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River Ave. Blues ยป Carlos Gomez

Scouting the Trade Market: Fill-In Outfielders

August 14, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Cutch & Pence. (Presswire)

For only the the fifth time in the last 12 games, Shane Robinson did not start for the Yankees last night. Robinson has played so much lately because Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier are on the disabled list, and because Giancarlo Stanton is nursing a hamstring injury. The Yankees are so short on outfielders at the moment that Neil Walker has started the last three games in right field.

There is still no firm timetable for Judge or Frazier to return from the disabled list, or for Stanton to resume playing the outfield. The Yankees tried to acquire another bat at the deadline but came up empty, though the need remains. Robinson’s playing too much and I’m not sure Walker in right field is viable long-term. The Yankees could use another outfielder, for sure.

Ideally, whoever the Yankees acquire will be comfortable slotting into a bench role once Judge returns. Being a bench player is not easy. We saw how much Walker struggled earlier this year when he was playing sparingly. As always, there are plenty of spare part bats on the August trade market, some of which are more attractive than others. Here are a few who could interest the Yankees while Judge and Frazier are sidelined.

John Andreoli, Mariners

2018 Batting Line: .279/.392/.390 (113 wRC+) with 19 steals in 21 attempts in Triple-A

Why Him? The players in this post are listed alphabetically, though I suppose it’s only right we start with the guy no one knows. Andreoli, 28, was a career minor leaguer with the Cubs before joining the Mariners as a minor league free agent. He has three games worth of MLB experience, all with Seattle this year, and over the last four years he’s posted a .370 OBP with lots of walks (13.8%) and lots of steals (121-for-156, 76%) in nearly 2,000 Triple-A plate appearances. There’s even a little pop in his bat.

Andreoli is a speed and defense outfielder who takes his walks, steals some bases, and will catch everything in all three outfield spots. Even with Judge and Gary Sanchez sidelined, the Yankees have some power to spare. A speedy outfielder who hits ninth and puts together long at-bats can fit the lineup well right now.

Why Not Him? I have no idea whether Andreoli is an upgrade over Robinson. He’s five years younger, I know that much, but Andreoli has no MLB track record. Robinson is another speed and defense outfielder, remember. They’re kinda the same player. You say tomato, I say tomahto. Trading for Andreoli might be at best a lateral move and potentially even a downgrade.

What Will It Cost? This can probably be a cash trade. The Yankees got fellow Quad-A types George Kontos and Gio Urshela in cash deals earlier this month.

Jose Bautista, Mets

2018 Batting Line: .195/.335/.368 (98 wRC+) with nine home runs

Why Him? If nothing else, Bautista will still draw walks (16.7%) and get on base at a respectable clip while running into the occasional fastball. His platoon split is relatively small (102 wRC+ vs. 94 wRC+), so he doesn’t necessarily need to be platooned, plus Bautista can also play first and third bases, if necessary. He’s done both this year. He knows the AL East and he’s not going to be scared away by a postseason race.

Why Not Him? Even with last night’s homer, Bautista stopped hitting a few weeks ago. He’s at .161/.282/.259 (59 wRC+) in 131 plate appearances since July 1st, and the whole “he can play the four corner positions” thing doesn’t help much given his overall below-average defensive play. Right now, the only thing you can count on 37-year-old Jose Bautista to do is draw walks. Does that make him an upgrade over Robinson? Maybe! Enough to make it worth the hassle? Eh.

What Will It Cost? Probably another cash trade. Cash or a very fringe prospect. I can’t imagine any team would pay much for a declining player who didn’t sign until mid-April and has already been released once this year. That all said, are the Mets willing to trade with the Yankees? I’ll need to see it to believe it.

Carlos Gomez, Rays

2018 Batting Line: .218/.309/.354 (88 wRC+) with eight homers and nine steals

Why Him? Gomez remains a strong defender even at age 32, though he’s much better in the corners than in center at this point. There’s not much thump in his bat these days. He can still ambush a fastball and steal the occasional base, and that’s about it. His platoon split (99 wRC+ vs. 84 wRC+) is small, so it’s not like the Yankees would be bringing in a bona fide lefty masher. Gomez is better than Robinson though, has been his entire career, and he’s still young enough that there might be a good dead cat bounce in here.

Why Not Him? Fair or not, Gomez is the type who rubs some people the wrong way. The Yankees might not want to bring anyone in who could potentially disrupt the clubhouse, especially since we’re talking about a bit player who will get pushed into a bench role once Judge returns. Whatever little bit Gomez gives you on the field might be negated by him getting on everyone’s nerves.

