fastball and breaking ball. And he misses a ton of bats. A ton. Chapman has three red cells in that table but his breaking ball spin rate is fairly close to average. Betances is well-above-average across the board. It’s not a coincidence he is so wildly successful when he throws strikes.

Clearly, the Yankees have a “type” when it comes to relievers. They want bat-missers who can really spin the ball. The more velocity, the better, but above-average velocity is not required. Knowing that, I decided to see whether we could use that information to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets. So I created a list. Here’s what I did:

  1. Found pitchers who recorded above-average spin rates on their fastball and breaking ball in 2018.
  2. Removed pitchers with a below-average swing-and-miss rate in 2018 (league average is 11.5%).
  3. Removed starters, recently signed free agents, current Yankees, and current Red Sox (since a trade with the Red Sox isn’t happening).
  4. Removed established relievers who, realistically, are not attainable (Kenley Jansen, etc.).

Step One turned up 193 pitchers, which is way more than I expected. Step Two whittled the list down to 139 pitchers. Step Three brought us down to 75 relievers. And finally, Step Four got us down to 68 pitchers. There are several recent former Yankees among those 68 names (Robertson, Parker Bridwell, etc.) which I’m sure is partly coincidence and partly the result of those guys being the Yankees’ type.

Here’s my spreadsheet with those 68 relievers. Among those 68 relievers are stud free agents (Robertson, Adam Ottavino), a bunch of “I know that guy” guys (Bud Norris, Luke Gregerson, Mychal Givens), and a bunch of relievers even hardcore fans may not know. Since we’ve spent a lot of time looking at the big names already this winter, we’re going to rummage through those 68 names to find potential under-the-radar bullpen targets. Here are five who caught me eye.

RHP Dan Altavilla, Mariners

  • Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
  • Fastball Spin Rate: 2,367 rpm
  • Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,786 rpm
  • Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? Altavilla, 26, was a fifth round pick in 2014 who really broke out when the Mariners moved him into the bullpen full-time in 2016. He’s had cups of coffee with Seattle each of the last three years and owns a 3.28 ERA (4.32 FIP) with a good strikeout rate (25.3%) and a not good walk rate (10.7%) in 79.2 career big league innings. He has ground ball (39.0%) and home run (1.24 HR/9) issues at times. Altavilla is a classic fastball/slider reliever who threw those pitches at close to a 50/50 split this year.

What’s his contract status? With one year and 129 days of service time (1.129), Altavilla comes with five years of team control, though he (likely) will be arbitration for the first of four times as a Super Two next offseason should he spend the entire 2019 season in the big leagues. That’s not a big deal. Arbitration doesn’t pay middle relievers well. Altavilla also has a minor league option remaining, so he can go to Triple-A without a problem next year.

Yay or nay? I think yay. The high walk rate is largely the result of a rough stretch this season in which he walked nine batters in 8.2 innings. He has a more tolerable 9.1% walk rate in his MLB career outside those 8.2 innings. We know the Mariners are selling and I can’t imagine they’d make a 26-year-old middle reliever off-limits in trade talks. There’s a chance at a 30% strikeout rate here.

RHP Daniel Hudson, Free Agent

  • Fastball Velocity: 95.4 mph
  • Fastball Spin Rate: 2,439 rpm
  • Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,569 rpm
  • Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.9%

Who is he? Hudson is pretty well known by now. The soon-to-be 32-year-old made his big league debut back in 2009 and he’s been a full-time reliever since a pair of Tommy John surgeries limited him to 48 innings from 2012-14. Hudson spent last season with the Dodgers — he went from the Pirates to the Rays in the Corey Dickerson trade and Tampa immediately released him — throwing 46 innings with a 4.11 ERA (4.38 FIP) and good enough strikeout (22.3%) and walk (9.1%) rates. Those numbers are more or less in line with his career norms since the two elbow reconstructions. Hudson’s a fastball/slider guy.

What’s his contract status? Hudson’s a free agent and no one ranked him as a top 50 free agent, so we don’t have any contract estimates. Two years ago he signed a two-year, $11M contract with Pittsburgh and they salary dumped him one year later. My hunch is Hudson’s looking at a one-year deal worth $5M or less. It’s worth noting the Yankees requested his medical information earlier this offseason.

Yay nor nay? I’m going to say nay. Hudson has been the same guy these last four years and that was true even after the Dodgers got him to throw far more sliders (40%) than ever this year. A low cost one-year contract is basically no risk. I’m just not sure there’s reason to believe Hudson has another level in his performance at this point of his career.

