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River Ave. Blues » Daniel Murphy

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Daniel Murphy

November 15, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

(David Banks/Getty)

The Yankees current in-house options at first base are questionable at-best. Luke Voit was nothing short of incredible with the team, but crazy things can happen in such small sample sizes (lest we forget Shane Spencer and Kevin Maas), and it seems risky for a contending team to head into the year with him as Plan A. And Greg Bird has a full season’s worth of below-average offense spread across three partial seasons, and has yet to show the ability to stay healthy. That’s not an ideal Plan A (or Plan B for that matter) either.

There are larger holes on the roster, to be sure, but first base feels like a spot that the team should upgrade. And, short of signing Bryce Harper and moving him over to the cold corner, I’m not sure that there’s a better free agent option than Daniel Murphy.

Background

The 33-year-old Murphy was drafted by the Mets way back in 2006, and spent the first ten years of his professional career in that organization. He entered professional baseball as a third baseman, and bounced between there, first, and left field upon his debut, before settling at the keystone in 2011. He has primarily played second since that point, but, with the exception of 2017, he has spent time at multiple positions every year.

This is also the point where I will make note of Murphy’s history of homophobia. Way back in 2015 he justifiably came under fire for saying that he “disagree[s] with the [gay] lifestyle, 100 percent,” in reference to Billy Bean working with the Mets. He was given the opportunity to walk it back several times, but basically doubled-down on his statements, saying that he’d be accepting of a gay teammate, but wouldn’t change his stance on homosexuality. And when he was acquired by the Cubs back in August, he continued to be unapologetic.

I will not get on my soapbox at this juncture, but this is an elephant in the room that cannot be ignored when discussing Murphy’s free agency. And I completely understand how difficult it is to root for such a player.

Offensive Performance

Murphy has made a career out of being a high-contact, moderate power hitter, with intermittent flashes of legitimate power. He hit 25 home runs in 2016, 23 home runs in 2017, and 12 home runs in 91 games this season, so the pop is there – it’s just a matter of how often he can get to it. Let’s take a look at his last three years:

AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR SB K% BB% PA
2016 .347/.390/.595 154 25 5 9.8% 6.0% 582
2017 .322/.384/.543 135 23 2 13.0% 8.8% 593
2018 .299/.336/.454 110 12 3 11.4% 5.7% 351

2016 and 2017 are probably not informative of what to expect going forward. Those were career years, and he’s a 33-year-old that missed a lot of time following microfracture surgery on his right knee. That’s a serious procedure that doesn’t yield a great track record of players coming back to full strength, and I don’t see a reason to expect that he’ll buck the trend. I included those numbers, however, as one does wonder if there are teams out there that will see some manner of potential for a huge bounceback.

That being said, 2018 was basically right in-line with his career norms. Murphy’s a career .299/.344/.458 hitter, with 6.3% walks and 11.9% strikeouts – this is who he is. And the average first baseman hit .255/.335/.450 over the last three years.

Defensive Performance

I’m evaluating Murphy strictly as a first baseman, as that’s the only non-DH position that he should play. He hasn’t played the position extensively since 2009, but he’s spent time there in almost every season. His career numbers there are strong – 4.8 UZR/150 and 13 DRS/150 – albeit spread out over multiple small sample sizes; it’s probably enough to say that he’d be more than competent there, though.

Murphy should never, ever play second base though, outside of a serious emergency. He has simply never been good at the keystone, and he was at his worst there last year (-5.5 UZR and -18 DRS in just 535.1 innings).

Injury History

As I said above, Murphy missed time recovering from microfracture surgery on his right knee. He didn’t make his season debut until June 12, though he was healthy for the remainder of the season.

Murphy is a player that is perpetually banged-up, though he hadn’t missed extensive time since 2011, when an MCL injury ended his season in August. Unfortunately, most of those injuries have been the nagging sort, and almost all of them have been his knees. Moving him out of the middle infield permanently could help sort those out, but there’s a disconcerting history here.

