River Avenue Blues

Mariano Rivera won’t be the first unanimous Hall of Famer and that’s okay

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

In about eight weeks the 2019 National Baseball Hall of Fame induction class will be announced. The ballot was announced last week. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Mussina are the notable holdovers. Martinez is on the ballot for the tenth and final time and should get in after receiving 70.4% of the vote last year. Mussina is on the ballot for the sixth time and received 63.5% of the vote last year. He might get in this year.

Among the first time eligible players on the ballot this year is Mariano Rivera — has it really been five years since this already? — who is of course a lock for induction. Rivera will clear the 75% threshold needed for induction with ease. He is the greatest closer of all-time and no one is close. Trevor Hoffman? Please. Rivera allowed 38 fewer runs in 194.1 more innings, and their postseason records do not compare. A strong case can be made Rivera is the greatest postseason performer ever. Eleven earned runs in 141 innings? Good gravy.

Rivera will sail into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. He will not be the first unanimous Hall of Famer, however. I can say that with near certainty right now. Here, before we move any further, are the highest voting percentages in Hall of Fame history:

  1. Ken Griffey Jr.: 99.32%
  2. Tom Seaver: 98.84%
  3. Nolan Ryan: 98.79%
  4. Cal Ripken Jr.: 98.53%
  5. Ty Cobb: 98.23%
  6. George Brett: 98.19%

No other Hall of Famer received at least 98% of the vote. Not Hank Aaron (97.83%), not Babe Ruth (95.13%), not Willie Mays (94.68%), not Ted Williams (93.38%). Could you imagine not voting for one of those guys? What sort of logic pretzel do you have to twist yourself into to justify not voting for Aaron or Mays? Good grief.

Anyway, Rivera will (probably) not be voted into the Hall of Fame unanimously simply because the odds are so stacked against him. There are 400-something Hall of Fame ballots each year — there were 422 last year — and chances are at least one of those 400-something voters will exclude Rivera. I see four possible explanations for not voting for Rivera and I’d rank them in this order in terms of likelihood:

  1. There are only ten spots on the ballot, and, since Rivera is a lock, a voter with a full ballot opts to use one of those ten spots on a player who is on the bubble and needs more help, like Mussina.
  2. Rivera being “only a one-inning reliever” is held against him. This is an old school way of thinking but it does still happen nowadays. There are currently only six relievers in the Hall of Fame, including starter-turned-reliever Dennis Eckersley.
  3. An old school voter clings to the belief that if guys like Cy Young, Yogi Berra, and Joe DiMaggio weren’t first ballot Hall of Famers (it’s true!), no one deserves to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and doesn’t vote for Mo. (“If this guy wasn’t unanimous, no one should be unanimous” fits here too.)
  4. Ignorance. A voter doesn’t believe Rivera’s body of work is worthy of induction. Silly? Absolutely. Possible? Also absolutely. I’d like to see someone make a genuine case against him. I’m not sure it can be done.

There is close to a zero percent chance No. 4 happens. Hall of Fame voters and awards voters aren’t as stupid as fans seem to believe. There are 400-something ballots and I refuse to believe a single one of those 400-something voters will genuinely believe Rivera’s body of work is not worthy of inclusion in the Hall of Fame. I can’t see it.

No. 1 is far and away the most likely reason Rivera will not be a unanimous Hall of Famer. “Gaming” the ballot absolutely happens. In 2015, Mike Berardino did not vote for Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez because he was comfortable assuming they would get voted in anyway, and he opted to use those two spots on his ten-player ballot on other players, specifically Alan Trammel and Larry Walker. I’m sure other voters have done something similar over the years.

Every few years we go through the “this guy should be the first unanimous Hall of Famer” thing and it never pans out. Rickey Henderson should’ve been unanimous. Greg Maddux should have also been unanimous. Griffey should’ve been unanimous. Rivera should be unanimous. Lots of guys should be unanimous but none have been so far for various reasons. Some reasons are more justifiable than others. (I personally don’t agree with “gaming” the ballot but I respect the strategy.)

Ultimately, Rivera is going to cruise into the Hall of Fame this year with a voting percentage well north of the 75% threshold. I would be surprised if he doesn’t receive at least 90% of the vote, in fact. Rivera’s getting in and, at the end of the day, that’s all that matters. Unanimous? First ballot? Who cares. There’s no special wing in Cooperstown for first ballot guys and they won’t build one for unanimous players. Voting percentages aren’t even included on the plaque because that would be silly. The Hall of Fame is about the player, not the voters. You’re either in or you’re out, and those players are in.

Would I like to see Rivera be the first unanimous Hall of Famer? Of course. It would be cool as hell and it’s hard to come up with a more deserving player. Rivera wasn’t just great, he was historically great. He’s so far ahead of every other reliever in history that it’s not even funny. I mean, look at the career WAR leaderboard among players who made at least 80% of their career appearances in relief:

  1. Mariano Rivera: +56.3 WAR
  2. Hoyt Wilhelm: +50.1 WAR (in almost 1,000 more innings than Rivera)
  3. Goose Gossage: +41.9 WAR

And that doesn’t even include the postseason! Rivera is an all-time great and he carried himself with class throughout his career. He was a great ambassador for the game. You couldn’t pick a better player to be the first unanimous Hall of Famer, potentially. But it won’t happen though. The odds are against Rivera only because the numbers suggest it won’t happen. There are so many voters and every single one has to vote the same way for it to happen.

Rivera not getting into the Hall of Fame this year would be a travishamockery. That would be worthy of all the scorn and fury the internet has to offer. The voters get the slam dunks right though and Rivera is a slam dunk. He’ll be voted into the Hall of Fame this year, likely not unanimously, but that’s okay. Voting percentages and induction years are forgotten in time. The important this is we got to watch Rivera’s brilliant career and, as of next summer, he’ll find himself in Cooperstown alongside the all-time greats, right where he belongs.

The Constant of the Rotation [2018 Season Review]

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(Al Bello/Getty Images)

The Yankees have had a decent amount of rotation changes from 2014 and on. One of the few constants, however, has been the presence of Masahiro Tanaka. Since signing with the Yankees in January 2014, you could count on Tanaka being in the rotation and turning in a solid season. In five seasons as a Yankee, Tanaka has compiled a 15.5 fWAR in 132 games started, which averages out to roughly ~3.1 fWAR season in 27 starts. He’s a type of pitcher that any team would want in their rotation.

2018 was no different. In 27 starts, Tanaka had a 12-6 record with a 3.75 ERA/4.01 FIP and a 2.7 fWAR. Looking at his numbers closer, he’s shown that he pretty much performed true to his style – high strikeouts (9.17 K/9), low walks (2.02 BB/9) and giving up home runs more than once in a start or so (1.44 HR/9). It’s perfectly fine for a No. 2-to-mid-rotation starter.

First Half

For the first 12 starts of the season, Tanaka was 7-2. That’s a pretty good win-loss record for that many appearances, right? The numbers beneath that surface wasn’t as good. In those 67.2 IP, Tanaka had a 4.79 ERA. While he struck out a good amount (65) and limited walks (18), the amount of home runs allowed (15) was the thorn in his side. He was allowing a dinger about every three innings. Basically, he was doing everything pretty well besides gopher balls, and that’s a biggie.

