2018 Season Preview Archives - River Avenue Blues

The Rest of MLB [2018 Season Preview]

March 28, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

There’s some talent in this frame (Christian Peterson/Getty Images)

We’re just one day from the end of the offseason and the long-awaited beginning to the journey for the 2018 Yankees. That means it’s time to wrap up our season preview series. Shout-out to Mike and Domenic for their great work over the last month.

So for the final post in this set, take this as a chance to shake off the otherwise myopic focus on the everyday issues for the Bombers and an opportunity to look into the wider expanse of baseball as we check out the rest of the league.

NL East

Who will win? Nationals.
Who could surprise? Phillies (Maybe Mets?).
Who will disappoint? What’s left of the Marlins.
Players to watch? Bryce Harper and Ronald Acuna Jr.

There are two givens in the National League East: The Nationals will be good and the Marlins will be awful. The Nationals go into this season on the precipice of destruction yet perhaps also glory. All of that rides on the status of Bryce Harper, whose contract is up after the season and therefore makes the Nationals’ 2018 that much more important. The team doesn’t lack reinforcements around him with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and an actual semblance of a bullpen, not to mention Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon on offense.

On the flip side, the Marlins … ugh. If you aren’t a baseball glutton such as myself, please avoid watching this team. Sure, prospects and the Home Run Machine and a few former Yankees, but this team isn’t worth the time.

In between, the Phillies seem on the brink of opening their contention window, particularly after adding Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana this offseason. Add them to a young core of Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery and Aaron Nola and you really might have something if you can get past a lack of pitching depth.

The Mets have the talent to win 90+ games with their rotation mostly healthy for now, but we’ll see how long the crosstown rivals can put it together. As for the Braves, they’re waiting for their exciting crop of pitchers to reach the majors, which likely won’t be this season. In the meantime, enjoy Ronald Acuna and everything he could be (and Freddie Freeman if you haven’t forgotten about him).

NL Central

Who will win? Cubs.
Who could surprise? Brewers.
Who will disappoint? Usually the Reds.
Players to watch? Marcell Ozuna and Luis Castillo.

Count me as someone who was quite impressed by the Cubs’ offseason. They saw their main weakness in the rotation and bullpen and added Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek. You could do a lot worse. Their core from the 2016 World Series is still intact minus Arrieta, but Darvish and Jose Quintana make up for his absence.

The Cardinals and Brewers are prime wild card candidates. Each, like the Yankees, acquired a member of the Marlins’ 2017 outfield with Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich, respectively. The Cards have a rotation that can carry an average-ish offense and make up for a below-average bullpen and should be wild card favorites. I’m less sold on the Brewers with their rotation, but they should be exciting despite projections.

The Reds and Pirates remain mired at the bottom of the division. The Reds’ rotation remains a brutish hellscape, though now it has a glimmer of hope with Luis Castillo. No, not that Luis Castillo. The one who can throw 100 mph and drop some nasty offspeed stuff. Pittsburgh has plenty of issues after trading Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole and it will be tough to round back into playoff form. A lot rides on the development of Tyler Glasnow and his towering frame.

NL West

Who will win? Dodgers.
Who could surprise? Padres? This division doesn’t have too much surprise in it.
Who will disappoint? Giants. Definitely the Giants.
Players to watch? Jon Gray and Archie Bradley.

Fresh off making it to Game 7 of the World Series, the Dodgers appear ready to book another run this year before spending big after getting under the luxury tax. However, there are some red flags, namely starting Matt Kemp in left field (why!?!) and a little less pitching depth than last season. Still, Clayton Kershaw is there and Cody Bellinger could provide a thunderous encore to his rookie season.

There’s a clear middle class to this division, the two participants in the 2017 NL Wild Card Game. The Diamondbacks replaced J.D. Martinez with Steven Souza Jr. and are doubling down on a rotation that carried them to the NLDS. Archie Bradley still anchors the bullpen and Paul Goldschmidt remains wildly underrated. Colorado will have to make up for surprisingly meh offense at Coors Field with a young pitching staff. They added to their bullpen, though it will be up to Jon Gray and co. to really make this team go.

At the bottom, there’s the Giants and Padres. The Padres are on the upswing with Eric Hosmer in tow and a boatload of prospects set to debut in the next few seasons. The Giants? In a post-Madison Bumgarner injury world, it’s time to recalibrate expectations. Their offense is old and hardly world-beaters, but it’s their rotation that concerns me. Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija are hurt and they couldn’t afford that. Derek Holland is in the initial rotation for them and Ty Blach is facing Kershaw on Opening Day. Good luck with that!

The future and present of second base (Bob Levey/Getty)

AL Central

Who will win? Indians.
Who could surprise? White Sox.
Who will disappoint? Tigers, Royals.
Players to watch? Byron Buxton and Yoan Moncada.

This appears to be the weakest division in baseball, but it’s strong at the top. Don’t overlook the Indians! In our Yankees-centric bubble, the Red Sox and Astros are the most talked about competitors, yet the Indians remain formidable. That entire pitching staff is still legit and their offense is nothing to sneeze at. In that division, they should ride to 95+ wins.

The Twins shouldn’t be a surprise, but they’re a prime wild card contender. Their pitching staff got a needed boost with Lance Lynn and Addison Reed, though it’s hardly great. What’s notable is their offense, which added Logan Morrison and still has Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano.

And then there are the three rebuilding teams. The White Sox’s pitching staff is a series of question marks, prospects and has-beens, but their prospect pool is either on the cusp or in the majors. Grab the popcorn and get ready to watch Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. The Royals are a shell of their 2015 selves and would be an easy choice for last place if you couldn’t say the same thing about the Tigers, a team set for many years of rebuilding. I guess Miguel Cabrera can still hit some?

AL West

Who will win? Astros by a lot.
Who could surprise? Athletics.
Who will disappoint? Rangers.
Players to watch? Shohei Ohtani (duh) and Dee Gordon (Matt Olson too!).

The Astros are going to be so freaking good. So so good. Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Justin Verlander, George Springer. Ugh, so much talent there and that’s just the tippy top. The only thing as exciting as the Astros is the potential Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles. I know he’s had a rough spring. Even so, watching someone venture into two-way territory is must-watch and he’s doing it on the same team as Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons. I’m in!

The Mariners have an aging core and a team that, if fully healthy, could peak as a wild card team. But Erasmo Ramirez and David Phelps are already hurt (yes, they were/are counting on both) and Felix Hernandez has a lot of innings on his arm. I’m still down to watch Dee Gordon try centerfield and get my fix of age-35 Robinson Cano.

The Athletics have some interesting pieces, namely Matts Olson and Chapman. Olson hits the ball a mile and Chapman plays some gnarly third base and should be a Gold Glove favorite. Their rotation is weak/young, but I’m excited by the team’s offensive potential. The Rangers, on the other hand, just don’t have too much that interests me. However, I will sign up to watch all the Joey Gallo dingers and Adrian Beltre-ness the team will provide.

The Rest of the AL East [2018 Season Preview]

March 28, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Future Yankee Manny Machado. (John Minchillo/AP)

The Yankees begin the 2018 season tomorrow, so it’s time to preview their division rivals. Here’s a look ahead at the rest of the AL East.

Baltimore Orioles

2017 Record: 75-87

Notable Additions: Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb, Colby Rasmus, Danny Valencia

Notable Subtractions: Welington Castillo, Ryan Flaherty, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Miley, Seth Smith

The Buck Showalter Orioles had garnered a reputation as perennial overachievers over the last half-decade, finishing at or above .500 each year from 2012 through 2016, and making three playoff appearances along the way. They were a cumulative 16 games above their Pythagorean record, owing largely to their ability to roll out a strong bullpen each and every season, as well as a propensity for clutch hitting. That stretch of competence came to an end last season, though, as the Orioles finished last in the AL East for the first time since 2011.

