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Three Gentle Reminders

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Clint. (Presswire)

Clint Frazier, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Tyler Wade all started 2018 in different situations with regards to their status as Yankee players. Frazier and Ellsbury were the odd men out of a suddenly hyper-stacked outfield that included the AL Rookie of the Year (and should’ve been MVP) and the National League MVP. To boot, Ellsbury’s big contract meant Frazier would be sent back to AAA, at least for a little while. Wade, meanwhile, had a legitimate shot at the second base job, even with a top prospect in the running. Bringing in Brandon Drury made that shot even more legitimate, as he seems more attached to third base than second.

All that sure stuff, though, is fleeting. We remind ourselves that in times of great depth, things tend to sort themselves out and the picture becomes more clear, if more shallow. In the outfield, that seems to be happening now and it almost happened in the infield yesterday when Tyler Wade appeared to be inches away from snapping his wrist; watching it live, I thought he broke it for sure. Even though Wade is apparently fine, it was still another reminder that baseball will get in the way of any of our best laid plans or anticipations.

The Yankees are deep and could weather most scenarios–even disaster ones–better than most teams could. Times like the last two weeks remind us of the long haul we have ahead. We’re ready for real baseball, but the great offseason the Yankees had and the relatively smooth time in Spring Training have maybe colored our glasses a little pinstripe-rosy. Baseball season is long. Baseball season is grueling. What has happened to Clint Frazier is a reminder of how cruel the game can be.

With Wade, if he’s fine, the Yankees should just have him jump back in. Whatever he’s doing this spring is working perfectly. With Ellsbury and Frazier, though, the Yankees should be cautious and take their time. There are worse fourth outfielders than Ellsbury, and the Yankees may be forced to use one. Billy McKinney has some upside and has been performing nobly in camp, but it’s likely that Ellsbury’s more reliable at this point. Frazier is important to the present and future of the organization and we’ve seen the likes of Ryan Church and Justin Morneau ruined by concussions in the past; it would behoove the Yankees to treat Red Thunder with the kiddiest of kid gloves until he’s 100% right.

These injuries shouldn’t fully tamp down our excitement for this season, but be gentle reminders to us–as gentle as injuries can be–of how much there is left to go and how many obstacles the team will have to navigate in the coming months. It’s doubtful we’ve forgotten about that at all, given what’s happened to Greg Bird in the last two seasons, but sometimes, a reminder is necessary. Let’s cross our fingers that this is the only one.

Deeply Comfortable

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Bird and Judge. (Presswire)

At its most basic state, the Yankee lineup is formidable enough. Assuming Gleyber Torres makes the team out of Spring Training, the weak spots in the lineup are his and Brandon Drury’s. Think about that for a moment. The potential weak spots a pitcher will get to land on are occupied by a global top-5 prospect and a guy with a career .169 ISO. Even if Torres doesn’t make the team, Drury and someone else will be the not-so-strong spots, and those options all have something desirable; Miguel Andujar has power. Tyler Wade can take a walk and steal a bag. Ronald Torreyes has good contact skills.

Pulling back to incorporate the outfield, the Yankees have six players capable of being starting-caliber outfielders. Behind their rotation, the Yankees have three pitchers with blow-you-away stuff in Domingo German, Domingo Acevedo, and Albert Abreu. Even beyond them, they have top-100 prospects in Justus Sheffield and Chance Adams, not to mention Luis Cessa. The back of the bullpen could and would be the front for most teams. Jonathan Holder, Ben Heller, and Gio Gallegos would probably be mainstays in most MLB bullpens.

Despite Aaron Boone’s declarations, it’s hard to believe the Yankees aren’t in some market for pitching to add to their already decent rotation depth. If they add someone, it’ll be another concerted effort at buttressing against injury and/or poor performance. Late last week, the Yankees made a depth move, signing first baseman Adam Lind to a minor league deal, presumably as Greg Bird insurance. Lind is a solid bat who, in a normal market, would probably be on someone’s Major League roster without having to try out for it. If Bird goes down, there are few others who could fill in as well as Lind could and would.