RHP DJ Johnson, Rockies

  • Fastball Velocity: 93.5 mph
  • Fastball Spin Rate: 2,338 rpm
  • Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,586 rpm
  • Swing-and-Miss Rate: 16.2%

Who is he? An undrafted free agent out of Western Oregon, the 29-year-old Johnson went from the Rays to the Diamondbacks to an independent league to the Twins to the Angels to the Rockies from 2010-18. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up this past season and struck out nine in 6.1 innings, which was good enough to land him a spot on Colorado’s Wild Card Game and NLDS rosters. Prior to that, Johnson had a 3.90 ERA (2.81 FIP) with 35.7% strikeouts and 6.4% walks in 55.1 Triple-A innings. He’s another fastball/slider reliever.

What’s his contract status? Johnson was added to a 40-man roster for the very first time in September, so he comes with all six years of team control and all three minor league options. That said, he’s a 29-year-old rookie, so chances are he won’t see the end of those six years of control, and if you’re still optioning him down at age 31, he’s probably not worth keeping around.

Yay or nay? I am intrigued enough to say yay but I’ve also been doing this long enough to know most 29-year-old rookies amount to nothing. The Brad Zieglers are few and far between. Maybe the Rockies like one out of the out-of-options guys (Luis Cessa, A.J. Cole, Tommy Kahnle) enough to do a one-for-one trade and the Yankees could swap an unoptionable pitcher for an optionable pitcher?

RHP Phil Maton, Padres

  • Fastball Velocity: 91.9 mph
  • Fastball Spin Rate: 2,563 rpm
  • Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,749 rpm
  • Swing-and-Miss Rate: 15.4%

Who is he? Maton, 25, is a former 20th round pick who worked his way up the minor league ladder and has thrown 90.1 big league innings with a 4.28 ERA (4.12 FIP) and good enough strikeout (25.6%) and walk (9.4%) rates the last two years. The grounder (40.3%) and homer (1.30 HR/9) rates are worrisome. Unlike everyone else in this post, Maton is a fastball/curveball pitcher, not a fastball/slider pitcher.

What’s his contract status? Maton is at 1.107 years of service time, so he has five years of control, including two as a pre-arbitration-eligible player. He also has two minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Maton doesn’t have overwhelming velocity but he spins the hell out of his fastball and he knows how to pitch up in the zone with it, and that mixes quite well with a hard downer curveball. The walk and grounder rates are not good, but hey, maybe they’ll improve with experience. Only one needs to improve, really. There are a lot of Padres pitchers on my list of 68 pitchers (Maton, Matt Strahm, Miguel Diaz, etc.) so maybe a package of two or three makes sense in a Sonny Gray trade.

RHP Chad Sobotka, Braves

  • Fastball Velocity: 96.6 mph
  • Fastball Spin Rate: 2,391 rpm
  • Breaking Ball Spin Rate: 2,802 rpm
  • Swing-and-Miss Rate: 13.6%

Who is he? The 25-year-old Sobotka was a fourth round pick in 2014 and he reached the big leagues for the first time as an up-and-down arm in the second half this year. He struck out 21 and walked nine in 14.1 innings — that works out to a 36.2% strikeout rate and a 15.5% walk rate — and made the club’s NLDS roster. Sobotka had 2.03 ERA (2.67 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 12.6% walks in 57.2 minor league innings before his call-up. He’s another fastball/slider guy. They are all over the place.

What’s his contract status? Sobotka has less than a year of service time and he didn’t even burn an option this year, so he has six years of control and all three minor league options remaining.

Yay or nay? I lean yay but Sobotka’s career-long control issues are significant — he has an 11.9% walk rate in the minors — and do give me some pause. A potential issue here (and with Johnson, I suppose) is that the Braves are contending and may not want to trade away a hard-throwing, high-strikeout, optionable reliever. Finding a trade match might not be easy.

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There is much more to life than spin rate, of course. Bryan Mitchell could spin the ball like nobody’s business but he couldn’t miss bats. Spin rate is just one tool in the shed, as is swing-and-miss rate and velocity and all sorts of other things. Find the right mix and it can work well. And sometimes you think you have the right mix and it doesn’t work for whatever reason. That’s baseball. Live and learn. The Yankees seem to have the spin thing worked out pretty well.