Contract Estimates

Let’s turn to the usual suspects:

  • Jim Bowden (subscription req.) – 2 years, $20 MM ($10 MM AAV)
  • FanGraphs – 2 years, $18 MM ($9 MM AAV)
  • MLBTR – 2 years, $20 MM ($10 MM AAV)

That seems about right for a 1B/DH that profiles as a tick above-average for the position, right? Under such a contract, Murphy would be expected to be a 2 win player or thereabouts, and that’s definitely reasonable.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

In a vacuum, yes. Murphy offers a stark contrast to the majority of the Yankees lineup, as a left-handed hitter that simply doesn’t strikeout. There’s also the potential for a bit more power with a shift into Yankee Stadium, though he tends to hit the ball to all fields so it probably wouldn’t be that big of a jump.

We don’t live in a vacuum, though, and baseball isn’t played in such conditions. There are still folks out there that hold the Aroldis Chapman acquisitions(s) as upsetting due to his domestic violence accusations, and it would be difficult to welcome a bigot into the fold. I believe in second chances, but Murphy’s attitude hasn’t shown any semblance of regret – and I don’t know that I could root for him.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Daniel Murphy, Scouting The Market

Yankees not interested in Daniel Murphy, seeking “more balance” at second base

November 10, 2015 by Mike Leave a Comment

(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)
(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

As soon as Daniel Murphy started smashing home runs in the postseason, it was inevitable the former Mets second baseman would be connected to the Yankees this offseason. They have a need at the position and Murphy put on a show, and this is a “what have you done for me lately” business, so the dots would soon be connected.

After arriving at the GM Meetings yesterday, hipster Brian Cashman told reporters the team is not interested in Murphy as a free agent. They want “more balance” at second base, which is a nice way of saying better defense. From Mark Feinsand:

“I think if we’re going to pursue something, we have two offensive-profile players already at that position,” Cashman said, speaking in broad terms when asked about Murphy. “So if we did any changing there, it would be seeking more balance on both sides of the ball.”

…

“Like anything else with roster management, if there’s opportunity to upgrade and have a more balanced out defense/offense profile, great,” Cashman said. “If not, we feel encouraged by what we saw in September.”

The Yankees have Rob Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley penciled in at second base right now — they’re said to be “leaning toward” using those two next year, but the offseason is young — and they’re basically younger and cheaper versions of Murphy, right? They don’t make contact like Murphy but all three guys are offense first players with suspect defense.

The Mets slapped the qualifying offer on Murphy and I can’t see giving up a first round pick to sign him. Maybe the Yankees would swoop back in later in the offseason after they give up their first rounder for a top free agent — say, Jason Heyward or Zack Greinke — and revisit signing Murphy if his market collapses, but that seems unlikely. Both the signing a top free agent part and Murphy’s market collapsing part.

I’m not a huge believer in Refsnyder but I do think it’s time to give him a chance to sink or swim. He’s going to be 25 in March and his brief cameo in September went well. I wouldn’t call it likely, but it’s possible Refsnyder and Murphy are both ~110 wRC+ hitters next year with shaky glovework. Murphy is a solid player who would make many teams better. Given the cost and their available internal options, I don’t see him as a great fit for the Yankees.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Daniel Murphy

2013 Winter Meetings Day Two Open Thread

December 10, 2013 by Mike 135 Comments

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

By Winter Meetings standards, Monday was pretty slow. Most of the top free agents have signed already, and until we get some resolution regarding Masahiro Tanaka, the pitching market will remain relatively quiet. The Yankees are still looking for a starter even after re-signing Hiroki Kuroda, plus they need some bullpen help and either a second or third baseman. Oh, and general depth. That’s always necessary.

Here are yesterday’s Yankees-related rumors. The most notable thing we learned is that New York’s asking price for Brett Gardner is “through (the) roof” while rival executives think he’ll fetch a number three starter at best. His value is greater to the Yankees than it is anyone else, really. We’ll keep track of the day’s rumors right here, so make sure you check back often. All times at ET.