What Will It Cost? A lower ranked prospect who might not crack his team’s top 30 list. Spare parts like Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda were traded for fringe top 30 prospects last August. That’s the benchmark.

Curtis Granderson, Blue Jays

2018 Batting Line: .234/.333/.414 (105 wRC+) with ten home runs

Why Him? Who doesn’t love the Grandyman? Granderson still takes his walks (12.1%) and will sock some dingers, plus he knows how to use the short porch. Few left-handed hitters have done it better since the current Yankee Stadium opened a decade ago. Granderson can still hold his own against high-end pitching …

… and his .240/.336/.429 (109 wRC+) batting line against righties is far better than anything Robinson will give you. Granderson has been used as a platoon bat for a few years now, so he’s comfortable with a part-time role, plus he’s a Grade-A dude who fits in any clubhouse. I suspect that, if the Yankees brought Granderson back, it’d be like David Robertson last year. Like he never left. He’d fit right in.

Why Not Him? Granderson is a strict platoon bat, so you can’t use him against lefties, and his defense has slipped with age. Also, his 29.5% strikeout rate is a career high, and the Yankees don’t really need to add more strikeouts to the lineup. Otherwise, Granderson is a rental on a bad team, and he’d be a clear upgrade over Robinson, even in a part-time role.

What Will It Cost? Last August the Mets traded Granderson for a Triple-A reliever (Jacob Rhame) who was a prospect, but not a very good one. No reason to think it’ll cost more to get him this time around.

Andrew McCutchen, Giants

2018 Batting Line: .255/.355/.413 (114 wRC+) with 13 home runs

Why Him? McCutchen’s days as an MVP candidate are over, but he remains an above-average hitter who draws walks (12.4%), doesn’t strike out excessively (21.7%), and hits lefties hard (124 wRC+). He is someone the Yankees (or any team, for that matter) could run out there on an everyday basis with no issues whatsoever. McCutchen can still hit and hit in the middle of a contending team’s lineup. Get him out of AT&T Park and his power numbers will increase for sure. He’s an obvious fit.

Why Not Him? First of all, the pro-rated portion of his $14.5M salary doesn’t fit under the $197M luxury tax threshold. The Yankees would have to get the Giants to eat some money to make it work, which means giving up more in return. Also, McCutchen’s defense is not very good at this point, even in right field, and how does he handle being bumped into a reserve role once Judge returns? He seems like a more realistic option for a long-term injury. As far as we know, Judge remains on track to return at some point soon. If he were going to miss the rest of the season, then McCutchen would fit.

What Will It Cost? McCutchen has real trade value, and the more money the Giants eat, the more they can demand in return. San Francisco gave up a good prospect (Bryan Reynolds) and a big league reliever (Kyle Crick) to get McCutchen in the offseason, though they acquired a full season of him. Now they’re giving up less than one-third of a season of him. I don’t think asking for a quality mid-range prospect would be unreasonable. A Domingo Acevedo type, with the Giants eating some money to make the luxury tax plan work.

Hunter Pence, Giants

2018 Batting Line: .213/.250/.287 (45 wRC+) with one home run

Why Him? Well, he’s definitely available. The Giants have bumped the obviously declining Pence into a fourth outfielder’s role, so he’ll be okay with that once Judge returns. As with McCutchen, the Giants would have to eat salary to make this work — Pence is making $18.5M this year — though he should come cheap anyway. Think along the lines of the Vernon Wells salary dump.

Why Not Him? Pence can’t hit — he owns a .150/.203/.183 (4 wRC+) line against lefties, so you can’t even platoon him — can’t play defense, and can’t really run anymore. He is definitely more name value than on-field value at this point. Maybe being back in a postseason race will re-energize Pence and the Yankees can catch lightning in a bottle. At this point though, it is entirely possible if not likely he is no better than Robinson.

What Will It Take? Cash or non-prospects. Even if the Giants eat money. There’s just not much here.

Danny Valencia, Orioles

2018 Batting Line: .263/.316/.408 (93 wRC+) with nine home runs

Why Him? The Orioles designated Valencia for assignment over the weekend as part of the process of clearing roster space for younger players. He is a career southpaw masher and this year he owns a .303/.368/.505 (132 wRC+) line against lefties. Valencia can fake the four corner positions as well, so there is some versatility here. And considering he’s currently in DFA limbo, he should cost next to nothing to acquire. The Yankees might even be able to wait until he becomes a free agent, then sign him to the pro-rated portion of the league minimum.

Why Not Him? Valencia is useless against righties (64 wRC+) and he’s a terrible defender anywhere, so the versatility just means he can cost you runs at more positions. Also, Valencia has a reputation for being a bit of a headache in the clubhouse. There’s a reason he’s played for seven different teams since 2012 despite solid offensive numbers.