What Went Right Last Year?

Not all that much, really. Dylan Bundy was healthy and mostly effective for a full season, Trey Mancini and Jonathan Schoop broke out, and the bullpen continued to turn anonymous journeymen into studs (see: Richard Bleier and his 1.99 ERA in 63.1 IP). That’s about it.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

The Orioles had arguably the worst rotation in all of baseball, with only one starter posting an ERA under 4.68, and only one starter averaging 6-plus IP per start – and it was the aforementioned Bundy who achieved both. They also had to deal with significant regression from Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo, which meant that they lacked the offensive oomph to bail out their shoddy starting pitching with any sort of regularity.

Oh, and Zach Britton missed two months, tore his Achilles, and is out until at least May.

A Potential Lineup

Tim Beckham, 3B
Jonathan Schoop, 2B
Manny Machado, SS
Adam Jones, CF
Chris Davis, 1B
Trey Mancini, LF
Colby Rasmus, RF
Danny Valencia, DH
Chance Sisco, C

Showalter and Co. are counting on bounce-back seasons across the board this year, as the majority of the lineup remains the same. Rasmus is the biggest offensive addition from outside of the organization, and he did quite well with the Rays last year (139 OPS+ in 129 PA). Of course, his season ended rather abruptly when he decided to walk away from the game. Valencia made the Opening Day roster, as well, and will likely DH for the time being, as Mark Trumbo is on the disabled list with a hamstring injury.

The Probable Rotation

Dylan Bundy, RHP
Alex Cobb, RHP
Andrew Cashner, RHP
Kevin Gausman, RHP
Chris Tillman, RHP

Cobb was a quality signing for the Orioles, even if they somehow managed to pay more than was expected for the 30-year-old even after the market collapsed. And Cashner, likelihood of regression aside, is an upgrade over the Wade Mileys of the world. This rotation doesn’t look much better than passable, but even that would be a massive upgrade for the team.

The Bullpen

The bullpen was a strength last year, and there’s no real reason to expect otherwise going forward. Britton is out until at least May, which isn’t great, but Brad Brach held down the fort when he was out last year, and he will be expected to do so again this year.

Ephemera

This might be the Orioles last hurrah, as Britton, Jones, and Machado are all free agents after this year.

Boston Red Sox

2017 Record: 93-69

Notable Additions: J.D. Martinez

Notable Subtractions: Fernando Abad, Doug Fister, Addison Reed, Chris Young

The Red Sox won 93 games, won the AL East, and lost in the ALDS for the second year in a row, affording them a nice bit of symmetry in Year One Post-Ortiz.

What Went Right Last Year?

Chris Sale and Drew Pomeranz were one of the best one-two punches in the game, Craig Kimbrel may’ve been the best closer in the game, and rookies Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers were as good as advertised. Their pitching staff was terrific as a whole, finishing tied for third in the majors in park-adjusted ERA.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

Dustin Pedroia and David Price got hurt again, and Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackie Bradley Jr. regressed. And their designated hitters combined to hit an almost perfectly average .244/.327/.419, which represents a staggering drop-off from what was once their greatest advantage.

A Potential Lineup

Mookie Betts, RF
Andrew Benintendi, LF
Hanley Ramirez, 1B
J.D. Martinez, DH
Rafael Devers, 3B
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Eduardo Nunez, 2B
Christian Vazquez, C
Jackie Bradley Jr., CF

Dustin Pedroia (knee) is out indefinitely, as he’s still at least a few weeks away from extended Spring Training. The lineup nevertheless looks quite strong, particularly if you buy into a few bouncebacks and continued growth from Benintendi and Devers. And Martinez really ties it all together, giving them the middle-of-the-order presence that they desperately missed last season.

The Probable Rotation

Chris Sale, LHP
David Price, LHP
Rick Porcello, RHP
Hector Velazquez, RHP
Brian Johnson, LHP

Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Steven Wright will all open the season on the disabled list, and Wright will serve a 15-game suspension for domestic violence once activated. That means that Velazquez – a 29-year-old rookie signed out of Mexico last year – and Johnson will be in the team’s rotation for at least a couple of turns. Both were solid in limited duty for the Red Sox last year, but this is serious test of the team’s depth early in the season. If the rotation is going to be a strength as many are predicting, these guys need to get healthy and stay healthy.

The Bullpen

Kimbrel is back as the team’s closer, and I’m sure the Red Sox are looking forward to a full season’s worth of Carson Smith. They acquired him from the Mariners in December of 2015 with the hopes of forming their own version of the super bullpen, but he has thrown just 9.1 IP around injuries since then. If Smith is healthy and pitches like he did in Seattle, this team will be in good shape in the late innings.

Ephemera

Alex Cora is just the eleventh Latin American manager in baseball history, and the second Puerto Rican to hold that position.

Tampa Bay Rays

2017 Record: 80-82

Notable Additions: Christian Arroyo, C.J. Cron, Carlos Gomez, Daniel Hudson, Denard Span

Notable Subtractions: Alex Cobb, Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Jake Odorizzi, Steven Souza Jr.

Last year was quietly the fourth year in a row that the Rays finished below .500, and their reputation for being one of the smartest organizations in the game has faded into the background. They’ve made some puzzling moves in the last few years (no doubt with the financial bottom line in mind), and that was taken to something of an extreme this off-season, as people questioned their returns (or lack thereof) for Corey Dickerson, Jake Odorizzi, and Steven Souza Jr. And, while the Evan Longoria deal made some sense as he deals with his decline, this team is in search of a new face.

What Went Right Last Year?

Logan Morrison broke out in a big way, combining with Dickerson and Souza to give the Rays a potent heart of the order, Alex Cobb performed quite well in his first full season post-TJS, and Jake Faria and Blake Snell looked good in their first full big league seasons. And the Rays actually bought at the trade deadline, adding Lucas Duda and others in late-July.

Morrison, Dickerson, Souza, Cobb, and Duda are now playing for other teams.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

Kevin Kiermaier suffered a fractured hip and missed about forty-percent of the season, Chris Archer continued to be frustratingly average, Brad Miller regressed heavily, Matt Duffy missed the entire season, and Longoria had the worst offensive season of his career.

A Potential Lineup

Denard Span, DH
Matt Duffy, 3B
Kevin Kiermaier, CF
Carlos Gomez, RF
Brad Miller, 2B
Wilson Ramos, C
C.J. Cron, 1B
Adeiny Hechavarria, SS
Mallex Smith, LF

The first thought that pops into my head is that this is probably a damn good defense. Unfortunately, my intent here is to talk about the offense – and there doesn’t appear to be much hitting to be had here. ZiPS only projects Miller (103) and Kiermaier (100) to finish with an average or better wRC+, and it’s difficult to come up with a good argument against that. And their best offensive prospects, Jake Bauers (1B) and Willy Adames (SS) don’t profile as middle-of-the-order types.

The Probable Rotation

Chris Archer, RHP
Blake Snell, LHP
Nate Eovaldi, RHP
Jake Faria, RHP
¯\_(?)_/¯

Injuries to top prospect Brent Honeywell and former top prospect Jose De Leon have forced the Rays to be creative with their pitching, which means they’re going with a four-man rotation. The fifth slot will still exist, but it will be a bullpen game. That’s how the playoffs shook out to some degree, so there’s some precedent, but its viability in a full season remains to be seen – especially when one of the four starters is Eovaldi, whose last regular season start was August 10, 2016. Barring some miraculous success, prospect Anthony Banda will probably be up sooner rather than later to take that fifth spot.

The Bullpen

With the exception of the addition of Daniel Hudson, this group is the same as it was last year. Alex Colome will close, Sergio Romo will set-up, and they’ll probably have a rotating cast of seventh, eight, and maybe even ninth relievers.