The Yankees are well supplied at most every position. Granted, the catcher’s spot doesn’t quite fit that bill, but how many teams–absent the Dodgers–are able to have quality depth there? There are going to be storms that will need to be weathered throughout the season, as they always are, and the Yankees are in a great position to do so. At the very least, they have upside in many places where holes could form. So long as there isn’t some nightmare, Armageddon scenario in which everyone important gets hurt at exactly the same time, they’ll be alright.

The Lineup Considered — Again

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(Presswire)

The acquisition of Brandon Drury has added infield depth, even more than the Yankees had going into Spring Training. He joins Tyler Wade, Ronald Torreyes, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres in vying for a starting position somewhere in the infield. That’s a lot of guys for two starting spots and two bench spots before even considering Danny Espinosa, Jace Peterson, and Thairo Estrada. Despite the options, the assumption over the last few days is that Drury will end up the starting third baseman, which would relegate Andujar to Scranton. Let’s take a look at how this might impact the Yankee lineup, as well as some other permutations that are now necessarily Drury-inclusive.

The top of the lineup really won’t change much. It’ll be Brett Gardner followed by some combination of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird. With that top five to carry the load, the pressure will definitely be off the lower two-thirds of the lineup. Slotting the lower half of the order is slightly more puzzling in that there are players with some question marks in the group. Is Didi Gregorius’ 25 homer power for real? Can Aaron Hicks be healthy and productive all season? How will one of — or both — Torres and Andujar adjust to and handle a full year of Major League pitching? Will Drury capitalize on his decent power — .177 career ISO — and become an average Major League hitter? These challenges, though, provide Aaron Boone with a little bit of freedom. He can justify batting these players anywhere in the lower half of the lineup with a decent argument to be made for each one — though it would be shocking if Hicks or Gregorius batted ninth.

To return to our Drury focus, let’s take a look at the three different possibilities with platoon matchups considered: 1) Drury at third with Torres sent down and Wade/Torreyes platooning; 2) Drury in a 2B platoon with Tyler Wade, which also assumes Torres is sent down; 3) Drury on the bench, assuming both Torres and Andujar make the team out of Spring Training.

Order v R Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
6 Gregorius Gregorius Gregorius
7 Hicks Hicks Hicks
8 Drury Andujar Andujar
9 Wade Wade Torres
Order v L Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
6 Hicks Hicks Hicks
7 Drury Drury Gregorius
8 Gregorius Gregorius Andujar
9 Torreyes Andujar Torres

Drury doesn’t have much of a platoon split in his career — 99 wRC+ vs. LHP; 94 vs. RHP. He does offer slightly more power against lefties than against righties — a .194 ISO vs. a (still respectable) .169. It’s a small difference and Didi does fine against lefties, so you could swap their positions in the order and things wouldn’t change much. The same goes for the rookies Andujar and Torres; swapping them in the eight/nine spots won’t make too much of a difference.

It’s clear that the Yankees have a good problem on their hands — it’s likely they’ll have nine hitters in the lineup who are, at the least, competent. Even if they go with Torres and Andujar — who have one Major League start between them — there’s upside at every position in the batting order. This was true even without Drury on the team, but he gives them an extra option. These scenarios with “too many players” seem to work themselves out. The more fallbacks, the better. Even with those fallback options, though, this team will hit. And it’s easy to  take the stance of Giancarlo Stanton: I feel bad for the baseballs.

Stepping Up: Aaron Hicks in 2018

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(Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

I’ve been a part time player, so to speak, a lot in my life. Before landing a full-time job in the summer of 2016, I was something of a migrant teacher. In Connecticut, between April of 2013 and June of 2016, I taught in five schools, never for more than a year at a time, as a long-term substitute. I taught every grade from 7-12, with the exception of 8th, going through myriad curricula, from creative writing to world literature, and everything in between. And all the while, I never felt settled until I got my chance at a full time job. If you’ll allow me a stretch–as you so often do–the situation I was in is vaguely analogous to that of Aaron Hicks.