The point of this exercise is to find pitchers who could be attractive to the Yankees because of the skills they possess, not because of what they’ve done in the past. We’re looking for guys who’ve yet to really establish themselves as above-average big league relievers with the idea that the Yankees could pick them up, maybe tweak some things, then benefit from an uptick in performance. They’re not big name players and that’s the point. To get them before they become big names.

Granted, it is only December 20th, but the deeper we go into the offseason without the Yankees making a bullpen addition, the more I expect them to bring in a surprise reliever. Heck, they could add the two relievers they’re said to want plus a surprise reliever. And, given their recent history and the kind of relievers they’ve rostered, the smart money is on that hypothetical surprise reliever having high spin rates and a history of missing bats.

Prospect Profile: Rodney Hutchison

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(Robert Pimpsner/Pinstriped Prospects)

Rodney Hutchison | RHP

Background
Hutchison, 22, grew up outside Cincinnati in Mason, Ohio, and he played pretty much everything at Mason High School. Four years of baseball, four years of basketball, two years of football, and one year of hockey. He was All-State in baseball. Despite that, Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Hutchison among the top 500 prospects for the 2015 draft and he went unselected out of high school.

Hutchison followed through on his commitment to North Carolina and didn’t see much action as a freshman on the perpetually stacked Tar Heels pitching staff. He allowed 15 runs in 17 mostly mop-up innings his first year with UNC, then he headed to the Coastal Plains League for additional innings during the summer. Hutchison made ten starts and threw 49.2 innings with a 3.44 ERA and more walks (31) than strikeouts (26) for the Holly Springs Salamanders.

As a sophomore Hutchison emerged as an important multi-inning reliever with the Tar Heels, pitching to a 4.14 ERA with 43 strikeouts and 17 walks in 58.2 innings. Thirteen times in 30 relief appearances he went at least two innings. Hutchison spent that summer in the Cape Cod League, where he allowed two runs in 25.1 innings for the Chatham Anglers. Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank him among the top 30 prospects in the league, however.

This past spring Hutchison worked as a jack of all trades pitcher for UNC. He made ten starts and 13 relief appearances, threw 59 innings, and pitched to a 4.55 ERA with 56 strikeouts and 16 walks. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Hutchison as the 462nd best prospect in the 2018 draft class and the Yankees selected him with their sixth round pick, the 187th overall selection. He signed quickly for a below-slot $197,500 (slot was $247,600).

Pro Debut
The Yankees sent Hutchison directly to Short Season Staten Island after signing and he posted a 1.97 ERA (3.02 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.4%), walk (4.7%), and ground ball (64.4%) rates in 32 innings. He made six starts and three relief appearances. Hutchison participated in Instructional League after the season despite throwing a career high 91 innings between college and pro ball this season.

Scouting Report
First things first: Hutchison is Yankees-sized at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds. The Yankees love big pitchers and Hutchison is a big dude. He spent the 2016-17 seasons throwing 90-92 mph at UNC before living in the 93-95 mph range this spring, even touching 96-98 mph at times. Hutchison slings the ball from a low arm slot, almost sidearm, and that gives his fastball quite a bit of movement back in on righties.

At UNC, Hutchison’s best secondary pitch was a diving mid-80s changeup that helps him to neutralize lefties. His mid-80s slider improved this spring and again in pro ball this summer, so, at his very best, he goes to the mound with a fastball that runs all over the place and two putaway secondaries in his changeup and slider. Also, Hutchison likes to change up his tempo and delivery to mess with hitters. Here’s a good clip. He can’t be a comfortable at-bat for right-handed hitters.

The downside with Hutchison is that his command is not great and his control can come and go even though his walk rate with Staten Island this summer didn’t show it. Hutchison’s strike-throwing inconsistencies are at least partly to blame on his arm slot and various deliveries. It’s hard to throw strikes from that arm slot and his mechanics are unrefined because he’s always changing them. The Yankees didn’t let Hutchison vary his delivery (much) this summer and I don’t know whether that’s temporary or permanent.

Anyway, Hutchison is a big guy and he’s athletic, plus he’s drawn praise for being coachable and low maintenance. He works quickly on the mound and just plows ahead, going about his business. A coach’s and broadcaster’s dream. Hutchison’s raw stuff is quite good. Developing some consistent strike-throwing ability is the top priority going forward.