Ephemera

Jonny Venters had a 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP this Spring before being sent down to the Rays minor league camp. Why is this interesting? Venters hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2012, and has had, by his reckoning, three and a half Tommy John surgeries. It’s a great story.

Toronto Blue Jays

2017 Record: 76-86

Notable Additions: Tyler Clippard, Aledmys Diaz, Jaime Garcia, Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk, Seung-Hwan Oh, Yangervis Solarte

Notable Subtractions: Darwin Barney, Jose Bautista, Dominic Leone, Miguel Montero

The Blue Jays followed-up back-to-back trips to the ALCS with their first losing season since 2013, in a year that was all but defined by regression and injuries. They’ve quietly completed a low-key reload this off-season, though, so they may be worth keeping an eye on.

What Went Right Last Year?

Justin Smoak broke out, Josh Donaldson continued to be a superstar, Marcus Stroman pitched like an ace, and Roberto Osuna secured his place among the brightest young relievers in the game.

What Went Wrong Last Year?

Where to begin? Jose Bautista had, by far, the worst season of his career, with -1.7 bWAR; Donaldson, J.A. Happ, Russell Martin, Steve Pearce, Aaron Sanchez, and Troy Tulowitzki all missed significant time with injuries; and Marco Estrada had a 4.98 ERA.

A Potential Lineup

Curtis Granderson, LF
Devon Travis, 2B
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Justin Smoak, 1B
Russell Martin, C
Kendrys Morales, DH
Randal Grichuk, RF
Kevin Pillar, CF
Aledmys Diaz, SS

Tulowitzki is out with bone spurs in his ankle, and his return is still up in the air. The Blue Jays have solid depth at short, though, with Diaz likely to start and Solarte on the bench in a pinch. With health and a bit of luck (mostly with Smoak), this can be a potent lineup from top to bottom.

The Probable Rotation

Marcus Stroman, RHP
J.A. Happ, LHP
Marco Estrada, RHP
Aaron Sanchez, RHP
Jaime Garcia, LHP

Stroman is dealing with a nagging injury, and won’t be starting on Opening Day; he won’t hit the DL, though, and is expected to start the fourth game of the season. The rotation looks strong on-paper, and an optimist could see a great deal of potential here. Sanchez was ace-like before blisters doomed him, Estrada was really good in 2015 and 2016, and Garcia is among the best fifth starters in the game. This could be a real strength for the Blue Jays.

The Bullpen

Osuna is a terrific closer, and there is a good amount of depth behind him, too. Seung-Hwan Oh was a smart addition, and low-risk moves for veterans John Axford and old friend Tyler Clippard could help out a bit more than we suspect. I don’t know that the bullpen will be anything more than solid, but it doesn’t profile as bad.

Ephemera

This is Donaldson’s last year under contract, and he could be a difference maker in Toronto, or for some other team after the deadline if they’re stumbling.

The New Manager and Coaching Staff [2018 Season Preview]

March 27, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Managerial job security isn’t what it used to be. Joe Girardi, in his tenth season with the Yankees, led a team that exceeded all expectations to Game Seven of the ALCS last year. His reward? Unemployment. The Yankees cut ties with Girardi after the season and Hal Steinbrenner said he probably would’ve authorized the managerial change even if the Yankees had won the World Series. Ouch.

“We do not make changes at that level lightly, so it was a very difficult and challenging decision,” said Brian Cashman soon after it was announced Girardi would not be retained. “Easiest call would be plug and play and continue in safe harbor arena. I have never been safe harbor kind of person … Our issues and concerns were the ability to engage, fully communicate, and connect with the playing personnel.”

Rather than recycle an experienced big league manager or promote someone from within, the Yankees took a risk and named former Yankee Aaron Boone their new skipper. He has no prior coaching or managerial experience. None. Nada. Boone went from playing to the broadcast booth to managing. He reportedly blew the Yankees away during the interview and convinced Cashman & Co. that he’s the right guy for the job.

“I wanted this opportunity and I wanted this challenge. I wanted to be back on this side of things. I want to chase the prize,” said Boone to Mike Lupica earlier this month. “I’ll say it again, what pulled me back to this side of things was chasing that prize.”

That prize is, of course, a World Series championship, something Boone never won as a player. (The 2003 postseason was the only time he played in the postseason in his career.) And that’s the goal this year: Win the World Series. This is a win-now roster and a win-now organization. The Yankees brought a rookie manager into a situation where the goal is to be the last team standing, and, to be fair, they are not the only team in recent memory to do that. The Dodgers (Dave Roberts) and Nationals (Dave Martinez) both hired inexperienced managers in recent years.

Boone’s first Spring Training as manager went, well, like any other Spring Training. And that’s a good thing. It was business as usual. Nothing out of the ordinary happened — aside from that whole “forget to warm up Adam Warren” incident — and, to paraphrase Boone’s predecessor, that is what you want. A normal spring. By way of a preview, I have some thoughts and observations about the new manager.

1. Boone has a Torre-esque quality. Specifically his calm and the way he’s able to diffuse things with the media. Girardi was a great manager. He was not so great with the media, which is not insignificant. They can make your life miserable. Joe Torre’s best trait was, by far, the way he handled the media and diffused unfavorable situations. He was asked about whatever, he shot it down in a way that closed the book, and that was that. Girardi had a tendency to ramble and let things fester for a few days.

This spring Boone has been more Torre than Girardi when it comes to his daily briefings with the media. That Warren situation a few weeks back? It would’ve been easy for the rookie manager to blame someone else — calling down to the bullpen to tell a reliever to warm up is definitely something that gets delegated to a coach — but instead Boone took the blame, owned up to the mistake, and that was it. It was a non-issue going forward. Boone will be under the microscope all year and he could’ve shifted blame for that mistake. He owned it and that was that.

The Yankees hired Boone partly because of his communication skills, specifically his ability to interact with his players, but those communication skills also apply to the media. Torre was a master at keeping the peace and limiting distractions. Boone seems to have a similar quality, though, to be fair, he has yet to face a real crisis or even manage a regular season game. We’ll see if things change once the games start to count.

2. He’s willing to be open-minded. Everyone seems to be looking for the new Joe Maddon, that manager willing to be unconventional and try new things. Why? Because it’s different, mostly. Maddon has had success doing that but many managers have had success not doing that. To each his own. But many fans seem to want their team to hire the next Maddon. The next smart manager willing to think outside the box.

Boone, if nothing else, seems to be open-minded. He’s talked about batting Aaron Judge leadoff against lefties and Cashman confirmed that was a conversation initiated by Boone. Boone also said that, aside from Aroldis Chapman at closer, he plans to use his setup relievers interchangeably, rather than assign set roles or innings. He doesn’t want his speedy baserunners to risk outs on the bases because the Yankees have so much power. Who knows whether anything will actually come of this. For now, Boone is talking the talk. We’ll soon see if he walks the walk too.

3. Let’s talk about the rest of the coaching staff. When the Yankees cut ties with Girardi, they also cut ties with much of his coaching staff. Joe Espada left to join the Astros, and Tony Pena and Alan Cockrell weren’t retained. Pitching coach Larry Rothschild stuck around, as did assistant hitting coach Marcus Thames and bullpen coach Mike Harkey. Otherwise the coaching staff is full of fresh faces:

Bench Coach: Josh Bard (had been Dodgers bench coach)
Pitching Coach: Larry Rothschild (retained)
Hitting Coach: Marcus Thames (promoted from assistant hitting coach)
Assistant Hitting Coach: P.J. Pilittere (promoted from Triple-A Scranton)
First Base Coach: Reggie Willits (promoted from player development staff)
Third Base Coach: Phil Nevin (had been Giants third base coach)
Bullpen Coach: Mike Harkey (retained)
Catching Coach: Jason Brown (promoted from bullpen catcher)
Quality Control Coach: Carlos Mendoza (promoted from player development staff)

Bard was Boone’s teammate with the Indians back in the day, and he spent time with the Dodgers (another progressive analytics driven organization) in both the front office and on the coaching staff, so has experience on both sides of the table. He’ll help Boone quite a bit, I imagine. Nevin is more old school and that’s a necessary balance. Sometimes you need that tough love.