What Will It Take? Well, he’s in DFA limbo now, so nothing. Cash trade or wait until he gets released, then just sign him.

Filed Under: Trade Deadline Tagged With: Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Danny Valencia, Hunter Pence, John Andreoli, Jose Bautista, Scouting the Trade Market

The Long-Term Future in Center Field

March 1, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

Ellsbury. (Presswire)
Ellsbury. (Presswire)

This is an exciting time to be a Yankees fan. The big league team might not be any good this season, and frankly they haven’t been all that good over the last four years anyway, but at least now the farm system is loaded and there are a ton of quality young players in the organization. Soon young guys like Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier will join Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird in the Bronx.

At some point in the near future, perhaps sooner than anyone realizes, the Yankees will have to figure out their center field situation. The two best center fielders on the roster, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury, will both turn 34 later this year. Over the last ten years there has been one full-time center fielder age 34 or older: Mike Cameron, who continued to play center full-time from ages 34-36 in 2007-09. No one else has done it.

Center field is a young man’s position because it involves lots and lots of running, day after day after day. The Yankees had Johnny Damon begin the process of moving to left field at age 33 because Melky Cabrera was the superior defensive option, remember. By center fielder standards, Gardner and Ellsbury are pretty darn old, and it stands to reason they won’t be viable options at the position much longer. Speed usually doesn’t age all that well.

This creates two questions for the Yankees. One, who plays center field long-term? And two, what do the Yankees do with Gardner and/or Ellsbury? I’ll answer the second one first: they’re probably going to trade Gardner at some point. Would they prefer to trade Ellsbury? Yeah, I’m sure of it. But that’s not happening, so Gardner it is. They’ve been listening on him for over a year, and it feels like only a matter of time until a trade goes down.

I get the feeling the eventual outcome here is Gardner gets traded away, then Ellsbury slides over to left field for the tail end of his contract, similar to Damon back in the day. (Or worse, to designated hitter full-time.) That creates an opening in center field, and as good as the farm system is these days, the Yankees don’t have an elite center field prospect. Torres is a shortstop, Frazier and Aaron Judge are corner outfielders, and so on.

That doesn’t mean the Yankees lack potential center field options, however. Not at all. They actually have quite a few, both short-term and long-term. That’s good. Multiple options are good. As much as we all love the prospects, the reality is they won’t all work out, and you’d hate to pin your hopes on that one guy to take over a position long-term. Here, in no particular order, are the club’s various long-term center field options.

The Almost Ready Option

Fowler. (Presswire)
Fowler. (Presswire)

When the 2017 regular season begins, Dustin Fowler figures to roam center field for Triple-A Scranton. Fowler is New York’s best pure center field prospect — I ranked him as the 12th best prospect in the system overall — and last year he hit .281/.311/.458 (109 wRC+) with 30 doubles, 15 triples, 12 homers, and 25 steals in Double-A. He really fills up the box score. Fowler is also a very good defender with plenty of range.

There are two glaring weaknesses to Fowler’s game. One, he doesn’t have much of a throwing arm. And two, he’s pretty undisciplined at the plate. Minor league walk rates aren’t everything, though his career 4.4% walk rate in over 1,500 minor league plate appearances is emblematic of his approach. Those are negatives, clearly, but Fowler also offers enough positives to be an everyday player. He makes contact, has some pop, steals bases, and defends well. Similar skill set to peak Ellsbury now that I think about it.

For all intents and purposes, Fowler is a call-up candidate right now. He’s going to start the season in Triple-A and will be added to the 40-man roster no later than next winter (when he’s Rule 5 Draft eligible), and any time those combination of things exist, there’s a chance for the player to wind up in the show. Fowler is, by far, the Yankees’ best close to MLB ready center field prospect. He is easily the favorite to take over the position in the short-term.

The Square Peg, Round Hole Option

Although his tools point to a long-term future in left field, Frazier has enough speed and athleticism to handle center field right now, if necessary. He has plenty of experience at the position — he’s played more minor league games in center (260) than he has in left and right combined (117) — and still possesses enough speed to cover the gaps. Would Frazier be a perfect fit in center? No, but it’s doable. The question is whether mid-30s Ellsbury in left and Frazier in center is a better defensive alignment than mid-30s Ellsbury in center and Frazier in left. It’s not so cut and dried.