  • 9:18am: The Yankees want to import two relievers and they’ve been discussing Joaquin Benoit internally. Matt looked at him earlier today. [Bob Nightengale]
  • 5:46pm: The Yankees have not yet shown much interest in left-hander Paul Maholm as a back of the rotation stopgap. [McCullough]
  • 5:39pm: Unsurprisingly, Ichiro has a “limited trade market, maybe very limited.” The Yankees want to move him and keep Gardner. [Heyman]
  • 3:00pm: The Yankees are one of three teams to inquire about Dustin Ackley. He’s a buy-low second base candidate. Like the idea but not sure how salvageable he is. [Jon Heyman]
  • 2:08pm: “Signing one might be easier than trading for one,” said Cashman, referring to the market for starting pitchers. Not surprising given the team’s trade chips. [Chad Jennings]
  • 1:57pm: Cashman confirmed other teams have inquired about Gary Sanchez, J.R. Murphy, and Ivan Nova in addition to Gardner and others. [Andy McCullough]
  • 1:49pm: “I have thrown a lot of trade proposals out there, as well as conversations with free agents,” said Cashman while adding he’s unsure if these talks will actually lead to anything. [Barbarisi]
  • 1:38pm: The Yankees have not had any trade talks about their spare outfielders (i.e. Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki) with the Giants. [John Shea]
  • 1:28pm: Brian Cashman called Kevin Youkilis’ agent to gauge his interest in returning, but Youkilis wants to play closer to his home in California. Funny, I want him to do that too. [Jack Curry]
  • 12:17pm: The Yankees do have interest in re-signing Mark Reynolds. Alfonso Soriano is the team’s only right-handed power hitter, so Reynolds would fit in a limited role. [David Waldstein]
  • 11:52am: The Yankees and others have interest in Danny Espinosa, but the Nationals are balking at moving him right now. I looked at him as a buy-low target back in August. [Ken Rosenthal]
  • 11:45am: There is nothing going on between the Yankees and Mets about Daniel Murphy at the moment. I looked at him as a potential trade target last month. [Andrew Marchand]
  • 8:24am: The Yankees are “very much interested” in Michael Young and have also checked in on Juan Uribe, Eric Chavez, Matt Garza, and Ubaldo Jimenez. Talks with Garza and Ubaldo are not serious. [Erik Boland & Steven Marcus]
  • The Yankees did contact the Reds about Homer Bailey. It’s unclear what they were offering or what Cincinnati was seeking in return. Gardner makes an awful lot of sense here. Two underrated players both one year away from free agency and the Reds needs a leadoff man/center fielder. [Dan Barbarisi]
  • Other clubs do not think highly of New York’s outfield prospects and that limits their ability to make trades. “The Yankees have no upper-level talent,” said a Cubs official after the Yankees asked about Jeff Samardzija. [Joel Sherman]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League, Open Thread Tagged With: 2013 Winter Meetings, Daniel Murphy, Danny Espinosa, Dustin Ackley, Eric Chavez, Gary Sanchez, Homer Bailey, Ivan Nova, J.R. Murphy, Joaquin Benoit, Juan Uribe, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Matt Garza, Michael Young, Paul Maholm, San Francisco Giants, Ubaldo Jimenez

Scouting The Trade Market: Daniel Murphy

November 20, 2013 by Mike 53 Comments

The Yankees have an awful lot roster questions to answer this winter, including a bunch on the infield. Robinson Cano is a free agent, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter missed all of 2013 due to injury for all intents and purposes, and Alex Rodriguez may or may not be suspended in the coming weeks. There’s not a single sure thing on the infield at the moment.

New York has reportedly agreed to re-sign Brendan Ryan as insurance for Jeter, but they’ll need more help than that. They need to figure out a plan at third base regardless of what happens with A-Rod because even if his suspension is overturned, they can’t count on him to stay healthy for a full season. The Yankees have reportedly shown interest in bringing back Eric Chavez to provide depth on the corner infield spots, but the trade market could offer some help too.

According to Andy Martino, the Mets are open to trading infielder Daniel Murphy, mostly because his style of hitting doesn’t fit the organizational philosophy. I’m guessing this is a “if someone makes a nice offer, we’ll move him” situation rather than a “oh my goodness we have to dump this guy” situation. Either way, should the Yankees even have interest? Let’s dig in.

