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Free Agent Updates: Lester, Scherzer, Sandoval, Shields, Robertson, Headley, McCarthy

November 4, 2014 by Mike 337 Comments

The Yankees officially extended the $15.3M qualifying offer to David Robertson yesterday but declined to make the offer to Hiroki Kuroda. If Robertson signs elsewhere, the Yankees will receive a supplemental first round pick as compensation. Hopefully that pick will be able to pitch high-leverage innings in 2015. Anyway, here are some various free agent updates and rumors, courtesy of George King, Mark Feinsand, Jon Heyman, and Brendan Kuty.

The Yankees “have no plans to pursue” big name free agents Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Pablo Sandoval this winter. There’s been talk the team would stay away from the top of the free agent market, but this could always be posturing. The Yankees don’t have much to gain by saying they’ll pursue these guys. It only creates more leverage for the players.
David Robertson said things are “quiet on the front” when asked if he and the Yankees have had any talks about a new contract. At least six teams already have interest in the right-hander, which is not surprising. Big market contenders like the Tigers, Dodgers, and Nationals all need help in the late innings.
The Yankees are focused on re-signing Chase Headley and have already started contract negotiations. That doesn’t mean they’re close to a deal, of course. Headley has said he’s open to returning to New York as long as he isn’t a part-time player. The presence of Alex Rodriguez may complicate things.
In addition to Headley, the Yankees also want to re-sign Brandon McCarthy and they plan to “aggressively” engage him in contract talks. There’s no word if the two sides are currently discussing a deal. McCarthy is arguably the fourth best free agent starter behind Lester, Scherzer, and Shields, so he’ll be a popular target this winter.
David Huff‘s agent Jim McDowell has spoken to the Yankees about next season and said the “feedback was really positive.” Huff is not a free agent; he’s arbitration-eligible for the first time and is projected to earn only $700k next year. He’s still a non-tender candidate despite the affordable projected salary.

Joe’s obligatory off-season wish list

November 4, 2014 by Joe Pawlikowski 366 Comments

Let’s cut to the chase: The Yankees need help this off-season. Even after doling out four large contracts last year, they need even more help. With free agents officially allowed to sign with any club, the off-season has begun. What better way to kick it off than with a RAB wish list.

Here we go, in priority order.

Priority #1: Shortstop

For the third straight off-season, shortstop is a position of need for the Yankees. For the past two off-seasons the presence of Derek Jeter has prevented the Yankees from addressing that need in any real way. They now have the opportunity to improve the position. They need it, too: they tied Detroit for lowest OPS at SS in the AL, by 74 points. Jeter’s poor defense is also an easy fix.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts that the Yankees will sign Hanley Ramirez.

In a way, it’s tough to see. Ramirez, 31 in December, will command a six- or seven-year deal, probably comparable to the one the Yankees gave Jacoby Ellsbury last off-season. Will they pony up again, for a player who missed nearly half of 2013 and about 20 percent of 2014 with injuries?

Last off-season the Yanks spent big on two position players entering their age-30 seasons. It’s tough to see them going down that path again.

They could trade for Troy Tulowitzki, but he’s signed to a six-year, $118 million deal. The Rockies won’t just give him away, either. He, too, has missed plenty of time due to injury in the last three years. So while his remaining contract is more palatable than what Ramirez will command, the cost in players will make acquiring him less desirable.

To improve production at shortstop, they don’t need too much. There’s no direction to go but up — unless they plan to install Brendan Ryan as the everyday SS. The challenge is finding a player who can provide that kind of upgrade at a reasonable cost in dollars or players.

Free agent choice: Stephen Drew. Yes, he was bad in pinstripes. Yes, he might be better with an actual spring training. He can play defense and has hit well in the past. He’ll also get nothing more than a make-good contract, again, so he’s a potential bargain. He’s certainly a better bet than Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera, who will both get bigger contracts and are both not very good on defense.

Trade choice: Didi Gregorius. Not many teams have spare shortstops, but the Diamondbacks do have a number of youngsters. It seems they have the most interest in trading Gregorius, which is sensible given his service time and mediocre bat. But again, that bat is considerably better than what the Yankees produced at SS in 2014, and plays seemingly average defense, there could be a match.

Priority #2: Starting pitching

The following starting pitchers on the 40-man roster, with MLB experience, will be back with the Yankees next year: CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Masahiro Tanaka, Chase Whitley, Shane Greene, Bryan Mitchell, David Phelps. There is also Ivan Nova, but he might not be back until the All-Star break following Tommy John surgery.