The Conversion Candidates

Wade. (Presswire)
Wade. (Presswire)

The Yankees are loaded with shortstop prospects at the moment, so much so that they’ve had Tyler Wade and Jorge Mateo get acquainted with the outfield. Wade played all three outfield spots in the Arizona Fall League last year and he’s been out there this spring as well. Mateo worked out in center field in Instructional League and is doing the same this spring. He’s yet to play an actual game out there, however.

Wade, like Fowler, will open this season in Triple-A, though he’s not an immediate center field option given his inexperience at the position. He’s not someone the Yankees could call up and stick in center for two weeks in May to cover for injuries, you know? That’s a little too soon. Besides, it seems the Yankees are looking to make Wade a super utility player, not a full-time outfielder. He’s too good defensively on the infield to throw that away entirely.

As for Mateo, I am pretty intrigued with the idea of putting him in center field full-time. He’s a good defender at shortstop, that’s not much of a problem, but his truly elite speed may be put to better use in center. Mateo is a good defender at short. He might be a great defender in center. Either way, Mateo is not close to the big leagues like Fowler, Frazier, and Wade. He’s yet to play above High-A and has to answer some questions about his bat before we can start to think about him as a realistic center field option. (And, you know, he has to actually play some games in center too.)

The Reclamation Candidate(s)

Earlier I mentioned Gardner and Ellsbury are the two best center fielders on the roster, which is true when taking all things into account. The best defensive center fielder on the roster is Aaron Hicks (despite a few funky routes last season). He’s got top notch closing speed and a rocket arm. Right now, in the year 2017, Hicks is a better gloveman than either Gardner or Ellsbury in center.

The best defensive outfielder in the entire organization is another reclamation project: Mason Williams. He’s a premium runner who gets great reads, and while his arm isn’t Hicks caliber, it is comfortably above average. Even after shoulder surgery two years ago. It’s unclear whether Williams will ever hit enough to play regularly, but his glove is unquestioned. The Yankees could play him everyday in center and he could handle it defensively.

That “will he ever hit?” question is a big one though, and it applies to Hicks as well. Hicks and Williams are so talented that you can never rule out things coming together, especially at their ages, but for them to have any shot at replacing Ellsbury in center field full-time, they’re going to have to do more at the plate. No doubt. (To be fair to Williams, he’s been hurt more than ineffective the last two seasons.)

The Far Away Options

Fowler and Frazier (and Wade) are knocking on the door. Mateo is a little further away. Ever further away are Blake Rutherford and Estevan Florial, two high-upside center field prospects. Both figure to start the season at Low-A Charleston. They were teammates with Rookie Pulaski last year, where Rutherford played center field and Florial manned left. (First rounder gets priority.)

It goes without saying there is a lot of risk involved with players this far away from the big leagues. There’s so much that can go wrong these next few years. The obstacles facing Rutherford and Florial are very different too. The expectation is Rutherford will shift to a corner spot at some point as he fills out and adds some bulk. Florial is a graceful defender who happens to be a total hacker at the plate. He might not make enough contact to reach MLB.

Give the Yankees a truth serum and I’m sure they’d tell you they want Rutherford to be their long-term center fielder. Frazier, Rutherford, and Judge from left to right would be the perfect world long-term outfield picture. The odds are against that actually happening though, mostly because prospects have a way of breaking hearts. Rutherford and Florial are definitely long-term center field candidates. They’re just far away and carry a lot of risk relative to the other guys in this post.

The External Options

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

These are the Yankees, and even though they’re trying to scale back spending to get under the luxury tax threshold, you can never really rule them out going outside the organization for help. I, personally, am hoping for a Rob Refsnyder for Mike Trout trade. Fingers crossed. If that doesn’t happen, here are some potential free agent center fielders:

  • After 2017: Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gomez, Andrew McCutchen (if option is declined)
  • After 2018: Charlie Blackmon, Adam Jones, A.J. Pollock, McCutchen (if option is exercised)

A few of those guys would look pretty good in pinstripes, no? Cain is pretty damn awesome. He’s a fun player and I am pro-fun. Blackmon hit .324/.381/.552 (130 wRC+) with 29 homers and 17 steals last season, you know. Pollock missed a bunch of time with an elbow injury last year, but he’s quietly been one of the best players in baseball the last three or four years.

There’s also Bryce Harper, who will become a free agent following the 2018 season, when he’ll still be only 26 years old. He’s a really good athlete and has played center field for the Nationals at times. Could the Yankees view him as a potential center fielder? That’d be interesting. It’s not like he’d be over the hill or anything. Perhaps Harper in center could work for a few years. Frazier in left, Harper in center, Judge in right? Sign me up.