2019 Outlook
After three years at a major college program, Hutchison is more than ready for full season ball next year. The Yankees are loaded with lower level pitching prospects and there are only so many rotation spots to go around, so my guess is Hutchison will open next year as a swingman/multi-inning reliever with either Low-A Charleston or High-A Tampa. I expect him to pitch in Tampa at some point next year, even if he opens the season in Charleston. Working on a set schedule in that multi-inning relief role should stretch him out to 120-130 innings next season.

My Take
I’m a big Rodney Hutchison fan. I am pro-fun and he seems like a fun pitcher with the arm slot and the funky deliveries and all that. The fact he throws a moving fastball and has a chance for two very good secondary pitches is icing on the cake. I’m not sure Hutchison can start long-term with that arm slot — how many righty starters do you see releasing the ball from that far down? — but turning a below slot signing bonus in the sixth round into a big league righty reliever would be a very nice outcome. I’m a fan. Hutchison’s a neat little prospect.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Gonzalez, LeMahieu, & Lowrie

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Marwin Gonzalez going deep. (Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees need for a middle infielder is paramount, with Didi Gregorius still shelved for a still undetermined period of time; and, lest we forget, this is also his last season of team control. Brian Cashman and Co. are meeting today with the best available option to fill that hole – both now and long-term – in Manny Machado. Given the competition for his services and whatever payroll restrictions the Yankees have, however, the likelihood of Machado signing on the dotted line feels lower than most anyone would like. As such, it makes sense to dig into the next tier of middle infield options, even if that would mean shifting Gleyber Torres to short.

And so, without further ado, let’s talk about Marwin Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Jed Lowrie.

Marwin Gonzalez

2018 Stats – .247/.324/.409, 16 HR, 2 SB, 104 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

I think there is something of a collective overrating of Gonzalez, due to his positional flexibility and his prominence as a contributor to the Houston Astros these last two years. Well it’s that, and the fact that he was absurdly productive in 2017, slashing .303/.377/.530 (144 wRC+) with 23 home runs, and playing at least 19 games at five different positions (first, second, third, short, and left). That season sticks out like a sore thumb, though:

I would not argue that Gonzalez is a bad player; far from it, in fact. He has a great deal of value as a player that offers a league-average bat and sound defense all around the field, and his pop and recently found on-base skills should not be discounted. I would just urge caution with anyone that compares him to Ben Zobrist – the standard-bearer for this role – as Zobrist’s track record was eight years of strong production (124 wRC+ from 2008 through 2015) before he hit free agency.

Of course, a utility player doesn’t have to be Zobrist to be worth a spot on the roster. I just believe that our expectations should be more in-line with Gonzalez’s 2018 (or 2014 and 2015) than 2017. But I’ve digressed enough.

Gonzalez, who will be 30 in March, has logged 500+ innings at the five positions mentioned above. Here’s how he grades out:

  • First Base: +1.2 UZR/150, +3.0 DRS/150
  • Second Base: -5.2 UZR/150, +4.7 DRS/150
  • Third Base: -6.7 UZR/150, -3.2 DRS/150
  • Shortstop: -6.9 UZR/150, -0.6 DRS/150
  • Left Field: +8.0 UZR/150, +10.2 DRS/150

There is one caveat to those numbers: Gonzalez has gotten progressively worse at shortstop over the last two years (-6.5 UZR, -8 DRS), so I wouldn’t count on him being anything more than below-average there. However, I do think he can be counted on to be more than passable at second, which is the position at issue, as well as first – which would help his fit once Gregorius returns.

So what we have here is a league-average (or slightly better) switch-hitter with average-ish defense at a position of need (if not two). What’s the going rate for that? MLB Trade Rumors projects four years, $36 MM, whereas the FanGraphs crowd foresees three years, $30 MM. There’s no qualifying offer consideration here, so it’s just cold hard cash for Gonzalez’s services.

Is there hidden value here, though? Something that can be tapped into by a move to Yankee Stadium, perhaps? The answer is … not really. Gonzalez is more of an all fields hitter from the left side of the plate, so the short porch may not help him as much as you’d expect. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – but he’s not the sort of player that stands to take serious advantage of the park’s dimensions.

With all that in mind, I think Gonzalez is a good fit for the Yankees. The price seems reasonable, and there’s the off-chance that he has another big season or two in his bat. And, as a baseline, we know he can handle at least three positions well-enough, and he’s a better hitter than the vast majority of utility players. He’s also still in his prime, so we shouldn’t have to worry about decline for another two or three years.