After missing all of July and having a very ‘meh’ return to the field in August and beyond, Hicks is slotted to be the Yankees’ center fielder this year from the jump, as opposed to having to play a bench role or usurp an established starter as was the case in 2016 and 2017. Hicks is a switch hitter and a solid defender, bonuses on top of his youth relative to his competition, not counting Clint Frazier (who’s not really competition anyway); he still has upside left, unlike Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Despite appearing in every season since 2013, Hicks has never had more than 361 PA in a season, which he notched both in 2016 and 2017. In 2016, that came in 123 games; last year, it came in only 81, showing the trajectory of his career from bench player into starter. This year, barring injury, he’ll pass both of those marks, assuming health.

Hicks brings a patient approach at the plate and adds pop, too. He also plays a good outfield and has a rocket for an arm. This is just about everything you’d want in a center fielder. Additionally, if his Instagram account is anything to be believed, Hicks has worked incredibly hard this offseason to make this a healthy and productive season.

All of this is a long way to say that Aaron Hicks is a player we can all be rooting for to take the spotlight in 2018. Though he can–and hopefully will–produce, the pressure won’t necessarily be on him to do so, given the other bats in the lineup. After injuries and waiting in line, Hicks is in a good position to enhance his career and take a big step, just like the club he’s a part of.

A Thought after the Yu Darvish Non-Signing

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Darvish (Harry How/Getty)

Nothing ever happens in a vacuum. When decisions are made–or not made–there is always some context to consider. We make our choices to do or do not, be or not be based on the circumstances that surround whatever situation we’re in. Then, those choices have consequences, which lead to new contexts, which lead to new choices, which lead to…you get where this goes. Yesterday, a choice the Cubs made got me thinking about a choice the Yankees didn’t and the possible consequences of that non-choice.

The Cubs signed free agent pitcher Yu Darvish, someone to whom the Yankees were linked for much of the offseason. The deal has a $126M base salary, with incentives to bring it up to $150M, over six years. As Mike said in the post, seems about right. Maybe it’s a little less inflated than recent pitcher contracts have been, especially given Darvish’s track record and reputation, but underwhelming contract returns seems to be a theme of the 2017-2018 Hot Stove. Despite that, and the aforementioned connection between the Bombers and Yu, Ken Rosenthal revealed that the team never even made an offer to sign Darvish. Why not? Say it with me, folks: the luxury tax.

By now, with Darvish off the table, Spring Training days away, and no other salary-related trades made since the Chase Headley one, I’m resigned to the fact that the Yankees are, very clearly, going to stay under the tax threshold. And I get it, when thinking from their point of view. It gives them savings shortly down the road that they’ll use to invest back into the team. On top of that, the team, as presently constructed, is good enough to win without adding a big piece. ZiPS and PECOTA have them at 93 and 96 wins respectively, both marks projected to win the division, the latter quite comfortably. And as counter intuitive as it may be, that rosy projection has me worried about the Yankees’ plans to spend going forward.

(Presswire)

For a few years now, both Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman have beat a similar drum, one whose tune says “you don’t have to spend $200M to be a winner.”  There’s truth to that statement and the Yankees are finally in a position to make it true. Between Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery in the rotation, along with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird in the lineup, as well as Chad Green in the bullpen, the Yankees have plenty of impact players making dirt cheap salaries. That’s to say nothing of both the depth and high-end potential of their minor league players–spearheaded by Gleyber Torres and Justus Sheffield–and their apparent starting third baseman, Miguel Andujar. This team is set up to win in the short term and the long term, just what everyone wants. And the more I think about it, the more likely it seems that the Yankees will not reinvest their luxury tax savings if they win this year.