There is no way to sugar coat this: Tanaka was throwing pitches that were too hittable. One of the causes may be that the hitters weren’t chasing his offspeed pitches as much. In 2017, Tanaka was literally the best at it – hitters chases his pitches out of the zone 42.1% of the time. That is ahead of guys like Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, etc. This may have been the result of the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. Tanaka doesn’t have a great fastball to begin with, so not only did he rely on his better pitches, but also he eliminated one of his weaknesses out of the equation.

Unfortunately, big league hitters are not suckers. The approach may work for awhile, but the teams keep tab on guys like Tanaka. They notice things and start adjusting accordingly. That may have caught up with him in early 2018, as teams just started chasing way less. It’s almost like he needed to change something up to get things going later in the season (this becomes important later).

Injury

(Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

After a less-than-ideal first half, Tanaka needed to turn his season around a bit. Against the Mets on June 8, Tanaka threw 5 brilliant innings, striking out 8, allowing only one hit (a home run) and a walk. There was a major problem though: Tanaka exited the game after the top of the sixth. Because it was a Mets home game, the Yankees had to abide by the NL rules and Tanaka had to hit for himself. It seemed like, right away, that Tanaka hurt his lower body tagging up from the third base on a sac fly. As soon as Tanaka did not return to the mound, Yankee fans’ mind flashed back to Chien-Ming Wang in 2008. Take a look.

Well, the good news was that Tanaka’s injury was not as bad as what Wang suffered. The bad news is that it was an injury – to both of his hamstrings. It’s a very Mets injury and of course, it happened in the Citi Field.

“I don’t think it’s anything special,” Tanaka said after the game. “I’ve been doing this since I was a little kid. It’s on me that I got hurt.”

Tanaka indeed was a position player (a catcher at one point, actually) and pitcher growing up, all the way through high school. But since being drafted into NPB, he’s not really had to do much hitting. From 2007 to 2018, he’s compiled only 70 plate appearances. I doubt he’s had to do baserunning training/drills as position players would. It sucks that he was thrown into a situation where he had to run more than what he’s usually asked to and got hurt. I’m not going to go full-force on “ban the DH” sentiment here since vast majority of AL pitchers who end up baserunning in NL field come out unscathed. It feels more like a thing that happened in unfortunate series.

Second Half Brilliance

A month after he was shelved, Tanaka returned to action on July 10 vs. the Orioles. While his first outing back was a dud (4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER), the rest of the season wasn’t. In the 14 starts after coming off the DL, Tanaka went 5-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 83.1 IP. Not only he kept striking out hitters (86) and limiting walks (16), he kept the ball in the yard (9 homers). There was a streak of four starts from August 27 to September 14 in which he did not allow a home run at all (with three of them at the Yankee Stadium for what it’s worth). So what changed?

Here is one noticeable thing: he threw more fastballs towards the end of the year. Here is his monthly fastball usage log from Brooks Baseball:

  • March: 16.9%
  • April: 21.9%
  • May: 20.3%
  • June: 16.9%
  • July 16.9%
  • August: 19.4%
  • September: 29.7%

The rate in September is almost as twice as much as that of March/June/July. September also happened to be the month where he marked a 2.79 ERA with only 2 home runs allowed in 29.0 IP. He threw less cutters, curveballs and sinkers, kept up with slider and splitter usage and bumped up the fastball frequency.

My theory? Maybe he was going against what the book had on him. I’m sure Tanaka was aware that opponents knew he had offered a steady diet of breaking stuff. At some point, that can become predictable, getting opposing batters to sit on non-straight pitches. However, he chose to keep up with slider and splitter because, frankly, those are two that he just can’t do without. They also happen to be the only two pitches that’s rated positively on FanGraphs pitch values.

So while he continued using his best pitches, Tanaka decided to turn heads by attacking hitters with fastball. His fastball isn’t really anything to write home about so I’m guessing the league could catch up to up, in which case he can tweak his approach again. It may not be an ideal outcome, but all big league pitchers go through it.

Postseason

(Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)

Tanaka had such a strong postseason last year that he became a realistic candidate for a one-game AL Wild Card Game vs. Oakland. He and J.A. Happ were the two sturdiest starting pitchers going into the postseason, so most guessed that it would be one of those two (spoiler: it wasn’t). If one would weigh a pitcher’s postseason/big game history, Tanaka would be an easy choice. The man’s pitched big games all his life. In 2006, before getting drafted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles, Tanaka led his high school team to the Koshien Finals with his bat and arm. He won the 2009 World Baseball Classic gold medal with Team Japan. He had that legendary 2013 Japan Series where he closed out the title game with a save one day after throwing a 160-pitch complete game. With the Yankees, he had thrown 25 innings in the postseason with only 4 runs allowed. I’m not a huge “postseason genes” guy, but if I were, Tanaka would be someone I’d definitely give the tag.

That being said, the Yankees went with their best starting pitcher in the past two seasons for the AL Wild Card game (it’s Luis Severino, btw). Because they won that and made it to the ALDS, Tanaka was slated to make at least one start in the postseason. He got the call to pitch against the Red Sox in the Game 2 of the ALDS.

Against the eventual World Champions, Tanaka held on his own. He pitched five innings, allowed only a run and struck out four. He earned the win and that would be the only win the Yankees would earn in that series. That was the last outing for Tanaka in 2018. Let’s hope he gets more postseason starts in 2019.

What’s Next?

It is a very sure thing: Tanaka will be a Yankee for at least two more years. In the winter of 2017-18, Tanaka chose to stay in New York by exercising a three-year, $67 million option. This was an ultimate win-win move. The Yankees retained a reliable starter for three more years, and Tanaka got to escape what it turned out to be a hellish offseason for free agents. I’m not sure if he would have suffered the same fate as that of Alex Cobb or Yu Darvish, but making ends meet very early in the winter turned out to be a good decision.

Thoughts two weeks before the 2018 Winter Meetings

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Never hustle, hit dingers. (Kevork Djansezian/Getty)

Now that December is less than a week away, we’re getting into the heart of the offseason. Things have been relatively slow so far — in fact, the Yankees have been one of the most active teams to date — but they started to pick up yesterday with the Braves adding Brian McCann and Josh Donaldson. That’s fun. Anyway, here are some scattered thoughts.

1. Every time I think we’ve reached peak stupid with the “Manny Machado doesn’t hustle” stuff, it gets a little stupider. Last week Reggie Jackson, a man who nearly fought his manager in the dugout because he didn’t hustle after a ball in the outfield, told Wally Matthews that not hustling “ain’t going to play here,” which is silly. There was the Reggie incident with Billy Martin. Paul O’Neill jogged out ground balls all the time. So did Robinson Cano. And you know what? People loved them. Why? Because they raked. Teams and fans alike will overlook a lot of things — things more awful than not hustling — if you produce and few can produce like Machado. Hal Steinbrenner told Ken Davidoff that Machado’s comments about not hustling were “troubling” and that he’ll have to explain himself, but please. Spare me. The Yankees don’t get to be sanctimonious about hustle — hustle! — after exploiting a domestic violence investigation to get a good trade. This is all an act. The Yankees will sign Machado if the dollars are right. End of story. If they sign him, they’ll say they believe Machado is a changed man and that he’s very remorseful. If they don’t, they’ll say they didn’t want to commit big money to guy who acted like that. Any team with serious interest in Machado will ask him about the non-hustle and any answer he gives will be scripted (because his agent is no dummy). Actions speak louder than words, etc. etc. To me, kicking Jesus Aguilar at first base is far worse than jogging out some grounders and loafing a double into a single. That’s what Hal and Reggie and whoever else should comment about. Not the non-hustle. Comment on what seemed to be intent to injure an opposing player. The non-hustle stuff? It has jumped the shark. Save the outrage for something meaningful.