DJ LeMahieu

(Ralph Freso/Getty)

2018 Stats – .276/.321/.428, 15 HR, 6 SB, 86 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

LeMahieu has been a full-time player since joining the Rockies for their stretch run in 2012, and has spent the vast majority of his time as the everyday second baseman. He has won three Gold Gloves in that time, including back-to-back wins in 2017 and 2018, and there’s no doubt that he is one of the premier keystone defenders in all of baseball. LeMahieu averages +4.6 UZR/150 and +11.6 DRS/150 for his career, and is coming off of his best season by both metrics. If the Yankees want to make sure second is in good hands while Torres mans shortstop, there might not be a better option out there.

But what about his bat?

At face value, the right-handed LeMahieu has the look of a quality contact hitter. He has slashed .298/.350/.406 in 3799 career plate appearances, and his strikeout rate of 15.2% is among the best in the league. Here’s the rub: he’s a Coors Field guy.

LeMahieu is a .329/.386/.447 (96 wRC+) hitter at Coors, and a .267/.314/.367 hitter (84 wRC+) everywhere else. Put that together and you have a guy with a 90 wRC+, who has just one season (2016) where he posted a wRC+ that was better than league-average. His high-contact approach pays dividends at high altitude, but makes him an empty batting average guy elsewhere.

The 30-year-old LeMahieu, then, isn’t all that different from the all-glove, no-hit options that Mike mentioned as possible fill-ins at shortstop. Is there really much difference between an elite defensive second baseman with an 84 wRC+, and Freddy Galvis – an elite defensive shortstop – and his 77 wRC+? I don’t think so.

To summarize, LeMahieu is a right-handed hitter that doesn’t offer pop or big-time on-base skills. His defense is great – but that’s basically all of his value. And most projections see him making eight-figures per year for two or three years. That’s a hard-pass for me.

Jed Lowrie

(Ezra Shaw/Getty)

2018 Stats – .267/.353/.448, 23 HR, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR

Lowrie, who will turn 35 in April, has had an up-and-down career that is somehow entering its twelfth season. I still remember him as a tantalizing Red Sox prospect from way back when, and I remember the frustration at his propensity for injuries – flukish and otherwise. But he has been healthy in each of the last two years, which have been the two best years of his career. They were eerily similar, too:

  • 2017 – .277/.360/.448, 119 wRC+, 11.3 BB%, 15.5 K%, 119 wRC+
  • 2018 – .267/.353/.448, 122 wRC+, 11.5 BB%, 18.8 K%, 122 wRC+

How’s that for consistency?

The switch-hitting Lowrie has also shown a starker platoon split these last two years, slashing .255/.336/.393 (102 wRC+) against lefties and .278/.364/.498 (128 wRC+) against righties. That may not be ideal, but it isn’t a deal breaker, either. And being above-average against righties and average against lefties is better than the opposite, given that far more plate appearances will come against righties.

Offensively, then, Lowrie looks quite good. He walks at an above-average clip, hits for power, and doesn’t strike out all that much. And he’s done this in the unfriendly environs of Oakland, to boot. So what about his defense?

Lowrie has experience at every infield position. He came up as a shortstop, but hasn’t played there regularly since 2014; second base has been his home since 2016. Let’s see how he’s done there:

  • 2016: -5.5 UZR/150, -11.9 DRS/150
  • 2017: -0.7 UZR/150, -1.8 DRS/150
  • 2018: 5.6 UZR/150, +0.9 DRS/150

That kind of looks like a learning curve, doesn’t it? Lowrie played around 400 innings at the keystone prior to 2016, and it showed. Since then, however, he’s been somewhere between average and an asset thereat. He’s in his mid-30s now, so he might be closer to average (if not a tick below) sooner rather than later – but I think he’s a safe bet to be reliable there.

As was the case with Gonzalez and LeMahieu, there are no draft pick considerations – it’s just cash. MLBTR projects three years and $30 MM, and FanGraphs prediction two and $24 MM. The age is disconcerting, as is the injury history (particularly when taken in conjunction with his age), but Lowrie somehow feels safe enough to me. I would rather have him for two years than three, though.

And if it comes down to Gonzalez or Lowrie, I think it’s an intriguing debate to have. Gonzalez offers comparative youth and way more versatility, but Lowrie was much better last year, and is probably a better hitter and defender at second. If I had to choose, I might go with Gonzalez, if only because he can be a bench asset once Gregorius returns to the fold; Lowrie is all but limited to second (and maybe third). These are definitely the two best options on the market this side of Machado, though, and I’d be happy with either.

