Patrick at NPB Tracker rounds up a series of comments from members of the Hanshin Tigers front office, saying that they’d be interested in bringing Hideki Matsui back to Japan after his contract with the Yankees is up after the season. I’m sure the Japanese Leagues have tampering rules, which is probably why the comments are made in a roundabout way. Despite how productive and popular has Matsui has been for the Yanks, there’s zero chance they’ll resign him after the year. The fan in me would much rather see him go out a celebrated hero in his home country than watch him bounce around from team to team as a DH/lefty pinch hitter.
Hideki’s final pinstriped season
Every time I think Hideki Matsui is done, he comes back to life. Last week, Matsui went 0 for 5 and left five runners on base as the Yanks fell to the Phillies in extras. At that point, he was hitting an anemic .241/.325/.429, and I was looking forward to the return of Xavier Nady as a way to eliminate some of the Matsui at-bats.
But since then, Matsui, the streakiest of streakiest hitters, has turned it back on. In 19 at-bats spanning five games and 22 plate appearances, Matsui has hit .421/.500/.895 with two home runs and three doubles. He has raised his season numbers to .263/.347/.487 and is outperforming the AL DH average OPS by .057 points.
Despite this recent uptick in performance, it’s highly doubtful that Hideki Matsui, a free agent this winter, will return to the Yankees, and I have to wonder whether his overall future in Major League Baseball is in doubt. Today, MLBTR points us to a Joel Sherman column on Matsui. While we are often skeptical of Sherman’s work, I think he’s onto something here:
The Yanks have long been concerned about the inflexibility of their roster due to having too many DH types, such as exists this year with Matsui, Jorge Posada Jorge Posada and Xavier Nady (if he returns from his elbow injury). Yankee officials envision a 2010 in which Posada takes more at-bats as the DH, and in which Joe Girardi could better rest everyday players such as Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira without losing their bats.
In spring training, Matsui told me that he prefers to stay a Yankee, but is not wedded to the Yanks and would consider other teams here if he decided to keep playing. He is a total pro and – when healthy – a clutch, productive hitter. But with his lingering knee issues that guarantee he cannot play left field with any regularity – if at all — I wonder if any team would be willing to invest even a few million on Matsui. That is part of the death of the traditional DH.
Poorly constructed sentences aside, Sherman raises some valid concerns the Yankees have for next season. In Jeter, Posada and A-Rod, they have three key players under contract and over 35 next year, and to keep them healthy, the team will have to make use of a rotating DH spot. Meanwhile, the Yankees are rather publicly committed to getting younger and more athletic. Resigning Hideki Matsui isn’t part of that equation.
If Matsui and the Yanks are destined for a post-season divorce, will another Major League team pick him up? When he’s on, he can hit with the best of them, but he will be an old 36 next June. With the market as depressed as it currently is, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matsui jobless or back in Japan come April 2010. His will have been a good run, and while it’s not over yet, 2009 is in all likelihood his Yankee swan song.
The extraordinarily streaky Hideki Matsui
This is, by all practical views, Hideki Matsui’s last season as a New York Yankee. Much celebrated when he joined the team in 2003, Matsui became a fan favorite during his first contract, putting up good numbers all around. However, since he signed his new contract following the 2005 season he has played just one full season, missing significant time in 2006 and 2008 (wrist and then knees). The Yankees were hoping to get some solid production out of him from the DH slot during his final season. So far, it’s had its ups and downs.
Matsui started off slow, leaving everyone wondering whether he was done. He did keep walking, which mitigated the situation a bit, but his batting average stood below .200 until April 19. Matsui then surged, getting his BA to .295 by April 28 (small samples work wonders), while pulling his OBP over .400 and his SLG over .500. Of course, this was as much a product of small samples as his poor start to the season. He cooled off considerably since then, his OBP dropping from a peak of .419 to .325 the other day.
This, it seems, is what the team will get from Matsui in his final season. There will be ups, and there will be downs. If the past two games are any indication, Matsui could be righting himself again. He was 4 for 9 in those games, hitting a double and two home runs. If he can just keep this up until Nady gets back, it would be a huge plus for the team. Then, if he cools off again as he did for most of May, he won’t be doing the team as much harm because they can slot Nady into the DH spot.
What really strikes me as odd is that Matsui has hit better — considerably better — against lefties this season than righties. Against the latter he’s .257/.339/.455, while against southpaws he/s .356/.356/.564. Of course, he’s only face lefties in 45 of his 160 plate appearances. This performance does not lend itself to a DH platoon between he and Nady, who also mashes lefties. Then again, it’s probably something that will even itself out as the season progresses.