That’s not exactly a group you can rely on. Of those eight, five spent significant time on the DL in 2014. Whitley is not someone you want starting in anything other than an emergency situation. Mitchell has what, one start? Greene might be good as a fifth starter, but the Yanks need guys ahead of him.

It seems pretty clear, then, that the Yankees need to upgrade at starting pitcher. They might want to do so in a major way, too.

Step One: Re-sign McCarthy. Whatever went on between McCarthy and Larry Rothschild worked. McCarthy enjoyed his time in NY and thinks the two sides are a great fit. Get this done, and get another solid starter in the rotation.

Step Two: Sign Jon Lester. MLBTR predicts the Yankees sign Scherzer, and that’s a possibility. But Lester has AL East experience, is a lefty, and doesn’t come with a draft pick price tag. Competition for his services will be high, but the Yankees should be right at the top of the pack.

Priority #3: Another infielder

Relying on Alex Rodriguez to play even 81 games at third base is a mistake. They could start him there and put Martin Prado at second base, moving Prado to 3B and calling up Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela to play 2B when A-Rod gets hurt. But it might be best to plan on A-Rod playing no third base and deepening the infield corps.

We learned recently that the Yankees have begun negotiations with Chase Headley, and that makes plenty of sense. With him manning the hot corner, and Prado at 2B, the Yankees have strengthened the infield considerably without even addressing shortstop. A modest upgrade there, and some improvement from Teixeira, will go a long way to improving the team’s most glaring 2014 weakness.

What about Refsnyder? Prado is versatile, and has covered third base and the corner outfield positions in the past. Should the Yankees face an injury there, he can slide over and make room for Refsnyder. The idea isn’t to block him — he needs a chance to prove himself — but instead to create a strong starting corps and let Refsnyder act as depth.

Priority #4: Bullpen

The Royals proved what Yankees fans have known forever: a lockdown bullpen can carry an otherwise unremarkable team. Yet rarely will a team go through a season with three lockdown guys not getting hurt or overworked. The Royals got lucky. The Yankees need options.

Step One: Re-sign David Robertson, whether to the qualifying offer or a multi-year deal. He’s proven his mettle in New York, and the Yankees could use a closer like him.

Step Two: Sign Andrew Miller. Going into the season with a bullpen consisting of Robertson, Miller, Dellin Betances, Jacob Lindgren, Adam Warren, and Shawn Kelley will provide them with a deep core, allowing them to test guys like Jose Ramirez and maybe even Manny Banuelos.

Even after a busy off-season in 2013, the Yankees need even more in order to avoid missing the postseason for a third consecutive season. If they insist on keeping payroll even with 2014, then they have no shot. If they open the purse strings and expand payroll to near-Dodgers levels, then they could very well surpass their AL East foes.

This isn’t the only plan, but it’s one that helps address the Yankees needs without getting into the $300 million range. The Drew idea won’t be popular, but if it means not signing Hanley to a huge deal and having enough money to sign a top tier starting pitcher, isn’t that worthwhile?

ALCS Pitching Preview: Max Scherzer

October 17, 2012 by Mike 25 Comments

The season is officially on the line tonight, as the Yankees are one loss away from an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Tigers in the ALCS. CC Sabathia will be on the mound on regular rest and that’s exactly who the Bombers want out there, but pitching hasn’t been the problem. The hitting has been, and tonight the batters will see hard-throwing right-hander Max Scherzer.

Scherzer, 28, went to the Tigers in the trade that brought Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, and he’s shaken off concerns about his durability by throwing at least 185 innings in each of the last three seasons. He’s got a little A.J. Burnett in him in the sense that he’s enigmatic and is more hittable than his stuff indicates he should be, but Scherzer is still pretty good. He just happens to be the fourth best starting pitcher in his own rotation.

2012 Performance vs. Yankees

Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	Str
Apr 29	DET	@	NYY	L,2-6	L(1-3)	4.2	7	3	3	7	4	1	0	7.77	28	119	62

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/17/2012.

Just the one ugly start back in April, that’s it. Andruw Jones went 2-for-2 with a homer and a walk off the bench in that game, that’s how long ago it was. Those seven walks are a career-high for Scherzer, who struggled big time in April before pitching very well the rest of the season. Despite only the one meeting this year, both sides are certainly familiar with each other though after the ALDS last season and various regular season matchups (four total, to be exact) since the trade that brought Scherzer to the AL.