Bryce Harper and the fallacy of having too many outfielders

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(Scott Taetsch/Getty)

Last week at the Winter Meetings, Brian Cashman and Scott Boras had a weird little back-and-forth in the media about free agent Bryce Harper. Cashman said the Yankees don’t need an outfielder and thus don’t need Harper. Boras more or less laughed that off. He wants the Yankees involved for leverage purposes, if nothing else, and of course Cashman is going downplay interest in any free agent.

“At no point all winter have I said I am looking for an outfielder. The Harper stuff, I am surprised you are still asking,” said Cashman to George King. “I have Judge, Stanton, Ellsbury, Gardner, Frazier, Hicks. Ellsbury will be healthy and Frazier will be healthy (but even if we) take them out, I have Hicks in center and Stanton, who is athletic as hell, as the DH because Judge is in right and I have Gardner in left.”

“I’ve never heard the Yankees say (they don’t need an outfielder),” Boras shot back to Ken Davidoff. “As far as the Yankees and what discussions I, Hal (Steinbrenner), and Cash have had, I will leave that to our own … The Yankees are very adept. They’re smart. They are going to do something, and I think they can earnestly tell you that right now they’re not doing it and have every intention of doing something else when it’s best for them to do it.”

On paper, the Yankees do not need an outfielder. Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks are locked into two of the three outfield spots. Brett Gardner is more of a platoon guy and a part-time player at this point of his career, but, even then, the Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton for the third outfield spot. Jacoby Ellsbury is owed a ton of money and Clint Frazier is a former top prospect who could very well claim an everyday outfield job by midseason.

The outfield — and thus Harper — does not appear to be a priority at this point. Now that J.A. Happ is back on board, the Yankees need a middle infielder and bullpen help more than anything. That is an oversimplification, however, and it completely ignores Harper being a just turned 26-year-old star. I think he’s a generational talent. Players who hit .279/.388/.512 (139 OPS+) with 184 (!) homers and +27 WAR through their age 25 season are extremely rare.

As far as I’m concerned, Harper (and Manny Machado) is the type of player you bring in no matter what. You sign him when you have the chance because the chance to sign a player like this doesn’t come around often, and you make the roster work around him. Four things derail this “the Yankees don’t room in the outfield for Harper” fallacy that somehow came to exist:

  1. Gardner can easily be moved to the bench to open up left field.
  2. Cashman himself admitted Ellsbury may not be ready for Opening Day after hip surgery.
  3. Frazier is coming back from concussion issues and remains unproven at the MLB level.
  4. There is life beyond 2019.

Imagine passing on a talent like Harper because you believe you already have six Major League caliber outfielders, and three of them are Gardner, Ellsbury, and Frazier? Goodness. Gardner is best used in moderation these days and he was moved into a bench role following the Andrew McCutchen trade this year. He can be moved to the bench in deference to Harper too. Ellsbury? Frazier? Who knows. The Yankees can’t count on them for anything at this point.

I mean, we all watched this past season, right? The Yankees went into Spring Training with the exact same outfield depth chart as the one they have right now, except Ellsbury and Frazier were healthy, and they had Billy McKinney too. Lots of outfielders! Nine games into the season Jace Peterson was starting in left field. Nine games. Depth at even the deepest positions can evaporate quickly.

That fourth point seems to be a forgotten one too. Whoever signs Harper is not just signing Harper for 2019. He’s getting multiple years. Maybe as many as 10-12 years. Both Hicks and Gardner will be free agents next offseason, and, in two offseasons, Ellsbury will be a free agent and Stanton could opt out of his contract. It is possible if not likely the Yankees will be looking for two everyday outfielders in eleven months. No room for Harper? Please.

And let’s not forget about the first base option. That doesn’t only apply to Harper either. Judge and Stanton are quite literally giants and who knows how their legs will hold up over the years? Running around the outfield at that size doesn’t seem like something they’ll be able to do long-term. First base (or DH) could be their ultimate destinations, further creating a need in the outfield. Point is, there are a lot — a lot — of ways to clear outfield space for Harper.

I don’t believe Cashman was being sincere when he listed six outfielders as evidence the Yankees don’t need Harper. The Yankees have to downplay their interest in Harper because, if they don’t, Boras will take them to the cleaners. Cashman knows the Yankees can fit Harper into their outfield. The question, as always, is money. Are the Yankees willing to spend what it takes? If yes, the “we have too many outfielders” talking point will disappear in a hurry.