2. I’ve been saying this for months, probably years, but I need to see the Yankees exceed the luxury tax threshold next year to believe they’re actually going to do it. Ownership has been laser-focused on winning on a (admittedly ample) budget. “We’re going to keep adding pieces until we’re sure we are where we need to be,” said Hal to David Lennon recently when asked about exceeding the threshold, whatever that means. I don’t buy the Yankees exceeding the luxury tax threshold. At the same time, part of me thinks the Yankees didn’t go through all the trouble of getting under the threshold and resetting their luxury tax rate this year only to walk away with a guy like Patrick Corbin this offseason, you know? Corbin’s good! But there are two 26-year-old superstars on the market this winter — flawed players? yes, but superstars in every sense of the term — and those are players you don’t pass up. Machado and Bryce Harper are balance of power players. They can swing a division race all by themselves. And they’re only 26! It’s not like you’re giving 32-year-old Albert Pujols a ten-year contract. Given the Didi Gregorius injury and their current roster needs, Machado is the better fit for the Yankees. I think Harper will be the better player the next five years though — Mike Trout is the only player I comfortably expect to outproduce Harper the next five years — and I hope the Yankees are lying in the weeds here a la Mark Teixeira in December 2008. Weeks of silence then bam, Harper is in pinstripes out of nowhere. Would be cool.

3. I don’t know what to expect with the inevitable (and imminent?) Sonny Gray trade. The range of possible outcomes seems pretty wide. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees go the McCann route and trade Gray for two lower level prospects. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees trade Gray for a big league piece, or a youngster on the cusp of the big leagues. A change-of-scenery trade (one year of Sonny for one year of a similarly out-of-favor player) would make sense but I don’t know who that similarly out-of-favor player would be. Eric Thames is the most common name out there but that’s all speculation, not a hard rumor. Jason Kipnis? Jedd Gyorko? Jonathan Schoop? I dunno. This is a very unique situation. We’ve been through a few offseasons in which the Yankees had a player we all knew they would trade (McCann and A.J. Burnett jump to mind) but it was never anything like this. The Yankees are advertising Gray’s availability and the general manager is dumping on the guy every chance he gets. It’s … weird. I get the feeling this will all wrap up fairly soon — Thanksgiving may have slowed talks down — and that’s probably for the best. Get it over with so it’s not hanging over the Yankees all offseason, you know? Eliminate the distraction and move forward. I am very curious to see the trade return. I think Gray will fetch a decent return but I have no idea whether that means prospects or a big leaguer.

4. The non-tender deadline is this Friday and the Yankees do not have any obvious non-tender candidates. I don’t think they’ll non-tender Gray (if he’s still around) and I don’t think they’ll non-tender Gregorius even though it would be justifiable given his projected salary ($12.4M) and injury. The Yankees could swing the non-tender/re-sign move with a few players — by non-tender/re-sign, I mean non-tender a player and then re-sign him to a minor league contract, which allows you to remove him from the 40-man roster and keep him in the organization without exposing him to waivers — most notably Ben Heller and Kyle Higashioka. Those two stand out as non-tender/re-sign candidates. Heller is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and guys working their way back from elbow reconstruction are classic non-tender/re-sign candidates. The Yankees did it with Domingo German and Vicente Campos back in the day. Higashioka is the quintessential up-and-down third catcher who clearly has some fans in the organization. The Yankees wouldn’t have stuck with him this long otherwise. He’s worth keeping around because he knows the pitching staff and you can never ever have too much catching. At this point though, Higashioka probably isn’t worth a 40-man roster spot. Non-tender him, re-sign him to a minor league deal, and if he’s needed at some point during the 2019 season, opening a 40-man spot will be a piece of cake because Gregorius and Jordan Montgomery (and Jacoby Ellsbury?) will be 60-day DL candidates. Heller is a prime non-tender/re-sign candidate. I could see the Yankees going that route with Higashioka as well.

Kahnle. (Presswire)

5. One more potential non-tender candidate: Tommy Kahnle. Kahnle went from 98-100 mph and untouchable in 2017 to 94-96 mph and unplayable in 2018. He’s projected to make $1.5M next season and, if the Yankees don’t think he can get back to where he was last year (or reasonably close to that level), non-tendering him wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world. “I want to be able to come in and prove that I’m still that guy that they saw two seasons ago. That’s what I’m going to be working toward, getting back to what I was the year before,” said Kahnle to Brendan Kuty earlier this week. Further complicating things is the fact Kahnle is now out of minor league options. He’ll have to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A next year. Even at $1.5M, I’m inclined to think the Yankees will keep Kahnle and give him every opportunity to win a bullpen spot in Spring Training. He’s only 29 and you needn’t look back that far to see the last time he was dominant. Not just good. Dominant. Kahnle had the shoulder injury early this year and I think it’s worthwhile to bring him to camp to see what he looks like after an offseason of rest. That said, Kahnle could be a non-tender candidate. The Yankees have seen his medicals and may not feel good about his shoulder, and the non-tender would mean a clean break with no 2019 payroll strings attached. We’ll see. My guess is the Yankees go the non-tender/re-sign route with Heller and Higashioka while everyone else stays, including Kahnle.

6. The Yankees added righty reliever Joe Harvey to the 40-man roster last week to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft — he’s the only player they added to the 40-man before the protection deadline — and that both did and did not surprise me. It did surprise me because Harvey’s not a top prospect and, despite his strong Triple-A season, I’m not sure there’s enough there to be anything more than an up-and-down shuttle arm because reports indicate his secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) are just okay. It didn’t surprise me because I thought Harvey had a good chance to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft — relievers with Triple-A success are prime Rule 5 Draft fodder — so it’s understandable that the Yankees kept him. You don’t have to try hard to see some team stashing him on their big league roster next season as the last guy in the bullpen. There’s nothing exciting about an up-and-down last man in the bullpen type but teams do need those guys, and if you have someone you think could maybe be more than that, it’s worth keeping him as one of last guys on the 40-man roster. I’m not really sure where I’m going with this. I’m curious to see Harvey in Spring Training because I’m always curious to see these fringe 40-man guys. Every once in a while they turn into something useful. Maybe Harvey will be the next.