The coaches who were promoted from within all have experience with the young Yankees on the roster. Willits, formerly the minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator, worked with Judge during his days in the minors. He also worked with Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade and others. Mendoza was the minor league infield coordinator, meaning he spent time with Wade, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar. Pilittere has been a hitting coach at various levels over the years and he’s worked with pretty much every young Yankee at some point.

Brown, interestingly enough, is making the jump from bullpen catcher to full-time catching coach, meaning he will be tasked with helping Gary Sanchez improve his defense. He and Cashman spoke to Billy Witz about this recently:

“Everything we do as catchers starts from that stance, that setup, whether it’s the receiving, the blocking, the throwing,” said Jason Brown, the Yankees’ new catching coach. “That’s the foundation. It’s more natural for smaller guys. For Gary, it’s something that he’s been working on.”

…

(Cashman) also said Sanchez was uncomfortable with the pregame workout routine that last year’s catching coach, Tony Pena, and manager, Joe Girardi, had implemented.

In the second half of the season, Sanchez returned to the pregame regimen he had used in the minor leagues.

Hmmm. Last year Sanchez went from eleven passed balls in his first 61 games at catcher to five passed balls in his final 43 games, so he went from one every 5.45 games to one every 8.60 games. That’s better! Whether it’s real improvement or just official scoring noise is another matter. Either way, Brown is now the full-time catching coach. He is in charge of helping Sanchez (and Austin Romine) improve his catching.

The Yankees made sweeping changes to their coaching staff over the winter, but because so many of the new coaches came up from the farm system, they already have a working relationship with many players. They’re not coming in blind. Also, Bard caught CC Sabathia with the Indians and Nevin managed both Didi Gregorius and Brandon Drury in Triple-A while with the Diamondbacks, so there is some familiarity there as well. Clearly though, the Yankees wanted some new leadership and new voices in the clubhouse. They have that in Boone and they have it with his coaching staff.

* * *

My fearlessly bold prediction is the Yankees will win a lot of games this season because they are incredibly talented, and Boone will look like a genius manager. He’s in position to get a lot of credit. And, when things inevitably go wrong, he’ll get the blame. The Yankees will lose three straight at some point. They’ll score like four runs in a three-game series at some point. That’s baseball. When it happens, fingers will be pointed at Boone.

That comes with the territory. You sign up to be manager of the Yankees, you have to take the good with the bad. Boone is a baseball lifer. He knows the game. I have no doubt about that. I also have no doubt that he’s passionate about the job, that he cares for his players, and that he understands the expectations. Girardi was a very good manager and keeping him would’ve been justifiable. The Yankees decided to be bold though, and while Boone has shown some promising traits, this season will be one giant learning experience. It’s all new to him.

The Year Ahead In the Farm System [2018 Season Preview]

March 27, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

A year ago at this time we were all still kinda in awe of what Brian Cashman and the Yankees were able to accomplish in a relatively short period of time. Between trades and development, the Yankees built one of the top farm systems in the game, one with high-end prospects and depth. We were still waiting to see whether that rebuilt farm system translated to success on the field though.

Fast forward to this spring, and the Yankees are coming off an ALCS appearance thanks largely to those prospects. Players like Aaron Judge, Chad Green, and Jordan Montgomery graduated to the big leagues last year and became key contributors. Others like Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Blake Rutherford were used as trade chips to land impact big leaguers with multiple years of control.

The Yankees were able to turn that highly regarded farm system into an enviable big league core, and, best of all, the farm system still ranks among the best in baseball. Look where the various scouting publications ranked the system this spring:

Baseball America: 2nd (behind the Braves)
Baseball Prospectus: 4th (behind the Padres, Phillies, Braves)
Keith Law: 2nd (behind the Braves)
MLB.com: 2nd (behind the Braves)

That is the good stuff. According to Baseball America, the Dodgers have the second best farm system among 2017 postseason teams. They ranked their system eighth. The Yankees have a top prospect pipeline on par with hard-tankers like the Padres and Braves and White Sox, except the Yankees are not tanking. They contended last year and there is every reason to believe they’ll contend again this year. Let’s preview the year ahead in the minors.

Top Prospects Who Could Help In 2018

Before the Brandon Drury trade and Neil Walker signing, the Yankees brought three top prospect infielders to Spring Training and ostensibly gave them a chance to win the big league second and third base openings. IF Tyler Wade was able to win a big league job anyway. 3B Miguel Andujar and IF Gleyber Torres will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton for the time being. They’ll be up soon enough. Here’s our season preview for Andujar, Torres, and Wade.

Aside from the kid infielders, the top prospect most likely to help the Yankees this summer is RHP Chance Adams, a divisive prospect who doesn’t necessarily receive the greatest reviews from scouts despite stellar minor league numbers. Adams had another strong minor league season last year, throwing 150.1 innings with 2.45 ERA (3.70 FIP) at Double-A and Triple-A. Spring Training didn’t go so well (4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 HR), but whatever, it happens.

Larry Rothschild recently told Brendan Kuty that Adams’ arm strength wasn’t quite where the Yankees hoped it would be this spring, and hopefully that’s just a “he threw by far the most innings of his career last year and is taking a little longer to get to full strength than expected” thing and not a “he’s out of shape” or “he’s hiding an injury” thing. “He has a pretty good track record, so we’re not too concerned,” said minor league pitching coordinator Danny Borrell to Kuty.

Either way, Adams will begin the season back with Triple-A Scranton, and it stands to reason he will be among the top call-up options when a starter is needed. Domingo German and Luis Cessa have big league time and are on the 40-man roster, but if Adams performs and gets his arm strength to where it needs to be, the Yankees will give him a shot. They’ll go with whoever they believe gives them the best chance to win, and if they think it’s Adams, he’ll get the call.

Top Prospects Who (Probably) Won’t Help In 2018

Never say never, but it seems likely to me LHP Justus Sheffield, the top pitching prospect in the system, will spend the year in the minors after being limited to 98 innings by an oblique injury last season. Sheffield showed the goods in Spring Training (mid-90s fastball and wipeout slider) and also showed the warts (lack of command) as well. Still, as a power southpaw with three pitches (he also has a pretty good changeup), Sheffield is rightfully considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. If he helps the Yankees at all in 2018, it’ll be late in the season.

OF Estevan Florial, who some rank as the second best prospect in the system behind Gleyber, almost certainly will not reach the big leagues this season. Florial turned 20 in November and he has played only 19 games at High-A. More High-A time and a midseason promotion to Double-A is in the cards this year. Maybe a late-season stint at Triple-A. Maybe. Florial hit .219/.324/.406 this spring and impressed everyone with his athleticism and raw tools. From Bryan Hoch:

“He’s one of those guys that I’m really excited to see these first couple of weeks, because he’s going to get some opportunities to play,” (Aaron) Boone said. “He’s going to log some at-bats. We just want to get him as comfortable as possible. When we see him do that, even though that [triple] was the first one, it’s not a surprise to us. The talent is real.”

As with Sheffield (command), Florial has a flaw in his game that keeps him from being a truly elite prospect. He has problems making contact. His 31.1% strikeout rate last season was 29th highest among the 743 minor leaguers with at least 400 plate appearances, and Florial has the most trouble with non-fastballs. Double-A caliber arms gave him fits in the Arizona Fall League. Florial didn’t play a ton of baseball growing up and the Yankees hope he’ll make more contact as he gains experience. We’ll keep track of that in the Prospect Watch this year.