Eight months from now, it’ll be November. The Yankees will almost certainly have made the playoffs. They’ll probably have one at least one round. They may have even gotten to and/or won the World Series. And those things, no matter how minimal, are going to influence the Yankees. With last year’s performance, the Yankees arrived ahead of schedule. They were able to win without a huge splash in the free agent market, and are poised to do so this year. The trade for Giancarlo Stanton makes them less likely to go after Bryce Harper, who’d really have no room to play in the Yankees’ outfield in 2019 and beyond. If the team wins with Miguel Andujar at third base all year, and he comports himself as well as he can and is able to, the Yankees could reasonably pass on Manny Machado, too. If Machado is set on playing shotstop, the Yankees can always point to Didi Gregorius and Gleyber Torres as reasons not to sign him to a big money deal.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing for the Yankees to sit out the free agent market next year if they show great success this year. Winning is winning, after all, regardless of how much you spend. But the Yankees’ actions this year, especially on the pitching market, and their team construction make me think they’re going to skip reinvesting the potential and probable luxury tax savings from 2018. That’s their prerogative since it’s their team, their money, etc. And if you can win and spend less doing it? Great! But we’ve been told for years that this plan was to get them reset to spend big when the time came. I can’t help but feel we’re in for a bait and switch.

Half Retro: An Appreciation of the 2008 New York Yankees

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(Getty)

2008 was a year of transition in many ways. The latter portion was the beginning of my senior year of college. It was an election year. It was also the first year since 1995 that someone other than Joe Torre was the Yankee manager, as well as the first year since 1993–strike in 1994 notwithstanding–that the Yankees didn’t make the playoffs. It was the last year in Yankee Stadium II. It was their “worst” year in a long time, and they still won 89 games.

As he usually was around this time, Alex Rodriguez–coming off one of the best Yankee seasons in history–was the team’s offensive leader. He was second in average, first in OBP, slugging (also led the entire AL at .573), RBI, etc. Hefinished eighth in AL MVP voting. Dustin Pedroia was that year’s winner at 6.8 bWAR; A-Rod clocked in at 6.8, beating all MVP placers (tied with Cliff Lee). He only played in 138 games that year and had 143 PA fewer than Pedroia.

Ironically–we’ll get to why later–this team had two pitching standouts, Mike Mussina (in his final year) and Mariano Rivera. Both finished in the top for the Cy Young voting–Mo fifth and Moose tied for sixth with Ervin Santana. Rivera’s ERA (1.40) was the second lowest of his career. His ERA+ (316!) was the best of his career, as was his 0.665 (!!) WHIP and his 12.83 (!!!) K/BB. He was 38 years old. And still had years left in the tank. These numbers, in retrospect, perfectly capture Mariano Rivera’s career. Sure, relievers put up gaudy numbers all the time, but these ones just stand out so much, just like Rivera does among relief pitchers. He wasn’t always the best reliever in a given year, but he did it over almost 20 seasons, something no one else is likely to replicate any time soon.

(Presswire)

Mike Mussina’s 2008, his final year, was a perfect exit. It was a bounceback from a miserable 2007 and was his best year as a Yankee since his first year back in 2001. He finished in the top ten in bWAR (7); wins (2); WHIP (10); BB/9 (2); K/BB (4); ERA+ (5); ERA (6); and FIP (5). A great year by a great pitcher who’ll hopefully be a Hall of Famer this time next year.

Those three examples are typical–great players doing great things. But that’s not really the story of the 2008 Yankees. The story of the 2008 Yankees is one of frustration, just as much as it was one about transition. Robinson Cano had a terrible first half. Derek Jeter refused to take time off after Daniel Cabrera broke his hand with a pitch. Richie Sexson, Morgan Ensberg, Chad Moeller, and Justin Christian were guys on this team. They traded for Xavier Nady. Jose Molina and the corpse of Ivan Rodriguez did most of the catching. Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner started 35 (!) games between the two of them. Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes were putrid. Joba Chamberlain got hurt. And Chein Ming Wang’s career essentially ended on June 15, 2008—my 21st birthday. And despite all that, the Yankees won 89 games. Were they in the AL Central, they would’ve tied for the lead in the division. Had the current playoff system existed, they would’ve played the Red Sox (95 wins) in the one game playoff.