7. There are two pitching prospects on the 40-man roster who are facing very important 2019 seasons: Albert Abreu and Domingo Acevedo. Both have top shelf stuff, especially Abreu, but they’ve been limited by injuries the last two seasons. Abreu, 23, has thrown 166.1 innings (five above High-A) the last two years around a variety of injuries, including elbow trouble. Acevedo turns 25 in March (for real) and he’s been limited to 202.1 innings the last two years. They both have two minor league option years remaining and they don’t check IDs on the mound — if you can get outs, you can get outs, no one cares how old you are — so it’s not put up or shut up time for these two the way it is for, say, Domingo German, who’s out of options. It is time to start making progress though. Acevedo still doesn’t have a reliable breaking ball (he’s a fastball/changeup guy) and Abreu’s control can be all over the place, and they both have to stay on the field. Another injury interrupted season could push both out of the picture. Forty-man roster spots are a finite resource and I’m not sure how long the Yankees can tie up two roster spots with two undeniably talented but not yet ready to contribute pitching prospects. Hopefully Abreu and Acevedo both take that step forward next year and put themselves in the big league mix for 2020, if not sooner.

Hot Stove Rumors: Cano, Ellsbury, Goldschmidt, Sheffield, Gray

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I do miss that swing. (Stephen Lam/Getty)

Thanksgiving weekend is over and the hot stove is starting to heat up. Earlier today the Braves signed both Brian McCann (one year, $2M) and Josh Donaldson (one year, $23M), so the defending NL East champs are makin’ moves. The Yankees still have a lot to do this offseason even after re-signing Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia, and trading for James Paxton. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees, Mariners talked Cano for Ellsbury

Earlier this offseason the Yankees and Mariners briefly discussed a Robinson Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury trade, reports Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d). Talks didn’t advance much because the Yankees wanted Seattle to include “significant cash” in the trade in addition to taking Ellsbury. Cano has five years and $120M remaining on his contract. Ellsbury has two years and $47M. Rosenthal adds the Yankees are wary about having to commit their DH spot to Cano down the line. There are also two no-trade clauses to navigate (Robbie would probably okay a trade back to New York in a heartbeat).

Cano, 36, hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) with ten homers in 80 games around his performance-enhancing drug suspension this year. The Yankees could stick him at second until Didi Gregorius returns, then slide him over to first base, which he played briefly in 2018. Cano is a better player than Ellsbury, there’s little doubt about that, but those last five years on his contract could be heavy decline years. The Yankees limited their offer to seven years back when Cano was a free agent because they wanted to avoid those age 38-40 seasons, remember. When we’re talking two years vs. five years in a bad contract swap, my preference is the shorter deal. Just get it over with, you know?

Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees pushed Justus Sheffield in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt before sending Sheffield to the Mariners in the Paxton deal. Actually, Olney says “rival executives report” the Yankees pushed Sheffield in Goldschmidt talks, which is an important distinction. This is a secondhand rumor. Hmmm.

Three weeks ago we heard the Yankees had not yet shown interest in Goldschmidt, though things could’ve easily changed since then. And, even though Goldschmidt will be a free agent next winter, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for the D’Backs to seek a Sheffield caliber prospect in return. Goldschmidt’s really good! The Yankees pushing Sheffield in talks though? That’s interesting, assuming it’s true. This would hardly be the first time the Yankees weren’t as high on a prospect internally as they let on.

More teams showing interest in Gray

We can add four more teams to the Sonny Gray trade rumor mill. Nick Cafardo reports the Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have expressed interest in Gray in recent weeks. The Athletics and Reds are in on him as well. I reckon more than those six teams are interested in Sonny. Even with only one relatively inexpensive year of control, he’s a good buy-low candidate who makes sense for contenders and rebuilders alike.

The Yankees are going to trade Gray at some point, Brian Cashman has made that very clear, and my hunch is it will happen fairly soon. Likely at some point before the Winter Meetings in two weeks. Trading Gray eliminates the distraction to some degree. More than anything though, it’ll provide clarity. What do the Yankees get in return? How much money do they save, if any? Answering those questions will help shape the rest of the offseason going forward.

Yankees trying to move Stanton?

There are “long-shot rumblings” the Yankees are trying to move Giancarlo Stanton, reports Cafardo. That’s a weird way to phrase it. “Long-shot rumblings?” Huh. Anyway, I don’t really buy this. I’m sure the Yankees are open to moving Stanton because they’re open to moving anyyone in the right deal, but his no-trade clause complicates things, as does having to replace him. Dudes who hit 38 homers with a 127 wRC+ in a down year are hard to find.

The Yankees could of course trade Stanton and replace him by signing Bryce Harper (or Manny Machado), but get outta here with that. For starters, the Yankees should be trying to add Harper (or Machado) to Stanton, not replacing one with the other. And secondly, Stanton carries a $22M luxury tax hit and Harper (or Machado) will come in around 150% of that, if not more, for similar production. If the Yankees are going to obsess over payroll, and it sure seems like they are, Stanton’s the far better value. Well, whatever. There’s no sense in dwelling on this because it probably won’t happen.

Yanks claim Parker Bridwell off waivers from Angels, Ronald Torreyes designated for assignment

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(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

The Toe-night Show is no more. This afternoon the Yankees announced they have claimed right-hander Parker Bridwell off waivers from the Angels, and, to make room on the 40-man roster, Ronald Torreyes has been designated for assignment. Aw geez.

Bridwell, 27, had a decent year with the Halos in 2017, throwing 121 innings with a 3.64 ERA (4.84 FIP). His strikeout (14.8%) and ground ball (38.1%) rates were not good though. This past season Bridwell allowed 40 runs in 34.2 innings between Triple-A and MLB before surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow ended his season in June. As best I can tell, he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training.

I assume the Yankees claimed Bridwell because he’s a spin rate guy. The performance and recent elbow surgery certainly don’t stand out, after all. His fastball (2,433 rpm), curveball (2,821 rpm), and cutter (2,525 rpm) have all shown comfortably above-average spin rates in his relatively brief MLB career, and I guess the Yankees believe he can be better with a healthy elbow.

As for Torreyes, everyone’s favorite utility guy went up-and-down in 2018, hitting .280/.294/.370 (78 wRC+). The non-tender deadline is this Friday and I kinda had a feeling Torreyes might lose his 40-man spot, so much so that I wrote about it for tomorrow’s thoughts post. Here’s that now defunct blurb:

One more potential non-tender candidate: Ronald Torreyes. Torreyes is projected to make $900,000 through arbitration next year and that’s not much in the grand scheme of things. It also might be more than the Yankees are willing to spend on an up-and-down utility guy with Tyler Wade, Thairo Estrada, Hanser Alberto, and Tim Locastro also on the 40-man roster and Go Urshela in Triple-A. Torreyes is a quality utility guy. Nothing more, nothing less. He puts the bat on the ball and he can play the three non-first base infield positions competently. His ceiling is limited because he has no power, doesn’t walk, and doesn’t steal bases. Wade is a better defender and a better runner. Thairo has more thump in his bat. Alberto and Urshela are much better glovemen. Locastro is more versatile and a better runner. Torreyes is very popular in the clubhouse but that didn’t stop the Yankees from sending him to Triple-A multiple times this year. I’m not sure non-tendering him and re-signing him to a minor league contract is possible — another team could swoop in with a guaranteed Major League contract and an easier path to big league playing time — but, if there’s a 40-man roster crunch, Torreyes could get non-tendered. The Yankees are fairly deep in up-and-down utility infield types and Torreyes is the most expensive (and least tooled up) of the bunch. A non-tender wouldn’t be a popular move but it could happen. (As for the clubhouse, if the Yankees can’t overcome the loss of Torreyes, then they have much bigger problems than losing a utility infielder.)