Pitch Selection (via Brooks Baseball)

Scherzer is a three-pitch pitcher who acts like two two-pitch pitchers. Right-handers get the fastball and slider while lefties get the fastball and changeup. That’s pretty much it, he’s very straight forward. The fastball usually sits comfortably in the mid-90s, but Scherzer has been battling some shoulder fatigue lately and he’s been sitting the low-90s more often than not. We really don’t know how much that will help the hitters if it continues tonight, but I can’t imagine it’s a bad thing for the Yankees.

Performance & Results

	TBF	wOBA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB%
vs. RHB	351	0.258	2.52	34.8%	4.0%	37.9%	44.2%	18.0%	13.2%
vs. LHB	436	0.360	3.93	25.0%	10.6%	35.4%	39.4%	25.5%	10.2%

Unlike Justin Verlander yesterday, Scherzer has a significant platoon split. The guy eats up right-handers but has his struggled against left-handers because he doesn’t strike them out nearly as often and will walk them more frequently as well. It’s worth noting that some poor ball-in-play luck (.378 vs. 273 BABIP) plays a part in the huge split.

Regardless, it goes without saying that the Yankees have to take advantage of that, perhaps by again sitting Alex Rodriguez in favor of Eric Chavez even though neither guy is really hitting. Joe Girardi could trot out a lineup with only two true right-handed hitters — Russell Martin and Eduardo Nunez/Jayson Nix — and those guys could easily bat eighth and ninth. Last night’s ninth inning mini-rally was encouraging if nothing else, and today the Yankees have a chance to build on it and actually generate some offense by stacking lefties against Scherzer.

2011 ALDS: Previewing Max Scherzer

October 2, 2011 by Mike 20 Comments

When we previewed Doug Fister yesterday, I mentioned that he had a pretty loose connection to the Yankees. Max Scherzer’s connection to New York is much more ironclad. The 27-year-old right-hander was one of the seven players involved in the three-team trade that brought Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, though he went from the Diamondbacks to the Tigers. Scherzer will be charged with getting his team back in the series this afternoon following their Game One loss.

Performance

Scherzer started the year as Detroit’s number two starter behind Justin Verlander, but he basically pitched his way out of that role by posting a 4.90 ERA (~4.40 FIP) through his first 18 starts. That’s part of the reason why went out and traded for Fister. Scherzer finished well, pitching to a 3.89 ERA (~3.80 FIP) in his final 15 starts.

Always a high strikeout guy, Scherzer’s strikeout rate decreased for the third straight season, down to a still stellar 8.03 K/9. He’s gotten the walks under control (2.58 BB/9) but is a fly ball guy (40.3% grounders). I guess the best way to describe Scherzer is enigmatic; he had 20 starts of two runs or less, but also nine with five runs or more.

Pitch Selection

(via Texas Leaguers and FanGraphs)

Scherzer is basically two two-pitch pitchers. He’ll rely on the fastball and slider against righties, and then the fastball and changeup against lefties. All three offerings have been essentially average this year (not much difference between ±0.5 runs from average per 100 pitches and zero), but the pure velocity of his fastball and the ten mile an hour separation between the heat and soft stuff make him tough to handle. Some deception in his delivery, courtesy of one of the most violent head whacks you’ll ever see, helps his cause. Scherzer is definitely one of those guys with better stuff than results, but power repertoires always seem to play up this time of year.

Pitching Pattern

(via FanGraphs)

It’s all fastball, all the time. Even when he’s ahead in the count, there’s still better than a 50-50 chance that Scherzer will go to his heat. I guess when you throw that hard, you should be proud of your fastball. [/Flaherty’d] Scherzer has been quite a bit better at home than on the road, and I’m guessing that’s at least part of the reason why they scheduled him to pitch Game Three in Detroit. The weather threw a wrench into that, so perhaps the Yankees benefit. The good news is that they were the third best fastball hitting team in baseball this year, so Scherzer plays right to their strengths.

Mad Max

April 3, 2011 by Stephen Rhoads 12 Comments

Max Scherzer (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

This afternoon the Tigers will attempt to avoid being swept by the first-place Yankees (never too soon to flaunt that) when they send right-hander Max Scherzer to the bump against Phil Hughes. Scherzer is an interesting story in terms of health, development and projection. Originally drafted by the Cardinals out of high school in the 43rd round of the 2003 Amateur Draft, Scherzer declined to sign with St. Louis and ended up going to the University of Missouri. When he was drafted again in 2006 his stock had improved a great deal, and the Diamondbacks took Scherzer with the 11th pick of the 1st round. Scherzer debuted in the minors in 2007 and on the whole pitched well, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings, walking 3.9 batters per nine, and posting a 2.87 ERA over 106.2 innings. As David Golebiewski noted, Baseball America named Scherzer the fourth-best prospect in the Diamondbacks system after the 2007 season, a system that at the time included Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson.