Report: Yanks hiring Carlos Beltran as special assistant to GM

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(NY Daily News)

According to Mark Feinsand, the Yankees are adding Carlos Beltran to their front office as a special assistant to GM Brian Cashman. The team has not yet announced the hire. There’s no reason to doubt Feinsand’s reporting, but, if you do, Joel Sherman confirmed it as well. It’s happening.

Beltran, now 41, retired as a player and spent last season home with his family after winning the 2017 World Series with the Astros. He interviewed and was one of six finalists for the Yankees’ managerial job last winter. Here’s what I wrote in my thoughts post soon after Aaron Boone was hired:

6. Speaking of the front office, I think the odds are pretty darn good the Yankees will hire Beltran as a special advisor to Brian Cashman, similar to Hideki Matsui. I think that’s why they brought him in for the managerial interview. To show him respect and to show him he’s wanted. Matsui has been a special advisor to Cashman for three years now and his duties include, among other things, going around and working with prospects in the minors. I know Beltran said he wants to manage, but going from player one year to manager the next is a huge jump, and was probably never all that realistic. A special advisor role is much less demanding. There’s less travel and more time at home with the family, which a recently retired player figures to appreciate. But he also gets to stay in baseball and begin the second phase of his career. Matsui and Beltran are very similar. They are dignified and very highly respected, and have a lot of baseball knowledge to offer. The Yankees could bring Beltran aboard as a special advisor with the promise that if a coaching or managerial job opens somewhere around the league, he’s free to leave. He can work with players up and down the organization, particularly Latin American players, in the meantime. Beltran is someone worth having in the organization and I think the Yankees let him know they want him during their interview, even if they didn’t name him their manager.

Beltran’s responsibilities as a special assistant are unknown but I’m certain the Yankees will put him to good use and he’ll be asset. As far as I’m concerned, people as knowledgeable and respected as Beltran are always welcome in the front office. He’ll have a big impact on players throughout the organization, especially Latin American players. I don’t even need to know what Beltran will be doing to declare this a great hire.

Like pretty much every other team, the Yankees have many ex-players serving as special assistants, though their ex-players are more well-know than everyone else’s. Beltran joins Reggie Jackson, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, and Nick Swisher as a special assistants/special advisor, among others.

Tuesday Notes: Sabathia, Luxury Tax, Severino, London Series

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(Getty)

The 2018 Winter Meetings are over and, historically, this last week before the Christmas and New Years holidays is a busy hot stove week. Teams and players like to get things settled before the calendar flips to next year. There should be some signings this week. Will the Yankees make any? We’ll see. Anyway, here are some miscellaneous notes to check out.

Yankees paid Sabathia innings bonus

Remember when CC Sabathia forfeited that $500,000 bonus because he threw at Jesus Sucre in his last regular season start? Of course you do. That was the “that’s for you, bitch” incident. Turns out Sabathia didn’t forfeit the bonus at all. According to Ronald Blum, the Yankees paid Sabathia the $500,000 bonus anyway even though he fell two innings short of triggering the bonus. Pretty cool.

“We thought it was a very nice gesture by the Yankees. CC was very appreciative and is really excited to come back next year and hopefully win a championship,” said Sabathia’s agent to Blum. Considering the score (Yankees led 11-0) and the way he was pitching (five one-hit innings), it seemed very likely Sabathia would throw those last two innings he needed to trigger the bonus. I have to say, I didn’t think the Yankees would pay the bonus. Paying out a bonus the player didn’t reach doesn’t seem like a precedent they’d want to set. Glad to see they paid Sabathia. Dude’s been worth every penny.

Yankees get $23,877.11 in luxury tax money

According to Blum, the Red Sox and Nationals were the only clubs to exceed the $197 million luxury tax threshold in 2018. Boston owes $11,951,091 in luxury tax and the Nationals owe $2,386,097. Because the Red Sox exceeded the threshold by more than $40M, they were hit with the maximum possible penalties, meaning two surtaxes plus having their first round pick moved back ten spots. I doubt they mind it after winning the World Series. The $14,337,188 owed by the Red Sox and Nationals is the smallest luxury tax bill since teams owed $11,798,357 in 2003.