I’ve always been a Matsui fan. He’s been one of the Yankees in recent years who I’ve really wanted to see in big spots. The YES commentators always point out his demonstrated ability to get the runner home from third with less than two outs. And it always seems they get a big hit from him just when they need it. It’s sad, then, to see him in his home run trot, plodding around the bases. He’s only 35, but he looks much older than that running the bases.
We can only hope that Matsui’s knees hold up for the duration of the season. Even if his streaks persist throughout the season, the Yankees should have bench options, Nady especially, to spell him during his down times. Because when he’s good, he’s damn good. That we’ve seen in the past two games.
(And no, there’s no real point to this post. It’s just after spending all of yesterday talking about pitching in general and Joba specifically, I wanted to change the tenor. Plus, we all love Hideki, right?)
Wanted: Outfield depth
When the Yankees and A’s finally get around to playing what is now a two-game set in the Bronx, the series will constitute something of an audition. Whether we like it or not, the Yankee brass will be watching Matt Holliday as he takes his first trip through the Junior Circuit.
Holliday, a career. .318/.385/.549, will be a free agent at the end of the year. He came to Oakland in a trade in November and is attempting to prove that he can hit outside the cozy confines of Coors Field. Yankee Stadium, wind and all, seems like the perfect place for it.
Outside of being an off-season catch for whichever team wants to pony up Boras Bucks for an outfielder turning 30 next January, Holliday may be a trade-deadline acquisition. If the A’s are out of the AL West race by then — and right now, there’s every indication they’ll be among the leaders in that division — Billy Beane could look to get some return for his Holliday investment.
Now this is all well and good, but what does it have to do with the Yankees? Well, two weeks into the season, and the Yanks’ once-vaunted outfield depth has all but disappeared. After we played will-they-or-won’t-they all winter with a trade of Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, the Yanks lost Nady to some freak accident barely a week into the season.
On Monday evening, the Yanks revealed, well, not much of anything about Nady. The right fielder has gone for numerous tests and second, third and fourth opinions on his elbow. The team is holding out hope that he can rehab it and be back on the field this season. If he has to go under the knife, he won’t play again in 2009, and even if he doesn’t need surgery, his return could be months off.
“We’re ultimately trying to determine if there is an opportunity for a non-surgical rehab because it’s really one of two ways: that way or if you get him cut,” Brian Cashman said to reporters. “If you get him cut, it’s a scary proposition.”
The loss of Nady wouldn’t be unbearable if Hideki Matsui will up to speed, but Matsui isn’t. In fact, there’s no guarantee Matsui will ever be up to speed again. After getting his second knee surgery in as many years, Matsui is off to a slow start. While he’s getting on base at a great clip, he’s just 6 for 31 this season and looks positively anemic on the basepaths. He’s definitely done in the outfield, and last week, he had fluid drained from his surgically repaired knee.
The Yankees, rightfully so, are concerned about Matsui’s health. “The bottom line is that he’s had surgery on either knee the last two years, and you see how at times he’s struggling out there, so yeah it’s a concern,” Cashman said. “He came up with a big hit for us yesterday late in the game which was much needed for him and for us. But yeah, we’re going to have to keep our eye on him, there’s no doubt about that.”
Three weeks ago, the Yankees had too many outfield/DH types for their nine lineup spots. Now, they’re in a situation where Melky Cabrera is their fourth outfielder, and they are a Hideki Matsui injury away from needing a DH. You can never have too much depth.
A-Rod Update
How about some good news before we end this downer injury round-up? According to the AP — who apparently has one reporter assigned to simply watch A-Rod’s rehab workouts — Alex Rodriguez is progressing apace. He hit homers on 10 of his 75 swings today and fielded around 30 groundballs. He is doing some outfield running but hasn’t yet run the bases. When he can slide, he’ll be close to a return.
In a way, tonight’s rain-out was good for the Yankees. It’s just one fewer game they need to play with Cody Ransom at third, and when the game is made up later in the year, A-Rod should be in the lineup.
Yanks recall Miranda
Via Marc Carig, the Yanks have recalled 1B Juan Miranda, putting David Robertson on the Chris Britton Memorial Shuttle back to Scranton. Miranda makes the most sense as a replacement for Xavier Nady right now, because he can backup Mark Texiera at first while keeping Nick Swisher in the outfield. He’s also a nice bat off the bench, but he won’t help much agaisnt southpaws. Carig also notes that Tex feels “ten times better” following yesterday’s cortisone shot, but that Hideki Matsui has fluid in his left knee that will need to be drained.