Think about that for a moment. A team that had Sir Sidney and Darrell Rasner start 35 games won almost 90 games. Missing the playoffs was frustrating, sure, but this was a sure sign that Joe Girardi was going to be a solid manager who could get the most–or close to it–out of his teams. This is what makes looking back on this team just as fond as it is frustrating. While they didn’t really get anywhere or accomplish anything, they made the best of a whole lot of bad situations and managed to be respectable when they could have easily not been at all. Aside from Mike Mussina’s swan song, not much will stand out about 2008 ten years from now. It’s not likely to be a season I tell my son all about. But it was an important year that marked the end of an era for a team and ushered in something new that we all love today.

Sunday Mini Mailbag 2: The Return

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(Getty)

Happy Sunday once again, all; I hope you’re doing well as we inch closer and closer to the start of Spring Training. The weather’s not quite as cold as the last time I did one of these, but here’s another mailbag to keep you warm. Additionally, if you haven’t already, go listen to the most recent episode of the RAB podcast, which features a great conversation between Joe and ESPN’s Keith Law about the Yankee’s farm system and top prospects. Onto your questions.

Nick asks: I know Sonny Gray wasn’t the ace some Yankee fans wanted after his acquisition, but he also wasn’t nearly as bad as some would lead you to believe. What are your realistic expectations for a guy who’s all of a sudden (I believe incorrectly) being viewed by some as a back end arm.

I touched on Sonny Gray last week and my thoughts are definitely similar to Nick’s. Did you realize that with the Yankees last year, in his 65.1 regular season innings, Gray had a 122 ERA+? In fact, the only season in which he’s failed to record and ERA+ lower than 120 was 2016 (72) when he was injured (only 22 starts). Sonny Gray is a really good pitcher. He suffered a rash of home runs last year (and who didn’t?), especially when he moved to the Bronx, so as long as he brings that down, I think he’ll be more than fine. ZiPS projects a 3.80/3.83 ERA/FIP split for Gray, good for an 86 ERA- and an 85 FIP-, both of which would be great (remember, minus stats mean lower than 100 = better than average) for the team’s third starter. I’m more optimistic, though, and think he can do a little better than that, with maybe an 80 ERA-.

Clay (a former baseball + softball teammate) asks: Do you think the Yankees will strike out too often to win a playoffs series?

Nope. Strikeouts are frustrating, but fans may overblow them at times and commentators certainly do. The Yankees ranked towards the back of the AL pack in strikeouts last year–10th out of 15–; it may seem like the Yankees strike out a lot, but, relative the competition, they definitely don’t. They return mostly the same team this year, too. Giancarlo Stanton strikes out at a high rate, but he’s dropped it recently and he, like the other Yankee hitters with high strikeout totals, brings lots of walks and power to mitigate the strikeouts. We should also note that the Yankees won a playoff series and took another to the seventh game against Cleveland and Houston, both high strikeout pitching staffs.

Sherri asks: What will be the Opening Day lineup?

My preference would be:

  1. LF: Brett Gardner
  2. RF: Aaron Judge
  3. DH: Giancarlo Stanton
  4. C: Gary Sanchez
  5. 1B: Greg Bird
  6. CF: Aaron Hicks
  7. SS: Didi Gregorius
  8. 3B: Miguel Andujar
  9. 2B: Tyler Wade

If the lineup doesn’t spit out exactly that way, I’m at least sure it’ll have that collection of players.

Ben asks: If you had to pick one Yankee player to babysit your son, who would you choose?

For those of you who don’t know, I have an 18 month old son. He’s awesome. Anyway, the cool thing about this question is that there almost isn’t a wrong answer. A lot of guys on the team are dads, all the way from CC and David Robertson to the younger guys like Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, and Miguel Andujar. Selfishly, I dream of my son being a left handed pitcher. So, with that in mind, and the fact that he has more dad experience than everyone else, I’m going with CC. Maybe some of the lefty magic wears off on my little guy. Plus, he might make an appearance on R2C2, and that would be pretty dope.

Matt, a Mets fan, asks: Will the Yankees ever stink to the point where they’ll be as bad as the Mets?

No.