In RHP Dillon Tate, the Yankees have a former high draft pick (fourth overall in 2015) who didn’t quite take to some mechanical issues the Rangers tried to implement, but has since rebuilt prospect stock after being told by the Yankees to go back to whatever worked in college. He was slowed by a shoulder issue last year but he did reach Double-A by the end of the season, so I guess that makes him a call-up candidate this year. I think there might be a few too many names ahead of him on the depth chart. The Yankees are having Tate work on a two-seam fastball at the moment, a pitch that could be a real difference-maker for him.

RHP Albert Abreu and RHP Freicer Perez are two ultra-talented Single-A kids who we’re not going to see this year. (Abreu has been slowed by an appendectomy and will probably start the season on the disabled list anyway.) Perez really broke out last year — he had a 2.12 ERA (3.19 FIP) with 25.3% strikeouts in his final 18 starts and 101.2 innings last summer — and is poised to be the next great Yankees pitching prospect. Abreu battled injury problems last year but has a golden arm. These two are a Big Deal now and they’ll be a Very Big Deal next spring.

Secondary Prospects Likely To Help In 2018

Top prospects get all the attention and understandably so, but turning secondary prospects into regulars is often what separates good teams from great teams. Look what Green and Montgomery did for the Yankees last year. They were nowhere near any top prospect lists, yet both played very important roles for a postseason team.

This season the Yankees have several depth pitching prospects who figure to see MLB time, most notably RHP Domingo German, the presumed sixth starter at the moment. RHP Gio Gallegos, RHP Ben Heller, and RHP Jonathan Holder are all going to get bullpen time at some point. You watch. OF/1B Billy McKinney figures to spend the season as an up-and-down bat. They’re all covered in our depth pitchers and depth position players previews.

IF Thairo Estrada was expected to be in the infield mix before the Drury and Walker trades, and while he always felt like a long shot for a big league job, he was removed from the competition before it even started. Estrada was shot in the hip during a botched robbery in January and he did not play at all this spring. The good news is he has resumed working out and other baseball activities, but Thairo won’t start the regular season on time. He’s on the 40-man roster and we could see him later in the season.

Also on the 40-man: RHP Domingo Acevedo. He spent most of last season at Double-A and that makes him a call-up candidate. That said, Acevedo was shut down late last year with a shoulder problem, and his rehab delayed the start of his offseason throwing problem. He spent Spring Training building arm strength and may not be ready to pitch come minor league Opening Day. Still, Acevedo is on the 40-man, he’s a big power arm, and spot duty in the big leagues could be in the cards this season.

Among non-40-man players, RHP Cody Carroll and RHP Brady Lail stand out as potential bullpen options at some point, a la Caleb Smith and Tyler Webb last year. Those “huh, didn’t think we’d see him this year” guys. Carroll is arguably the top bullpen prospect in the system and he can really bring it, with an upper-90s fastball and a good slider. Lail is moving to the bullpen full-time this year and he could sneak on to the MLB roster at some point. There’s always one or two surprise call-ups each year. I’d bet on Lail being one in 2018.

Breakout Candidates

The Yankees have a deep farm system, especially with lower level arms, and that means they have plenty of breakout candidates. The best of the bunch is RHP Luis Medina, an 18-year-old with a triple digit fastball and two knockout secondary pitches (curveball and changeup). Can he figure out command? Maybe! If he does, Medina will be a no-doubt top 100 prospect at this time next year. Maybe even top 50.

A case can be made RHP Jonathan Loaisiga broke out last season, but he did only throw 32 innings, so I’m including him here. Johnny Lasagna is finally healthy after years of injuries and he goes out to the mound with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and fearlessly pounds the zone. The Yankees like Loaisiga enough that they put him on the 40-man over the winter, and if he stays healthy and pitches a full season, he could rank among the top prospects in the system by the end of the year.

3B Dermis Garcia and OF Canaan Smith are two bat first prospects with power — in Garcia’s case, it’s mammoth power that grades as a true 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale — and plate discipline, so while they have a high bar to clear to be considered top prospects, they have the talent to reach that level, Dermis in particular. SS Hoy Jun Park has tremendous tools and, now that he has a few years of minor league experience under his belt, this could be the season he really starts to take off.

The deep sleepers are RHP Deivi Garcia, a short controlled challenged righty with a hellacious curveball, RHP Juan Then, a just turned 18-year-old righty with pitching know-how well beyond his years, and C Saul Torres, a standout defensive catcher with much more offensive potential than last year’s .174/.230/.309 (45 wRC+) rookie ball batting line would lead you to believe. Also, RHP Clarke Schmidt is due back from Tommy John surgery. He’s not a traditional breakout candidate, but a healthy return will see his prospect stock rise considerably.

Prospects I Am Irrationally Excited About

We all have our personal favorites. Among mine is IF Kyle Holder, a slick-fielding shortstop who might not hit long-term, though he did put up a .355/.400/.458 (154 wRC+) batting line in his final 51 games last season. His glove alone gives him a chance to play in the big leagues. I think there’s enough left-handed contact ability there for him to be a regular on a second division team down the road, and that makes him a likely trade chip for the Yankees.

RHP Trevor Stephen has vicious stuff and may be best suited for a bullpen role long-term. The Yankees are going to use him as a starter for the time being because of course they should. If they ever move him to the bullpen, Stephan could rocket to MLB. Same with RHP Nick Nelson, who didn’t start pitching full-time until turning pro as a fourth round pick in 2016. He has a mid-90s fastball and the type of swing-and-miss curveball that could carry a pitcher a long way.

Other like OF Isiah Gilliam, a switch-hitting outfielder with power, and IF Diego Castillo, a contact-oriented hitter with strong defensive chops, are among my personal favorites. I’m also very interested to see what RHP Matt Sauer does in his first full pro season. He’s probably going to start 2018 back in Extended Spring Training — same with Medina and Then — meaning he won’t pitch in actual games until the short season leagues begin in June, but that’s okay. Still count him among guys I’m looking forward to seeing this year.

Will The Yankees Trade Any Of These Guys?

Of course they will. When you have a deep farm system, you have a 40-man roster crunch, and that applies to the Yankees again this year. Last year Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects Ian Clarkin and Zack Littell were traded before having to be added to the 40-man roster. Other fringe 40-man roster guys like Garrett Cooper, Caleb Smith, Nick Rumbelow, and Ronald Herrera were traded for prospects years away from Rule 5 Draft eligibility.

Among the notable prospects who will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season are Hoy Jun Park, Kyle Holder, Diego Castillo, and Dermis Garcia. I could see the Yankees dangling all of them as trade bait. Guys like Billy McKinney, Gio Gallegos, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, and the Domingos (Acevedo and German) may not be long for the 40-man roster. I could see them being moved in Cooper/Rumbelow/Herrera style trades before the end of the season.

The Yankees declared Torres, Andujar, Sheffield, and Florial off-limits in trade talks over the winter — or at least they did for Gerrit Cole — though I suppose the Walker and Drury pickups could’ve changed things. I imagine Andujar, for example, is more expendable than he was three or four months ago. In that case, the best trade chips in the farm system are Clint Frazier (technically no longer a prospect), Adams, Tate, Abreu, and possibly Andujar.

Where Does The System Go From Here?

The Yankees had a top tier farm system last spring and they have a top tier farm system right now, though the composition of the farm system is much different now than it was a year ago. Last spring the system was built around high-end position players close to the big leagues like Judge, Torres, and Frazier. Now the farm system is built around pitching, especially at the lower levels.