Even Japan doesn’t want Kei Igawa back
In 2006, Japan stunned the international baseball community when they claimed the WBC title. They’re back with a vengeance to defend their crown, and while many players — the pitchers especially — view this tournament as a potential audition for the U.S. Major Leagues, the Land of the Rising Sun is mostly concerned with capture another title. While the rehabbing Hideki Matsui won’t play in the tournament, he is wanted for it. His fellow Japanese Yankee isn’t so lucky. When asked about Kei Igawa’s omission from the team, one of the Japanese reporters assigned to the team said “They think he is not so good.” I don’t think Brian Cashman is going to voice much objection to those sentiments. (Hat tip to PeteAbe for this amusing anecdote.)
How will Girardi handle the 2009 lineup?
One of our bigger complaints about Joe Girardi in 2009 was that he tinkered with the lineup a bit too much. Some of this was due to injury, but other times it was based on match-ups. While playing to the strengths of your roster is generally favorable, some of Girardi’s moves weren’t defensible with split data. Instead, it seemed he subscribed to the “sit lefties against lefties” mode of managerial thought. Unfortunately, that’s not always the best way to go.
We knew going into last season that Jason Giambi wouldn’t play 162 games. He’d have been lucky to play 150 games, especially since he was the primary first baseman. He ended up with 142, and only a few of his off-days were due to small injuries. For the most part, he sat against lefties, which caused some frustration at RAB. Jason does hit from the left side of the plate, but he holds his own well enough against lefties, posting identical splits in batting average and OBP in 2009. His slugging was a bit higher against righties, but that’s no reason to sit him against southpaws.
This issue was exacerbated by Giambi’s normal spot in the lineup, No. 5. The normal replacements at first, Wilson Betemit and Richie Sexson, weren’t going to slot in there. When Giambi sat, the guys at the bottom of the order had to move up. The problem was that the Yanks rarely had a player who could hit adequately behind A-Rod. This meant the order juggled when Giambi sat. I can’t imagine that being good for anyone.
Lesson: Don’t get into a platoon situation with a player at the heart of your order. It doesn’t appear as though this will be an issue this year, though one of the bounceback candidates will have to step up and take that slot. The top four are basically set in stone: Damon, Jeter, then Teixeira and A-Rod. A healthy Matsui could take the spot, as could Jorge Posada if his shoulder holds up. Even Robinson Cano could be a candidate.
Two guys who likely won’t get a chance to hit fifth: Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher. That’s a good thing, because those are two guys you could see platooned to some degree or another. Let’s check out their recent and career splits.
Last year, Swisher was equally crappy against lefties and righties, as you might expect. He had a much better eye against lefties, putting a .197 batting average against a .359 OBP (.162 ISO — .094 ISO against righties). His slugging against righties was a bit higher, but the ISO mark — slugging minus batting average to cancel out the singles — was along the same lines, .189 against lefties, .192 against righties). Career he’s a .240/.338/.459 hitter against righties, .253/.396/.429 against lefties. So it looks like if you’re going to platoon Swisher, you want him hitting against lefties.
(His 2007 stats were skewed heavily towards lefties, for what it’s worth.)
Problem there is that Xavier Nady has long been known as a lefty masher. In 2005 he posted a .700 OPS against righties vs. a .852 mark against lefties. In 2006 the split was even more pronounced, with a .969 OPS against lefties vs. a .736 OPS against righties. However, that started to change in 2007. In 366 plate appearances against righties Nady posted a .802 OPS, while posting a .819 mark against lefties. His .805 OPS against righties in 2008 might signal that he’s developed over the years and could be fine as an everyday player.
What does this mean for the Yankees lineup in 2009? It might mean Hideki Matsui gets in on the platoon situation. He has a career .870 OPS against righties vs. a .803 OPS against lefties. This includes splits of .815 vs. .751 in 2008 and .885 vs. .821 in 2007. Hideki could then take his off-days against lefties, allowing both Swisher and Nady to be in the lineup. Against righties, either Swisher or Nady could sit.
Of course, given the lesson posted above, this would disqualify Hideki from the fifth slot. Well, at least in my mind. Maybe I’m overthinking this, but I’d far rather see a consistent lineup one through five, day in and day out. Since Jorge won’t be in the lineup every day, that leaves Cano to round out the heart of the order. Slotting him fifth would allow the Yanks to trot out Damon-Jeter-Teixeira-Arod-Cano for almost every game. I don’t know about anyone else, but I feel more comfortable when the lineup fluctuations come at the bottom, not in the heart.
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