Hopefully Torreyes clears outright waivers and remains in the organization as a non-40-man player. Cheap utility guys have a tendency to get claimed on waivers though, especially when they have minor league options remaining (Torreyes does) and have shown they can be effective at the MLB level. Hopefully Torreyes clears. I don’t think it’ll happen though. Sucks.

Bridwell, meanwhile, is out of minor league options, meaning he can’t go to Triple-A without passing through waivers. The Yankees have quite the collection of out-of-options fringe starter/reliever types in Bridwell, Domingo German, Luis Cessa, and A.J. Cole. I’m curious to see how this all shakes out. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Bridwell wind up on outright waivers at some point as the Yankees see whether they can keep him as a non-40-man guy.

The First Base Godsend [2018 Season Review]

by

(Getty)

First base has been a glaring weakness for the Yankees over the last three seasons. Mark Teixeira had his last great season in 2015 — he hit .255/.357/.548 (143 wRC+) with 31 homers in 111 games that year — and Greg Bird helped picked up the slack after Teixeira went down with his shin injury that August. That was the last great year at first base in the Bronx.

From 2016-18, the Yankees had 20 (!) different players play at least one game at first base, two more than any other team. Among those 20 first basemen are Dustin Ackley, Billy Butler, Chris Parmelee, and pitcher Bryan Mitchell. The Yankees really scraped the bottom of the barrel, eh? Here are New York’s first base ranks the last three years:

  • AVG: .230 (28th in MLB)
  • OBP: .306 (26th)
  • SLG: .426 (25th)
  • wRC+: 95 (26th)
  • WAR: +1.9 (27th)

That is turrible. The league average first baseman hit .259/.339/.459 (112 wRC+) the last three years. Yankees’ first basemen hit like 2018 Ian Desmond (.236/.307/.422) in almost 2,000 plate appearances during that time. This season their first basemen hit .234/.309/.453 (104 wRC+), which is only slightly better than their aggregate 2016-18 output. First base has been a black hole since Teixeira.

Bird was expected to man first base this past season but that didn’t work out. He got hurt and didn’t hit when healthy. Backup plan Neil Walker didn’t fare well in part-time duty. Tyler Austin had his moments early in the season, for sure, but his production slipped in May and he was traded in July. The Yankees even had Brandon Drury start two games at first base as they looked for a solution.

Enter Luke Voit. Voit effectively replaced Austin as the depth right-handed hitting first baseman — Voit has minor league options remaining beyond 2018 whereas Austin did not, which was a factor in the swap — and he became much more than a depth pickup. Voit took over as the everyday first baseman in late August and hit .333/.405/.689 (194 wRC+) with 14 homers in 148 plate appearances in pinstripes. What a shot in the arm. Let’s review Voit’s season.

Finding Voit

“He was somebody that was on our radar. Our analytics crew had noticed him early on, and so in a lot of our meetings last year he was someone that we coveted from St. Louis,” said Brian Cashman last month. “We finally matched up (at the deadline), but we had a lot of guys in the office … those guys were all pushing his name hard and brought it to me.”

The key words there: “last year.” The Yankees had Voit on their radar for some time. Cashman added the team’s analytics department zeroed in on Voit because he hit the ball really freaking hard. In 124 plate appearances with the Cardinals last year, Voit posted a 41.0% hard contact rate and a 7.2% soft contact rate, numbers that are Aaron Judge-ian. His exit velocity (91.3 mph) was quite strong as well.

Minor league Trackman data (i.e. Statcast) exists but it is not publicly available. MLB and the 30 teams keep it all in-house, which is a bummer, but I get it. Anyway, that information also contributed to the Yankees pursuing Voit. The Yankees saw that he was hitting the ball hard, hard enough to overcome his weak defense at the position at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, and the fact he’s on the light side of the platoon. He was worth a shot.

Prior to the trade Voit hit .299/.391/.500 (135 wRC+) with nine homers in 271 plate appearances at Triple-A, and had gone 2-for-11 (.182) with the Cardinals. Matt Carpenter crushed the ball this season and St. Louis didn’t have a need at first base. Carpenter’s excellence and the presence of Jose Martinez made Voit expendable, and the Yankees pounced. On July 28th, the Yankees sent Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos to the Cardinals for Voit and international bonus money.

The Wally Pipping of Greg Bird

On one hand, the Yankees stuck with Greg Bird way too long this year. He hit .199/.286/.386 (81 wRC+) in 311 plate appearances. Awful. Just awful. On the other hand, if the Yankees hadn’t stuck with Bird that long, they might not have ended up with Voit, and may’ve been worse off overall because they replaced Bird with someone else at midseason. The Yankees initially stuck with Bird after the Voit trade too. Voit went right to Triple-A after the trade. He then resurfaced for a quick five-game cameo in early August before heading back to Triple-A.

In the first three and a half weeks after the trade, Voit played five games with the Yankees (3-for-16) and nine games with Triple-A Scranton (9-for-29). Aaron Judge (wrist) and Gary Sanchez (groin) were on the disabled list and had been since prior to the trade deadline, and I was Mad Online the Yankees didn’t do more than add Luke Voit.

Shows what I know. Voit rejoined the Yankees for good in late August, when they went to Miami for a two-game interleague series and wanted an extra bench bat for the National League games. The Legend of Luke Voit began in earnest on August 24th, in the first game of a four-game weekend series in Baltimore. Voit went 3-for-5 with two homers that night. Two days later, he hit another homer. Four days after that, another homer. Two days later Voit started a streak in which he went deep in three consecutive games.

It wasn’t just the homers either. Voit played 16 games from August 24th through September 9th and he went hitless in only four of those games. One of the four was an 0-for-1 pinch-hitting appearance. Another was an 0-for-1 with two walks game. The dingers and the raw production gave Voit the first base job outright in September and he finished the season with a flourish. He went 4-for-4 with two homers against the Red Sox on September 19th. From that day on, he went 18-for-43 (.419) with seven homers in his final eleven games of the regular season.

Voit played with a ton of energy and he was, by no small margin, the most productive hitter traded at the deadline. By the end of the season he was taking regular turns as the No. 3 hitter between Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Voit of course started the AL Wild Card Game and of course had a hand in the win, driving in two insurance runs with a sixth inning triple that damn near left the ballpark.

That was a nine-pitch at-bat against Blake Treinen, who had an absurd season and held right-handed batters to a .123/.206/.166 (.171 wOBA) batting line with a 36.0% strikeout rate. Voit fouled away three two-strike pitches until Treinen make a mistake with the slider, and he punished it. His folk hero status had been cemented. We’ve seen plenty of guys do great things in small samples during the regular season (Shelley Duncan, anyone?). Have a moment like that in October though, and it’s hard for the fans to forget you.

Is This Sustainable?

“This is sustainable. He could be a really good hitter in this league,” said Aaron Boone in September. Cashman gave a more diplomatic “hard to answer on (the) sample size” answer when asked whether Voit is legit. I’ll say this much: I don’t expect Voit to repeat his .333/.405/.689 (194 wRC+) effort going forward. Almost no one does that. Super early 2019 projections have him at .262/.336/.459 (115 wRC+) next year, for what it’s worth.