Pitchers are inherently more risky than position players, especially lower level pitchers. Pitchers get hurt, they don’t develop that third pitch, so on and so forth. Because of that, the farm system carries considerably more risk now than it did a year ago. And with the anticipated graduations of Torres, Andujar, and Wade, as well as others like Adams and German, plus any trades, the smart money is on the farm system taking a hit over the next 12 months.

And you know what? That is perfectly fine. When you have a great farm system, the goal is to turn it into a great Major League team, and the Yankees are in the middle of doing that. Baseball America ranked the Cubs’ system first in 2015 and 28th in 2018. Think Theo Epstein and Cubs fans care? Nope. Going from a great system to a bad system because of injuries and poor performance is one thing. Going from a great system to a bad system because all your top prospects became great big leaguers is another. That’s what every team is striving for, and the Yankees are in the process of doing exactly that.

The Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Bullpen Shuttle [2018 Season Preview]

March 26, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Yankees have managed to maintain a stable of major league-ready pitchers on the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre roster for the last several years, and this season is no exception. By the time the official Opening Day roster is announced, it is likely that the team will have at least five pitchers with experience at the highest level heading to or already at Triple-A, where they will bide their time until the need for a fresh arm inevitably arrives. And, while most teams would be satisfied with a bunch of competent arms awaiting the call, the Yankees have more than a bit of upside in their first line of defense.

Luis Cessa

This is Cessa’s third year in the organization and it stands to be his third time as an up-and-down arm, as he was optioned to Triple-A on Friday afternoon. The soon-to-be 26-year-old was less than stellar in four Spring Training starts, pitching to a 6.75 ERA in 9.1 IP, but I suspect that the Yankees were always more comfortable with him staying stretched out in the minors regardless of how he performed in the Grapefruit League. After all, Cessa has a 4.54 ERA in 14 major league starts, and he’s probably the de facto sixth starter … for now.

That being said, Cessa is almost certainly best-suited for the bullpen. While he technically throws four pitches, his fastball and slider are several steps above his curveball and change-up, with the latter two largely profiling as show-me pitches. That’s not a great look for a starter. However, his fastball has averaged just over 95 MPH in his time in the big leagues, and his plus slider has a ridiculous 42.05% whiffs per swing rate (compare that to Chris Sale, whose slider had a 40.32% whiff rate last year). That formula could work wonders in one or two inning bursts.

The real issue with shifting Cessa to the bullpen full-time is the simple fact that the team’s bullpen is already ridiculously deep, and this group of Triple-A arms includes two or three pitchers that are exclusively relievers. Shifting Cessa to the bullpen may be the right move to maximize his value in an individual sense, but keeping him stretched out to provide insurance for the rotation makes a bit more sense for the team as-is. This could all change, however, depending on the performance of Domingo Acevedo, Chance Adams, and Justus Sheffield – so this bears watching.

Giovanny Gallegos

Gallegos built a reputation for stingy walk rates and surprising strikeout rates through five-plus seasons in the Yankees organization, and seemed destined to ride the shuttle in 2017 as a result. And he did just that, bouncing between Triple-A and the majors seven times last year. He was dominant at Triple-A (43.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 14.3 K/9), but pedestrian at-best in the bigs, pitching to a 4.87 ERA (94 ERA+) in 20.1 IP across 16 appearances. The peripherals were there in many ways, as racked up 22 strikeouts against just 5 walks, but his paltry 35.6% groundball rate was not conducive to keeping the ball in the park.

One of the interesting things about Gallegos’s time with the Yankees is that he was almost exclusively shelled when being caught by Austin Romine. He pitched to a 9.95 ERA and allowed all 3 of his home runs in the 6.1 innings caught by Romine, and a 2.57 ERA in the 14 innings thrown to Gary Sanchez and Erik Kratz. That almost certainly means a whole lot of nothing, but it caught my attention nevertheless.

Gallegos doesn’t have the upside to be much more than a solid middle reliever, and he’s likely to be used in that capacity if and when he is called up. His demonstrated ability to pitch more than an inning per appearance doesn’t hurt, either.

Domingo German

If Cessa isn’t the sixth starter right now, it’s because the 25-year-old German is simply too darn good to overlook. German missed all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, and tossed just 49.2 IP between Charleston and Tampa upon returning in 2016. They were excellent innings, though (3.08 ERA/3.44 FIP), and the Yankees took the training wheels off in 2017, allowing him to throw 109.1 IP between Trenton and Scranton, and another 14.1 in the majors. And, once again, German excelled, pitching to a 2.88 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in the minors, and a 3.14 ERA (147 ERA+) and 11.3 K/9 for the Yankees. To cap it off, he had a 2.30 ERA in 15.2 spring IP before being sent down on Saturday.

Well, saying that he excelled in the majors might be a bit misleading. The run prevention, strikeouts, and groundball rate (54.5%) were all great; the 5.7 BB/9, not so much. It’s not too shocking that a pitcher with German’s stuff would struggle to find the zone at times, and 14.1 IP is a small sample size – but it was the lone blemish on an otherwise brilliant overall season. It’s something to keep an eye on going forward, though his 2.7 BB/9 mark in the minors for his career suggests that there’s better control to come.

As is the case with Cessa, German has mostly been a starter in the minors. 19 of his 20 minor league appearances last year were starts, as were all of his games in 2016. And the Yankees kept him stretched out in the majors last year, as those 14.1 IP were spread across 7 games. German has more upside than Cessa as a starter, though, as he has three pitches that profile as at least fringe-average offerings, in his 95-plus MPH fastball, upper-80s change-up, and low-80s curveball. And that curveball had a 53.57% whiff rate last year, so he may well have more upside as a reliever, too.

If I were the Yankees, German would be my sixth starter. And I suspect they’ll allow him to earn that opportunity when the need arises.

Ben Heller

If you were to create a player that was the statistical norm for a right-handed relief pitcher, you may well wind up with Heller. The 26-year-old checks in at 6’3″ and 205 pounds, and sports a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and a low-to-mid 80s slider that is nearly unhittable when it’s right. In fact, his slider has a 54.28% whiff rate in his 18 IP at the highest level. And that sort of one-two punch is what dozens of relievers have made a successful career of.

Heller is back by his control, though. He has walked 10 batters in those 18 innings, and he’s walked 3.6 per 9 in his minor league career. Control has never been his strong suit, but his stuff could bail him out in the minors – that won’t work so well against big league hitters. Spring training stats may not mean much, but seeing him walk just 3 batters in 11.1 IP thus far is a good sign – particularly when it’s still coupled with a healthy 16 strikeouts.

Heller’s premium stuff might have him a tick above Gallegos on the depth chart, but the Yankees aren’t too likely to trust him as anything more than an up-and-down guy until he shows that he can throw strikes with consistency. If he does do that, though, he could be Tommy Kahnle 2.0 – and I don’t think that’s terribly farfetched.

Jonathan Holder

Holder was named to the Yankees Opening Day roster on Saturday, and it’s not too difficult to see why. He pitched to a 3.89 ERA (117 ERA+) with 1.8 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 39.1 IP for the Yankees last year, and he was excellent in Spring Training. Holder might not have the most upside on this list, but he may well be the safest bet to be the placeholder for the shuttle to open the season. And, make no mistake, he’s a placeholder for the time being, profiling as the eighth reliever in lieu of a true back-up outfielder until Jacoby Ellsbury comes off of the disabled list.

That doesn’t mean that Holder’s anything less than competent, though. He lacks high-end stuff, but he has three solid offerings in his low-90s fastball, high-80s cutter, and mid-70s curveball, and he commands everything well. And, unlike the other arms at Triple-A, he’s demonstrated that he can ply his craft in the majors for a fairly long period of time. That may not be exciting, but it’s important.