The Pros

  • Murphy, 28, is an excellent contact hitter who consistently hits to all fields produces solid batting averages. He hit .286 with a .315 BABIP in 697 plate appearances this past season and is a career .290 hitter with a .320 BABIP in a little more than 2,400 plate appearances as a big leaguer. His strikeout (13.6% in 2013 and 13.0% career) and contact (88.5% in 2013 and 88.2% career) rates are both well-above-average.
  • Believe it or not, Murphy is a borderline elite base-runner. He stole a career-high 23 bases in 26 attempts (88.5%) in 2013 and is 42-for-56 (75.0%) in his career. Murphy also took the extra base (first-to-third on a single, etc.) an insane 61% of the time this past season (49% career). Some nice hidden value there.
  • Murphy offers some versatility. He came up through the minors as a third baseman but moved to second in deference to David Wright. The Mets have also had him dabble in left field and at first base. The left field thing was a disaster but he can play the three non-shortstop infield positions in a pinch.
  • Matt Swartz projects Murphy to earn a reasonable $5.8M in his second trip through arbitration this winter. He will remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2015 before becoming a free agent in two offseasons.

The Cons

  • The contact and batting average comes with no walks and little power. Murphy drew a walk in just 4.6% of plate appearances in 2013 (6.1% career) and his career-high 13 homers came with a below-average .129 ISO (.134 career). Yankee Stadium will help as a left-handed batter, but not a ton because he goes the other way so often.
  • Although his average doesn’t really suffer, Murphy does have a big platoon split. He hit .273/.292/.324 (73 wRC+) against lefties and .292/.331/.459 (122 wRC+) against righties this past season, and for his career it’s .274/.301/.375 (86 wRC+) against lefties and .295/.344/.441 (115 wRC+) against righties.
  • Murphy can play all over the field, but that doesn’t make him good defensively. The left field experiment was a disaster, as I said, and the various defensive stats (-26 DRS, -13.3 UZR, -12 Total Zone) indicate he stinks at second. The sample sizes at first and third are too small to take any numbers seriously, but his defensive reputation isn’t good.
  • Injuries have been a bit of a problem. Murphy missed just about all Spring Training this past season with an intercostal strain, and he also missed close to two months in both 2010 and 2011 with MCL sprains in his knees — right knee in 2010, left in 2011.

The Yankees and Mets have not made a trade involving a player of Murphy’s caliber since the David Justice-Robin Ventura swap in December 2001. They’ve gotten together for a couple of minor deals involving relievers (Mike Stanton, Armando Benitez) since then, but nothing major. This isn’t a Yankees-Red Sox thing though — I don’t think either Brian Cashman or Sandy Alderson would balk at a trade that made sense for their team just because it involved dealing with their crosstown rival.

Infielders traded two years prior to free agency in recent years include Jed Lowrie (Astros to Athletics), Aaron Hill, and Mike Aviles (Blue Jays to Indians). Lowrie (and a reliever) was traded for six years of Chris Carter and two okay prospects. Hill was mostly a salary dump for a year and a half of Kelly Johnson. Aviles (and a prospect) was dealt for an iffy reliever. Lowrie probably fits best a comparison but it’s not perfect — he had a much longer injury history, he was more productive when healthy, and he could legitimately play shortstop. Seems like it’ll take at least two pieces to get it done though, including one that is Major League ready. That sounds like it’s in the ballpark.

The Mets have a bunch of needs, specifically in the corner outfield and bullpen. They’d also need a second baseman to replace Murphy. The Yankees could offer a smorgasbord of fringy big league ready guys like Zoilo Almonte (outfielder!), Dellin Betances or Preston Claiborne (reliever!), and David Adams or Corban Joseph (second baseman!), something like that, but that package is more quantity than quality. Who knows, maybe Alderson would take it, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Murphy makes a ton of sense for the Yankees as a part-time corner infielder/DH would could step right into the lineup everyday at first, second, or third in case of injury, but finding common ground with the Mets figures to be tough.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Daniel Murphy, Scouting The Market

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