The Yankees finished the season with a $192.98M luxury tax payroll. Add in the Sabathia bonus and my calculations had them at $192.99M. I am pretty darn proud to be that close. Go me. Anyway, the Yankees had paid luxury tax every year since the system was put in place in 2003 before getting under this year. Their total luxury tax bill from 2003-17 was north of $340M. According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the first $13M of that $14,337,188 is used to pay for player benefits. Half the remainder goes to retirement accounts and the other half is distributed to the non-luxury tax paying teams. So congrats to the Yankees for getting $23,877.11 in luxury tax money this year. Hang a banner.

White Sox wanted Severino for Sale

Here’s a fun retroactive rumor. Brian Cashman recently told Ken Davidoff the White Sox wanted Luis Severino and another unnamed young core Yankee in exchange for Chris Sale during the 2016-17 offseason. I imagine that other player was either Gary Sanchez or Aaron Judge. “Thank God I didn’t do that, actually, because you’d be missing some serious components of our Major League club right now that are under control. We wouldn’t have gotten anywhere if I did anything like that with the White Sox back then,” said Cashman.

In the two years since trade talks, Sale has Severino beat in bWAR (+12.9 to +10.1) and fWAR (+14.2 to +11.5) but not by an enormous amount, and besides, who knows how each would’ve performed had the trade gone down. Their entire career paths would’ve changed in different organizations. Add in the second piece and gosh, I am a-okay with passing on Sale at that price. He’s a great pitcher. No doubt. The Yankees needed more than an ace pitcher at the time though. They needed as much young talent as possible and now they have a ton of it.

Start times for London Games announced

Olympic Stadium. (Getty)

A few days ago MLB announced the start times for the London Series games next June. The Yankees and Red Sox are playing a quick two-game set at London Stadium next year as MLB looks to grow the game globally and make money (not necessarily in that order). The Yankees will be the road team for those two games. Here are the start times:

  • Saturday, June 29th: 1:10pm ET (6pm in London) on FOX
  • Sunday, June 30th: 10:10am ET (3pm in London) on ESPN

Morning baseball on a Sunday? Pretty cool. The Yankees have back-to-back off-days prior to the London Series — it’s my understanding MLB has some promotional events scheduled for Friday, so I’m sure Yankees and Red Sox players will be involved — and one off-day following the London Series. They have a ten-game homestand, then they go to London for two games, then they come right back to New York for a road series against the Mets.

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball Games moved up

It is a baseball miracle. Last week at the Winter Meetings it was announced ESPN Sunday Night Baseball games will be moved up one hour from 8pm ET to 7pm ET next season. Thank goodness for that. Now all those Sunday night Yankees-Red Sox games might actually end before midnight on the East Coast. The Yankees play a ton of Sunday night games each year and this means we’ll all get to bed at a more reasonable hour those nights.

The change was made because players hate those 8pm ET start times too. At least one team has to travel after the late Sunday game and get into their next city super early the next morning. Now they’ll have that extra hour. ESPN has released a partial 2019 Sunday Night Baseball schedule and already there are three Yankees-Red Sox games on the schedule (June 2nd, July 28th, August 4th). I’m sure the Yankees will play several other Sunday night games as well. They are unavoidable.

Yankee Stadium food safety rates poorly

According to an ESPN investigation, Yankee Stadium ranked dead last among the 30 MLB stadiums in food safety violations from 2016-17. That is a bad thing. Forty-three Yankee Stadium food service outlets were inspected and 34 contained high-level violations, including food that was “adulterated, contaminated, cross-contaminated, or not discarded” properly. Pretty gross! The Yankees and Dan Smith, president of Yankee Stadium food service provider Legends Hospitality, fired back at the report in a statement:

“We treat food safety with the utmost care. We disagree with the ESPN report, whose methodology is unexplainable. We work closely on regular inspections with the New York City Department of Health, whose rigorous participation is welcomed. We also complete our own independent assessments with various consultants and auditors, including food safety companies. If any violation is pointed out, it is addressed and corrected immediately. As a result, in 2018, all of our food stands received an A-level grade, which is the highest level in New York City.”

I suppose I should note the violation level at Yankee Stadium (0.67 high-level violations per inspection) is far lower than the violation level in the surrounding South Bronx area (1.47) so … yay? If at all possible, don’t eat at Yankee Stadium, and I would’ve said that even before seeing this report. The food is expensive and compared to other ballparks around the league, the concessions are seriously lacking. Seriously, how do the Yankees with their new ballpark have such crummy concessions? Folks, eat before or after the game if you can.