Holder’s upside, however, may be limited by his struggles against LHH. Lefties hit .351/.439/.528 against him last year, which is terrifying. That’s not in-line with his cup of coffee in 2016 or his time in the minors, but it’s disconcerting nonetheless – especially in Yankee Stadium. And he uses his cutter in place of a change-up, and it’s not a swing-and-miss pitch. So while Holder may be the safest bet here to hold down the middle innings, his upside is something of a question.

The Triple-A Bench Depth [2018 Season Preview]

March 26, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Yankees have a great deal of depth throughout their organization at this point, and that includes the 25-man roster, MLB-ready players (be it those that are no longer rookie-eligible, or those that aren’t considered top prospects), and top prospects that are expected to knock on the door in short order. The middle tier of that group has shifted considerably over the off-season, as the team made trades (Giancarlo Stanton and Brandon Drury) and signed free agents (Neil Walker, specifically), but it has come into focus as we rapidly approach Opening Day. And it is those players that I’ll dig into a bit today.

Tyler Austin

A month ago, it seemed as though Austin had a spot on the Yankees roster locked-up; or, alternatively, that he had an incredibly strong inside track to a spot on the major-league roster. His ability to play first base and right-handed power made him an ideal back-up for and/or complement to Greg Bird, and the team didn’t have another player of that ilk sitting around. As long as he stayed healthy throughout the Spring (never a given with Austin), he had a good shot at making the cut.

And then they traded for Brandon Drury. It was a move that would give the Yankees depth at second and third, and therefore not necessarily a move that would impede Austin’s path to the roster – but Drury is almost a year younger than Austin, offers a similar (and more proven) offensive skill-set, and has experience at all four corners, second base, and shortstop. In the event that Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres made the team, it was clear that Austin would end up the odd-man out. That didn’t happen, as Andujar and Torres were not long for the team, so the chance was still there.

And then they signed the aforementioned Walker. And with that their starters at second and third could both fill-in at first base, and Austin’s lack of versatility within the infield spelled the end of his opportunity – for now, at least.

Austin, despite never having an extended run with the Yankees, is a known commodity at this point. He has raked at Triple-A in back-to-back seasons (.323/.415/.637, 201 wRC+ in 234 PA in 2016, .275/.342/.544, 143 wRC+ in 190 PA in 2017), but that hasn’t translated all that well to the majors yet (.236/.294/.447, 94 wRC+ in 136 PA). And, despite his ability to stand in outfield, he only play out there in an emergency.

If Austin ends up playing a significant role for the team this year, it will almost certainly be due to something happening to Bird, be it an injury or an extended stretch of awful performance. (Sure enough, Bird is hurt already.) And if Andujar and/or Torres end up forcing the issue, his place on the depth chart could become even more tenuous due to his lack of versatility.

Clint Frazier

The last few months have not been terribly kind to Frazier. His place within the organization was thrown into question with the acquisition of Stanton, and he subsequently spent the rest of the Winter being involved in whatever trade rumors were floated for the litany of starting pitchers that are/were/could have been on the market. And then he cut off his luscious locks to curb any potential issues with the team’s grooming policy, which is a throwback to the stupidity of last off-season’s news cycle – which is a non-issue, really, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention it.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, Frazier was concussed as a result of crashing into the outfield wall in Spring Training. He hasn’t played since February 24 as a result, and he may well open the season on the disabled list. The the first few weeks his recovery were downright frightening (a concussion is a brain injury, after all), and his progress is best-described as slow and steady.

With the possible exception of his injuries – an oblique injury shortly after his call-up last year and the concussion – Frazier’s stock remains largely unchanged. He was a consensus top-forty prospect heading into last season, he hit well at Triple-A (.256/.344/.473, 123 wRC+ – a notable improvement over his 88 wRC+ there in 2016), and flashed his potential in 39 games with the Yankees. The ridiculous bat speed, prodigious raw power, and 80-grade hustle were on display every step of the way, too. And he’ll spend most of the season as a 23-year-old, too, so there’s no reason to think that his stock is slipping. If and when he recovers from his concussion, it’ll be a matter of opportunity (or lack thereof) more than anything else.

Frazier’s role with the team is going to be up in the air for some time, but I think he’s much closer to the starting lineup than one might expect. A healthy Jacoby Ellsbury would have an edge on a bench spot, but if an opportunity arose for a starting role (meaning an injury, or maybe regression from Aaron Hicks) I think Frazier would leapfrog him for the regular playing time. Regardless of Frazier’s future with the team, I think it would behoove the Yankees to keep him playing regularly at some level, rather than sitting on a bench.

Kyle Higashioka

This is Higashioka’s eleventh year in the Yankees organization, and that does not quite capture how long his road to the show has been. His defense has long been considered at least solid-average, and there was always some hope that his bat would develop. He flashed a strong hit tool and a strong approach throughout his minor league career, and there were rumblings of above-average raw power, too. Unfortunately, assorted injuries and a Tommy John surgery sidelined Higashioka for most of 2012 and nearly all of 2013 and 2014, and he looked like a non-prospect when he returned in 2015.

And then he went out and hit .276/.337/.511 in 416 PA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. And when Gary Sanchez went down with an injury in the first week of the 2017 season, some felt that he should be the Yankees starting catcher. That didn’t happen, though, and his .000/.100/.000 slash line in 20 PA as Romine’s back-up didn’t give us any reason to continue to argue otherwise.

Higashioka went back down to the minors when Sanchez returned, and promptly suffered a back injury. He ended up playing in just 30 games between the minors and majors last season, and his durability is once again at the forefront of his profile. If there’s any silver lining, it might be that he hit .338/.390/.797 in the minors … but that was in all of 82 PA.

The soon-to-be 28-year-old Higashioka is healthy and hitting in Spring Training, which is a good sign. I believe that he’ll be the first catcher up should the need arise, but that’s predicated upon him staying healthy – which is far from a guarantee.

Erik Kratz

Do you feel the excitement in your bones? Kratz is included here largely because of the injury issues that have plagued Higashioka. He earned the call over a healthy Higashioka when the rosters expanded in September, as well, so maybe there’s even something more to it.

Beyond that, Kratz is a prototypical journeyman catcher. He can’t hit (his 1.000/1.000/1.500 line in 2 PA with the Yankees notwithstanding), but he’s a good defensive catcher that grades out well in framing, blocking, and controlling the running game. Seeing him on the roster before September wouldn’t be a good sign, but he’s a competent hand.

Billy McKinney

The injuries to Ellsbury and Frazier may well make McKinney an Opening Day bench piece by the time that you read this, but he fits here as this is being written.

McKinney was regarded something of a throw-in in the Aroldis Chapman trade that netted Gleyber Torres, but he was always a bit more than that. He was a consensus top-100 prospect heading into 2015 and 2016, and he had a first-round pick pedigree. He struggled mightily in 2016, though, slashing just .246/.342/.338 in Double-A and, as a bat-first (or bat-only) prospect, that wasn’t a good sign. He was nevertheless worth the flier, as someone that had been lauded for above-average grades in his hit tool, power, and approach.

His inclusion in the trade paid dividends in 2017, as McKinney performed decently at Double-A (.250/.339/.431, 110 wRC+ in 276 PA), and brilliantly at Triple-A (.306/.336/.541, 140 wRC+ in 224 PA), before closing out the season with a solid effort in the Arizona Fall League. There were some less than enthusing underlying numbers, such as a 4.0% walk rate in Triple-A – but a “throw-in” prospect hitting that well on the whole is a boon. And he was added to the 40-man roster in November as a result.

McKinney played the outfield exclusively prior to playing first base in the Arizona Fall League, and was generally regarded as passable as a corner outfielder. He has continued to play first in Spring Training, and the reviews are generally okay. He’s still a work in progress, but he’s far from a disaster there. And, given his relative inexperience there, that’s a good sign. His strange but productive .179/.410/.607 line in Spring Training isn’t bad, either.