Voit’s post-trade production was not a fluke. Not a fluke in the sense that he played way over his head. Voit punished the ball with the Yankees and was rewarded appropriately. A total of 336 hitters put at least 50 balls in play after the trade deadline. Voit’s ranks among those 336 hitters:

  • Exit Velocity: 93.0 mph (sixth highest)
  • wOBA: .458 (third highest behind Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts)
  • Expected wOBA: .450 (second highest behind Yelich)

Voit had a 47.3% hard contact rate and a 34.4% ground ball rate with the Yankees. He crushed the ball and he got it airborne. Do that and good things tend to happen, and good things sure happened when Voit was at the plate for the Yankees. His xwOBA, which is based on exit velocity and launch angle and things like that, was right in line with his actual wOBA. Voit was rewarded for the contact he made. He wasn’t living off bloops and grounders with eyes.

Given his statistical track record, Voit’s ability to hit the ball extremely hard is very real. Say what you want about exit velocity — I know I’m tired of hearing about it after every batted ball — but you can’t fake it. You can either hit the ball that hard consistently or you can’t. Voit can. He showed the ability to go the other way — his 20.4% opposite field rate with the Yankees was lower than I would’ve guessed — and work counts. They were professional at-bats, as broadcasters like to say.

There are two things working against Voit going forward. One, he put up the bulk of those numbers in September, and September has a way of playing tricks on you. Call-ups and teams with nothing to play for — there are a lot of teams with nothing to play for late in the season these days — can skew numbers. And two, Voit won’t catch teams by surprise next year. They’re going to make adjustments and he’ll have to adjust back.

In fact, it’s already happening. The Red Sox attacked Voit with high-velocity right-handed fastballs whenever possible in the ALDS, and for good reason. They give him fits. Here are some numbers, with the MLB averages for right-handed hitters vs. right-handed pitchers in parentheses:

AVG ISO xwOBA Whiffs-per-Swings
Voit vs. all RHB fastballs .276 (.259) .483 (.195) .558 (.348) 32.4% (21.2%)
Voit vs. RHB fastballs <95 mph .462 (.275) .846 (.226) .800 (.373) 16.7% (18.5%)
Voit vs. RHB fastballs =>95 mph .154 (.236) .231 (.144) .377 (.309) 45.5% (24.9%)

Voit’s time with the Yankees was a small sample size to start with. Only 148 plate appearances. Now we’re slicing and dicing it even more, so take this all with a giant grain of salt. Right now, all we know is that in his limited time with the Yankees, Voit hammered right-handed fastballs below 94 mph and struggled to make contact against right-handed fastballs at 95 mph and above. Moreso than the typical righty hitter. Hence the Red Sox pounding him with righty heaters in the ALDS, and his 3-for-13 (.231) showing with zero extra-base hits.

Point is, Voit hits the ball really hard and that is a skill you can not teach. He has it and it drew the Yankees to him. Whether he can remain productive outside the pathological liar that is September and once the league adjusts to him remains to be seen. His performance this past season happened and it helped the Yankees win games. There’s no taking it away. The tools are there for Voit to remain productive going forward. Perhaps not that productive, but productive. Now it’s up to him to do it.

What’s Next?

Both Cashman and Boone stopped short of naming Voit the 2019 starting first baseman during their end-of-season press conferences, which makes sense. No need to declare an uncertain position settled before the offseason. “He certainly came over here and was given that opportunity and took it and kicked the door in. I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels,” Boone said.

At the very least, Voit earned a chance to win a big league job in Spring Training. He’s a late-bloomer — Voit turns 28 in February — and the Yankees owe it to themselves to find out whether Voit can be their late-bloomer. Their Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar. Cruz didn’t get his first opportunity as an everyday big leaguer until his age 28 season. Ditto Aguilar. These defensive challenged right-handed bats can get written off quickly. Every so often they surprise.

There is a lot of offseason left to go and, even though pitching and a Didi Gregorius replacement are the top priorities, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yankees bring in another first baseman. Maybe they’ll go big and trade for Paul Goldschmidt. That’d be cool. Or perhaps they’ll opt for a lower cost pickup to compete with Voit (and Bird?) in Spring Training. Either way, Voit was awesome this year and I expect him to get a chance to prove he can do it against next year.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Yusei Kikuchi

by

(Kyodo)

The Yankees came into the offseason needing three starting pitchers. They’ve since added two: James Paxton and CC Sabathia. Paxton and Sabathia join incumbents Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. Well, Sabathia is an incumbent himself. You know what I mean. Point is, the Yankees needed three starters, they’ve added two, and that means they still need one more.

“Once we had CC in the fold we felt we had to at least get two more guys back into this as imports, and so obviously Paxton now is one of those,” said Cashman during a recent radio interview. “We’ll continue our focus on the rotation, whether that’s a free agent or trade … I don’t know how much longer it’s going to take between the free agents or trades and stuff like that, but we’re going to stay engaged.”

The Yankees have remained connected to the usual suspects (Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, Corey Kluber, etc.) since the Paxton trade and I’m sure they’ve checked in on some not-so-usual suspects (Wade Miley? Gio Gonzalez?) as well. It seems the Yankees have their sights set fairly high though. They’re not looking for a back-end innings guy. They want an impact pitcher like, well, Corbin or Happ or Kluber.

Among the other pitchers the Yankees have at least discussed internally this offseason is lefty Yusei Kikuchi of the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Pro Baseball. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual,” said Hal Steinbrenner recently, which hardly qualifies as interest or an endorsement. Kikuchi will be posted this offseason though, so he’s a potential target. Let’s dig in to see whether he’s a fit for the Yankees.

Background

Kikuchi, 27, flirted with skipping NPB entirely and signing with an MLB team as an international free agent out of high school back in the day. The Yankees were among the teams to touch base with him. NPB is very much against Japanese high schoolers jumping straight to MLB, that’s not a precedent they want set, and they were able to convince Kikuchi to stay in Japan. The Lions drafted him and he’s been with Seibu ever since. Kikuchi owns a career 2.81 ERA in 1,035.1 innings in parts of eight NPB seasons.

Performance

Because of injuries and general young player struggles, it took a few years for Kikuchi to settle in and establish himself as one of the top pitchers in NPB. Here are his 2016-18 numbers (with a big shoutout to 1.02 – Essence of Baseball):

IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9 WAR
2016 143 2.58 3.66 21.3 11.3 48.7 0.44 +3.7
2017 187.2 1.97 2.87 29.5 6.7 50.3 0.77 +6.6
2018 163.2 3.08 3.50 23.4 6.9 53.2 0.88 +5.6
2018 NPB AVG
 – 3.90 4.21 18.6 8.5 46.9 0.97 –

Context time! First and foremost, Kikuchi played in NPB’s Pacific League, the DH league, so his numbers have not been skewed by facing the opposing pitcher. Secondly, park factors indicate MetLife Dome is the most neutral park in NPB. It is slightly pitcher friendly but not enough to be significant. Kikuchi’s park adjusted ERA and FIP this past season were both about 20% better than league average.