In 2008 Scherzer didn’t make the team out of Spring Training but didn’t stay in AAA for long. The Diamondbacks brought him up in late April. Scherzer came in on relief of Edgar Gonzalez and pitched splendidly, not allowing a single baserunner over 4.1 innings and striking out 7 batters. The Diamondbacks responded by slotting him in the rotation the next time around and he made three starts, throwing 15 innings of 3.00 ERA ball and striking out 16. However in late May lefty Doug Davis returned to the Diamondbacks rotation after recovering from thyroid surgery. In doing so, he claimed Scherzer’s rotation spot and sent Scherzer to the bullpen.

Scherzer pitched in the bullpen for a solid month before the Diamondbacks sent him down to Triple A on June 13th to rebuild his arm strength. Unfortunately, Scherzer only made one outing before going to the disabled list with shoulder fatigue. He didn’t return for nearly a month, but when he did he looked like the Scherzer of old. The Diamondbacks rewarded his recovery with a late August promotion, and he made 6 starts to end the season in the D-Backs rotation. He hurled 25 innings over those 6 starts, with an ERA of 3.24, striking 33 batters, walking 7 and allowing 3 home runs.

In 2009 the Diamondbacks gave Scherzer a rotation slot, but he began the year on the disabled list with shoulder tightness. When he returned to the rotation fully healthy he didn’t disappoint. Making 30 starts, Scherzer pitched to a 4.12 ERA and 3.87 FIP over 170.2 innings. He boasted an elite strikeout rate at 9.19 K/9 and his walk rate was a respectable 3.33 BB/9. Despite shoulder injuries, and getting bumped back and forth between the minors and the majors, the bullpen and the rotation, Scherzer was blossoming into a very solid starter.

Yet the growth he exhibited in 2009 ultimately meant that his time in Arizona would come to a close. That winter the Diamondbacks shipped him off to Detroit as a part of the three-team trade that saw Curtis Granderson come to New York, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Dan Schlereth go to Detroit, and Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson go to Arizona. Unfortunately for Detroit, Max Scherzer got off to an absolutely horrific start. In 8 starts and 42 innings he pitched to a 7.29 ERA, allowing 54 hits and walking 16 batters, striking out only 26 batters. He allowed nine (!) home runs, and batters hit .323/.392/.563 against him. Clearly something was wrong with Scherzer, and the Tigers sent him down to AAA in mid-May.

He spent only two weeks in AAA, but whatever he tinkered with clearly worked. When he returned he faced the Oakland A’s and was dominant, going 5.2 innings, walking 4 batters and striking out 14. This began an incredible streak of performance for the young righty. For the remainder of the year he threw 153.2 innings of 2.46 ERA ball with a 9.25 K/9 and a 3.17 BB/9. Thus despite the fact that his first seven starts of the year left him with a 7.29 ERA, Scherzer finished with respectable numbers: 3.50 ERA over 195.2 innings, 3.71 FIP, 8.46 K/9, 3.22 BB/9.

Max Scherzer leans heavily on his fastball, and for good reason. It hums in at around 93 mph, but he’s been known to dial it higher. According to Texas Leaguers, Scherzer threw this pitch almost 65% of the time in 2010. He complements this with a very good changeup, a pitch that comes in at around 84 mph, and a slider that he throws at roughly the same velocity. Perhaps because of his high-quality changeup, Scherzer barely had any platoon split in 2010:

Scherzer vs. LHB: 8.42 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 3.55 FIP

Scherzer vs. RHB: 8.52 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.06 HR/9, 3.89 FIP

He struck out a few more righties and walked a few more lefties, but gave up more homers to righties than lefties. For his career, his FIP vs. lefties is nearly a half run higher than it is against righties, but it’s possible that he gained more feel and command for the pitch in 2010, thereby enabling him to be more effective against lefties.

One of Scherzer’s biggest weaknesses is his inefficiency. In 2010 he had the tenth-highest pitch per inning total at 16.8. This means that, on average, Scherzer was over 100 pitches by the end of the sixth inning. If the Yankees approach him with patience and grind out their at-bats then they may be able to get to the soft underbelly of the Tigers’ bullpen early in the game.

As a side note, Scherzer is a bit of a stat-head. Click through to this interview with Eric Seidman at Baseball Prospectus to read him discuss mechanics, release points, BABIP and Pitch F(x). It’s fascinating stuff.