Anyway, the problem with the non-Harper free agents is the same problem that currently exists with Ellsbury. The Yankees would be paying big money to someone over 30 and in their decline years. Before you know it, we’d be talking about moving Cain or Blackmon or Pollock or whoever to left in favor of a better defensive center fielder. Signing a free agent center fielder is definitely possible. It just seems unlikely given the team’s direction at this point.

The Worst Case Scenario

This is going to sound mean, but the worst case scenario would be keeping Ellsbury in center field through the end of his contract. Maybe he can make it work defensively in his mid-30s like Cameron did once upon a time. He’d be an outlier in that case, but hey, stranger things have happened. I’m sure the Yankees would prefer to keep Ellsbury in center as long as possible too. That’s where he’s most valuable. History suggests his days in center are numbered, however. There simply aren’t many players age 34 and over roaming center nowadays.

* * *

The center field situation is not a pressing matter, fortunately. The Yankees don’t need to figure this out right now. They can let the season play out, see how Ellsbury handles it defensively and how the kids progress in the minors, then figure out what’s next. And maybe nothing is next. Maybe keeping Ellsbury in center through the end of his contract is plausible. The Yankees do have some center field options, both short and long-term, just in case things don’t work out. Sooner or later the team will have to go in a new direction in center field, and odds are it’ll be before the end of Ellsbury’s contract.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: A.J. Pollock, Aaron Hicks, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Blake Rutherford, Brett Gardner, Bryce Harper, Carlos Gomez, Charlie Blackmon, Clint Frazier, Dustin Fowler, Estevan Florial, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Dyson, Jorge Mateo, Lorenzo Cain, Mason Williams, Tyler Wade

Thoughts on a random Wednesday

February 6, 2013 by Mike 101 Comments

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

We’re now only six days away from pitchers and catchers reporting, the most exciting non-news day of the year. Almost nothing happens that day, all the guys have to do is inform the team they are physically in Florida. Everyone shows up for the first workout the next day. That’s all, it’s symbolic more than anything. But still, hooray baseball.

1. I think that this season, moreso than any other season over the last few years, it will be extremely important for the Yankees to have a strong bench. They’ll need a) a right-handed hitting outfielder, b) a competent pinch-hitter (preferably a lefty), and c) a speedy pinch-runner. They need (a) because everyone in the starting outfield is a lefty, that’s easy enough. They need (b) because the catching tandem is terrible and those guys shouldn’t be allowed to bat in the late innings of close games. Finally, they need (c) because Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, and Travis Hafner are crazy slow and will need to be replaced if they reach base late in close games. The Yankees lost a lot of offense this winter and figure to play many more close games in 2013, so Joe Girardi is going to need weapons on the bench. Not just warm bodies to fill-in during emergency situations, weapons he can deploy strategically.

2. I have this strange feeling Chase Utley will be a Yankee within the next 12 months. There’s a few different ways this could happen too. The Phillies showed last year that if they’re out of it at the trade deadline, they’re willing to move established players for prospects. Utley, 34, will be a free agent next winter as well. Given Travis Hafner’s affinity for the disabled list, I suppose the Yankees could look to acquire the second baseman from Philadelphia to serve as their left-handed DH. If he’s healthy enough at the end of the season — a big if given the last few years — he could be a second base candidate for 2014 should Robinson Cano sign some mammoth contract with the Dodgers next winter. He could also be a DH candidate as well. I dunno, just feels inevitable to me for some reason.

(Mike McGinnis/Getty)
(Mike McGinnis/Getty)

3. Obviously a ton is going to change between now and then, but one players scheduled to hit free agency next winter who really catches my eye is outfielder Carlos Gomez. He just turned 27 in December and hit .260/.305/.463 (105 wRC+) with 19 homers and 37 steals last season. The strikeouts (career 22.3%) and walks (career 5.0%) are a concern, though his defense grades out as well-above-average in center. A player that young with that kind of power-speed combination is very attractive even if his on-base skills stink. I could see him getting B.J. Upton money with another strong year, which probably makes him too pricey for the Yankees. But man, I would love to have him for ages 28-32.

4. All of the prospect rankings come out this time of year and it’s a nice reminder that the Yankees need to knock it out of the park in the draft this summer. They own three of the top 35 picks — all three carry seven-figure slot recommendations as well — and really need to add some quality, high-ceiling players to the system. Grabbing more Cito Culvers and Dante Bichette Juniors ain’t gonna cut it if they truly plan to remain under the luxury tax. They’ve got to max out on those three picks and take the best players possible, forget about trying to save a little draft pool room to use for overslot bonuses later in the draft. The new spending restrictions suck, but the Yankees have what amounts to three first round picks this year and need to capitalize.

Filed Under: Musings Tagged With: Carlos Gomez, Chase Utley

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