Third, there are way more balls in play in NPB than MLB. Generally speaking, the obsession with launch angle has yet to catch on in NPB. Because of that, the league average strikeout rate is still relatively low. Kikuchi’s 23.4% strikeout rate this past season was 26% better than league average. That’s like an MLB starter putting up a 28.1% strikeout rate.

Fourth, Kikuchi has played in front of some strong defenses. In 2018 the Lions led NPB in UZR (+68.5) and ranked third in Defensive Efficiency (.703). Last year they led in UZR (+41.7) and were second in Defensive Efficiency (+.708). It’s hard to know exactly how much that helped Kikuchi — he is high strikeout pitcher, after all — but I reckon it did help to some degree. Just something to keep in mind.

And fifth, Kikuchi did not allow much hard contact in 2018. This past season he had a 27.7% hard contact rate, which is comfortably below the 32.1% league average. Kikuchi had a 34.7% hard contact rate last year and a 31.2% hard contact rate the year before, so this season is the exception rather than the rule. He’s been closer to the league average throughout his career. Overall though, the numbers are good. Not overwhelming, but good.

Current Stuff

Relative to pro baseball players, Kikuchi is short and stocky at 6-foot-0 and 220 pounds. Since 1990, a completely arbitrary endpoint, only 15 lefties standing no taller than 6-foot-0 have racked up at least +10 WAR. Huh. Four of them were full-time relievers. Maybe that’s why the Yankees traded the 6-foot-0 Justus Sheffield? Eh, whatever. I guess this means height is not on Kikuchi’s side.

Anyway, the scouting reports (including this one, this one, and this one) say Kikuchi is a fastball/slider guy who also mixes in a curveball and a changeup. A few weeks ago Jon Morosi spoke to former big leaguer Frank Herrmann about Kikuchi. Here’s what Herrmann said about playing against him in Japan:

“When we have faced him, we have hit him pretty well, and that’s with a heavy left-handed lineup,” Herrmann told MLB.com. “The [velocity] and sharpness of the slider seems to be down from last year. The one positive I’ve seen from him is that is he’s becoming more than a [two-pitch] guy, which he predominantly was last season. He will now flip in a curveball early in the count and uses his changeup to guys that [are] on his fastball. Last year, there was never a need to get away from the [fastball/slider] combo.

…

“They all mention that his work ethic and competitiveness are top-notch,” Herrmann said. “It’s also known that he really wants to go to MLB and compete against the best.”

The comp game is dangerous because it creates unrealistic expectations, but, for what it’s worth, Patrick Corbin has been the most common comp for Kikuchi these last few weeks. It fits. They’re both lefties who rely heavily on their fastball and slider, and will flip in a curveball and changeup from time to time. Corbin is three inches taller though, which is not nothing. The extra downhill plane helps.

There is not as much velocity in NPB as there is in MLB. Not even close, really. The average NPB fastball clocked in at 89.4 mph in 2018. Kikuchi averaged 91.5 mph and that was the third highest in the league. That’s all well and good, but 91.5 mph plays much differently in MLB as it does NPB. The MLB average fastball this past season was 93.2 mph overall and 92.2 mph for lefties. Crazy. A 91.5 mph fastball looks very different to MLB hitters than it does NPB hitters.

That isn’t to say Kikuchi can’t succeed in MLB with a 91 mph heater. Lots of guys do it, including Corbin. Everything works together and the slider helps keep hitters off the fastball. Here are some numbers on Kikuchi’s arsenal over the years:

Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup
% Velo R/100 % Velo R/100 % Velo R/100 % Velo R/100
2016 55.9 91.4 -0.24 27.7 82.8 +1.43 10.6 71.2 +1.96 5.8 78.4 +2.03
2017 56.3 92.3 +1.66 28.5 85.6 +1.13 9.3 73.3 -0.40 4.0 81.3 +0.32
2018 48.6 91.5 +0.45 34.7 85.7 +1.16 11.1 74.1 -0.50 5.3 79.3 +0.08

Kikuchi’s fastball velocity was down in 2018 compared to 2017, but it was right in line with 2016, so is 2017 the outlier? Also, he used the fastball less than 50% of the time in 2018 — not coincidentally, his slider usage has been ticking up — so he’s embracing the anti-fastball lifestyle. Bottom line, Kikuchi has thrown roughly 85% fastballs and sliders the last three years. They are his go-to pitches.

The run values (R/100 is runs above average for every 100 pitches thrown) indicate his slider has been a true plus pitch the last three years. The fastball has been up-and-down — it’s not a coincidence his fastball posted its highest run value the year he had his best velocity — while the curve and change have been kinda okay. They’ve hovered right around average the last two years in small samples.

There are shockingly few videos available of 2018 Kikuchi. Instead, here’s video of an August 2017 start in which he struck out eleven and set a new NPB record by throwing a 98 mph fastball, the fastest ever by a left-hander. (I have no idea if the record still stands.) Come for Kikuchi looking nasty, stay for former Yankee Zelous Wheeler striking out three times on three different pitches:

If nothing else, the video shows that Kikuchi threw quite hard at one point and that his slider can be a devastating pitch. The slider Wheeler struck out on at the 0:54 mark is as nasty as any left-handed slider you’ll find in MLB. That’s an Andrew Miller at his best slider. A slider that good helps a fastball play better than its velocity.

Also, Kikuchi is into analytics, which is pretty cool. Specifically, he uses Trackman data (Statcast) to make sure his mechanics are where they need to be. Here’s what he told Jim Allen back in June:

“Now I check each game’s data with our analysts, three or four points, my release point, my extension and so on,” he said Saturday, a night after he threw seven scoreless innings against the Pacific League-rival Lotte Marines. “It allows me to make adjustments, and as I make adjustments and see how they go in games, I get a sense for where I need to be.”

“My release point has been higher recently. I noticed in my game against the Giants (on June 8). It turned out to be 9 centimeters higher than a year ago. I worked on that by tilting my torso slightly and got it down to around 3 cm higher than last year in my last start against Chunichi (June 15). I haven’t seen the data for last night’s game, but I would bet that in my final inning, I was within a centimeter of the release point I want, which is 167 cm.”

“In the past, all I had to rely on was video. This is completely different because just looking at a video didn’t give you an exact figure. In the end it was always about feel.”

Based on the written scouting reports, the numbers, and the little video we have, Kikuchi works with an average-ish MLB fastball that might even be a touch worse when he goes from the once-a-week NPB schedule to a once-every-fifth day MLB schedule, a knockout slider, and a show-me curveball and changeup. The slider is the key pitch. That’s the moneymaker.

Given the difference in styles of play, it is not unreasonable to expect Kikuchi’s strikeout rate to tick up once he moves to MLB. All the recent Japanese imports struck out more batters in their first MLB season than they did in their last NPB season:

  • Masahiro Tanaka: 22.3 K% to 26.0 K%
  • Kenta Maeda: 21.3 K% to 25.0 K%
  • Shohei Ohtani: 27.6 K% to 29.9 K%

The consensus is Kikuchi is a notch below Tanaka and Ohtani (and Yu Darvish) and closer to Maeda. Tanaka and Ohtani (and Darvish) were seen as potential aces. Maeda was more of a mid-rotation starter. That’s where Kikuchi is believed to fit. A mid-rotation guy rather than a rotation headliner. Mid-rotation starters are important! You need those guys. And hey, everyone could be wrong. Maybe Kikuchi will be an ace. It seems he’ll be something less than that though.