Were it not for injuries to Ellsbury and Frazier, I’d expect McKinney to spend the vast majority of the year in Triple-A (or in another organization). There’s a real opportunity for him now, though, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up on the big league roster until those two were deemed healthy; and, in Ellsbury’s case, I’m sure the Yankees will take their time with those evaluations. Whether or not that turns into a genuine opportunity is unlikely for the time being, but it’s not entirely out of the question.

Jace Peterson

A tiny picture for a small role. (MLB.com)

Peterson was signed in back in January, and there hasn’t been all that much discussion about him since. He was picked-up to be a depth piece behind or alongside Tyler Wade and Ronald Torreyes, but there was never a chance that he would be anything more than a bench player. And with the trade for Drury and the signing of Walker, the odds of Peterson playing a role with the big club this year are dependent upon several things going wrong.

It’s worth noting, I suppose, that Peterson has spent time at all four infield and all three outfield spots in his big league career (even though he grades out poorly at most of them), so he could be the emergency option in plenty of ways should that opportunity arise. That’s essentially the role that Wade will play this year, though, and the versatility of Drury and Walker further abrogates the need for that sort of player anyway. He’s basically the Donovan Solano replacement, albeit with way more hurdles in his path.

The Bench Players [2018 Season Preview]

March 23, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Once upon a time bench players only played when someone got hurt. They were the “we don’t want to actually play these guys, but we need backups for emergencies” players. Now teams build their benches strategically and look to maximize roster spots. Roster spots are a finite resource. The more production you can squeeze out of them, the better.

The Yankees’ bench was a bit unsettled coming into the spring, though things have been sorted out these last few weeks, and now it is pretty obvious who the reserve players will be come Opening Day. Tyler Wade (season preview) has made the team and there’s a chance he’ll actually start at second rather than be a bench player. Jacoby Ellsbury (season preview) will also be on the bench once he returns from his oblique injury. Let’s preview the rest of the bench.

The Late Roster Addition

On March 12th the Yankees took advantage of the slow free agent market and signed Neil Walker to a one-year contract worth only $4M guaranteed. He can earn another $500,000 in plate appearance based incentives, which isn’t much at all. Walker is not a $4M (or $4.5M) player. He’s coming off a .265/.362/.439 (114 wRC+) batting line with the Mets and Brewers last year and he’s been no worse than a +2 WAR players in each of the last seven seasons.

Aaron Boone has not committed to a full-time second baseman, instead indicating it could be matchup based. Wade is a left-handed hitter and Walker is a switch-hitter who has been quite a bit better against righties than lefties in recent years, so a straight platoon wouldn’t make much sense. I reckon this will be one of those “this will sort itself out” situations. Soon enough either Wade or Walker will emerge as the full-time second baseman with their play.

“Look, his track record speaks for itself, but I wouldn’t say he’s coming in here as (the starter at second base),” said Boone to Randy Miller after the Walker signing. “You’re going to see him in some games there obviously, but we feel like we have other good options as well. We just feel like he adds to our versatility and our matchup capabilities. We got better.”

Walker has played some first and third bases this spring — he did that last year as well — and signs point to him doing the same during the regular season. “I’d love him to see him be that guy if we want to give (Greg) Bird a day. Especially with Wade’s ability to move around, it will be interesting to see the moving parts. It should give us versatility and keep us fresh,” said Boone to Dan Martin. Walker has said he’s willing to play wherever, so that’s good. Buy-in from the player is important.

Although there is no defined path to playing time for Walker, it seems clear to me he’s going to play quite a bit. Walker has had some injury trouble in recent years, most notably with his back, and the Yankees may be looking at him as more of a 120-game player than a 150-game player. Even without that defined role, there should be a way to get him 400-something at-bats this year. Maybe Brandon Drury sits against a tough righty and Walker mans the hot corner?

Ultimately, the Yankees signed Walker because the deal was simply too good to pass up. Wade has had a great spring and we’re all excited for Gleyber Torres, but the fact of the matter is neither is proven at the MLB level yet, and the Yankees want to win the World Series this year. Walker is second base insurance in case the kids flame out and a high-end part-time player if the kids do pan out. I think he’s going to play and play a lot, and based on his track record, Walker is going to be a solid contributor for a bargain price this year.

Big Toe

Between Wade’s big spring and the Walker signing, there’s been a “Ronald Torreyes might not make the team” narrative floating around our comments and on social media, and I don’t get it at all. I get that carrying Wade makes Torreyes a bit redundant, but the infield is far from settled, and his main competition for a roster spot is … Tyler Austin? Billy McKinney? Not the stiffest competition, you know?

It seems to me the Yankees like Torreyes and value him for exactly what he is: A good utility infielder. Not a potential starter. He’s a good utility guy. Torreyes is a high-energy player who makes lots of contact, can play all over the infield and handle himself defensively, doesn’t need regular at-bats to produce, and won’t kill you if an injury presses him into everyday duty. And his teammates love him. That’s a nice little bonus. Almost all utility infielders stink. Torreyes is better than most of them.

Last year injuries to Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro — as well as seemingly being a Joe Girardi favorite — meant Torreyes appeared in 108 games and received 336 plate appearances. I don’t think he’ll play that much again. I hope he doesn’t play that much again. Whenever a starting infielder sits, either Wade or Walker figures to be first in line to start, but there are still going to be opportunities for Torreyes to play. He’s the bench guy who might go two weeks between starts and I am totally cool with Torreyes being that guy and not, say, Wade or Torres or McKinney.

I do agree the writing is on the wall for Torreyes. He may not be long for the organization with Wade and Torres and Miguel Andujar (and Thairo Estrada) on the way. But their time is not now. Wade’s had a great spring but who cares. We’ve seen plenty of guys have great springs and do nothing in the regular season. Torres (coming back from injury) and Andujar (defense) are in Triple-A for specific reasons. Torreyes might be a better MLB player than all of them at this very moment in time. And until the kids prove to the be better options, Torreyes will stay on the roster.

Defending Romine

The Yankees opted not to find a new backup catcher this offseason, meaning Austin Romine will once again back up Gary Sanchez this season. On paper, it’s hard to find something Romine does well. He hit .218/.272/.293 (49 wRC+) last season and he threw out only three of 29 basestealers. His pitch-framing numbers are below-average. He’s better at blocking balls in the dirt than Sanchez, but that doesn’t mean much.

And yet, Romine remains, essentially unchallenged for the job as well. Kyle Higashioka and Erik Kratz are the backup catcher alternatives and neither seemed to be given much of a chance at the job this spring. The Yankees aren’t stupid. They have their reasons for sticking with Romine, and given the eye test and the numbers you and I can look up, those reasons are based on things that happen behind the scenes and/or are immeasurable.

Four things come to mind. One, the Yankees have much better internal catcher defense stats than we do, and they say Romine is a quality defender. Two, the pitching staff likes throwing to him. CC Sabathia has praised Romine for his game-calling over the years and Sabathia presumably carries a lot of clout in the organization. Three, his teammates like him and he’s good in the clubhouse. And four, he’s tough as nails. Romine seems to take a beating every time he catches, and of course he stood up to Miguel Cabrera during the brawl in Detroit last year. I know his teammates appreciated that.

By and large, backup catchers are terrible. The league average catcher hit .245/.315/.406 (89 wRC+) last year, which means backups were way under that. Romine’s offensive numbers are terrible and he can’t throw at all. But he’s still on the roster. Whatever it is he brings to the table behind the scenes — the way he works with the pitching staff, his toughness, his clubhouse chops, whatever — the Yankees have determined it more than makes up for the bat and throwing. Like it or not, Romine remains the backup backstop.