Injury History

MLB injury data is readily available. NPB injury data is not. Kikuchi does have an injury history — an arm injury history at that — and here’s what I’ve been able to piece together:

  • 2010: Missed entire season with shoulder trouble.
  • 2013: Missed part of the season with shoulder trouble.
  • 2016: Missed two months with a right side injury.
  • 2018: Missed time with shoulder tightness.

When the Yankees made the Paxton trade last week, he said the “good news, so far, is all the injuries I’ve had haven’t reoccurred.” Kikuchi’s injuries have been reoccurring. He’s missed time with shoulder problems in three different seasons now, including 2018, and they date all the way back to 2010. The side injury seems to be one time thing. Maybe he pulled an oblique or something? It happens. Ongoing shoulder trouble though? Eek.

I guess the good news is Kikuchi has not had surgery, as best I can tell. Once you start cutting into shoulders, things get messy. I’ve said this countless times before and I’m going to say it again: The best predictor of future injury is past injury. A guy like Kikuchi, who’s had shoulder trouble throughout his career, is probably going to have shoulder trouble again at some point going forward.

It’s worth nothing that, according to Joel Sherman, Kikuchi came to the United States two weeks ago to take a pre-signing physical. That’s standard nowadays. Tanaka, Maeda, and Ohtani all took a physical before being posted. That allowed teams to review their medical information up front and also save time later. The two sides won’t have to squeeze in a physical before the end of the negotiating period. Kikuchi’s shoulder will surely be scrutinized.

How Does The Posting System Work?

Late last week the Lions announced Kikuchi will be posted on Monday, December 3rd, and his 30-day negotiating period will begin on Wednesday, December 5th. It’ll end on Thursday, January 3rd. “My talks with my agent are moving forward, and we’ve concluded this is the best day to do it,” said Kikuchi to the Japan Times last week.

The posting system has undergone several revisions in recent years that have made it more favorable to MLB teams and more favorable to the player. NPB teams got hosed. Now the player gets 30 days to negotiate with all 30 teams like a true free agent. And the release fee, rather than be set by the player’s former team in Japan, is now a percentage of his contract. The release fee breakdown:

  • Contract worth $25M or less: 20% of total guarantee
  • Contract worth $25M to $50M: $5M plus 17.5% of guarantee over $25M
  • Contract worth $50M or more: $9.375M plus 15% of guarantee over $50M
  • Additional 15% of all bonuses and escalators earned, and options exercised

Let’s say that, hypothetically, Kikuchi signs a six-year deal worth $60M with $5M in bonuses per season and a $15M club option for a seventh year. The Lions would receive a $10.875M release fee up front ($9.375M plus 15% of the guarantee over $50M) plus potentially an extra $750,000 per year (15% of the $5M) if he maxes out his bonuses. And, if the $15M option is exercised, that’s another $2.25M down the line (15% of the option).

Long story short, Kikuchi will be able to negotiate with any team for a 30-day period, and the team that signs him has to pay a release fee as laid out above. Every team can afford it. They’re just really good at pretending they can’t. As far as the Yankees are concerned, only the contract counts against the luxury tax. The release fee does not. The same was true with Tanaka back in the day.

Contract Estimates

I don’t think any of the recent Japanese imports set a contract benchmark for Kikuchi. Tanaka was very highly regarded and that led to a seven-year, $155M contract. Maeda settled for eight years and $25M guaranteed with $81.5M (!) in workload bonuses due to a preexisting elbow injury. Ohtani was limited to a minor league contract because his age made him subject to MLB’s international spending rules. None fit as a Kikuchi benchmark.

It’s possible Hyun-Jin Ryu’s original six-year, $36M contract with the Dodgers could serve as a contract benchmark for Kikuchi, but keep in mind that contract was negotiated under a different posting system. Los Angeles placed the high bid for Ryu’s negotiating rights and he could only talk to them. He had limited leverage. Here are some Kikuchi contract estimates:

Two very different predictions! One is basically double the other in terms of annual salary. Split the difference and it’s five years and $10M per season. That would be a bargain for a 27-year-old lefty with a swing-and-miss slider who put up Kikuchi’s NPB numbers in MLB. Kikuchi didn’t put up his numbers in MLB though. He put them up in NPB and there’s an element of the unknown here. And there’s his history of shoulder trouble too.

I should mention that, because he was subject to the international spending rules, the Angels will get six years of control with Ohtani like any other rookie. I don’t believe that will be the case for Kikuchi, however, because he is not subject to those international rules. My reference here is Tony Barnette. Texas acquire Barnette from the Yakult Swallows through the posting system in December 2015 and signed him to a two-year deal with an option. They declined the option last offseason and he became a free agent despite having only two years of service time.

Because of that, I think Kikuchi will become a free agent after the contract he signs this winter expires regardless of service time. If he signs a four-year deal, he’ll become a free agent in four years, etc. Not counting Ohtani, five NPB starting pitchers have come to MLB through the posting system. All five received at least four years and four of the five received at least five years. Kikuchi’s going to get good term this offseason. His contract will have some length to it. The dollars? Who knows.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

Man, I don’t know. On one hand, a 27-year-old southpaw who misses bats would fit nicely into that open rotation slot. Especially since his contract could be (will likely be) a bargain compared to what a similar MLB pitcher would get in free agency. Even if Kikuchi is a third or fourth starter long-term, a guy who settles in around +2 WAR per year, that’s someone worth bringing into the organization. Those guys are tougher to find than you’d think.

On the other hand, Kikuchi has no MLB track record and a history of shoulder problems, and that’s always scary. And the Yankees wouldn’t just be bringing him over into MLB either. They’d be bringing him into Yankee Stadium and the AL East, and that might be the most pitcher unfriendly environment in baseball. Every pitcher is risky. Kikuchi carries additional risk given his injury history and lack of an MLB track record. For a guy who might top out as a mid-rotation starter, it might be a little too much risk for a win now team.

The Yankees did scout Kikuchi this past season. How much? We don’t know, exactly. The Yankees were all over Tanaka in the weeks and months leading up to his posting. The rumors started in May 2013, eight months before Tanaka was actually posted. We haven’t seen nearly as many reports about Kikuchi now as Tanaka back then. That doesn’t mean the Yankees aren’t interested in Kikuchi. It just means there are fewer reports about it. They might be keeping things closer to the vest.

Also, we don’t know anything about Kikuchi’s preferences. Does he want to go a contender? The West Coast? A small market? Wherever the largest contract offer comes from? I’m not sure anyone except Kikuchi, his family, and his agent (Scott Boras), know that. As we learned with Ohtani last year, the Yankees could be ruled out before the chase even begins. Kikuchi may prefer an entirely different situation. I guess we’ll find out.

Personally, I prefer signing Corbin or even Happ to signing Kikuchi. I am intrigued by the possibility of nabbing a younger Corbin on a smaller contract, but, ultimately, the history of shoulder trouble scares me, and I think the Yankees need more of a sure thing. They are ready to win and need players they are reasonably certain can help them win right now. Kikuchi is too much of an unknown for my liking.